Blog

Posted on

Michigan 59 Maryland 18 – Game 11 Recap

2018-05UMMY-011

GAME 11 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 59-18, Michigan by 41 over Maryland
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 13.1 (+27.9)
CD Projection: Michigan by 22 (+19)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 11 RECAP @ Maryland

Michigan put another exclamation point on their 2021 turnaround season. The Wolverines poured it on in College Park, beating the Terrapins like a drum 59-18. All 3 phases made major impacts, and all 3 units put points on the board. Questions about this team’s ability to focus on the task at hand have been answered multiple times this season. No answer was more emphatic than the Wolverines’ performance in this trap game on the road with OSU looming.

Offensively, Cade McNamara had another rock solid performance. Despite multiple passes batted down at the line early, Cade still finished 21-for-28 (75%) for 259 yards and 2 touchdowns. JJ McCarthy made his return to the field this week as well. The Wolverines did in fact expand the McCarthy package, and the true freshman threw for a touchdown and ran for another. The wide receivers unit had a breakout also. There were a few drops in the first quarter, but both Andrel Anthony and Mike Sainristil made spectacular one-handed grabs. One more notable performance came from another true freshman, Donovan Edwards. Edwards set a Michigan record for receiving by a running back with 170 yards on 10 catches.

Defensively, the Wolverines provided too many opportunities for the Terrapins in the first half. However, QB Taulia Tagovailoa could not take advantage of those chances, and Michigan tightened the screws at halftime. The Wolverines held Maryland to 3-of-14 on 3rd down, and 0-for-2 on 4th down. DJ Turner also continued to shine, taking his 2nd interception of the season back for a touchdown.

And, not to be left out, the special teams unit made 2 game-changing plays. The first really swung the momentum in the 2nd quarter as Michigan blocked a punt while they were ahead by just 11 points. 4 plays later the Wolverines were up 18 and never looked back. The wow play that shocked me the most was a throwback return on a pooch kickoff. Former high school QB Michael Barrett fielded a pop up kick and threw across the field to AJ Henning. Henning flashed 79 yards to the end zone, and everyone began to think about the villains in Columbus. Stay the course. Beat the best…or die tryin’. Onward!

Posted on

By the Numbers: Game 11 @ Maryland

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan bounced back from a sluggish start in Happy Valley.  Cade McNamara threw for 3 touchdowns and the Wolverines’ defense harassed Sean Clifford en route to a physical 21-17 victory over the Nittany Lions.

NEXT UP: @ Maryland: 56th, 6.3 

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 13.1, Michigan Win Probability 78%

The Vegas bookmakers have certainly dialed into similar calculations as those that Connelly uses for the SP+ model.  The Sunday betting line opened at Michigan -14.5 and has moved to -15.0.  Michigan has been very consistent and predictable, going 8-2 versus the spread so far.  Maryland is a total rollercoaster for the 2nd consecutive season.

Michigan Offense (25th) vs. Maryland Defense (73rd) 

Regardless of how Josh Gattis chooses to attack the Terps, Michigan should be able to execute that particular game plan.  The Wolverines haven’t seen a defense ranked this low in SP+ since Game #3 vs. NIU.  The number one question in this match up is the health of Michigan’s various offensive players, especially Blake Corum.  Hassan Haskins has proven that he is capable of carrying the workload.  However, Corum’s open field explosiveness has been missed.  Also, forcing the opposing defensive coordinator to account for Corum from sideline to sideline helps create running and passing lanes in the middle. 

Some other walking wounded may also see reduced snaps in this game, including tight end Erick All and wide receiver Roman Wilson.  With at least a handful of these injury problems facing the offense, we may not see the scoring explosion that the SP+ ranking disparity would suggest.

Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Maryland Offense (38th)

I was pleasantly surprised to see the Wolverines’ defensive unit ranked in the top 10 in the preseason.  I fully expected the defense to drop in the early season, and hoped they could rebound back near the top 10 by November.  Here we are in late November, and the Michigan defense has steadily climbed the SP+ rankings to #5 nationally. 

Maryland’s offense is dangerous, but not nearly as consistent as the Wolverines’ defense.  Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa leads the Terps.  He possesses both the arm talent and the running ability to cause significant problems for Michigan.  I expect that he will pull a few rabbits out of his magic hat.  However, he will also fall victim to creating huge negative plays as well.  Taulia has shown that he will throw into coverage, especially when targeting former 5-star recruit Rakim Jarrett. 

We know Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo will make Tagovailoa scramble.  If the Michigan linebackers keep him contained on the ground, and the Michigan DBs make a handful of plays on 50/50 balls, then the Wolverines should be able to hold Maryland under 20 points.

