Michigan Football Podcast — Season Preview – The Michigan Method 8-24-23

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Phil and Clint Derringer preview the upcoming Michigan Football season. Game-by-Game analysis with Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards and Jim Harbaugh.

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Phil Callihan 0:16
The season looms. Let’s start with the Football season preview. So how do you see the season looming for the Michigan Wolverines here? How do you see it shaping up?

Clint Derringer 0:33
Expectations couldn’t be any higher, right? They’ve won the big 10 championship for two years in a row. And returned some really key pieces, you know, players that we thought would have gone to the NFL Draft, like Blake Corum, Zack Zinter, Trevor Keegan, all through the entire, the entire lineup on both sides of the ball. They’re returning, you know, productive. So I expect, you know, I expect them to take the next step on top of, you know, beating Ohio State and winning a big 10 Championship, going to the Football playoff, which is what they’ve accomplished the last two years. And those were certainly progressive steps compared to recent history. I think it’s time to take another step forward, I think you have to not only get to the playoff win the game, you know, when the semifinal game get to the championship game. And obviously, the goal for the program is to win the national championship. So in terms of previewing and predicting what we think’s going to happen, those are the expectations. So it’s really hard. Usually, we have some time here to talk about, you know, setting the bar when you know, what, what do we expect. But, you know, the program over the last few years has really done that. For us. I don’t know how much conversation there is, other than you know, Michigan’s expectations or to compete for the national title. And then where do we see potential pitfalls? Or their greatest challenges? Along the way? Or where do we see anything that may be of interest, you know, when we start zooming in on the details, so I expect them to win every game and to have everything on the line when they get to the end of the season. And when the buckeyes come into an arbor, I think it very well could be 11 and Oh, and 11. And oh, again, with everything on the lot.

Phil Callihan 2:29
So what’s interesting for me is, so I’m doing all of my pre season prep, right. And one of the things we introduced last year is the visual depth chart. And you have the offense and you have the defense and we have pictures of players. And because last year was the first season that I really got into it, it required a lot of work, you know, preseason, because he had to lay everything out. This year, I loaded up offense and defense. And I knew practically every name. And it’s it’s hard to explain how loaded Michigan is right now. You know, there was an article of, you know, projecting possible, possibly 17 draft picks, you know, depending on who chooses to leave. And, again, just just when you talk about the depth of this roster, the expectations, the fall camp availability. Donovan mentioned, how surprised he was when Blake told him that he was coming back.

Donovan Edwards 3:42
Oh, hell yeah, it was a surprise my bad…Yeah, it was a surprise because, you know, he was coming off of a such a fantastic year. I’m very grateful. And I’m blessed that he’s coming back.

Phil Callihan 3:58
And then, you know, a week or so later, Blake talked about how he expected his last game to be last season,

Blake Corum 4:09
That was gonna be my last game. You know, I’d be lying if I said I didn’t. But being able be bet, you know, in front of the best fans. Playing with with my guys, majority of my guys came back, you know, playing in the big house, the best stadium, you know, it’s gonna be a lot, you know, and it’s gonna be a long season. And I’m just excited to be back out there. Matt is nothing like game day.

Phil Callihan 4:33
It’s interesting, because when you go, you know, let’s just look at like specifically the Running Back position. You have two great running backs. And you know what happened at the end of last year, Blake got hurt and Michigan didn’t lose a beat. Now you lose differences. But some of these positions, you’re looking at two and three deep. Coach Harbaugh talked about the Michigan match they’d

Jim Harbaugh 5:00
Yes, I read that another team was, was doing that for their quarterbacks. Michigan method. I liked it. I liked the way that sounded. So that’s some Michigan method. You know, who plays who plays? Who gets to start? The best players? How do you know the best player is probably the best. So if I had to define what the Michigan method is that that would that would that would define it. Well,

Phil Callihan 5:28
They have a one whole side of offensive lineman. And there’s another set of offensive linemen and they’re competing against each other kind of the way. You had the situation with, with JJ and Cade last year. So again, I agree with you expectations are sky high. You know, I look through the schedule. And you go, and you say, well, I expect both Michigan and Ohio State to be undefeated, heading into that game. The schedule lays out great for Michigan,

Clint Derringer 6:01
At least for me, in terms of trying to quantify matchups, or I really liked Bill Connelly’s SP Plus model for quantifying what we see on the field. It’s what you and I discussed the most frequently there are, you know, every year there are more models added right. I think Connelly’s still, he’s kind of like the godfather of this college Football analytics. But I like his system. And the main reason that I like what he does, is he breaks it down into what he calls the five factors that really help explain exactly what a team is, well, right, when compared to, you know, the team on the field that day, and then obviously, you know, over over time as you’re compiling the data, so the five factors are explosiveness, you know, how big are your big plays? There’s efficiency, which is, you know, how well are you staying on schedule and moving the chains that’s, you know, getting five yards or more on first down, it’s getting 67% of the yard, you need on second down, it’s converting on third down, it’s converting on fourth down. So moving the chains is the efficiency, metric, field position, which is always it actually seems a little bit old school, I remember listening to announcers talk about it a lot when I was growing up, you know, in the in the 80s, and 90s. And I don’t know that we talked about it as much on the TV broadcast, but I liked that Connolly’s model includes a section on field position, it lets us really quantify what we’re seeing with the punting and kicking game. So we track that talk about it. The big one is finishing drives, this one is one that gets a lot of attention and jumps out as a sore thumb when, you know, in games that we’ve lost, that maybe we thought Michigan should win. Finishing drives means when you get a fresh set of downs, inside the opponent’s 40 yard line. So anything from the 40 yard line in with a first and 10 that would be considered a scoring opportunity. And then he divides how many points you score per trick inside the the opponent’s 40 yard line. And then the last piece is kind of a catch all it’s turnovers and penalties, and kind of a section where all of the things that are more attributable to luck, or, you know, happenstance or or some coaching things, big mistakes, things that swing the pendulum widely, but you have to kind of track them, but they they get grouped together under this, you know, turnovers and penalties. And that’s the least, I mean, it’s very predictive of a game to game basis, but it’s the least consistent, you know, over the course of an entire season. He actually when he’s looking at the numbers, he always is talking about teams regressing to the mean and coming back closer to being with you, we’re very lucky season that he expects you to have a couple bad breaks this year. And if you are very unlucky in one season, you can probably expect to win another game or two, just because of regression to the mean. So anyways, those are the main pillars of what it is that goes into a lot of what we’re about to talk about in terms of quantifying. And, and to your point about, you know, starting out the season, especially against TCU. The model kind of predicts, you know, the gap in the two teams ratings is is an estimate of what the spread would be for the SP Plus model, right. So initially here against East Carolina. In the in the SP Plus system, Michigan is ranked third overall. And East Carolina is 87 out of something like 133 teams this year. So 87 thought 133 and the SP plus would say that this is going to be about a 37 point spread. So, obviously, you know, Intro aside here, what you’re talking about, you know, double digits two or three scores at halftime certainly could be the case. And we’ll see that pattern kind of stay the same throughout the whole non conference season, because there’s not a huge, a major non conference matchup here.

Phil Callihan 10:27
So one of the interesting things that we’re going to talk about more later is that we do have a little bit of extra drama with Michigan having a rotating guest head coach, or temporary head coach with Coach Harbaugh sitting out. So that’s going to add a little bit of drama, but I really don’t expect that to impact too much what we see in the season. You know, when I look at the schedule klant this year, I really look at it in thirds. Okay, so we have these first four games. And what I really like about him is, so you have a noon start against East Carolina, come back the next week, he got to 330 game versus UNLV. Next week, he got to 730 game versus Bowling Green, and then you come back to noon versus Rutgers. So you start with four home games, and you’re getting a different experience, right, you’re getting your noon starts where we’ve seen seasons where you had four straight noon starts. And as much as I believe that noon is when God intended big 10 Football to be played. It is nice to get kind of a variation and get the team different experiences and, and experiencing, you know, different game days of preparation. So, again, East Carolina and Michigan, as you said, big gap there. Come back the next week against UNLV. And, again, how does the SP plus predict that one and knowing that the model will will continue to evolve as as it begins to ingest more data, but how does it project out now?

Clint Derringer 12:07
So the this year the nonconference schedule, the teams actually go in order of strongest to weakest. So East Carolina right now in the preseason wood has the highest SP plus rating of 87 UNLV right now is 100 and 10th. Overall. And Bowling Green has 120/9. Very, very near the bottom. So at least in terms of, you know, on the way in before you have game data, where these will take some some big jumps early in the season. East Carolina in the preseason is the strongest. And then there’s a you know, a 30 spot drop almost a 23 spot drop to UNLV. They’re changing coaches, right, I think Bowling Green actually will be better than UNLV when it’s all said and done. But East Carolina really was was it. They were a pretty solid group of five program last year. But they really cut picked over in in the transfer portal. So they’re not quite the same team, but they do bring in an experienced Quarterback. So the gap in the UNLV gain in the second week is 43 points. Right. And that increases to 49 points in the third week against Bowling Green. So we’re talking, you know, 35 plus five touchdown plus spreads from three games. Really, the question is, you know, how do they handle this drama with Harbaugh’s, you know, absence on the sidelines for the games, the you know, the question marks around who’s doing what, and rotating those responsibilities through the first three weeks. That’s where most of the focus will be. Again, I hope that the players continue to be really good at compartmentalizing and focusing on the task at hand. Because if they play a clean, good Football games, then these these games are not going to be competitive as the third quarter goes into the fourth quarter and will be really just looking at statistics and narrative through those first three games.

Phil Callihan 14:13
Totally agree. So after those three, another home game, big 10 opener, Rutgers is at Michigan. What is sp plus project for that one?

Clint Derringer 14:25
So Rutgers is at 77th. Overall, that’s again, Cristiano took over there. With three or four seasons ago, I want to say three seasons ago. He took over and you know, they’ve steadily climbed nationally, so they’re almost to Midway, you know, for, for the entire nation in terms of being 77 Overall, they have the 65th ranked defense for SP plus and I think they’ll actually finish the end of the season even better than that. So she I know. They bring back some experience on the defensive side of the Ball. That’s a big plus Shannon’s a defensive minded coach. And they typically give Michigan trouble with their defensive scheme. So, SP plus these, this is a 34 point spread. I really, really think that this one is going to be closer than than that. I don’t expect Michigan to struggle the way that we’ve seen them struggle sometimes against truckers. But I do think that this defense from the Scarlet Knights will highlight some flaws, or maybe where there are some some chinks in the armor, so to speak, on the offense. And that’s a benefit of playing this game early in the season, I do think that there’s going to be some consternation and discussion about what’s going on, why isn’t this working? Why does this look so clunky? That we’ll get the you know, get the staff to go back and clean some things up. And maybe, you know, tighten up some execution things that we may be seeing at that point, because the the scheme that that the Scarlet Knights run up front typically gives our offensive problems now on when the Wolverines are on defense, I just I just don’t think that Rutgers yet is going to be able to put together a really solid offense, I don’t think that they can score enough to really make the game a problem unless Michigan is handing them points. So I think Michigan will win by, you know, two, or maybe three scores, maybe, you know, somewhere like 15 to 20 points. But I think that will be the spread, when when we get to week four, this game is going to be close enough that it makes some people uncomfortable.

Phil Callihan 16:40
Well, and I think that’s one of the things that you need to consider like, so last year, Michigan 52 to 17. Right. And looking back, you think, Wow, that was a buck ticket. And it was, except that Rutgers was ahead 17 to 14, heading into the half. Right. And I remember at the time thinking, ooh, that’s not good. Right. And of course, Michigan came out to dominate the second half. But I agree with you, there’s definitely you know, I think this is one of the times where the SP plus looks at the at the, the end of the game rather than the journey of the game. And I wouldn’t be surprised. You know, Greg Schiano, I think uses Michigan as a yardstick for his program. You know, definitely he’s taken an interesting path through the coaching profession. And, you know, and, Clint, I think one thing that we need to accept, and that Michigan fans might not like, right, is that we’re gonna get every team’s best shot. Okay. And there will be some struggles in this season. Because this is everybody’s national championship. And I like that. You know, I remember thinking back to, you know, the Bo Schembechler teams and even for the bulk of the Lloyd Carr era. You know, again, everybody hated Michigan, because Michigan was the best team. And after the last two years, I think that’s where we are, again, you definitely have Ohio State questioning themselves. And they’re a really good team, except when they play us. And I think that every other team is looking at Michigan right now to, you know, how do they measure up? They want to beat them. And, and again, it’s, it’s good to be there again. Because, you know, in the rich Rodriguez era and the brady hoke era, the concern you have is that, listen, it shouldn’t be a big deal when he beat Michigan. And unfortunately, Michigan losses were becoming a little too routine. You know, it’s good that everybody it’s back to that everybody wants to knock you off and, and his brigade, their best game.

Clint Derringer 19:14
And in terms of measurement also, we’ve heard a little bit in the spring and coming into fall camp and now coming out of fall camp going into game prep, that this team, you know, this 2023 version of Michigan may want to pass the ball a little bit more than we’ve seen in the last couple of years under Harbaugh with JJ being a second year starter and kind of trying to limit the the amount of carries you know, limit some of the mileage so to speak, you’re putting on your two running backs and the running game. So I think this Rutgers game and the unique scheme that they play on defense in the front will be an opportunity to see if that is the case because I think Rutgers is going to give the running game a little bit of trouble, they mess with your blocking schemes enough that I think they can keep it close, certainly through through the first half, like we said, so it’ll be interesting to see if Michigan does indeed find a way to be successful in passing downs, you know, like third and 10 second intent, those types of situations. But also, if they mix it up a little bit more on standard downs, like on your first intent, or second and five, or three situations, right, I would say, I would be interested to see in that game, specifically, the first big 10 game, if we get closer to a 5050, pass to run ratio. And that’s one thing that I would keep a specific eye on in terms of the numbers. It’s a clearer look at what their philosophy is going to be actually the season.

Phil Callihan 21:00
Completely agree. And so expect a tougher game than many may expect versus wreckers. And then we head into that second third of the season, which the key to that, to me is that three of those four games are on the road, right? You had in Nebraska, you had to Minnesota, come home to play Indiana, and then and then you you close out that third with Michigan State, which no matter how the team is talent wise, is always always a battle. So how does SP plus project that game versus Nebraska on the road, Michigan, and it’ll again, it’ll be Michigan’s first road game of the season.

Clint Derringer 21:48
Yeah, so first thing about the the traveling regardless of the four opponents, I think traveling three times in four weeks is a challenge in and of itself. I mean, that’s a, it’s a 13th opponent in this schedule, you know, there are some breaks that Michigan gets on this schedule, for sure. We’ll talk about that in a little bit. But this is really a meat grinder schedule, in terms of logistics, in terms of focus, and in terms of fatigue, on the on the players and coaches. You’ve got the craziness of the horrible suspension in the first three games than Rutgers, you know, we’re saying maybe kind of put challenges you more than you expect in that fourth game. And then you got to start prepping for, you know, three road trips and four in four weeks. So really, mentally and emotionally going to be a challenge. As the as the team moves in the third of the season now specific to Nebraska, right now, as B plus has done a 59th overall. So now we’ve climbed into the top half nationally 38th ranked defense again, which is you know, respectable, I would say 68th offense. And again, really big question marks here, as Matt rule takes over from Scott frost. So we don’t know a lot. And we certainly at this point in the season, we don’t know exactly how much is going to change what that’s gonna look like. They will be better than the team that showed up in Ann Arbor with an interim coach last year. And Michigan won that game 34 to three, and was kind of on cruise control, I would say. But I think this one on the road in Lincoln. We saw two years ago and 2021. You know, the Huskers had a fourth quarter come or fourth quarter lead. And Michigan had to come back and kick a field goal late to take the lead in that one right in one of those games where you know, hardball was talking about kind of taking their songs and making them yours, right kind of taking their energy out of these road. These road environments, and this one’s going to be a really, really cranked up crowd, right? This is going to be their first chance I think on the season to really plant their flag under a brand new coach. Right? They’re going to be looking to make a statement nationally against Michigan, an extension of what you said you’re gonna get everybody’s best shot but this is like a program best shot. Because, you know, this new regime is going to really be looking to make a name for themselves and they know even keeping it close and making it a very competitive game which is going to make people start flipping the channels to come watch because the challenge under if especially if they schedule it at night, I don’t think we have the starting time yet, but I get I get a feeling that that one might get slid into the primetime spot in Lincoln. So I think Michigan, again, more experience had As shown, you know that they are mentally and emotionally equipped to, to keep their heads on straight on the road. So these are challenges that I expect them to be able to handle. But SP plus says 25 points spread for Michigan. I think that’s, again, I think it’ll be a little bit closer than that right now. I would say I think something more like 34 to 30. You know, maybe even two scores, depending on on, you know, special teams and what other kinds of crazy stuff we see. But another one that that first row game first challenge. If Michigan plays well, then the no stretch it out into the 20 point lead. But there’s, there’s plenty that could could go wrong. And we’re going to need the leaders in the locker room to really be able to keep that team together on that first road trip. That’s a tough one.

Phil Callihan 25:54
Absolutely. So then returned from Nebraska, and then head out to play for the little brown jug versus Minnesota. And, again, another game that the time has not been announced. But again, you wouldn’t be surprised to see this shift a little bit. And again, you know, in past years, Michigan has struggled on the road that has improved somewhat. But again, it’s a whole different situation. You go from four straight home games to a road game, Nebraska and a road game to Minnesota. How does SP plus protect the Minnesota game Clint.

Clint Derringer 26:38
So in his middle third, SP plus has Minnesota ranked the highest they have Minnesota 27th Overall 57th on offense, which is pretty low, but ninth on defense, which is really, really higher, significantly higher than we’ve seen from PJ Fleck program recently. So 27th overall fringe top 25 program. I’m peeking right now, at what their schedule is coming in, I am interested to see who they played, Michigan comes into town. But this one if if Minnesota doesn’t have a loss on the record at this point, like you said, this could be a flex game, into the primetime spot, another road and hiking would be quite a challenge. Because this team, to me, talking about Minnesota, seems like it’s going to be defense led. That really is a bad matchup for them in terms of coming against Michigan, where the strength of Michigan team really is the offensive line. So I think Michigan’s offensive line is so strong and is so deep, they are going to chew up most of the defenses that they see these defenses. So to have a team that reads, defensively, I think Michigan will be able to grind this one out through the fourth quarter, the spread right now would be about two touchdowns looks like about 16 points, SP plus would expect this one to be. So again, I’ll go a little bit closer than that. And say that, maybe 31 to 20. Again, but really, it’s going to come down to the experience, fourth quarter and being able to really wear this team down into the fourth quarter and then probably be able to spring some of those larger big plays. Very similar to what we saw maybe in the Ohio State game. Where, yes, it’s very close statistically and on the scoreboard. But once once the dam breaks, then we may see, we may see it really, really break and we’ll learn more. I just got this scheduled to pop up. We’ll learn more about Minnesota looks like in week three, they they go on the road to Chapel Hill and play North Carolina on the road. So that’s a team right now. AP number 21. So we will have a much clearer idea of exactly what this Minnesota team is. Before we have to head to Minneapolis.

Phil Callihan 29:17
Absolutely. So Michigan return to Ann Arbor, hopefully with a little brown jug and toe to face, Indiana. And I’ll tell you my concern here is first. Indiana is one of those teams that always plays Michigan tough. You know, and we say that all the time, but they really do. Right, Indiana as a team that has no fear when they play Michigan. My big concern here is so you’re coming off two consecutive road games, right coming back to the friendly confines of the big house. But you got to know there that there will be a danger of looking ahead to the Michigan State game and And my concern there is that there are a lot of questions about Michigan State as a program right now with the questions. They have a Quarterback. You know, again, cliche you throw the records out. But I almost think it could be a bigger distraction if if Michigan State’s record is really bad. Right. So again, we’ll talk about that, you know, after Indiana, but again, so what is the SP plus project for Indiana, Michigan right now?

Clint Derringer 30:30
Yeah, interesting that even even when we’re talking about these games in order, it’s hard not to look past the Indiana game and start talking about the Michigan State game. That’s the following we, I mean, Indiana, because they’re in the East, in this last year, of big 10 divisions. They’ve always seemed to fall into a spot in Michigan schedule that had kind of a trap game feel to it. And Indiana, that occasion, very frequently, right. A lot of times they were slotted in, like week, 11, before Ohio State, and they problems. But those Indiana teams, first of all, had Kevin Wilson at the helm of the offense, you know, and they ran a version of the spread offense that that caused a lot of teams a lot of problems and created chaos. And that’s no longer the case. And also, when Tom Allen took over, he had, you know, really, really strong defenses that caused some problems in the recent history for Michigan in that trap game spot. This team is not that like they are at third overall. So again, now we’ve we’ve slipped back down very close to a similar ranking to what we would see with ECU right Indiana is closer to ECU than they are to Minnesota, in terms of SP plus rankings, and the defense ranking all the way down to 100th. So just given the narrative of the season, and kind of the the travel pattern, again, kind of seeing this as a safe haven a home game against an inferior opponent, as long as they avoid the trap of looking past them, which I think this team is really excels at staying focused at the task on the task at hand. As long as they are focused on playing against Indiana in this spot, I think this one stretches out. And it could be a blowout. So I’m expecting something like 40 to the 14th. And SP plus has it pretty similar about 35 points spread here, you know, five touchdowns. So.

