As good as Michigan looked in the Pittsburgh game, they looked that bad in the ASU and Ohio games. Arizona State played a nearly flawless game, and could have beaten any team in the nation that night. Michigan played their worst game in several seasons vs. ASU, and could have lost to any team in the nation that night. That’s not a good combination. They followed it up with another lousy game vs. Ohio, but they managed to escape that one with a win.
It sure looks like it’s time to recalibrate my expectations for this team. A few of the “should win” games now look like “toss up” games, and a few of the “toss up” games look like “should lose” games. Here are my old and new lists of expectations:
Old Expectations
Should Win (15) – Purdue-Fort Wayne, Eastern Michigan, Ohio, Jackson State, Lipscomb, Central Michigan, Nebraska, Rutgers, Minnesota (twice), Maryland (home), Penn State (twice), Northwestern (twice).
Should Lose (6) – Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan State (away), Wisconsin (away), Illinois (away), Indiana (away).
If UM can win all 15 of the “Should Win” games, and half (5) of the 10 “Toss Up” games, that would give them a record of 20-11 (12-8 in the Big Ten). That should be good enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament with a decent seed. They’ll need to win more like 7 of the 10 “Toss Up” games and 2 of the “Should Lose” games to contend for the Big Ten title.
New Expectations
Should Win (13) – Purdue-Fort Wayne, Eastern Michigan, Ohio, Jackson State, Lipscomb, Central Michigan, Nebraska, Rutgers, Minnesota (home), Penn State (twice), Northwestern (twice).
Should Lose (10) – Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan State (both), Wisconsin (away), Illinois (away), Indiana (both), Maryland (away).
If UM can win all 13 of the “Should Win” games, and half (4) of the 8 “Toss Up” games, that would give them a record of 17-14 (10-10 in the Big Ten). That sounds like an NIT record.
Game Flow
The Pittsburgh game didn’t start out looking very promising. Pitt jumped out to an 8-2 lead in the first 2:28, and held the lead until the 11:17 mark, when UM went ahead 18-17. Pitt went back on top 19-18, then Michigan went ahead for good 20-19 with 10:33 to go in the half. They pushed the lead as high at 10 points (38-28) at the 3:19 mark, and led by 6 (38-32) at halftime. Michigan was hot in the second half, and they quickly pushed the lead up to 11 points (50-39) at the 17:20 mark. The lead just kept growing, through the 20s and into the 30s, topping out at 32 points. Coach Howard emptied the bench, and Michigan won by 31 points. It was a fun, exciting win against a solid ACC team.
The ASU game also started out looking not-very-promising, but unlike the Pitt game, Michigan never got going. ASU led by 10 (15-5) at the 15:04 mark, then 15 (25-10) at the 11:16 mark. When the lead got up to 23 points (44-21) with 1:22 to go in the half, the situation was pretty grim. ASU led by 18 points (46-28) at halftime, and UM managed to get within 15 points (52-37) at the 15:33 mark of the 2nd half, but that was as close as they got. ASU pushed their lead up into the 20s and 30s before they emptied their bench, coasting to a 25-point win. It was an ugly loss for Michigan.
The Ohio game was another slow start for Michigan. After leading 2-0 and 5-4, Michigan let Ohio go on a quick 9-1 run to lead 13-6 with 14:01 to go. In those first 6 minutes, UM missed four 3-pointers, missed two 2-point attempts, and turned the ball over twice. It was an ugly slow start. Ohio led for almost all of the rest of the 1st half, until Michigan tied it up 30-30 with 22 seconds to go, and went ahead 33-31 with a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Michigan held the lead for the first 7:12 of the 2nd half, leading by 6 points (43-37) at the 14:28 mark. Michigan let Ohio go on another run, this time 18-5, to go up by 7 points (55-48) at the 8:29 mark. Ohio led for most of the rest of the game, until Michigan tied it up 61-61 with 1:09 left. Michigan hit 2 free throws with 2.1 seconds left to go up 63-61, and should have won the game in regulation, but they let Ohio score at the buzzer to send the game to overtime, 63-63. Michigan finally looked like the better team in overtime, leading the whole way, winning by 4 (70-66). It was exciting, but Michigan shouldn’t be playing exciting games against MAC teams.
Stats
The game stats for the Pitt game were very nice. Michigan shot very well overall (35-for-60 = 58.3%), they shot 3-pointers well (9-for-20 = 45.0%), and they shot free throws well enough (12-for-18 = 66.7%). They won the rebounding battle (36-30) and the turnover battle (6-13). They won this game with good shooting and solid rebounding.
The game stats for the ASU game were miserable. Michigan shot very poorly overall (21-for-62 = 33.9%), they shot 3-pointers terribly (4-for-22 = 18.2%), and they shot free throws acceptably (16-for-24 = 66.7%). They lost the rebounding battle (35-31), but won the turnover battle (8-12). They lost this game with terrible shooting, combined with “lights out” shooting by ASU: 32-for-53 (60.4%) overall, 11-for-19 (57.9%) from deep.
The game stats for the Ohio game were dreary. Michigan shot poorly overall (24-for-63 = 38.1%), they shot 3-pointers decently (10-for-32 = 31.3%), and they shot free throws poorly (12-for-20 = 60.0%). They lost the rebounding battle (49-46) and the turnover battle (11-8). They (barely) won this game by playing well in overtime.
Dickinson hit double figures in all 3 games, with 11, 14, and 24 points. He also had 14 rebounds vs. Ohio, for a nice double-double. He carried the team in the Ohio game, and played the last 4:22 of regulation and all of the overtime period with 4 fouls. He also (finally) hit a 3-pointer (2 of them, actually) in the Ohio game after missing his first three 3-point attempts this season. Even better, one of those 3-pointers was the one that finally put UM ahead at the halftime buzzer.
