Tag: Statistics

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By the Numbers: 2024 Michigan Football Season Preview

On defense, the Wolverines will challenge to be the best unit in the country again in 2024.  Junior tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant will garner the most attention.  Josiah Stewart and Derrick Moore will start on the edges, while cornerback Will Johnson returns to lead the secondary.

Michigan enters the 2024 season defending the 2023 National Championship, and as the three-time defending B1G Ten champions.  However, the college football world is totally different with conference realignment expanding the B1G Ten to eighteen teams, and the CFP expanding to include twelve teams.  The football program is also turning the page from the Harbaugh era into the Sherrone Moore era. 

The new staff valued consistency on offense, hiring from within the program to fill coaching holes.  On defense, every position coach is new to the program, but coordinator Wink Martindale was instrumental in designing the defensive scheme run by Jesse Minter in 2023.  Finally, it’s August with a bright red target painted onto the back of the Wolverines, so we kick off the return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with this game-by-game preview of the 2024 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbers articles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.

The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system is meant to be predictive for making educated bets, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games.

What is SP+

SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.. 

2024 Preseason SP+ Rankings (ESPN+)

Original Explanation (SB Nation)

PAST RESULTS

When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record and that of the SP+ projections, both straight up and against the spread (ATS) since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com in 2018.  I track the preseason predictions (locked in August), as well as the game week predictions.

Predicting Michigan Games in Preseason (2018-23)

Predicting Michigan Games on Game Week (2018-23)

SP+ Projections & By the Numbers Predictions

Michigan 2024 SP+ Preseason Ranking

Overall – 7th, 25.0
Offense – 41st, 31.9
Defense – 3rd, 6.9

Michigan’s 3rd ranked SP+ defense will likely carry the load, especially early in the season while a new starting QB and new offensive line take time to settle in.  The 2024 season does not have the same slow ramp up that the 2023 season had, so the Wolverines will need to round into shape very quickly in September to manage one of the nation’s toughest schedules.

2024 Regular Season Schedule

vs. Fresno State: 63rd Overall, 46th Offense, 88th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 27.6

PREDICTION: The national title celebration will continue into August in Ann Arbor as Wolverine fans return to the stadium and check out the 2023 signage.  The Fresno State Bulldogs are no pushover, though.  The former home of Kalen Deboer has new leadership again after Jeff Tedford stepped away this offseason due to health concerns and Tim Skipper takes over.  I expect the Wolverines to ride the huge blue wave of energy from the fans under the lights at the Big House and overwhelm the Bulldogs early.
Michigan 31 Fresno St. 7, 1-0 

vs. Texas: 5th Overall, 4th Offense, 12th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Texas by 0.2

PREDICTION: The Texas Longhorns were right in the center of conference realignment frenzy when they joined the rival Sooners from Oklahoma and jumped from the Big 12 to the SEC.  This is a program that is hungry coming off a CFP semifinal loss a year ago.  While I have full confidence in Michigan’s defense to keep any game close, I think the difference is Texas’ experienced QB Quinn Ewers and returning 4 of 5 starters from a very effective offensive line.  Early in the season, Michigan will still be ironing out too many wrinkles, and Texas will capitalize just enough to win in Ann Arbor. 
Michigan 14 Texas 20, 1-1

vs. Arkansas State: 93rd Overall, 65th Offense, 122nd Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 36.6

PREDICTION: While the Red Wolves may be contenders for a Sun Belt championship this season, they get a tough draw on the schedule here catching Michigan after a loss.  The week of practice that focuses on correcting the inevitable mistakes that emerge against Texas will help propel the Michigan offense forward.  On the flip side, Arkansas State will struggle to stop most teams, but could really get steamrolled with a wide talent margin.  I expect to see one of the Wolverines’ best performances here, and they could really light up the scoreboard. 
Michigan 33 Arkansas St. 6, 2-1

vs. USC: 21st Overall, 5th Offense, 83rd Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 13.6

PREDICTION: The B1G Ten slate starts off with a banger as the USC Trojans come to Ann Arbor for a 3:30 kickoff.  Miller Moss steps into huge shoes at quarterback, replacing 1st overall draft pick Caleb Williams.  More importantly, D’Anton Lynn steps in as defensive coordinator, replacing Alex Grinch.  In simple terms, I think the defense takes a moderate step forward, but the offense takes a larger step backward.  The net result is an overrated team from Los Angeles. 
Michigan 27 USC 10, 3-1

vs. Minnesota: 47th Overall, 89th Offense, 22nd Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 23.3

