Author: Clint Derringer

@clint_derringer on Twitter U-M B.A. Sport Management & Communications ‘05 U-M M.S. Program & Project Management ‘18
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Michigan 27 Alabama 20 OT – Game 14 CFP SF Recap @ Rose Bowl

GAME 14 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 27-20 OT, Michigan by 7 over Alabama
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 8.4 (-1.4)
CD Projection: Michigan by 3 (+4)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 14 ROSE BOWL RECAP vs. Alabama

The Michigan offense was night and day different from first half to second half. The Wolverines held a 13-10 halftime lead after gifting the Tide an extra possession, but only ran nine plays in the third quarter. Of those nine Q3 plays, only one was successful, yielding an 11% success rate for the quarter. Just when negativity started to emerge throughout Wolverine nation, JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum rose to the occasion.

Down by seven with 4:41 to go, Michigan delivered a drive for the ages. The Wolverines marched eight plays, 75 yards, highlighted by a 4th & 2 pass from McCarthy to Corum to move into Alabama territory. McCarthy finished 17-27 for 221 yards and 3 TDs, while Corum scored twice. His rushing touchdown in overtime made him the program’s all-time rushing touchdown record holder, a well deserved honor for an iconic Michigan Man.

Defensively, coordinator Jesse Minter called a masterful game. The Wolverines piled up five sacks in the first half and finished with six total for the game. As the offense sputtered in the middle of the contest, the defense repeatedly had to come up with huge stops in high leverage moments. Linebacker Junior Colson battled through multiple injuries to lead the defense with ten tackles.

No play could be any bigger than the final stop of Jalen Milroe on 4th down in overtime. Defensive end Derrick Moore made a tremendous individual play to cross the face of the offensive tackle and make contact with Milroe behind the line of scrimmage. The rest of the Wolverines finished the tackle, and the celebration was allowed to commence around the country.

The special teams unit turned in their worst performance in memory, keeping the game closer than it should have been while Michigan dominated the other phases. Semaj Morgan muffed a punt in Q1 to set up Alabama’s first half touchdown. Two poor snaps led to a missed PAT, and a missed FG. And in the most heart-stopping moment of the day, the Tide’s final punt of regulation was muffed by Jake Thaw inside the 5-yard line. No doubt Jay Harbaugh will dedicate extra practice time to cleaning these issues up this week.

This game lived up to the heavyweight slugfest that it was hyped to be. While Michigan played sloppily, they also rose to the occasion in the largest moments. In that way, this Rose Bowl championship is a fitting microcosm for the whole 2023 season. But, the work’s not finished. Onward to Houston!

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By the Numbers: Game 14 CFP SF vs. Alabama @ Rose Bowl

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan shut out the Iowa Hawkeyes 26-0 in Indianapolis to secure their third straight B1G Ten Championship.  The offense didn’t put up flashy statistics, but the defense only allowed Iowa one scoring opportunity that ended with a fumble recovery for the Wolverines.

NEXT UP: vs. Alabama: SP+ 7th, 23.7

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 8.4, Michigan Win Probability 69%

Michigan maintained the #1 SP+ ranking, and added the top ranking in the CFP poll, AP poll, and Coaches’ poll.  According to SP+, the Wolverines would be favored over any of the other three playoff teams: Texas (6th, 24.6); Alabama (7th, 23.7); Washington (11th, 18.6)

Michigan Offense (10th) vs. Alabama Defense (9th) 

The Michigan offense and Crimson Tide defense square up pretty equally on paper.  However, the SP+ model cannot factor in the season ending injury to All-American guard Zak Zinter.  Since the injury in the second half of the Ohio State game, senior Karsen Barhart slid inside to guard to backfill Zinter, and Trente Jones entered at right tackle.  This configuration allowed four sacks to Iowa in the B1G Championship game, and only mustered 106 rushing yards.  The Wolverines need a huge bounce back performance from the offensive line group to keep Alabama edge rushers Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell off JJ McCarthy.

The strength of the Alabama defensive unit resides in the secondary.  Both corners Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold will play in the NFL soon.  In order to attack the Crimson Tide, Michigan will have to look for match up advantages in the middle of the field.  Center Drake Nugent and guard Trevor Keegan will need decisive wins on the interior to pave the way for Blake Corum between the tackles.  Then JJ McCarthy should be able to find Colston Loveland and Donovan Edwards covered by linebackers and safeties who first have to respect the interior run threat.  Running QB Alex Orji could also play a key role in creating a run game advantage by running option plays.

Michigan Defense (1st) vs. Alabama Offense (11th)

The Wolverines defense should have an advantage over the Alabama offense.  The strength of Michigan’s defensive line will create problems for Alabama’s blocking scheme.  I expect Bama to utilize double teams on the interior against DTs Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant.  The resulting single blocking on the edge must be exploited by Jaylen Harrell, Josiah Stewart, Derrick Moore, and Braden McGregor.  In my eyes, the edge rushers are the largest key for this game.  Alabama QB Jalen Milroe can make plays with his legs, and throws the deep ball very well.  However, he will also make a handful of big mistakes in each half, very similar to Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa.  The pass rush must be disciplined by staying in their rush lanes without providing an escape alley for Milroe.  The Wolverines can create big plays by making him read the downfield coverage from a collapsing pocket as often as possible.