Jett Howard also hit double figures in all 3 games, with 17, 12, and 13 points. His 3-point shooting is vital to this team, and he did pretty well this week, shooting 2-for-3, 2-for-7, and 3-for-7, for a total of 7-for-17.
Bufkin hit double figures in one game (14 vs. Pitt), and he came close in the Ohio game, with 9. He had a lousy game vs. ASU, with 5 points on 1-for-9 shooting.
Llewellyn also hit double figures in one game (10 vs. Ohio), came close in another (8 vs. Pitt), and had a lousy game vs. ASU (5 points on 2-for-6 shooting). He finally hit a 3-pointer (2 of them, actually) in the Ohio game after missing his first 11 3-point attempts of the season.
Williams had mediocre week, with 7, 4, and 9 points. He hit a couple timely 3-pointers in the Ohio game. He also had 8 rebounds in that game, including 3 offensive boards.
Joey Baker was the only other Michigan player to hit double figures in at least one game, with 14 points vs. Pitt, on 5-for-6 shooting (4-for-5 from deep). He was less successful in the other 2 games, with 2 and 0 points.
Dug McDaniel is getting better with each game. He didn’t hit double figures in any of the games, but he’s scoring more, getting more assists, and turning the ball over less. He had 8, 7, and 2 points, and he had 8 assists vs. Pitt.
Who Looked Not-So-Good?
No one looked not-so-good. Everyone had some bad moments, especially in the ASU game, but everyone had some good moments as well.
Gregg Glenn III played for 4 minutes in the ASU game, and scored 2 points.
Jace Howard scored 3 points (1-for-1 shooting 3-pointers) vs. Pitt, 1 point vs. ASU, and didn’t play in the Ohio game.
Youssef Khayat finally got to play this week, which means that he’s not being redshirted. He played in the Pitt game (0 points) and the ASU game (3 points, on 1-for-1 shooting from 3-point range). He didn’t play in the Ohio game.
Tarris Reed, Jr. scored 4, 5, and 0 points backing up Dickinson.
Will Tschetter scored 2, 2, and 3 points. He played for 8 minutes in the Ohio game when the game was in doubt (which was the whole game). He played ferocious defense.
Well, Michigan proved they aren’t unbeatable. They proved it in a big way. They also proved that they can steamroll a Power-5 opponent. Now they know what they need to work on (3-point shooting, free throws, turnovers, and perimeter defense). This one loss and one close game against an overmatched opponent don’t ruin the season, but they sure were disheartening. Michigan needs to put those games behind them and move on to better times. They have the talent to play much better, they just don’t have the chemistry yet.
What’s Next?
This week, Michigan only plays one game. On Wednesday (11/23/2022, 8:30 p.m., BTN) they play Jackson State in Crisler Arena.
Jackson State was 11-19 (9-9 in the SWAC) last season, and they’re 0-3 so far this season. Last season, they didn’t have any noteworthy wins or losses, and they lost in the 1st round of their conference tournament and didn’t play in a post-season tournament. They don’t have any noteworthy players, and they only have one tall guy, a 6’11” center. This is the kind of game that Michigan should win easily, and should use to get some things figured out.
Check back next week to find out what happened and why.
Michigan was supposed to win these two games, and they did. However, the way they won the EMU game shows that this team is still a work in progress. They certainly did not look like a Top-25 team for much of that game.
In the PFW game, Michigan had a slow start. PFW led 8-4 at the 15:17 mark, but Michigan finally went ahead for good, 9-8, with 14:36 to go in the 1st half. They pushed their lead as high as 16 points (24-8) with a 20-0 run that ended at the 10:45 mark. They traded baskets, and still led by 16 points (35-19) with 4:28 to go. PFW got a little closer, and trailed by 12 (40-28) at halftime. In the 2nd half, Michigan pushed their lead up to 24 points (59-35) with 12:50 to go, and kept the lead around 20 points for the rest of the game, although they did let PFW get within 12 points a couple times. It was a solid win against an overmatched opponent.
In the EMU game, Michigan trailed for the first 7:15. EMU never got more than 5 points ahead, but they dictated the pace, and outplayed Michigan. UM finally got the lead, 15-14, at the 12:45 mark, and they pushed the lead up to 6 points (20-14) with 11:20 to go in the half. That was the high point for UM for the half, as the lead seesawed back and forth, with EMU leading at halftime, 45-42.
The beginning of the 2nd half saw EMU start to pull away, up by 8 points (51-43) at the 17:40 mark. Michigan fought back, and finally took the lead, 56-55, with 13:37 to go. It didn’t last long, and other than a brief lead (61-60) with 11:44 left, EMU led most of the rest of the game. Once again, they didn’t lead by much, never more than 4 points, but they kept UM at bay. Michigan finally broke through at the 4:48 mark, when they went up 74-73, but the game was tied 77-77 at the 3:51 mark. That’s when UM finally woke up and started playing like they wanted to win. They got the lead with 2:49 to go, and never trailed again. They pushed their lead up to 7 points, and won by 5. It was a high-scoring, exciting game, with lots of runs and lead changes, but a Big Ten team isn’t supposed to get in a dogfight with a MAC team. Michigan obviously has some things to work on.
Remember Emoni Bates, who I mentioned in my preview of EMU last week? Well, he was as good as advertised, scoring 30 points on 12-for-19 shooting (3-for-6 from deep). He was a big reason that EMU gave Michigan such a scare. If he can keep that up, he’ll be one of the top players in the country this season.
Stats
The game stats for the PFW game were decent. Michigan shot pretty well overall (30-for-64 = 46.9%), they shot 3-pointers decently (9-for-29 = 31.0%), and they shot free throws fairly well (6-for-9 = 66.7%). They lost the rebounding battle (44-38), but they won the turnover battle (8-14). Michigan won this game with overall shooting and defense.
