Author: Drew Montag

Quick Look

The (#22) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they won both of them. On Wednesday (02/14/2018), they beat Iowa 74-59 in Crisler Arena, then on Sunday (02/18/2018), they beat (#8) Ohio State 74-62, also in Crisler Arena. The 2 wins raise Michigan’s record to 22-7 (11-5 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

These two games were Michigan’s last two home games of this season, and they were a great way to finish the home schedule. Michigan ended up 15-1 at home this season, with the lone loss coming on a controversial (read: miserable) last-second call by a trio of inept Big Ten refs vs. Purdue. Michigan would have won that game with competent officiating, but 15-1 is still a great record.

Michigan was a strong favorite in the Iowa game, and they took care of business, but the game against OSU was a toss-up, and it was a solid, impressive victory.

The Iowa game started as so many UM games have this season: slowly. In less than two and half minutes, Michigan was already down 7-0, with one missed shot and three turnovers. Michigan finally got going, and went on a quick 12-4 run to take the lead, 12-11, with 14:53 left in the 1^st half. Iowa got the lead back for the last time, 14-12, then it was all Michigan. They went ahead for good (17-14) at the 12:23 mark, and never trailed again. The Michigan lead got as high as 13 points (37-24) in the 1^st half, right at halftime, and as high as 18 points (66-48) with 5:33 left in the game. It was a solid, straightforward win over an overmatched opponent.

The OSU game was very exciting. It was Senior Day, and Crisler Arena was sold out. Other games have been officially listed as “sold out” (attendance = 12707), but this one had a butt in almost every seat. It was a good crowd, and one of the louder crowds in the last few years, and Michigan gave them something to be loud about. UM played hard and smart, they hustled and scrapped, and they controlled the game.

A few words about Andrew Dakich: after being on Michigan’s team for 4 years and redshirting his senior year, he graduated and went to Ohio State for his “grad transfer” year. While he was liked when he was at Michigan, the crowd wasn’t willing to forgive him for his poor choice in grad schools. They booed every single time his name was announced, and they booed every single time he touched the ball. They held their breath all 3 times he drove to the basket for what looked like a sure layup, and they cheered wildly all 3 times when he missed. He ended up with 0 points, 0 assists, 1 turnover, and 1 foul in 22 minutes. He certainly didn’t hurt Michigan.

Michigan managed to avoid their traditional slow start vs. OSU. There were 4 ties and 8 lead changes in the first 13 minutes, with neither team able to get more than 4 points ahead. Michigan finally grabbed the lead for good (20-18) with 7:15 to go in the 1^st half, and never trailed again. The lead got as high as 8 points (33-25) with 1:09 to go in the 1^st half, and UM led by 5 (33-28) at halftime. OSU got within 2 points a couple times early in the 2^nd half (36-34 and 38-36), and they were only down by 3 (55-52) with 7:53 left in the game. That’s when Michigan went on a brilliant 10-1 run to put the game out of reach, 65-53 with 3:15 left. UM kept the lead in double digits the rest of the way, and won convincingly.

Stats

The stats for the Iowa game are decent, but nothing special. Michigan shot pretty poorly overall (28-for-67 = 41.8%), they shot 3-pointers pretty well (12-for-33 = 36.4%), and they shot free throws poorly (6-for-12 = 50.0%). They tied in the rebounding battle (33-33), but they won the turnover battle handily (6-16). Those 10 extra possessions really helped, but it was 3-point shooting that won the game.

The stats for the OSU game are a little better. Michigan shot pretty well overall (25-for-52 = 48.1%), they shot 3-pointers decently (7-for-20 = 35.0%), and they shot free throws well enough (17-for-24 = 70.8%). They lost the rebounding battle badly (40-30), but they won the turnover battle convincingly (7-14). After losing a couple games at the free throw line, they won this one there. They outscored OSU 17-9 in free throws. If the refs are going to call 39 fouls (22 on OSU, 17 on UM), the team that makes their free throws is going to have a distinct advantage.

Who Looked Good

The starters were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Isaiah Livers, Charles Matthews, Zavier Simpson, and Moritz Wagner for both games.

MAAR is closing out his Michigan career on a high note. He was the star (and high scorer for UM) in both games, with 18 and 17 points. He was also Michigan’s leader in assists in both games, with 7 and 3. He had a nice, solid game on his Senior Day.

Wagner also hit double figures in both games, with 14 and 12 points. He could have had more, but he was in foul trouble (4 fouls) in both games, only playing 24 and 23 minutes. His biggest contribution in the OSU game was when he knocked the ball away on defense, then got in the middle of a wild scrum at mid-court going for the loose ball. He didn’t get it, but he did get the crowd REALLY fired up. It was as loud as I’ve heard it in Crisler in years.

