Author: Drew Montag

Quick Look

The (#23) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played three games last week, and they won two and lost one. On Monday (01/15/2018), they beat Maryland 68-67 in Crisler Arena, on Thursday (01/18/2018), they lost at Nebraska 72-52, then on Sunday (01/21/2018), they beat Rutgers 62-47 in Crisler Arena. The two wins and one loss leave Michigan with a record of 17-5 (6-3 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

Wait, what made this a “brutal week”? Winning 2 out of 3 is pretty good, right? It’s tough to win on the road in the Big Ten, right? Well, yes, 2 out of 3 ain’t bad, and it is tough to win on the road in the Big Ten, but it was the way Michigan played this week that made it “brutal”. Combined with the (glorious) win over Michigan State last Saturday (01/13/2018), Michigan played 4 games in 8 days, 2 of them on the road, and they showed it. They played with “tired legs” and a distinct lack of crispness. They made way too many physical and mental errors that they hadn’t made in weeks. They should have beaten Maryland by 20 – 25 points, not one point. They should have battled Nebraska to the final possession, with a 50-50 chance to win it at the end, not lose by 20. They never should have fallen behind Rutgers by 6 points (8-2) with 6 minutes gone in the game. They were just off all week, and they were lucky to win 2 out of 3 games.

The Maryland game was very frustrating. After the huge win at MSU just 2 days before, the crowd was just waiting for a reason to cheer, and the team refused to give it to them. Turnovers. Missed layups. Bricked wide-open 3-pointers. Dumb fouls. The first 27 minutes were miserable. Maryland led for the entire 1^st half, by as many as 14 points, and for the first 7 minutes of the 2^nd half. Michigan got their first lead (42-41) with 13:02 left in the game, then gave it away again (47-46) with 10:40 to go. They got it back again (49-47) 13 seconds later, and led the rest of the game, until the final seconds. In the part of the game where Michigan caught up to Maryland, Michigan hit five 3-pointers in a row in about 2 minutes. That finally gave the crowd something to cheer about. Things were looking pretty solid, with Michigan leading by 5 (66-61) with only 25 seconds left, but Maryland hit two 3-pointers, and Michigan missed a pair of free throws, and suddenly Maryland led by one point (67-66) with only 3.5 seconds left. Fortunately, Maryland fouled Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman as he drove to the basket with 1.2 seconds left, and he hit both free throws to win the game. It was very exciting, but it shouldn’t have been. Michigan should have won this game easily, not by one point in the last second.

The Nebraska game was horrible, just horrible. Michigan made way too many mistakes, and handed the game to Nebraska. With 13:51 to go in the 1^st half, UM hit a 3-pointer to get their last lead, 12-10. They missed a shot, committed 2 turnovers, and made another basket. At that point (11:10 left in the 1^st half), they were only down 4 points (16-12). They then proceeded to miss 8 shots in a row, and commit 3 more turnovers. The next time they scored was a pair of free throws with 5:05 left, to pull within 8 points (24-16). They finally made a basket with 3:43 to go, which got them within 9 points (28-19), and they limped into halftime down 11 points (32-21). The big turning point in the game came early in the 2^nd half. Michigan hit a basket to pull within 8 points (35-27) with 17:43 to go. Nebraska shot and missed, and Charles Matthews got the rebound cleanly. He stood there for a couple seconds, deciding who to pass it to, then he threw it right to a Nebraska player. The Nebraska player didn’t do anything sneaky to steal the ball, Matthews threw it right to him. To make things even worse, he just stood there and watched as the Nebraska player ran past him for an uncontested layup. He just froze. That was the game right there. Michigan never got any closer than 12 points, and Nebraska kept the lead in the 16-18 point range for most of the rest of the game. It was the worst game Michigan has played in a while.

At least the Rutgers game was a solid win. It wasn’t pretty, and it wasn’t as easy as the final score would suggest, but it was a solid win. In the early going, both teams had trouble scoring, with Rutgers leading 8-2 with 14:02 left in the 1^st half. Yes, Michigan had scored 2 points in the first 6 minutes of the game. They made their first shot, then missed 9 shots in a row. They missed layups, short jumpers, and open 3-pointers. They got the shots they wanted, they just couldn’t get them to fall. Michigan finally got the lead back (13-10) with 10:35 to go, and they never trailed again. They led by 6 at halftime (27-21), and finally got a double-digit lead (37-27) at the 15:34 mark. They never let the lead get below 7 points, and kept it in the 12-14 point range for most of the rest of the game.

Stats

The stats for the Maryland game are not very impressive. Michigan shot pretty poorly overall (25-for-61 = 41.0%), they shot 3-pointers pretty well (11-for-26 = 42.3%), and they shot free throws pretty poorly (7-for-12 = 58.3%). They lost the rebounding battle (36-30), but they won the turnover battle (6-12). The 3-point shooting is what won the game for Michigan.

