Author: Drew Montag

Quick Look

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they lost one and won one. On Tuesday (01/09/2018), they lost to (#5) Purdue 70-69 in Crisler Arena, then on Saturday (01/13/2018), they won at (#4) Michigan State 82-72. The loss and the win leave Michigan with a record of 15-4 (4-2 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

This week was SO CLOSE to being a perfect week. The win over MSU was huge, and very unexpected, but the loss to Purdue was heartbreaking. After trailing for most of the game, UM fought back in the closing moments of the Purdue game, only to have it stolen away by some lousy officiating. If the last 6.2 seconds of the game had been called correctly, Michigan could have won that game, but the officials blew it.

Purdue is a very good team, and they played very well. They outplayed Michigan for much of the game, and had a couple 14-point leads, but they couldn’t stop the relentless UM comeback in the 2^nd half. The game was all tied up (69-69) with 28 seconds left, and Michigan had the ball with no shot clock. They ran the clock down to 6 seconds, and drove in for the go-ahead layup, or at least a foul. Instead, Purdue knocked the ball away, and the officials (correctly) signaled that it was UM’s ball. No problem, still plenty of time to take a go-ahead shot. Actually, they could have called a reach-in foul on the knock-away, but instead they viewed the replay for almost 5 minutes, then gave the ball to Purdue! Absolutely wrong! They compounded the error with 4 seconds left on the clock when they called a foul on Michigan on a clean take-away. The Purdue player hit one of the two free throws, and Michigan’s last second heave from near half-court rimmed out. The Purdue players danced like they had won the National Championship, the boos rained down, and the officials hustled off the court, the damage done. They were terrible, just terrible.

If you had told me that UM would go 1-1 last week, I would have been positive that it was a home win vs. Purdue and a road loss at MSU, not the other way around. UM rarely wins at MSU, and MSU has a loaded team this season. The game was close most of the way, with UM holding a small lead most of the game. MSU led by 3 at halftime (37-34), but the lead changed hands several times in the first 11+ minutes of the 2^nd half. The turning point came at the 8:10 mark, with MSU up by one point (55-54). UM hit a 3-pointer, and never trailed again. Once Michigan got the lead up to 7-9 points, they kept it there. It was a very impressive win.

Stats

The stats for the Purdue game are actually pretty solid. Michigan shot pretty well overall (26-for-58 = 44.8%), they shot 3-pointers very well (10-for-22 = 45.5%), and they shot free throws reasonably well (7-for-11 = 63.6%). They won the rebounding battle (36-29) which is stunning, considering Purdue’s height advantage (a 7’2″ guy with a 7’3″ backup), but they lost the turnover battle (9-8). The reason Purdue won the game was their 3-point shooting (12-for-21 = 57.1%), including 5-for-5 to start the game, and 7-for-10 in the 1^st half. It was like a videogame for much of the 1^st half.

The stats for the MSU game are not nearly as impressive. Michigan shot decently overall (24-for-57 = 42.1%), they shot 3-pointers OK (6-for-15 = 40.0%), and they shot free throws pretty well (28-for-35 = 80.0%). Michigan lost the rebounding battle (31-32), but won the turnover battle big time (7-18). The important stat here is free throws. That’s where Michigan won the game. Why did Michigan shoot 35 free throws (and why did MSU shoot 32 free throws)? Because “TV Teddy” Valentine and his motley crew called 51 fouls in 40 minutes (25 against UM, 26 against MSU).

Who Looked Good

The starters for the Purdue game were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Charles Matthews, Duncan Robinson, Zavier Simpson, and Moritz Wagner. Isaiah Livers has been playing better than Robinson lately, so he got the start in the MSU game.

The star this week was definitely Wagner, with 11 points vs. Purdue, and a career-high 27 points vs. MSU, on 8-for-13 overall shooting (3-for-4 from 3-point range), and 8-for-8 shooting from the free throw line. He did a decent job defending the 7’2″ and 7’3″ guys from Purdue, and a great job defending the MSU centers.

If Wagner was “#1” this week, Simpson was “#1A”. He scored 15 points vs. Purdue (Michigan’s high scorer) and a career-high 16 points vs. MSU, had 5 assists in each game, and grabbed 6 and 4 rebounds. His only weak spot was free throw shooting: 1-for-2 vs. Purdue, and 5-for-10 vs. MSU. Michigan only missed 7 free throws vs. MSU, and he missed 5 of them. Sigh.