The Crimson Tide are not as explosive in 2023 as they have been in years past.  After a string of Heisman winners on the offensive side of the ball, this year’s Alabama squad doesn’t have the same dominant superstar playmaker.  Wide receiver Jermaine Burton is the most dangerous threat in my opinion, averaging 22.2 yards per reception and pulling in 8 touchdowns on the season.  In the backfield, Bama had three players carry the ball over 100 times.  Running back Jase McClellan should be the secondary focus for stopping the running attack, after the QB Milroe.  We saw Alabama’s late-season opponents dedicate one, or sometimes two (!), players as spies to follow Milroe on the ground.  We can expect Jesse Minter to utilize a similar plan by keeping safeties over the top of Burton, and using linebackers Michael Barret and/or Junior Colson to chase the quarterback on scramble plays.

PREDICTION: These two blue-blood programs will meet in the Granddaddy of them All, the Rose Bowl, for the first time.  With the B1G Ten, SEC, and College Football Playoff all expanding in 2024, this may be one of the last hurrahs for nostalgia and tradition to bolster the high-stakes CFP atmosphere.  I expect this game to be dictated by both defensive units, and potentially a few special teams plays.  The scoreboard could stay tight for the entire duration, but in the 4th quarter I think the experience and poise of JJ McCarthy and the Wolverines will lead to a decisive play to clinch Michigan’s first CFP victory.
Michigan 27 Alabama 24

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 12/17/23, 13-0

  • SP+ Overall: 1st (same), 32.1
    • SP+ Offense: 10th (↓1), 37.6
    • SP+ Defense: 1st (↑1), 7.4
    • SP+ Special Teams: 4th (↑1), 2.0
  • AP Poll: 1st (↑1), 1539
  • Coaches’ Poll: 1st (↑1), 1535
  • CFP Rank: 1st (↑1)
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Michigan 26 Iowa 0 – Game 13 B1G Ten Championship Recap

GAME 13 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 26-0, Michigan by 26 over Iowa
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 22.7 (+3.3)
CD Projection: Michigan by 24 (+2)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 13 B1G TEN CHAMPIONSHIP RECAP vs. Iowa

Michigan needed just 213 total yards on offensive to put the Iowa Hawkeyes away in he B1G Ten Championship game. JJ McCarthy completed 22 of his 30 passes for 147 yards, but no touchdowns. Cornelius Johnson takes the crown as king of the passing attack. CJ hauled in a career high 9 receptions, showing tremendous athleticism and soft hands throughout the game. Blake Corum handled the scoring load, finding pay dirt twice. Corum’s two touchdowns tie him for the career rushing touchdown record (55) with legend Anthony Thomas.

The Michigan defense handled their business against an overwhelmed Iowa offense. Mike Sainristil received the championship game MVP after he forced two fumbles in key moments of the game. The linebacker room also showed out. Michigan’s three leading tacklers all come from the LB room. Ernest Hausmann and Junior Colson collected 8 stops each, and senior Michael Barrett added 7 more tackles.

Nine minutes into the game, James Turner sealed the final result by kicking the first Michigan field goal from 35 yards out. Turner would finish with 14 total points by going 4-for-4 on field goals, and 2-for-2 on PATs. Tommy Doman also managed to out-perform Iowa’s Tory Taylor with a net punting edge 39.8 to 35.1. The field position advantage set the Wolverines up with an estimated 1.42 point advantage each time the field flipped.

No doubt, the Wolverines have spoiled Michigan fans with three consecutive titles to go with a three game win streak over the Buckeyes. However, team 144 is a little different than the past two. They immediately shift focus to the next objective. Blake Corum likes to quote Kobe Bryant by saying, “…job’s not finished.” OK, Blake. Bet!

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Michigan 30 Ohio State 24 – Game 12 Recap

GAME 12 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 30-24, Michigan by 6 over Ohio State
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 6.1 (-0.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 6 (!)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 12 RECAP vs. Ohio State

Michigan’s offense vs. Ohio State’s defense shifted more than any other matchup when compared to the past two seasons. The Wolverines finished with a 46% success rate for the game, and averaged 5.8 yards/play. The Buckeyes succeeded in reducing their explosive play exposure. But, in the 2nd half when the game was decided, Michigan rushed for 122 yards and 5.8 yards per rush. The Wolverines posted a 64% success rate in the 3rd quarter, and 50% in the 4th. JJ McCarthy chipped in a 16-20 passing performance for another 148 yards and a touchdown to Roman Wilson.

Defensively, the Wolverines battled back-and-forth with a star-studded offense from Ohio State. All-world wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. caught five balls for 118 yards and a touchdown, while Emeka Egbuka also found the end zone. However, even though the Buckeyes established a much clearer commitment to rushing the football, they could not top Michigan. Tradition dictates the winner of the rushing battle wins The Game when Ohio State and Michigan clash. The Wolverines triumphed 156-107 on the ground.