The stats for the Nebraska game are embarrassing. Michigan shot terribly overall (21-for-56 = 37.5%), they shot even more terribly from 3-point range (4-for-18 = 22.2%), and they shot free throws pretty poorly (6-for-10 = 60.0%). They won the rebounding battle (32-29), but they lost the turnover battle (12-9). Poor shooting and turnovers – not a good combination.

The stats for the Rutgers game are mediocre. Michigan shot poorly overall (23-for-54 = 42.6%), they shot 3-pointers poorly (8-for-25 = 32.0%), and they shot free throws pretty well (8-for-11 = 72.7%). They tied in the rebounding battle (33-33), and they won the turnover battle (9-13). Michigan won this game with defense, not offense. They held Rutgers to even worse shooting (17-for-51 = 33.3% overall, 2-for-9 = 22.2% from 3-point range).

Who Looked Good

The starters this week were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Isaiah Livers, Charles Matthews, Zavier Simpson, and Moritz Wagner.

No one had a great week this week. A few players had 2 good games, but no one had 3 good games. Wagner had 18 points (and 11 rebounds, for another double-double) vs. Maryland, and 16 points vs. Rutgers, but he only had 2 points (on 1-for-5 shooting) vs. Nebraska.

Similarly, Matthews had 15 points vs. Nebraska (the only Michigan player in double figures), and 10 points vs. Rutgers, but only 7 points vs. Maryland.

The only other players with double figures this week were Simpson (5, 3, and 10), Jordan Poole (11, 5, and 4), and Duncan Robinson (6, 0, and 12).

MAAR got close to double figures (7, 9, and 6), and he did hit the 2 clutch free throws to win the Maryland game.

Livers also got close to double figures in 2 games (7 and 8 points), then laid an egg (0 points) vs. Rutgers. Once again, he played good, solid defense.

As usual, Jon Teske didn’t score much (5, 2, and 2), but he did play good defense, and he grabbed some important rebounds. He also gave Wagner a rest every now and then.

Jaaron Simmons is now the backup point guard, and he did a decent job spelling Simpson with 2, 4, and 2 points.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Eli Brooks played in the Maryland and Nebraska games, and failed to score. He didn’t even get into the Rutgers game. He is now the 3^rd point guard, behind Simpson and Simmons.

Who Else Played

Ibi Watson didn’t play in the Maryland game, but he did get into the Nebraska and Rutgers games. He scored 4 points vs. Nebraska, and 0 vs. Rutgers.

Who Didn’t Play

Austin Davis and the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) all failed to get into any of the games this week.

The Big Picture

Michigan doesn’t know how to handle prosperity. They finally got ranked last week, and they came out and played 3 lousy games, even though they won 2 of them. In close games, they work hard to get a defensive stop at a key moment, then throw the ball away. They don’t seem to understand the importance of momentum, both in an individual game and in the season as a whole. I don’t think they’re intentionally throwing the ball away or trying to lose key games, but I don’t think they understand how a key play can change the entire complexion of a game, and how a key win can turn around a whole season. It’s very frustrating to watch them play hard, have things under control, then just throw it all away with a dumb turnover or a missed easy layup.

So, Michigan survived their “hell week” (4 games in 8 days) with a 3-1 record, including their signature win against MSU. They probably don’t stand a chance of catching Purdue or Ohio State, but they could still finish as high as 3^rd place in the Big Ten, if they can get back to the level of play they had vs. Purdue and MSU 2 weeks ago.

Predicted Win Total

I had the Nebraska game as a “Should Win” game, even though it was on the road. Michigan had never lost to Nebraska, and they crushed Nebraska 93-57 last year in Lincoln, so I figured they should win again this year. Wrong. I had the Rutgers game as a “Should Win”, and the Maryland game as a “Toss Up”. At the halfway point in the Big Ten season, here’s what’s left on Michigan’s schedule:

• Should Win (1) – Penn State.
  
• Should Lose (3) – Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland.
  
• Toss Up (5) – Iowa, Northwestern (both), Minnesota, Ohio State.
  

At 17-5 (6-3), if Michigan wins the game they should win, loses the games they seem destined to lose, and goes 3-2 in the “Toss Up” games, that would give them a record of 21-10 (10-8). I’m going to leave the Predicted Win Total right where it is.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 20

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

After playing three games last week, this week Michigan only plays one game. On Thursday (01/25/2018, 7:00 p.m., ESPN), Michigan plays at (#3) Purdue.