Simpson had a up-and-down week. He scored 0 points vs. Iowa, then had a great game (13 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 0 turnovers) vs. OSU.

Duncan Robinson was the other star of the Iowa game, with 18 points, all from 3-pointers. He shot 6-for-8 from 3-point range, and singlehandedly pulled Iowa out of their zone defense. Of course, since he had a great game vs. Iowa, he had to have an “off” game vs. OSU: 4 points, all on free throws, 0-for-3 from the floor. Since it was his Senior Day, everyone was just waiting for him to start raining 3’s, but they wouldn’t drop for him.

Jordan Poole was yet another Michigan player who had an up-and-down week. He had 2 points (on free throws) vs. Iowa, then exploded for 15 points (on 4-for-5 shooting from 3-point range) vs. OSU. He really got the crowd fired up.

Jon Teske scored 4 and 5 points, and played very good defense. He’s getting more and more confident out there.

Jaaron Simmons did a nice job backing up Simpson at point guard, and scored 5 and 2 points. He was the 3^rd active player honored on Senior Day.

He didn’t play, and he hasn’t played in 3 years, but the 4^th senior honored on Senior Day was Austin Hatch. He dressed for the game, warmed up with the team, and was announced as a 6^th player and captain when the starting lineup was introduced. He got a very warm, emotional ovation.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Matthews has been in a slump for several weeks, with occasional flashes of brilliance buried in long stretches of mediocrity. He manages to hit double figures every other game or so, but only on heavy shot volume. He did it again this week: 10 points (on 4-for-16 shooting) vs. Iowa, and 6 points vs. OSU. Still, he was Michigan’s leading rebounder in both games (8 and 7), and he played some good defense.

Livers had a quiet week: 3 and 0 points. He played some good defense, but he sure isn’t scoring.

Who Else Played

No one else played.

Who Didn’t Play

Eli Brooks, Austin Davis, Ibi Watson, and the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) didn’t get into either game.

The Big Picture

Michigan is pretty much a lock for the NCAA Tournament at this point. Now, they get a chance to improve their seeding. With their current resume, they would probably be an 8 or 9 seed, which means a probable 2^nd round game against a #1 seed. They would like to climb up to a 5 or 6 seed, which leads to a more winnable 2^nd round game. They have 2 games left in the regular season to improve their seeding.

Predicted Win Total

With 2 wins last week, Michigan has caught up to my Predicted Win Total from last week (22). They have 2 games left in the regular season, both on the road, and I expect them to win at least one of them, so I’m bumping up the Expected Win Total again.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 23

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

Michigan plays 2 games this week, both on the road. These are Michigan’s last 2 games of the regular season. On Wednesday (02/21/2018, 7:00 p.m., BTN), Michigan plays at Penn State, then on Saturday (02/24/2018, 12:00 p.m., ESPN), Michigan plays at Maryland.

Each Big Ten team plays 18 conference games. The game vs. PSU will be Game #17 for Michigan this season, and it is the first and only time they play Penn State. Weird scheduling. Penn State is currently 19-10 (9-7 in the Big Ten), with 2 impressive wins (Ohio State, twice), and a few embarrassing home losses (Wisconsin, Rider, and Minnesota). UM can win this game, but they need to play their “A” game.

Michigan has already played Maryland once, back in mid-January, just 2 days after UM’s big emotional win at Michigan State. In that game, Michigan came out flat, fell behind, clawed their way back into the game, and won it by one point in the final seconds. Since that time, Maryland has gone 4-5, with no notable wins or losses. This is another game that Michigan can win, but they’ll need to play very well. Teams don’t like to lose on Senior Day.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Quick Look

The (#20) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they lost one and won the other. On Tuesday (02/06/2018), they lost at Northwestern 61-52, then on Sunday (02/11/2018), they won at Wisconsin 83-72. The loss and the win leave Michigan with a record of 20-7 (9-5 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

The good news: Michigan managed to win one of their two road games last week. One out of two ain’t bad. The bad news: While any road win in the Big Ten is a good win, that doesn’t mean that any road loss is understandable or forgivable. While the win in Madison is a big deal, the loss in Evanston was extremely embarrassing. It was right up there with the loss at Nebraska a couple weeks ago as the worst loss of the season. Michigan appeared to have the game under control, and led for the entire 1^st half, by as many as 10 points. They had a small lead at halftime (32-29), and held the lead until the 17:12 mark, when Northwestern went ahead for the first time, 35-33. Michigan never led again, falling behind by 10 points. They went stone cold, and let the game just slip away. Being held to 20 points in the 2^nd half by Northwestern is disgraceful.

