Final Score: 59-0, Michigan by 59 over UConn SP+ Projection: Michigan by 50.8 (+8.2) CD Projection: Michigan by 45 (+14)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 3 RECAP vs. UConn
This was the third consecutive sharp performance for Michigan in all three phases of the game.
Blake Corum snagged the headline this week with five rushing touchdowns. JJ McCarthy nearly duplicated his performance from a week ago, completing 15 of 18 passes for 214 yards. Probably the most important aspect of this game was a solid performance from Ronnie Bell. Bell had 7 receptions for 96 yards. He still looks very fast and shifty after the catch, and nearly pulled in another one-handed circus catch in the end zone in the first half.
The defense finally got their shutout this week. In the first two games the backups gave up meaningless scores, but today the Wolverines protected the goose egg. Junior Colson and Kris Jenkins led the way with five tackles each. Mike Sainristil continues to flash some greatness after switching to DB from WR. He added three tackles, with one Tackle For Loss (TFL). In total, UConn could only muster 110 total yards for the game, and picked up just six first downs.
The special teams returned to stellar form after a so-so performance last week. AJ Henning cashed in a 61-yard punt return touchdown. This is the first punt return TD since 2018 when Donovan Peoples-Jones found pay dirt. Jay Harbaugh also drew up a punt block, and senior special teams ace Caden Kolesar delivered by getting a hand on the ball.
This team is firing on all cylinders, but all of the weak opponent caveats apply to all three games. Let’s see how the Big House can get rocking when the Maryland Terrapins come into town next weekend to kick off the B1G conference schedule. Onward!
Final Score: 56-10, Michigan by 46 over Hawai’i SP+ Projection: Michigan by 54.6 (-8.6) CD Projection: Michigan by 54 (-8)
FIVE FACTORS (Garbage Time Removed)
GAME 2 RECAP vs. Hawai’i
The story is the QB competition…again. Last week Jim Harbaugh was thrust into the spotlight for criticism of his “unfairness”. This week, people are singing a different tune. In the preseason, and still leading up to this game, my feeling was that Cade would still be the starter in 2022, with an increased role for JJ. Those feelings have changed.
JJ McCarthy truly seized his opportunity to prove he should be the starting QB. McCarthy went 11-12 for 229 yards and three touchdowns. The one incompletion was an inexplicable drop by Ronnie Bell. My questions were all centered around JJ running the full passing playbook, not just the read-option series. He did that today, and looked masterful. With all that said, I expect JJ to start again next week. And, I also expect Cade to get a significant number of snaps to work through the funk he’s in. There will be a role for McNamara on this team. But right now the offense looks much smoother with JJ McCarthy at the helm.
The starters were overpowering again in Week 2, but didn’t fill up the stat sheet in the same way. The Wolverines only collected 1 sack against the Rainbow Warriors, and forced 0 turnovers. However, Hawai’i’s first half drive results were an Iowa fever dream: Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, End of the Half. Well done, Jesse Minter.
Special Teams were surprisingly pedestrian. The “hidden yards” are really hidden deep in a 46-point blowout. But Brad Robbins averaged just 41 yards on four punts. AJ Henning looked explosive on an early 35-yard return, but still seems a little shaky reading the ball in the air and catching the punt before it bounces. I have faith in Jay Harbaugh and the rest of the special teams, and we’ll see AJ Henning as a weapon on punt return more than once this season.
All in all this went according to script. It was a fun game, but never should have gone past the midnight hour. AND, don’t even get me started on skipping the tradition of touching M Club banner in pre-game to save time. That was an unforced error by the admin.
The Wolverines cleared the first hurdle of the 2022 season vs. Colorado State
LAST WEEK RECAP
The defense was dominant, and 84 players logged snaps in Michigan’s season-opening 51-7 romp over Colorado State.