The game stats for the EMU game were mediocre. Michigan shot pretty well overall (29-for-60 = 48.3%), they shot 3-pointers poorly (5-for-21 = 23.8%), and they shot free throws like they were blindfolded (25-for-40 = 62.5%). They won the rebounding battle (41-36), and they tied in the turnover battle (11-11). They won this game with overall shooting and getting to the free throw line, even if they didn’t shoot free throws very well.
Dickinson was the star in both games, with 22 points vs. PFW and 31 points vs. EMU. He was the main reason Michigan won the EMU game. He also had 12 rebounds vs. PFW, for a nice double-double.
Jett Howard had a pretty good week, with 21 and 9 points. He looked good in the PFW game, but struggled a little in the EMU game. He shot 8-for-15 (5-for-10 from deep) vs. PFW, but only 2-for-8 (2-for-7 from 3-point range) vs. EMU.
Williams had an up-and-down week, with only 2 points vs. PFW, but 18 points vs. EMU. He also had 11 rebounds vs. EMU, for his first career double-double. He was the other reason Michigan won the EMU game.
Llewellyn was the only other Michigan player to hit double figures in at least one game this week, with 12 points vs. EMU. He only had 2 points vs. PFW, and he shot miserably in both games: 1-for-5 (0-for-3 from deep) vs. PFW, and 2-for-7 (0-for-3 from 3-point range) vs. EMU. He did shoot 8-for-12 from the free throw line vs. EMU, and he did run the offense pretty well.
Bufkin didn’t hit double figures in either game, but he came close, with 8 and 9 points. He certainly hasn’t found his 3-point shot yet: 0-for-4 vs. PFW and 0-for-2 vs. EMU. When those start dropping, he’ll be a much bigger contributor out there.
Joey Baker had a very nice game (9 points) vs. PFW, and a very forgettable game vs. EMU (1 point). He was 3-for-6 (all 3-pointers) vs. PFW.
Jace Howard chipped in 4 and 2 points off the bench, including a 3-pointer vs. PFW.
Dug McDaniel had the most exciting sequence of the PFW game, with a long rebound, a nice behind-the-back dribble to avoid a steal, finishing with a very nice Euro Step scoop basket. Unfortunately, those were his only 2 points of the week, even though he played 14 minutes in each game.
Who Else Played?
Isaiah Barnes played for 6 minutes in the EMU game, and scored 2 points.
Ian Burns played for 2 minutes in the PFW game, and failed to score.
Gregg Glenn III played for 1 minute in the PFW game, and scored 2 points.
Jackson Selvala played for 1 minute in the PFW game, and failed to score.
Cooper Smith played for 1 minute in the PFW game, and failed to score.
Will Tschetter played for 1 minute in the PFW game, and scored 2 points.
Who Didn’t Play?
Youssef Khayat was the only player who didn’t play in at least one game. I suspect he’s being redshirted.
What Does It Mean?
Michigan looked solid in the PFW game, but they looked a little dazed vs. EMU. They have much tougher opponents ahead, so they need to figure some things out, and quickly.
There are no “must win” games in November (or December), but there are certainly some “must not lose” games. So far, Michigan has won both of their “must not lose” games, but there are more to come.
What’s Next?
This week, Michigan plays three games. On Wednesday (11/16/2022, 6:00 p.m., ESPNU) they play Pittsburgh in the Legends Classic in Brooklyn, NY, on Thursday (11/17/2022, 7:00/9:00 p.m., ESPN2) they play the winner/loser of the Arizona State/Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) game in the Legends Classic in Brooklyn, then on Sunday (11/20/2022, 7:30 p.m., BTN) they play Ohio University in Crisler Arena.
Pittsburgh was 11-21 last season, 6-14 in the ACC. They had impressive wins over Louisville, Syracuse, Florida State, NC State, and North Carolina, but they also lost to The Citadel, UMBC, and Monmouth. They lost in the 1st round of the ACC Tournament, and didn’t play in a post-season tournament. This season, they beat Tennessee Martin, but got crushed by West Virginia (81-56). They don’t have any noteworthy players, but they do have quite a bit of height: a 7-footer and two 6’11” players, one with a great name – Federiko Federiko. Yes, that’s really his name. Anyway, this is a team that Michigan should beat, but they’ll need to play with some focus and discipline.
Arizona State was 14-17 last season, 10-10 in the Pac-12. They had impressive wins over Oregon (twice), Creighton, and (#3) UCLA, but they also lost to UC Riverside, Washington State (51-29, ouch), and San Francisco. They lost in the 1st round of the Pac-12 Tournament, and didn’t play in a post-season tournament. This season, they have already lost to Texas Southern. They do have a noteworthy player: Frankie Collins, who played at Michigan last season. So far, he’s doing well at ASU: 16.3 points/game, 5.0 assists/game, and 4.7 rebounds/game. They also have quite a bit of height: a 7-footer and three 6’10” players. This is a team that Michigan can beat, but it will be quite a challenge.
VCU was 22-10 last season, 14-4 in the Atlantic-10. They had impressive wins over Syracuse, Dayton, (#25) Davidson, Richmond (twice), UMass, and St. Bonaventure, but they also lost to Wagner, Chattanooga, and St. Louis. They lost in the 1st round of the A-10 Tournament, and lost in the 2nd round of the NIT. They also have some noteworthy players: Zeb Jackson and Brandon Johns, Jr., both of whom played at Michigan last season. Zeb has played in both VCU games this season, scoring 6 and 9 points. Brandon is starting for VCU, and has scored 13 and 15 points so far this season. They don’t have much height: one 6’10” freshman. This is another team that Michigan can beat, but they need to play a good solid game.