PREDICTION: I didn’t expect that Michigan’s path to this point in the season would look how it has.  However, this is pretty much what I expected Michigan to be once this game rolled around on the calendar, so I didn’t tweak my preseason prediction by much.  Part of me wanted to lower Michigan’s offensive output, because the Wolverines’ staff may be overly vanilla if they can get away with it.  However, even a conservative game plan has yielded 30+ points for this team against better defenses than Maryland’s.  I know it’s familiar, but it remains true: if Michigan plays well, this should be a comfortable victory.
Michigan 39 Maryland 17 (PRESEASON Michigan 39 Maryland 14)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/16/21), 9-1

  • SP+ Overall: 5th (same), 21.9
  • SP+ Offense: 25th (↓8), 35.3
  • SP+ Defense: 5th (↑3), 14.1
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (↓1), 0.6

AP Poll: 8th (↑1), 1,134

Coaches’ Poll: 7th (↑1), 1,153

CFP Rank: 6th (same)

U-M Resume after Game #10
Posted on

Michigan 21 Penn State 17 – Game 10 Recap

2021_10_DJC_UM21_PSU_17-35

GAME 10 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 21-17, Michigan by 4 over Penn State
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 1.8 (+2.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 6 (-2)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 10 RECAP @ Penn State

Michigan did not play their best game of the season, but managed to claim their biggest victory to date, 21-17 over the Penn State Nittany Lions. In baseball, you can compliment a pitcher after a similar performance when he is able to get a win without his “best stuff”. I would say this game serves the same purpose for me. I think even higher of this 2021 Michigan Football team because they were able to win a big game, in a legit road atmosphere, even though the Wolverines had to fight some headwind.

Offensively, the Wolverines were led by all-world running back Hassan Haskins. Haskins carried the ball 31 times for 156 yards (5.0 ypc). He added 5 catches for another 45 yards also.

While H2 was doing a lot of heavy lifting on the ground, the Five Factors metrics point to a less successful day than Michigan has been accustomed to this year. Michigan only managed a 38% Success Rate on run plays. This is just the 2nd time in 2021 that the average Expected Points Added (EPA) on run plays was below zero.

One main reason for this was a stuffed run attempt on 4th & 2 in the 2nd quarter. That turnover on downs was worth -4.150 EPA. The remaining run plays averaged an EPA of +0.074.

Again, Cade McNamara showed his poise and leadership in big moments for the Michigan offense. All 3 touchdowns came via the pass. McNamara was 19-of-29 (65.5%) for 217 yards to go with the 3 TDs.

In stark contrast to the called run plays, the Wolverines averaged an EPA of +0.342 on called pass plays. Erick All collected his first career touchdown reception, and it was an even he’ll never forget. All snatched McNamara’s pass on a shallow crossing route and outran the PSU defense 47 yards to the end zone for the go-ahead score in the 4th quarter.

This game was another major test for 1st year defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald. No passing tandem that Michigan has faced to this point is more dangerous than Penn State’s WR Jahan Dotson and QB Sean Clifford.

Heading into the game, many local & national pundits were still reticent to place their confidence in U-M’s secondary. The Wolverines kept a lid on Dotson, allowing 9 catches, but only 61 yards. Sean Clifford finished 23-for-43 (53.5%) for 205 yards and 1 touchdown.

Clifford’s stat line looks very pedestrian, but appeared heroic if you were able to watch the game. Michigan tallied 7 total sacks, and 4 additional hurries. Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo were absolutely impossible to block, again.

This week was also the first time Michigan did not overwhelmingly dominate the special teams phase of the game. That is more a compliment to Penn State than an indictment of the Wolverines. Jake Moody converted 3 PATs, and Brad Robbins averaged 52.4 yards per punt. PSU’s punter/kicker Jordan Stout was also booming punts, averaging 51.0 yards per kick. However, Stout did miss a 42-yard FG attempt in the 3rd quarter.

This was another shining example of Michigan playing complementary football where all 3 phases of the game were picking each other up. The Wolverines will continue to work on converting short yardage opportunities on offense, and the defense has two monster passing attacks coming next. Michigan can still improve a good amount, but this team is capable of playing championship football. Onward!

Posted on

Nothing But ‘Net – Week #03 – 11/15/2021 – A Strong Start

The (#6) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games this past week, and they won them both.  On Wednesday (11/10/2021), they beat Buffalo 88-76 in Crisler Arena, then on Saturday (11/13/2021), they beat Prairie View A&M 77-49 in Washington, DC.  The two wins start Michigan off with a record of 2-0.

What Happened?