PREDICTION: PJ Fleck is still searching for the formula he used to rack up 10-win seasons for the Gophers when he first arrived in Minneapolis.  While the defense has been shored up, the offense still lacks consistency.  In 2024 Fleck will turn to Max Hosmer, a transfer from New Hampshire who slings it all over.  I’m skeptical that Minnesota will have it figured out on offense in early October.  This could be a chance for a breakout game for the Wolverines’ pass rushers.  
Michigan 24 Minnesota 9, 4-1

@ Washington: 32nd Overall, 26th Offense, 44th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 12.2

PREDICTION: The rematch of last season’s CFP National Championship game will feature two very different teams.  Former friend & trusted agent Jedd Fisch takes over the program after Kalen DeBoer moved to Tuscaloosa.  The Huskies are also replacing nearly every starter from their high-powered offense from a year ago, just like Michigan.  I am always wary of away games in tough environments, and Seattle definitely qualifies.  It’s also the first road trip of the season, and a west coast swing to boot.  I predict the Wolverines will have to find a way to battle and steal a victory in a game where they may not play their best.  
Michigan 21 Washington 20, 5-1

@ Illinois: 61st Overall, 87th Offense, 40th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 22.4

PREDICTION: Michigan returns from a mid-season bye week and hits the road again to visit Champagne and take on Bret Bielma’s Illini squad.  Illinois returns a good chunk of their offensive production, but they need to improve in the trenches.  I like their chances to take a step forward on both the offensive and defensive lines in 2024.  But, this matchup doesn’t align very well for the Illini. They want to smash a defense up the middle, and that is the strength of the Wolverines’ D.  This is probably another ugly game, but I expect Michigan to win the field position battle and to chalk up another W.  
Michigan 20 Illinois 7, 6-1

vs. Michigan State: 71st Overall, 121st Offense, 26th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 29.9

PREDICTION: Another program looking to turn the page into a new era is just up the road in East Lansing.  The Spartans hired well when they snagged Jonathon Smith from Oregon State.  The turnover in personnel will keep Michigan State on the wrong side of the ledger against the best teams. However, I expect them to surprise somebody at least once in 2024.  The Wolverines will not be that team.  Sparty still has the full attention of the players in Ann Arbor, and the Michigan faithful will be amped up to welcome the team home to the Big House.  Tough break for State.  
Michigan 30 Michigan State 3, 7-1

vs. Oregon: 3rd Overall, 1st Offense, 15th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Oregon by 1.5

PREDICTION: Oregon is a trendy pick to win a B1G Ten title in their first year in the conference.  Quarterback Dillon Gabriel transferred in from Oklahoma and leads the SP+ top-ranked offense.  While the schedule makers created a very tough slate for the Wolverines, they do get a small break hosting the Ducks in November.  Oregon will come into the game having already played Ohio State at home, as well.  I think that opportunity to scout the Ducks’ best shot will give the Wolverines’ defense just enough edge to slow down Oregon.  Also, by the ninth game, we’ll start to see the Michigan offensive line really moving people up front.  This game will plant U-M right back into the national title conversation. 
Michigan 24 Oregon 13, 8-1

@ Indiana: 81st Overall, 91st Offense, 61st Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 27.0

PREDICTION: New head coach Curt Cignetti decided he wanted to kick down the doors on his entrance into the B1G Ten, calling out not only the rival Boilermakers but Michigan and Ohio State too.  The Hoosiers’ roster has also been imported from James Madison University.  Even if Indiana moves leaps and bounds forward, they are still not on the same level as the Wolverines from a talent perspective.  That will show in this game as depth becomes a major factor this deep into the season. 
Michigan 28 Indiana 10, 9-1

vs. Northwestern: 75th Overall, 117th Offense, 29th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 30.3