Phil Callihan 32:45
So I definitely think that I just look back to last year. And again 1010 at halftime, you know, tie and then Miss heading into the fourth quarter or 1710.

Clint Derringer 32:59
And a couple I mean Michigan, when that happened, we’re winning that game happened in the season last year. I don’t think we knew then what we know now is that Michigan played a lot of close first half games, there was a lot of halftime scores. Looking back, it’s like man, I don’t remember it being like that. And it kind of fits eventually fit this narrative that we don’t that I was just talking about of wearing a team down and then when the dam breaks, the points really come in bunches in the second half. And Indiana I would say falls into that. But also that’s the game that my cart collapsed in the first half. If you remember you had the scare the medical emergency that totally disrupted everything in that game. So really tough to kind of project back on. You know what that was in Bloomington last year. That game being close at halftime? I don’t I don’t take the same message or the same signal from that particular result. As I did for example, like the Rutgers game on the road, being close, I think that is a style challenge for Michigan against Rutgers against Indiana. I think there was some some other off the field stuff that was that was clearly in their heads. And once they were able to take a deep breath and refocus and find out the coach heart was was doing okay. You know, they they jumped right back into it and got into a good rhythm.

Phil Callihan 34:30
Absolutely. And again, hopefully we will have no onfield drama such as that. So, all right, so the one we mentioned already. Then Michigan heads up to East Lansing, to the I will say it the worst road trip in the big 10 The place I hate to play above all others you know to face the Spartans and again Again, they’re cliches for a reason. Okay. Throw out all the records. Because whatever is happening, whatever drama is happening in East Lansing, okay? They will be ready for this game and it will be brutal and it will be tough. And when what does the SP plus project for us there?

Clint Derringer 35:25
Right now in this game, SP plus likes Michigan by about three touchdowns by 22 points. Michigan State is the 46th ranked overall 30 Athan defense and 62nd on offense Now I personally think they’re going to have more problems on offense, I think their ranking is going to slide down. I just I don’t understand how they would get better on offense without Peyton Thorne, you know, he leaves and is now the starter at Auburn. And I think the guys behind them even though they wanted to create a Quarterback competition, I don’t think that they’re quite the same level as what Peyton Thorne was. And he takes a not only, I think more talent, but also is starting experience. So I don’t believe that they will be the 62nd ranked offense at this point in the season. And I don’t think that they’ll keep that ranking all the way through the end of the season. I think they’ll slide lower than that. However, there are also rumors swirling that this may end up in a primetime spot. We know that it’s going to be a hostile environment. And like you said, we know that this is going to be everything in the kitchen sink coming from the Spartans, and the emotion and adrenaline that pumps in these rivalry games is certainly going to be spilling out. There’s the added narrative, again of the incident in the tunnel from last year, that’s all going to get brought back up and who knows how that gets rehashed and talked about who knows what, who knows what player says something from either side and creates bulletin board material, right. So a lot of wildcards potentially going into that game. When it all is boiled away, and you’re just talking about the Football game, Michigan is is better on both sides of the ball. I think, again, make sure that you’re eliminate the major mistakes, where you’re not giving them extra opportunities. Certainly turnovers or or special teams blunders to give that team extra opportunities would be a huge unforced error, right, make that offense score more than 20 points against you. And I don’t think that they’ll be able to. So if you’re not handing points out like candy against that team, then I think Michigan will be able to stay clean and, and take care of business. I do expect at least something crazy to happen. So I think it’ll be a little bit closer than what SP plus thinks. I think right now. It’s something like 31 to 20. But this one, I really think the first half becomes the key to take that crowd out of it. At this point in the season. I’m not sure again, I haven’t looked at Michigan State’s schedule, but they will be cranked up in game, no doubt. But if you can really take them out of it early, make a couple big plays, shut down that offense and maybe get out to 10 nothing or 14 nothing lead, I think it’ll get quiet real quick. And that would make things a lot easier. So not only avoid big mistakes, but try to get off to a fast start and take that crowd out of it because I think they will be ready to fold up shop. If you can put some doubt in their mind about whether there’s an upset bro.

Phil Callihan 38:55
Well, hopefully Michigan can put a get a beating going and maintain it in the first half so that the Spartan faithful can get out of the stadium and start couch burning early. So again I hate it, I have no problem saying it. So again, hopefully, SP plus will carry us through. And I think you’re right. I mean, I think that the key here is maintaining the onslaught and enduring the toughness that the Spartans will try to bring whereas I don’t think that they have the talent, but they will definitely bring their best effort and and it will be a it will be it will be a very tough game. And hopefully again, Michigan can get up and again, play Football. Right and I think that’s the key. This is a game you got to play Football, slept the extracurriculars you know What’s not happened? Right? Ignore that ignore any provocation, either from the fans or from Spartans. And in Clint, you know this better than most that Michigan State in that stadium, the fans are right on top of you. Right there is, it is one of the unique features of that stadium is that the sidelines are not are the fans are right on top of you in the sidelines. So it definitely can add a little, a little sauce to the match. And Michigan will have to stay focused and play Football, you know, play Football and get out with the victory and get back to Ann Arbor. So I think we both agree that while there will be some challenges during these first eight games, we’re anticipating Michigan being undefeated, heading into this last third. And I’ll tell you this last third is really interesting to me, when I look when I look at these games. So you have the first third where Michigan is at home for four games. The second third where Michigan has, you know, to potentially tough road games, tough environments, a home game, and then a really tough road game, tough environment. And then you had to this last third, where Michigan has two home games and two road games. And I think some interesting opponents. So how does the SP plus project the first of those games Purdue at Michigan?

Clint Derringer 41:37
Yeah. So the first game, as you said is home against Purdue first game of this final stretch. I think it’s also important that the bye week comes after the Michigan State game and before the Purdue game. So as you’ve kind of slice this season into thirds, and we get through the second phase, that’s when you really get the breather. And I think that it’s a little later it feels a little bit later this year than I think in years past, it’s been closer to after six games, I think, in the past few years, or even earlier before that. So to get an extra week of rest at this point, I think is really critical. In terms of health, right? Everybody’s dinged up, nobody’s playing 100%. And I think we’ve got quotes from Michigan Running Back who says, you know, after the first, you know, after the first couple carries of fall camp that the running backs, not never 100% again. So to get the bye week there is really a big deal. And then to return home and play Purdue and this is a rematch of the big 10 championship game from last year. But Purdue is not the same program. Jeff Brom left went to Louisville and the defensive coordinator from Illinois last year Ryan Walters takes over. So right now Purdue is slotted in the 58th spot overall in SP plus, again back up in the top half. Probably going to move a lot under this new program, currently showing 53rd on offense and 55th on defense so very steady across the board in terms of rankings for Purdue all in the mid 50s. I think Ryan Walters is going to put together a defense that is better than 55th. I really like what he does. I like him as a coach. I think what he accomplished with Illinois defense in the last couple seasons is is really pretty commendable. So I expect Purdue to be better on defense than this preseason ranking. And if they do keep the mid 50s offense, or if it slides a little bit, then that that’s probably what I would expect. For this. I did not I don’t see Michigan piling up a bunch of points against Purdue for a couple of reasons. Number one, as I said, I think Ryan Walters have put together a pretty good defense. But also number two, the we know that while the players are very good at avoiding looking ahead. It definitely has a feel like the coaching staff likes to keep certain strategic plans, packages, schemes, personnel groupings in their pocket before big games. So with this game coming before a road trip to Penn State, I think Michigan will try to get through this game against Purdue and show as little as possible. So they may be somewhat boring here on offense. I think Purdue is going to be tough enough on defense to keep us right around 30 points, but I’m not sure Purdue’s got the firepower to really score that enough to make it overly scary. So I’m looking at something like 30 to 17, perhaps. And most of that I think will be self inflicted where Michigan is keeping a lot of their best offensive stuff in their back pocket going into the next week.

Phil Callihan 45:20
So, again, I think that Michigan will dispatch Purdue, I see it like you do. I think it may be. They may be limiting the playbook, shall we say, right. And I think that, at this point in the season, we may be seeing some players getting reps that an opportunity to play, shall we say, right? And then you had on the road to Penn State. Now, I gotta say, as as challenging as this game looks, I’m really surprised that this is a noon game. And I’m glad it’s a new game, because the last thing you want to be doing is heading to happy valley for 330 game white out or or night game. So I definitely, definitely think that plays in in Michigan’s helps them, you know, plays into that, right? So how does the SP plus project this game versus the Nittany Lions.

Clint Derringer 46:23
So this game is by far the toughest game that Michigan has, to this point in the schedule defense stay right now, in the preseason is ranked sixth overall, fifth on defense and 22nd on offense. Again, this for context, the second best team, to this point would have been Minnesota at 27. So you know, we’re talking a significant jump in a level of competition. And that holds true, really season over season in the Big 10. East, we know that the jump when you go from the bottom half of the big 10 East up to the top three against Penn State. Ohio State. So I don’t think that that’s wrong. You know, I think Penn State will continue to be a top 10. Team throughout the the entire season. I do believe they get they get the buckeyes before this game. I want to look at that again and make sure I remember that correctly. And also with on the road, like you said, the main highlight for me is head, Fox slotted this into the noon time slot well before the season started. So knowing that it’s not going to be a night game on the road is certainly one of the scheduling breaks that I would say Michigan got that I kind of alluded to earlier. And yes, yes. So Ohio State plays Penn State in Columbus, in the third week of October, three games before Michigan has to go to happy valley. So we’ll see what else they do against the rest of their schedule. They’ve got a couple challenges, but they very well could be, you know, eight and one heading into this spot. And it could be a top 10 matchup. I think that Penn State would be a lot scarier if their offensive line were any, anywhere close to what Michigan’s offensive line is. Penn State is really, really great on defense. I think Manny Diaz has a really, really good scheme. It’s a good coach. They’ve got top talent at all of the key positions and they have top talent in their backfield on offense. I think the for starters returning on the offensive line, I think there’s a tackle that’s getting some first round NFL draft buzz on their offensive line. But I just I still haven’t seen them dominate a really solid defense the way that Michigan has been able to in the past, the way that Ohio State’s been able to in the past, where the Georgia has been able to in the past. So I think Penn State is a really, really, really great team, that their Achilles heel still to me is the offensive line. And I think that will be the difference. Again, I think eventually Michigan’s defensive line, we’ll be able to make some big plays and key spots against the Nittany Lions. And the other comparison here, I think is going to be JJ McCarthy and drew our five star quarterbacks both going to be in a big spot and in that tense in that case, I think, you know, I like having JJ on our side as opposed to drew our on their side. So All right now I’ve got it penciled in as Michigan winning by about 10 points, something like 27 to 17. Probably a similar feel to parts of the game that we saw two years ago and 2021, when when Eric all scored, you know, late in the fourth quarter to put Michigan ahead, right now as P pluses, 5.6 points spread for Michigan. And I think they’ll be able to stretch that maybe 10 points or two scores. But this is going to be a pretty Titanic matchup. But most of the advantages still lean in Michigan’s favor. And the greatest advantage that Penn State could have had that home field advantage at night has really already been taken away by by the Fox TV group. So

Phil Callihan 50:51
I cannot over emphasize the difference. And the term is night and day, right. Literally, the difference between Penn State at night and during the day is incredible. Okay, tons of respect for Penn State, tons of respect for their fan base. But, but they’re at night is an absolute Zoo. And again, as you pointed out, I mean, I when that game came out, and it’s interesting, because I know, you know, we both know, people who are, who are on the Penn State side, and I know some other people on the Penn State side. And literally, there was shocked, like, when the time was announced, the quote was, that can’t be right. And, and again, it’s it’s okay, TV. You know, it’s nice that for once, Michigan is getting the break there. So, so All right. So after that, Michigan goes on the road to Maryland. And I hate this game. Clint. I hate this game. Okay. When I look at the entire season, okay. I see. I hate the Michigan State game because I hate Michigan State. But again, I think the talent wise is definite in Michigan’s favor. Okay. Michigan and Maryland. Okay. That was a really tough game last year. Okay. 34 to 27. Now, again, Maryland made it tight, late in the fourth quarter to make it that close. But again, 34 to 27. Okay. And that was at home. And here you have Michigan going on the road. And again, anticipating being undefeated, we anticipate Ohio State being undefeated. So they go on the road to a non traditional rival, right. Maryland is, shall we say? Not tradition heavy, okay. Not tradition laden. And yet, they, there are teams that play with no fear. Okay. And that is probably the best compliment that I can give to any team. and Maryland last year played with no fear, okay, they were not intimidated. Michigan was a better team, Michigan one, but they did not back down. And we have some other things happening here. You know, we have an experienced quarter cup Quarterback coming back from Maryland. You know, who is a really exciting player. You know, and I’m gonna do my best with his name here to Leah Tang lobola Tang, Hola. Hola. Okay. I may not be able to say it, but he’s a great player. Right? And then you have Josh Gattis showing up in Maryland. Right? Josh has had a hard time since he’s left the Wolverines. But he’s very familiar with what Michigan is trying to do. There are still Michigan players who refer to what Michigan is doing on offense as speed and space, which is something that Josh tried to was right at the forefront of implementing here, right. So Josh Gattis, left at some trouble and other places, is trying to rebound has a really talented Quarterback is familiar with the scheme. And again, it’s going to be really hard for Michigan to not be looking toward that Ohio State game. And I don’t like this game at all. I don’t like this. I’ll just say it so so how does the SP plus see this one?

Clint Derringer 54:51
SP plus his Michigan for error by 19 points right now. Maryland is the 41st ranked overall team mean 47th on offense, which is lower, much lower than I would have expected and 27th on defense. Those unit rankings kind of surprised me and I would not be surprised to see those kind of flip. By the time we’re getting into the 11th game of the season. Couple couple points. The game against Maryland last year was a legitimate concern. Like you said that the terrapins came into the big house and made a huge mistake. almost right away. I think Michigan scored something like six seconds into that game after kicking off, because Maryland fumbled the the opening kickoff and Michigan recovered, scored a couple plays later. And then the final score, you know, is one score game. So that and Clint

Phil Callihan 55:51
To clarify Michigan scored in one play 10 yards at the eight second mark.

Clint Derringer 55:57
Yeah, yeah, exactly. So I mean, they had they literally handed Michigan the first seven points of the game, and then continued to play you know, tooth and nail throughout the the entire four quarters. So that’s that’s one thing. That’s not a that’s not a slow start. And then halftime, the dam breaks kind of game at all. You already mentioned Talia tagovailoa tagovailoa. He is a very experienced Quarterback. He is always a threat to make big plays, he really can kind of scramble around in the pocket outside the pocket, always has his eyes downfield and is looking to make the big play. So he he can strike from really anywhere on the field. And they have talent at the skill positions to do that. For sure. Their their main challenge is in the trenches on both sides of the ball offensively and defensively. And that’s where Michigan’s advantage will be the greatest. The other big difference between what we saw maybe two years ago 2021. And last year 2022. If you remember, two years ago, this game at Maryland was in the same slot. It was in the trap game slot before Ohio State, the 11th game. And that’s really the time maybe the only time that we saw Donovan Edwards deployed in the passing game. The way that we hope to see in this year he had 10 catches as a true freshman, I think it was something like 159 receiving yards. You know, we started calling that the Donovan Edwards game, because we hadn’t seen the 22 Ohio State game yet. That that game 11 against Maryland, I think is what we could expect more this season, rather than the 22 version. Because Maryland historically, is very, very strong in the first half of this. Very strong they start hot, almost every September, they’re almost always three and Oh, four No. through September into October. And and then as adversity starts to hit, you know, for one case, you know, for one reason or another, they they don’t necessarily bounce back as strong last year, I would say was one of their better seasons in terms of not just folding up shop and packing it in on the season, including a bowl game when as well, last year, so maybe they’ve turned a corner as a program in terms of some of those mental toughness things. I do. give this game a little bit of caution as well with Josh Gattis being involved and kind of understanding the ins and outs of Mike MacDonald’s defense from 21 and the similarities with with Minter. So I think that there are some some definitely challenges here. But I, I don’t think Michigan will struggle in this game with Maryland the way they did in 2022 with Maryland, so I’ve got them winning by 14 points, something like 35 between one right now, maybe a little bit less, but then SP plus expects, but this one very likely, there is a chance that Michigan kind of breaks this one open, because there’s so much better in the trenches here.

Phil Callihan 59:29
All right, I will take that. I would love to see that. So we’re anticipating Michigan holding up their end of the bargain, being undefeated, heading into the Wii game this season at the big house with our fabulous new scoreboards and we will anticipate that Ohio State will sort out their Quarterback issues and that they will be undefeated. So how does the SP plus project November 20 The fifth noon v game shaking out

Clint Derringer 1:00:06
Right now, Michigan and Ohio State are separated by point two. In SP Plus, they’re effectively a toss up. Which means when Connelly if Connolly were to put this as a home game for Michigan, I think there’s usually a three point swing for home field advantage. He would say that Michigan will be favored as the rating state right now, but just on a neutral field, which is kind of what I used for the preseason article here. OSU by 0.2 points, so effectively, a coin toss. Ohio State is second overall one spot in front of Michigan to get razor thin margin if the number one offense as expected. Again, they still have the same very talented backfield. Mine Williams and treyvion Henderson very good running. We know the wide receiver room is the best in history and it’s not it’s not close the gap between number one and number two in terms of receiver talent is is very wide so that breaking in a new Quarterback. I don’t remember the last time that Ohio State picked a Quarterback that was not that was not strong. I just I cannot continue to believe that they’re luck’s gonna run out on finding quarterbacks even when they’re evenly matched. I thought JT Barrett was going to struggle. I thought Dwayne Haskins was going to struggle. I thought he was going to struggle. None of that happened. They were all very good. And I think Ryan day has a knack for coaching quarterbacks and his system is, is obviously very, very Quarterback friendly. So wins the battle. They’re Kyle McCord or Devin Brown. They’re gonna be very good. Maybe not Heisman contender like CJ Stroud. But even that wouldn’t shock me. So the key again, with this game is going to be Michigan’s offense, being able to withstand the onslaught that Jim Knowles is going to bring the game last year. The reason that the buckeyes like to try to boil that game down to just five big plays is because they they went full down Brown, right? They went through everything in the kitchen sink at Michigan’s offense to try to stop the running game. Especially

Phil Callihan 1:02:42
Was last year the game they lost because of the snow. Or did we have really good weather last year, I lose track of their excuses < Eye Roll >

Clint Derringer 1:02:50
Last year is the game that they would have won except for the five big plays whichever five they pick.

Phil Callihan 1:02:56
That’s right in the post game where the Ohio State beat writer asked Donovan about one of his long run long touchdown run.

Question 1:03:04
When you came came through the line, There was nobody there…

Donovan Edwards 1:03:06
Which one?

Clint Derringer 1:03:12
Exactly right. So I think Knowles is is going to do the same thing. I think he’s going to throw the the entire kitchen sink at Michigan’s offense to try to stop the running game. We will have to withstand that without making any big mistakes. I think Michigan, managed to do that that first touchdown on the kind of the hitch route to Calvin, or excuse me, Cornelius Johnson. Last year, was really the first backbreaker for them, because they did have a lot of momentum. And that particular play for JJ to stay alive in the pocket by backpedaling and then throw off his back foot, get it to Cornelius Johnson, who breaks a tackle and goes the whole way. That was that was the dam breaking right there. And then as as the game continued, The onslaught started to open up and Donovan Edwards really finished them off with 275 and ATR runs, so they’re gonna do the same thing. But that’s a high variance, you know, strategy, right? It worked in Michigan’s favor last year. And Michigan has to make sure that it works in their favor again this year. You cannot make the big mistake. Make the big turnover. Right in the game. against Penn State. We saw JJ throw a pic six against TCU. Of course we saw him throw pick six. So we have to avoid making the big mistake there for sure against Jim Knowles and maintain and be able to lean on them and continue to press their advantage and hopefully, we will have both Blake Oh man, Donovan Edwards available for this game. Not having Blake Edwards last year, really was, was obviously it really changed the dynamic of how Ohio State was allowed to attack Michigan. And Donovan Edwards still made them pay. So I like their chances to be able to do that again. I like the strategy defensively that Michigan has been able to put together to kind of bend but don’t break. Keep Ohio State, you know, between 20 and 30 has been the goal and they’ve done it both years, and they’ve won both years. So I expect Michigan to win this game at home. Right now I’m looking at something like 3933. But a very similar feel to what we’ve seen both of the last couple seasons, Ohio State is going to make some big plays, there’s gonna be a lot of haymakers back and forth. But I think they will run out of gas when, when kept under the pressure from Michigan, and eventually, Michigan will be celebrating again at the big house.