Matthews had a good week, with double figures in both games (14 and 10 points). He wasn’t very efficient (5-for-14 vs. Purdue, 3-for-10 vs. MSU), but he was UM’s leading rebounder (7) vs. Purdue.

MAAR had a pretty good week, with 7 and 14 points. He was also inefficient (3-for-9 and 3-for-11), but he did a good job on defense.

Livers hit double figures (10 points) off the bench vs. Purdue, and 6 points as a starter vs. MSU. He played hard in both games, and is becoming a solid defender. I really liked his dunk with 11 seconds left in the MSU game.

Jon Teske played in both games, and scored 0 and 4 points. He wasn’t much of a factor on offense, but he did play good defense, and he grabbed some important rebounds. He also gave Wagner a rest every now and then.

Jordan Poole continued to provide quality minutes off the bench, scoring 8 and 2 points.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Robinson played in both games, and didn’t do much. He scored 4 and 3 points, but was overwhelmed on the defensive end.

Eli Brooks played a few minutes in each game as the 2^nd point guard. He failed to score. He plays good defense, and he runs the offense pretty well, but he isn’t much of a factor offensively.

Who Else Played

Austin Davis played for 2 minutes in the MSU game, and failed to score. He did commit 2 fouls.

Who Didn’t Play

Jaaron Simmons, Ibi Watson, and the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) all failed to get into either game.

The Big Picture

This was a big week for Michigan, and it could have been even bigger. At 4-2 in Big Ten play, Michigan is right in the thick of things, but Purdue and (what?) Ohio State are both undefeated in league play and tied for 1^st place. They played both Purdue and MSU tough, and if they continue to play that well, they’ll finish in the top half of the Big Ten standings.

Predicted Win Total

Michigan won a “Should Lose” game and lost a “Toss Up” game. They’re at 15 wins, with 12 games left. If they can split those, that would be 6 more wins, so I’m moving the Predicted Win Total up one game.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 20

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

This week Michigan plays three games, all in the Big Ten. On Monday (01/15/2018, 6:30 p.m., FS1), Michigan plays Maryland in Crisler Arena, on Thursday (01/18/2018, 9:00 p.m. EST, BTN), they play at Nebraska, then on Sunday (01/21/2018, 12:00 p.m., BTN), they play Rutgers in Crisler Arena. Combined with the MSU game on 01/13/2018, that’s 4 games in 8 days.

Maryland is currently 14-5 (3-3 in the Big Ten). They don’t have any impressive wins, and their only embarrassing loss was to St. Bonaventure. Michigan should win this game, but it could be tricky.

Nebraska is currently 12-7 (3-3 in the Big Ten). They’ve got a few impressive wins (Minnesota, Northwestern, and Wisconsin), and a few unimpressive losses (St. John’s, UCF, and Penn State). It’s always tough to win on the road in the Big Ten, and I expect this game to be a tough one.

Rutgers is currently 11-8 (1-5 in the Big Ten). They’ve got a couple impressive wins (#15 Seton Hall and Wisconsin), and a couple embarrassing losses (Stony Brook and Hartford). After a few years as the doormat of the Big Ten, Rutgers is moving up in the standings a little. They aren’t the automatic win they used to be. They took MSU to overtime in Breslin last week before losing. I expect Michigan to beat them, especially in Crisler, but it won’t be as easy as it used to be.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Quick Look

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they won both of them. On Tuesday (01/02/2018), they won at Iowa, 75-68, then on Saturday (01/06/2018), they beat Illinois 79-69, in Crisler Arena. The two wins raise Michigan’s record to 14-3 (3-1 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

After playing two Big Ten games early in December (12/02/2017 win at home vs. Indiana, and 12/04/2017 loss at Ohio State), Michigan resumed Big Ten play in the new year with two solid wins against middle-of-the-pack teams. The Iowa game was a “toss up” game, but the Illinois game was a “should win” game. Regardless, they were games that Michigan was favored to win, and they took care of business. The Iowa win was definitely more impressive, since it’s tough to win on the road anywhere in the Big Ten, and Michigan hadn’t won in Iowa since 2011.

The early stages of the Iowa game were sloppy, with Iowa leading 10-7 at the 14:07 mark. Michigan went on a nice 22-4 run to build up a comfortable 15-point lead (29-14) with 8:11 to go in the half. Iowa crept back within 8 points (35-27), and Michigan answered with a 9-0 run to push the lead up to 17 (44-27), at the 4:02 mark. Iowa closed the half with a 9-4 run of their own, to make it a 12-point game at halftime, 48-36.

