LAST WEEK RECAP
The Wolverines came back to force overtime on the Alabama Crimson Tide. Then Blake Corum and the Michigan defense put the finishing touches on an epic 27-20 victory in the Rose Bowl to qualify for the CFP National Championship game.
NEXT UP: vs. Washington: SP+ 12th, 18.8
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 12.2, Michigan Win Probability 76%
The post-bowl SP+ rankings show why Bill Connelly is constantly tweaking the algorithm, especially as college football changes over time. Michigan slid to #2 overall in the rankings because Georgia won by 60 over Florida State. There is currently no way for the model to adjust for significant injuries or opt-outs, so the dozen or so missing players for the Noles were not accounted for.
Michigan Offense (12th) vs. Washington Defense (44th)
A huge advantage for Michigan exists when they have possession against the Huskies’ defense. It is not a bad defense, especially in high leverage moments. However, the Wolverines played eight opponents with defensive units ranked higher than Washington’s. I expect Sherrone Moore to do what he’s done best all season. Michigan will look for run-pass balance early on, but will rely on Blake Corum and the running game to wear down the Huskies and keep Michael Penix Jr. on the Washington sideline.
Michigan Defense (1st) vs. Washington Offense (4th)
Both fan bases point to this strength-on-strength match up and warn the other side that they haven’t seen a unit like this in 2023. While it’s true given the context of this season, I feel most comfortable with Michigan’s defense preparing for a Heisman contender at quarterback with All American wide receivers. That’s because the entire defensive philosophy and scheme was designed to contain CJ Stroud, and the Ohio State wide receiver room. Penix could very likely throw for over 300 yards again on Monday night. In 2021, Stroud threw for 394 yards and two touchdowns himself. The key will be whether Michigan can make key plays inside their own 40 yard line to force field goal attempts, or come up with 4th down stops.
PREDICTION: The culmination of this amazing 2023 season has finally arrived. The story started to build 12 full months ago when upperclassmen like Blake Corum, Michael Barrett, and Zak Zinter were considering their returns to Ann Arbor. Immediately, the bar was set as high as possible when Corum declared to Crisler Arena in February that this team would win a National Championship. Then, during the early season the Wolverines started rolling comfortably in each game. The star players rarely played much in the second half of games, allowing depth players to get a significant number of snaps on both sides of the ball. But then the tougher part of the schedule arrived, and something unexpected happened: the depth guys were still getting snaps at big moments of the big games!
After reading, listening, talking (check out the preview podcast), and processing a lot of data about how this game could go, I think Michigan’s greatest edge might be their depth. Wide receiver Tyler Morris just scored his first career touchdown to take the lead over Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Safeties Quentin Johnson & Keon Sabb were both forced into duty by an untimely injury during the fourth quarter, and they both made huge plays late. The Wolverines harassed Jalen Milroe all night while still rotating at least seven defensive linemen consistently (prayers up for Rayshaun Benny). Michigan created game plans and managed their roster for an entire season to ensure they could be as close to full strength as possible in the College Football Playoff. Now it’s time to go play the game, and earn not only the National Title, but the title of Greatest Michigan Team of All Time.
Michigan 31 Washington 24
MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 01/02/24, 14-0
- SP+ Overall: 2nd (↓1), 31.0
- SP+ Offense: 12th (↓2), 36.5
- SP+ Defense: 1st (same), 7.3
- SP+ Special Teams: 7th (↓3), 1.8
- AP Poll: 1st (same)
- Coaches’ Poll: 1st (same)
- CFP Rank: 1st (same)