PREDICTION: Michigan will come off the second bye week of the season and host the Northwestern Wildcats for Senior Day at the Big House.  David Braun pulled a rabbit out of his hat in 2023, leading the ‘Cats to an 8-5 finish. Many pundits questioned whether they would win any games at all.  I would be surprised to see the positivity extend into 2024, though.  Northwestern will still struggle to move the ball against B1G Ten teams. And, by late November they could be sporting a very thin two-deep.  The Wolverines will likely keep their best stuff on the shelf in this game with many eyeballs turning toward Columbus. 
Michigan 23 Northwestern 6, 10-1

@ Ohio State: 2nd Overall, 25th Offense, 2nd Defense

PRESEASON SP+: OSU by 8.3

PREDICTION: It’s a bit startling to see Ohio State head into a season with an offense ranked as low as 25th in SP+.  The Buckeyes are perennially at the top of Bill Connelly’s ratings on offense.  After pinning the blame for the 2023 loss on Kyle McCord, the program forced him out via transfer to Syracuse.  In comes running QB Will Howard, and new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly to call plays.  These two defensive units may very well be the best two in the country, so the team who minimizes mistakes on offense and special teams is going to win.  If the Wolverines were at home, I would pick them to win, but right now I lean toward a Buckeye victory in the Shoe.  
Michigan 17 Ohio State 21, 10-2

3rd Place in B1G Ten
CFP At-Large Selection – 8th seed

Senior running back Donovan Edwards looks to carry the torch passed on by JJ McCarthy and 9 other starters from the 2023 team.  Edwards has scored some of the most iconic touchdowns in Michigan football history, but now it’s his turn to be the featured back.
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By the Numbers: 2023 Michigan Football Season Preview

On offense, Donovan Edwards returns in the backfield next to Heisman hopeful Blake Corum.  Junior quarterback J.J. McCarthy will be responsible to distribute the ball to both star running backs while the Wolverines also look to increase the share of pass plays called in 2023.

Michigan enters the 2023 season as the two-time defending B1G Ten champions.  The Wolverines were able to prove the 2021 season was no fluke by traveling to Columbus and pulling away from the Buckeyes for their first road win in The Game since 2000.  Blake Corum headlines a list of players returning who could have been drafted by the NFL last April.  Now, it’s August so with sky-high expectations we kick off the 2023 return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with this game-by-game preview of the 2023 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbers articles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.

The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system is meant to be predictive for making educated bets, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games.

What is SP+

SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.
2023 Preseason SP+ Rankings (ESPN+)
Original Explanation (SB Nation)

PAST RESULTS

When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record, and that of the SP+ projections, since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com in 2018.  

Connelly’s SP+ preseason projections are amazingly accurate in picking the straight up winners over the past 5 seasons (80% correct).  Against the spread, the SP+ results improve once there is 2023 game data available to be fed into the model each week.  The game week SP+ projections correctly pick the winner against the spread in Michigan games 55% of the time. 

Historically in this space, my By the Numbers preseason predictions have been correct 76% of the time straight up, and 52% against the spread.  The data are pretty clear also that I have a harder time adjusting away from my preseason notions than the SP+ model does.  Once we get into game week predictions, my accuracy only improves by ~4% points once we have seen the Wolverines on the field.

Predicting Michigan Games in Preseason (2018-22)

SP+ Preseason ProjectionsBy the Numbers Preseason Predictions
Straight Upvs. SpreadStraight Upvs. Spread
201811-17-59-38-4
201911-17-510-27-5
20203-33-33-33-3
20217-51-118-44-8
202211-14-811-16-6
TOTAL43-11, 80%22-32, 41%41-13, 76%28-26, 52%

Predicting Michigan Games on Game Week (2018-22)

SP+ Game Week ProjectionsBy the Numbers Game Week Predictions
Straight Upvs. SpreadStraight Upvs. Spread
201811-26-710-23-9
201913-07-611-210-3
20203-34-23-35-1
202112-29-510-48-6
202212-27-713-17-7
TOTAL51-9, 85%33-27, 55%47-12, 80%33-26, 56%

SP+ Projections & By the Numbers Predictions

Michigan 2023 SP+ Preseason Ranking

Overall – 3rd, 28.6
Offense – 7th, 40.1
Defense – 4th, 11.5

As mentioned above, Michigan has the highest possible preseason expectations after reaching the College Football Playoff, but losing in the semifinals both of the past two seasons.  The returning production on offense keeps the Wolverines in the top ten in Offense SP+ rankings.  Their jump all the way up to 4th in the preseason Defense SP+ rankings really stands out, though.  Together the units combine to place Michigan in the 3rd Overall spot with Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, & Alabama all within 1.1 points of one another.

