Category: SP+

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Michigan 42 Illinois 25 – Week 7 Recap

WEEK 7 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 42-25, Michigan by 17 over Illinois
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 15.4 (+1.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 21 (-4)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 7 RECAP @ Illinois

I answered the question I heard most this week consistently. When I heard, “What do you want to see against Illinois?”  I said a clean, fast start on the road.  Be careful what you wish for.  We definitely saw a fast start. Michigan jumped out to a 28-0 lead in the second quarter.  The Wolverines had doubled Illinois’ total yardage at that point. Then the third quarter arrived, and fans remembered suddenly that Michigan still has issues.  I don’t think most of the fan base is going to feel any better after that 42-25 victory over the Illini.

Offensively, there was a clear commitment to running game from the start.   Michigan ran on 66% of their 68 plays. That represents the highest run ratio of 2019.  It seems the offensive line was challenged to steady the struggling offense, and they answered the call.  The 6.5 yards per rush today is nearly a full yard more than the previous high of 5.8 versus MTSU in Week 1.  When we pair that explosiveness with a 56% success rate on run plays, the Wolverines had a clear identity today.  Shea Patterson added 194 yards passing and 4 touchdowns (1 rush).

Reading that text implies that it was a great day for the offense.  Unfortunately, that is not the case. The fumbles continue to plague Michigan. They put it on the deck officially 3 more times today and lost 2.   A fourth fumble by Christian Turner didn’t make the box score because he was ruled down by contact. At a minimum, this offense was more explosive, but fumble-itis still appears to be a potential fatal flaw.

For the defense, Michigan was again dominant for 3 of the 4 quarters of this game.  Coming out of half time, while the offense could not move or hold onto the ball, the defense wore down.  Illinois was on the field for 24 plays in the third quarter, and Michigan only 11. During that stretch and into the fourth quarter, Illinois scored 25 unanswered points and cut the lead to just a field goal.  Finally, multiple senior leaders stepped up and made big plays to save the Wolverines. A strip sack by Jordan Glasgow, another strip sack by Mike Danna evened the turnover margin. That response allowed the offense to take advantage of the short field and create some breathing room.  

Michigan has now completed half the regular season.  I predicted the Wolverines would be 5-1 at this point, but something still feels off.  So far, this season feels like driving a car with the check engine light on, and the smell of burning oil in the air.  We are still moving forward toward the destination, but there is an ominous feeling that this thing could blow up at any moment.  The coming week is absolutely gigantic, and will be pivotal for the 2019 season. This staff and these players must get under the hood and tighten up all the loose connections and seal the leaks.  These Wolverines will need all systems functional to have any chance against Penn State. Once we get to the White Out on Saturday night, Michigan must press the gas pedal to the floor and pray for the best.   

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By the Numbers: Week 7 @ Illinois

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan powered through Iowa in a 10-3 defensive struggle.  Some questions were answered on defense, but many remain for the offensive staff.

NEXT UP: @ Illinois: 71st, -0.3

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 15.4, Michigan Win Probability 81%
The Wolverines are back into a spot where only under-performance against the Illini will garner any attention.  If they manage to win by 3+ scores, the caveats will lead every conversation.

Michigan Offense (66th) vs. Illinois Defense (82nd) 
Josh Gattis gets a second opportunity for a “get right game”.  This Illinois defense currently ranks twelve spots behind the Rutgers unit that gave up 52 points in the Big House.  I expect this week’s offensive strategy to mirror what we saw against the Scarlet Knights. Shea Patterson will be moving out of the pocket and the Big 3 receivers will be mixing and matching on a handful of downfield route combos.  Michigan will attempt to run only a handful of play types out of multiple formations and personnel groupings. The challenge will be to execute plays consecutively. I’d like to see a very specific script in the first quarter that let’s each play maker touch the ball at least once.  The concepts that work should come back in the second quarter forward.

Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Illinois Offense (54th)
Illinois’ offensive coordinator, Rod Smith, just watched Don Brown flood Iowa’s backfield with varying blitz packages to rattle Nate Stanley.  How will the Illini adjust to what they’ve seen on tape? I expect to see max protection packages on the majority of snaps. That means limited short route combinations that require a quick release.  And if Brandon Peters cannot play in this game, then Smith will try to use the legs of either freshman QB Isiah Williams or freshman QB Matt Robinson to flee from Aidan Hutchinson and Kwity Paye (Salt & Pepper). I cannot envision a scenario where Illinois can march down the field on sustained drives.  To make any impact on the scoreboard, the Illini will need explosive plays or turnovers from their defense to play on a short field.

PREDICTION: Illinois’ offense was ranked 54th in SP+ in the preseason and are still right in that spot.  However, the previous five games were started by Brandon Peters. Don Brown’s group will be teeing off this week.  For Michigan, the real challenge of this game is getting off to a quick start on the road. In 2018 Michigan averaged minus-7 to the SP+ projection in road games.  I still have to see the Wolverines respond effectively to adversity on the road before I can predict success ahead of time. I’ll keep my expected offensive prediction from the preseason, but the Illini aren’t going to reach the end zone twice. 
Michigan 27 Illinois 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 27 Illinois 14)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/7/2019), 4-1

  • SP+ Overall: 17th (↓4), 17.6
    • SP+ Offense: 66th (↓18), 28.5
    • SP+ Defense: 2nd (↑4), 11.1
    • SP+ Sp. Teams 37th (↓33) 0.1
  • AP Poll: 16th (↑3), 618
  • Coaches’ Poll: 16th (↑2), 648
  • CFP Rank: N/A
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Michigan 10 Iowa 3 – Week 6 Recap

WEEK 6 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 10-3, Michigan by 7 over Iowa
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 4.0 (+3)
CD Projection: Michigan by 7 (same)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 6 RECAP vs. Iowa

On a classic “Big Ten weather” October day (59º and gray), Michigan and Iowa played a throwback Big Ten style smashmouth game.  The Wolverines were able to hold on and beat the Hawkeyes 10-3 thanks in large part to a swarming defense. Michigan’s offense still appears disjointed most of the time as Shea Patterson struggles to spread the ball around to multiple weapons.  