Ohio was 25-10 last season, 14-6 in the MAC. They didn’t have any impressive wins or losses. They lost in the 2nd round of the MAC Tournament, and lost in the 2nd round of the College Basketball Invitational (CBI). They don’t have any noteworthy players, and they only have one tall player: a 6’11” junior. This should be an easier game than either of the games in the Legends Classic, but Michigan can’t take it easy against them.
Check back next week to find out what happened and why.
The (#22) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played one (exhibition) game this past week, and they won it. On Friday (11/04/2022), they beat Ferris State 88-75 in Crisler Arena. Since it was only an exhibition, Michigan’s record is still 0-0.
What Happened?
The game itself was pretty much what you’d expect from a matchup between a Big Ten team and a Division II team. Michigan opened a quick 7-0 lead, then let FSU hang around for a while. UM only led by 4 points (20-16) with 10:19 to go in the 1st half when they went on a 12-3 run to open up a comfortable 13-point lead, 32-19. They continued to build on the lead, and were up by 19 (49-30) at halftime.
The 2nd half was more of the same. Michigan stretched the lead to 30 points (68-38) with 14:15 to go, then they coasted home. Coach Howard played everyone, and tried some unusual lineups. The 2nd and 3rd string players didn’t do quite as well, and FSU slowly chipped away at the lead, but Michigan still led by 18 points (87-69) with 2:07 to go. FSU finished the game with a 6-1 run to make it look closer than it was.
Stats
The game stats were predictably good. Michigan shot well overall (30-for-56 = 53.6%), they shot 3-pointers well (11-for-23 = 47.8%), and they shot free throws decently (17-for-28 = 60.7%). They lost the rebounding battle badly (47-36), but they won the turnover battle (10-12). They won this game with good shooting and fairly good defense.
Jett Howard was the star of the game, with 30 points and 4 rebounds. He was tremendous out there, shooting 10-for-12, including 6-for-8 from 3-point range. He only played 22 minutes, so he could have had many more points, but Coach Howard wanted to give everyone some playing time, and the game was won, so he sat most of the 2nd half.
Photo credit: Jacob Lifshay
Bufkin had the best game of his career, with 21 points on 6-for-8 shooting (3-for-5 from deep). Let’s hope that Kobe has made a “sophomore jump”, and that we can expect this kind of performance from him on a regular basis.
Photo credit: Jacob Lifshay
Dickinson almost hit double figures, with 9 points to go with 5 rebounds. He shot poorly (3-for-8), and only played 21 minutes. He looked bored or disinterested out there.
Llewellyn did a nice job running the offense (3 assists), and he led the team in rebounding (6 boards), but he didn’t do much on offense, going 1-for-3 for 2 points.
Photo credit: Jacob Lifshay
Dug McDaniel was the only other Michigan player to hit double figures, with 11 points. He shot decently (5-for-10), but he was 0-for-3 from 3-point range. He led the team with 6 assists. He is very fast, with some great moves and body control, and he played hard out there.
Isaiah Barnes showed a nice touch from 3-point range, going 2-for-2 from deep, for 6 points.
Who Looked Not-So-Good?
Williams played hard, but didn’t contribute much. He played for 15 minutes, took 1 shot and missed it, for 0 points, grabbed 4 rebounds, and committed 3 fouls. He’s one of the tri-captains, and he needs to contribute a lot more than that.
Jace Howard also played hard, but didn’t contribute much. He played for 14 minutes, shot 0-for-3 for 0 points, and grabbed 2 rebounds. He’s another of the tri-captains, and he needs to contribute more than that.
Tarris Reed, Jr. played 18 minutes backing up Dickinson. He wasn’t very effective, scoring 4 points on 2-for-5 shooting.
Joey Baker played for 15 minutes, and didn’t do much. He didn’t attempt a shot from the floor, just went 2-for-3 from the free throw line. He sure didn’t play like someone who played for 4 years at Duke.
Youssef Khayat played for 10 minutes, and was all over the place, but didn’t contribute much. He scored 2 points on 1-for-3 shooting. He also got a technical foul.
Who Else Played?
Will Tschetter played for 5 minutes, and failed to score. As a scholarship player, more is expected from him.
Gregg Glenn III played for 3 minutes, and failed to score. As a scholarship player, more is expected from him.
Ian Burns played for 1 minute, and failed to score. He’s on the practice team, so this isn’t unusual.
Cooper Smith played for 1 minute, and scored 1 point. He’s on the practice team, so this isn’t unusual.
Jackson Selvala played for 1 minute, and failed to score. He’s on the practice team, so this isn’t unusual.
Who Didn’t Play?
Everyone played at least one minute.
What Does It Mean?
What can we learn from an exhibition game against an overmatched opponent? Not much. It was nice to see the new players in an actual game, even if it was just an exhibition. Coach Howard got to try some lineup combinations, but it was too early to see if he has anything interesting in mind.
What’s Next?
This week, Michigan plays two games. On Monday (11/07/2022, 6:30 p.m., BTN) they play Purdue-Fort Wayne in Crisler Arena, then on Friday (11/11/2022, 9:00 p.m., ESPNU) they play Eastern Michigan in Little Caesars Arena in Detroit.
Purdue-Fort Wayne was 21-12 last season, 15-6 in the Horizon League. They didn’t have any impressive wins, and they lost in the 1st round of the College Basketball Invitational (CBI). They don’t have any superstar players on their roster, and they don’t have much height. This should be a decent test for Michigan, but one they can pass only if they stay focused.