2023 Regular Season Schedule

vs. East Carolina: 87th Overall, 93rd Offense, 81st Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 37.3

PREDICTION: The non-conference slate is relatively weak for a second consecutive year.  Of the three opponents from outside the B1G Ten, the Pirates hold the highest preseason SP+ rating.  ECU has enjoyed moderate success in the American Athletic Conference in five years under Mike Houston.  While there will be some big plays from both sides, Michigan’s offensive firepower will overwhelm the Pirates near halftime.
Michigan 45 ECU 13, 1-0

vs. UNLV: 110th Overall, 100th Offense, 112th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 43.2

PREDICTION: Typically in coach speak, a team makes a significant jump from the first game week to the second.  I expect the Wolverines to clean up a handful of near misses from their first game.  The underwhelming Rebels will be somewhat unlucky opponents during a much cleaner performance from Michigan.
Michigan 52 UNLV 6, 2-0

vs. Bowling Green: 129th Overall, 105th Offense, 130th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 49.0

PREDICTION: According to preseason SP+, the Falcons are the weakest opponent on Michigan’s 2023 regular season schedule.  We already know this game has been slotted into the 7:30 PM slot on Big Ten Network, so maybe the night game atmosphere will provide some electricity.  I am expecting a big margin of victory here, but we definitely have to keep an eye on whether or not the Wolverines allow themselves to become overconfident and sluggish. 
Michigan 48 BGSU 7, 3-0

vs. Rutgers: 77th Overall, 99th Offense, 60th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 34.3

PREDICTION: Week 4 brings another opponent ranked in the bottom half of the nation in SP+ as the B1G 10 season kicks off against Rutgers.  Consistently, Greg Schiano has the Scarlet Knights well prepared for the Michigan game, especially his defensive unit.  This matchup is highly likely to expose some offensive flaws for the Wolverines that we may not know about yet.  In the end, the Wolverines will make the key plays they need in the 2nd half to win by two scores.
Michigan 31 Rutgers 16, 4-0

@ Nebraska: 59th Overall, 68th Offense, 38th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 24.9

PREDICTION: The first B1G Ten road game lands in Lincoln, Nebraska.  New head coach Matt Rhule inherits a program that has some talent on both sides of the ball, but could never find the missing link under Scott Frost.  The Wolverines cruised past Nebraska in Ann Arbor 34-3 last year, but  I expect this game to look and feel much more like the 2021 edition.  The Huskers could be 3-1 or 4-0 heading in and will be looking to make a major program statement at Michigan’s expense.
Michigan 34 Nebraska 13, 5-0

@ Minnesota: 27th Overall, 57th Offense, 9th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 15.8

PREDICTION: P.J. Fleck has raised the bar for the Golden Gophers’ fans.  They are consistently a tough match up in B1G West games, although they haven’t yet broken through and qualified for a trip to Indianapolis.  Even if Michigan is firing on all cylinders at this point in the season, a 2nd consecutive B1G Ten road trip against a quality opponent will be a legitimate test for Jim Harbaugh’s crew.  The Wolverines are the better team, but they will have to overcome some adversity to win this one in Minneapolis.
Michigan 31 Minnesota 14, 6-0

vs. Indiana: 83rd Overall, 71st Offense, 100th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 34.8

PREDICTION: The back half of the regular season starts with Tom Allen’s Hoosiers visiting Ann Arbor.  Indiana again finds themselves in a spot on Michigan’s schedule that could present a trap game risk where a rivalry game is looming on deck.  These risks were much scarier when the Hoosiers were sporting a defense ranked better than 100th in SP+, but Indiana rebuilt their 2023 roster via the transfer portal so the range of potential outcomes here could be pretty wide.  