Phil Callihan 1:06:07
Well, again, I’m just glad that we can look forward to this game being played in the big house. We know how teams from down south struggle when they need to come into our northern weather. So, you know, I’ll just keep my fingers crossed, that the weather will be on our side because, you know, but again, looking forward to another amazing season. And it is awesome, that Michigan is this, that Michigan is in this position of not just reloading but being completely loaded, heading into the season, expectations are high. And again, just rolling incredibly deep on the roster. And, you know, as we as we alluded to earlier, you know, we wouldn’t be an offseason without some drama. And the NCAA is the is the publisher or the originator of the drama with you know, first Michigan and Jim Harbaugh negotiating a four game suspension and then that getting shot down and now it’s a three game suspension. So, game one defensive coordinator Jesse Minar, will be handling the head coaching duties. Game Two, they’ll be splitting between my card and J. Harbaugh game three, Sharon Moore will be stepping in for Jim Harbaugh Sharon Moore is also taking a one game suspension for game one and Jim Harbaugh has announced his dad as assistant head coach to oversee things. And Ben Herbert, Director of Franklin conditioning being an associate head coach. So again, you gotta love Coach Harbaugh tweaking the NCAA a little bit. I’m disappointed that he didn’t take out my idea of having celebrity head coaches, I would have loved to have seen Tom Brady and Charles Woodson, come back. But, you know, coach knows best. So. So in all seriousness, Clint, how do you think how do you perceive the self suspension playing with the NCAA? And how do you think it’s going to impact as we as we really head into the postseason, right? Because the thing with the NCAA is, is looming? It’s just been punted down to the offseason. How do you think this will impact that?

Clint Derringer 1:08:45
So yeah, starting from the back end, first, the NCAA is looking to make a statement. So Michigan kind of cuts the, you know, undercuts them here kind of pulls the rug out from under them a little bit by self imposing. Basically the same package that they had tried to negotiate with the NCAA, that the committee on infractions, then rejected. So by self imposing, typically, the NCAA either, you know, closes that case after that, or there are some minor additions on top of that, but in these cases, especially cases that are three and into four years old, the self imposed sanctions, many times are, that’s the end of it. I don’t think the NCAA is going to accept that i This has become somewhat personal, certainly personal for Jim Harbaugh. He certainly feels as if he is defending his honor, in some way, his reputation in many ways. So he’s, he’s not going to let it go. Of course, he’s saying accepted this self imposed sanction from the athletic department. But when the NCAA looks to kind of increase to make their point, and kind of make an example out of Jim Harbaugh, I expect the flame war to start right back up full force. And I think that most of this, we’ve seen is going to get hashed out even in the media. It’s not going to be investigators, and executives and negotiations quietly anymore. I think this has turned into a lot of posturing on both sides. So it’s, it’s now it’s kind of a PR battle. And I don’t know, I don’t know what the final result will be. I would, I tend to believe that Michigan’s case Harbaugh’s case is stronger, somehow in the in the eyes of a court or an arbitrator. So that just because the NCAA always seems to lose in court, and it certainly feels like they have, they feel they have a stronger hand. So my sense is that there’s not going to be a lot of tangible impact, above and beyond these three, this three game suspension. But that won’t stop the NCAA from trying to make it feel like it’s a big deal coming down the pike. And again, I think a lot of this probably gets hashed out as publicly as possible, because that’s really the only card they have to play.

Phil Callihan 1:11:42
So what I think is interesting about this is there was a lot of concern among Michigan fans, that by putting off the punishment, it was going to incentivize Jim Harbaugh to leave for the NFL right. Now, of course, that possibility still exists. But by getting ahead of it, and I guess, offering to serve, offering up time served, right? What I like about it is Michigan gets ahead of it. They kind of turned it into a positive, getting these other coaches an opportunity to hold the reins. And even if the NCAA comes back, and says to make a point, well, we’re going to punish you six games. Well, you already have three in the tank, right? And again, these, you know, these early season games are our minimum have a minimal impact, right. So I think it’s good. I think Michigan is getting ahead of it. And of course, as you said, and I completely agree with the illegitimate NCAA is trying to make a point here, and public sentiment is against them, which is interesting that while there, there are people on Twitter, primarily Michigan State fans who love to pile on Michigan and Jim Harbaugh, nationally speaking, the tide is definitely against the NCAA, which is kind of interesting. So, so yeah, so I think that’s gonna do it here for our season preview. You know, some other interesting news that came out is that Roman Wilson is moving to the number one jersey, so we will look to see how that goes. And other than that, Clint, do you have any final words?

Clint Derringer 1:13:35
Yeah, a couple things. On the last few points. I do have concerns on actual game day logistics of coaches taking on multiple roles, you know, and lack of consistency. I think the I’ve continued to praise the players for being able to compartmental put all of that craziness to the side and to just focus on playing Football. I think they’re certainly capable. Again, but you know, if there’s our mentalizing and, you know, holding the chaos off to the side, 90 times out of 100, you know, that one time that they don’t, is still going to hurt. So I really I understand, you know, the the battle with the NCAA, I agree with your point about self imposing and pulling the rug out from the NCAA is case, instead of letting all of this linger. I agree with that. I do still expect there to be some problems with coaches outside of their normal roles, you know, having kind of a weekly position, and that’s not going to have a great impact, right, even if Michigan plays well, and you can’t really tell on the scoreboard. It’s not helping, right this is not a positive thing. So, um, you know, we’ll see, we’ll see how it ends up. I am glad that Harbaugh is trying to spin it into attention for his assistant coaches, who is he he has said, he’s got 10 assistant coaches that he thinks can be head coaches, you know, I think he’s helping to try to promote them to the best of his ability. But in terms of that Saturday in September, is it’s just another distraction. And I wish that it wasn’t there, in the grand scheme of things. So that there’s that point. And then the smaller thing, of course, with Roman Wilson, switching from number 14, the number one, I thought, you know, the quote, that he had coming out of fall camp about it that went with the discovery of the position switches. So yeah, there’s a lot of pressure that comes with wearing number one and Michigan. And that’s what I wanted, you know, and again, we see another example of a Michigan player, kind of saying exactly what you would want to hear if you were a coach, or, you know, a hyper engaged fan, like like you and I, it seems like he is doing it with full understanding of what that entails number one, which of course we appreciate, but also that he is embracing the challenge of it and trying to take that head on. And I like that, like that competitor, like that competitive spirit. And I think that it portends well, for Roman Wilson, I think he’s looking for making a big, impactful jump. After a couple good seasons here. I think he’s looking to really jump up a level and really be a significant threat, especially in the vertical passing game. So looking forward to see what what he brings with how he backs up those words.


Michigan Football Podcast — Chasing Perfection 8-17-23

Phil and Clint discuss Michigan QB JJ McCarthy’s leadership, RBs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, the offensive and defensive lines, the Michigan Method, and Jim Harbaugh’s extraordinary ability to upset people.

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Podcast Transcript

Phil Callihan 0:00
We have a lot to go over today. Lots of interesting things from Michigan Football camp. First things up, expectations are high. And you know, Clint, it’s interesting, because when I go through the depth chart, we’re just stacked at every position. So really excited. We got to hear from JJ and he had a very interesting quote, talking about the expectations.

J.J. McCarthy 0:46
Me personally, I’ve been fortunate to be on a lot of really good teams, a lot of great teams my whole life. So it’s always been what going back to my high school coach said, like, don’t buy, don’t eat the cheese. I mean, all that is just expectations, don’t let the expectations blind you from the present moment and what we’re doing right now. So it’s just like, you know, focusing on the task at hand every single day, and then the only rankings are the only expectations are potential that matters, just the ones that are in January. So we just take it day by day.

Phil Callihan 1:17
Clint, it seems like that the team is specifically JJ as the leader of the team understands the danger of getting too excited and listening to the outside hype.

Clint Derringer 1:32
I mean, it’s, it’s another credit to the maturity of JJ as an individual, which I think that he is shown really exceptional maturity sense, even when he was still at school as a recruit, during the 2020 season that Michigan struggled, you know, keeping that recruiting class together, staying positive and optimistic and really embracing the challenge that it would be to turn the program around and be a recruiting class that could kind of stem the tide, at really Michigan’s lowest moment, at least last decade, or at least of the Harbaugh era. So, A through his whole career, he’s shown a, you know, remarkable maturity on an individual level. And I think this is another example of that. And I would say, one of the strongest things about the Michigan program right now, is that there are, you know, multiple leaders in that locker room that have the same kind of maturity, that you like to see it, JJ is a really exceptional example of that, but he’s not the only one. So I think it’s also a testament to the culture that, you know, that the coaching staff and and Jim Harbaugh have been able to put together. And it really found and recruited leaders, as players to kind of take over and take that message into the locker room and really exemplify it day in and day out. And the results on the field are really, you know, they’re a result of this positive culture and being able to withstand some of the temptation and distraction that’s out there. And Michigan as a program is like the most striking example of just craziness outside of the building and off of the field. And just so much going on so much drama, happening, external to the program. And once you zoom in on Football activity, and get within the locker room, it seems like they have this really zen like calm and ability to to just block all of that noise out and focus on the task at hand. And this quote is just one more example of kind of a window into that culture.

Phil Callihan 4:01
JJ has had a steady hand throughout his entire time from a recruit, where he helped bring and recruit players in to play with them here. And again, even as the program was disappointing when he came in, he mentioned there was that famous tweet,

J.J. McCarthy 4:21
I actually saw that tweet on Instagram the other day, and I was just like, I really said that, like, it’s crazy how it really panned out, but I just it was one of those gut feelings. It was like, you know, we the program was not in a place that anyone in this building anyone in the state wanted it to be at. So when you have that much momentum, it’s almost just like thinking about a bow and arrow like 2020 We were right here. And I was just feeling I just knew that that was gonna get let go at some point. So it was just great that it happened when it did and the timing of all that was pretty beautiful, but it’s still going that arrow still soaring through the air It’s reaching new heights.

Phil Callihan 5:01
He always had the skill, right? There was always JJ is just an amazing and electrifying player. But he had that maturity as a leader. And it’s interesting because, you know, I used to describe the way the players perceived both him and Cade is, Cade was the the older brother that everybody respected and but kind of feared, right? JJ was the guy they love. He was little brother who, who just was really enthusiastic. But he also was showing that leadership. And I think that what was interesting about him acknowledging, you know, the outside expectations is, you know, it’s being realistic. You know, you can’t pretend that there aren’t high expectations, you can’t completely ignore it. But you also got to focus on getting the job done. Right. And it’s interesting, because I can’t think of a time since I’ve been a Michigan Football fan, where there is higher expectations. And yet, I feel as confident heading into the season. It’s really weird. You know, I was, I was kind of alluding that when I look at, you know, at the starters, it’s, you know, you look at how experienced Michigan is, and how they kind of reloaded using the transfer portal. And, you know, I’m excited for the season, the players seem loose, they seem excited, and as you mentioned, lots of off the field drama. And yet, it just seems to bounce right off. Now. Of course, we know there’s going to be adversity, there always is. It’s one of the reasons we watch. But it is interesting to see that this team just seems to just keep pushing forward. And, you know, you’ve mentioned the culture, the culture seems to be strong.

Jim Harbaugh 7:03
We’ve got general managers come through, we’ve had scouts come through one, one in particular, who was in our meetings, at practices, he said, This is vibrant. So that’s my word, I can’t I can’t get that word on my head that just best describes the, the vibe, the mentality, that’s, it’s infectious, can’t help help not picking up on that. And that’s, that was well defined, it’s, it’s fiber, and they take that from the, they take them from the meeting rooms, to the weight rooms, to the, to the practice field to the stadium, it’s

Phil Callihan 7:49
You really have to, you know, admire where the program is right now. You know, I think they described it…

J.J. McCarthy 7:56
Just a train that kept on rolling ever since TCU. Be ran into a little bit of an obstacle, but that train kept moving. And all the guys that came in the young guys, the transfers, they hopped on, and they kept helping us push all the way from the start of this winter offseason. And it’s just been really awesome to build off of that. Because a lot of times, it’s like, you build everything up for the season, you get to a certain point, then you got to be good goes back down. You got to build it back up again, it doesn’t feel like we went back down. We just kept going.

Phil Callihan 8:27
JJ is definitely at the lead of that. You know, you know, and it’s interesting, because he talked about, well, you know, there are questions about so how are you going to change this year? How is the offensive mix going to be different, you know, the run versus the pass? And, you know, there were questions about well, you know, JJ, are you concerned? I mean, what happens if you get hurt, and, you know, he had a great quote,

J.J. McCarthy 8:53
God, given me this great ability to use my legs got to use them more. I

Phil Callihan 8:57
It’s interesting that on one hand, they talk about being more balanced. And of course, I mean, you’re gonna keep running the ball. I mean, that is a hallmark of Michigan Football under Jim Harbaugh, especially with, you know, Donovan Edwards, being fully healthy by his own report and Blake Corum being, you know, hopefully 100% I mean, just completely loaded on the run game. So, you know, what are your perceptions and what are your expectations for the offense heading into the season.

Clint Derringer 9:32
Right, bringing JJ back in year two, you would as a starter, right, a third year player, second year starter, you would expect a significant jump, right? There’s, it’s a common theme. A little bit of a cliche that is anchored in a lot of evidence that, you know, the second year, there’s a big jump in understanding right things kind of slow down. For players for coaches. You know, from Game one to Game Two from year one to year two, just that the biggest jump when the when the learning curve is still really steep. So I think that bodes well for Michigan, I think we can expect to see improvement from JJ. And there was there was certainly a lot of room for improvement as well as he played. And as much admiration as we have, for him as a player and a leader in terms of down to down and making plays making decisions. there’s still room for him to grow, for what he’s what he’s done last year, and there’s no reason that he can’t take that leap. And I think we’ll see that in, in the statistics, as well as the, you know, the downtown results. So that’s a positive thing. I think switching the offensive coordinator position, right with, with Matt Weiss moving on, and Sharon Moore taking over that responsibility. You’re now your your offensive line coach really is the heart of your offensive coordinator, decision making. We know it’s always some level of committee work on Jim Harbaugh staff. But to have your line coach really taking a step forward as an offensive coordinator, I think reinforces what you said that the the offensive strategy is still going to be built around the run game. It’s where the strength was of last year’s team and the returning on the offensive line. And both of your top two running backs, Blake Corum really being on, you know, an All American pace through, you know, until he was injured in that Illinois game. There’s no reason for it not to be right. So it’s Jim, Harbaugh’s stubbornness and his commitment to to making the run game kind of the core of his offensive philosophy really, has created this identity for Michigan, I only expect it to get stronger this year. So I am interested, though, to see, if just the ratio of runs two passes, does move a little bit closer to 5050. Right to 50%. Each. You know, when we look at the the metrics after the games, when I’m tracking the play by play data, we remove the Garbage Time, right so that when you’re running out the clock with a big lead, you know, those those snaps are removed from the analysis. So when when we’re when the game is still on the line, seeing how they’re going to call plays. And if it’s going to be closer to 5050 than in years past, I think is still something that we can learn. And I will be interested to see earlier in the season because there there’s going to be limited snaps, especially early in the season when the when the weaker opponents are on the count or on the schedule. Your starters are only going to be in there for so long. And you have to you have to try to distribute the ball to all of your playmakers and two of those playmakers are Running Back. So it’s going to be an interesting math problem for Sharon Moore to figure out how to distribute the ball to all of your playmakers including, you know, giving JJ McCarthy the ability to to attack defenses through the air while still getting the ball into the hands of you know your your best weapons, which are probably your two Running Back. So I would expect that we see a little bit more Donovan Edwards in the passing game, even more so than we’ve seen in the last couple years. That kind of takes care of both of those problems. At the same time using the passing attack to get the ball to Donovan Edwards is a big benefit, and can create major matchup problems for this offense. So I’m hoping that we see more of that. And then really, the creativity that comes off of just another another season of a really potent rushing attack and a strong offensive line. So I think 70 to 80% of the snaps are going to look very similar to what we’ve seen in the past in terms of dynamic run plays a lot of different blocking schemes, stuff that you and I like in the detailed look. But the most interesting details might be how they, how they go off of the run game and try to attack down the field through the air and how often they they’re able to do that.

Phil Callihan 14:39
Donovan specifically mentioned being more involved in the passing game and also mentioned that, you know, he feels he’s completely healthy. What I wonder is, as you said, you need to get everybody involved. You need to get everybody in a rhythm. You need to shake out, you know, the bugs from the offense especially on the offense. That’s right. And I wonder, so again, hoping that we see more balance or expecting to see more balance. What I’m wondering about when I watched JJ is, you know, he was a little bit of a gunslinger last year, right. And, and it was interesting, because, of course, you know, through those two pick sixes that were so devastating, versus TCU. And there were times in the year where he was, you know, again, pushing the ball a little bit, right, and always had enough talent to get away from it, get away with it and keep moving. So, you know, his maturity as a as a player, knowing that you are loaded in the running game, and perhaps dialing back a little bit of of the risk taking, right. You know, last season coach, Harbaugh definitely, you know, has a huge man crush on JJ and talking about how he was amazing, a generational player. But, you know, being a generational player, it’s also knowing when you need to do that, and when to rein it in. And it’s going to be interesting, I think to see. You know, even some of the players have mentioned, like, how is JJ elevated? Well, he’s, he’s more dedicated. He’s more discipline. So, you know, what, how are we going to see that in the field? And I think the struggle we’re going to have is, you know, you don’t expect the first four games to really be much of a challenge. And, again, how do you give, you know, again, if you have guys break, breaking off 60 and 70 yard runs? How do you exercise the offense fully? And, you know, I know that may sound a little pretentious at this point in the season. But with these running backs, you really do expect that you expect big plays, and how do you balance out, again, exercising the offense, going through the playbook, doing what you need to do. And again, just, we just, you know, it’s interesting, because the offense just seems so loaded at this point. And again, just amazing depth that Running Back. You know, Donovan even mentioned that, you know, there’s a chance more than a chance that they’re gonna see, we’re gonna see him and Blake both on the field together,

Donovan Edwards 17:35
I will hope so, you know, that’s the coach’s plan. I don’t want to say anything too specific. But hope so it’ll be you know, you can’t, you can’t, you can’t cover me and worry about Blake at the same time, you got to pick and choose, I pick the choose the match of what you want to lose it.

Phil Callihan 17:55
You know, they learn from each other…

Donovan Edwards 17:58
We both can do the same thing. But we also do it in a different way. I always like looking at it as he does things better than I do. And there’s some things that I may do better than he does. So it’s like we complement each other. You know, it’s like, we’re both very versatile. You know, we’re both very fast, very, both very elusive. And there’s things that, you know, like we both bring to the table that one another could do very well, you know, and that’s not to say that, you know, like, he can’t catch the ball, he catches the ball very well, that’s not to say that I can’t like work on making a second miss in the second level, because that’s my focus of this offseason. So it’s definitely things that we both bring to the table, bring to the table for each other, to make each other better. And we’re both working on that this offseason, going into the season.

Phil Callihan 18:44
And, again, there’s just a a swagger. Okay. And, you know, we mentioned this, you know, two years ago heading into the season, where players are talking about the work they put in the offseason, and the confidence they had coming in. And, you know, we’ve seen two incredibly solid, extraordinary seasons. But it just seems like it’s continuing to roll and that is the expectation now. But what what’s amazing to me is, okay, so two years straight of beating Ohio State, two years straight of winning the big 10 Championship, that’s the bar now. And this team is talking about how they elevate that to the next level. And it doesn’t seem boastful. It seems like it is a they realize the burden that they have. And, you know, it’s not a burden, as as Coach Harbaugh talked about it.

Jim Harbaugh 19:42
Yeah, I would say that it’s a mission, right. I mean, I mean, some people, some people go to their job and it’s a job. For us, it’s, it’s a mission and even coined the last year. It’s a happy mission. That’s, that’s the vibrant way it hit my brain. I think that’s what we’re on.

Phil Callihan 20:03
There’s there’s just a swagger and a confidence that you know, as a huge Michigan Football fan and as a Football fan in general, it’s, it’s amazing to see the the attitude, and the humble confidence that this team is exhibiting so far.

Clint Derringer 20:23
Yeah, and I think each of the last few seasons, you can see that, again, the positivity that permeates through the culture really allows you to, to find some a new challenge, right, while still embracing kind of kind of what it took to get there. So the 21 team, with Aiden Hutchinson, as a leader in the locker room, was tasked with kind of turning after the debacle of the 2020 season and the COVID year. So just kind of read, resetting, resetting the bar, getting everybody back hard and working together and holding each other accountable, kind of laying the foundation for some of those positive culture traits that we’re talking about. Now. That was the whole task. That was the whole thing in 2021. And then in 2022, the challenge is really to prove that 21 wasn’t a fluke, that it wasn’t just one generational team. It wasn’t one weather forecast in November against the buckeyes, right? It wasn’t, you were able to take and build on 21 and then go into Columbus and win that game for the first time in over two decades, right. So to again, build and take another step forward, right to not be satisfied with qualifying for the college Football playoff, and to be to be prepared to win the game. And then now from 22 to 23. I think this team still seems very hungry and agitated because of the poor performance in many ways that we saw in the college Football playoff against TCU that they fully expected to win that game and be to challenge for a national title last year. And they fell short of that. And we know that that had an effect mentally on the competitors that are on the team. You know, Blake Corum decided to come back, you know, when he easily could have draft you had, you know, two or three of your offensive linemen, that likely were mid round draft picks that came back and are playing for Michigan, right? They they came back specifically, right because of that kind of unfulfilled objective and that that happy mission that Harbaugh was talking about in the fall camp pressors really is just a continuation of December in January, and where they fell short. And they’re just continuing to build and keep keep that hunger out rest on their laurels. And I think that challenge, right? starts, season it starts in fall camp and of course, has a lot to do with the strength staff in the offseason. And again, I go back to really this being a function of the leadership traits that you’ve recruited in the players that are now juniors and seniors, and are leading the team. They they’re the ones that really set the objectives and set the bar for what the season has to look that look like and bout it, you know, one day at a time, one practice at a time and eventually one game at a time.

