Author: Phil Callihan

Support the Podcast, Get Gear

Phil and Clint Derringer preview the upcoming Michigan Football season. Game-by-Game analysis with Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards and Jim Harbaugh.

Subscribe:
Apple Podcasts | Google Podcasts | Spotify | Pandora | Stitcher | Email | RSS |


Podcast Archive

Podcast Transcript

Phil Callihan 0:16
The season looms. Let’s start with the Football season preview. So how do you see the season looming for the Michigan Wolverines here? How do you see it shaping up?

Clint Derringer 0:33
Expectations couldn’t be any higher, right? They’ve won the big 10 championship for two years in a row. And returned some really key pieces, you know, players that we thought would have gone to the NFL Draft, like Blake Corum, Zack Zinter, Trevor Keegan, all through the entire, the entire lineup on both sides of the ball. They’re returning, you know, productive. So I expect, you know, I expect them to take the next step on top of, you know, beating Ohio State and winning a big 10 Championship, going to the Football playoff, which is what they’ve accomplished the last two years. And those were certainly progressive steps compared to recent history. I think it’s time to take another step forward, I think you have to not only get to the playoff win the game, you know, when the semifinal game get to the championship game. And obviously, the goal for the program is to win the national championship. So in terms of previewing and predicting what we think’s going to happen, those are the expectations. So it’s really hard. Usually, we have some time here to talk about, you know, setting the bar when you know, what, what do we expect. But, you know, the program over the last few years has really done that. For us. I don’t know how much conversation there is, other than you know, Michigan’s expectations or to compete for the national title. And then where do we see potential pitfalls? Or their greatest challenges? Along the way? Or where do we see anything that may be of interest, you know, when we start zooming in on the details, so I expect them to win every game and to have everything on the line when they get to the end of the season. And when the buckeyes come into an arbor, I think it very well could be 11 and Oh, and 11. And oh, again, with everything on the lot.

Phil Callihan 2:29
So what’s interesting for me is, so I’m doing all of my pre season prep, right. And one of the things we introduced last year is the visual depth chart. And you have the offense and you have the defense and we have pictures of players. And because last year was the first season that I really got into it, it required a lot of work, you know, preseason, because he had to lay everything out. This year, I loaded up offense and defense. And I knew practically every name. And it’s it’s hard to explain how loaded Michigan is right now. You know, there was an article of, you know, projecting possible, possibly 17 draft picks, you know, depending on who chooses to leave. And, again, just just when you talk about the depth of this roster, the expectations, the fall camp availability. Donovan mentioned, how surprised he was when Blake told him that he was coming back.

Donovan Edwards 3:42
Oh, hell yeah, it was a surprise my bad…Yeah, it was a surprise because, you know, he was coming off of a such a fantastic year. I’m very grateful. And I’m blessed that he’s coming back.

Phil Callihan 3:58
And then, you know, a week or so later, Blake talked about how he expected his last game to be last season,

Blake Corum 4:09
That was gonna be my last game. You know, I’d be lying if I said I didn’t. But being able be bet, you know, in front of the best fans. Playing with with my guys, majority of my guys came back, you know, playing in the big house, the best stadium, you know, it’s gonna be a lot, you know, and it’s gonna be a long season. And I’m just excited to be back out there. Matt is nothing like game day.

Phil Callihan 4:33
It’s interesting, because when you go, you know, let’s just look at like specifically the Running Back position. You have two great running backs. And you know what happened at the end of last year, Blake got hurt and Michigan didn’t lose a beat. Now you lose differences. But some of these positions, you’re looking at two and three deep. Coach Harbaugh talked about the Michigan match they’d

Jim Harbaugh 5:00
Yes, I read that another team was, was doing that for their quarterbacks. Michigan method. I liked it. I liked the way that sounded. So that’s some Michigan method. You know, who plays who plays? Who gets to start? The best players? How do you know the best player is probably the best. So if I had to define what the Michigan method is that that would that would that would define it. Well,

Phil Callihan 5:28
They have a one whole side of offensive lineman. And there’s another set of offensive linemen and they’re competing against each other kind of the way. You had the situation with, with JJ and Cade last year. So again, I agree with you expectations are sky high. You know, I look through the schedule. And you go, and you say, well, I expect both Michigan and Ohio State to be undefeated, heading into that game. The schedule lays out great for Michigan,

Clint Derringer 6:01
At least for me, in terms of trying to quantify matchups, or I really liked Bill Connelly’s SP Plus model for quantifying what we see on the field. It’s what you and I discussed the most frequently there are, you know, every year there are more models added right. I think Connelly’s still, he’s kind of like the godfather of this college Football analytics. But I like his system. And the main reason that I like what he does, is he breaks it down into what he calls the five factors that really help explain exactly what a team is, well, right, when compared to, you know, the team on the field that day, and then obviously, you know, over over time as you’re compiling the data, so the five factors are explosiveness, you know, how big are your big plays? There’s efficiency, which is, you know, how well are you staying on schedule and moving the chains that’s, you know, getting five yards or more on first down, it’s getting 67% of the yard, you need on second down, it’s converting on third down, it’s converting on fourth down. So moving the chains is the efficiency, metric, field position, which is always it actually seems a little bit old school, I remember listening to announcers talk about it a lot when I was growing up, you know, in the in the 80s, and 90s. And I don’t know that we talked about it as much on the TV broadcast, but I liked that Connolly’s model includes a section on field position, it lets us really quantify what we’re seeing with the punting and kicking game. So we track that talk about it. The big one is finishing drives, this one is one that gets a lot of attention and jumps out as a sore thumb when, you know, in games that we’ve lost, that maybe we thought Michigan should win. Finishing drives means when you get a fresh set of downs, inside the opponent’s 40 yard line. So anything from the 40 yard line in with a first and 10 that would be considered a scoring opportunity. And then he divides how many points you score per trick inside the the opponent’s 40 yard line. And then the last piece is kind of a catch all it’s turnovers and penalties, and kind of a section where all of the things that are more attributable to luck, or, you know, happenstance or or some coaching things, big mistakes, things that swing the pendulum widely, but you have to kind of track them, but they they get grouped together under this, you know, turnovers and penalties. And that’s the least, I mean, it’s very predictive of a game to game basis, but it’s the least consistent, you know, over the course of an entire season. He actually when he’s looking at the numbers, he always is talking about teams regressing to the mean and coming back closer to being with you, we’re very lucky season that he expects you to have a couple bad breaks this year. And if you are very unlucky in one season, you can probably expect to win another game or two, just because of regression to the mean. So anyways, those are the main pillars of what it is that goes into a lot of what we’re about to talk about in terms of quantifying. And, and to your point about, you know, starting out the season, especially against TCU. The model kind of predicts, you know, the gap in the two teams ratings is is an estimate of what the spread would be for the SP Plus model, right. So initially here against East Carolina. In the in the SP Plus system, Michigan is ranked third overall. And East Carolina is 87 out of something like 133 teams this year. So 87 thought 133 and the SP plus would say that this is going to be about a 37 point spread. So, obviously, you know, Intro aside here, what you’re talking about, you know, double digits two or three scores at halftime certainly could be the case. And we’ll see that pattern kind of stay the same throughout the whole non conference season, because there’s not a huge, a major non conference matchup here.