The win at Wisconsin is a big deal. The Kohl Center has been a “house of horrors” for Michigan, with only one previous win since 2000, in the 2013-2014 season. Sure, Wisconsin is way down this season, but they’re still tough at home, and they really wanted to beat Michigan. Unfortunately for them, Michigan started the game hot, built a big lead, and managed to protect it down the stretch. UM never trailed, and led by 22 at halftime (44-22). They built the lead up to 25 points (53-28) at the 14:50 mark, and still led by 23 points (58-35) with 12:15 to go. That looked like an insurmountable lead, until Wisconsin went on a 12-0 run in just over 3 minutes to cut the lead to 11 points (58-47) with 8:52 left. The rest of the way, Michigan kept the lead in the 10-12 point range, but Wisconsin got as close as 7 points (79-72) with 39 seconds left, before Michigan put the game away with a 4-0 run.

Stats

The stats for the Northwestern game are horrible. Michigan shot terribly overall (17-for-44 = 38.6%), they shot 3-pointers terribly (5-for-22 = 22.7%), but they did shoot free throws reasonably well (13-for-19 = 68.4%). They were out-rebounded by Northwestern, again (32-27), and they lost the turnover battle (9-6). Only hitting five 3-pointers is disgraceful. It was just plain embarrassing.

The stats for the Wisconsin game are much better. Michigan shot well overall (28-for-50 = 56.0%), they shot 3-pointers well (9-for-20 = 45.0%), and they shot free throws pretty well (18-for-24 = 75.0%). They crushed Wisconsin on the boards (33-23), and they tied in the turnover battle (8-8). Michigan won this game with 3-point shooting.

Who Looked Good

The starters were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Isaiah Livers, Charles Matthews, Zavier Simpson, and Moritz Wagner for the Northwestern game, with Duncan Robinson starting in place of Livers for the Wisconsin game, after Livers injured his foot/ankle early in the Northwestern game.

Wagner was the star of both games. He averaged a double-double, with 20 points in each game and 9 and 11 rebounds. He was pretty efficient shooting (7-for-10 and 8-for-14), including 3-for-6 shooting 3-pointers in the Wisconsin game.

The only other Michigan player who hit double figures in both games was MAAR, with 11 and 15 points.

Robinson had a good game vs. Wisconsin (16 points), but was one of many Michigan players who had a miserable game vs. Northwestern (3 points). He hit 4-for-7 shooting 3-pointers vs. Wisconsin.

Matthews was the only other player to hit double figures in one game this week, with 11 points vs. Wisconsin. He had 5 points vs. Northwestern.

Simpson didn’t score much (6 and 4 points), but he did lead Michigan in assists in both games, with 5 and 6.

Jordan Poole provided some “instant offense” off the bench, with 5 and 8 points. He didn’t shoot well in the Northwestern game (1-for-6), but he did a little better vs. Wisconsin (2-for-4).

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Jon Teske had a quiet week: 0 and 4 points. He did a decent job spelling Wagner.

Eli Brooks played in the Northwestern game, but didn’t take a shot. He didn’t play in the Wisconsin game.

Jaaron Simmons didn’t play in the Northwestern game, but he did play in the Wisconsin game, and scored 3 points.

Ibi Watson played in both games, and scored 0 and 2 points.

Who Else Played

Livers only played 2 minutes, and scored 2 points, in the Northwestern game before he got injured. He didn’t play in the Wisconsin game.

Austin Davis played in the Wisconsin game (0 points) but not in the Northwestern game.

Who Didn’t Play

The practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) didn’t get into either game.

The Big Picture

It was a weird week, with one of the worst games this season (Northwestern) and one of the biggest road victories in a while (Wisconsin). At this point, Michigan is solidly in the NCAA Tournament, but they have to win a few more games to sew it up.

Predicted Win Total

The Northwestern game was a “toss up” game, but the Wisconsin game was a “should lose” game, so I’m bumping up the Predicted Win Total.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 22

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

Michigan plays 2 games this week, both at home. On Wednesday (02/14/2018, 6:30 p.m., BTN), Michigan plays Iowa, then on Sunday (02/18/2018, 1:00 p.m., CBS), they play (#13) Ohio State.

Think way back; Michigan played at Iowa way back in early January (01/02/2018), and beat them 75-68. Since then, Iowa hasn’t done much. They’re currently 12-15 (3-11 in the Big Ten), with wins over Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and losses to everyone else. Michigan should be able to win this one, as long as they play a solid game.