As a side note, Michigan was scheduled to play Purdue-Fort Wayne on 12/21/2021 last season, but the game was canceled due to COVID-19 issues on the Purdue-Fort Wayne team. I asked for a refund for my season tickets for that game, and the Athletic Department said “no”. They said that it was the only game canceled, and that not enough other season ticket holders asked for a refund. I was not amused. If you were similarly ripped off, and feel that they owe you a refund, I encourage you to send an email to the Ticket Office and politely ask for a refund. Maybe if enough people continue to ask, they’ll change their answer.
Eastern Michigan was 10-21 last season, 5-15 in the MAC. They didn’t have any impressive wins, and they didn’t play in their conference tournament, so they didn’t go on to postseason play. They definitely have a superstar player on their roster: Emoni Bates, who was anointed as the next LeBron James and Michael Jordan by “Sports Illustrated” when he was still an underclassman in high school. He’s a very talented player, but SI might have overestimated him a little. He played at Memphis last season, and he did OK, but he was hampered by a lower back injury.
Besides Bates, EMU doesn’t have any other noteworthy players on their roster. They also don’t have much height: Bates and one other guy are 6’10”, and that’s about it. This is a game that Michigan should win, but with a player like Bates on the floor, it could be interesting.
Check back next week to find out what happened and why.
Yeah, it’s time for college basketball again. Sure, it’s another exciting season for the football team, but basketball games start this week. Let’s check out this season’s team.
Here’s my traditional standard description of this weekly column:
Yeah, it’s time for University of Michigan men’s basketball, and this is the place to read all about it: “Nothing But ‘Net” on UMGoBlue.com. Check back every Monday morning between now and the end of the season for a quick, concise wrap-up of the previous week, and a look ahead at the upcoming week, all in one easy-to-read article.
As always here at UMGoBlue.com, the perspective is “by fans, for fans”. I’m a fan (since 1974), and I go to all the home games, and watch/listen to all the away games. I don’t have any special access (other than being an usher in Sections 209-210), I don’t go to the press conferences, and I don’t interview high school recruits. I see the same things you do, and write about them as a fan.
Once again, it was a very busy off-season, with lots of surprises and changes. Let’s get to it.
Executive Summary
The big question: how good is Michigan going to be this season?
The big answer: pretty good, but it’s hard to be sure. There have been a lot of changes, and the era of the Transfer Portal and NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) money makes things really unpredictable. Michigan is ranked #22 in the AP Top-25 Preseason poll.
What’s New?
There are lots of changes to the roster from last season:
Players Leaving:
5 seniors graduated
3 players transferred
2 players left for the NBA Draft
Players Arriving:
5 incoming freshmen
3 incoming transfer players
1 new “practice squad” player
Graduating Seniors
Graduating seniors are a natural part of the college sports experience. In the current environment of players leaving early for the NBA, or transferring to other schools, it is getting to be a rare event when a player stays all 4 years at the same school and graduates. While it is sad to see players leave after having watched them for 4 years, it is really something to be celebrated and appreciated. Here are the 5 seniors who graduated:
Adrien Nuñez – Adrien was on the team for 4 years, but he never did play much, and when he did, he didn’t contribute much. He will not be missed, but we wish him well.
Brandon Wade – Brandon was always just a “practice squad” player. He will not be missed, but we wish him well.
DeVante’ Jones – DeVante’ transferred to Michigan from Coastal Carolina, and only played for 1 year. He did a fine job, and he will be missed.
Jaron Faulds – Jaron was mostly a “practice squad” player, but he did contribute more than a typical scrub. He will be missed, and we wish him well.
Eli Brooks – Eli played at Michigan for 5 seasons, thanks to the “COVID-19 year” rule. He was a key member of the team for several years, and he will be missed very much.
Players Who Transferred
Three players transferred to other schools after last season. They are:
Frankie Collins – Frankie had a very promising freshman season at Michigan, and he appeared to be in the mix for the starting job at point guard. Then he decided to transfer to Arizona State, apparently because Michigan took a grad transfer point guard. More on that below. He will be missed.
Zeb Jackson – Zeb played at Michigan for 2 years, but never very much. He had some exciting moments, but he also sat on the bench a lot. On social media, he appeared to be one of the most committed and enthusiastic players on the team, so his decision to transfer was quite a surprise. He decided to transfer to Virginia Commonwealth (VCU). He might be missed.
Two players left the team to enter the NBA Draft. They are:
Moussa Diabate – Moussa was a rare “one and done” for Michigan. He was erratic in his only season at UM, hot one game and non-existent the next. I didn’t think that he showed enough in his one season to get drafted, but the L.A. Clippers disagreed, and selected him in the 2nd round (43rd overall) of the draft.
Caleb Houstan – Caleb was another rare “one and done” for Michigan. He had a decent freshman season at UM, with a few impressive games and more than a few “empty” games. Once again, I didn’t think that he showed enough in his one season to get drafted, but the Orlando Magic took a chance on him, drafting him in the 2nd round (32nd overall) of the draft.
Incoming Freshmen
Last year, Michigan had the #2 recruiting class in the nation. This year, the recruiting class isn’t quite as highly ranked, but it’s still pretty good: #13. There are 5 incoming freshman players this season:
Gregg Glenn III #23 (6’7”, 230 pounds, F) – Gregg is a 4-star power forward, the #18 power forward in his class. He’s a decent shooter, but he can also take the ball to the rim. He should get a fair amount of minutes for a freshman.
Jett Howard #13 (6’8”, 215 pounds, G) – Jett is a 4-star shooting guard/small forward (“wing”). He’s the #40 recruit (#15 small forward) in his class. Yes, he’s the younger son of Michigan head coach Juwan Howard, and the younger brother of Jace Howard. He’s one of the better outside shooters on the team, and he’ll be an integral part of UM’s lineup.
Youssef Khayat #24 (6’9”, 195 pounds, F) – Youssef is not ranked, since he’s from Lebanon. I haven’t heard much about his basketball skills other than “good defender”. He may be redshirted this season.