Michigan just played Purdue in Crisler Arena 2 weeks ago, and they lost by one point on a questionable out-of-bounds call in the final seconds. It’s going to be a lot harder to stay with Purdue in their house. They are currently 19-2 (8-0 in the Big Ten), and riding a 14-game win streak. On the one hand, if Michigan plays like they have since the MSU game, they’ll get blown off the court. On the other hand, if they play like they did at MSU, they can beat Purdue, even on the road.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Quick Look

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they lost one and won one. On Tuesday (01/09/2018), they lost to (#5) Purdue 70-69 in Crisler Arena, then on Saturday (01/13/2018), they won at (#4) Michigan State 82-72. The loss and the win leave Michigan with a record of 15-4 (4-2 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

This week was SO CLOSE to being a perfect week. The win over MSU was huge, and very unexpected, but the loss to Purdue was heartbreaking. After trailing for most of the game, UM fought back in the closing moments of the Purdue game, only to have it stolen away by some lousy officiating. If the last 6.2 seconds of the game had been called correctly, Michigan could have won that game, but the officials blew it.

Purdue is a very good team, and they played very well. They outplayed Michigan for much of the game, and had a couple 14-point leads, but they couldn’t stop the relentless UM comeback in the 2^nd half. The game was all tied up (69-69) with 28 seconds left, and Michigan had the ball with no shot clock. They ran the clock down to 6 seconds, and drove in for the go-ahead layup, or at least a foul. Instead, Purdue knocked the ball away, and the officials (correctly) signaled that it was UM’s ball. No problem, still plenty of time to take a go-ahead shot. Actually, they could have called a reach-in foul on the knock-away, but instead they viewed the replay for almost 5 minutes, then gave the ball to Purdue! Absolutely wrong! They compounded the error with 4 seconds left on the clock when they called a foul on Michigan on a clean take-away. The Purdue player hit one of the two free throws, and Michigan’s last second heave from near half-court rimmed out. The Purdue players danced like they had won the National Championship, the boos rained down, and the officials hustled off the court, the damage done. They were terrible, just terrible.

If you had told me that UM would go 1-1 last week, I would have been positive that it was a home win vs. Purdue and a road loss at MSU, not the other way around. UM rarely wins at MSU, and MSU has a loaded team this season. The game was close most of the way, with UM holding a small lead most of the game. MSU led by 3 at halftime (37-34), but the lead changed hands several times in the first 11+ minutes of the 2^nd half. The turning point came at the 8:10 mark, with MSU up by one point (55-54). UM hit a 3-pointer, and never trailed again. Once Michigan got the lead up to 7-9 points, they kept it there. It was a very impressive win.

Stats

The stats for the Purdue game are actually pretty solid. Michigan shot pretty well overall (26-for-58 = 44.8%), they shot 3-pointers very well (10-for-22 = 45.5%), and they shot free throws reasonably well (7-for-11 = 63.6%). They won the rebounding battle (36-29) which is stunning, considering Purdue’s height advantage (a 7’2″ guy with a 7’3″ backup), but they lost the turnover battle (9-8). The reason Purdue won the game was their 3-point shooting (12-for-21 = 57.1%), including 5-for-5 to start the game, and 7-for-10 in the 1^st half. It was like a videogame for much of the 1^st half.

The stats for the MSU game are not nearly as impressive. Michigan shot decently overall (24-for-57 = 42.1%), they shot 3-pointers OK (6-for-15 = 40.0%), and they shot free throws pretty well (28-for-35 = 80.0%). Michigan lost the rebounding battle (31-32), but won the turnover battle big time (7-18). The important stat here is free throws. That’s where Michigan won the game. Why did Michigan shoot 35 free throws (and why did MSU shoot 32 free throws)? Because “TV Teddy” Valentine and his motley crew called 51 fouls in 40 minutes (25 against UM, 26 against MSU).

Who Looked Good

The starters for the Purdue game were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Charles Matthews, Duncan Robinson, Zavier Simpson, and Moritz Wagner. Isaiah Livers has been playing better than Robinson lately, so he got the start in the MSU game.

The star this week was definitely Wagner, with 11 points vs. Purdue, and a career-high 27 points vs. MSU, on 8-for-13 overall shooting (3-for-4 from 3-point range), and 8-for-8 shooting from the free throw line. He did a decent job defending the 7’2″ and 7’3″ guys from Purdue, and a great job defending the MSU centers.

If Wagner was “#1” this week, Simpson was “#1A”. He scored 15 points vs. Purdue (Michigan’s high scorer) and a career-high 16 points vs. MSU, had 5 assists in each game, and grabbed 6 and 4 rebounds. His only weak spot was free throw shooting: 1-for-2 vs. Purdue, and 5-for-10 vs. MSU. Michigan only missed 7 free throws vs. MSU, and he missed 5 of them. Sigh.

Matthews had a good week, with double figures in both games (14 and 10 points). He wasn’t very efficient (5-for-14 vs. Purdue, 3-for-10 vs. MSU), but he was UM’s leading rebounder (7) vs. Purdue.

MAAR had a pretty good week, with 7 and 14 points. He was also inefficient (3-for-9 and 3-for-11), but he did a good job on defense.

Livers hit double figures (10 points) off the bench vs. Purdue, and 6 points as a starter vs. MSU. He played hard in both games, and is becoming a solid defender. I really liked his dunk with 11 seconds left in the MSU game.