Think even further back; Michigan played at Ohio State way back in early December (12/04/2017), and lost to them 71-62. Since then, OSU has been the biggest surprise in the Big Ten in the last 20 years. They were predicted to come in last in the Big Ten, and they are currently all alone in 1^st place (13-1 in the league, 22-5 overall). Their only Big Ten loss was at home vs. Penn State, and they’ve beaten all the other contenders (Michigan State, Purdue, and Nebraska), and everyone else. This will be a tough game for Michigan, but they can beat OSU. They’ll need to play a flawless game, but they can do it. It’ll be Senior Day, so there will be a lot of emotion.

OSU’s game vs. Michigan back in December was a turning point in their season. Michigan was up 20 points (43-23) with 1:31 left in the 1^st half, and cruising to an easy win. That was the moment when OSU turned their season around. They finished the half with a 7-0 run, then started the 2^nd half with a 19-3 run to take the lead. The game was tied 60-60 with 3:38 left, and OSU closed the game on an 11-2 run for the win. They haven’t looked back since.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Quick Look

The (#24) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they won both of them. On Monday (01/29/2018), they beat Northwestern 58-47 in Crisler Arena, then on Saturday (02/03/2018), they beat Minnesota 76-73 (in overtime) in Crisler Arena. The two wins raise Michigan’s record to 19-6 (8-4 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

These were two of the ugliest wins of the season for Michigan. Both Northwestern and Minnesota are going to finish in the bottom half of the Big Ten standings, and both games were at home with a decent amount of rest. In both games, Michigan started out shooting terribly, and had to claw their way back into the games. They managed to avoid the upset, twice, but slow starts like that are very dangerous in a lose-and-go-home environment like the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments.

So, how bad were the beginnings of both games? Really bad. Against Northwestern, Michigan immediately fell behind 4-0 in the first 90 seconds, pulled within one point (4-3), fell behind by 4 again (7-3), pulled back within 2 points (7-5), then went for almost 6 minutes without a point. With 9:15 left in the first half, they still only had 5 points, in 10:45 of “action”. During that almost 6 minute scoreless stretch, they missed 5 shots (4 of them 3-point attempts) and had 2 turnovers. Fortunately, Northwestern also went cold at the same time, and only led by 9 points (14-5). At that point Michigan finally woke up, and ended the half on a 16-5 run to lead 21-19 at the break. UM opened the 2^nd half with some decent offense, and pushed their lead up to 8 points (32-24) with 16:21 to go. They went cold again, and let Northwestern back into the game with a 6-0 run, to make it just a 2-point UM lead (32-30) with 14:33 to go. UM pushed the lead back up to 7 points (39-32 at the 11:34 mark), let it slip back to 3 points (41-38 with 10:12 left), then pushed up to 10 points (48-38 with 5:24 to go). Once they got the lead up to double digits, they never let it slip below 7 points (52-45 at the 2:58 mark), and won by 11 points. Michigan never trailed in the 2^nd half, but they also never really put Northwestern away. They just kept the lead in the 8-10 point range for the last 5 minutes and ran out the clock.

The start of the Minnesota game was almost as bad as the Northwestern game. With 15:53 to go in the 1^st half, Michigan was down 8-2, shooting 1-for-6. They trailed the entire 1^st half, but they never let Minnesota get more than 6 points ahead. They were only down 2 points (34-32) at halftime, and they finally got their first lead (38-37) with 16:15 to go. It didn’t last long, and Minnesota used a 13-2 run to go up by 10 points (50-40) with 11:15 left in the game. Michigan inched closer, but Minnesota was still up by 7 points (56-49) at the 6:34 mark. Michigan went on an 8-0 run to take the lead again (57-56) with 3:13 to go, and it looked like they had enough of a lead (63-58) with 0:28 to go, when the lousy Big Ten refs took over. Michigan got the ball in cleanly, and while the Minnesota players were chopping away at the Michigan player, trying to commit an intentional foul, the refs called traveling! It was easily the worst call I’ve seen this season, and it gave Minnesota a chance to try a long 3-pointer to tie the game, which they did. Overtime was just as tense, but Michigan led most of the time, and scored the game-winning “and-one” basket with 0:04 to go.

It seems weird to say this about a losing opponent, but Minnesota has got to be the luckiest team I’ve seen in years. They hit very low percentage shots time after time in this game: spinning, out-of-control, just-throw-it-up prayers that banked in off the glass or spun around the rim 3-4 times before dropping. Michigan played pretty good defense, and forced Minnesota into long, contested, low-percentage 2-point shots, just as they hoped to, but Minnesota kept hitting them. Overall, Minnesota had exactly the same shooting percentage as Michigan (28-for-63 = 44.4%), but they hit about 80% of their “circus shots”.