Iowa continued their run at the start of the 2^nd half, and pulled to within 7 points (48-41) with 17:23 to go. But, that was as close as they got the rest of the game, while Michigan pushed the lead as high as 17 points (71-54) along the way. Every time Iowa got the lead down under 10 points, Michigan answered with a run of their own to push it back into double digits. It was a solid, encouraging performance.

The first 13:25 of the Illinois game were really ugly. Heck, the first 15 seconds were ugly. Michigan won the opening tip, and threw the ball away on their first pass, then fouled trying to get the ball back. Michigan had 7 turnovers, 7 fouls, and 14 missed shots in the first 13:25 of the half, and trailed by 8 points (21-13). They finally settled down, and went on a 12-2 run to take the lead (25-23) with 4:06 to go. They still led by 2 points (31-29) with 1:58 left in the half, then let Illinois finish the half on a 5-0 run to lead by 3 at halftime, 34-31.

Michigan came out of the locker room fired up, and played some crisp basketball to start the 2^nd half. They quickly erased the Illinois lead, and went up by 5 points (41-36) before the 1^st media timeout. They pushed the lead up to 9 points (51-42) with 12:52 to go, and kept the lead in the 9-11 point range the rest of the way, winning by 10 points.

It seems weird to complain about the officiating in a 10-point win, but the refs for the Illinois game (Bo Boroski, Chris Beaver, and Kelly Pfeifer) were as bad as they get, even for the Big Ten. They called way too many fouls (22 on Illinois, 17 on Michigan, 39 total), many of them “phantom fouls”, and they were obsessed with offensive fouls. I don’t think their terrible officiating changed the outcome of the game, but it made it unwatchable at times.

Stats

The stats for the Iowa game are pretty impressive. Michigan shot well overall (28-for-57 = 49.1%), they shot 3-pointers very well (11-for-25 = 44.0%), and they shot free throws very well (8-for-10 = 80.0%). They just barely lost the rebounding battle (31-30), and they won the turnover battle (10-13). As I’ve said many times, when the 3-pointers are falling, this team looks great.

The stats for the Illinois game are also impressive. Once again, Michigan shot well overall (26-for-51 = 51.0%), they shot 3-pointers well (8-for-20 = 40.0%), and they shot free throws well (19-for-24 = 79.2%). They lost the rebounding battle again (31-27), and they won the turnover battle again (15-17). 15 turnovers is a lot for this team, but they managed to do enough other things right to win the game.

Who Looked Good

The starters for the Iowa game were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Eli Brooks, Charles Matthews, Duncan Robinson, and Moritz Wagner. Zavier Simpson has been playing better than Brooks lately, so he got the start in the Illinois game.

MAAR had a big week, with double figures in both games (15 and 13), and lots of other nice stats: 11 rebounds (7 and 4), 10 assists (6 and 4), and 4 steals (2 and 2). That’s called “stuffing the stat sheet”.

Matthews was the only other starter to hit double figures in the both games (14 and 10), but he just barely made it in the Illinois game. He’s the player who got the 1^st foul, 15 seconds into the game, so he sat for a while. He came back in 6 minutes later, and picked up his 2^nd foul in less than a minute, so he sat for the rest of the half. He started the 2^nd half, and managed to play about 3 minutes before picking up his 3^rd foul on a VERY questionable offensive foul call. This was probably the worst call we’ve seen this season, and it really got the crowd riled up. When Matthews finally got back in at the 11:31 mark, he managed to avoid any more fouls, and he finally got to play and score.

The only other player to hit double figures in both games wasn’t a starter, it was Isaiah Livers. He looked great in both games, with 13 and 12 points. It wasn’t just the number of points he scored, it was how and when he scored them. In both games, he scored important baskets to either stop an opponent’s run, or to start an important Michigan run. All of his baskets were big, and he hit a nice combination of 3-pointers and emphatic dunks. To top it all off, he shot a very nice percentage in both games: 5-for-6 overall (3-for-3 from 3-point range) vs. Iowa, and 5-for-7 overall (2-for-3 from 3-point range) vs. Illinois.

Most of the other starters each had one good game and one so-so game. Robinson had 5 points vs. Iowa, but came back for 13 points vs. Illinois. Wagner had 4 points vs. Iowa, and looked rusty again, but scored 14 points vs. Illinois, and finally looked a little like his old self.

Simpson had 15 off the bench vs. Iowa, but only had 5 points as a starter vs. Illinois.