Phil Callihan 23:51
Well, you know, when we’re talking about expectations, right, I think back to 97. Okay, Michigan’s national championship here. And a lot of the narrative around that was, as you said, a generational team, a generational player in Charles Woodson and just lightning struck. And the next year expectations were high, and the team just came out and, you know, got their head knocked off. Right. And what we’re seeing now is the team just reloads right? Oh, as you said, oh, you know, Blake Corum might leave and and Donovan Edwards expressed how surprised he was then he’s like, Okay, you’re back. Let’s get to work, right?

Donovan Edwards 24:41
Oh, yeah, it was a surprise. Yeah, it was a surprise because you know, he was coming off with such a fantastic year. 1400 Almost 1500 carries going into was it the 11th in the 11 game so he could have been close to like 2000 you So I’m expecting him to go to the NFL. But, you know, he told me like two or three hours before he was coming back, kind of wait another year. But I’m very grateful for it, though, you know, because it gives me another opportunity, the way that I see it to like, learn, you know, to continue to grow to help us hope each other complement each other. And for him to come back to, I know that we’re going to be very successful, because we’re bringing back we’re bringing back the best Running Back during the country again, you know, so I’m very grateful, and I’m blessed that he’s coming back.

Phil Callihan 25:36
The players are coming back. Because not only do they have individual goals, but they culturally, they see the goal of the team unfinished, and they’re coming back to, to finish the mission. So it’s just interesting that it’s not, we better get out of here, before everything falls apart, it’s, Hey, I want to stick around because it’s going to stay good. And whatever opportunities there are for me in the pro ranks, well, they’ll be there. And, you know, we can’t ignore the impact of NIL that it makes it more palatable for these guys to stick around. And, and, you know, we both talked about how great that is. But, again, and I was great, and I’m sure they’re doing, you know, really well, but not as well as, as, you know, a first or second round NFL contract. So I think it’s important to emphasize the difference in culture, right? And that, there just seemed, and again, you know, I always say, you know, we get to see things. I always try to see things through a fans eyes, right. And I’m just impressed at how confident and how relaxed these guys are. There’s not a tension, there’s not a oh, what’s going to happen? It’s, I can’t wait. Right? Put in the work, do everything. And, you know, it’s interesting. During availability, Roman Wilson came out. And I have to say, like, I’ve always liked Roman, okay. But he has like a maturity this year. Like, just, you know, he’s like, Yeah, I’m ready to be JJ his go to guy, if that’s what he wants.

Roman Wilson 27:30
Being a more dependable, reliable receiver, I feel like I can step into that role of being JJ his go to guy, if that’s if that’s what he wants, you know, I’m ready for that. And I feel like, that’s what’s going to take me to the next level, if I come out there. I know, I’m the best receiver on the theater a lot of times, like, I don’t care who’s out there. I know what I can do. I know what I bring to this team, when they need me, like, I’m gonna show up, like, I’ve proven it. I’ve proven it to show up, CJ has proven it to like, show up with big time. So that’s just like, this is our mentality, like, we know where to best. You know, our team may not always need us, but when when it’s time, like we’re gonna be there and we’re gonna show out,

Phil Callihan 28:03
You know, here’s a guy who’s, you know, been injured in two straight seasons and been dinged up and he’s just, you know, he’s ready. He’s like, hey, it was bad luck. i It’s not anything I did wrong. And, you know, he’s expecting good things. And I just, you know, if I could just express to people the, the nature of this team, right, and, you know, they’re having fun

Roman Wilson 28:32
there’s a gentleman back there. Question

Donovan Edwards 28:37
What are you going to be a leader on this?

Roman Wilson 28:40
Sunday I want to do to be a leader. He walked away but so I want to do to be a leader as a stepping out of my comfort zone. Being a little more vocal. That’s not something I like to do. I don’t like being vocal. But you know, sometimes you guys say it’s you got to say even though if it’s uncomfortable, so so good question. Thank you. What up?

Donovan Edwards 28:58
What is it a bunch of game there’s some reason

Roman Wilson 29:01
I mean, if you’ve watched my game, you know, you put me in that category of like, I’m a fast guy. I’m not just a fast guy like I can I come out the backfield I can play wide out play slot, you know, I am fast, I can go up and get the ball and I can run off the couch, great hands. Who I am, I feel like I separate. I feel like everyone’s missing something. I feel like I’m just too much.

Phil Callihan 29:24
You see these guys gelling? And, of course, we don’t know what happens in the locker room. We don’t know what happens in practice. I’m sure tempers flare I’m sure not everybody is singing Kumbaya all the time. But when you when these guys describe what it’s like to play and to prepare, they they genuinely seem like they’re, they’re united in as Harbaugh said a happy mission. And, you know, we’re going to talk a little bit later about, you know, the, the endless drama off the field, but it really Lee doesn’t seem to bother them. It’s just, if anything, you know, I wonder, Clint, if the, again, the endless, seemingly drama, you know, with coaches leaving and, you know, NCAA interference, NCAA incompetence, if, if that almost is just helps them, you know, they just tune everything out, you know, and it’ll be interesting. You know, the players really don’t, you know, when they’ve been asked, they really don’t talk about it with any specificity. But it would be interesting after the season to kind of, you know, to follow that thread and that narrative and see if, if, how that really impacts things. And if at a certain point, you just tune everything out and, and had into practice?

Clint Derringer 30:50
Yeah, I think to that extent, you know, the head coach, especially, you know, hardball, but the whole staff, really, they have to deal with all of that external action, to try to let the players really zoom in and focus on and be laser focused on the task at hand. And it’s what they, you know, rants what they preach as a staff, clearly the players have bought in and they do that, and it’s a, you know, it’s a challenge to do that, mentally and psychologically, but it’s pretty clear that these particular players, at least for the last, you know, three years now have been able to do that. And it’s part of what, what you’re expected to do is block out all of the all of that ridiculous noise and to be able to focus on the task at hand. So it’s, it’s, I’m glad that we have players in those leadership positions that are capable of doing that, and that they’ve executed that because it is, I’m sure, it’s a very fine line. And it really, you know, we’re, we’re talking about it now in August, as if this season, you know, has gone according to expectations, but it hasn’t, right, we still have to get through a, you know, a schedule, that’s kind of a snoozer through the first month of the season. And, and, you know, there’s a lot can happen between now and then, to where, you know, some of these types of problems could still emerge. So as good as it is to hear in August, and it’s clear that they’re aware of the risk that comes with those types of challenges. That’s a great thing, but they still have to do it. And we still have to have, you know, 120 130, you know, 18 to 22 year old kids, you know, all pulling in the same direction with the challenges that are that this season is going to pose, you know, and you never know where that adversity is going to come from and when it’s going to come. But you’ve got to be prepared to to bounce back and answer that in full force when it happens. So I don’t want to oversell it, I am glad to hear it and to kind of feel it from the culture perspective in fall camp, but the you know, that’s still not doing it, you still have to go out there. You know, what, in September and October and indefinitely in November and be able to, to execute and continue to do it week after week. And that’s, you know, you still have to do that.

Phil Callihan 33:23
When Harbaugh began his tenure at Michigan, there was it seemed like he was experimenting a little bit. And he kind of fell back to this run heavy run first offense. And I remember the media just piling on Well, that’ll work in the early season, but you can’t do that when the games count. And what’s impressed upon me as I’m watching this team is not only are they doing it, but And yes, again, it’s offseason. Everybody’s happy in the offseason. You know, you always say a plan is great until he gets punched in the nose. Right? They haven’t been punched in the nose. There’s no adversity. And yet I can think back Clint to where there were teams where there was one back and that was it. Right you knew who the back was going to be and everybody else kind of you know retreated to the side. Well, here you have two amazing backs. And there doesn’t seem to be any jealousy if anything, you know, downwind was talking about trying to pick up some corals moves.

Donovan Edwards 34:35
Really liked that Blake Corum shuffle…you know how big the making people missing the open field? That’s really well I’m trying like trying to add to my bed making the safety missing from make the safety message should be a touchdown every single time.

Phil Callihan 34:50
The way that this offense has calibrated itself to really impose its well, we are going to run and you know, here we are. Well, we’re hoping there’s more balance. But, you know, I keep thinking if things go wrong, well, they’re just going to run the ball. And they’re going to, you know, and Coach Harbaugh talked about

Jim Harbaugh 35:10
I read that another team was, was doing that for their quarterbacks. Michigan methods, I liked it. I liked the way that sounded. So that’s some Michigan method. The who, who plays who plays who gets to start the best players? How do you know the best player is they play the best? So define what the Michigan method is? That that would that would that would define it well.

Phil Callihan 35:37
And we saw this last year where you had two starting quarterbacks and the way we were going to decide who is the best was, you know, roll the ball out, and let’s see how they do. Right. And there’s so there’s so much depth on the offensive line, that Harbaugh says, I have four tackles. I have four guards. I have two centers, we’ll see how this goes. And to have that kind of depth, not only on the on the offensive line, but at Running Back. And listen, I hope Blake is completely healthy. Okay. I hope Donovan’s completely healthy. And yet, when they both got dinged up last year, it was next man up. And and part of that is the system. Part of that is okay, we you know, yes, they’re both incredible backs. But we have a system here that is going to put the Running Back in a position to do a lot of different things. And a great back will be able to do more. And I just think back. And again, I keep thinking back to 234 years ago, as this transition was happening and all the pundits saying it’s not going to happen. This isn’t how you do it. Right. And, you know, I was thinking back to the Don Brown defense, right? of, well, we’re just gonna blitz like crazy, right? And it’s more sophisticated than it is. And I remember thinking, No, it’s not, right. No, it’s not. And eventually it kind of it hit its ceiling, right? Well, in a lot of ways, if you flip it, that’s where we are on the offense but hardball showed you can do it. Like people kept saying, well, there’s a ceiling to running the ball first or being so run heavy. And he’s just built this team from the ground up. And it is imposing its well. And it’s, it’s it’s amazing to see and, and again, I keep coming back to when you talk to these players involved in the Michigan method. Okay. Now, granted, I don’t think Cade was super happy last year. And understandably so no competitor is going to be happy splitting jobs, when they think they’ve won it, or they think that they were successful in the past. But for the team, that’s, that’s one of the ways you, you know, you know, they always like to say iron sharpens iron, right? Well, you have these guys who are competing, and they’re not, there’s like on the offensive line, it’s not obvious who’s gonna win. Okay. That’s how good the talent is. And that’s how high the expectation is, for the positions. And and again, it’s just, I take a step back from where we were three or four years ago. And the expectation now and again, yes, they need to do it on the field, because that’s where it counts. But, you know, Clint, if you were to look at this team, what would you say the weakness is heading into the heading of the season? What are your concerns?

Clint Derringer 38:34
Well, I think I definitely feel the same way you do about depth on the offensive side of the ball. But I think if if we’re going to praise it on that side of the ball, then it’s a concern on the defensive side of the ball. Where last year upfront on the defensive line, your best player Mike Morris, your second best player mozzie Smith both gone into the NFL draft with guys again there there are people there, they’re they’re experienced, younger guys ready to step into those positions for sure. I’m very excited to see what Mason Graham’s gonna be able to do. You know, I want to I don’t want to say that it’s Dire Straits by any by any means, however, the depth and the the embarrassment of riches the defensive side, I’m not so sure that we have it on the defensive side. And we’ve seen that in the last couple years. Poke its head up. If you think to two years ago, I remember a home game against Rutgers that Josh Ross got dinged up middle linebacker on the defense and then all of a sudden, Michigan was unable really to stop kind of an inverted year look from from records with a running Quarterback. So I do I do worry a little bit about the second corner position, you know the cornerback on the opposite side. Um, we’ll Johnson right, I think we have high expectations for Willie Johnson, he kind of grew and matured into a starter by the end of season as a true freshman. But when you just look at it on paper, you lost both of your your day one starting cornerbacks from last year’s team. So I would question whether we have the same kind of layers and layers and layers of depth, like, you know, like rows of teeth and a shark, that we would like to think it is, I’m not so sure that we have that on defense, at least we don’t know, for sure that we have that on defense. So again, I have very high expectations for what the defense is going to do. I’m not, you know, sounding an alarm at all. But if I were to pick one main concern, from the umbrella of the entire season, I would worry a little bit about defensive depth, linebacker, defensive line. And in the secondary, that if you get one or two, certainly two injuries at a key position, where all of a sudden, I think, would be noticing a drop off inexperience and maybe even in talent. So that would be probably number one. Haven’t kind of put together my preview article. This week, you know, kind of looking at it game by game and how it shapes up on the on the calendar. And I was really struck recently, like it didn’t notice this when the schedule came out until I started looking at it this week. Michigan plays five road games this year for the season, right there seven home regular season games and five road games. But those five road games happen in the span of seven games from the fifth game to the 11th game. Michigan has five row games in two home games, with a bye week next in there, and there’s a stretch here in October, that Michigan plays three out of the four weeks on the road. And again, that type of challenge. It’s not X’s and O’s. It’s not, you know, lifting weights, it’s not execution on the field. It’s really a mental and an emotional challenge with the added stress and the added logistic logistics and timing of playing on the road. You know, it’s in addition to kind of being in a in a hostile atmosphere. So those two things together are where I would say, I need to see with my own eyes first. What kind of depth we’re talking about all three levels of the defense, you know, who’s taking a jump forward, right? I’m thinking of Braden McGregor becoming a real threat on the edge, he’s got to take a jump forward for this defense to be as good as they can be. I think the safeties young guys like Keon sab, older guys like McCarthy page, these are guys that have to take big steps forward on that defense, and, and show that we’ve got that same kind of depth that we’re bragging about on the offensive side. And then the mental challenge of playing so many road games through the middle of the season, from the fifth game to the 11th game, showing that you can really go into some hostile environments and still win, including, you know, rivalry game in East Lansing, and then really a challenging environment at Penn State two weeks at or three weeks after we play the Spartans. So those are the big things right now. From where I sit in August, if, if, if we’re focusing on what needs to get answered, in order for Michigan to achieve what they want to achieve, which is big 10 title and national title hopes, then that’s where I would be focusing if I was in if I was in that locker room.

Phil Callihan 43:52
So you mentioned Braiden McGregor, he had a, you know, he had a great quote,

Braiden McGregor 43:56
I mean, the no star defense is a great way to put it. Just looking around, you see all these guys and everybody can make plays, you know, our defense is built on so much trust. We have so much trust from you know, the D line to linebackers to the DVDs. I mean, you look around, you’re you know, when you’re out there and say I got some like a jazz piano player and I’m like, look behind him, I Okay, I know, Mike is gonna come fill this gap. And I’m not even worried about making the play. I’m just got to do my job and the play is going to be made. So having that no star defense mentality is good for all of us. I mean, it built so much trust with us. And, you know, it’s up to the leadership. Everybody can be a leader. It doesn’t have to be the, you know, the one starting guy, so it’s definitely helped this year.

Phil Callihan 44:41
And I agree with you. I really like the analogy of the shark’s teeth. Right. I do feel like that on the offensive line. I you know, I’m not so sure about the offensive line. I’ll tell you my big concern. Heading in is the kicking game. kickoffs punts. field goals. We’ve been incredibly fortunate the last several seasons. And as great as the team was last year, came down to a kick, right against Illinois. And it was really automatic. It was I mean, and again, I, you don’t want to take anybody for credit. But you know, money moody, right? It was, you know, and you know, the other positions, get the sizzle, right, Quarterback receiver, kick returner, big plays, right. But field position is incredibly impactful. And we have been, it has been automatic for the last two or three seasons. And it’s interesting, because, you know, we may know who is going to fill that position. But we really have no idea how steady that is going to be. And, you know, there have been situations in the past where you would have a player be really good beginning of their career or beginning of the season. And again, you know, the kicking game is, is there’s a huge mental aspect to it. And I am not sure, as as much as Moody was popular last year, and Brad Robins was, you know, again, they were the they were the dynamic duo. I’m not sure that casual Football fans appreciate how incredibly consistent they were. And that is my number one concern, you know, punching and kicking. And just it, you know, as much as just being a fan, something can keep me awake at night, because I obviously have no control over it. But that is my concern. That I mean, we saw what happened to Ohio State last year, right? Ohio State could have bailed out their season. And you know, missed that field goal. And it’s just one of those things where you, you don’t think about it until it happens. And then when it happens, it’s really bad. It’s really bad. And to think about how automatic field position has been and how automatic you know, field goals have been? It is it is the thing is the number one thing that concerns me, and I’m sure when we get into our preseason preview, you know, that was one of the things I was really going to beat the drum on is, man, I’m going to be watching that. And again, the first three or four games, right, it shouldn’t matter. But you know, we’ll definitely be paying attention, I think it’s going to be it’s going to be who’ve Michigan special teams to be extraordinary to really pick up right out of the gate, and be able to contain the return games. And again, it’s going to be on the offense to not put team in the position where they really need feel gold and and again, got to play it on the field, looking at the roster shouldn’t be a concern. But man, it’s it worries me as the season heads on. So that’s one of the things that that I’m really concerned about something that, you know, I wasn’t that concerned about heading in. And, you know, as we talked about things, that’s one of the things that that I just I cringed a little bit,

Clint Derringer 48:28
You’re replacing maybe the best kicker in Graham’s history, right? I mean, by making objective measurements, right, it’s really hard to come up with a better answer than Jake moody is the best kicker in the program’s history. So just from a from a statistic and probability standpoint, you have to assume there’s going to be some regression to the mean, you know, as good as our next kicker may or may not be, it’s going to be really hard to be as good as moody has been. So we’re going to feel that difference in most probability. And I think Brad Robins was very, very consistent. And so we’ll see how that how that plays out. But there’s, we’ll talk more about some of the field position metrics to the point that maybe there might be some room to grow and even improve there. So we’ll be specific and try to set some what we think are the key indicators of whether, you know, when comparing to last year’s team, where can they do better? Where do they need to try to kind of hold serve and stay as good? And it’s, it’s interesting to kind of keep an eye on that from week to week.

Phil Callihan 49:43
You know, and again, you just look back to you know, remember Michigan, Michigan State. You know, several seasons ago, Michigan had the game in hand and you had a special teams failure. We have the thing thing about both moody and robins is they were just consistent that were not screw ups. Okay. And, you know, it’s funny, you know. And again, I look at the game, you know a little differently. It’s like Offense, Defense special teams, okay? When you’re really good on offense and defense, you can be okay on special teams. Michigan was great on special teams. And again, we can talk about how great the punting game was, but there weren’t any big mistakes, right? And when you’re when you’re, when you’re over matching, okay, other teams, the way they can get back is to be chance, special teams and Michigan really contain that. So that’s, you know, and it’s not just, you know, we’ve kind of been banging on the kicking game, but, but it’s also, you know, coverage, it’s also all those things that you know, a momentary lapse of focus, and you give a big play to the other team. So, those are the things that I’m really going to focus on and, and speaking of, of special teams, coach, Harbaugh had had a little nugget for us.

Jim Harbaugh 51:11
Also a secret plan for Alex Orji. He might be he got a chance to be maybe one of the greatest kick returners of all time. Big 235 pound guy, so he just started, he just started doing it, we’ll see how it goes. He’s also excelling at Quarterback. So there’ll be some decisions that have to be made. I we have to we have to improve in our in our kickoff return blocking, before I would agree to have Alex orgy returning the kick. So there’s a there’s a bit of a challenge there going on. It’s it’s made for quite a bit of excitement and enthusiasm that our kickoff return blockers have seen what Alex can do as a kick returner, but the challenge is on them to, to get better get better at their fundamentals and their techniques and, and, you know, give him a chance to because if he if he can if we can make it happen, it would be it’d be really special. But I mean, club amalinks is very similar in that it would be similar in that role. But yeah, there’s some there’s some excitement there.

Phil Callihan 52:23
You never know how much Coach Harbaugh was playing mental games. I definitely believe that Alex Orji I think they’re trying to find a way to get him on the field. Right. Really good athlete really interesting potential. But, you know, I’ve, I’ve seen conjecture where, you know, there’s some drama at The Ohio State Quarterback position. So Harbaugh makes a comment about we got so many quarterbacks, we’re putting them on kickoff return, and you just kind of kind of wonder either way, but you know, it is interesting that, you know, I think last year, we really wondered where we were going to be with kick returns, with, you know, with with players coming back from injuries, and it seems like it’s kind of a of a wide open position this year. You know, you mentioned potentially Roman wealth and and again, perhaps Alex orgy, but, you know, the same way that, you know, I’m going to be looking to see how Michigan does, you know, in the kicking aspect, I would really love to see us find some lights out returner who can really, you know, exploit other lapses by the other team. Right. So that would be great to see that would be something that I’d love to see added to the mix. But again, it’s one of the things Coach Harbaugh had for us. And always entertaining as always. And, you know, it’s interesting, because, you know, you look at it, and we talked about kind of the drama happening off field, and that definitely involves Coach Harbaugh. For those following along at home. Initially, the word was he was going to be, he was going to set out the first four games. And the word was expected any minute that that was going to be official. And then it’s come out that the NCAA infractions committee has rejected that proposed settlement. So the good news is that Jim Harbaugh will be on the sideline for this season. And, you know, they asked him about it.