Jon Teske played in both games, and scored 0 and 4 points. He wasn’t much of a factor on offense, but he did play good defense, and he grabbed some important rebounds. He also gave Wagner a rest every now and then.

Jordan Poole continued to provide quality minutes off the bench, scoring 8 and 2 points.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Robinson played in both games, and didn’t do much. He scored 4 and 3 points, but was overwhelmed on the defensive end.

Eli Brooks played a few minutes in each game as the 2^nd point guard. He failed to score. He plays good defense, and he runs the offense pretty well, but he isn’t much of a factor offensively.

Who Else Played

Austin Davis played for 2 minutes in the MSU game, and failed to score. He did commit 2 fouls.

Who Didn’t Play

Jaaron Simmons, Ibi Watson, and the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) all failed to get into either game.

The Big Picture

This was a big week for Michigan, and it could have been even bigger. At 4-2 in Big Ten play, Michigan is right in the thick of things, but Purdue and (what?) Ohio State are both undefeated in league play and tied for 1^st place. They played both Purdue and MSU tough, and if they continue to play that well, they’ll finish in the top half of the Big Ten standings.

Predicted Win Total

Michigan won a “Should Lose” game and lost a “Toss Up” game. They’re at 15 wins, with 12 games left. If they can split those, that would be 6 more wins, so I’m moving the Predicted Win Total up one game.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 20

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

This week Michigan plays three games, all in the Big Ten. On Monday (01/15/2018, 6:30 p.m., FS1), Michigan plays Maryland in Crisler Arena, on Thursday (01/18/2018, 9:00 p.m. EST, BTN), they play at Nebraska, then on Sunday (01/21/2018, 12:00 p.m., BTN), they play Rutgers in Crisler Arena. Combined with the MSU game on 01/13/2018, that’s 4 games in 8 days.

Maryland is currently 14-5 (3-3 in the Big Ten). They don’t have any impressive wins, and their only embarrassing loss was to St. Bonaventure. Michigan should win this game, but it could be tricky.

Nebraska is currently 12-7 (3-3 in the Big Ten). They’ve got a few impressive wins (Minnesota, Northwestern, and Wisconsin), and a few unimpressive losses (St. John’s, UCF, and Penn State). It’s always tough to win on the road in the Big Ten, and I expect this game to be a tough one.

Rutgers is currently 11-8 (1-5 in the Big Ten). They’ve got a couple impressive wins (#15 Seton Hall and Wisconsin), and a couple embarrassing losses (Stony Brook and Hartford). After a few years as the doormat of the Big Ten, Rutgers is moving up in the standings a little. They aren’t the automatic win they used to be. They took MSU to overtime in Breslin last week before losing. I expect Michigan to beat them, especially in Crisler, but it won’t be as easy as it used to be.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Quick Look

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they won both of them. On Tuesday (01/02/2018), they won at Iowa, 75-68, then on Saturday (01/06/2018), they beat Illinois 79-69, in Crisler Arena. The two wins raise Michigan’s record to 14-3 (3-1 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

After playing two Big Ten games early in December (12/02/2017 win at home vs. Indiana, and 12/04/2017 loss at Ohio State), Michigan resumed Big Ten play in the new year with two solid wins against middle-of-the-pack teams. The Iowa game was a “toss up” game, but the Illinois game was a “should win” game. Regardless, they were games that Michigan was favored to win, and they took care of business. The Iowa win was definitely more impressive, since it’s tough to win on the road anywhere in the Big Ten, and Michigan hadn’t won in Iowa since 2011.

The early stages of the Iowa game were sloppy, with Iowa leading 10-7 at the 14:07 mark. Michigan went on a nice 22-4 run to build up a comfortable 15-point lead (29-14) with 8:11 to go in the half. Iowa crept back within 8 points (35-27), and Michigan answered with a 9-0 run to push the lead up to 17 (44-27), at the 4:02 mark. Iowa closed the half with a 9-4 run of their own, to make it a 12-point game at halftime, 48-36.

Iowa continued their run at the start of the 2^nd half, and pulled to within 7 points (48-41) with 17:23 to go. But, that was as close as they got the rest of the game, while Michigan pushed the lead as high as 17 points (71-54) along the way. Every time Iowa got the lead down under 10 points, Michigan answered with a run of their own to push it back into double digits. It was a solid, encouraging performance.

The first 13:25 of the Illinois game were really ugly. Heck, the first 15 seconds were ugly. Michigan won the opening tip, and threw the ball away on their first pass, then fouled trying to get the ball back. Michigan had 7 turnovers, 7 fouls, and 14 missed shots in the first 13:25 of the half, and trailed by 8 points (21-13). They finally settled down, and went on a 12-2 run to take the lead (25-23) with 4:06 to go. They still led by 2 points (31-29) with 1:58 left in the half, then let Illinois finish the half on a 5-0 run to lead by 3 at halftime, 34-31.