Jordan Poole came off the bench in both games, and had one so-so game (3 points vs. Iowa) and one good game (11 points vs. Illinois). He and Livers sparked a nice UM comeback late in the 1^st half of the Illinois game.

Jon Teske played in both games, and scored 6 and 0 points. He wasn’t much of a factor on offense, but he did play good defense, and he grabbed some important rebounds. He also gave Wagner a rest every now and then.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Brooks was the only starter (vs. Iowa) who didn’t have a very good week. He played 8 minutes vs. Iowa, and 4 minutes vs. Illinois, and failed to score. Simpson has definitely passed him, for now.

Jaaron Simmons played 4 minutes in the Illinois game, and scored 1 point. He didn’t play vs. Iowa. He continues to slide down the bench.

Who Else Played

Ibi Watson played in both games, and failed to score.

Who Didn’t Play

Austin Davis and the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) all failed to get into either game.

The Big Picture

These were two important wins for Michigan. UM has to win as many of the games against the unranked Big Ten teams as they can, because the games against the ranked teams are coming right up. Michigan State and Purdue look like the two teams to beat in the Big Ten this season, so Michigan is playing for 3^rd place.

Predicted Win Total

Michigan won a “Should Win” game and a “Toss Up” game, and they’ve won enough “Toss Up” games to move the Predicted Win Total up one game.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 19

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

This week Michigan plays two games, both in the Big Ten. On Tuesday (01/09/2018, 9:00 p.m., ESPN), Michigan plays (#13) Purdue in Crisler Arena, then on Saturday (01/13/2018, 12:00 p.m., FOX), they play at (#1) Michigan State.

Purdue is currently 15-2 (4-0 in the Big Ten), with a couple impressive wins (Arizona and Louisville) and a couple less-than-impressive losses (Tennessee and Western Kentucky, both on a neutral floor). Their 4 Big Ten wins aren’t very exciting (at Maryland, Northwestern, Rutgers, and Nebraska), but they’ve won handily. They still have their incredibly tall center (Isaac Haas, 7’2″) and an even taller freshman with a similar name (Matt Haarms, 7’3″). Teske is going to be busy. Michigan can beat Purdue, but they’ll need to play their best game so far this season to do it.

Ah, our old friends, Michigan State. We only play them once this season, in East Lansing, and that’s probably a good thing. They are loaded this season, and could really stomp on UM if things get out of hand. They are currently 15-2 (3-1 in the Big Ten), with one understandable loss, to (#2) Duke on a neutral court, and one surprising loss, at unranked Ohio State. They’ve beaten a couple very good teams already this season (North Carolina and Notre Dame), and they’ve won their Big Ten games handily, other than OSU. Michigan stands very little chance in this game, and keeping it close late in the 2^nd half would be a moral victory.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Happy New Year. Let’s hope 2018 is a good year for Michigan athletics.

Quick Look

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played one game last week, and they won it. On Saturday (12/30/2017), they beat Jacksonville 76-51 in Crisler Arena. The win raises Michigan’s record to 12-3 (1-1 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

This was the last of the “guarantee” games for Michigan, and they played well enough to win, but not well enough to dominate. The game started out slow and sloppy, with more turnovers than made baskets. Michigan never trailed, but they only led by 4 points (11-7) with 10:52 left in the 1^st half. They finally pushed the lead into double digits (21-9) with 7:30 to go in the half, and never let it get below 10 points the rest of the game. The lead was 14 at halftime (32-18), and stayed in the 13-15 point range for the first 8:00 of the 2^nd half. At that point, UM started pulling away, and kept the lead up over 20 points for the last 8:00 of the game.

Stats

The stats for the game are reasonable, but certainly not dominating. Michigan shot pretty well overall (31-for-55 = 56.4%), they shot 3-pointers fairly well (8-for-23 = 34.8%), and they shot free throws OK (6-for-9 = 66.7%). They lost the turnover battle (14-9), which very rarely happens, but they really won the rebounding battle (41-23).

Who Looked Good

The starters were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Eli Brooks, Charles Matthews, Duncan Robinson, and Moritz Wagner. Jon Teske had been starting in place of Wagner, who missed 2 games with a foot injury he sustained in the Texas game.

MAAR was the high scorer for Michigan, with 20 points. He was perfect from the floor (7-for-7 overall, 2-for-2 from 3-point range), and he even had 3 rebounds and 2 assists.

Matthews also had a good game, with 18 points, including a couple thunderous dunks. He was Michigan’s leading rebounder, with 7.