Phil Callihan 10:27
So one of the interesting things that we’re going to talk about more later is that we do have a little bit of extra drama with Michigan having a rotating guest head coach, or temporary head coach with Coach Harbaugh sitting out. So that’s going to add a little bit of drama, but I really don’t expect that to impact too much what we see in the season. You know, when I look at the schedule klant this year, I really look at it in thirds. Okay, so we have these first four games. And what I really like about him is, so you have a noon start against East Carolina, come back the next week, he got to 330 game versus UNLV. Next week, he got to 730 game versus Bowling Green, and then you come back to noon versus Rutgers. So you start with four home games, and you’re getting a different experience, right, you’re getting your noon starts where we’ve seen seasons where you had four straight noon starts. And as much as I believe that noon is when God intended big 10 Football to be played. It is nice to get kind of a variation and get the team different experiences and, and experiencing, you know, different game days of preparation. So, again, East Carolina and Michigan, as you said, big gap there. Come back the next week against UNLV. And, again, how does the SP plus predict that one and knowing that the model will will continue to evolve as as it begins to ingest more data, but how does it project out now?

Clint Derringer 12:07
So the this year the nonconference schedule, the teams actually go in order of strongest to weakest. So East Carolina right now in the preseason wood has the highest SP plus rating of 87 UNLV right now is 100 and 10th. Overall. And Bowling Green has 120/9. Very, very near the bottom. So at least in terms of, you know, on the way in before you have game data, where these will take some some big jumps early in the season. East Carolina in the preseason is the strongest. And then there’s a you know, a 30 spot drop almost a 23 spot drop to UNLV. They’re changing coaches, right, I think Bowling Green actually will be better than UNLV when it’s all said and done. But East Carolina really was was it. They were a pretty solid group of five program last year. But they really cut picked over in in the transfer portal. So they’re not quite the same team, but they do bring in an experienced Quarterback. So the gap in the UNLV gain in the second week is 43 points. Right. And that increases to 49 points in the third week against Bowling Green. So we’re talking, you know, 35 plus five touchdown plus spreads from three games. Really, the question is, you know, how do they handle this drama with Harbaugh’s, you know, absence on the sidelines for the games, the you know, the question marks around who’s doing what, and rotating those responsibilities through the first three weeks. That’s where most of the focus will be. Again, I hope that the players continue to be really good at compartmentalizing and focusing on the task at hand. Because if they play a clean, good Football games, then these these games are not going to be competitive as the third quarter goes into the fourth quarter and will be really just looking at statistics and narrative through those first three games.

Phil Callihan 14:13
Totally agree. So after those three, another home game, big 10 opener, Rutgers is at Michigan. What is sp plus project for that one?

Clint Derringer 14:25
So Rutgers is at 77th. Overall, that’s again, Cristiano took over there. With three or four seasons ago, I want to say three seasons ago. He took over and you know, they’ve steadily climbed nationally, so they’re almost to Midway, you know, for, for the entire nation in terms of being 77 Overall, they have the 65th ranked defense for SP plus and I think they’ll actually finish the end of the season even better than that. So she I know. They bring back some experience on the defensive side of the Ball. That’s a big plus Shannon’s a defensive minded coach. And they typically give Michigan trouble with their defensive scheme. So, SP plus these, this is a 34 point spread. I really, really think that this one is going to be closer than than that. I don’t expect Michigan to struggle the way that we’ve seen them struggle sometimes against truckers. But I do think that this defense from the Scarlet Knights will highlight some flaws, or maybe where there are some some chinks in the armor, so to speak, on the offense. And that’s a benefit of playing this game early in the season, I do think that there’s going to be some consternation and discussion about what’s going on, why isn’t this working? Why does this look so clunky? That we’ll get the you know, get the staff to go back and clean some things up. And maybe, you know, tighten up some execution things that we may be seeing at that point, because the the scheme that that the Scarlet Knights run up front typically gives our offensive problems now on when the Wolverines are on defense, I just I just don’t think that Rutgers yet is going to be able to put together a really solid offense, I don’t think that they can score enough to really make the game a problem unless Michigan is handing them points. So I think Michigan will win by, you know, two, or maybe three scores, maybe, you know, somewhere like 15 to 20 points. But I think that will be the spread, when when we get to week four, this game is going to be close enough that it makes some people uncomfortable.

Phil Callihan 16:40
Well, and I think that’s one of the things that you need to consider like, so last year, Michigan 52 to 17. Right. And looking back, you think, Wow, that was a buck ticket. And it was, except that Rutgers was ahead 17 to 14, heading into the half. Right. And I remember at the time thinking, ooh, that’s not good. Right. And of course, Michigan came out to dominate the second half. But I agree with you, there’s definitely you know, I think this is one of the times where the SP plus looks at the at the, the end of the game rather than the journey of the game. And I wouldn’t be surprised. You know, Greg Schiano, I think uses Michigan as a yardstick for his program. You know, definitely he’s taken an interesting path through the coaching profession. And, you know, and, Clint, I think one thing that we need to accept, and that Michigan fans might not like, right, is that we’re gonna get every team’s best shot. Okay. And there will be some struggles in this season. Because this is everybody’s national championship. And I like that. You know, I remember thinking back to, you know, the Bo Schembechler teams and even for the bulk of the Lloyd Carr era. You know, again, everybody hated Michigan, because Michigan was the best team. And after the last two years, I think that’s where we are, again, you definitely have Ohio State questioning themselves. And they’re a really good team, except when they play us. And I think that every other team is looking at Michigan right now to, you know, how do they measure up? They want to beat them. And, and again, it’s, it’s good to be there again. Because, you know, in the rich Rodriguez era and the brady hoke era, the concern you have is that, listen, it shouldn’t be a big deal when he beat Michigan. And unfortunately, Michigan losses were becoming a little too routine. You know, it’s good that everybody it’s back to that everybody wants to knock you off and, and his brigade, their best game.