Michigan 42 Indiana 14, 7-0

@ Michigan State: 46th Overall, 62nd Offense, 30th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 22.3

PREDICTION: Michigan’s final game in the month of October is their third road game in four weeks.  It also happens to be a short trip to East Lansing to take on the Spartans in their 2023 super bowl equivalent game.  To avoid disaster, the Wolverines will have to eliminate major mistakes and create turnovers versus MSU’s less-talented offense.  Getting off to a fast start and taking the Spartan crowd out of the game would be a big help, but if this game stays close then Michigan will be forced to win another dog fight.
Michigan 31 Michigan State 20, 8-0

vs. Purdue: 58th Overall, 53rd Offense, 55th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 24.6

PREDICTION: Michigan returns home after the bye week in a rematch of the 2022 B1G Championship game against Purdue.  Jeff Brohm left for his alma mater Louisville, so rookie head coach Ryan Walters will lead the Boilermakers.  The preseason SP+ ratings place the Boilers almost exactly in the middle of FBS,  but I think Walters will overachieve in year one, especially on defense.  This game could worry some folks at the Big House because it may stay close all the way into the 4th quarter.
Michigan 30 Purdue 17, 9-0

@ Penn State: 6th Overall, 22nd Offense, 5th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 5.6

PREDICTION: Perhaps the biggest TV scheduling break for the Wolverines  comes in Week 11.  FOX has already penciled the potential top-ten battle into the noon slot.  This allows Michigan to avoid the White Out night game atmosphere at Beaver Stadium.  On the field, the Nittany Lions are loaded with talent in many of the same positions as the Wolverines.  They have two great running backs, and several great playmakers on defense.  For Michigan, this game will be decided by the quarterback comparison.  I like the odds that J.J. McCarthy will step up and outshine PSU’s sophomore Drew Allar.
Michigan 27 PSU 17, 10-0

@ Maryland: 41st Overall, 47th Offense, 27th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 19.3

PREDICTION: The Wolverines will visit old friend Josh Gattis in Week 12 as Michigan travels to College Park to take on the Terrapins.  Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has big-time playmaker ability that can help keep pace with Michigan’s offense.  However, he often makes big mistakes in key moments, especially when under pressure.  This game will be a great test for the Wolverines’ secondary as they attempt to bottle up a “Speed in Space” offense.  
Michigan 35 Maryland 21, 11-0

vs. Ohio State: 2nd Overall, 1st Offense, 12th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: OSU by 0.2

PREDICTION: As far as we can reasonably predict in the preseason, The Game is shaping up to be another clash of B1G Ten & national title contenders.  On defense, the Buckeyes will likely continue to improve in year two under coordinator Jim Knowles, but they will again be forced to sell out to try and stop Michigan’s run game.  Offensively, OSU boasts the most prolific wide receiver room in the country, and nobody is really that close.  Wolverines’ defensive coordinator Jesse Minter will have to use every coverage look and any creative pressure packages he can conjure to slow the Buckeyes’ first-year starting quarterback: either Kyle McCord or Devin Brown.  
Michigan 39 Ohio State 33, 12-0

1st Place in B1G Ten East

Sophomore cornerback Will Johnson emerged on the national scene with two interceptions in the B1G Ten Championship game vs. Purdue in 2022.  This season he will be expected to lock down nearly every opponent for defensive coordinator Jesse Minter.

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By the Numbers: 2022 Michigan Football Season Preview

Michigan’s offense returns nearly everybody, including Ronnie Bell who led the team in receiving in 2019 & 2020 before suffering an ACL injury in last year’s season opener.

Michigan is looking to follow up on perhaps their best season since the 1997 National Championship. We endured a “will he, won’t he” with Jim Harbaugh and the NFL. We’re also just starting a QB battle between Cade McNamara and JJ McCarthy that threatens to split the fan base in half. But now it’s Labor Day weekend, and that means we kick off the 2022 return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with a game-by-game preview of the 2022 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbers articles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.

The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system is meant to be predictive for beating the odds against Vegas, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games.

What is SP+

SP+ is the tempo and opponent adjusted college football  analytical model developed by Bill Connelly for Football Outsiders (he is now at ESPN).  SP+ is based around the core concepts of the Five Factors of winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers.  The resulting metric is expressed in adjusted points per game, as compared to the average CFB team. 

Original Explanation

2022 SP+ Rankings (Google Sheets)

PAST RESULTS

When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record, and that of the SP+ projections, since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com in 2018.  