The other starter in double figures was Robinson, with 12 points. He didn’t shoot particularly well (5-for-10 overall, 2-for-6 from 3-point range), but he had some timely baskets.

The only other Michigan player in double figures was Jordan Poole, with 10 points. Of course, 8 of those 10 points were scored in the last 4:00, during “garbage time”, but they all count.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Wagner looked rusty and hesitant out there. He played 20 minutes, and only scored 7 points, the only time he hasn’t hit double figures this season. He also had a season-high 4 turnovers.

Brooks had another 0 point game, his 5^th so far this season. In the last 4 games, he has scored 0, 4, 0, and 0 points.

The backup point guard, Zavier Simpson, didn’t do much better. He scored 2 points, but he did have 5 assists.

Teske had a quiet game, with 2 points and 6 rebounds.

Isaiah Livers didn’t do much with his 12 minutes off the bench: 2 points.

Jaaron Simmons played 3 minutes, and failed to score. He continues to slide down the bench.

Who Else Played

Austin Davis only played 3 minutes, and failed to score.

Ibi Watson played 4 minutes, and scored 3 points.

Who Didn’t Play

None of the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) played in this game.

The Big Picture

After 2 dominating wins over inferior opponents (Detroit and Alabama A&M), it was discouraging to see Michigan muddle through an uninspired win over another opponent they should have crushed. Chalk it up to rust (they had 9 days off between games) and a Christmas break “hangover”.

Predicted Win Total

Michigan won a “Should Win” game, so the Predicted Win Total doesn’t change.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 18

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

Mid-Term Grades

With 15 games down, and at least 16 more to go, it’s time for mid-term grades.

Freshman Eligibility

C.J. Baird (Inc.) – C.J. is a practice squad player. He’s played in 2 games, and has scored 2 points.

Eli Brooks (C+) – Eli has played in all 15 games this season, and started the last 11. He has scored 52 points (3.5 pts/game), and has 26 assists. He hasn’t been bad, but he hasn’t been that good either. He tends to disappear out there.

Austin Davis (C-) – Austin has played in 8 games, all off the bench, and has scored 15 points (1.9 pts/game). He still looks slightly dazed when he’s out there, like the game is still going too fast for him. He has plenty of potential, and good tools, he just needs to put it all together.

Isaiah Livers (C+) – Isaiah has played in all 15 games this season, all off the bench, and has scored 45 points (3.0 pts/game). He plays hard when he’s out there, and he shows flashes of why he was Mr. Basketball in Michigan last season, but he’s still learning the college game. He shoots too many 3-pointers for the percentage he makes (6-for-21 = 28.6%).

Naji Ozeir (Inc.) – Naji is a practice squad player. He’s played in 2 games, and has scored 2 points.

Rico Ozuna-Harrison (Inc.) – Rico is a practice squad player. He’s played in 1 game, and hasn’t scored yet.

Jordan Poole (B-) – Jordan has played in 13 of the 15 games so far this season, all off the bench. He has scored 82 points (6.3 pts/game), and is shooting a pretty good percentage from 3-point range (15-for-39 = 38.5%). He plays hard when he’s out there, but he still makes some dumb freshman mistakes. Once he cleans that up, he’ll be a very valuable player on this team.

Luke Wilson (Inc.) – Luke is a practice squad player. He’s played in 2 games, and hasn’t scored yet.

Sophomore Eligibility

Brent Hibbitts (Inc.) – Brent is a practice squad player. He’s played in 5 games, and has scored 9 points. Brent was redshirted his freshman season, and is a redshirt sophomore.

Charles Matthews (A) – Finally, an “A”! Charles has been very good this season, starting all 15 games, and leading the team in scoring (242 points, 16.1 pts/game). He is also the 2^nd leading rebounder (77), and 2^nd on the team in assists (48) and blocked shots (9). He is very athletic and acrobatic, with excellent body control. It’s fun to watch him play when he decides to take over a game. Charles was redshirted last season, due to transfer rules, and is a redshirt sophomore.

Zavier Simpson (B-) – Zavier was the starting point guard for the first 4 games, before Coach Beilein switched to Eli Brooks. He has played in all 15 games, and has scored 67 points (4.5 pts/game). He is shooting a nice percentage from 3-point range (9-for-21 = 42.9%), and is 3^rd on the team in assists (42). He is a better defender than Brooks, and I’m kind of surprised that he hasn’t won back the starting point guard position.

