GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS
Final Score: 52-17, Michigan by 35 over UTEP
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 32.5 (+2.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 27 (+8)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 3 RECAP vs. UTEP
The offense still had fans chewing on their finger nails in the first half. Despite a 50% success rate in the first two quarters, the Wolverines had only mustered 17 points against one of the weakest defenses in the country per SP+. Then Michigan stormed out of the tunnel and boat raced the Miners in the third quarter. The offense finally clicked for three touchdown drives in Q3. Bryce Underwood looked sharper as a passer, and both Savion Hiter and Jordan Marshall found some space in the middle. By the time the fourth quarter rolled around, the Wolverines looked like they may bring a balanced offense into Big Ten play next week.
On defense, Michigan was victimized by penalties and turnovers. on UTEP’s first possession, a 3rd down sack was wiped out by an offside penalty. The Miners executed a beautifully executed play-action pass for an explosive touchdown. When Savion Hiter’s fumble turned into a one-play touchdown drive to make it 14-7 UTEP, the Big House felt like a funeral parlor. Just like the offense, the defense flipped a switch at halftime. UTEP ran 12 plays for -5 yards in the third quarter, and Jonah Lea’ea returned an intercepted screen pass for a score in the third. The Wolverines spent the entire second half in the Miners’ backfield, and plays that actually moved the ball forward we few and far between.
The special teams units looked fine, and proved to be head and shoulders better than the opponent today. Kicker Try Butkowski hit a 49-yard field goal to end the first half to give Michigan the lead. It was extra reassuring to see Butkowski nail his first opportunity from significant distance, and he had maybe 5-6 yards to spare in tough conditions.
No doubt, we’ll hear a lot about “a tale of two halves” and the cliche fits this game pretty perfectly. Michigan should still be concerned about sloppiness. They may have been looking past another opponent in their game planning and in their first half energy. There is absolutely no more excuse for that again on this team. In the grand scheme, Michigan finishes the first quarter of the season 3-0 with momentum and a large stack of valuable film to learn from. The Iowa Hawkeyes come to visit next week for the Big Ten opener. Michigan will have to continue to clean up their execution, and ride the wave of this second half. Iowa will not beat themselves, the Wolverines will need four full quarters to win. Go Blue!