Question 54:42
Can you speak to any of the NCAA situation now that it appears that they did make a comment on Twitter, can you can you respond to that or where the NCAA situation stands?

Jim Harbaugh 54:52
No, no, I can’t come out.

Phil Callihan 54:55
He didn’t have a lot to say which is probably good. The bad news is, is that the punishment will be looming. Okay? And, you know, we both talked about how little we think of the NCAA enforcement of things. And no, it just seems that we’re in for another offseason of drama. If they’re not going to accept this penalty, it may be add to the narrative of reasons for Jim Harbaugh to leave in the offseason. And, you know, there’s all kinds of stories going around, Clint, of you know, why the infractions committee, it may go back to somebody who has who has long had a grudge against Coach Harbaugh, and may actually been involved in why he may have impacted the job search for the Minnesota Vikings. So, again, just tons of off field drama. And and I have to wonder, you know, it’s amazing, I wonder if the players is tuned it out? Because it is so consistent.

Clint Derringer 56:05
Yeah, I mean, you have to, there’s nothing that they can do other than be distracted. So you have to tune it out. I have to think that’s the strategy. The, again, the revisiting the NCAA and the committee on infractions. And all of this, they seem pretty hell bent on trying to make sure that they make more of an example of Michigan than would have been made by a four game suspension for games only where he was coaching at practice through the week. I agree. That’s, that’s, that’s a slap on the wrist of of any type, regardless of what the infraction is. So the problem, at least for me, is that this is now going to be four years removed, likely, right? As we go into the offseason and 2024, this is going to be four years removed from the minor level two infractions that are at the root of the entire problem. And then that investigation, where now we’re into a battle of semantics, and you know, defending your honor, certainly from Harbaugh’s perspective, about whether he lied or was forthcoming, or, you know, cooperated fully with the investigation. So this has now boiled down to, you know, a clash of personalities between Harbaugh and how he handled himself during this, you know, minor infractions investigation, and the the committee on infractions, and how they feel slighted with how he dealt with them. And it’s, it’s now it’s now it’s a measuring contest to see, you know, who can who can be the most petty. So none of this has any real impact on the 2023 season, I really hope that it’s easier for the players and the program to kind of compartmentalize and set this to the side. And again, we’ll be talking about it, I’m sure, in January, when it all comes back up. But all of your points are valid in terms of the offseason drama, I think we’ve, we’ve pretty much accepted you and I that offseasons in the horrible era are going to be, you know, pretty full of drama of different types, depending on what’s going on and, and, you know, some level of stress for those of us who want him to remain the coach, you know, but, you know, I think you know, that you take the good with the bad to some extent. And, you know, this particular level of drama, is again, I I wish that there were never any problems from 2020. Right. But again, the people that were involved, many of them have moved on already, to other programs. This is something that was based on, all based in, you know, how the program handled themselves during the COVID season, which was a total debacle of a season. Anyway, so turning, you know, so to speak, a one day story into a four year story is the part of it right now that that makes me shake my head the most. And again, for the NCAA to be acting in such such a small and petty manner, at least from from what I can see. It’s just frustrating. And it’s clear to me that they’re trying to make an example of some major program that they can get their hands on, and we’ll see how it shakes out. I don’t I think that if they had if they had the ability to come down on hardball really, really hard. They would have done Never already. So to me, this seems like even more posturing. And that’s why it’s even more frustrating to me.

Phil Callihan 1:00:06
The NCAA has apparently even broken their own rules while investigating Jim Harbaugh. So, you know, they’re not supposed to talk about an ongoing investigation. And here’s what they said. The Michigan infractions case is related to impermissible on and off campus recruiting during the COVID 19 dead period, and impermissible coaching activities, not a cheeseburger. So, you know, there you go. You know, it’s it’s interesting that, you know, there’s the Snark you know, it’s funny, because Jim Harbaugh gets dinged on, you know, kind of being a little bit of smart aleck and thumbing his nose at authority on occasion, and then you kind of get, you know, snark coming back. So again, you know, it’s having followed Jim Harbaugh for practically all of his career, right. The list of people he’s pissed off is long and distinguished, right. I mean, from from Bo Schembechler, right. I mean, there’s a story about Jim sitting in his chair when he was a young kid when his dad was, was on the coaching staff, right. And Bo, tell him to get out of his chair right, to talking about you know, his Ohio State guarantee. He’s pissed off, Mike Ditka. When he was in the NFL, he’s upset various players that he’s played against. He’s upset other coaches. He’s upset. I mean, again, the list is long. Okay. It’s super power seems to be upsetting people. And, you know, the NCAA, we’ll just need to take a number and get in line because, you know, I don’t think Jim is going to stop To be continued. In the offseason, Coach Harbaugh has definitely talked about, you know, that it hasn’t hurt the team focus at all.

Jim Harbaugh 1:02:04
You know, that’s it’s the beauty of my dad’s mantra. Attack each day, with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. It just frames it right there. Attack each day, attack this day, with a through z as a man, unknown to mankind, and living living by it daily. And it’s been good. It’s worked. We’re chasing perfection.

Phil Callihan 1:02:35
Hopefully we won’t have to talk about this particular NCAA issue until the offseason.

Clint Derringer 1:02:42
Yeah, I agreed. Let’s Let’s just hope that it stays out of the 23 season, if at all possible, and we’ll we’ll dig back into it when we’re in the downtime and looking for things to talk about related to Michigan Football, then we can embrace it and really dig into the details.

Michigan Football Podcast — Bigger and Better 8-6-23

Phil and Clint discuss an even bigger Big Ten conference (the BIGGEST Ten EVER!), NCAA officials make a bigger joke of themselves (and that’s saying something), bigger scoreboards and more options for your drinking pleasure at the Big House, and trouble at Northwestern.

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Podcast Transcript

Phil Callihan 0:00
You M go blue.com by fans for fans since 1999. Hello, welcome to this edition of the UNM go blue.com podcast. This is Phil Callihan, along with Clint Derringer. And we have a lot going on in college Football a lot impacting the Michigan Wolverines. The big news is the big 10 has expanded again, Oregon and Washington will be joining the crew. So well, Clint, what do you think about that? I mean, we just had USC and UCLA announced they were joining. And now we have two more joining the club.

Clint Derringer 0:43
Yeah, I think it’s, it’s crazy. I mean, not from a very high level in the grand scheme of things. It kind of fits with this sort of inevitable march toward, you know, larger conferences, super conferences, you know, it’s related, of course, to the playoff expanding, sort of in the in the grander context, I think it’s, it fits, but the way that it played out, and the the timeline, and the are they in are they out back and forth of this week is really just been crazy, it’s been tough to you could tell that there must be people that are talking to everybody at the same time, you know, and I get a deal or a conversation over here, the PAC 12 is ready to announce a deal that with with Apple, you know, immediate rights deal, and try to kind of lock down the conference for the PAC 12. And then four or five members jump, you know, three to the big 12, two more to the big 10. And they’re down to four active members starting in the 24 season. So all of that played out, inside of, you know, maybe like 36 or 48 hours, late this week, it was just bananas, the timeline and the scrambling, and trying to keep up with kind of the headlines and what had changed. So like I said, I think we’ve talked about this especially in the offseasons the last few years, that there’s this is kind of you can see the path that is laid out here, obviously driven by ever increasing revenue. And it fits into that that narrative. But man, what a wild week for almost every conference, it has something going on right now. It’s I don’t think that this has come to rest, I think that there will be more headlines in the near future. It’s just it just doesn’t feel stable or balanced at this time. Well, and I think that’s the interesting point is that this kind of just shock the system, not really a surprise that things were changing, but I think shocked how quickly it happened. And it’s not done. Right, I think that we’re all kind of sitting here waiting for the next shoe to drop. And, you know, when you get into the details,

Phil Callihan 3:19
USC and UCLA, we’re coming in as full revenue share partners, you know, you have Oregon Washington coming in with going to be getting $30 million a year, which is, which is not chump change, and it will go up a million dollars a year. But full big 10 members get $60 million. So they’re coming in as as you know, with half a share, right. And still, you know, looking at the long term, they realize that this is where you want to be revenue wise. This also kind of well not kind of nukes, the schedules that were released. You know, we had talked about that with the flex schedules and the protected rivalries. And the big 10 has said that they’re going to reissue scheduled for the 24 and 25 seasons. So hopefully nobody bought their airfares or made any big plans. And again, just incredible. You know, the last time, you know, when we talked about USC and UCLA joining, you know, I said, Well, you have the big 10 going from sea to shining sea. And now you’re basically going to virtually every corner of the country with the exception of SEC territory. So the big 10 is really kind of you know, and I gotta give them credit, you know, I’m not a big fan. You know, I haven’t been a big fan of the management of the big 10 or the leadership, but they really have pulled these deals off. And whereas you would say five or 10 years ago, the SEC was the dominant conference and everybody was kind of chasing the Big 10 has responded, and the SEC still is, has a lot of shine to it. You know, there’s no doubt there, but the big 10 has has made some strategic moves to kind of be one of the big two, right? We can, we can debate which one’s the big one. And I think the big 10 needs more Football national championships to really lay claim. But from a revenue standpoint, and a a geographic footprint stand standpoint, the big 10 is put itself in a really interesting position.

Clint Derringer 5:43
Yeah, and you mentioned it there in that last, that last sentence, I think it depends on which context you’re talking about, when you’re talking about a big conference, or a dominant conference, whether it’s about results, you know, on on the field or across all of the sports, you know, revenue, non revenue, Olympic sports, however you categorize them, you start looking at that way, is one particular metric. But really what is driving this is the revenue sharing model, and the access to resources that it brings, and the relationship with the different media companies, television companies, that drives that. And you’re right, that the big 10 While the SEC was dominating on field success, and still continues to this day, in terms of Football success, the big 10 was able to find a path through, you know, expanding their geographic footprint and acquiring more and more market share in terms of TV revenue, that they kind of forced their way into the conversation at the top. without, without the, you know, without having to try to chase down the SEC in terms of onfield success. So now, the two larger conferences in terms of revenue sharing the SEC, and the big 10 are kind of pulling away from the pack, the other the other conferences, and you can see the strain that that’s causing, it’s it’s not only the PAC 12. So the PAC 12 demise here has kind of a long history, I don’t know it well enough to try to kind of recap it all. But I can tell you, that they got all the way here to the end of their media rights deal, without a good replacement, you know, being negotiated. And that made the member institutions so nervous, that they kind of became ripe for the picking that the decision is at the end of the rainbow here with Oregon. And with Washington, there was a there was a if you stay in the Pac 12. And look at this deal with Apple. It’s short term, you could get out after two years. But it’s going to be about whether this package drives apple plus subscriptions up right there’s kind of a contingency or or a clause there that, yes, you could make a lot of money per institution, but it’s got to drive more subscriptions to to the platform. And if it fails, then you know, you don’t make any money. It’s kind of like a commission model. And the guaranteed model with the big 10, even with half a share was financially equivalent to what they could make, maybe in the Pac 12 deals. So it’s what drives the whole, the whole thing was financial stability. You know, these these large, Athletic Department Budgets, if you start messing around with the main source of revenue, 30 million a year, like you’re saying for half a share in the big 10 60 million a year for these other you know, full member institutions in the New Deal. If you start making that fluctuate, then the hard decisions are going to become real, the four members of the PAC 12 that are still remaining are going to have real issues without a deal in place, you know, the main source of their revenue. Being cut means what for the rest of their athletic department, they’re going to have to figure out something in the real near term here. So these are becoming real world decisions. And that’s it’s not just like a huge college Football game of Risk like we treat it sometimes in the media and as fans but you know, these athletic departments have almost 100% of their annual revenue on the table getting you know snatched away from them is going to create an existential crisis similar to what we saw with the pandemic. So it’s it’s real business and starting to be crunch time for a lot of these institutions. And the members that jumped out of the PAC 12 created an opportunity and the big 10 swooped in just like, just like the big 12, the big 12 added three of the PAC 12 members in the last week, and Colorado was one of the first dominoes to fall in this particular realignment cycle. So really crazy, really crazy. And like I said, it just doesn’t feel to me at all that that it’s stabilized, there are still more questions than answers. Like you mentioned that the schedule, the lot of effort went into creating this scheduling model for the big 10. Clearly, the league office expected at least to get to 2024. Before any of this happened, right. All of this was kind of under the assumption that the PAC 12 would get their stuff together. And that any opportunities to continue expanding, would have been down the road. And the fact that they couldn’t get it done, really, hyper accelerated all of this change into one offseason here in 2023. And now, it’s really feels like we’ve crossed the Rubicon.

Phil Callihan 11:24
So what’s interesting when you jump into the details of the of the way the revenue splits gonna be, right. USC and UCLA are full portions, right. And this is because they were member institutions when the big deal got negotiated, right. So that is it. So they they got in right underneath the wire, right. But what’s interesting is, so Oregon and Washington are gonna get 30 million, but it’s gonna go up a million every year. Right? So no doubt, right. And then the other interesting thing, when you jump into the numbers is, it’s expected to be 60 million, it could be more, depending on ancillary deals. So and then, you know, the current deal runs through 2930. And then then they’re going to be, you know, full participating members. So there’s increased pressure on more changes, right? Because the more of of the budget continues to need to be fed, right? As you add the schools, and they’re expecting this money, the expectations go up, the stakes go up, as you said, it’s, you’re not I love that analogy that, you know, viewing this college Football landscape as a game of Risk, right. But when you look at it, and again, I go back, listen, I’m still salty about Rutgers and Maryland. Okay, I still roll my eyes when I see them on the schedule. But when you see that as the first domino and seeing how this is ending, you know, and I can’t say this, I have to tip my hat. Right, that. And again, as the SEC was dominating on the field, the big 10 was making moves here. And, you know, the next thing is, alright, so you have the SEC kind of geographically landlocked, right. So I think the, you know, Clint, you’ve mentioned this in previous podcasts. Well, okay, so you got the big 10 From sea to shining sea. Just locked up the West Coast, huh? You kind of look to the ACC and wonder, you know, first where does this put Notre Dame as one of the big revenue, quote unquote, independents kind of aligned with the ACC Football wise, right. And, and the reason I say that is, you know, if you the real nugget in this deal for me is Oregon, right? With Oregon bill being aligned so tightly with Nike, you would have believed that wherever they ended up means a lot more than just than the sum of its parts, right. It’s, it makes sense for them to come make sense. Partnership wise, it makes sense brand wise. So where does that leave Notre Dame in all this because if the SEC is surrounded, okay, Notre Dame is completely engulfed, okay, I mean, they’re, they’re completely encircled. So what’s going to what’s it going to mean for them long term? And then, you know, if, if we’re looking at this as a game of Risk, you know, how far can the big 10 reach down into ACC territory All right. And, you know, territory, typically dominated by the SEC team wise. It really puts the ACC schools in an interesting position to negotiate with both conferences. And I’m, I’m kind of counting counting down till the ACC implodes.

Clint Derringer 15:22
Yeah, I think there’s the main difference to my understanding, again, which is, I’m not an expert by any means. But I do try to keep track of this thing. The ACC television deal goes through 2036. And they have granted rights agreement, that would have a huge buyout clause, and also additional rights, that an institution that leaves the ACC, would still be forking over to the conference. So this is very similar, at least the way I kind of internalize it here. Like when there’s a big coach, a high profile, coach, that modes reminds me a lot of when rich Rodriguez went from West Virginia to Michigan, he had a buyout clause in West Virginia, and he was kind of looking at Michigan to try to help him either pay that buyout or, you know, help him win in court. So they didn’t have to pay that buyout, right now that ACC institutions have something like that. So Florida State has been outwardly very verbal, in, in, in the media publicly, and, you know, behind closed doors, apparently, that they’re not happy with the revenue structure of the ACC, and this TV deals not adequate for them through 2036. But they, they’re stuck. They, they know that nobody’s gonna pay, I think $120 million, just to break them free from from this deal that they’ve got with the ACC. So that, to me, is really the next puzzle that that gets solved, either we get closer to 2036. Right. So the TV deal will be renegotiated and get opened back up sometime in a couple of years. That’s when those institutions will feel like they can start making a deal elsewhere to find out if they could jump. So we’re probably two years away from that, whereas just a normal part of the cycle and the negotiating timeline, the ACC will start jumping. But if it wasn’t for this grant of rights deal that really is, seems to be pretty ironclad and keeping the institutions stuck where they are, I think the ACC, very well could have been going through a very similar kind of open market, kind of a flea market phase that the PAC 12 did here. And so the ACC lawyers that put that grant of rights agreement in place right now are the main thread that’s holding the ACC together. And then we will see whether the ACC tries to become a fourth kind of leg on the stool with the SEC big 10. And the big 12, I would say is not an equivalent in onfield success or revenue sharing. But they do have a large number of member institutions, at least to the point that they have to be part of the conversation. But we’ll see three large conferences is kind of tough. I don’t see the ACC splitting up and joining the other three conferences. Either they become the fourth leg of the stool, or I think there’s probably everything opens back up and we start we continue gravitating towards two very large super conferences, anchored in the Big Ten’s original footprint and the SE C’s original footprint. So the battle will be over the ACC institutions and how that splits. And I don’t think that happens until somebody figures out how to get out from under that grant of rights agreement or time just the clock just runs out on that agreement, and then it’s another free for all.

Phil Callihan 19:25
Well, what’s interesting about that, and again, great explanation. Great points. When you look at the estimated ramp up for revenue, okay. So, right now, the estimate for the big 10 full share is just under 60 million per team. By 2029. It’s expected to be almost $95 million per team, right? The payout for SEC teams is estimated to be $105 million by 2029, okay, the ACC estimate 2029 is $55 million again, not chump change. But when you start looking at, you know that number, I can see someone, okay? In these TV offices saying, you know, $100 million is a lot if we want to bust somebody out. But when you look at it long term, I could see the Big 10 in the SEC, and their respective TV partners trying to work something out, right. And again, it’s just, you know, stay tuned, it may not happen this year. But it’s definitely one of the offseason risk moves that we need to see because, and the other interesting thing is, if these revenues continue to climb, the way they’re estimated, I, I think that’s very much speculative at this point, with the way streaming is impacting, I think there’s, there’s going to be only more pressure on, you know, as people continue to cut the cord and leave cable providers. You know, there’s this is a chalkboard that’s going to be erased and rewritten a few times. But the ACC is definitely a point of interest. And, again, those lawyers made a really good deal. They put some really good clauses in it. But when there’s this much money sloshing around, things happen, and it’ll definitely be interesting to see it.

Clint Derringer 21:37
And, again, I I said it correctly, but I think I kind of implied incorrectly, that it’s going to be a couple of years that that deal for the ACC goes to the 2036. It’s a 20 year deal. And if I think the ACC member institutions feel stuck, seeing the huge shares go up for everybody else, and the way that they’re sharing it, across the teams in the conference. If the major you know, if FSU, for example, finds a way to negotiate a buyout and get out of that. What then happens to the remaining to the remaining institution? So that’s what I was kind of implying that it’s going to take a couple years. But yeah, that TV deal doesn’t run out in 2026. It runs out in 2036. And that long term commitment to the current deal, I think, is what makes the ACC schools a little itchy. So and just to be clear, right? Like, so there’s big numbers sloshing around, right.

Phil Callihan 22:48
Apparently, Florida State tried to negotiate or is in the midst of negotiating a $300 million buyout, okay, with all the different penalties and things. So lots of money. And, you know, in a, in a perfect world, right, or a world where this happens, you have to imagine that, if they’re paying 300 million, they already have an idea. A posting, shall we say, or written on a napkin? How much money they’re gonna make. So, again, definitely stay tuned. Definitely interesting times to be a college Football fan. And, you know, if you’re a big fan of tradition, you may not, you know, be super excited about this. But change is coming, and it’s not slowing down. So we just need to stay tuned. And thankfully, I’m really glad that the big 10 is in the position. It’s in rather than your breath.

Clint Derringer 24:04
the the one, at least right now, underlying comforting thing is that the, the games and the member school, the teams aren’t folding, right? The institutions aren’t folding to Football programs still exist, the games are still there to be played. So for fans, it’s going to feel slightly different. Right? It’s, the changes are going to feel somewhat strange over time, but in terms of TV or going to Ann Arbor on a Saturday, you know, the games there. So as long as there’s that, then then I think the riots will, you know, get to be held at bay, but who knows, right? Who knows what it turns into, on a national scale, you know, for for schools were pinched financially. And like you said, I’m glad that our favorite team, our favorite schools member, the Big 10, which happens to be one of the big dogs right now. So that’s fortunate for us. But hope, hopefully, when this all comes to settle, it’s going to be a lot different than what we’re used to for sure. But let’s hope that we can still find what makes games Saturdays great, and the whole Football season in the fall great.