Michigan came out of the locker room fired up, and played some crisp basketball to start the 2^nd half. They quickly erased the Illinois lead, and went up by 5 points (41-36) before the 1^st media timeout. They pushed the lead up to 9 points (51-42) with 12:52 to go, and kept the lead in the 9-11 point range the rest of the way, winning by 10 points.

It seems weird to complain about the officiating in a 10-point win, but the refs for the Illinois game (Bo Boroski, Chris Beaver, and Kelly Pfeifer) were as bad as they get, even for the Big Ten. They called way too many fouls (22 on Illinois, 17 on Michigan, 39 total), many of them “phantom fouls”, and they were obsessed with offensive fouls. I don’t think their terrible officiating changed the outcome of the game, but it made it unwatchable at times.

Stats

The stats for the Iowa game are pretty impressive. Michigan shot well overall (28-for-57 = 49.1%), they shot 3-pointers very well (11-for-25 = 44.0%), and they shot free throws very well (8-for-10 = 80.0%). They just barely lost the rebounding battle (31-30), and they won the turnover battle (10-13). As I’ve said many times, when the 3-pointers are falling, this team looks great.

The stats for the Illinois game are also impressive. Once again, Michigan shot well overall (26-for-51 = 51.0%), they shot 3-pointers well (8-for-20 = 40.0%), and they shot free throws well (19-for-24 = 79.2%). They lost the rebounding battle again (31-27), and they won the turnover battle again (15-17). 15 turnovers is a lot for this team, but they managed to do enough other things right to win the game.

Who Looked Good

The starters for the Iowa game were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Eli Brooks, Charles Matthews, Duncan Robinson, and Moritz Wagner. Zavier Simpson has been playing better than Brooks lately, so he got the start in the Illinois game.

MAAR had a big week, with double figures in both games (15 and 13), and lots of other nice stats: 11 rebounds (7 and 4), 10 assists (6 and 4), and 4 steals (2 and 2). That’s called “stuffing the stat sheet”.

Matthews was the only other starter to hit double figures in the both games (14 and 10), but he just barely made it in the Illinois game. He’s the player who got the 1^st foul, 15 seconds into the game, so he sat for a while. He came back in 6 minutes later, and picked up his 2^nd foul in less than a minute, so he sat for the rest of the half. He started the 2^nd half, and managed to play about 3 minutes before picking up his 3^rd foul on a VERY questionable offensive foul call. This was probably the worst call we’ve seen this season, and it really got the crowd riled up. When Matthews finally got back in at the 11:31 mark, he managed to avoid any more fouls, and he finally got to play and score.

The only other player to hit double figures in both games wasn’t a starter, it was Isaiah Livers. He looked great in both games, with 13 and 12 points. It wasn’t just the number of points he scored, it was how and when he scored them. In both games, he scored important baskets to either stop an opponent’s run, or to start an important Michigan run. All of his baskets were big, and he hit a nice combination of 3-pointers and emphatic dunks. To top it all off, he shot a very nice percentage in both games: 5-for-6 overall (3-for-3 from 3-point range) vs. Iowa, and 5-for-7 overall (2-for-3 from 3-point range) vs. Illinois.

Most of the other starters each had one good game and one so-so game. Robinson had 5 points vs. Iowa, but came back for 13 points vs. Illinois. Wagner had 4 points vs. Iowa, and looked rusty again, but scored 14 points vs. Illinois, and finally looked a little like his old self.

Simpson had 15 off the bench vs. Iowa, but only had 5 points as a starter vs. Illinois.

Jordan Poole came off the bench in both games, and had one so-so game (3 points vs. Iowa) and one good game (11 points vs. Illinois). He and Livers sparked a nice UM comeback late in the 1^st half of the Illinois game.

Jon Teske played in both games, and scored 6 and 0 points. He wasn’t much of a factor on offense, but he did play good defense, and he grabbed some important rebounds. He also gave Wagner a rest every now and then.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Brooks was the only starter (vs. Iowa) who didn’t have a very good week. He played 8 minutes vs. Iowa, and 4 minutes vs. Illinois, and failed to score. Simpson has definitely passed him, for now.

Jaaron Simmons played 4 minutes in the Illinois game, and scored 1 point. He didn’t play vs. Iowa. He continues to slide down the bench.

Who Else Played

Ibi Watson played in both games, and failed to score.

Who Didn’t Play

Austin Davis and the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) all failed to get into either game.

The Big Picture

These were two important wins for Michigan. UM has to win as many of the games against the unranked Big Ten teams as they can, because the games against the ranked teams are coming right up. Michigan State and Purdue look like the two teams to beat in the Big Ten this season, so Michigan is playing for 3^rd place.