Connelly’s SP+ preseason projections were amazingly accurate in picking the straight up winners in 2018 & 2019, missing only twice (2018 picked MSU & 2019 picked Michigan over PSU).  In 2019, as Connelly updated his model through the season for Game Week projections, SP+ correctly picked the straight up winner in all 13 games for Michigan.  Just like almost everything in 2020, college football projections were a total crapshoot, even for the best in the business.  In 2021 the SP+ preseason model was off in their preseason evaluation of Michigan, including 1-11 against the spread.  That can be forgiven since nearly everyone was surprised by Michigan’s 2021 Championship turnaround.

Like most Michigan fans, I have often been a victim of preseason optimism.  The 2018 season was also a painful learning experience while riding too high on the Revenge Tour.  While I picked the correct outcome in 10 out of 12 games, I was bad at predicting the margins.  That led to a 3-9 inaugural season against the spread.    In 2019 I bounced back against the spread to 10-3, and followed up with a 5-1 record in the 2020 COVID season.  That one miss in 2020 was my worst ever, in Game #2 vs. MSU.  I cooled off a touch in 2021 with an 8-6 record against the spread in my game week predictions.

Predicting Michigan Games in Preseason (2018-21)

Predicting Michigan Games on Game Week (2018-21)

SP+ Projections & By the Numbers Predictions

Michigan 2022 SP+ Preseason Ranking

Overall – 6th, 21.4
Offense – 6th, 39.9
Defense – 17th, 18.6

The Wolverines’ SP+ ranking is in alignment with our preseason expectations.  The defense looks like it should be good, but maybe not great.  The offense will likely be asked to carry the team multiple times in 2022, particularly in the first half of the season.

2022 Regular Season Schedule

vs. Colorado State: 96th Overall, 109th Offense, 71st Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 31.5

PREDICTION: The weakness of the non-conference slate in 2022 has gotten a lot of publicity as Michigan’s season draws near.  Colorado State brings the SP+ 96th ranked team to Ann Arbor, and they are the highest ranked non-con opponents…by ~30 spots.  I think the Rams will finish the season much higher than 96th, but this game will see the Wolverines trying to make a statement that last year was no fluke.

Michigan 49 Colorado State 14, 1-0

vs. Hawaii: 123rd Overall, 101st Offense, 129th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 43.1

PREDICTION: It’s tough to make too much out of this mismatch.  Hawaii always has an uphill climb with the logistics challenges involved with flying a football team across an ocean for half your season.  This season new head coach Timmy Chang will be given plenty of leeway to show what he’s capable of.  I expect this Week 2 night game matchup with Michigan to be pretty lopsided for the Wolverines.  

Michigan 56 Hawaii 9, 2-0

vs. UConn: 128th Overall, 129th Offense, 122nd Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 48.8

PREDICTION: Michigan might experience an emotional let down in Week 3.  UConn comes into Ann Arbor with their new head coach Jim Mora.  If the Huskies are 0-2 and look as listless as they did in 2021, this one will struggle to crack 100K in Big House attendance.  Let’s hope the apathy is limited to the fan base, and the team is not caught looking ahead to the B1G season opener.

Michigan 37 UConn 10, 3-0

vs. Maryland: 54th Overall, 29th Offense, 89th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 19.8

PREDICTION: This game has already lulled Michigan fans and local media to sleep.  The preseason narrative is all about the weak “September Schedule” and the first four walkover games before a road trip to Iowa City.  That is a big mistake.  Maryland’s wide receivers are in the same tier as Michigan’s & Ohio States.  If the Terps can protect Taulia Tagovailoa, and can also protect the football, this game could be a shoot out.

Michigan 48 Maryland 39, 4-0

@ Iowa: 27th Overall, 62nd Offense, 8th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 5.6

PREDICTION: The Wolverines have experienced multiple nightmares at Kinnick versus the Hawkeyes.  Both teams could be 4-0 leading into this rematch of the 2021 B1G Championship Game.  If that happens, FOX probably chooses this game for their noon slot.  That would be a very good break for Michigan.  Regardless of time slot, I expect this game will be a low-scoring rock fight. Bet the under as soon as it’s available.