Stats

The stats for the Northwestern game are miserable. Michigan shot poorly overall (21-for-50 = 42.0%), they shot 3-pointers very poorly (7-for-25 = 28.0%), and they shot free throws decently (9-for-14 = 64.3%). They were out-rebounded by Northwestern (34-28), but made up for it in the turnover battle (5-16). That’s how Michigan won the game: forcing Northwestern turnovers.

The stats for the Minnesota game are even worse than the Northwestern stats. Michigan shot a little better overall (28-for-63 = 44.4%), but they shot 3-pointers terribly (8-for-32 = 25.0%), and they shot free throws like they were blindfolded (12-for-28 = 42.9%). They did win the rebounding battle (43-36), and they tied in the turnover department (6-6). They should have lost this game with free throw shooting like that, but all those extra rebounds saved them.

Who Looked Good

The starters were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Isaiah Livers, Charles Matthews, Zavier Simpson, and Moritz Wagner.

MAAR was the hero of the Minnesota game, hitting the game-winning basket (and one) with 0:04 left, and he had double figures in both games (11 and 17). He was Michigan’s high scorer in the Minnesota game.

Matthews was the only other player to hit double figures in both games (14 and 13). He was Michigan’s high scorer in the Northwestern game, and he had 11 rebounds in the Minnesota game, for a double-double.

Wagner almost hit double figures in both games (8 and 16), and he had 10 rebounds vs. Minnesota for another double-double. He might have shot a few too many 3-pointers vs. Minnesota (3-for-9), but he’s a streak shooter, so he needs to keep shooting.

Duncan Robinson also almost hit double figures in both games (8 and 10). He had a rough time shooting 3-pointers (0-for-6 and 1-for-3), but he was 3-for-3 and 2-for-3 shooting 2-pointers. He was also the only Michigan player who didn’t miss a free throw (1-for-1) vs. Minnesota.

Simpson had a mediocre game vs. Northwestern (4 points), but a much better game vs. Minnesota (15 points). He had a terrible time shooting 3-pointers in the Minnesota game (1-for-8), but that one that he made was huge.

Jordan Poole came out firing in both games, with mixed results. He was 3-for-10 (2-for-6 from 3-point range) for 8 points vs. Northwestern, then 0-for-4 (all from 3-point range) for 0 points vs. Minnesota. It’s a shame he laid an egg in the Minnesota game, since the Maize Rage showed up in beachwear for a “Poole Party”. He tried, and he played hard, but he just couldn’t get anything going.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Livers had a quiet week: 3 and 5 points.

Jon Teske also had a quiet week: 2 and 0 points.

Eli Brooks played in both games, but didn’t take a shot in either, at least officially. He did put up a layup in the Minnesota game, but Teske interfered with it so it didn’t count.

Who Else Played

No one else played.

Who Didn’t Play

Just when it looked like Jaaron Simmons was established as the backup point guard, Coach Beilein switched back to Brooks. Simmons didn’t play at all this week.

Austin Davis, Ibi Watson, and the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) didn’t get into either game.

The Big Picture

Sure, Michigan won two more games, but it was very worrisome the way they did it. These were teams that Michigan should have dominated and beaten easily, but they didn’t. Four of Michigan’s last six games are on the road, and if they play like they did last week, they could easily lose all four of them. The slow starts have to go. So does the lousy free-throw shooting. Robinson has to start hitting 3-pointers again. If Michigan can get back to the form they showed when they beat Michigan State (in East Lansing!), they can beat everyone remaining on their schedule.

Predicted Win Total

Both games last week were “toss up” games, and Michigan won both of them, so I’m going to move the Predicted Win Total up one game. Wait, they’ve already won 19 games, and they’ve got 6 games left. Am I saying that they’re going to go 2-4 down the stretch? Yeah, I guess so, since four of those games are on the road.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 21

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

Michigan plays 2 games this week, both on the road. On Tuesday (02/06/2018, 7:00 p.m. EST, BTN), Michigan plays at Northwestern, then on Sunday (02/11/2018, 1:00 p.m. EST, CBS), they play at Wisconsin.

Didn’t we just play Northwestern? Yup, and we beat them, but not very convincingly. They won their next game (at Wisconsin), so they’re now 14-10 (5-6 in the Big Ten). Michigan can win in Evanston, but they have to clean up some of their bad habits: slow starts and poor free-throw shooting.