Dug McDaniel #0 (5’11”, 160 pounds, G) – Dug is a 4-star point guard, the #12 point guard in his class. “Dug” is his nickname, his given name is Knasir. Scouting says that he’s a “pass first” point guard with a so-so outside shot, and a good defender. He should get a lot of playing time, since there’s only one other point guard on the team (see below).
Tarris Reed, Jr. #32 (6’10”, 260 pounds, F) – Tarris is a 4-star center/forward, the #7 center in his class, #35 overall. He’s the highest ranked recruit in this season’s freshman class. He’s a “banger” at center, with a decent shot and good rebounding and defensive instincts. He should play a lot, backing up Hunter Dickinson.
This is a solid recruiting class. We’ll see how they fit in with the rest of the team.
Incoming Transfer Players
Last season, Coach Howard went to the transfer portal and picked up a very talented player who played for one season at Michigan: DeVante’ Jones. This season, he picked up three transfer players, including another one-year player to be the main point guard:
Joey Baker #15 (6’7”, 205 pounds, G) – Joey transferred to Michigan from Duke, where he played for 4 seasons. He was lightly used (4.1 points/game), and decided to transfer to Michigan for his “COVID-19 year”. He’ll have one year of eligibility.
Jaelin Llewellyn #3 (6’2”, 190 pounds, G) – Jaelin transferred to Michigan from Princeton, where he was on the team for 4 seasons. Since the Ivy League cancelled the entire 2020-2021 season, he only played for 3 seasons at Princeton. In theory, he should have 2 years of eligibility left, but I only expect him to play 1 season at Michigan. He’s going to be the main point guard this season. Word is that he’s a good shooter and passer.
Cooper Smith #45 (6’1”, 175 pounds, G) – Cooper transferred to Michigan from Kalamazoo College. He’s a preferred walk on. Apparently, he missed his entire freshman season at Kalamazoo due to a back injury, so he should have 4 years of eligibility (maybe even 5, due to COVID-19), but he’s listed as having sophomore eligibility. His bio says that he’s still recuperating from back surgery, so I don’t know if he’ll practice/play this season at all. If he does practice/play, I expect him to be on the “practice squad”.
New Practice Squad Players
There’s only one new player on the practice squad:
Jackson Selvala #34 (6’7”, 215 pounds, F) – Jackson was a team manager who walked on as a player. He’s a senior in school, but he has 4 years of eligibility. Looking at his bio, he was quite the player in high school. He should be a valuable member of the practice squad, and he might even get to play a couple minutes in blowout games.
Who’s Coming Back?
Michigan is a very young team this season, with a lot of new faces. However, there is a solid core of returning players.
Let’s look at the returning players on the team:
Freshman Eligibility
Will Tschetter #42 (6’8”, 240 pounds, F) – Will was the #1 cheerleader on the bench last season, as he was voluntarily redshirted. It’s hard to predict how much playing time he’ll get this season.
Sophomore Eligibility
Isaiah Barnes #11 (6’7”, 200 pounds, G) – Isaiah actually played in 2 games last season, but he applied for a redshirt year. I don’t know if he was awarded it or not, but he’s listed as sophomore eligibility right now. Once again, since I haven’t seen him play, it’s hard to predict how much playing time he’ll get this season.
Kobe Bufkin #2 (6’4”, 195 pounds, G) – Kobe played in 28 games as a freshman, and scored 85 points. He looked good in a few games (Prairie View A&M, Southern Utah, Central Florida, and away Iowa) and like a freshman in the rest. He didn’t shoot very well from 3-point range (8-for-36 = 22.2%), and he had more turnovers (15) than assists (8).
Ian Burns #13 (6’6”, 205 pounds, G) – Ian was on the practice squad as a freshman, and he only played 2 minutes in 2 games. He missed his only shot attempt.
Junior Eligibility
Hunter Dickinson #1 (7’1”, 260 pounds, C) – Hunter is the undisputed heart and soul of this team. His stats were actually up from his freshman season to his sophomore season, but it didn’t feel like it. He started out slower last season, almost appearing disinterested during some of the non-conference losses, but he picked up steam as the season went along. One aspect of his game was definitely better last season: 3-point shooting. His freshman season, he was 0-for-4. His sophomore season, he was 21-for-64 (32.8%). He led the team in scoring (18.6 points/game), rebounding (8.6 rebounds/game), and blocks (49). Unfortunately, he also led the team in fouls and turnovers. He is one of the top centers in the Big Ten and the country.
Jace Howard #25 (6’7”, 225 pounds, G) – Jace played in 14 games and scored 16 points last season. He even hit a 3-pointer. He was often brought in for defensive purposes, and he contributed to a mean full-court press. I expect him to contribute even more this season.
Terrance Williams II #5 (6’7”, 225 pounds, F) – Terrance played in 31 games (started 1), and scored 146 points last season. He’s had a couple great games (Buffalo, at Nebraska, at Indiana, and at Ohio State) and a bunch of forgettable games. He was the 2nd best 3-point shooter on the team (20-for-52 = 38.5%). He’s a good defender, and a good rebounder for his size.
Senior Eligibility
There are no seniors at the team this season.
Starting Lineup/Depth Chart
This is really tricky this season, with all the new players. My guess:
Point guard: Llewellyn (backups: McDaniel and Bufkin)
Shooting guard: Bufkin (backups: Baker and Barnes)
Small forward: Jett Howard (backups: Williams, Barnes, Jace Howard, Tschetter, and Khayat)
Power forward: Williams (backups: Glenn, Tschetter, and Khayat)
Center: Dickinson (backups: Reed and Glenn)
Last Season
From last season’s Wrap-Up article:
Michigan ended the season with a record of 19-15 (11-9 in Big Ten). They came in tied for 8th place in the Big Ten regular season standings, lost their only game in the Big Ten Tournament, won their first two games in the NCAA Tournament, then lost in the Sweet Sixteen. On the one hand, this performance is well below pre-season expectations, but on the other hand, it exceeded most expectations from early February, when their record was 11-9 (5-5 in Big Ten). Most of the pre-season “experts” picked Michigan as a Top-10 team, and I bought into it. Things didn’t work out that way.