The final slice of Michigan’s complementary football masterpiece came from the kicking game. Tommy Doman averaged 52.0 yards per punt, and James Turner looked rock solid on three field goals from 50, 38, and 37 yards. Jake Thaw also deserves a shout out for catching Ohio State’s punts in the air, often in heavy traffic. Michigan gained nearly a point of EPA per possession with their field position advantage.

Sherrone Moore continues his career ascension in Ann Arbor. He flourished as the offensive line coach and led his unit to back-to-back Joe Moore awards as the best in the nation. He added play calling duty in 2022 and improved the offensive output by 4.1 points per game. Now he lives forever as THE guardian of victory for stepping in during Jim Harbaugh’s November suspension. Enjoy the rivalry win boys, back to work on a B1G Championship tomorrow. Onward!

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By the Numbers: Game 12 vs. Ohio State

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan was able to survive and advance in the annual pre-OSU trap game.  The Wolverines held on to beat the Maryland Terrapins 31-24 after shifting into cruise control far too early.

NEXT UP: vs. Ohio State: SP+ 3rd, 27.8

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 6.1, Michigan Win Probability 64%

Michigan stayed firm atop the SP+ rankings where they’ve been going back to Week 5.  But, the Wolverines regressed back to the pack during the Jim Harbaugh suspension.  Ohio State remains 3rd overall as well.  Surprisingly, the 1st ranked defense leads the Buckeyes SP+ rating strength, not the 19th ranked offense.

Michigan Offense (6th) vs. Ohio State Defense (1st) 

This matchup embodies the strength-on-strength clash in this rivalry game.  Ohio State clamped down on big plays in 2023 after explosives proved to be the achilles heel for coordinator Jim Knowles in 2022.  I expect the Buckeyes to deploy a more structurally sound defensive approach in The Game this year.  Keeping the Michigan ground attack under wraps will still be top priority, but I don’t think Ohio State believes they need to commit 9 or 10 players to the line of scrimmage to accomplish that.  Michigan fans can expect a rushing attack that looks much more like 2021 (5-6 yards a pop) than the 2022 explosion.

In my eyes, Saturday’s two most critical performances take place up front where Ladarius Henderson expects to return at left tackle, and Karsen Barnhart looks to bounce back in pass protection at right tackle.  Henderson & Barnhart will be the point of attack blockers on Michigan runs.  Most importantly, they must keep JJ McCarthy clean against JT Tuimoloau and the Buckeyes’ pass rush.  Ideally, JJ’s health is no longer a concern and we’ll see him escape the pocket to create down field opportunities.  At the minimum, the Michigan running backs should serve as quick outlet valves if Ohio State is bringing pressure.  

Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Ohio State Offense (19th)

For the third consecutive year, the Wolverines’ defense will attempt to execute a game plan meant to minimize explosive pass plays.  In 2021 & 2022, impacting quarterback CJ Stroud posed the primary challenge.  Now the Buckeyes are led by Kyle McCord.  McCord is a good passer, but not on the same level as Stroud.  I expect Michigan to utilize extra safeties over the top of Heisman Trophy candidate Marvin Harrison Jr., while relying on the front four plus LB Mike Barrett to generate pressure.  If the Wolverines successfully contain Harrison with extra defenders, the wild card will be Mike Sainristil and Josh Wallace against #2 receiver Emeka Egbuka.

Verbally, this season represents a new commitment to running the ball for Ohio State.  TreVeyon Henderson and Chip Trayanum combine into a formidable challenge.  However, the Buckeyes’ offensive line still falters when trying to get to their second level blocks.  And, when Ohio State faces a high leverage situation, Ryan Day remains highly likely to turn away from his running backs and favor his wide receivers.  Jesse Minter will keep his coverage guys back, daring Ryan Day to run the ball consistently and repeatedly.  The most critical plays in the game will be 3rd down plays with 2-4 yards to go for Ohio State.  The Buckeye coaching staff will tell you that they want to run the ball in those spots, but Minter and the rest of the Wolverine faithful all know these are the times to tighten up outside in coverage.

PREDICTION: The SP+ model would favor Michigan over Ohio State by 3.6 points on a neutral field, and Bill Connely’s system adds 2.5 points for home field advantage, resulting in a 6.1 point tilt toward the Wolverines.  My preseason pick was Michigan by 6, and I am going to keep that same margin.  The teams will trade blows back-and-forth for the first 50-75% of the game.  Marvin Harrison Jr. and Blake Corum will each score early touchdowns.  But, this game boils down to which players step up in the fourth quarter once each team adjusts to the opponent’s game plan.  I think the Michigan defense will seal it late by pressuring McCord into a key mistake.
Michigan 34 Ohio State 28 (PRESEASON Michigan 39 Ohio State 33)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 11/21/23, 11-0

  • SP+ Overall: 1st (same), 31.4
    • SP+ Offense: 6th (↑1), 38.5
    • SP+ Defense: 2nd (↓1), 9.0
    • SP+ Special Teams: 7th (↓1), 1.9
  • AP Poll: 3rd (↓1), 1440
  • Coaches’ Poll: 3rd (↓1), 1458
  • CFP Rank: 3rd (same)