Wisconsin is currently 10-15 (3-9 in the Big Ten), with no impressive wins, and no embarrassing losses. They are WAY down from the last few years, but they are still dangerous. The Kohl Center has been a House of Horrors for Michigan recently, which is why I listed this game as a “Should Lose” game before the season. Considering who they have already lost to at home (Ohio State [83-58], Nebraska, and Northwestern), they are no longer unbeatable at home. Michigan stands a decent chance, if they can play a solid game.

Remember that stretch where Michigan played 4 games in 8 days? Well, it’s Wisconsin’s turn to do something like that. They play 4 games in 10 days. They already lost to Northwestern at home last Thursday (02/01/2018) and lost to Maryland on the road last Sunday (02/04/2018), then they play at Illinois on Thursday (02/08/2018) before playing Michigan at home on Sunday (02/11/2018). They should be good and tired when they play Michigan.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Quick Look

The (#25) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played one game last week, and they lost it. On Thursday (01/25/2018), they lost at (#3) Purdue 92-88. The loss lowers Michigan’s record to 17-6 (6-4 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

This one was a shootout, and Purdue had more offensive firepower than Michigan. It was like a videogame (NCAA Jam 2K18?), with lots of 3-pointers and monster dunks, and not a lot of defense. Purdue led for most of the 1^st half, including halftime (41-36). The lead changed hands a lot in the 2^nd half, until Purdue went ahead for good at the 8:35 mark. Michigan hung around, and the Purdue lead was only 3 points (85-82) with 0:31 to go, but that was as close as UM could get.

Stats

The stats for the game are amazing. Michigan shot very well overall (35-for-58 = 60.3%), they shot 3-pointers very well (13-for-23 = 56.5%), but they didn’t shoot free throws very well (5-for-9 = 55.6%). They (surprisingly) won the rebounding battle (25-21), but lost the turnover battle (11-10). Purdue won the game at the free throw line: they got there often, and made their free throws (19-for-23 = 82.6%).

Who Looked Good

The starters were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Isaiah Livers, Charles Matthews, Zavier Simpson, and Moritz Wagner. Four of them hit double figures (all but Livers). MAAR was Michigan’s high scorer with 26 points, Simpson had 16, Wagner had 15, and Matthews had 10.

Jon Teske did his best trying to slow down Purdue’s twin monsters (7’2″ and 7’3″), and he even scored 8 points along the way.

Jordan Poole and Duncan Robinson each had 5 points.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Livers only scored 3 points. He played decent defense.

Jaaron Simmons played for 3 minutes and didn’t attempt a shot.

Who Else Played

No one else played.

Who Didn’t Play

Eli Brooks, Austin Davis, Ibi Watson, and the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) didn’t get into the game.

The Big Picture

This was a game that Michigan stood very little chance of winning, but they gave it a good shot. Those kind of shooting numbers will win most games, even on the road, but Purdue is red-hot right now. There’s no need to be upset, disappointed, or worried about this result.

Predicted Win Total

The Purdue game was a “Should Lose” game, and Michigan lost it. No change to the Predicted Win Total.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 20

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

After playing three games 2 weeks ago, and only one game last week, this week Michigan is back to their regular schedule of playing 2 games. On Monday (01/29/2018, 7:00 p.m., FS1), Michigan plays Northwestern, then on Saturday (02/03/2018, 2:30 p.m., FOX), they play Minnesota. Both games are in Crisler Arena.

Northwestern is currently 13-9 (4-5 in the Big Ten), with no impressive wins, and no embarrassing losses. They have really underperformed so far this season. A lot was expected of them. Michigan should be able to beat them, but they’ll have to play a solid game. No coasting.

Minnesota is currently 14-9 (3-7 in the Big Ten), with no impressive wins, and no embarrassing losses. They have also really underperformed so far this season, including 2 losses to Northwestern. Just like the Northwestern game, Michigan should be able to beat them, but they have to play well.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Quick Look

The (#23) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played three games last week, and they won two and lost one. On Monday (01/15/2018), they beat Maryland 68-67 in Crisler Arena, on Thursday (01/18/2018), they lost at Nebraska 72-52, then on Sunday (01/21/2018), they beat Rutgers 62-47 in Crisler Arena. The two wins and one loss leave Michigan with a record of 17-5 (6-3 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

Wait, what made this a “brutal week”? Winning 2 out of 3 is pretty good, right? It’s tough to win on the road in the Big Ten, right? Well, yes, 2 out of 3 ain’t bad, and it is tough to win on the road in the Big Ten, but it was the way Michigan played this week that made it “brutal”. Combined with the (glorious) win over Michigan State last Saturday (01/13/2018), Michigan played 4 games in 8 days, 2 of them on the road, and they showed it. They played with “tired legs” and a distinct lack of crispness. They made way too many physical and mental errors that they hadn’t made in weeks. They should have beaten Maryland by 20 – 25 points, not one point. They should have battled Nebraska to the final possession, with a 50-50 chance to win it at the end, not lose by 20. They never should have fallen behind Rutgers by 6 points (8-2) with 6 minutes gone in the game. They were just off all week, and they were lucky to win 2 out of 3 games.

