Drew Montag’s 2012 UM Football Predictions

2012 University of Michigan Football Season Predictions

Drew Montag

12 August 2012

Wow, football season is right around the corner; time for my annual UM predictions.  Sure, I’m the “basketball guy” at UMGoBlue.com, but I’m also a big football fan, and I’ve been going to UM games since 1974.

Once again, I did very well predicting the games last season.  I got 11 of the 12 right, all except the huge (and unexpected) trouncing of Nebraska.

So, how is Michigan going to do this season?  I’m thinking “pretty well”.  Continuity and consistency are important, and Michigan finally has some of that.  I’m expecting the offense to be a little bit better than last season, the defense to be a little worse, and the special teams to be about the same as last season.

Here are my predictions for the 2012 season:

 

Date Opponent W/L Record Comments
09/01 Alabama (in Arlington TX) Loss 0-1 What a tough way to start the season: on the road (at a neutral site) against the defending National Champions.  UM is good, but I’m afraid ‘Bama is better.
09/08 Air Force Win 1-1 I expect this to be pretty high scoring.  It’s tough to stop Air Force, but they won’t be able to stop UM either.
09/15 Massachusetts Win 2-1 This is the first season in FBS for UMass, and they’re joining the MAC.  UM beats MAC teams, except for that one game vs. Toledo…
09/22 at Notre Dame Win 3-1 The last 3 seasons, this game has come down to the last play, and UM has won all 3 of them.  It should be close and exciting again.
09/29 Bye The bye week comes very early this season.
10/06 at Purdue Win 4-1 (1-0) Purdue will be better than they were last season, but not good enough to beat Michigan in their B1G opener.
10/13 Illinois Win 5-1 (2-0) Let’s see: Illinois started last season 6-0, then lost 6 in a row, including a home game vs. UM.  They have a new coach.  This game is Homecoming for UM.  Looks like a UM win.
10/20 Michigan State Win 6-1 (3-0) Finally, after losing 4 in a row to the Farmers, UM stops the bleeding.  This will be a tough, emotional game.
10/27 at Nebraska Loss 6-2 (3-1) UM crushed Nebraska last season, and they’ll be looking for revenge.  UM’s first B1G trip to Lincoln will be a tough one.
11/03 at Minnesota Win 7-2 (4-1) Minnesota was pathetic last season, and they won’t be much better this season.  Sure, it’s tough to win on the road in the Big Ten, but not in Minneapolis.
11/10 Northwestern Win 8-2 (5-1) Playing Northwestern is always tricky, but UM is talented enough to hold them off.
11/17 Iowa Win 9-2 (6-1) UM owes Iowa big-time, and they’re finally going to beat them.
11/24 at Ohio State Win 10-2 (7-1) Yeah, OSU has a new coach (Urban Meyer), and they’ll want revenge for last season’s loss, but UM has more talent.  It’s always tough to win in Columbus, but UM will pull out a thriller.

 

That should be good enough for a tie for 1st place in the Legends division of the Big Ten, but not a place in the B1G Championship game.  It will be good enough for a good New Year’s Day bowl game, probably another BCS game.

It’s possible that UM might beat Nebraska, but I doubt it.

It’s also possible that UM could lose to Michigan State, but I think we’re due.  They could also lose the Notre Dame and Ohio State games, but that seems less likely.

Michigan has 7 games that they should win (Air Force, Massachusetts, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Iowa), and 5 that they could easily lose (Alabama, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Ohio State).  Of those 5 games, only the Alabama game looks hopeless, so UM could finish anywhere from 11-1 to 7-5.