Phil Callihan 25:32
So what I hate about this, is as I hate all things, Notre Dame, as the great Bo Schembechler once said To hell with Notre Dame, is this puts them in an amazing position. Okay, either to stay quasi independent and make a bajillion dollars. Or, I can think of nothing that would put a bigger dagger in the heart of the big 10 than to if they were to end up aligning with sec. And again, just more more to follow, you can definitely see that big numbers are going to be flowing around and we’ll have to see how this ACC deal if it’s able to maintain itself moving forward. So on to more specific Michigan news. Apparently, Coach Harbaugh is going to be sitting out the first four games of the year a suspension with our favorite folks from the NCAA. You know, Clint, I really hate the NCAA sometimes. And, you know, we’ve talked in the past, that Harbaugh part of his nature, you know, early in his Michigan tenure, he kind of enjoyed showing up referees, and I think in various times that came back to bite us. And he got better on that, right. And he also went through a phase where he was calling out the NCAA, and not that they don’t deserve to be called out. But, you know, as I always say, you know, if you jump up in the crosshairs, don’t be surprised if somebody pulls the trigger. And here we have that. Coach, Harbaugh will be suspended for first four games of the season four relatively minor NCAA violations. But apparently, it’s not the violation. It’s the legit dishonesty in that he exhibited during the investigation. So what are your thoughts on are on this situation coming up?

Clint Derringer 27:50
Well, my feelings about the actual content haven’t changed since we talked about it before, when that this was, it’s probably about 18 months ago or so that that this first hit the radar, and we talked about it. Most of this stems from violations that occurred during the during the pandemic, when there were no contact time periods. You know, the Michigan program was in contact with recruits. And in terms of breaking rules, right, you and I think kind of came to, you know, kind of a de facto agreement that neither one of us is happy when when the program is breaking rules, you know, in the grand scheme of things. Again, these were even in the NCAA terms, these were relatively minor infractions. And I wished that they weren’t there. I hate the distraction that they become, but in the grand scheme of things that are much worse. You know, there are many worse things happening in the world of college football. In terms of dishonesty during the investigation, it seems to boil down to whether Harbaugh cooperated fully or recalled any other particular infraction some of this stems around from, you know, receipts related to providing lunch or buying, buying a burger for potentially it’s tough to sort out which detail fits into which part of the whole thing. But the NCAA to me is trying to seize on an opportunity to amidst all of this other chaos, that really is above and beyond their troll trying to or that they that they do impose some sort of consequence when And when they get a high level, a high profile coach in their crosshairs, especially, like you said, one that has, you know, thumbed his nose at the NCAA. In the past, you know, you’re more than once. So, to me, it seems like more of a credibility grab for the NCAA than it is about the seriousness of what Harbaugh and Michigan may have done. But that’s not to excuse, of course, the you know, what actually occurred, it’s just this is now three years old, at a minimum, and the world, the world was such a terrible place three years ago, for us to be re litigating this in, in the court of public opinion, seems, you know, somewhat, you know, somewhat useless to me. Again, there’s a little bit of humor in there, probably, if this was about, you know, Ohio State or some other institution and the NCC or the SEC, maybe, maybe I would sound differently. But this is, to me, this is more of a naked credibility. Boost, that the NCAA is trying to show that, that their paper badge still still mean something, and that that ship has sailed for me that the NCAA seated their authority, in all matters related to Football a long, long time ago. And they need to figure out a way to gracefully exit, you know, to the backstage and figure this out. And there’s got to be some other type of governing body, governing body in the sport of football, because the NCAA is just woefully inadequate to reallyact as a rules enforcement authority in what they’re trying to do with Michigan here.

Phil Callihan 32:05
I always like to use traffic analogies, right? You know, like,hey, and again, it’s always bad to break the rules, right? But it’s one thing if you’re five miles over the speed limit, and 100 miles over the speed limit. This isn’t even a five mile and five mile an hour over the speed limit thing. This is, ooh, your tags are expired. And I mean, it’s so nitpicky, right? And, again, yes, as you said, we’re definitely on the Homer side of the equation here. But, you know, I just I shake my head, this is, you know, this is what you’re going after, this is what you’re doing. And I definitely feel like this is a slap at Harbaugh. You know, Harbaugh has frequently, less frequently in recent years, but has never been shy and criticizing the NCAA on when it falls short, and it lives falling short. You know, it perpetually exists in a falling short situation, as you said, it’s it. It is a failed state. Okay. It’s just horrible. So, you know, it’s unfortunate that this is going to mar the beginning of the season of what we hope to be such an amazing season. But I will tell you, it’s a season where that holds so much promise, but I tell you, you know that Harbaugh is going to use this as motivation. Okay. And, you know, the good news in this is that it’s going to give other coaches on the staff a chance to take a greater role on game day, it’s going to provide fuel for the fire for the team, you know that Harbaugh will be talking about this, you know, they will be talking about this. You know, not to make light of the situation. But, Clint, I think you or I could show up on game day and handle these duties against these four teams. Again, it’s not saying the head coach is not important, but the bulk of the work is done, you know, before the game and these games will not be stern tests. Okay. You know, again, it’ll be a chance for other other coaches and I don’t believe the the final decision has been made on exactly who is going to hold the reins or, you know, Michigan has super qualified people on staff who will will take advantage of this opportunity. Michigan will be fine, and Harbaugh will come back with even more fire in his belly with even more enthusiasm unknown to mankind. And let’s be clear, even more hate and disdain for the NCAA than he are already had. So yeah,

Clint Derringer 35:01
The other part of this that is strange is the the sanction is the four game suspension. Again, this is all kind of leaked information. We don’t know this officially yet. But it’s likely, you know, based on what we’ve seen in the past with similar sanctions that Harbaugh was suspended, like you said, just on game day, which means that he’ll be coaching, you know, the week of preparation where the bulk of the work happens, like you said, and even that, you know, even if, even if we believed in the NCAA as a governing body, or some type of rules authority, that it’s, it’s a, it’s a paper tiger in terms of sanctions. Again, this is something that is only for show to show that you did something. But that really, tangibly has very little impact on as a punishment, you know, which, again, I’m glad that they’re not over punishing a small cry, for sure. But to even have this as an option, because it had been negotiated in the past with other coaches that had been suspended for various reasons, you know, just again, shows to me that this is much more about showing in the in the court of public opinion, that you did something which is just more fresh, it’s more frustrating than nothing to try to make it a song and dance, and using smoke and mirrors to make it look like you did something wrong. And in reality, it’s, you know, it’s nothing.

Phil Callihan 36:53
Now, I don’t think Coach Harbaugh would do this. Okay. But I think it would be hilarious. If Michigan has had, shall we say, celebrity captains for games, you know, people will come out for the coin toss. It would be hilarious. If Michigan and Harbaugh use this as an opportunity to raise the profile. Right? Like, could you imagine if Tom Brady were to come back and be the honorary coach or Charles Woodson, were to come back and be honorary coach? You know, part of me hopes that, okay, I don’t believe they would do this. I don’t think Michigan would do this. But I would i Half of me would love to see Harbaugh tweak the NCAA and turn this into something that raises the profile of the program even higher, right. And I I would not put it past him, I would not put it past him that it has not crossed his mind to do something like that. You know, the other thing that I thought was that, you know, I could see the headline, Harbaugh suspended Harbaugh coaches, right like to Jay for to have Jay Harbaugh be the the interim coach. And again, for no other reason, just to tweak the NCAA. You know, and and now, the idea of a celebrity coach or something like that would would be a distraction that we probably don’t need. But again, it it does, you know, Tom Brady has time on his hands. Charles Woodson has time on his hands. I, like I said it, and in we talked about, you know, the Risk Board of college Football expansion and my mind, like, I would love for that to happen. And and, you know, you don’t want to provoke the NCAA anymore. But I, you know, I, I, I’m sure that he’s thought of something like that. Having, knowing how his mind works, I’m, I’m pretty sure it’s crossed his mind. Probably not the best, probably not the best idea. But you know,

Clint Derringer 39:05
For entertainment value, I definitely hear Yeah, I would imagine that he, his main focus is to minimize the distraction, like you, you kind of alluded to putting his particular battle with, with the NCAA as an institution in front of four games, at all is probably already bad enough. I would imagine he would like this to just get through that phase of the season and try to get back. You know, everybody’s focused on the task at hand. Starting in week five and forward. It’s got to be his main focus now is to just move past it. And I would say that’s, that’s probably the advice that he was getting. When they went into negotiations to try to get this resolved. Let’s let’s get this out for hanging over what should be a very special season? And, and move on here?

Phil Callihan 40:06
Now what I wonder is, you know, when I first heard this, I’m like, well, gives him more time to cut his grass. Right. But in all seriousness, can you imagine what it’s going to be like him? Like for him to be watching these games and not be there? I mean, that’s I, that would be a story. I wonder, I, you know, I would imagine he might sit and watch the game with his dad. But again, I can just like I said, he’s gonna come back fired up. And definitely, you know, you can’t do an eye roll on a podcast, but just understand eye rolling all through the discussions on this. It’s just, you know, you know, even you know, when we go to ball games, you bump into people who worked for the NCAA. And it is, it’s the hardest thing to do to just not just, you gotta be kidding. I mean, you got to be respectful. You got to be nice, but it’s like, okay, all right, then. Some other potential things changing that may impact the fan experience at Michigan Stadium. You know, in addition to the wonderful new scoreboards, which I have to say, when they first announced that they were increasing the size of the scoreboards, you know, I was like, okay, bigger, I hope they have more stats, we finally got to see some of the video of and you know, it was really nice. They were showing clips of the Michigan, Ohio State Games, that was great. So again, going to be all inspiring, can’t wait for that. But another change that’s happening is in the state of Michigan, it appears that alcohol sales will be coming to stadiums near us. No definitive word on Michigan Stadium yet or not. But you know, I always use the analogy of does it mean more money for the university? Yes, no. If it’s yes, then it’s coming. So little bit of cynicism there. But so Clint, what do you think about about those potete that potential change coming?

Clint Derringer 42:17
I think it comes with potential risks and problems, of course. But these are risks and problems that are, you know, handled and mitigated at other events locally, other college venues have been doing this without any major incident, to my knowledge. So it’s, it’s something that can be managed, but it’ll be additional headache and risk to deal with. In terms of fan experience, right? It’s, I don’t know how much different it will be, you know, I don’t think that it’s a, it’s, it’s no secret that, you know, there’s a large portion of the 100 plus 1000 people that are walking in that had been drinking alcohol, you know, for a long time before the game, right. And the filters that are in place to stop additional alcoholic coming in with some of those patrons are those filters are pretty, pretty loose. So people are already, you know, intoxicated, before, during and after the game. So I don’t know how much it’s going to feel different, certainly, to some degree, but I don’t think it’s going to be like a light switch, you know, from off to on, I think it’ll probably be a little bit more visible of a problem, definitely something that you’re going to want to be cognizant of in terms of travel and preparation, but again, this is just a move from, you know, a volume diet, like, you know, from six to seven, or from six to eight. The risks and problems are already there, they probably just get a little bit greater in magnitude, if I had to guess.

Phil Callihan 44:12
So I don’t like this. Okay. When I think back to the negative experiences I’ve had at Michigan Stadium, other stadiums, other pro stadiums 99% of the problems have been because people have been drunk. And I know, it’s, you know, it’s there. You know, it’s always a few bad actors, right. The thing that I enjoyed about Michigan games, is that yes, people there are definitely people who will come in sloshed, right. But usually by halftime, they’ve, you know, the, the edges off a little bit, right. And if they’re, if they’re really there to drink, that’s when they’re going to leave and go back to the tailgate. Okay. So you know, And we know this right that there’s been problems with people coming in drunk. I mean, there’s a reason that they announced on the scoreboard if you’re having problems in your section, right, text this number, and that was before you were continuing to feel like, okay. Even in my seats, okay, I’ve had some really negative. And when I say even in my seats, I mean, I’m really down low. And incident happened probably about, say, around 10 years ago, and, and I say 10 years ago, because I don’t sit in my seats that often, you know, I have the privilege of being in the press box for most games now. But, you know, my seats are in the second row, we have a cop right there. Okay. I had, you know, and I’ve said this told the story before, our seats are in the second row, it’s row B. Okay. So whenever you get new people in the stadium who think they’re in row two, they come down and sit in their seats, right? So we had some drunken idiots come down, you know, ask them to move, they got belligerent they move they were only two rows behind us, okay, because it goes a b One, two, right. And they were assholes. Okay, there’s another way to put it. So much so that the cop who sits in our section, who always looks up, looked up and said, Hey, do I need to do something? And I’m just like, just let it go. Right. And, you know, they, you know, they sobered up and left early. So that was nice. But again, I I know, this is going to happen, if not this year, if not already. You know, it’s it’s an as you said, there, there are filters in place. You know, I think back to, you know, their situations, Lions games were, before they moved over to Ford Field, they used to have sections that were alcohol free, because they had so many problems with people, right, where, you know, people didn’t want to bring their kids. So again, I know, it’s, you know, I know their controls in place. I have no doubt it’s coming. If it’s if it’s not already happening, and great. You know, you know, again, it’ll enhance some people’s game experience. And hopefully, the problems can be minimized. But yeah, I’m, I’m not, not looking forward to it. But, you know, again, it is what it is. And just like with expansion, where, you know, I say changes coming, this is one of the changes that’s coming. And it’s, it’s, it’s kind of pointless to, you know, it’s like, I don’t want to be the guy yelling at kids to get off my lawn. But that’s what I feel like right here.

Clint Derringer 47:41
Yeah. I wonder if the, in terms of fan experience, if there’s more, you know, just more more congestion, you know, if there are people that normally never went to the concession stands on the concourse, you know, maybe that increased traffic feels a little bit different would be another negative. But we’ll see. I think it’s it there, there is a risk that it it has a negative effect on the overall experience. But that that risk wasn’t zero before. So let’s hope that it comes with with enough management and just that, that it doesn’t become, you know, untenable, and that whatever the benefits are for the athletic department. Certainly hope they’re worth it, you know, because the, it is going to create more frequency or greater magnitude of problems. So we’ll see. Hopefully, they can keep it contained. Another story impacting big 10 Football, the northwestern hazing situation. And

Phil Callihan 48:49
I have to say, I’m surprised and I’m not surprised, okay. Northwestern has had such a sterling reputation of, if not success on the field, success off the field, right, high academics. You know, I always used to joke that the Big 10 keeps Northwestern in the conference to raise the grade point of, you know, Nebraska and Rutgers and other places. But it’s not a joke, right. And again, this is a whole nother. So you’re going to fire the coach, I believe all the coaches in place all the other coaches, and you kind of roll your eyes like wait a minute, wait a minute. Okay. So I understand that the head coach is responsible, right? It’s kind of like the captain of a ship. And yet, so they do an investigation. And, you know, in typical, very, you know, it wasn’t NCAA, right, but kind of like the NCAA. Well, bad stuff happened. So we’re going to spend, we’re going to say suspends you in the middle of the summer, right? For two weeks. And you look and go, I mean, on the outside, I go, well, it couldn’t have been that bad because that kind of suspension really isn’t a suspension, right? And then some more things come out some more media attention. And then, you know, they, they fire him. Northwestern comes out of this just looking bad, right? Like bad in the investigation bad in the way they do. They handled it bad in the reaction. And I think it’s only gonna get worse. Right. I mean, lawsuits are coming, lawsuits are already in place. And it, it’s just, it again, I just I just shake my head at the whole things. And listen, I don’t want to minimize hazing. At All right. But what kind of investigation did you do? And then oh, well, now that people are paying attention, it’s just it’s just a really puzzling situation for me.

Clint Derringer 51:04
Yeah, I think the at the top line, the takeaway is that nobody, no program, no person, no coach, no administrator is immune to this to having this as a problem, you know, we learned this, you know, the very hard way personally, right, that our program had these same, you know, moral shortcomings and lack of fortitude to actually correct the problems in a reasonable time and people got hurt. And this is a totally different scenario, in terms of the specifics with hazing, and, and what you’re doing to incoming freshmen, or what you’re doing to people, players that are, you know, performing or not performing on the field. But outside of the specifics, in terms of the grit, you know, the the macro level, it’s the same problem, where it’s tolerated. And people look the other way, to the point that it’s enabled and becomes a part of your programs culture. And that is an issue. The cover up certainly is as bad as the crime in these cases, for sure. And I think, what you’re talking about with Northwestern as the institution, and they hire a third party firm to do an investigation, and then their decision is a two week suspension in July. For Pat Fitzgerald what that investigation found was enough plausible deniability that they thought they could get away with that, that even if someone were to read the report of the specifics of what was happening with these hazing incidents, and some of the abuse, that at least they could say, you know, the head coach was, should have known and should have put a stop to it and didn’t. So we punished him for that. And hopefully, this will change. But two week suspension in the middle of July, before campaign even started, makes me wonder whether this practice would have even changed, you know, I don’t even know, you know, if this if that were allowed to have been stayed in place, you know, if this didn’t get out, and become a bigger media story to the point that more serious action was taken, whether it was a longer suspension or with firing, Fitzgerald was the right thing. I think that’s, it’s correct, personally, but, you know, two weeks was definitely not enough. Right. So that is the part of it that still kind of eats at me is that the path that they chose, as an institution, I wonder if it would have even changed, you know, now with, you know, removal of the head coach, who seemed like, you know, one of the longest tenured, I think only Kirk ferentz, had a longer tenure at Iowa than Pat Fitzgerald, at Northwestern, right, this is a very serious step and to just been sent, I do have some confidence that there will be changes in that this won’t be you know, part of the program culture anymore, but that that’s the part still kind of will bother me continually is that was a two week suspension. Just another example of this being enabled and the same culture, the same culture Well, problems in this hazy may have changed shape slightly, but probably would have continued into the 2023 season. And that is, that’s the part of it that’s just makes me shake my head the most.

Phil Callihan 55:15
So to that again. So, it might have been different for me if it wasn’t somebody like Pat Fitzgerald, right? Who was the poster guy for Northwestern Football? Played their coach there. Right? So you question how long was this going on? And oh, we did an investigation. And what we found was so bad. We’re gonna give you a two week suspension. I mean, a two week vacation, right? Slash suspension. And that’s, that’s my, you know, sarcasm there. Right. But like you said, so this was going on. Okay. And let’s be clear. Something happened, okay. He knew about it. Either. He knew about it when he was coaching. Or he knew about it when he was playing, or he started it. I mean, again, let’s let’s, let’s step back here, right? This isn’t somebody, you know, this isn’t somebody who just got hired from had no history with the institution. Right. Okay. So what we found out was so bad, we’re going to do a two week suspension, which is a joke, right? And like you said, it may have continued going on. And then it was, well, what we found was so bad. We need to fire the head coach. Oh, yeah. And the position coaches, who you and I both know, spend the bulk of the time with the players, right. Who had to be aware of this? Or if they weren’t aware of it were morons, or looked, you know, took a blind eye to it? They’re fine. Right? I again, I just I, yeah. Northwestern just, you know, and I understand it’s the middle of the summer, and who you’re gonna get to coach and all that. And maybe, you know, in the offseason, they’re going to clean house again, I my guess is that’s probably going to happen, right? I can’t see this staff continuing to stay intact moving forward. But it’s just, again, we talked about the clown show, with the NCAA, Northwestern, you know, has their own clown show going on. And, unfortunately, it appears that, as you said, it became enough of the culture that people were definitely impacted, definitely hurt. And, again, this is Northwestern, right, supposed to be, you know, as clear as the driven snow. And, you know, again, you know, and, Clint, we’ve talked about this, you know, we’ve talked about, you know, the the bad situation at Penn State, the bad situation with at Michigan State with with things being overlooked, you know, the the Nasr situation. And again, things that happen at Michigan that were bad, okay, we’re not ignoring it. And, and I remember when, you know, those three things happened, I said, Well, you know, there’s no way it’s only the big 10. And I’m not saying it to give the big 10 of pass, I’m saying how prevalent is this? Okay, and how much? How much worse? Is it? How many bad things have are happening or have happened that we haven’t heard about? And that’s kind of what I feel about this is that I think, you know, Northwestern was more than ready just to, you know, give a minor slap on the hand and move on. And, again, not a good look.

Clint Derringer 58:48
Yeah, I agree.

Phil Callihan 58:49
So all right. Well, again, it’s nice to kind of clear the decks on this so we can start talking about Michigan Football. You know, the team is started camp, we’re going to have much better things and much more exciting things on the field to talk about soon. So Clint, do you have any final words for today?

Clint Derringer 59:13
Now it’s time to start putting together the game by game preview. I know, our big preseason extravaganza, typically in August is we kind of talked about each game on the schedule, what we think is going to happen, what we think from the whole season narrative, what it’s going to turn into, I think that’s going to be an exciting conversation, obviously, with the expectations we have for this season. And, you know, looking forward to starting to, you know, finish some of the work that was started here with kind of looking at the analytics, what the specific matchups are. You know, how things are going to play out with Harbaugh suspension early in the season and Michigan’s kind of soft nonconference schedule again. So yeah, it’s going to be It’s nice to start digging back into Football specific content and and more numbers and to be able to talk about that here in a few weeks. Absolutely. I’m so looking forward to talking about projecting the actual season we’ve, again, it’s great to have offseason, offseason things to talk about but really excited for this upcoming season.

Michigan Football Podcast — Big Ten From Sea to Shining Sea 7-5-23

Phil and Clint discuss changes ahead for Big Ten Football. Topics include Big Ten expansion, division re-alignment, rule changes, changes we’d make if we were football czars, and the current wild west state of NIL.