Michigan 20 Iowa 13, 5-0

@ Indiana: 86th Overall, 98th Offense, 68th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 23.9

PREDICTION: Indiana’s program has been problematic for Michigan under Tom Allen’s leadership.  I think this 2nd consecutive road trip will create some fatigue for the Wolverines, and the Hoosiers will do their best to duplicate the Iowa defensive game plan.  In the end, this may be the game where we find out which players will step up in the biggest moments for Michigan.  Initially, I am looking to Ronnie Bell and DJ Turner to make the critical plays in high leverage situations.

Michigan 31 Indiana 17, 6-0

vs. Penn State: 13th Overall, 48th Offense, 6th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 7.4

PREDICTION: The Nittany Lions travel to the Big House to kick off the 2nd half of the schedule.  Traditionally, Jim Harbaugh’s teams have handled James Franklin’s program with ease in home games.  The 2020 COVID year was a glaring exception.  Penn State’s defense could keep this from getting to blow out status, but I think the Wolverines will stay in control for almost the entire game to stay unbeaten.

Michigan 29 Penn State 17, 7-0

vs. Michigan State: 15th Overall, 20th Offense, 20th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 7.8

PREDICTION: I am mostly a believer in Mel Tucker’s ability to put together a dangerous team from the transfer portal.  I expect the 2022 battle for the Paul Bunyan trophy to resemble a heavyweight fight.  Both sides will land some haymakers.  The biggest advantage for Michigan will be talent in the secondary.  I expect to see the Wolverines make 1 or 2 huge plays in the 4th quarter, with perhaps another Andrel Anthony sighting.

Michigan 41 Michigan State 33, 8-0

@ Rutgers: 80th Overall, 96th Offense, 56th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 21.6

PREDICTION: Plain and simple, Greg Schiano’s defensive scheme gives Michigan problems.  The Wolverines got out to a good start against the Scarlet Knights in 2021, but their lack of linebacker depth allowed Rutgers to hang out longer than Maize & Blue faithful were comfortable with.  This might be the BTN night game, on the road in Piscataway.  I think Schiano finds a way to keep it close again.

Michigan 30 Rutgers 20, 9-0

vs. Nebraska: 44th Overall, 53rd Offense, 33rd Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 15.6

PREDICTION: The crystal ball gets pretty cloudy when trying to predict November games from the couch in preseason.  Nebraska is a total wild card.  History says that Scott Frost will put together a very solid football team.  But, they will find ways to lose football games.  In a lot of ways they remind me of my favorite NFL team.  I am just assuming the Cornhuskers get it figured out well enough to give this game a medium-sized profile.  I also expect Frost to find a way to choke away a heartbreaker. 

Michigan 24 Nebraska 23, 10-0

vs. Illinois: 79th Overall, 104th Offense, 42nd Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 26.3

PREDICTION: In 2022, the Fighting Illini have drawn the sandwich November trap game slot in Michigan’s schedule.  If the Wolverines find themselves undefeated and in the hunt for a B1G Championship and CFP berth, then the most important question will be whether the players can focus on anything other than The Game.  This will be Senior Night, and player leadership will be crucial in keeping Illinois & their running game in the crosshairs.   

Michigan 42 Illinois 21, 11-0

@ Ohio State: 3rd Overall, 1st Offense, 15th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: OSU by 10.8

PREDICTION: Ohio State’s offense is probably going to be BETTER than that Death Star from 2021.  CJ Stroud, Jackson Smith-Njigba, & Trevyon Henderson were superstars last year, and they will all be battling for Heisman trophy consideration by this point in the season.  The bigger questions reside on the Buckeyes’ coaching staff.  Has Ryan Day’s 1-1 record versus Michigan sewn any lasting doubt?  Can Jim Knowles right the ship on defense in one season?  I expect the Wolverines will have a number of chances to win their 2nd consecutive game versus OSU for the first time since 2000.  However, in Columbus, I am bracing myself for something ridiculous to happen.

Michigan 39 Ohio State 45, 11-1
2nd Place in B1G Ten East

DJ Turner emerged as a shutdown corner late in 2021, and will be asked to provide leadership for a young secondary in 2022.  Can new Defensive Coordinator Jesse Minter create enough pressure to generate more turnovers this season?
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By the Numbers: 2021 Michigan Football Season Preview

Michigan’s offense will be led by a deep and talented group of running backs. Hassan Haskins returns as the leading rusher, averaging 6.1 yards per carry in the 2020 season.