Clint Derringer 19:14
And in terms of measurement also, we’ve heard a little bit in the spring and coming into fall camp and now coming out of fall camp going into game prep, that this team, you know, this 2023 version of Michigan may want to pass the ball a little bit more than we’ve seen in the last couple of years under Harbaugh with JJ being a second year starter and kind of trying to limit the the amount of carries you know, limit some of the mileage so to speak, you’re putting on your two running backs and the running game. So I think this Rutgers game and the unique scheme that they play on defense in the front will be an opportunity to see if that is the case because I think Rutgers is going to give the running game a little bit of trouble, they mess with your blocking schemes enough that I think they can keep it close, certainly through through the first half, like we said, so it’ll be interesting to see if Michigan does indeed find a way to be successful in passing downs, you know, like third and 10 second intent, those types of situations. But also, if they mix it up a little bit more on standard downs, like on your first intent, or second and five, or three situations, right, I would say, I would be interested to see in that game, specifically, the first big 10 game, if we get closer to a 5050, pass to run ratio. And that’s one thing that I would keep a specific eye on in terms of the numbers. It’s a clearer look at what their philosophy is going to be actually the season.

Phil Callihan 21:00
Completely agree. And so expect a tougher game than many may expect versus wreckers. And then we head into that second third of the season, which the key to that, to me is that three of those four games are on the road, right? You had in Nebraska, you had to Minnesota, come home to play Indiana, and then and then you you close out that third with Michigan State, which no matter how the team is talent wise, is always always a battle. So how does SP plus project that game versus Nebraska on the road, Michigan, and it’ll again, it’ll be Michigan’s first road game of the season.

Clint Derringer 21:48
Yeah, so first thing about the the traveling regardless of the four opponents, I think traveling three times in four weeks is a challenge in and of itself. I mean, that’s a, it’s a 13th opponent in this schedule, you know, there are some breaks that Michigan gets on this schedule, for sure. We’ll talk about that in a little bit. But this is really a meat grinder schedule, in terms of logistics, in terms of focus, and in terms of fatigue, on the on the players and coaches. You’ve got the craziness of the horrible suspension in the first three games than Rutgers, you know, we’re saying maybe kind of put challenges you more than you expect in that fourth game. And then you got to start prepping for, you know, three road trips and four in four weeks. So really, mentally and emotionally going to be a challenge. As the as the team moves in the third of the season now specific to Nebraska, right now, as B plus has done a 59th overall. So now we’ve climbed into the top half nationally 38th ranked defense again, which is you know, respectable, I would say 68th offense. And again, really big question marks here, as Matt rule takes over from Scott frost. So we don’t know a lot. And we certainly at this point in the season, we don’t know exactly how much is going to change what that’s gonna look like. They will be better than the team that showed up in Ann Arbor with an interim coach last year. And Michigan won that game 34 to three, and was kind of on cruise control, I would say. But I think this one on the road in Lincoln. We saw two years ago and 2021. You know, the Huskers had a fourth quarter come or fourth quarter lead. And Michigan had to come back and kick a field goal late to take the lead in that one right in one of those games where you know, hardball was talking about kind of taking their songs and making them yours, right kind of taking their energy out of these road. These road environments, and this one’s going to be a really, really cranked up crowd, right? This is going to be their first chance I think on the season to really plant their flag under a brand new coach. Right? They’re going to be looking to make a statement nationally against Michigan, an extension of what you said you’re gonna get everybody’s best shot but this is like a program best shot. Because, you know, this new regime is going to really be looking to make a name for themselves and they know even keeping it close and making it a very competitive game which is going to make people start flipping the channels to come watch because the challenge under if especially if they schedule it at night, I don’t think we have the starting time yet, but I get I get a feeling that that one might get slid into the primetime spot in Lincoln. So I think Michigan, again, more experience had As shown, you know that they are mentally and emotionally equipped to, to keep their heads on straight on the road. So these are challenges that I expect them to be able to handle. But SP plus says 25 points spread for Michigan. I think that’s, again, I think it’ll be a little bit closer than that right now. I would say I think something more like 34 to 30. You know, maybe even two scores, depending on on, you know, special teams and what other kinds of crazy stuff we see. But another one that that first row game first challenge. If Michigan plays well, then the no stretch it out into the 20 point lead. But there’s, there’s plenty that could could go wrong. And we’re going to need the leaders in the locker room to really be able to keep that team together on that first road trip. That’s a tough one.

Phil Callihan 25:54
Absolutely. So then returned from Nebraska, and then head out to play for the little brown jug versus Minnesota. And, again, another game that the time has not been announced. But again, you wouldn’t be surprised to see this shift a little bit. And again, you know, in past years, Michigan has struggled on the road that has improved somewhat. But again, it’s a whole different situation. You go from four straight home games to a road game, Nebraska and a road game to Minnesota. How does SP plus protect the Minnesota game Clint.