Predicted Win Total

Michigan won a “Should Win” game and a “Toss Up” game, and they’ve won enough “Toss Up” games to move the Predicted Win Total up one game.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 19

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

This week Michigan plays two games, both in the Big Ten. On Tuesday (01/09/2018, 9:00 p.m., ESPN), Michigan plays (#13) Purdue in Crisler Arena, then on Saturday (01/13/2018, 12:00 p.m., FOX), they play at (#1) Michigan State.

Purdue is currently 15-2 (4-0 in the Big Ten), with a couple impressive wins (Arizona and Louisville) and a couple less-than-impressive losses (Tennessee and Western Kentucky, both on a neutral floor). Their 4 Big Ten wins aren’t very exciting (at Maryland, Northwestern, Rutgers, and Nebraska), but they’ve won handily. They still have their incredibly tall center (Isaac Haas, 7’2″) and an even taller freshman with a similar name (Matt Haarms, 7’3″). Teske is going to be busy. Michigan can beat Purdue, but they’ll need to play their best game so far this season to do it.

Ah, our old friends, Michigan State. We only play them once this season, in East Lansing, and that’s probably a good thing. They are loaded this season, and could really stomp on UM if things get out of hand. They are currently 15-2 (3-1 in the Big Ten), with one understandable loss, to (#2) Duke on a neutral court, and one surprising loss, at unranked Ohio State. They’ve beaten a couple very good teams already this season (North Carolina and Notre Dame), and they’ve won their Big Ten games handily, other than OSU. Michigan stands very little chance in this game, and keeping it close late in the 2^nd half would be a moral victory.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Happy New Year. Let’s hope 2018 is a good year for Michigan athletics.

Quick Look

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played one game last week, and they won it. On Saturday (12/30/2017), they beat Jacksonville 76-51 in Crisler Arena. The win raises Michigan’s record to 12-3 (1-1 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

This was the last of the “guarantee” games for Michigan, and they played well enough to win, but not well enough to dominate. The game started out slow and sloppy, with more turnovers than made baskets. Michigan never trailed, but they only led by 4 points (11-7) with 10:52 left in the 1^st half. They finally pushed the lead into double digits (21-9) with 7:30 to go in the half, and never let it get below 10 points the rest of the game. The lead was 14 at halftime (32-18), and stayed in the 13-15 point range for the first 8:00 of the 2^nd half. At that point, UM started pulling away, and kept the lead up over 20 points for the last 8:00 of the game.

Stats

The stats for the game are reasonable, but certainly not dominating. Michigan shot pretty well overall (31-for-55 = 56.4%), they shot 3-pointers fairly well (8-for-23 = 34.8%), and they shot free throws OK (6-for-9 = 66.7%). They lost the turnover battle (14-9), which very rarely happens, but they really won the rebounding battle (41-23).

Who Looked Good

The starters were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Eli Brooks, Charles Matthews, Duncan Robinson, and Moritz Wagner. Jon Teske had been starting in place of Wagner, who missed 2 games with a foot injury he sustained in the Texas game.

MAAR was the high scorer for Michigan, with 20 points. He was perfect from the floor (7-for-7 overall, 2-for-2 from 3-point range), and he even had 3 rebounds and 2 assists.

Matthews also had a good game, with 18 points, including a couple thunderous dunks. He was Michigan’s leading rebounder, with 7.

The other starter in double figures was Robinson, with 12 points. He didn’t shoot particularly well (5-for-10 overall, 2-for-6 from 3-point range), but he had some timely baskets.

The only other Michigan player in double figures was Jordan Poole, with 10 points. Of course, 8 of those 10 points were scored in the last 4:00, during “garbage time”, but they all count.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Wagner looked rusty and hesitant out there. He played 20 minutes, and only scored 7 points, the only time he hasn’t hit double figures this season. He also had a season-high 4 turnovers.

Brooks had another 0 point game, his 5^th so far this season. In the last 4 games, he has scored 0, 4, 0, and 0 points.

The backup point guard, Zavier Simpson, didn’t do much better. He scored 2 points, but he did have 5 assists.

Teske had a quiet game, with 2 points and 6 rebounds.

Isaiah Livers didn’t do much with his 12 minutes off the bench: 2 points.

Jaaron Simmons played 3 minutes, and failed to score. He continues to slide down the bench.

Who Else Played

Austin Davis only played 3 minutes, and failed to score.

Ibi Watson played 4 minutes, and scored 3 points.

Who Didn’t Play

None of the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) played in this game.

The Big Picture

After 2 dominating wins over inferior opponents (Detroit and Alabama A&M), it was discouraging to see Michigan muddle through an uninspired win over another opponent they should have crushed. Chalk it up to rust (they had 9 days off between games) and a Christmas break “hangover”.

Predicted Win Total

Michigan won a “Should Win” game, so the Predicted Win Total doesn’t change.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 18

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

Mid-Term Grades

With 15 games down, and at least 16 more to go, it’s time for mid-term grades.

Freshman Eligibility

C.J. Baird (Inc.) – C.J. is a practice squad player. He’s played in 2 games, and has scored 2 points.