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Podcast Transcript

Phil Callihan 0:00
Today we’re going to talk about some of the big changes that will be impacting college Football this season. And next season. So Clint, first thing is up. The NCAA has changed rules to impact when the clock runs, you know, after first downs, so how do you feel about that as a fan, and as somebody who spends a lot of time thinking about strategy and the nature of the game?

Clint Derringer 0:47
Yeah, there’s two pieces, I would say to this one, both of which I don’t particularly like, the first, the first thing is that, I think it makes it less likely that you get, you know, exciting comeback drives, at the end of games, I think, just plain and simple, because the clock will continue running, it’ll be harder to do, which means it’ll happen less frequently. And I think that that’s bad. As you know, it’s just a fan watching two random teams that I don’t have any emotional investment in that last opportunity for something exciting at the end of the game. So that’s one particular bad thing, that the kind of the, below the surface, part that I don’t like is that, at least superficially, this is to shorten the length of the game, right, the games are starting to really stretch, you know, three, three and a half, four hours long. Especially for fans in the seats, or other, you know, trying to compete with shorter attention spans in this the attention economy, there’s a movement to kind of shorten the length of these sporting events, we’ve seen, you know, big changes, obviously, with, with baseball with Major League Baseball, instituting a pitch clock, either to positive results. So to do that, on the surface, I think is is fine to try to shorten the length of the event, the length of the broadcast, or the length of the event for the people in the stands. But to do it by changing the game. Rather than taking away the ridiculous amount of commercial breaks, or the number of commercial breaks. During a game, I know you and I for sitting, sitting there watching a Michigan game. And there’s a touchdown Extra Point, they go to a commercial guy with the red hat comes out on the field, they come back kickoff happens, guy with the red hat comes out after the kickoff, it drives, it drives me crazy when they sandwich their you know, the kickoff between commercial breaks. And that’s obviously what’s stretching these events in real time. The amount of play from whistle, the whistle has been the same for decades, right? The reason that it’s stretching is because of all of the other, you know, advertising and other content that’s being stuffed into, into the game. So that’s really the problem. And removing that, obviously, wood wood threatened some revenue for TV interests. So that’s really what they’re covering up. So to say that you want to shorten the length of the event, you should attack the part that is not not part of the actual gameplay, in my opinion. So I’m not a big fan. For those two reasons.

Phil Callihan 3:38
Clint, you make a great point. We have been going to games for a long time. And the in stadium experience is incredibly negatively impacted by those stoppages in play. And I remember, you know, I was sitting in the seats years ago, when the Red Hat thing started. And, you know, one of the people sitting with me brought like their kid, and they’re like, Who’s the person in the Red Hat? Why does everybody boom, and I’m like, well, you’re gonna learn, you’re gonna learn, right? And, you know, my problem with it is, okay, they’re dressing this up as well. We need to shorten these games because we’re adding more games and we need to take gameplay away or game time away from athletes and hopefully this will lower injuries and lower the wear and tear on them. And listen, like you said, this is all about impacting the length of the broadcast, not the you know, the appeal to higher angels, right. So, the issue that I have is, like you said, okay, and yes, you know, the clock will stop The final two minutes of each half, but you’re going to be sprinting toward that two minutes now, right? The game is going to fly. And I think what you’re going to see, you know, another impact of this is, since the clock is not going to stop, I think you’re going to see teams, calling plays quicker. Okay? And that’s great, right? More action is good. But again, like you said, nobody’s going to complain about more Football, everyone complains about when you’re sitting in the stadium, and you have the stoppages for, for these ads to run. And, you know, Clint, you mentioned the changes in baseball. You know, I love baseball, you know, big fan, I was seriously concerned how it was going to impact games, right, with these new rules on the baseball side, and gotta say, sitting in the stadium, it actually made the game a lot more enjoyable, because they limited the time between innings. So the game actually just pops, right, it’s a lot more like watching, you know, a lower level baseball game where you didn’t have time for all these ads, and all this, all this nonsense. So it’ll be interesting to see how this impacts the product and the field, but I don’t like it. Okay. And, you know, the other thing that’s weird is, okay, so the rule change was approved. And it’ll be this year, you know, this isn’t something for 24, this is for the 23 season, will allow the clock to run after first downs and all division except Division three. So that’s just bizarre, okay. Because, you know, some of the lower divisions have the extended playoffs where you have all the extra games played. So I think it’s a bizarre thing. And again, I think that it’s going to impact the game. You know, I wonder how it’s going to impact the amount of running place that teams call and not not because the passing play is going to, you know, not because it’s not going to stop o’clock, but it’s just, I wonder if you’re going to see multiple plays called at once so that, you know, you’re not losing that time of having the play run in and guys running around. So it’s gonna be interesting to see. And again, I’m not, I’m not a fan. You know, you know, another rule that they’re bringing in is that they’re not going to allow teams to call multiple timeouts. So, you know, I think primarily, that’s going to impact, you know, the icing, the kicker thing. And then also, they’re changing the way penalties are called on the last play of a quarter where, instead of getting on untimed, down, it will just be rolled over to to the next one. So in the first and third quarter, it’ll just roll over to the second or the fourth quarter. So again, it’s, you know, they’re saying this is going to shorten the game, 70 minutes, it’s going to take eight plays away. But you know, and they’ll say, it’s not about shortening the game time, it’s more about keeping the game moving, while reducing the number of plays. And, again, it’s like, you know, that’s a contradiction, right? We, you know, we want more plays, we, you know, so it’s just, it’s just bizarre. I also wonder what extra ads we’re gonna see on screen while this is happening.

Clint Derringer 8:29
Yeah, I agree that that’s been finding ways to increase revenue on screen, while the while the game is still going has been has been a movement for the last, you know, 10 years or so. Once the technology existed to kind of superimpose all the images onto the field, it’s only going to increase but it’s a small thing. They said seven or eight minutes real time minutes, and seven or eight plays per game is what the benefit of that, you know, to have seven or eight minutes kind of shortened. Is is miniscule, I think, except that you’re taking it away from from some of the more high leverage situations. At the end of the game, like I said, so. We know we’ve seen obviously, many, many Football games boiled down to a handful of plays and high leverage situations. So now that’s where you’re reducing the number of plays. So I think just as a as a fan, again, when I’m when I’m watching a game that is not that I’m not emotionally invested in one of the teams. I don’t think it makes a lot of sense to take away those high leverage plays when you know, especially when you have a close game, I think trying to come from behind and getting the benefit of those. So it’s, it’s fine. It’s not a it’s not the end of the world, but I think it’s misapplied. And really for If they wanted to make an impact that was really tangible, I think reducing the real time of the the overall event, you could really make some gains and improve the sport and improve the product on the field and improve the experience for people at home. And for people in the stadium at the same time, if they could find a way to reduce the overall event time as somebody who’s got three younger kids, you know, my oldest is only nine, you know, and we haven’t been to a game together at the stadium. Because my youngest just turned six. And there’s, there’s no way that I can keep that I can keep all three of them engaged for for four hours, you know, crammed in, like, like sardines at the big house. Right? My oldest would certainly be capable, but my youngest wouldn’t. So either start splitting them up and bringing them one at a time or whatever. But you’re we’re reducing the opportunities for families like mine and other people right to to be able to try to actually enjoy the experience. And we’ve come down Arbor and enjoy the game day atmosphere, and, you know, just pass on buying tickets. So this is something that is impacting people when they’re deciding how to consume the games. So I think it’ll get addressed at some point. But hopefully, it’s it’s a more positive and impactful decision than than what we’re talking about. Not.

Phil Callihan 11:32
We bemoan how the in stadium experience has changed. And despite, you know, big scoreboards, and rock music, and all kinds of things, and I know, I sound like a cranky old man yelling at kids to get off my lawn. But the point is that, how are you going to replenish your next generation of fans, if you don’t make the in stadium experience better? And I realized that a lot of those things that I just said, I don’t really care about, like the DJ, and the big screens and everything is a opportunity or is a shot at appealing to to the next generation. But primarily, it’s gotta be about the game. Okay, you can add all the bells and whistles. And, you know, I, you know, speaking of baseball, again, you know, if I think about Comerica Park down in Detroit, and it’s like, Oh, they got a Ferris wheel? That’s great. Great, not really great, right? I mean, it’s, it’s great that, you know, and, you know, they have the merry go round. But ideally, it’s a, it’s a plus, it’s not the attractor, right? And the game has to be the thing that that attracts people. And I think specially in college Football, you know, you have limited touchpoints, right, you have limited home games. And if they’re going to continue to fill that large stadium, at some point, as, as later generate, or the previous generation start to decide not to go to games or not be able to go to games. It’s how you’re going to attract and engage younger, younger people, even, you know, even the students, like, when I was a student at Michigan, one of the big things I was excited about graduating was having opportunity to get season tickets, right. And you just wonder if that in stadium experience as creating the same kind of lifelong ties, that people are going to continue to want to fill that stadium. And you know, Clint, you mentioned your kids, right. So, you know, I’m fairly certain they have been raised around Michigan Football, you know, you talk about how you watch games with your kids and discuss it. So on one hand, you know, they have to be kind of chomping at the bit to go to a game. But on the other hand, you also know you don’t want it to be a negative experience. So how do you balance that out? And I think more Football is the answer, not less Football. And I don’t I see this as kind of just chewing at the edges of that of that problem.

Clint Derringer 14:12
The amount of downtime previously in previous generations of Football was more than adequately filled with, you know, with the marching band and a couple other, you know, introductions, people on the field now that there’s so much downtime between stoppages in play. That’s why they’ve had to increase the different channels of content that they’re shoving into this and now, it’s right now it’s growing instead of shrinking. It’s some point. The innovation is going to be targeted how to reduce the overall time of the event rather than right now. They’re, they’re coming up with ideas, to put on the video boards and to try to keep people engaged During the downtime, but at some point, they’re going to try to shift the creative thinking to eliminate that downtime altogether. That’s, that will, we’ll be able to tell, I think when, when that shift in thinking has happened, and it might, it might come at the expense of the TV, or you know, the consumer at home, whether it’s streaming, or television or whatever, right, because a lot of that advertising revenue probably does get shoved onto the screen, like we’ve seen in browsers and pop ups, and click ads, and all that stuff. So other sports are finding ways to do it, for sure. I think professional golf does the split screen where you can still see what’s happening on the left side of the screen, and there’s an ad on the right side of the screen. These are the types of things that are going to start to happen when when the people in power really want to reduce the event time, and it’s going to happen, because there’s going to be like you said, an entire generation of people who just choose not to go to the stadiums, you know, these the 100,000 seat stadiums, are really a sad affair, when you know, they’re half empty, or even more than half empty. You know, we’ve seen that that impact was felt, you know, all over the country in 2020. So, this, this is going to happen at some point. And we’ll see what type of solutions come out of it.

Phil Callihan 16:26
Speaking of the new stadium boards are nearing completion, they’re going to be in for the next season at Michigan Stadium. I drive by every couple of days, and they’re definitely they’re definitely in. So again, looking forward to that. But again, you know, when you know, so Clint, you and I have gone to Football games long enough to remember when there was just a old school scoreboard that had the score and pretty much the down, right. And we talked about this, I always say that there’s there’s basically three different games happening at the same time, or three different takes, right? There’s the game you see on television, or listen to on the radio, right? Kind of the media perspective, the media presentation, there’s the game you see as a fan from wherever you’re sitting in the stadium. And then there’s, the game is called on the field, right? What the players and coaches see. And what I really loved about when they first put the video scoreboards in is, as somebody who was sitting in the stands, it was great to be able to see a replay of something that happened away from you, or where somebody stood up, or, you know, you just didn’t have a good view of right. And, you know, I loved you know, one of the first thing is they’d run stats all the time. And I’m like, Oh, this is great, right. So, you know, I always tell the story. When I was in college, there was the mugging of Desmond Howard, in the endzone against Michigan State. I was in that endzone. And everybody stood up, and, you know, started, you know, cheering and everything. And then there was a great tumult. And I didn’t know what happened. Okay, till we left the game and saw it on television. You know, all I remember is the ball in the air, it hits his hands looks like he catches it, and then, you know, hands in the air blocking your view. Now, obviously, you know, Michigan lost, but again, it really was baffling to not, you know, be able to know everything that happened. So I you know, even as somebody who really watches the game and cares about the game, I was really excited for the for the scoreboards, but there’s a certain point where again, it’s just kind of an add on, it’s not a an attractor. So it’ll be interesting to see how they leverage these new video boards that are that are even bigger and better.

Clint Derringer 18:58
Yeah, it’s, it was a giant leap going from the old analog, you know, light, you know, light bulb scoreboard. That was there even when I was in college, to to the video boards because of exactly what you said, just being able to see the replays for everybody. And then that immediately became pretty, pretty political because you show you show a replay, right that the fans are disappointed with the call on the field, right? They’re even more likely than to kind of rain down on the officials and kind of impact to the process with the officiating. So you know, the scoreboard operator in which replays to show and how to show you know, is kind of interesting to watch sometimes when there’s a close call you know, if the home team is impacted or not impacted, or helped or hurt, right, it’s it’s interesting to see what which angles you see on the replay because you know, they have cameras all over the place, but that that scoreboard update right now is something that is is interesting to me in a small sense because it had to be done just because technology evolves so quickly with with with these digital screen technology is to the point to where it seems like the university operations. You know, we’re having a hard time maintaining the old scoreboards just because you know the parts and they’re fighting obsolescence. So you have a bunch of obsolete items that you can no longer get your hands on, and you can’t maintain, you know, what’s going on. And now the things going to start breaking down and really impacting everybody. So wow, I think the upgrade makes a lot of sense. I think it’s been, it’s about 10 years or so I think, which is pretty standard for how long it takes for this technology evolve. And all of a sudden, you need to start moving on to the next to the next version of these, these screens. So it then get gets mixed a little bit with the the arms race to have the biggest right, the fanciest the show us the most bells and whistles and you know, a lot of monkey see monkey do with what other teams have done both college and pro and other stadiums. So all of that kind of wraps into this thing. You had to you had to make an upgrade. So they take the opportunity for the construction and in probably tact a little bit more into it to try to get to closer to the state of the art or to compete with with other stadiums around around the area.

Phil Callihan 21:44
Well, for sure, and it’ll be interesting, because like I said, we talked about that, there are some good things that come with it. And you know, I will have to see how it gets leveraged. And, and moving forward. So

Clint Derringer 22:00
One of the big things that changed, you mentioned the stats, right? And that’s one thing, creating that extra space where the team stats are there, right? So they show Michigan’s passing, rushing, right, first downs, all of those type of what you get on the team overview on the stat page in the box score, that was a big deal, I think it’d be interesting to see if they start to look more into any of the analytics and provide a deeper detail. Not right away. But you know, if they create the capacity to, to kind of look at that stuff, some efficiency numbers, or anything that is more, a little bit more advanced in terms of statistics, and not just raw yards and first downs and whatever else. So it’s one particular thing that maybe you and I would certainly notice immediately if they go into some of the more advanced metrics.

Phil Callihan 22:54
And I would love to see that. Again, we’ll have to see. You know, it seems to me that there’s not a, there’s not a lot of forward leaning to do things that are a typical. So I’m hoping that they do look at the scoreboard as a way to do those kinds of things, right. Like you said, I’d love to see, you know, projections, I’d love to see percentages, I’d love to see all kinds of really cool things that, you know, when I’m watching a game in the press box, I have stats, okay, and, you know, some of the resources we use that if I was sitting, if I was a person who cared about that, oh, I wouldn’t be losing that when I’m in the stadium. And I wouldn’t have to be on my phone to get it, that I could just look up and go, oh, like more of a heads up display for the game. Right? Here’s what’s happening. And I wouldn’t even see I wouldn’t even mind seeing more running. Both see not commentary, but, you know, opportunity of watching other games, you know, seeing results of important games being piped in alongside, right, especially as we get later in the season and, and things start to matter more. So, again, I think there’s lots of opportunities for innovation. I’m hoping that’s what this is used for. And not just bigger, right? Because, you know, there is the oh, well now we’re just gonna make it bigger. Well, that’s more high, you know, more high definition. Well, listen, I love high definition. But you have all this real estate and you know, again, to mention the Tigers again, right. When you go to Comerica Park, when they built that, you know, the built the stadium. They’re like all the Tigers are going to have one of the biggest scoreboards in the major leagues. And really, a lot of it is pretty static and a lot of it is used for ads, right? It’s not, you know, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s great. It’s good, but it’s not, you know, 100 represent for the fan experience. There’s a lot of a lot of other masters who are being served there. So it’ll be interesting to see. You know, I think, you know, one of the cool things I like on the scoreboard that they do before games is they have, you know, you can tweet pictures with a hashtag, and they’ll put pictures of fans. I like that, you know, that’s, that’s a way to engage people. Right. So there there are there are opportunities for innovation, and hopefully they will move toward that.

Clint Derringer 25:31
Yeah, I agree.

Phil Callihan 25:32
So, talked about changes coming up for this season. For 2024 and 2025. We have some big changes coming. You know, we have some new members joining the big 10, which is going to going to impact things quite a bit. We have USC and UCLA joining the mix. And one of the things that was announced is that the big 10 will be collapsing the divisions. So we will have one big monster conference. And as part of that, there will be protected matchups so that there are certain games that teams will be guaranteed to play. For Michigan, that’ll be Michigan and Michigan State and Michigan, Ohio State.

Clint Derringer 26:28
I think the conference did well, to first of all, not continue with geographic divisions, just because that’s the way that we had done it, right. So trying to shoehorn USC and UCLA into the West and East Division. It pretty could have been done pretty simply, right. And I think that it would have caused enough problems. But that kind of merged with another movement around all of college Football, where many of the conferences are are trying to get away from division winners playing for the championship game. Instead, they want to see the two best teams play a championship game, as determined by the standings. So there’s still, we knew there was never they were never going to eliminate the championship game, because one more high level Football game in December is such a revenue maker. So the division is going away was never going to eliminate the championship game. Other conferences have already done this. You know, I’m thinking of the big 12, in particular, but it’s going it’s coming everywhere. So I think that it was smart, to kind of take that momentum, for removing divisions and to rethink exactly what this should look like with 16 teams and adding to West Coast teams. So it made a lot of sense. I’m glad that they got out of the old way of thinking the way that we were currently doing it. And at least rethought about it in a fresh sense. And then I thought that they were also pretty creative. That they didn’t just take every team and say, okay, each team has, you know, one protected rivalry or two protected rivals, some of the models that have been kicked around or that were used in the past, where we kind of forced rivalries that didn’t make a lot of sense. And I think they did well, to avoid that trap. You know, it was it was really interesting to me that, you know, Penn State doesn’t have a protected rivalry, which is, you know, something to kind of think about or, you know, I wonder, we don’t know exactly how that happens, or what the impact of that is. But the benefit of all of that creative thinking, and being able to kind of get outside the box with the way that they scheduled and made these protected rivalries is that you will play, you know, hypothetically, a player that’s at a school for four years will get to visit every venue in the big 10. Right. And, again, they’re kind of spinning it from the player experience. But I think a lot of that comes from the fan experience or from other revenue drivers. But regardless, it’s a huge improvement that every team will see the rest of the conference in a short time span, which has been probably the biggest problem since the big 10 has expanded in my lifetime, is that there was such long downtime between seeing another team that’s within your conference, you know. I remember it. I remember causing problems in the 90s and early 2000s when you’d have two teams that were undefeated that never ended They’re playing each other. And that was okay, let’s get a conference game and put that on top so that those two teams would play each other. You know, but you never know which the divisions never made sense. And now, I think it’s, it’s a big improvement to say, no matter what you’re gonna have a home in a way with every team within a four year cycle. And that is, that’s the biggest thing that I would applaud from, from the whole exercise that they did a lot of creative things to end up at that particular outcome. And that was the right way to do it.

Phil Callihan 30:34
So when I first looked at it, I noticed the same thing you did. I’m like, where’s Penn State in this? Like, I kept thinking there was another screen of protected matchups. So I do think that’s interesting. I also think that this acknowledges that Michigan is the cream of the crop of the big 10. Because, of course, we’re the only school that has two protected matchups. A little bit of snark there. As you said, the divisions in the big 10 have been mishandled from day one, right. And you were always trying to jam teams to make a get a competitive balance. And let’s be honest, the West has been kind of an also ran. So when we first started hearing about UCLA and USC joining, I just assumed they were gonna get thrown in the West, because you know, they’re in the West. And that would have, you know, I think, balanced power wise, but I can imagine that the schools in the West division would not have been a big fan of all that extra travel going back and forth there. So. So I really liked what you said about everybody having to travel to all the schools. I think I Okay, I think this is a temporary measure. Okay. I think this is what we’re going to do for 24 and 25. We’re going to see how it plays out. I I can’t see this being the long term solution. Okay. And I think back and again, I’m gonna use a baseball analogy. So before baseball had divisions, okay, you had the American League in the National League. And if you were one of the top two or three teams, great, if you were one of the also anybody else, you really, you had to watch the game because you loved it, but there really wasn’t any, you didn’t have any stake in the games, because your team was so far out, right. And they split up the divisions to give you something to play for. So I feel as if that, again, this is a temporary solution, because I don’t think the big 10 is done expanding, that’s another, you know, put a pin in that. Okay. And, you know, I’m gonna stake my claim here. When we get done adding teams, I want to see a traditional big 10 division and a new big 10 division, I would love to see that. Okay, if I had my, you know, I’m the emperor of sports. That’s what I would love to see. And, and I think we’re going to end up in some kind of division mix again, at some point, just because you can have, you know, Michigan, Penn State and Ohio State fighting for everything, and possibly, you know, one of the one of the new school from California. I just, I think you got to, you got to create a little artificial sizzle there. So I think, again, we’re this is a, this is a rough draft of what we’re gonna see, you know, I’m interesting, interested in what 26 is going to look like.