The defensive staff deserves a ton of credit.  Don Brown’s unit continues to tinker with multiple fronts and coverages in an attempt to confuse the offense.  For today, it was a rousing success. Michigan was able to record 13 tackles for loss and 8 sacks against a Hawkeye squad that had not given up many negative plays through four games.  Within both zone and man coverage schemes, Cam McGrone and Daxton Hill were called upon to handle more issues with crossing routes. Iowa did find minimal success in the short middle passing game, so the tinkering will continue.  Also of concern was an apparent hamstring injury to Kwity Paye. When he left in the third quarter, he had already recorded 2.5 sacks.  

On the other side of the ball, the offensive staff is still searching for rhythm and consistency.  Michigan only managed 267 total yards and two first-half scores. Shea Patterson went 14-26 for 147 yards while rushing 7 times for 25 yards.  The only Michigan touchdown came from Zach Charbonnet in the first quarter. Charbonnet was the leading rusher on the day with 42 yards. Michigan accumulated 120 yards total rushing.  Going forward, Josh Gattis still needs to identify the core plays that he can script to get the passing game into rhythm. It was encouraging to see the QB read option and arc play return to the arsenal.  

This game was important to show that this team can play a tough physical game and hold up.  After getting decimated by Wisconsin, the Wolverines welcomed senior Mike Dwumfour back to the defensive line for today.  Also, it appears that Cam McGrone may be a budding star in the middle of the defense. When the dust settled, Michigan won because they were able to avoid making big mistakes.  Iowa was saddled with penalties and turnovers, especially in the second half.

Finally, it will be absolutely critical to correct the kicking game. Both kickers missed field goal attempts.  We saw more poor punts than good ones from Will Hart. Also, this team and program still need to prove they can come up with a good performance on the road. Jim Harbaugh has a big challenge in front of him to get all three phases working smoothly away from the Big House for the next two weeks.  Onward!

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By the Numbers: Week 6 vs. Iowa

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines trounced Rutgers and kicked off the search to replace Chris Ash as head coach in Piscataway.

NEXT UP: vs. Iowa: 20th, 17.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 4.0, Michigan Win Probability 59%
Michigan finds themselves seven spots in front of the Hawkeyes in overall SP+ rankings.  However the margin has come down from 11.6 in the preseason to 4.0 in week six.

Michigan Offense (48th) vs. Iowa Defense (22nd)
The key question we need to see answered is whether or not Michigan will be able to run the ball successfully against a solid defense. Iowa has yet to give up 100 yards on the ground through their first four games. The only Power 5 opponent, Iowa State, did manage 4.8 yards per rush. That gives me reason for optimism that the Wolverines offensive line will have a fine day. I’ll be keeping an eye on the Shea Patterson’s role in the run game. It would be a major addition to the #SpeedInSpace concept to make the Hawkeye defense account for the QB as a run threat. Michigan may still be wary of Shea taking additional hits after he finally looked healthy and comfortable last week versus Rutgers. If he is not utilizing the QB rushing the ball on the read option, then Josh Gattis will likely be more focused on keeping Patterson clean in the pocket, or rolling out to ensure he can see his reads clearly downfield.

Michigan Defense (6th) vs. Iowa Offense (30th)
The fear for most Michigan fans is that Iowa will download the Wisconsin offensive road map to gash the Wolverines’ defense. I expect to see a much better performance against the Hawkeyes for a couple reasons. First, the depth at defensive tackle will be greatly improved with Michael Dwumfour available to start. Giving Don Brown the personnel option to put Dwumfour next to Carlo Kemp inside, and allow Kwity Paye and Aiden Hutchinson to stay on the ends is a major improvement over what we saw in Madison. Second, I was encouraged by the week-over-week improvement of Cam McGrone. The defensive game plan against the Badgers expected senior Josh Ross in the middle. The plan with McGrone in the middle against Rutgers looked to better utilize his speed, without requiring him to read and think a great deal on the snap of the ball. I’ll be looking at how often McGrone is sent as a blitzer, requiring upperclassmen Jordan Glasgow Kaleke Hudson, and Josh Uche to read and react more often than McGrone.

PREDICTION: The Hawkeyes’ offense and Michigan’s defense have both moved up the SP+ rankings since preseason. This creates a fascinating strength vs. strength match up. Who can limit the big mistakes when Michigan’s offense takes the field vs. Iowa’s defense? I think both teams will be relatively conservative to eliminate game-changing mistakes. If the Offense vs. Defense phases of the game turn into a wash, then the difference will be special teams where Michigan is ranked 4th in SP+ and Iowa 13th. I expect at least one key big play to come from the return game to go along with a significant field position advantage for the Wolverines.
Michigan 30 Iowa 23 (same as PRESEASON)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/2/2019)

  • SP+ Overall: 13th (↑13), 18.5
    • SP+ Offense: 48th (↑24), 31.8
    • SP+ Defense: 6th (↑6), 13.8
  • AP Poll: 19th (↑1), 350
  • Coaches’ Poll: 18th (↑2), 417
  • CFP Rank: N/A