Eli Brooks (C+) – Eli has played in all 15 games this season, and started the last 11. He has scored 52 points (3.5 pts/game), and has 26 assists. He hasn’t been bad, but he hasn’t been that good either. He tends to disappear out there.

Austin Davis (C-) – Austin has played in 8 games, all off the bench, and has scored 15 points (1.9 pts/game). He still looks slightly dazed when he’s out there, like the game is still going too fast for him. He has plenty of potential, and good tools, he just needs to put it all together.

Isaiah Livers (C+) – Isaiah has played in all 15 games this season, all off the bench, and has scored 45 points (3.0 pts/game). He plays hard when he’s out there, and he shows flashes of why he was Mr. Basketball in Michigan last season, but he’s still learning the college game. He shoots too many 3-pointers for the percentage he makes (6-for-21 = 28.6%).

Naji Ozeir (Inc.) – Naji is a practice squad player. He’s played in 2 games, and has scored 2 points.

Rico Ozuna-Harrison (Inc.) – Rico is a practice squad player. He’s played in 1 game, and hasn’t scored yet.

Jordan Poole (B-) – Jordan has played in 13 of the 15 games so far this season, all off the bench. He has scored 82 points (6.3 pts/game), and is shooting a pretty good percentage from 3-point range (15-for-39 = 38.5%). He plays hard when he’s out there, but he still makes some dumb freshman mistakes. Once he cleans that up, he’ll be a very valuable player on this team.

Luke Wilson (Inc.) – Luke is a practice squad player. He’s played in 2 games, and hasn’t scored yet.

Sophomore Eligibility

Brent Hibbitts (Inc.) – Brent is a practice squad player. He’s played in 5 games, and has scored 9 points. Brent was redshirted his freshman season, and is a redshirt sophomore.

Charles Matthews (A) – Finally, an “A”! Charles has been very good this season, starting all 15 games, and leading the team in scoring (242 points, 16.1 pts/game). He is also the 2^nd leading rebounder (77), and 2^nd on the team in assists (48) and blocked shots (9). He is very athletic and acrobatic, with excellent body control. It’s fun to watch him play when he decides to take over a game. Charles was redshirted last season, due to transfer rules, and is a redshirt sophomore.

Zavier Simpson (B-) – Zavier was the starting point guard for the first 4 games, before Coach Beilein switched to Eli Brooks. He has played in all 15 games, and has scored 67 points (4.5 pts/game). He is shooting a nice percentage from 3-point range (9-for-21 = 42.9%), and is 3^rd on the team in assists (42). He is a better defender than Brooks, and I’m kind of surprised that he hasn’t won back the starting point guard position.

Jon Teske (B-) – Jon has played in all 15 games this season, and started 2 of them, when Wagner was injured. He has scored 67 points (4.5 pts/game), and leads the team in blocked shots (11). He has been fine in his role as the backup center, and he looks a little more confident out there compared to last season.

Ibi Watson (C-) – Ibi has played in 14 of the 15 games this season, all off the bench, and has scored 46 points (3.3 pts/game). When he’s in the game, his role is to shoot 3-pointers, and he’s done that pretty well (9-for-22 = 40.9%). He just can’t seem to get off the bench very often.

Junior Eligibility

Moritz Wagner (B) – This season has been a little disappointing for Moe, especially compared to last season. He’s played in 13 of the 15 games so far, all as a starter, but he missed 2 games with a foot injury. He’s 2^nd on the team in scoring (194 points, 14.9 pts/game), and he leads the team in rebounds (97). He has shown flashes of the brilliance he showed last season, especially in post-season play, but he has had long stretches of mediocre play. He has also been victimized on defense pretty often, and has given way to Teske for defensive reasons. If he can regain the magic he had at the end of last season, he can take Michigan far.

Senior Eligibility

Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (A-) – The only other “A” at this point. MAAR has started all 15 games, and is 3^rd on the team in scoring (159 points, 10.6 pts/game). He’s shooting a decent percentage from 3-point range (24-for-62 = 38.7%), and he’s tied for the lead in free-throw percentage (21-for-24 = 87.5%). He has been pretty steady out there, and has played some good defense, but he’s been a quiet leader on a team that might occasionally need some firing up.

Duncan Robinson (B) – Duncan has started all 15 games this season, and he’s the 4^th leading scorer (156 points, 10.4 pts/game). His role is clear: he’s the designated main 3-point gunner, and he’s been a little off this season. His 3-point shooting percentage is decent (34-for-91 = 37.4%), but we know that he’s capable of shooting 50-60%, not 37.4%. He had a terrible shooting slump for 3-4 games, but he appears to have broken out of it. If he can get his 3-point stroke back, he can take this team to the next level.

Jaaron Simmons (D) – Jaaron was supposed to be the starting point guard on this team. He has failed miserably. He has played in 13 games, all off the bench, and has scored 15 points (1.2 pts/game). At this point, it makes more sense to give most of the minutes to the two point guards of the future, Brooks and Simpson.