Clint Derringer 33:46
Yeah, I think a lot of that is outside of the control even of the big 10 institutions, right. So I think the big 10 Now is the first the first conference that truly touches, you know, coast to coast. So from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean. So

Phil Callihan 34:01
Can I have the marketing tag from sea to shining sea?

Clint Derringer 34:05
Exactly. So the that is now again, just like when the big 10 created the big 10 network, and the rest of the conferences followed suit. That’s been, I think, the goal of many of the conferences through all of the realignment, you know, the, the SEC really kind of shattered or really kicked off this new wave of realignment when Texas and Oklahoma moved from the big 12 into the into the SEC. So that drove a lot of this conversation. But really what’s driving this now is less about certainly less about geography than it is about creating big time matchups. So there were in the last 10 years, there were movements to try to create these off site or neutral site games that brought big power teams from different conferences together. And there was, you know, moderate success, there’s but but the the opportunity for those non conference games, you know only three or four on the schedule, depending on where you play, you know, of course, the SEC still only plays eight conference games somehow. But that’s a different a whole different topic. But that’s a limited amount of opportunity when you’re trying to create these Titanic matchups between big programs, right? Again, that is what’s driving this is to try to get larger conferences, and then create schedules that rotate so that you are getting some regular diet of the best teams playing the best teams. So I agree with you that this is temporary. I don’t know. I don’t know how, you know, whether it’s divisions or some other type of realignment. But the next big shift is the continued conference realignment, I think with seeing what the big 12 Does, they’ve added new schools after they lost Texas and Oklahoma. Certainly not, they’re not the same. They’re not the same conference that they were with, with Texas and Oklahoma. So adding, you know, Cincinnati, and some of the other Mid American, or, you know, middle of the country teams, to the big 12 Geographically, is is okay, just to make sure that you have the right number to fill out your schedule. But in terms of adding power, in terms of content creation, and creating these large games, there are still some pretty big dominoes to fall in the next couple of years with the other conferences, and I think many people still are assuming, or kind of have their eye on the big 10. And the SEC right now continuing to kind of eat up these other conferences, so all of the all of the most powerful Football programs, looking to join one of those two and trying to stay out of the you know, that second tier, and I think we’ve we’ve now moved out of the power five, and group of five era, right. And it’s, it’s, we’re now moving rapidly towards the power to, and the group of, you know, the rest of the group of eight conferences, just in terms of historical power and revenue sharing, that’s going to happen in these other conferences. So the big 10 made their big move here with the West Coast teams, I would think that some of the other conferences will be the next to act. And then there’ll be some type of, of kind of counter move from both the big 10 and the SEC, but it does feel like we’re moving towards two really large super conferences.

Phil Callihan 37:49
Absolutely. And want to put in my plug here. One of the things I am genuinely excited about with UCLA joining the big 10 is an opportunity to go to a Michigan game at the Rose Bowl. And with the way that the bowl games have been moved around, you know, it used to be the end of the year carrot that hopefully Michigan would make the Rose Bowl, so you could go and go to California and see a game. And while the game may not matter as much as a playoff game or a national championship game, the experience of seeing a game at the Rose Bowl is one that should not be missed. And definitely one of the things that I am looking forward to as as the schedules come out and the projections because it is it is the way Football was intended. It is definitely an experience to be had. So I’m definitely looking forward to that.

Clint Derringer 38:54
Yeah, I think that it is a major benefit now increased opportunity. I mean, anybody you know, could have gone to see a game at the Rose Bowl, but to see, you know, to be able to go and visit and see Michigan there to play in that venue, which hasn’t happened for at least was a 2005. Rose Bowl, maybe the two, six was bowl.

Phil Callihan 39:15
I was at the game Michigan in Texas. Yeah. And last time that we were there, you know, and back then, you know, we were going to the Rose Bowl fairly regularly. And I remember casually going to that game not thinking that it would be 18 years. So excited about that. So Clint, there was some other you know, we’ve talked a lot about what’s happening in the big 10. You know, we kind of have a low in the season before things start gearing up. If there were changes you could make, you know, I talked about you know, I have a goal someday of there being traditional big 10 kind conference or division and a new new school big 10 conference? What kind of changes? You know, if you were emperor of sports? What kind of things would you like to see change to, you know, either improve your experience or you think things you have a preference for or that could improve the game overall?

Clint Derringer 40:22
Well, the really the huge seismic change that I would look at is driven by kind of what I mentioned earlier today, in that if I’m watching a game, regardless of who’s involved, I hope that there’s something that makes it interesting. Now, this is kind of the challenge of the old bowl system is trying to find two teams to play against each other to have some kind of something that’s going to make it interesting to watch most of the people I think that watch all of the 30 or so, you know, 30 Something bowl games in December in January, they’re gonna watch it no matter what, because they’re Football junkies. But from from just an interest standpoint, I think playoff expansion helps with making interest. Okay, so I think most of the critics have playoff expansion. Or that it’s, it gives the best teams, the historical powerhouse teams, kind of a mulligan, so whereas, you know, if Alabama, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Michigan, you know, with the team Georgia now, right, the powerhouse teams that have been there multiple times. If they slip up, then you’ve lowered the stakes of the regular season games, you’ve taken importance away from regular season games. And I don’t discount that, right. That’s true, I think inaccurate. However, once you don’t, it doesn’t just disappear into thin air, right? You’ve taken that regular season importance from that one high stakes game like the Michigan Ohio State game, for example. And you’ve now spread it over a bunch of other games where teams that have two or three losses are really playing each other and trying to get into the playoffs. So I think making games more interesting across the board is what would drive anything that I changed. So I think I believe that there’s going to be continued playoff expansion, I don’t think it’s done at 12, I think it’ll probably get to 16. Once there’s a natural alignment with conferences, I think conference realignment happens first, and then the playoff expands to 16. So that’s just kind of a prediction, where I would really, if I were the emperor of sport, I would create a relegation system like soccer, that keeps the games interesting, where you have the one and two win teams playing against each other. So if Rutgers wants to stay in the big 10, then they’ve got to beat you know, Michigan State in the last week of the season. And that that’s a game that I’m going to watch for sure. All right, I’m going to watch for the rivalry tie ends, and I’m going to watch for teams that are playing, not to get relegated up or down. So again, this would require some some type of conference realignment. In my mind, it was always kind of like, if we just took the Midwest as an example, geographically, you had the big 10 tier of teams, and then you had like the Mac tier of teams, and that Rutgers would be playing to stay out of the Mac, and then your Mac champion gets to move into the big 10. And there’s a financial and revenue sharing reward there for the teams that have really made it work at the Mid American level. So again, there’s a lot of a lot of what ifs and things that would have to happen. But just like playoff expansion kind of spreads out the value of games and matchups at the top tier, I would try to find ways to increase interest and, and put eyeballs on some of the games where lesser teams are playing, because I think that that would really enhance Football set Saturdays, regardless of who your favorite team is, you’re going to watch that you’re going to watch some of the marquee games. But I think it’s still interesting to then go watch some of the some of the teams that are struggling to win or really watch some of the best smaller conference schools, some of the whatever right now the group of five teams continue to try to play their way up into the, into the big leagues, so to speak, like what we’ve seen with Cincinnati and Boise recently kind of moving, moving up to the top tier of the G five and then eventually getting plucked by these by these conferences. So that relegation would be what I would explore if I if I could wave a magic wand.

Phil Callihan 44:55
It’s interesting. I was thinking about that when I was talking about like old big 10 new big 10 I was thinking, you know, there used to be, again, using the, the baseball analogy, there used to be upper division and lower division, right, like, and so I liked that, I think that that makes a lot of sense. You know, where you get teams that have something to fight for, right? So. So you know, and I’ve said this before, you know, at the beginning of every season, I want every Football team to know what they need to do, they need to do to make the playoffs, okay? I don’t want a team to have to rely on, you know, how the voters feel about them, or how the media covers them. So what I like about the expansion of the playoffs is, you know, we talked about how the diminishing value of, of the power five, right? But for now, hey, if you’re in a power five conference, when your conference when your championship game, and you’re in, okay, I don’t care what your record is, you know, you should be able to, there should be something you check the box, and you know, you’re in. And I think that’s where I don’t think the media is going to give up having the ability to vote and argue about who is really the best two teams, right. So my thing is, when, you know, their coaches should be able, every coach should be able to tell his team, you went out and you’re in, okay, or, you know, you make the conference championship game, you know, it shouldn’t be well, if you win the Champions game ship game, and everybody likes you enough. And you’re on TV enough, okay. The The other change, I would love to see, because, you know, I beat the drum on on every team should know what they need to do for years now. But what I’d like to see as flex scheduling, okay, I would love to see if we’re going to, you know, add games, as we have, you know, the, you know, the first game of the season, be a matchup of all the top Tanner or 14 teams from last season. Right? Force, a very difficult game on everybody right at the beginning, right. So yeah, I’d like to see some manner of flex scheduling where, you know, right now we have schedules set up, you know, sometimes 1015 20 years in the future. And what looks like a good game on paper now may not be just from a, you know, again, imagine if Michigan was playing TCU. Again, first game of the season, right? And And now, again, I’m not sure you would, you probably have one versus, you know, one versus three, two versus four. But that would be awesome. That would be great to see, Michigan get a chance to kind of wipe that stain off of the record. So again, I would like to see some manner of flex scheduling, and logistics wise, they’ll tell us that it can happen. And I just roll my eyes because somehow, you know, the NFL can can do playoff games with a with a week notice. But college Football needs 18 years to move on boss. Right. So

Clint Derringer 48:13
yeah, I think that’s right. And it’s, it’s something that they try to tackle again, with the bowl season. Again, these are, these are questions that have been answered in the past. It’s just a matter of figuring out a way to do it systematically.

Phil Callihan 48:27
You know, the big 10 will tell us that the big 10 Championship always needs to be in the Indianapolis because they need they need time to plan. And listen nothing against the good people of Indianapolis, but I would love to see the big 10 championship game get moved around a little bit, too, you know. So another thing while we’re talking about college Football playoffs is as the playoffs expand, I love the idea of on campus games for for the top teams. And and with the caveat that I’ve heard rumors about the big 10 Wanting to rotate that around, instead of having an on campus. I don’t want that at all. I want him to be on campus. I don’t care what the weather is, I don’t care what it looks like. So, you know, pass the big 10 championship game around however you want. But, you know, when the college Football playoffs, you know, with the expansion of hopefully the top teams being able to have a buy in or possibly a home game, depending how the schedule breaks out. I would really like on campus games.

Clint Derringer 49:39
Yeah, I agree. That’s it’s one of the kind of field leveling opportunities that comes with this change, you know, with the the dominance of the SEC. You know, now if one of those teams that we mentioned before slips up, and now has to get in as a lower seat. At least they now have to travel north and be out of there be out of their comfort. zone and play, you know, perhaps a cold weather game in December in a big 10 Stadium, and certainly certainly at least provides for some more interest. And, you know, if they continue to dominate by winning those road games after slipping up, then, you know, there’s not much to say, but, you know, show me first let me see it happen is you can compare bowl records, right as, as the big 10 teams travel to the west coast into the southeast part of the country and play these teams. Because at least they’re you know, quote, unquote, neutral fields, but you’re reversing the traffic flow. And having these teams come play in the cold weather late in the season, at least, would provide a an interesting data point that I’d like to see how successful they’re

Phil Callihan 50:46
We talked about earlier in the podcast, you want to have you want to improve the in stadium experience. You want to improve it have a game that matters, a huge game that matters, a historic game, that may only happened, you know, every X couple of years. And, you know, I think about, you know, we kind of we were in the wilderness wandering in the hope era and the Rodriguez era. And I wonder how many Michigan young Michigan fans just didn’t have that experience of seeing a huge win. That makes them want to be a fan forever. Right now. And I think that if there’s been anything great about the last couple of seasons is you could see, as Michigan, you know, has risen up against Ohio State and had some huge wins, you could definitely I could definitely look back and say yeah, these are the things that that young fans remember, these are the stories they’ll be telling 1020 years from now on why you go back and why you return. So if you want to improve in field or in stadium, have one of these epic matchups where the SEC has to travel up somewhere. So I think that would be the kind of thing that you could really excite your fan base with. And again, epic TV as well.

Phil Callihan 52:15
So Clint, do you have any other things that you would change or you’d like to see modified?

Clint Derringer 52:21
I think that’s the real that real large one with with relegation would drive most of it for me. And there’s a lot of smaller changes, that would probably have to happen to make that to make that work. But that’s, that’s where I would start, I’d love to see teams playing against each other that don’t normally get to play against each other. And I’d like to see more interest in the teams that the records are not necessarily great. But I’d like to see them really competing not only against each other on the field, but kind of keeping an eye on the mid tier conferences to see what’s happening, to see whether, you know, like I said, Rutgers is going to have to switch with Toledo or Central Michigan or something that would be that’s, that’s where I would start. I find that hugely entertaining to think about.

Phil Callihan 53:06
So I think that’s great from the fan perspective. And that’s something definitely I’d love to see. Right. I think from the player perspective, I would like to see a ton more transparency with NFL, like a, like a dashboard. Like for example. You know, schools will tout their academics, schools will tout their records, schools will tout how many players got drafted. I get the impression that NHL is now the Wild West. And a lot of promises being made a lot of things happening in the shadows. And, you know, you and I’ve talked about this, I think it’s great that players are being able to participate in the profits of their labors. Okay. I feel that in some ways, there’s a lot of snake oil being slathered about. And I think from a you know, if you’re, if you’re thinking about this as a marketplace, right, it would be really nice to know, you know, because you hear stories, right? You hear stories, and I have air quotes, right? of, well, this player is making a million dollars there and this player is making a half a million there. And you just wonder, right, you wonder if, if that is gossip to kind of encourage the next round of players and how much there is there. Okay. You know, we’ve heard a lot in the last couple of years about how Michigan was lagging behind in NHL. And you know, there was a recent announcement that Coach Harbaugh is now I think you can say endorsing a He’s a new collective here at Michigan. And, you know, it’s it’s going to be great. And it’s going to be wonderful. And there are a number of collectives all doing things a little bit differently. But not that we’re ever going to see anything from the NCAA because they’re useless. But I’m wondering if because there are no and follow me here. Because there’s financial finances involved, okay. And you have tax implications, if there’s going to be some mandatory reporting, that schools are going to have to do players are going to have to do that can be rounded up, collected, and there’ll be some kind of a dashboard of, you know, here is the average and I’ll take in this sport at this school. First of all, I’m just interested in it as a as from a fan’s perspective. Right, I would love to know, now that the SEC can’t just drop bags of money on people’s porches. You know, how big are those bags of money? How, how equally is it distributed? Right? And it would be interesting to see, and I think, you know, again, from a player’s perspective, you want to make sure they’re getting paid. Okay? You want to make sure there aren’t just stories going around that, you know, that the players who are performing and, you know, generating a lot of interest and a lot of value for their schools are being taken care of in such a way. And that there’s, again, some kind of oversight, that that the money’s really going where it needs to go.

Clint Derringer 56:43
Yeah, and I think there are lots of problems with NIL because it is the Wild West it is, you know, not quite brand new, but certainly a new phase of the game. But it’s still allowing players allowing college athletes to to monetize their name, image and likeness is the right thing, just because they play a sport or represent their institutions. I don’t believe that they should have that. That opportunity taken away from where the problems come from, in my opinion, are that the NIHL framework is being it’s a scapegoat or a shield from the NCAA institutions having to just pay the players directly as employees. Right. And this is the argument that is happening in the court system. And eventually we’ll get all the way to the top, I’m sure. And again, we’ve seen it, whether it’s the legislature or whether it’s the courts, the NCAA loses this argument 99 times out of 100, the the institutions and the governing organization, the NCAA are making huge amounts of revenue without having to share it at all, in terms of direct plant payment for the players. So name image and likeness was sort of a fig leaf concept that the the NCAA was kind of forced to accept in the courts, you know, in the last five years, and now they’re pointing at these problems. But in reality, the problems in terms of align with the fact that not everybody’s name, image and likeness has the same value, of course, right? So that having, you know, we’re seeing these collectives being put together to try to dump a bunch of money into from donors and other institutions, and then distribute to the players for playing, right. Well, that’s a problem. Yeah, because they’re trying to use this, this framework, that should be helping individual players monetize their name, image likeness. It’s being used as a collective to pay, you know, for salary, or to try to make sure that everybody who’s making the sacrifices for a team kind of is compensated across the board. And that’s not what it was meant for. But it’s trying to fill the gap that the institutions are leaving. So it is, in my opinion, it’s good that the opportunity for players of all sports, not just the big revenue, sports, but for all sports, to be able to use their standing in their sport and to monetize that is good and should stay to huge questions and problems, I think are still because this is being put in place rather than the institutions just recognizing that they are employing these players and making money off the backs of all those games and the content and the rest. So figuring that out, and deciding how We’re going to treat that in the courts and with the laws, hopefully at the federal level is really what’s going to happen to make sure that it’s it’s universal and standard. Otherwise it’s going to be, it’s always going to be the Wild West, because people are are trying to take care of a problem that NIHL wasn’t designed to solve.

Phil Callihan 1:00:21
So, Clint, I just want to be clear. I think it’s great. The players are getting paid. I’m I’m not, you know, in no way. I want no one to think that I am not completely 100% for the players being paid. When I say I want the visibility is I want them to know exactly where they should go to get paid to make sure that the money that they’re making the best choice possible. Okay. And my issue with the Collective’s, and I would say universally, okay. Whichever one, okay. Is we used to look at the NCAA and say, Okay, how much do you bring in how much goes back to the players? How much goes to overhead? Right? And we look at how much the NCAA pays, you know, their, their president, right. And there is no way on God’s green earth. Okay, that you can justify that. Right? I mean, that the NCAA can justify that. Okay. There’s no way that, you know, Mark emirate makes, you know, before he left $3 million here, there is no way he’s bet worth that. Okay, I can guarantee that you are I could do that job for a fraction of that, and do what the NCAA does, okay. So the point that I’m making with the collectives is, when I see the overhead and percentages they’re taking, okay, you should be able to have a dashboard that says, okay, collective, a collective bliss, collective, see, here’s the percentage that goes to the players, here’s the value, they each do things a little differently. So you can make that choice, okay. And when I say make a choice, you can make a choice between whether you’re gonna go to Texas or Michigan, or you’re going to go to Texas, or Alabama, or Michigan or Michigan State. So that’s why again, because you know, there’s going to be a collective part where you’re getting so much everybody’s getting something from the collective, and they’re going to be individual deals, right. And at some point, you got to pay taxes on that. And that’s why I’m wondering, why No, I’m not wondering, I’m thinking, this is going to have to happen at at the federal level. So you don’t get Florida or Alabama cutting their teams a break on state laws, right? You know, you know, death and taxes are coming, right. So if, at the federal level, there’ll be some kind of dashboard on last year, this is how much the average player made, right? And, and so that you don’t get recruited by somewhere, well, hey, you’re gonna get $5 million? Well, then you show up and you don’t, right. So that’s what I’m saying. Transparency is just information so that the players can make the best deal possible. Because it definitely feels to me when I read some of the organizations that are being set up, that the overhead is pretty high. So you should know that and, you know, again, they, they’re, it’s everything is so the problem I have is everything is better for the players now, right? Like, any collective can say, hey, this is a good deal, because there wasn’t anything before. And like you said, Hey, you be getting screwed for years. So anything is great, right? But I look at, you know, I think about, you know, and this is, you know, a far tangent, but like, when somebody signs a record contract, and then they hit it big, and then they look back five years later and go, Wow, that really wasn’t that good of a deal. Right? You should know what the deal is. And I think this is all going to get sorted out in the next five to 10 years. You know, I think five years from now, 10 years from now, we’ll go to a website somewhere and there will be a dashboard saying, you know, and and it will be something that players can evaluate just like the value of your degree, or the value of the network at the school you go to, but I would like to see steps made towards that sooner rather than later.

Clint Derringer 1:04:37
Yeah, anything that helps kind of clarify and protect the players, you know, this is kind of just opened the door to a whole nother population of people that are making money off the backs of what the players are doing.

Phil Callihan 1:04:50
Well, that’s what I’m saying. And that’s why you want to make sure you’re making the best deal. You know, there’s always the analogy of when there’s the gold rush the P who make money? Are the people selling pics? Right? I feel a lot of the collectives are the people selling pics. So, and again, you know, casting no aspersions. You know it costs money to set up an organization, but you should be able to evaluate. So all right. Well, Clint, we’ve tackled a lot in this podcast Do you have anything to to finish with?

Clint Derringer 1:05:22
Not looking forward to, you know, it’s the countdown is kind of started. I think it’s something like eight or maybe nine weeks until the regular season so we’ll have some specific season Football stuff to talk about here relatively soon.

Phil Callihan 1:05:37
And we’re anticipating quite a big season.