The Maryland game was very frustrating. After the huge win at MSU just 2 days before, the crowd was just waiting for a reason to cheer, and the team refused to give it to them. Turnovers. Missed layups. Bricked wide-open 3-pointers. Dumb fouls. The first 27 minutes were miserable. Maryland led for the entire 1^st half, by as many as 14 points, and for the first 7 minutes of the 2^nd half. Michigan got their first lead (42-41) with 13:02 left in the game, then gave it away again (47-46) with 10:40 to go. They got it back again (49-47) 13 seconds later, and led the rest of the game, until the final seconds. In the part of the game where Michigan caught up to Maryland, Michigan hit five 3-pointers in a row in about 2 minutes. That finally gave the crowd something to cheer about. Things were looking pretty solid, with Michigan leading by 5 (66-61) with only 25 seconds left, but Maryland hit two 3-pointers, and Michigan missed a pair of free throws, and suddenly Maryland led by one point (67-66) with only 3.5 seconds left. Fortunately, Maryland fouled Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman as he drove to the basket with 1.2 seconds left, and he hit both free throws to win the game. It was very exciting, but it shouldn’t have been. Michigan should have won this game easily, not by one point in the last second.

The Nebraska game was horrible, just horrible. Michigan made way too many mistakes, and handed the game to Nebraska. With 13:51 to go in the 1^st half, UM hit a 3-pointer to get their last lead, 12-10. They missed a shot, committed 2 turnovers, and made another basket. At that point (11:10 left in the 1^st half), they were only down 4 points (16-12). They then proceeded to miss 8 shots in a row, and commit 3 more turnovers. The next time they scored was a pair of free throws with 5:05 left, to pull within 8 points (24-16). They finally made a basket with 3:43 to go, which got them within 9 points (28-19), and they limped into halftime down 11 points (32-21). The big turning point in the game came early in the 2^nd half. Michigan hit a basket to pull within 8 points (35-27) with 17:43 to go. Nebraska shot and missed, and Charles Matthews got the rebound cleanly. He stood there for a couple seconds, deciding who to pass it to, then he threw it right to a Nebraska player. The Nebraska player didn’t do anything sneaky to steal the ball, Matthews threw it right to him. To make things even worse, he just stood there and watched as the Nebraska player ran past him for an uncontested layup. He just froze. That was the game right there. Michigan never got any closer than 12 points, and Nebraska kept the lead in the 16-18 point range for most of the rest of the game. It was the worst game Michigan has played in a while.

At least the Rutgers game was a solid win. It wasn’t pretty, and it wasn’t as easy as the final score would suggest, but it was a solid win. In the early going, both teams had trouble scoring, with Rutgers leading 8-2 with 14:02 left in the 1^st half. Yes, Michigan had scored 2 points in the first 6 minutes of the game. They made their first shot, then missed 9 shots in a row. They missed layups, short jumpers, and open 3-pointers. They got the shots they wanted, they just couldn’t get them to fall. Michigan finally got the lead back (13-10) with 10:35 to go, and they never trailed again. They led by 6 at halftime (27-21), and finally got a double-digit lead (37-27) at the 15:34 mark. They never let the lead get below 7 points, and kept it in the 12-14 point range for most of the rest of the game.

Stats

The stats for the Maryland game are not very impressive. Michigan shot pretty poorly overall (25-for-61 = 41.0%), they shot 3-pointers pretty well (11-for-26 = 42.3%), and they shot free throws pretty poorly (7-for-12 = 58.3%). They lost the rebounding battle (36-30), but they won the turnover battle (6-12). The 3-point shooting is what won the game for Michigan.

The stats for the Nebraska game are embarrassing. Michigan shot terribly overall (21-for-56 = 37.5%), they shot even more terribly from 3-point range (4-for-18 = 22.2%), and they shot free throws pretty poorly (6-for-10 = 60.0%). They won the rebounding battle (32-29), but they lost the turnover battle (12-9). Poor shooting and turnovers – not a good combination.