The season started out well enough, with solid wins in the (away) exhibition game (Wayne State) and the first 2 non-conference games (Buffalo at home and Prairie View A&M at a neutral site), then the first hints of trouble showed up: a 2-point home loss to Seton Hall. At the time, Seton Hall wasn’t ranked, and Michigan had climbed to #4 in the AP Poll, so this was a shocking result. By the end of the season, Seton Hall was a respectable 21-11, they were ranked for part of the season, and they were a #8 seed in the Big Dance, so this loss isn’t as bad as it looked at the time.
Michigan went out to Las Vegas for a pre-Thanksgiving tournament, the Roman Main Event. They beat a pretty good UNLV team in their home town, but they looked terrible in losing to Arizona 80-62 two days later. Once again, Arizona wasn’t ranked at the time, but they sure were by the end of the season. They ended the season 33-4, ranked #2 in the final AP Poll, and a #1 seed in the Big Dance. In hindsight, this was not a very bad loss at all, but it sure felt like it at the time.
Michigan returned home, beat a mediocre Tarleton State team by only 11 points, then they went back on the road, for an ACC/Big Ten Challenge game at North Carolina. UNC throttled them, 72-51. Do you see the pattern yet? At the time, UNC wasn’t ranked, but they sure were for much of the season. They are currently 29-9, they’re a #8 seed in the Big Dance, and they are playing in the National Championship game tonight. So, another loss that doesn’t look so bad in the rearview mirror.
Michigan returned home again, and beat a pretty good San Diego State team handily, 72-58. This was one of Michigan’s better wins. SDSU ended the season 23-9, and they were a #8 seed in the Big Dance. Michigan followed up this win with another solid win, 102-67 at Nebraska. Sure, Nebraska wasn’t predicted to be very good this season, but winning by 35 points on the road is pretty impressive. Just when it looked like Michigan had finally turned the corner, they played their worst game of the season, losing 75-65 to lowly Minnesota in Crisler Arena. This was one of the most embarrassing losses in the last 10 years. Minnesota was dreadful this season, finishing 13-17 (4-16 in Big Ten), tied for last place in the conference with Nebraska.
Michigan returned home yet again, and beat a decent Southern Utah team, 87-50. They were supposed to play Purdue-Fort Wayne in Crisler just before Christmas, but Fort Wayne had to cancel due to COVID-19 issues in their program. There was no wiggle room in the schedule to reschedule the game, so it was just canceled. Michigan’s final non-conference game was at Central Florida, and it was terrible. Michigan led by 12 points midway through the 2nd half, then they fell apart and lost 85-71. If the Minnesota loss a few weeks earlier was the worst loss of the season, this one was close behind.
On to the Big Ten! Michigan was a perfect 12-0 all-time against Rutgers, so they should be able to beat them, even on the road, right? Wrong. Another disheartening loss. However, as with several other opponents this season, Rutgers turned out to be a lot better than expected. They ended up 18-14 (12-8 in Big Ten), and were a #11 seed in the Big Dance.
As if the Rutgers loss wasn’t bad enough, Michigan had COVID-19 issues in their program, and they had to postpone their next two games, both at home, against two of the tougher teams in the conference: (#10) Michigan State and (#4) Purdue. At the time, it wasn’t clear when, or even if, the games would be rescheduled, but they were. Of course, that made for a couple really busy weeks late in the season, but we’ll get to that.
Michigan went on the road again, and lost big at (#25) Illinois. They beat Maryland in Ann Arbor, Indiana on the road, and Northwestern in Ann Arbor. Ladies and gentlemen, that was Michigan’s longest winning streak of the season: 3 games in a row.
Back on the road, another loss, this time at (#10) Michigan State. Back home, playing a team that they beat by 35 points on the road earlier in the season, Nebraska. No problem, right? Wrong! They struggled mightily, but managed to squeak out a win, 85-79. Back on the road, another Top-10 opponent, another loss: at (#4) Purdue. The next game was a rare road win, at Penn State. The season was hanging in the balance.
Look at the emerging pattern: besides the “awesome” 3-game winning streak, Michigan had almost always followed a win with a loss. The next game was at home, but it was against (#3) Purdue. This was one of the two rescheduled/make-up games from earlier in the season. On paper, it looked like Michigan stood no chance. On the court, it was Michigan’s best game of the season. They dominated Purdue, 82-58.
Unfortunately, this 2-game mini winning streak was the last time Michigan won two games in a row until the NCAA Tournament. The rest of the season looked like this:
L – Neutral court vs. Indiana (Big Ten Tournament)
W – Neutral court vs. (#24) Colorado State (NCAA Tournament)
W – Neutral court vs. (#5) Tennessee (NCAA Tournament)
L – Neutral court vs. (#6) Villanova (NCAA Tournament)
A few comments on this batch of games:
The win at Iowa was one of Michigan’s better road wins this season, second only to their win at Ohio State to close out the regular season.
The win over Rutgers was nice revenge for their early loss to them on the road. Ditto for the MSU game.
It makes no sense that Michigan could beat Iowa on the road, then lose to them at home. Same idea for the Indiana game – Michigan beat them on the road, then lost to them on a neutral court. It makes no sense.