Clint Derringer 26:38
So in his middle third, SP plus has Minnesota ranked the highest they have Minnesota 27th Overall 57th on offense, which is pretty low, but ninth on defense, which is really, really higher, significantly higher than we’ve seen from PJ Fleck program recently. So 27th overall fringe top 25 program. I’m peeking right now, at what their schedule is coming in, I am interested to see who they played, Michigan comes into town. But this one if if Minnesota doesn’t have a loss on the record at this point, like you said, this could be a flex game, into the primetime spot, another road and hiking would be quite a challenge. Because this team, to me, talking about Minnesota, seems like it’s going to be defense led. That really is a bad matchup for them in terms of coming against Michigan, where the strength of Michigan team really is the offensive line. So I think Michigan’s offensive line is so strong and is so deep, they are going to chew up most of the defenses that they see these defenses. So to have a team that reads, defensively, I think Michigan will be able to grind this one out through the fourth quarter, the spread right now would be about two touchdowns looks like about 16 points, SP plus would expect this one to be. So again, I’ll go a little bit closer than that. And say that, maybe 31 to 20. Again, but really, it’s going to come down to the experience, fourth quarter and being able to really wear this team down into the fourth quarter and then probably be able to spring some of those larger big plays. Very similar to what we saw maybe in the Ohio State game. Where, yes, it’s very close statistically and on the scoreboard. But once once the dam breaks, then we may see, we may see it really, really break and we’ll learn more. I just got this scheduled to pop up. We’ll learn more about Minnesota looks like in week three, they they go on the road to Chapel Hill and play North Carolina on the road. So that’s a team right now. AP number 21. So we will have a much clearer idea of exactly what this Minnesota team is. Before we have to head to Minneapolis.

Phil Callihan 29:17
Absolutely. So Michigan return to Ann Arbor, hopefully with a little brown jug and toe to face, Indiana. And I’ll tell you my concern here is first. Indiana is one of those teams that always plays Michigan tough. You know, and we say that all the time, but they really do. Right, Indiana as a team that has no fear when they play Michigan. My big concern here is so you’re coming off two consecutive road games, right coming back to the friendly confines of the big house. But you got to know there that there will be a danger of looking ahead to the Michigan State game and And my concern there is that there are a lot of questions about Michigan State as a program right now with the questions. They have a Quarterback. You know, again, cliche you throw the records out. But I almost think it could be a bigger distraction if if Michigan State’s record is really bad. Right. So again, we’ll talk about that, you know, after Indiana, but again, so what is the SP plus project for Indiana, Michigan right now?

Clint Derringer 30:30
Yeah, interesting that even even when we’re talking about these games in order, it’s hard not to look past the Indiana game and start talking about the Michigan State game. That’s the following we, I mean, Indiana, because they’re in the East, in this last year, of big 10 divisions. They’ve always seemed to fall into a spot in Michigan schedule that had kind of a trap game feel to it. And Indiana, that occasion, very frequently, right. A lot of times they were slotted in, like week, 11, before Ohio State, and they problems. But those Indiana teams, first of all, had Kevin Wilson at the helm of the offense, you know, and they ran a version of the spread offense that that caused a lot of teams a lot of problems and created chaos. And that’s no longer the case. And also, when Tom Allen took over, he had, you know, really, really strong defenses that caused some problems in the recent history for Michigan in that trap game spot. This team is not that like they are at third overall. So again, now we’ve we’ve slipped back down very close to a similar ranking to what we would see with ECU right Indiana is closer to ECU than they are to Minnesota, in terms of SP plus rankings, and the defense ranking all the way down to 100th. So just given the narrative of the season, and kind of the the travel pattern, again, kind of seeing this as a safe haven a home game against an inferior opponent, as long as they avoid the trap of looking past them, which I think this team is really excels at staying focused at the task on the task at hand. As long as they are focused on playing against Indiana in this spot, I think this one stretches out. And it could be a blowout. So I’m expecting something like 40 to the 14th. And SP plus has it pretty similar about 35 points spread here, you know, five touchdowns. So.

Phil Callihan 32:45
So I definitely think that I just look back to last year. And again 1010 at halftime, you know, tie and then Miss heading into the fourth quarter or 1710.

Clint Derringer 32:59
And a couple I mean Michigan, when that happened, we’re winning that game happened in the season last year. I don’t think we knew then what we know now is that Michigan played a lot of close first half games, there was a lot of halftime scores. Looking back, it’s like man, I don’t remember it being like that. And it kind of fits eventually fit this narrative that we don’t that I was just talking about of wearing a team down and then when the dam breaks, the points really come in bunches in the second half. And Indiana I would say falls into that. But also that’s the game that my cart collapsed in the first half. If you remember you had the scare the medical emergency that totally disrupted everything in that game. So really tough to kind of project back on. You know what that was in Bloomington last year. That game being close at halftime? I don’t I don’t take the same message or the same signal from that particular result. As I did for example, like the Rutgers game on the road, being close, I think that is a style challenge for Michigan against Rutgers against Indiana. I think there was some some other off the field stuff that was that was clearly in their heads. And once they were able to take a deep breath and refocus and find out the coach heart was was doing okay. You know, they they jumped right back into it and got into a good rhythm.

Phil Callihan 34:30
Absolutely. And again, hopefully we will have no onfield drama such as that. So, all right, so the one we mentioned already. Then Michigan heads up to East Lansing, to the I will say it the worst road trip in the big 10 The place I hate to play above all others you know to face the Spartans and again Again, they’re cliches for a reason. Okay. Throw out all the records. Because whatever is happening, whatever drama is happening in East Lansing, okay? They will be ready for this game and it will be brutal and it will be tough. And when what does the SP plus project for us there?

Clint Derringer 35:25
Right now in this game, SP plus likes Michigan by about three touchdowns by 22 points. Michigan State is the 46th ranked overall 30 Athan defense and 62nd on offense Now I personally think they’re going to have more problems on offense, I think their ranking is going to slide down. I just I don’t understand how they would get better on offense without Peyton Thorne, you know, he leaves and is now the starter at Auburn. And I think the guys behind them even though they wanted to create a Quarterback competition, I don’t think that they’re quite the same level as what Peyton Thorne was. And he takes a not only, I think more talent, but also is starting experience. So I don’t believe that they will be the 62nd ranked offense at this point in the season. And I don’t think that they’ll keep that ranking all the way through the end of the season. I think they’ll slide lower than that. However, there are also rumors swirling that this may end up in a primetime spot. We know that it’s going to be a hostile environment. And like you said, we know that this is going to be everything in the kitchen sink coming from the Spartans, and the emotion and adrenaline that pumps in these rivalry games is certainly going to be spilling out. There’s the added narrative, again of the incident in the tunnel from last year, that’s all going to get brought back up and who knows how that gets rehashed and talked about who knows what, who knows what player says something from either side and creates bulletin board material, right. So a lot of wildcards potentially going into that game. When it all is boiled away, and you’re just talking about the Football game, Michigan is is better on both sides of the ball. I think, again, make sure that you’re eliminate the major mistakes, where you’re not giving them extra opportunities. Certainly turnovers or or special teams blunders to give that team extra opportunities would be a huge unforced error, right, make that offense score more than 20 points against you. And I don’t think that they’ll be able to. So if you’re not handing points out like candy against that team, then I think Michigan will be able to stay clean and, and take care of business. I do expect at least something crazy to happen. So I think it’ll be a little bit closer than what SP plus thinks. I think right now. It’s something like 31 to 20. But this one, I really think the first half becomes the key to take that crowd out of it. At this point in the season. I’m not sure again, I haven’t looked at Michigan State’s schedule, but they will be cranked up in game, no doubt. But if you can really take them out of it early, make a couple big plays, shut down that offense and maybe get out to 10 nothing or 14 nothing lead, I think it’ll get quiet real quick. And that would make things a lot easier. So not only avoid big mistakes, but try to get off to a fast start and take that crowd out of it because I think they will be ready to fold up shop. If you can put some doubt in their mind about whether there’s an upset bro.