Jon Teske (B-) – Jon has played in all 15 games this season, and started 2 of them, when Wagner was injured. He has scored 67 points (4.5 pts/game), and leads the team in blocked shots (11). He has been fine in his role as the backup center, and he looks a little more confident out there compared to last season.

Ibi Watson (C-) – Ibi has played in 14 of the 15 games this season, all off the bench, and has scored 46 points (3.3 pts/game). When he’s in the game, his role is to shoot 3-pointers, and he’s done that pretty well (9-for-22 = 40.9%). He just can’t seem to get off the bench very often.

Junior Eligibility

Moritz Wagner (B) – This season has been a little disappointing for Moe, especially compared to last season. He’s played in 13 of the 15 games so far, all as a starter, but he missed 2 games with a foot injury. He’s 2^nd on the team in scoring (194 points, 14.9 pts/game), and he leads the team in rebounds (97). He has shown flashes of the brilliance he showed last season, especially in post-season play, but he has had long stretches of mediocre play. He has also been victimized on defense pretty often, and has given way to Teske for defensive reasons. If he can regain the magic he had at the end of last season, he can take Michigan far.

Senior Eligibility

Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (A-) – The only other “A” at this point. MAAR has started all 15 games, and is 3^rd on the team in scoring (159 points, 10.6 pts/game). He’s shooting a decent percentage from 3-point range (24-for-62 = 38.7%), and he’s tied for the lead in free-throw percentage (21-for-24 = 87.5%). He has been pretty steady out there, and has played some good defense, but he’s been a quiet leader on a team that might occasionally need some firing up.

Duncan Robinson (B) – Duncan has started all 15 games this season, and he’s the 4^th leading scorer (156 points, 10.4 pts/game). His role is clear: he’s the designated main 3-point gunner, and he’s been a little off this season. His 3-point shooting percentage is decent (34-for-91 = 37.4%), but we know that he’s capable of shooting 50-60%, not 37.4%. He had a terrible shooting slump for 3-4 games, but he appears to have broken out of it. If he can get his 3-point stroke back, he can take this team to the next level.

Jaaron Simmons (D) – Jaaron was supposed to be the starting point guard on this team. He has failed miserably. He has played in 13 games, all off the bench, and has scored 15 points (1.2 pts/game). At this point, it makes more sense to give most of the minutes to the two point guards of the future, Brooks and Simpson.

What’s Next

This week Michigan plays two games, both in the Big Ten. On Tuesday (01/02/2018, 7:00 p.m. EST, ESPN2), Michigan plays at Iowa, then on Saturday (01/06/2018, 12:00 p.m., BTN), they play Illinois in Crisler Arena.

Iowa is currently 9-6 (0-2 in the Big Ten), with no impressive wins, and a couple embarrassing losses (Louisiana and South Dakota State on a neutral court). It’s hard to win on the road in the Big Ten, so this will be a challenging game, but Michigan stands a good chance.

Illinois is currently 10-5 (0-2 in the Big Ten), with one decent win (Missouri), and one embarrassing loss (Eastern Illinois, in their exhibition game). They lost both of their early Big Ten games in overtime. This should be a close game, but Michigan should be favored at home.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Merry Christmas, if that’s what you’re into, otherwise, Happy Holidays.

Quick Look

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played one game last week, and they won it. On Thursday (12/21/2017), they beat Alabama A&M 97-47 in Crisler Arena. The win raises Michigan’s record to 11-3 (1-1 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

Make no mistake: Alabama A&M is one of the worst teams in Division I basketball. They are now 0-12 on the season, and they stood no chance against Michigan. They were scheduled as an easy “guarantee” game right before Christmas, and that’s how it played out. Michigan led the whole way, but AAMU kept it close for the first few minutes. Once UM got the lead up over 10 points, the rout was on. Everyone got to play, and it was an easy, low-stress game.

Stats

The stats for the game are about what you would expect, except for free throw shooting. Michigan shot very well overall (36-for-60 = 60.0%), they shot 3-pointers very well (15-for-32 = 46.9%), but they were terrible from the free throw line again (10-for-18 = 55.6%). They won the rebounding battle (31-28), and they really won the turnover battle (12-25). Those are the kind of stats you’d expect in a blowout.

Who Looked Good

The starters were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Eli Brooks, Charles Matthews, Duncan Robinson, and Jon Teske. Moritz Wagner was still out with a foot injury. He probably could have played, but he wasn’t needed, so he got more rest.

The undisputed star of the game was Matthews, with a career-high 31 points, on very efficient shooting: 12-for-15 overall, 2-for-5 shooting 3-pointers. He even shot free throws pretty well: 5-for-7.