What’s Next

This week Michigan plays two games, both in the Big Ten. On Tuesday (01/02/2018, 7:00 p.m. EST, ESPN2), Michigan plays at Iowa, then on Saturday (01/06/2018, 12:00 p.m., BTN), they play Illinois in Crisler Arena.

Iowa is currently 9-6 (0-2 in the Big Ten), with no impressive wins, and a couple embarrassing losses (Louisiana and South Dakota State on a neutral court). It’s hard to win on the road in the Big Ten, so this will be a challenging game, but Michigan stands a good chance.

Illinois is currently 10-5 (0-2 in the Big Ten), with one decent win (Missouri), and one embarrassing loss (Eastern Illinois, in their exhibition game). They lost both of their early Big Ten games in overtime. This should be a close game, but Michigan should be favored at home.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Merry Christmas, if that’s what you’re into, otherwise, Happy Holidays.

Quick Look

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played one game last week, and they won it. On Thursday (12/21/2017), they beat Alabama A&M 97-47 in Crisler Arena. The win raises Michigan’s record to 11-3 (1-1 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

Make no mistake: Alabama A&M is one of the worst teams in Division I basketball. They are now 0-12 on the season, and they stood no chance against Michigan. They were scheduled as an easy “guarantee” game right before Christmas, and that’s how it played out. Michigan led the whole way, but AAMU kept it close for the first few minutes. Once UM got the lead up over 10 points, the rout was on. Everyone got to play, and it was an easy, low-stress game.

Stats

The stats for the game are about what you would expect, except for free throw shooting. Michigan shot very well overall (36-for-60 = 60.0%), they shot 3-pointers very well (15-for-32 = 46.9%), but they were terrible from the free throw line again (10-for-18 = 55.6%). They won the rebounding battle (31-28), and they really won the turnover battle (12-25). Those are the kind of stats you’d expect in a blowout.

Who Looked Good

The starters were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Eli Brooks, Charles Matthews, Duncan Robinson, and Jon Teske. Moritz Wagner was still out with a foot injury. He probably could have played, but he wasn’t needed, so he got more rest.

The undisputed star of the game was Matthews, with a career-high 31 points, on very efficient shooting: 12-for-15 overall, 2-for-5 shooting 3-pointers. He even shot free throws pretty well: 5-for-7.

Robinson has snapped out of his shooting slump, which is a big relief. He had 18 points, and also shot efficiently: 6-for-8 overall, 5-for-7 shooting 3-pointers.

The other starter in double figures was MAAR, with 14 points. He also shot very efficiently: 5-for-6 overall, 4-for-5 shooting 3-pointers.

Even though Teske only scored 7 points, he played well. He had 4 rebounds and 2 blocked shots, and he played solid defense. Michigan didn’t need him to score much in this one, which was fine.

Isaiah Livers had his best game so far. He almost hit double figures (9 points), and he was the leading rebounder (7). He hustled all over the floor, and he was very active on defense.

Austin Davis looked OK out there as the backup center. He still had too many fouls (3 fouls in 12 minutes), but at least he didn’t foul out of this game, after getting 5 fouls in 7 minutes in the UDM game last week. He scored 4 points, got 5 rebounds, and even had a blocked shot.

Jordan Poole did what he was supposed to do: he played hard and fast, and looked for his shot. Unfortunately, he didn’t hit many of his shots (1-for-3), and only scored 4 points.

Ibi Watson is another player who is supposed to generate “instant offense”. He scored 6 points on 2-for-5 shooting.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Brooks was the only starter who didn’t have a very good game. He had 0 points, but he did dish out 4 assists, with 0 turnovers.

After a few good games, Zavier Simpson had an off night. He also had 0 points, and a couple turnovers.

Jaaron Simmons played 8 minutes, and failed to score. He continues to slide down the bench.

Who Else Played

Other than Wagner, who was injured, everyone played.

C.J. Baird scored 2 points.

Brent Hibbitts didn’t score, but he had an assist.

Naji Ozeir scored 2 points.

Rico Ozuna-Harrison was just added to the team in the last week. He’s a 5’11”, 165 pound freshman guard, and he’ll be part of the scout team. He failed to score, but he did get a rebound.

Luke Wilson failed to score.

The Big Picture

We can’t learn much from a lopsided blowout of an inferior opponent, but at least Michigan took care of business, and didn’t “play down” to the competition.

Predicted Win Total

Michigan won a “Should Win” game, so the Predicted Win Total doesn’t change.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 18

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

This week Michigan only plays one game. On Saturday (12/30/2017, 6:00 p.m., BTN), Michigan plays Jacksonville in Crisler Arena.

Jacksonville is currently 4-10, and is a notch better than Alabama A&M, but still not a serious threat to Michigan. Their wins have all been against other weak teams, and they’ve lost a few to weak opponents.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!