Phil Callihan 38:55
Well, hopefully Michigan can put a get a beating going and maintain it in the first half so that the Spartan faithful can get out of the stadium and start couch burning early. So again I hate it, I have no problem saying it. So again, hopefully, SP plus will carry us through. And I think you’re right. I mean, I think that the key here is maintaining the onslaught and enduring the toughness that the Spartans will try to bring whereas I don’t think that they have the talent, but they will definitely bring their best effort and and it will be a it will be it will be a very tough game. And hopefully again, Michigan can get up and again, play Football. Right and I think that’s the key. This is a game you got to play Football, slept the extracurriculars you know What’s not happened? Right? Ignore that ignore any provocation, either from the fans or from Spartans. And in Clint, you know this better than most that Michigan State in that stadium, the fans are right on top of you. Right there is, it is one of the unique features of that stadium is that the sidelines are not are the fans are right on top of you in the sidelines. So it definitely can add a little, a little sauce to the match. And Michigan will have to stay focused and play Football, you know, play Football and get out with the victory and get back to Ann Arbor. So I think we both agree that while there will be some challenges during these first eight games, we’re anticipating Michigan being undefeated, heading into this last third. And I’ll tell you this last third is really interesting to me, when I look when I look at these games. So you have the first third where Michigan is at home for four games. The second third where Michigan has, you know, to potentially tough road games, tough environments, a home game, and then a really tough road game, tough environment. And then you had to this last third, where Michigan has two home games and two road games. And I think some interesting opponents. So how does the SP plus project the first of those games Purdue at Michigan?

Clint Derringer 41:37
Yeah. So the first game, as you said is home against Purdue first game of this final stretch. I think it’s also important that the bye week comes after the Michigan State game and before the Purdue game. So as you’ve kind of slice this season into thirds, and we get through the second phase, that’s when you really get the breather. And I think that it’s a little later it feels a little bit later this year than I think in years past, it’s been closer to after six games, I think, in the past few years, or even earlier before that. So to get an extra week of rest at this point, I think is really critical. In terms of health, right? Everybody’s dinged up, nobody’s playing 100%. And I think we’ve got quotes from Michigan Running Back who says, you know, after the first, you know, after the first couple carries of fall camp that the running backs, not never 100% again. So to get the bye week there is really a big deal. And then to return home and play Purdue and this is a rematch of the big 10 championship game from last year. But Purdue is not the same program. Jeff Brom left went to Louisville and the defensive coordinator from Illinois last year Ryan Walters takes over. So right now Purdue is slotted in the 58th spot overall in SP plus, again back up in the top half. Probably going to move a lot under this new program, currently showing 53rd on offense and 55th on defense so very steady across the board in terms of rankings for Purdue all in the mid 50s. I think Ryan Walters is going to put together a defense that is better than 55th. I really like what he does. I like him as a coach. I think what he accomplished with Illinois defense in the last couple seasons is is really pretty commendable. So I expect Purdue to be better on defense than this preseason ranking. And if they do keep the mid 50s offense, or if it slides a little bit, then that that’s probably what I would expect. For this. I did not I don’t see Michigan piling up a bunch of points against Purdue for a couple of reasons. Number one, as I said, I think Ryan Walters have put together a pretty good defense. But also number two, the we know that while the players are very good at avoiding looking ahead. It definitely has a feel like the coaching staff likes to keep certain strategic plans, packages, schemes, personnel groupings in their pocket before big games. So with this game coming before a road trip to Penn State, I think Michigan will try to get through this game against Purdue and show as little as possible. So they may be somewhat boring here on offense. I think Purdue is going to be tough enough on defense to keep us right around 30 points, but I’m not sure Purdue’s got the firepower to really score that enough to make it overly scary. So I’m looking at something like 30 to 17, perhaps. And most of that I think will be self inflicted where Michigan is keeping a lot of their best offensive stuff in their back pocket going into the next week.

Phil Callihan 45:20
So, again, I think that Michigan will dispatch Purdue, I see it like you do. I think it may be. They may be limiting the playbook, shall we say, right. And I think that, at this point in the season, we may be seeing some players getting reps that an opportunity to play, shall we say, right? And then you had on the road to Penn State. Now, I gotta say, as as challenging as this game looks, I’m really surprised that this is a noon game. And I’m glad it’s a new game, because the last thing you want to be doing is heading to happy valley for 330 game white out or or night game. So I definitely, definitely think that plays in in Michigan’s helps them, you know, plays into that, right? So how does the SP plus project this game versus the Nittany Lions.