NEXT UP: vs. Hawaii: 128th, -26.0
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 54.6, Michigan Win Probability 100% (rounded) This is the largest SP+ spread I’ve seen since I started tracking in 2018. I don’t think 100% win probability is technically possible, but it must be 99.5% or higher for Connelly’s numbers to round to 100%.
Michigan Offense (6th) vs. Hawaii Defense (130th) There are 131 FBS teams, so the Rainbow Warriors can take solace in being slightly less of a disaster than Florida International on defense. All eyes will be on JJ McCarthy’s performance as he takes his turn to start at QB. The weakness of the Hawaii defense does not figure to give Michigan’s coaching staff a really good read on who is better prepared between McCarthy and Cade McNamara. In week 3, the UConn Huskies bring the 119th SP+ rated defense to Ann Arbor, so please take what we see with the necessary grains of salt.
Michigan Defense (10th) vs. Hawaii Offense (115th) This figures to look a lot like the Wolverines’ dominance of Colorado State. Hawaii is also going to deploy a pass-heavy attack, but without the necessary pass protection up front. For now, Timmy Chang’s air raid offense is appropriately named, but mostly because his quarterback Brayden Schager is going to feel he’s under attack.
PREDICTION: The QB competition will again monopolize the headlines. I am hoping the Michigan crowd can stay positive and encourage both players. In the Big House last Saturday there was a shortage of patience with Cade. The throngs of people are eager to see JJ McCarthy claim the starting job. We’ll see how the sophomore handles the full range of QB duties. I am optimistic that he will show a few flashes of greatness. Michigan 60 Hawaii 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 56 Hawaii 9)
Final Score: 51-7, Michigan by 44 over Colorado State SP+ Projection: Michigan by 31.5 (+12.5) CD Projection: Michigan by 35 (+9)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 1 RECAP vs. Colorado State
I am going to avoid overreaction to the best of my ability. The Michigan defense looked a step ahead of where I expected, but who knows how good the CSU offense is? The offense was effective, but left a little bit to be desired in terms of crisp execution. Special teams were solid as always, and I think I heard a sigh of relief from the Big House faithful when AJ Henning was back deep on punt return instead of Ronnie Bell.
Offensively, we know all the attention will be on the QB race. Cade McNamara got the start and led 8 drives, but JJ McCarthy came in on the 8th drive and scored a rushing touchdown. There were 3 FG drives, 2 punts, & 2 touchdown drives before the McCarthy rushing TD. Today is not enough information to make a decision, but if you had to score this round like a boxing match, I would say JJ 10 Cade 9. There is still a long way to go.
The Wolverines dominated on defense. Michigan racked up 11 tackles for loss, including 7 sacks. The longest drive for the Rams was 7 plays for 33 yards and ended in a turnover on downs as the clock turned to the 4th quarter. The most encouraging piece of this defensive performance is the number of players, especially young players, that got onto the field. That was true even in the first half before garbage time.
Another big thing to remember in 2022 is to be grateful for the special teams excellence that we have in Ann Arbor. Jake Moody pounded every kickoff into a touchback, and both of Brad Robbins’ punts were returned for 0 yards inside the Rams’ 20 yard line. Moody was also 3/3 on field goals. All in all it was a great day to be a Michigan Wolverine. Onward!
Michigan’s offense returns nearly everybody, including Ronnie Bell who led the team in receiving in 2019 & 2020 before suffering an ACL injury in last year’s season opener.
Michigan is looking to follow up on perhaps their best season since the 1997 National Championship. We endured a “will he, won’t he” with Jim Harbaugh and the NFL. We’re also just starting a QB battle between Cade McNamara and JJ McCarthy that threatens to split the fan base in half. But now it’s Labor Day weekend, and that means we kick off the 2022 return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with a game-by-game preview of the 2022 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbersarticles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.
The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system is meant to be predictive for beating the odds against Vegas, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games.