Robinson has snapped out of his shooting slump, which is a big relief. He had 18 points, and also shot efficiently: 6-for-8 overall, 5-for-7 shooting 3-pointers.

The other starter in double figures was MAAR, with 14 points. He also shot very efficiently: 5-for-6 overall, 4-for-5 shooting 3-pointers.

Even though Teske only scored 7 points, he played well. He had 4 rebounds and 2 blocked shots, and he played solid defense. Michigan didn’t need him to score much in this one, which was fine.

Isaiah Livers had his best game so far. He almost hit double figures (9 points), and he was the leading rebounder (7). He hustled all over the floor, and he was very active on defense.

Austin Davis looked OK out there as the backup center. He still had too many fouls (3 fouls in 12 minutes), but at least he didn’t foul out of this game, after getting 5 fouls in 7 minutes in the UDM game last week. He scored 4 points, got 5 rebounds, and even had a blocked shot.

Jordan Poole did what he was supposed to do: he played hard and fast, and looked for his shot. Unfortunately, he didn’t hit many of his shots (1-for-3), and only scored 4 points.

Ibi Watson is another player who is supposed to generate “instant offense”. He scored 6 points on 2-for-5 shooting.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Brooks was the only starter who didn’t have a very good game. He had 0 points, but he did dish out 4 assists, with 0 turnovers.

After a few good games, Zavier Simpson had an off night. He also had 0 points, and a couple turnovers.

Jaaron Simmons played 8 minutes, and failed to score. He continues to slide down the bench.

Who Else Played

Other than Wagner, who was injured, everyone played.

C.J. Baird scored 2 points.

Brent Hibbitts didn’t score, but he had an assist.

Naji Ozeir scored 2 points.

Rico Ozuna-Harrison was just added to the team in the last week. He’s a 5’11”, 165 pound freshman guard, and he’ll be part of the scout team. He failed to score, but he did get a rebound.

Luke Wilson failed to score.

The Big Picture

We can’t learn much from a lopsided blowout of an inferior opponent, but at least Michigan took care of business, and didn’t “play down” to the competition.

Predicted Win Total

Michigan won a “Should Win” game, so the Predicted Win Total doesn’t change.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 18

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

This week Michigan only plays one game. On Saturday (12/30/2017, 6:00 p.m., BTN), Michigan plays Jacksonville in Crisler Arena.

Jacksonville is currently 4-10, and is a notch better than Alabama A&M, but still not a serious threat to Michigan. Their wins have all been against other weak teams, and they’ve lost a few to weak opponents.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Quick Look

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they won both of them. On Tuesday (12/12/2017), they won at Texas 59-52, then on Saturday (12/16/2017), they beat Detroit 90-58 in Little Caesars Arena in Detroit. The two wins raise Michigan’s record to 10-3 (1-1 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

These two wins are a bigger deal than they would appear. The win at Texas was Michigan’s first true road win, after losing their first two road games (at North Carolina and at Ohio State). True, they have won away from Crisler Arena (in Maui), but this was their first win in a hostile environment. Now, Texas isn’t a Top-25 team, and they have some glaring flaws, but this was still very much a “toss up” game, and Michigan won it convincingly.

On the other hand, the win over UDM (University of Detroit-Mercy) was less of a surprise. Michigan is much better than UDM, and it showed. The challenge was to avoid “playing down to the competition”, and to avoid getting rattled by a hostile crowd at a not-really-neutral site. Michigan did both very well.

The Texas game started slowly. Really slowly. With 15:40 left in the 1^st half, the score was 2-0, Texas. At that point, Michigan finally scored (a 3-pointer) to go up 3-2, and they never trailed again, but it was still slow: 12-6 with 8:26 left in the half. The last 8:26 were closer to a normal game, and Michigan led 32-20 at halftime. Texas had a good run (14-5) to start the 2^nd half, and got within 3 points (37-34) with 14:11 left. UM promptly hit three 3-pointers in a row, to take the lead back up to 12 (46-34) with 12:02 to go. That was enough of a lead to last them the rest of the game. Texas got as close as 6 points (56-50), with 29 seconds left, but it was too little too late, and Michigan won by 7.

The UDM game was much easier. Michigan never trailed, and pulled away steadily from the opening tipoff. They got the lead up to 10 points (14-4) with 12:37 to go in the 1^st half, up to 21 points (34-13) with 6:13 left, and up to 31 points (48-17) with 2:00 to go. They led by 35 (54-19) at halftime. They pushed the lead as high as 39 points in the 2^nd half, and won by 32 points. It was an easy, dominating victory.