Clint Derringer 46:23
So this game is by far the toughest game that Michigan has, to this point in the schedule defense stay right now, in the preseason is ranked sixth overall, fifth on defense and 22nd on offense. Again, this for context, the second best team, to this point would have been Minnesota at 27. So you know, we’re talking a significant jump in a level of competition. And that holds true, really season over season in the Big 10. East, we know that the jump when you go from the bottom half of the big 10 East up to the top three against Penn State. Ohio State. So I don’t think that that’s wrong. You know, I think Penn State will continue to be a top 10. Team throughout the the entire season. I do believe they get they get the buckeyes before this game. I want to look at that again and make sure I remember that correctly. And also with on the road, like you said, the main highlight for me is head, Fox slotted this into the noon time slot well before the season started. So knowing that it’s not going to be a night game on the road is certainly one of the scheduling breaks that I would say Michigan got that I kind of alluded to earlier. And yes, yes. So Ohio State plays Penn State in Columbus, in the third week of October, three games before Michigan has to go to happy valley. So we’ll see what else they do against the rest of their schedule. They’ve got a couple challenges, but they very well could be, you know, eight and one heading into this spot. And it could be a top 10 matchup. I think that Penn State would be a lot scarier if their offensive line were any, anywhere close to what Michigan’s offensive line is. Penn State is really, really great on defense. I think Manny Diaz has a really, really good scheme. It’s a good coach. They’ve got top talent at all of the key positions and they have top talent in their backfield on offense. I think the for starters returning on the offensive line, I think there’s a tackle that’s getting some first round NFL draft buzz on their offensive line. But I just I still haven’t seen them dominate a really solid defense the way that Michigan has been able to in the past, the way that Ohio State’s been able to in the past, where the Georgia has been able to in the past. So I think Penn State is a really, really, really great team, that their Achilles heel still to me is the offensive line. And I think that will be the difference. Again, I think eventually Michigan’s defensive line, we’ll be able to make some big plays and key spots against the Nittany Lions. And the other comparison here, I think is going to be JJ McCarthy and drew our five star quarterbacks both going to be in a big spot and in that tense in that case, I think, you know, I like having JJ on our side as opposed to drew our on their side. So All right now I’ve got it penciled in as Michigan winning by about 10 points, something like 27 to 17. Probably a similar feel to parts of the game that we saw two years ago and 2021, when when Eric all scored, you know, late in the fourth quarter to put Michigan ahead, right now as P pluses, 5.6 points spread for Michigan. And I think they’ll be able to stretch that maybe 10 points or two scores. But this is going to be a pretty Titanic matchup. But most of the advantages still lean in Michigan’s favor. And the greatest advantage that Penn State could have had that home field advantage at night has really already been taken away by by the Fox TV group. So

Phil Callihan 50:51
I cannot over emphasize the difference. And the term is night and day, right. Literally, the difference between Penn State at night and during the day is incredible. Okay, tons of respect for Penn State, tons of respect for their fan base. But, but they’re at night is an absolute Zoo. And again, as you pointed out, I mean, I when that game came out, and it’s interesting, because I know, you know, we both know, people who are, who are on the Penn State side, and I know some other people on the Penn State side. And literally, there was shocked, like, when the time was announced, the quote was, that can’t be right. And, and again, it’s it’s okay, TV. You know, it’s nice that for once, Michigan is getting the break there. So, so All right. So after that, Michigan goes on the road to Maryland. And I hate this game. Clint. I hate this game. Okay. When I look at the entire season, okay. I see. I hate the Michigan State game because I hate Michigan State. But again, I think the talent wise is definite in Michigan’s favor. Okay. Michigan and Maryland. Okay. That was a really tough game last year. Okay. 34 to 27. Now, again, Maryland made it tight, late in the fourth quarter to make it that close. But again, 34 to 27. Okay. And that was at home. And here you have Michigan going on the road. And again, anticipating being undefeated, we anticipate Ohio State being undefeated. So they go on the road to a non traditional rival, right. Maryland is, shall we say? Not tradition heavy, okay. Not tradition laden. And yet, they, there are teams that play with no fear. Okay. And that is probably the best compliment that I can give to any team. and Maryland last year played with no fear, okay, they were not intimidated. Michigan was a better team, Michigan one, but they did not back down. And we have some other things happening here. You know, we have an experienced quarter cup Quarterback coming back from Maryland. You know, who is a really exciting player. You know, and I’m gonna do my best with his name here to Leah Tang lobola Tang, Hola. Hola. Okay. I may not be able to say it, but he’s a great player. Right? And then you have Josh Gattis showing up in Maryland. Right? Josh has had a hard time since he’s left the Wolverines. But he’s very familiar with what Michigan is trying to do. There are still Michigan players who refer to what Michigan is doing on offense as speed and space, which is something that Josh tried to was right at the forefront of implementing here, right. So Josh Gattis, left at some trouble and other places, is trying to rebound has a really talented Quarterback is familiar with the scheme. And again, it’s going to be really hard for Michigan to not be looking toward that Ohio State game. And I don’t like this game at all. I don’t like this. I’ll just say it so so how does the SP plus see this one?

Clint Derringer 54:51
SP plus his Michigan for error by 19 points right now. Maryland is the 41st ranked overall team mean 47th on offense, which is lower, much lower than I would have expected and 27th on defense. Those unit rankings kind of surprised me and I would not be surprised to see those kind of flip. By the time we’re getting into the 11th game of the season. Couple couple points. The game against Maryland last year was a legitimate concern. Like you said that the terrapins came into the big house and made a huge mistake. almost right away. I think Michigan scored something like six seconds into that game after kicking off, because Maryland fumbled the the opening kickoff and Michigan recovered, scored a couple plays later. And then the final score, you know, is one score game. So that and Clint

Phil Callihan 55:51
To clarify Michigan scored in one play 10 yards at the eight second mark.