What is SP+
SP+ is the tempo and opponent adjusted college football analytical model developed by Bill Connelly for Football Outsiders (he is now at ESPN). SP+ is based around the core concepts of the Five Factors of winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers. The resulting metric is expressed in adjusted points per game, as compared to the average CFB team.
When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record, and that of the SP+ projections, since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com in 2018.
Connelly’s SP+ preseason projections were amazingly accurate in picking the straight up winners in 2018 & 2019, missing only twice (2018 picked MSU & 2019 picked Michigan over PSU). In 2019, as Connelly updated his model through the season for Game Week projections, SP+ correctly picked the straight up winner in all 13 games for Michigan. Just like almost everything in 2020, college football projections were a total crapshoot, even for the best in the business. In 2021 the SP+ preseason model was off in their preseason evaluation of Michigan, including 1-11 against the spread. That can be forgiven since nearly everyone was surprised by Michigan’s 2021 Championship turnaround.
Like most Michigan fans, I have often been a victim of preseason optimism. The 2018 season was also a painful learning experience while riding too high on the Revenge Tour. While I picked the correct outcome in 10 out of 12 games, I was bad at predicting the margins. That led to a 3-9 inaugural season against the spread. In 2019 I bounced back against the spread to 10-3, and followed up with a 5-1 record in the 2020 COVID season. That one miss in 2020 was my worst ever, in Game #2 vs. MSU. I cooled off a touch in 2021 with an 8-6 record against the spread in my game week predictions.
The Wolverines’ SP+ ranking is in alignment with our preseason expectations. The defense looks like it should be good, but maybe not great. The offense will likely be asked to carry the team multiple times in 2022, particularly in the first half of the season.
2022 Regular Season Schedule
vs. Colorado State: 96th Overall, 109th Offense, 71st Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 31.5
PREDICTION: The weakness of the non-conference slate in 2022 has gotten a lot of publicity as Michigan’s season draws near. Colorado State brings the SP+ 96th ranked team to Ann Arbor, and they are the highest ranked non-con opponents…by ~30 spots. I think the Rams will finish the season much higher than 96th, but this game will see the Wolverines trying to make a statement that last year was no fluke.
Michigan 49 Colorado State 14, 1-0
vs. Hawaii: 123rd Overall, 101st Offense, 129th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 43.1
PREDICTION: It’s tough to make too much out of this mismatch. Hawaii always has an uphill climb with the logistics challenges involved with flying a football team across an ocean for half your season. This season new head coach Timmy Chang will be given plenty of leeway to show what he’s capable of. I expect this Week 2 night game matchup with Michigan to be pretty lopsided for the Wolverines.
Michigan 56 Hawaii 9, 2-0
vs. UConn: 128th Overall, 129th Offense, 122nd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 48.8
PREDICTION: Michigan might experience an emotional let down in Week 3. UConn comes into Ann Arbor with their new head coach Jim Mora. If the Huskies are 0-2 and look as listless as they did in 2021, this one will struggle to crack 100K in Big House attendance. Let’s hope the apathy is limited to the fan base, and the team is not caught looking ahead to the B1G season opener.
Michigan 37 UConn 10, 3-0
vs. Maryland: 54th Overall, 29th Offense, 89th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 19.8
PREDICTION: This game has already lulled Michigan fans and local media to sleep. The preseason narrative is all about the weak “September Schedule” and the first four walkover games before a road trip to Iowa City. That is a big mistake. Maryland’s wide receivers are in the same tier as Michigan’s & Ohio States. If the Terps can protect Taulia Tagovailoa, and can also protect the football, this game could be a shoot out.
Michigan 48 Maryland 39, 4-0
@ Iowa: 27th Overall, 62nd Offense, 8th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 5.6
PREDICTION: The Wolverines have experienced multiple nightmares at Kinnick versus the Hawkeyes. Both teams could be 4-0 leading into this rematch of the 2021 B1G Championship Game. If that happens, FOX probably chooses this game for their noon slot. That would be a very good break for Michigan. Regardless of time slot, I expect this game will be a low-scoring rock fight. Bet the under as soon as it’s available.