Michigan was expected to win both of these games, and they did.  In fact, they started strong in both games, and never trailed in either game.  In the Buffalo game, Michigan opened up a double-digit lead (19-9) at the 14:07 mark, and kept the lead in the 10-13 point range for the next few minutes.  They finally started to pull further away at the 8:48 mark (33-19), and got the lead up to 20 points (39-19) with 6:22 left in the half.  The lead was still 20 points (51-31) with 0:53 left in the half, when Buffalo scored the last 5 points of the half to cut the halftime lead to 15 points, 51-36.  The second half did not start well, and Buffalo crept to within 7 points (56-49) with 15:41 left in the game.  Michigan pushed the lead back up to 13 points (64-51) with 13:38 to go, but Buffalo hung around, getting to within 5 points (72-67) at the 6:00 mark.  Fortunately, that was as close as they got.  Michigan closed out the game with a 16-9 run, to win by 12 points, 88-76.

This was a chippy, choppy game.  The refs were “whistle-happy”, and called 46 fouls in 40 minutes of play, 23 against each team.   Because of all the whistles, there was no flow to the game.  There were several scuffles, which resulted in 6 technical fouls called, 3 on each team.  It was not a thing of beauty, but it was a solid win.

The PVAMU game was much smoother.  Once again, Michigan opened up a double-digit lead pretty quickly: 19-7 with 13:19 to go in the 1st half.  Once again, they built the lead up to almost 20 points: 28-9 with 8:57 left.  They got the lead as high as 26 points (42-16) at the 3:30 mark, then let PVAMU score the last 7 points of the half, to make it a 19-point lead (42-23) at halftime.  PVAMU scored first in the 2nd half, to get within 16 points (42-26), and that was it for them.  UM went on a 9-0 run to push the lead back up to 25 points (51-26) with 16:05 to go, and never let the lead get under 22 points the rest of the way.  Coach Howard put in some subs in the final minutes, and Michigan coasted to the victory.

Stats

The game stats for the Buffalo game were pretty good, with one exception.  Michigan shot well overall (32-for-59 = 54.2%), they shot 3-pointers pretty well (6-for-15 = 40.0%), but they shot free throws poorly (18-for-30 = 60.0%).  They won the rebounding battle (39-37), but they lost the turnover battle (10-9).  They won this game with good overall shooting, but they almost lost it with poor free throw shooting.

The game stats for the PVAMU game were actually worse than the Buffalo stats.  Michigan shot decently overall (25-for-55 = 45.5%), they shot 3-pointers decently (10-for-29 = 34.5%), and they shot free throws horribly (17-for-32 = 53.1%).  They crushed PVAMU on the boards (52-32), but lost the turnover battle again (20-16).  They won this game with defense, holding PVAMU to 27.0% shooting (17-for-63).  Once again, terrible free throw shooting hurt them.

Who Started?

The starters were Eli Brooks, Hunter Dickinson, Caleb Houstan, Brandon Johns, Jr., and DeVante’ Jones.

Who Looked Good?

Dickinson was the star this week, with a team-high 27 points vs. Buffalo, and 11 points vs. PVAMU.  He also had 10 rebounds in the PVAMU game, for his first double-double of the season.  Even better, he hit the first 3-pointer of his Michigan career in the PVAMU game, after going 0-for-4 from deep last season.

Brooks hit double figures in both games, with 11 points vs. Buffalo, and a team-high 15 points vs. PVAMU.  So far, he’s shooting a nice percentage from 3-point range: 1-for-2 vs. Buffalo, and 3-for-5 vs. PVAMU, for a combined 4-for-7.

Houstan also hit double figures in both games, with 11 and 13, respectively.  He isn’t shooting a great percentage from 3-point range (2-for-4 and 3-for-8 = 5-for-12), but his five 3-pointers lead the team.

Jones hit double figures in the PVAMU game (10 points), but only had 7 points vs. Buffalo.  He did a nice job running the offense, with 5 assists (and only 1 turnover) in each game.

Terrance Williams II was the only sub to hit double figures, with 15 points vs. Buffalo.  He had 8 points vs. PVAMU.  He also snagged 7 and 5 rebounds.  He’s shooting a nice percentage from 3-point range (2-for-3 and 1-for-3 = 3-for-6).  He definitely brings energy to the team when he’s out there, but he’s also still kind of a loose cannon, playing just a little too fast and out of control sometimes.

Moussa Diabate didn’t hit double figures in either game (7 and 6 points), but he did bring lots of energy to the team when he was out there.  He is easily the most athletic player on the team, and his 7’6” wingspan really helps on defense.  He had 5 and 8 rebounds this week.

Kobe Bufkin played in both games, scoring 0 and 8 points.  He only played 4 minutes against Buffalo, but he played 17 minutes in the PVAMU game.

Who Looked Not-So-Good?