Clint Derringer 55:57
Yeah, yeah, exactly. So I mean, they had they literally handed Michigan the first seven points of the game, and then continued to play you know, tooth and nail throughout the the entire four quarters. So that’s that’s one thing. That’s not a that’s not a slow start. And then halftime, the dam breaks kind of game at all. You already mentioned Talia tagovailoa tagovailoa. He is a very experienced Quarterback. He is always a threat to make big plays, he really can kind of scramble around in the pocket outside the pocket, always has his eyes downfield and is looking to make the big play. So he he can strike from really anywhere on the field. And they have talent at the skill positions to do that. For sure. Their their main challenge is in the trenches on both sides of the ball offensively and defensively. And that’s where Michigan’s advantage will be the greatest. The other big difference between what we saw maybe two years ago 2021. And last year 2022. If you remember, two years ago, this game at Maryland was in the same slot. It was in the trap game slot before Ohio State, the 11th game. And that’s really the time maybe the only time that we saw Donovan Edwards deployed in the passing game. The way that we hope to see in this year he had 10 catches as a true freshman, I think it was something like 159 receiving yards. You know, we started calling that the Donovan Edwards game, because we hadn’t seen the 22 Ohio State game yet. That that game 11 against Maryland, I think is what we could expect more this season, rather than the 22 version. Because Maryland historically, is very, very strong in the first half of this. Very strong they start hot, almost every September, they’re almost always three and Oh, four No. through September into October. And and then as adversity starts to hit, you know, for one case, you know, for one reason or another, they they don’t necessarily bounce back as strong last year, I would say was one of their better seasons in terms of not just folding up shop and packing it in on the season, including a bowl game when as well, last year, so maybe they’ve turned a corner as a program in terms of some of those mental toughness things. I do. give this game a little bit of caution as well with Josh Gattis being involved and kind of understanding the ins and outs of Mike MacDonald’s defense from 21 and the similarities with with Minter. So I think that there are some some definitely challenges here. But I, I don’t think Michigan will struggle in this game with Maryland the way they did in 2022 with Maryland, so I’ve got them winning by 14 points, something like 35 between one right now, maybe a little bit less, but then SP plus expects, but this one very likely, there is a chance that Michigan kind of breaks this one open, because there’s so much better in the trenches here.

Phil Callihan 59:29
All right, I will take that. I would love to see that. So we’re anticipating Michigan holding up their end of the bargain, being undefeated, heading into the Wii game this season at the big house with our fabulous new scoreboards and we will anticipate that Ohio State will sort out their Quarterback issues and that they will be undefeated. So how does the SP plus project November 20 The fifth noon v game shaking out

Clint Derringer 1:00:06
Right now, Michigan and Ohio State are separated by point two. In SP Plus, they’re effectively a toss up. Which means when Connelly if Connolly were to put this as a home game for Michigan, I think there’s usually a three point swing for home field advantage. He would say that Michigan will be favored as the rating state right now, but just on a neutral field, which is kind of what I used for the preseason article here. OSU by 0.2 points, so effectively, a coin toss. Ohio State is second overall one spot in front of Michigan to get razor thin margin if the number one offense as expected. Again, they still have the same very talented backfield. Mine Williams and treyvion Henderson very good running. We know the wide receiver room is the best in history and it’s not it’s not close the gap between number one and number two in terms of receiver talent is is very wide so that breaking in a new Quarterback. I don’t remember the last time that Ohio State picked a Quarterback that was not that was not strong. I just I cannot continue to believe that they’re luck’s gonna run out on finding quarterbacks even when they’re evenly matched. I thought JT Barrett was going to struggle. I thought Dwayne Haskins was going to struggle. I thought he was going to struggle. None of that happened. They were all very good. And I think Ryan day has a knack for coaching quarterbacks and his system is, is obviously very, very Quarterback friendly. So wins the battle. They’re Kyle McCord or Devin Brown. They’re gonna be very good. Maybe not Heisman contender like CJ Stroud. But even that wouldn’t shock me. So the key again, with this game is going to be Michigan’s offense, being able to withstand the onslaught that Jim Knowles is going to bring the game last year. The reason that the buckeyes like to try to boil that game down to just five big plays is because they they went full down Brown, right? They went through everything in the kitchen sink at Michigan’s offense to try to stop the running game. Especially

Phil Callihan 1:02:42
Was last year the game they lost because of the snow. Or did we have really good weather last year, I lose track of their excuses < Eye Roll >

Clint Derringer 1:02:50
Last year is the game that they would have won except for the five big plays whichever five they pick.

Phil Callihan 1:02:56
That’s right in the post game where the Ohio State beat writer asked Donovan about one of his long run long touchdown run.

Question 1:03:04
When you came came through the line, There was nobody there…

Donovan Edwards 1:03:06
Which one?

Clint Derringer 1:03:12
Exactly right. So I think Knowles is is going to do the same thing. I think he’s going to throw the the entire kitchen sink at Michigan’s offense to try to stop the running game. We will have to withstand that without making any big mistakes. I think Michigan, managed to do that that first touchdown on the kind of the hitch route to Calvin, or excuse me, Cornelius Johnson. Last year, was really the first backbreaker for them, because they did have a lot of momentum. And that particular play for JJ to stay alive in the pocket by backpedaling and then throw off his back foot, get it to Cornelius Johnson, who breaks a tackle and goes the whole way. That was that was the dam breaking right there. And then as as the game continued, The onslaught started to open up and Donovan Edwards really finished them off with 275 and ATR runs, so they’re gonna do the same thing. But that’s a high variance, you know, strategy, right? It worked in Michigan’s favor last year. And Michigan has to make sure that it works in their favor again this year. You cannot make the big mistake. Make the big turnover. Right in the game. against Penn State. We saw JJ throw a pic six against TCU. Of course we saw him throw pick six. So we have to avoid making the big mistake there for sure against Jim Knowles and maintain and be able to lean on them and continue to press their advantage and hopefully, we will have both Blake Oh man, Donovan Edwards available for this game. Not having Blake Edwards last year, really was, was obviously it really changed the dynamic of how Ohio State was allowed to attack Michigan. And Donovan Edwards still made them pay. So I like their chances to be able to do that again. I like the strategy defensively that Michigan has been able to put together to kind of bend but don’t break. Keep Ohio State, you know, between 20 and 30 has been the goal and they’ve done it both years, and they’ve won both years. So I expect Michigan to win this game at home. Right now I’m looking at something like 3933. But a very similar feel to what we’ve seen both of the last couple seasons, Ohio State is going to make some big plays, there’s gonna be a lot of haymakers back and forth. But I think they will run out of gas when, when kept under the pressure from Michigan, and eventually, Michigan will be celebrating again at the big house.