PREDICTION: Indiana’s program has been problematic for Michigan under Tom Allen’s leadership. I think this 2nd consecutive road trip will create some fatigue for the Wolverines, and the Hoosiers will do their best to duplicate the Iowa defensive game plan. In the end, this may be the game where we find out which players will step up in the biggest moments for Michigan. Initially, I am looking to Ronnie Bell and DJ Turner to make the critical plays in high leverage situations.
Michigan 31 Indiana 17, 6-0
vs. Penn State: 13th Overall, 48th Offense, 6th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 7.4
PREDICTION: The Nittany Lions travel to the Big House to kick off the 2nd half of the schedule. Traditionally, Jim Harbaugh’s teams have handled James Franklin’s program with ease in home games. The 2020 COVID year was a glaring exception. Penn State’s defense could keep this from getting to blow out status, but I think the Wolverines will stay in control for almost the entire game to stay unbeaten.
Michigan 29 Penn State 17, 7-0
vs. Michigan State: 15th Overall, 20th Offense, 20th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 7.8
PREDICTION: I am mostly a believer in Mel Tucker’s ability to put together a dangerous team from the transfer portal. I expect the 2022 battle for the Paul Bunyan trophy to resemble a heavyweight fight. Both sides will land some haymakers. The biggest advantage for Michigan will be talent in the secondary. I expect to see the Wolverines make 1 or 2 huge plays in the 4th quarter, with perhaps another Andrel Anthony sighting.
PREDICTION: Plain and simple, Greg Schiano’s defensive scheme gives Michigan problems. The Wolverines got out to a good start against the Scarlet Knights in 2021, but their lack of linebacker depth allowed Rutgers to hang out longer than Maize & Blue faithful were comfortable with. This might be the BTN night game, on the road in Piscataway. I think Schiano finds a way to keep it close again.
Michigan 30 Rutgers 20, 9-0
vs. Nebraska: 44th Overall, 53rd Offense, 33rd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 15.6
PREDICTION: The crystal ball gets pretty cloudy when trying to predict November games from the couch in preseason. Nebraska is a total wild card. History says that Scott Frost will put together a very solid football team. But, they will find ways to lose football games. In a lot of ways they remind me of my favorite NFL team. I am just assuming the Cornhuskers get it figured out well enough to give this game a medium-sized profile. I also expect Frost to find a way to choke away a heartbreaker.
Michigan 24 Nebraska 23, 10-0
vs. Illinois: 79th Overall, 104th Offense, 42nd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 26.3
PREDICTION: In 2022, the Fighting Illini have drawn the sandwich November trap game slot in Michigan’s schedule. If the Wolverines find themselves undefeated and in the hunt for a B1G Championship and CFP berth, then the most important question will be whether the players can focus on anything other than The Game. This will be Senior Night, and player leadership will be crucial in keeping Illinois & their running game in the crosshairs.
PREDICTION: Ohio State’s offense is probably going to be BETTER than that Death Star from 2021. CJ Stroud, Jackson Smith-Njigba, & Trevyon Henderson were superstars last year, and they will all be battling for Heisman trophy consideration by this point in the season. The bigger questions reside on the Buckeyes’ coaching staff. Has Ryan Day’s 1-1 record versus Michigan sewn any lasting doubt? Can Jim Knowles right the ship on defense in one season? I expect the Wolverines will have a number of chances to win their 2nd consecutive game versus OSU for the first time since 2000. However, in Columbus, I am bracing myself for something ridiculous to happen.
Michigan 39 Ohio State 45, 11-1 2nd Place in B1G Ten East
DJ Turner emerged as a shutdown corner late in 2021, and will be asked to provide leadership for a young secondary in 2022. Can new Defensive Coordinator Jesse Minter create enough pressure to generate more turnovers this season?