Johns hasn’t had a good game yet.  He played 23 minutes vs. Buffalo and 22 minutes vs. PVAMU, and only scored 5 and 2 points.  He did grab 6 rebounds vs. PVAMU, but the rest of his game has been lacking.

Who Else Played?

Adrien Nuñez played in both games, for 8 and 5 minutes, respectively.  He scored 5 and 1 points.

Frankie Collins returned to action from his injury, and played in both games.  He played 7 and 6 minutes, and scored 0 and 1 points.

Jaron Faulds played for 3 minutes in the PVAMU game, and scored 2 points.

Jace Howard played for 6 minutes in the PVAMU game, but missed all 3 of his shots, all 3-point attempts.

Who Didn’t Play?

Isaiah Barnes, Zeb Jackson, and Will Tschetter are the scholarship players who didn’t play in either game.  Jackson has an unspecified illness.  I don’t know why Barnes and Tschetter didn’t get in

Ian Burns and Brandon Wade are on the scout team, so they’re a lower priority for minutes.

What Does It Mean?

Buffalo is a good team, picked to win the MAC this season, with a couple pretty big, pretty good big men.  They were a good warm-up for Michigan.  PVAMU was overmatched, so we can’t learn much from dismantling them.

One thing we learned for sure is that Michigan needs to work on their free throws.  Their poor free throw shooting didn’t hurt them much in the PVAMU game, since they had such a big lead, but they almost lost the Buffalo game due to bad free throw shooting, and they could easily lose a game or two in the Big Ten due to that.

What’s Next?

This week, Michigan plays three games.  On Tuesday (11/16/2021, 9:00 p.m., FS1) they play Seton Hall in Crisler Arena, then on late Friday night/early Saturday morning (11/20/2021, 12:30 a.m. EST, ESPN) they play UNLV in Las Vegas, NV, and finally on Sunday (11/21/2021, 9:30 p.m./12:00 a.m. EST, ESPN/ESPN2) they play either Arizona or Wichita State in Las Vegas, NV.

Seton Hall was 14-13 last season, 10-9 in the Big East.  They lost all their games against ranked opponents, they lost in the 2nd round of their conference tournament, and they didn’t play in any post-season tournaments.  They are picked to finish 5th in the Big East this season.  They picked up Bryce  Aiken from Harvard in the transfer portal.  He was one of the players Michigan was interested in before last season.  Other than that, they don’t have any noteworthy players.  They have as much height as Michigan (a 7’2” center, and a couple 6’10” forwards), so Dickinson and Diabate could have their hands full.

This game is part of the Gavitt Tipoff Games, essentially the Big East/Big Ten Challenge.  Michigan has a special history with Seton Hall, since Michigan beat Seton Hall 80-79 in overtime to win their first National Championship on 04/03/1989 in Seattle, WA.  The two teams have met only one other time, the next season, when UM beat SHU again, this time 91-86 on 12/23/1989 in Las Vegas, NV.  It should be a very intense game.

UNLV was 12-15 last season, 8-10 in the Mountain West.  They didn’t play any ranked teams, they lost in the 2nd round of their conference tournament, and they didn’t play in any post-season tournaments.  They don’t have any noteworthy players, but they do have some height (a 7’1” center and a 6’10” forward).  This is a game that Michigan should win handily.

This game is part of the Roman Main Event holiday tournament, held in T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.  After not going to a holiday tournament last season, it’s nice that Michigan is going to one this season.

The other two teams in the Roman Main Event are Arizona and Wichita State.  They are both teams with a rich basketball heritage.  As recently as 2017, Arizona was a Sweet Sixteen team, and Wichita State was a Sweet Sixteen team in 2015.  In fact, Wichita State was in Atlanta in 2013 for the Final Four, along with Michigan, Syracuse, and Louisville.

Arizona was 17-9 last season, 11-9 in the Pac-12.  Their only win over a ranked opponent was against USC.  Due to a self-imposed ban on post-season play, they didn’t play in their conference tournament or any other post-season tournaments.  They don’t have any noteworthy players, but they have plenty of height: a 6’10” forward, a 6’11” forward, a 7’0” center, and a 7’1” center.  Dickinson and Diabate will be very busy if UM plays them.  Arizona isn’t ranked, but they’re in the “Also Received Votes” list.  This could be a very challenging game.

Wichita State was 16-6 last season, 11-2 in the AAC (American Athletic Conference).  Their only win over a ranked opponent was against Houston.  They were a “First Four” team in the NCAA Tournament, losing to Drake.  They don’t have any noteworthy players, and they don’t have much height (a 6’11” forward).  Michigan would prefer to play them instead of Arizona.

Check back next week to find out what happened and why.

Go Blue!