UMGOBLUE.COM Michigan Wolverine Football & Basketball
By Fans…For Fans Since 1999
Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer resounding 45-14 victory over Notre Dame, preview the Maryland game, and discuss rumors of Jim Harbaugh’s alleged departure.
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LAST WEEK RECAP
The running game clicked on offense, and the defense swarmed as Michigan dominated Notre Dame 45-14. The win will be remembered as Jim Harbaugh’s second over a top 10 team, but SP+ had Notre Dame ranked 19th going in.
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 16.3, Michigan Win Probability 83%
Michigan’s defensive unit ranking continues to climb, currently up to #2 in SP+ rankings. The offense, after an early season drop to #72, has clawed back to 41st against some solid defensive teams. The special teams unit continues to drop, now down another fourteen spots to #80.
Michigan Offense (41st) vs. Maryland Defense (64th)
My calls for patience regarding this offense are starting to look better. If the Wolverines can put together another dominating offensive performance on the road versus an average defense, then I will officially feel vindicated. In the preseason preview I mentioned that SP+ ranked Maryland defense exactly in the middle (65th). As the calendar turns to November the Terps defense is 64th, and gave up 42 points per game in their last three contests (@ Purdue, vs. Indiana, @ Minnesota). I wonder if offensive coordinator Josh Gattis and Jim Harbaugh remember the Terrapins’ head coach making snide comments (“Josh who?”) at Big Ten Media Day regarding his former assistant at Alabama.
Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Maryland Offense (58th)
In 2018, most of us (Michigan fans) were taken by surprise when Ohio State sprung an offensive assault on Don Brown’s defense. The defense’s performance in late season games may have been sending us warning signs. After a tremendous week 8 performance last year in East Lansing, Michigan’s YTD success rate against was 33%. At that point, the defense allowed an average of 3.9 yards per play (YPP), and IsoPPP (Points gained per successful play) was 0.84. I compared those averages to what we saw in those metrics from games #9-12 in 2018 below. Going into Game #9 of the 2019 season, on the road versus an average opponent, the Michigan defense MUST maintain their high level of play and attention to detail. The last thing the Wolverines need is another downward trend through November.
PREDICTION: Michigan’s dominance over Notre Dame made most of us feel better, and I am relieved for that. I started to wonder where my own optimism was coming from after the heartbreak in Happy Valley. Now, going into this road tilt in College Park, I think the pendulum may have swung the other way. The fan base is back to expecting a total blowout, and I am more conservative. Until I see at least one complete performance away from the Big House, it will be tough for me to predict one. I expect this game to feel similar to the Illinois game, with a handful of problems smearing our memory of a multi-score victory.
Michigan 30 Maryland 13 (PRESEASON Michigan 35 Maryland 7)
Final Score: 45-14, Michigan by 31 over Notre Dame
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 4.0 (+27)
CD Projection: Michigan by 3 (+28)
When was the 2019 turnaround, officially? Could it have been the bounce back on the road after Illinois had scored 25 straight points? Was it when Jim Harbaugh proclaimed the Wolverines were entering their “finest hour” after halftime in Happy Valley? The staff continued to send positive signals that this team was close to clicking, even in the toughest times. They finally hit on all cylinders tonight in the Ann Arbor rain versus Notre Dame. Michigan pulverized the Irish 45-14, and it could have been worse.
The offensive unit was led through a driving rain storm by their veteran offensive line. Michigan ended the night with 303 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground. The Notre Dame defense employed a very blitz-heavy strategy, focused on taking away Michigan’s edge runs. The high risk / high reward gambit turned out to be a mistake. Michigan was able to block the blitzing linebackers on the edges, while Hassan Haskins was led up the middle by pulling linemen and tight ends. Haskins finished as Michigan’s leading rusher with 149 yards on 20 carries.
Defensively, I am sure the players and the coaches will be disappointed this game was not another shutout. The Irish were still sporting a goose egg on the scoreboard deep into the third quarter, and were averaging just 1.5 yards per play at the time. On 3rd and 10, Brad Hawkins’ interception was wiped out by a phantom pass interference call against Khaleke Hudson. Five plays later, Notre Dame got onto the board with a well designed tight end throwback pass from Ian Book to Cole Kmet. Don Brown’s swarming defense held Notre Dame to 3.0 yards per play and only a 23% success rate when all was said and done.
Michigan moves to 6-2 on the season, and this rivalry win will help to remove some bad taste from their mouths. Their Big Ten East division chances are on life support with Ohio State’s throttling of Wisconsin and Penn State’s handling of MSU earlier today. Michigan still needs Ohio State to trip up before they come to Ann Arbor, and they need Penn State to lose twice. With that said, the Wolverines showed they are still very engaged in pushing this season to a successful conclusion. This was a dominating victory over a top-ten ranked Notre Dame team that doesn’t play another ranked opponent. In the final four games, Michigan will need to avoid trap games @ Maryland and @ Indiana. These dangerous opponents are lurking in between the remaining rivalry games versus MSU and The Game versus the Buckeyes. Onward to Maryland!
Another slow start cost the Wolverines as they fell short against Penn State, 28-21. There were signs that the offense will indeed continue to grow through the season, but the Nittany Lions won 4 of the 5 SP+ factors.
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 4.0, Michigan Win Probability 59%
Through 3 away games and 4 home games: Michigan is under-performing the SP+ pregame margin projection by 1.3 points at home and by 3.9 points on the road. In 2018, they were +7.9 points at home and -7.1 points on the road.
Michigan Offense (52nd) vs. Notre Dame Defense (35th)
The most encouraging bit from last week in Happy Valley was the continued return to form for the offensive line. Shea Patterson’s success stems directly from the protection improvement. There is still room to grow, as the offense continues to build on plays and concepts that have been successful to this point. The success of Michigan’s short passing game out wide to their talented wide receivers will put pressure on edge defenders. That in turn should continue to widen the running lanes inside for Zach Charbonnet and Hassan Haskins. Notre Dame’s defense started the season ranked 9th in SP+, but has slid down to 35th. The Wolverines’ success versus 12th ranked PSU defense last week should translate at home against the Irish. The question for this week will be whether or not we see the return of explosive plays.
Michigan Defense (4th) vs. Notre Dame Offense (13th)
The evolution of the 2019 Michigan Defense continues. Michigan successfully limited Penn State’s success rate by mixing man-to-man and zone coverages. However, the lack of interior pressure allowed Sean Clifford enough time to exploit coverage breakdowns and mismatches in the Wolverines’ secondary. Notre Dame will pose a similar challenge this Saturday. The Irish consistently develop a strong offensive line, and Ian Book is a more seasoned quarterback than Sean Clifford. As always, Don Brown will anchor his game plan on stopping the Irish running attack. Michigan absolutely must win more one-on-one battles than they lose. That starts up front where Carlo Kemp and Mike Dwumfour will be tasked with pushing the pocket into Book’s face. On the outside, Lavert Hill and Ambry Thomas will need to keep 6’4” senior Chase Claypool from getting behind the defense.
PREDICTION: I don’t expect to see a lot of surprises or new phenomena inside the Big House against Notre Dame. I think we’ll see Michigan’s defense perform well, but still allow 2 or 3 explosive plays in key moments. Offensively, we’ll probably see the Wolverines out-gain the Irish in total yards. The struggles may continue down near the goal line, however. When the dust settles, I think Michigan will narrowly hold on in a nail biter.
Michigan 24 Notre Dame 21 (PRESEASON Michigan 33 Notre Dame 13)
Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer review Michigan’s 28-21 loss to Penn State, how to make referees more accountable, and the next game versus Notre Dame.
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