Phil Callihan 1:06:07
Well, again, I’m just glad that we can look forward to this game being played in the big house. We know how teams from down south struggle when they need to come into our northern weather. So, you know, I’ll just keep my fingers crossed, that the weather will be on our side because, you know, but again, looking forward to another amazing season. And it is awesome, that Michigan is this, that Michigan is in this position of not just reloading but being completely loaded, heading into the season, expectations are high. And again, just rolling incredibly deep on the roster. And, you know, as we as we alluded to earlier, you know, we wouldn’t be an offseason without some drama. And the NCAA is the is the publisher or the originator of the drama with you know, first Michigan and Jim Harbaugh negotiating a four game suspension and then that getting shot down and now it’s a three game suspension. So, game one defensive coordinator Jesse Minar, will be handling the head coaching duties. Game Two, they’ll be splitting between my card and J. Harbaugh game three, Sharon Moore will be stepping in for Jim Harbaugh Sharon Moore is also taking a one game suspension for game one and Jim Harbaugh has announced his dad as assistant head coach to oversee things. And Ben Herbert, Director of Franklin conditioning being an associate head coach. So again, you gotta love Coach Harbaugh tweaking the NCAA a little bit. I’m disappointed that he didn’t take out my idea of having celebrity head coaches, I would have loved to have seen Tom Brady and Charles Woodson, come back. But, you know, coach knows best. So. So in all seriousness, Clint, how do you think how do you perceive the self suspension playing with the NCAA? And how do you think it’s going to impact as we as we really head into the postseason, right? Because the thing with the NCAA is, is looming? It’s just been punted down to the offseason. How do you think this will impact that?

Clint Derringer 1:08:45
So yeah, starting from the back end, first, the NCAA is looking to make a statement. So Michigan kind of cuts the, you know, undercuts them here kind of pulls the rug out from under them a little bit by self imposing. Basically the same package that they had tried to negotiate with the NCAA, that the committee on infractions, then rejected. So by self imposing, typically, the NCAA either, you know, closes that case after that, or there are some minor additions on top of that, but in these cases, especially cases that are three and into four years old, the self imposed sanctions, many times are, that’s the end of it. I don’t think the NCAA is going to accept that i This has become somewhat personal, certainly personal for Jim Harbaugh. He certainly feels as if he is defending his honor, in some way, his reputation in many ways. So he’s, he’s not going to let it go. Of course, he’s saying accepted this self imposed sanction from the athletic department. But when the NCAA looks to kind of increase to make their point, and kind of make an example out of Jim Harbaugh, I expect the flame war to start right back up full force. And I think that most of this, we’ve seen is going to get hashed out even in the media. It’s not going to be investigators, and executives and negotiations quietly anymore. I think this has turned into a lot of posturing on both sides. So it’s, it’s now it’s kind of a PR battle. And I don’t know, I don’t know what the final result will be. I would, I tend to believe that Michigan’s case Harbaugh’s case is stronger, somehow in the in the eyes of a court or an arbitrator. So that just because the NCAA always seems to lose in court, and it certainly feels like they have, they feel they have a stronger hand. So my sense is that there’s not going to be a lot of tangible impact, above and beyond these three, this three game suspension. But that won’t stop the NCAA from trying to make it feel like it’s a big deal coming down the pike. And again, I think a lot of this probably gets hashed out as publicly as possible, because that’s really the only card they have to play.

Phil Callihan 1:11:42
So what I think is interesting about this is there was a lot of concern among Michigan fans, that by putting off the punishment, it was going to incentivize Jim Harbaugh to leave for the NFL right. Now, of course, that possibility still exists. But by getting ahead of it, and I guess, offering to serve, offering up time served, right? What I like about it is Michigan gets ahead of it. They kind of turned it into a positive, getting these other coaches an opportunity to hold the reins. And even if the NCAA comes back, and says to make a point, well, we’re going to punish you six games. Well, you already have three in the tank, right? And again, these, you know, these early season games are our minimum have a minimal impact, right. So I think it’s good. I think Michigan is getting ahead of it. And of course, as you said, and I completely agree with the illegitimate NCAA is trying to make a point here, and public sentiment is against them, which is interesting that while there, there are people on Twitter, primarily Michigan State fans who love to pile on Michigan and Jim Harbaugh, nationally speaking, the tide is definitely against the NCAA, which is kind of interesting. So, so yeah, so I think that’s gonna do it here for our season preview. You know, some other interesting news that came out is that Roman Wilson is moving to the number one jersey, so we will look to see how that goes. And other than that, Clint, do you have any final words?

Clint Derringer 1:13:35
Yeah, a couple things. On the last few points. I do have concerns on actual game day logistics of coaches taking on multiple roles, you know, and lack of consistency. I think the I’ve continued to praise the players for being able to compartmental put all of that craziness to the side and to just focus on playing Football. I think they’re certainly capable. Again, but you know, if there’s our mentalizing and, you know, holding the chaos off to the side, 90 times out of 100, you know, that one time that they don’t, is still going to hurt. So I really I understand, you know, the the battle with the NCAA, I agree with your point about self imposing and pulling the rug out from the NCAA is case, instead of letting all of this linger. I agree with that. I do still expect there to be some problems with coaches outside of their normal roles, you know, having kind of a weekly position, and that’s not going to have a great impact, right, even if Michigan plays well, and you can’t really tell on the scoreboard. It’s not helping, right this is not a positive thing. So, um, you know, we’ll see, we’ll see how it ends up. I am glad that Harbaugh is trying to spin it into attention for his assistant coaches, who is he he has said, he’s got 10 assistant coaches that he thinks can be head coaches, you know, I think he’s helping to try to promote them to the best of his ability. But in terms of that Saturday in September, is it’s just another distraction. And I wish that it wasn’t there, in the grand scheme of things. So that there’s that point. And then the smaller thing, of course, with Roman Wilson, switching from number 14, the number one, I thought, you know, the quote, that he had coming out of fall camp about it that went with the discovery of the position switches. So yeah, there’s a lot of pressure that comes with wearing number one and Michigan. And that’s what I wanted, you know, and again, we see another example of a Michigan player, kind of saying exactly what you would want to hear if you were a coach, or, you know, a hyper engaged fan, like like you and I, it seems like he is doing it with full understanding of what that entails number one, which of course we appreciate, but also that he is embracing the challenge of it and trying to take that head on. And I like that, like that competitor, like that competitive spirit. And I think that it portends well, for Roman Wilson, I think he’s looking for making a big, impactful jump. After a couple good seasons here. I think he’s looking to really jump up a level and really be a significant threat, especially in the vertical passing game. So looking forward to see what what he brings with how he backs up those words.