The stats for the Rutgers game are mediocre. Michigan shot poorly overall (23-for-54 = 42.6%), they shot 3-pointers poorly (8-for-25 = 32.0%), and they shot free throws pretty well (8-for-11 = 72.7%). They tied in the rebounding battle (33-33), and they won the turnover battle (9-13). Michigan won this game with defense, not offense. They held Rutgers to even worse shooting (17-for-51 = 33.3% overall, 2-for-9 = 22.2% from 3-point range).

Who Looked Good

The starters this week were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Isaiah Livers, Charles Matthews, Zavier Simpson, and Moritz Wagner.

No one had a great week this week. A few players had 2 good games, but no one had 3 good games. Wagner had 18 points (and 11 rebounds, for another double-double) vs. Maryland, and 16 points vs. Rutgers, but he only had 2 points (on 1-for-5 shooting) vs. Nebraska.

Similarly, Matthews had 15 points vs. Nebraska (the only Michigan player in double figures), and 10 points vs. Rutgers, but only 7 points vs. Maryland.

The only other players with double figures this week were Simpson (5, 3, and 10), Jordan Poole (11, 5, and 4), and Duncan Robinson (6, 0, and 12).

MAAR got close to double figures (7, 9, and 6), and he did hit the 2 clutch free throws to win the Maryland game.

Livers also got close to double figures in 2 games (7 and 8 points), then laid an egg (0 points) vs. Rutgers. Once again, he played good, solid defense.

As usual, Jon Teske didn’t score much (5, 2, and 2), but he did play good defense, and he grabbed some important rebounds. He also gave Wagner a rest every now and then.

Jaaron Simmons is now the backup point guard, and he did a decent job spelling Simpson with 2, 4, and 2 points.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Eli Brooks played in the Maryland and Nebraska games, and failed to score. He didn’t even get into the Rutgers game. He is now the 3^rd point guard, behind Simpson and Simmons.

Who Else Played

Ibi Watson didn’t play in the Maryland game, but he did get into the Nebraska and Rutgers games. He scored 4 points vs. Nebraska, and 0 vs. Rutgers.

Who Didn’t Play

Austin Davis and the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) all failed to get into any of the games this week.

The Big Picture

Michigan doesn’t know how to handle prosperity. They finally got ranked last week, and they came out and played 3 lousy games, even though they won 2 of them. In close games, they work hard to get a defensive stop at a key moment, then throw the ball away. They don’t seem to understand the importance of momentum, both in an individual game and in the season as a whole. I don’t think they’re intentionally throwing the ball away or trying to lose key games, but I don’t think they understand how a key play can change the entire complexion of a game, and how a key win can turn around a whole season. It’s very frustrating to watch them play hard, have things under control, then just throw it all away with a dumb turnover or a missed easy layup.

So, Michigan survived their “hell week” (4 games in 8 days) with a 3-1 record, including their signature win against MSU. They probably don’t stand a chance of catching Purdue or Ohio State, but they could still finish as high as 3^rd place in the Big Ten, if they can get back to the level of play they had vs. Purdue and MSU 2 weeks ago.

Predicted Win Total

I had the Nebraska game as a “Should Win” game, even though it was on the road. Michigan had never lost to Nebraska, and they crushed Nebraska 93-57 last year in Lincoln, so I figured they should win again this year. Wrong. I had the Rutgers game as a “Should Win”, and the Maryland game as a “Toss Up”. At the halfway point in the Big Ten season, here’s what’s left on Michigan’s schedule:

• Should Win (1) – Penn State.
  
• Should Lose (3) – Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland.
  
• Toss Up (5) – Iowa, Northwestern (both), Minnesota, Ohio State.
  

At 17-5 (6-3), if Michigan wins the game they should win, loses the games they seem destined to lose, and goes 3-2 in the “Toss Up” games, that would give them a record of 21-10 (10-8). I’m going to leave the Predicted Win Total right where it is.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 20

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

After playing three games last week, this week Michigan only plays one game. On Thursday (01/25/2018, 7:00 p.m., ESPN), Michigan plays at (#3) Purdue.

Michigan just played Purdue in Crisler Arena 2 weeks ago, and they lost by one point on a questionable out-of-bounds call in the final seconds. It’s going to be a lot harder to stay with Purdue in their house. They are currently 19-2 (8-0 in the Big Ten), and riding a 14-game win streak. On the one hand, if Michigan plays like they have since the MSU game, they’ll get blown off the court. On the other hand, if they play like they did at MSU, they can beat Purdue, even on the road.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!