One of the bigger stories this season came right after the loss at Wisconsin. Coach Howard was upset by the behavior of some of the Wisconsin coaches and players during the game, and he lost his temper and slapped one of the Wisconsin assistant coaches in the post-game handshake line. A small brawl broke out, and in the aftermath, Howard was suspended for the last five games of the regular season, two Michigan players (Moussa Diabate and Terrance Williams II) were suspended for one game, one Wisconsin player was suspended for one game, and the Wisconsin head coach (Greg Gard) was given a slap on the wrist. While Howard was suspended, associate head coach Phil Martelli coached the team, and did a fine job.
The loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament was right up there in the “sad” category. Once again, Michigan had a nice lead (17 points) midway through the 2nd half, when they just stopped playing. That game, along with the Minnesota and UCF games, were the only three really bad games Michigan played all season. The rest of their losses were all explainable and forgivable.
That brings us to the NCAA Tournament. As the #11 seed, Michigan was not expected to beat the #6 seed ([#24] Colorado State) in the first round, and they certainly were not expected to beat the #3 seed ([#5] Tennessee) in the second round. Losing to the #2 seed ([#6] Villanova) is nothing to be ashamed of. Villanova went on to play in the Final Four.
So, what happened? How did pre-season #6 Michigan end up unranked and a #11 seed in the Big Dance? I think all of the experts were way too optimistic about the new players, including incoming freshmen and a transfer player. They eventually all contributed, but not at the beginning of the season, and not consistently. The freshmen often played like freshmen. It took longer than expected to develop the right team chemistry. The schedule also turned out to be a lot more challenging than it looked before the season.
This Season
Let’s look at Michigan’s schedule for this season:
The 11/11/2022 game vs. Eastern Michigan is being played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, and will be closely watched because of Emoni Bates being on the EMU roster.
None of the other teams in the Legends Classic (Pittsburgh, Arizona State, and VCU) are ranked, so Michigan will be the favorite. A game vs. VCU could be interesting, since two former Michigan players (Zeb Jackson and Brandon Johns, Jr.) are on the team.
The ACC/Big Ten Challenge game vs. Virginia is going to be challenging. UVa is ranked #18 in the AP Top 25 Preseason poll. Fortunately, the game is in Ann Arbor.
The London Showcase game vs. Kentucky in London, England, is going to be very challenging. Kentucky is ranked #4 in the AP Top 25 Preseason poll.
The Jumpman Invitational game vs. North Carolina in Charlotte, NC, is going to be very challenging. UNC is ranked #1 in the AP Top 25 Preseason poll. Sure, the game is technically at a neutral site, but Charlotte is much closer to Chapel Hill than Ann Arbor.
The five “guarantee” non-conference games (Purdue – Fort Wayne, Ohio, Jackson State, Lipscomb, and Central Michigan) are all winnable, and will be good preparation for the Big Ten schedule.
The single December Big Ten game (at Minnesota) is winnable.
There is one particularly tough stretch in the schedule: six of the last seven Big Ten games (all except Rutgers) are against teams that are either picked to finish in the top tier of the Big Ten (Indiana [twice] and Illinois) or are big rivalry games with Michigan (Wisconsin [twice] and Michigan State).
Each Big Ten team plays 6 teams once (3 home/3 away) and 7 teams twice, for a total of 20 games. This season, Michigan plays:
Twice: Minnesota, Maryland, Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern, Indiana, Wisconsin.
Expectations
I like to divide the games up into 3 categories (“Should Win”, “Should Lose”, and “Toss Up”):
Should Win (15) – Purdue-Fort Wayne, Eastern Michigan, Ohio, Jackson State, Lipscomb, Central Michigan, Nebraska, Rutgers, Minnesota (twice), Maryland (home), Penn State (twice), Northwestern (twice).
Should Lose (6) – Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan State (away), Wisconsin (away), Illinois (away), Indiana (away).
If UM can win all 15 of the “Should Win” games, and half (5) of the 10 “Toss Up” games, that would give them a record of 20-11 (12-8 in the Big Ten). That should be good enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament with a decent seed. They’ll need to win more like 7 of the 10 “Toss Up” games and 2 of the “Should Lose” games to contend for the Big Ten title.
This Week
This week, Michigan only plays one game. On Friday (11/04/2022, 7:00 p.m., B1G+) they play Ferris State in Ann Arbor, in their only exhibition game.
Ferris State was 22-9 (16-4 in the GLIAC) last season. They are a Division II team, and they lost badly to the two Division I schools they played last season. They don’t have any noteworthy players, but they do have some height: a 6’10” guy and a 7-footer. This should be a relatively easy exhibition game.
Check back next week to find out what happened and why.
Yeah, it’s me, the “basketball guy”, back for more. It’s time for my annual attempt to predict how the University of Michigan’s football season is going to go.
Last Season (2021)
My Prediction: 7-5 (5-4 in Big Ten) Actual Results: 12-2 (8-1 in Big Ten)
Comments: For the 2019 season, I was perfect at predicting the results. Since then, I’ve been terrible at it. I was optimistic for 2020, which was a disaster, then I was pessimistic for last season (2021), which was one of Michigan’s best seasons in years.
This Season (2022)
My Prediction: 10-2 (7-2 in Big Ten) Comments: I can talk myself into predicting anywhere from 12-0 to 8-4, so I split the difference and went with 10-2 (7-2 in Big Ten). The 3 non-conference games all look pretty straightforward, and 5 of the Big Ten games look pretty winnable (Maryland, Indiana, Rutgers, Nebraska, and Illinois). The other 4 Big Ten games are much trickier, and I think we’ll have a tough time at Iowa and Ohio State. We should beat Penn State and Michigan State in Ann Arbor. If we don’t win another game, we absolutely have to beat Michigan State this year. Their rabid fans make life unbearable when they win.