Stats

The statistics for the Texas game are pretty weak for an impressive road win. Michigan shot pretty poorly overall (22-for-55 = 40.0%), they shot 3-pointers pretty poorly (6-for-19 = 31.6%), and they shot free throws decently (9-for-12 = 75.0%). They won the rebounding battle big time (40-31), and tied in the turnover battle (10-10). All those extra rebounds made the difference.

The statistics for the UDM game are not as impressive as you’d expect for a 32-point blowout. Michigan shot decently overall (34-for-72 = 47.2%), they shot 3-pointers well (11-for-23 = 47.8%), but they shot free throws pretty poorly (11-for-19 = 57.9%). They won the rebounding battle (44-37), and they really won the turnover battle (9-23).

Who Looked Good

The starters for the Texas gams were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Eli Brooks, Charles Matthews, Duncan Robinson, and Moritz Wagner. Wagner got hurt in the 2^nd half of that game, so Jon Teske started in his place in the UDM game.

Among the starters, only two hit double figures in both games: Robinson had 10 and 11 points, and Matthews had 12 and 20 points. Robinson still isn’t hitting 3-pointers like he used to, but he did better this week: 1-for-3 and 3-for-4. Matthews had 8 and 7 rebounds to go with his points.

Wagner only started (and played) in one game, and he had 10 points when he got hurt.

Teske only started one game, and he had a career-high 15 points and 10 rebounds, for a double-double. He played in the Texas game, but failed to score. He did a fine job filling in for Wagner.

MAAR had a weird week. He was UM’s high scorer in the Texas game, with 17 points, and he also had 10 rebounds, for a double-double. Then he came back and only scored 2 points vs. UDM.

Two bench players hit double figures: Zavier Simpson and Jordan Poole, both against UDM. They both had 12 points. Coincidentally, they both had 4 points in the Texas game.

Ibi Watson played in both games. He failed to score in the Texas game, but he had 7 points vs. UDM. He’s not afraid to shoot when he’s in there.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Brooks was the only starter who didn’t have a very good week. He had 0 and 4 points, and may have fallen behind Simpson in the Point Guard Derby.

Isaiah Livers has had a rough couple of weeks. Once again, he didn’t score much (2 and 0 points), but he did play decent defense, and grabbed some rebounds (3 and 6).

Jaaron Simmons only played in the UDM game, and he only scored 3 points, all on free throws. He continues to slide down the bench.

Austin Davis didn’t play in the Texas game, but he was the backup center in the UDM game, with Wagner out. He scored 4 points in 7 minutes, and managed to foul out. It’s not easy to commit 5 fouls in 7 minutes, but he did it.

Who Else Played

Brent Hibbitts played in the UDM game, but failed to score.

Who Didn’t Play

The bench players (C.J. Baird, Naji Ozeir, and Luke Wilson) didn’t play in either game.

The Big Picture

These 2 wins were both very encouraging. The Texas win was encouraging because it was Michigan’s first true road win, and the UDM win was encouraging because Michigan beat an inferior opponent soundly, instead of “playing down to the competition”.

Predicted Win Total

Finally: a reason to increment the Predicted Win Total. Michigan now has 10 wins, with 2 more fairly certain wins left on the non-conference schedule (see below). They should resume Big Ten play in January with a record of 12-3, so my previous Predicted Win Total (16) seems a bit pessimistic. Looking at the Big Ten schedule at this point, here’s how it breaks down:

• Should Win (4) – Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, Penn State.
  
• Should Lose (4) – Michigan State, Purdue (away), Wisconsin (away), Maryland (away).
  
• Toss Up (8) – Iowa (both), Purdue (home), Maryland (home), Northwestern (both), Minnesota, Ohio State (home).
  

So, if Michigan can split the “toss up” games, that would give them a league record of 9-9.  Since they’re already 1-1, that means 8-8, which added to 12-3, works out to 20-11.  I still think that’s too high, but 16 was too low.  Let’s split the difference.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 18

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

This week Michigan only plays one game. On Thursday (12/21/2017, 9:00 p.m., ESPNU), Michigan plays Alabama A&M in Crisler Arena.

Alabama A&M is currently 0-11, and is easily the worst team that Michigan will play this season. They have lost to some pathetic competition, and stand no chance vs. Michigan. This game was scheduled to give UM an easy game after finals and before the Christmas break.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!