Michigan’s six-game 2020 football season was the shortest of the modern era, but it didn’t feel that way.  After an excruciating 2-4 slog, a rampant covid outbreak, multiple canceled games, and an over-analyzed, anticlimactic contract extension for Jim Harbaugh, I think we all deserved a break. But now it’s August, and that means we kick off the 2021 return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with a game-by-game preview of the 2021 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbers articles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.

The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system was meant to be predictive for beating the odds against Vegas, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games. Here are his 2021 B1G West & B1G East preseason preview articles (ESPN+ subscription required).

What is SP+
SP+ is the tempo and opponent adjusted college football analytical model developed by Bill Connelly for Football Outsiders (he is now at ESPN). SP+ is based around the core concepts of the Five Factors of winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers.  The resulting metric is expressed in adjusted points per game, as compared to the average CFB team. Original Explanation
2021 Preseason SP+ Rankings

PAST RESULTS

When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record, and that of the SP+ projections, since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com 3 seasons ago.

Connelly’s SP+ preseason projections were amazingly accurate in picking the straight up winners in 2018 & 2019, missing only twice (2018 picked MSU & 2019 picked Michigan over PSU). In 2019, as Connelly updated his model through the season for Game Week projections, SP+ correctly picked the straight up winner in all 13 games for Michigan. Just like almost everything in 2020, college football projections were a total crapshoot, even for the best in the business. Predicting Michigan’s version of 2020 in the preseason produced a record of 3-3 straight up and versus the spread for SP+, and for me too.

While it’s no shock that I tend to be more optimistic on Michigan in the preseason, I have learned to adjust from my original viewpoint once we’re into game weeks. The 2018 season was a real learning experience while riding too high on the Revenge Tour. While I picked the correct outcome in 10 out of 12 games, I was bad at predicting the margins. That led to a 3-9 inaugural season against the spread. In 2019 I bounced back against the spread to 10-3, and followed up with a 5-1 record last season. That one miss in 2020 was my worst ever, in Game #2 vs. MSU. At least I was able to recalibrate after that disaster. Let’s hope the football program can too.

Predicting Michigan Games in Preseason (2018-20)

2018-20 Preseason Projections

Predicting Michigan Games on Game Week (2018-20)

2018-20 Game Week Predictions

SP+ Projections & By the Numbers Predictions

Michigan 2021 SP+ Preseason Ranking

Overall – 17th, 18.3
Offense – 28th, 35.4
Defense – 10th, 17.1

I am sure these numbers are a surprise to most Michigan fans. The SP+ model takes multi-year history into account, especially in the preseason version. While 2020 was a near total collapse, Michigan has maintained moderate success on the recruiting trail in the Harbaugh era, and returns an average amount of production on both sides of the ball. The ranking of the defensive unit will be pretty volatile, given that Mike MacDonald is coordinating for the first time. While I don’t think Michigan will end the season with the 10th ranked defense, this is a reminder that we are likely to see a significant improvement over last year’s unit.

2021 Regular Season Schedule

vs. Western Michigan: 72nd Overall, 44th Offense, 99th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 16.5, Michigan win probability: 89% 

PREDICTION: This is a great game to open the 2021 season for a couple reasons.  First and foremost, it’s a game that Michigan should win.  The Wolverines could also, in the best-case scenario, get a comfortable second half lead and let some young players gain valuable experience.  But, the game is also great for us to gauge what type of season we’re in for.  Western’s offense is a legit threat with a returning QB who threw for 285 yards per game last year.  This will be a solid test for Mike MacDonald to cut his teeth, and there will be more than one instance of growing pains.  As a forewarning, WMU’s SP+ ranking of #72 is the same as the 2019 Army squad that took Michigan to double overtime.
Michigan 37 WMU 24, 1-0

vs. Washington: 13th Overall, 11th Offense, 25th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Washington by 1.9, Michigan win probability: 42%

PREDICTION: The Wolverines get their first Power 5 test in Week 2 against an interesting Washington Huskies team.  On one hand, the Huskies won the Pac-12 North last year with a 3-1 record.  On the other hand, they played all 4 games at home, and had games canceled vs. Cal, WSU, Oregon, and USC.  Clearly Washington’s program navigated the covid year much more smoothly than Michigan did, but there will still be a boat load of unknowns for both teams heading into this game.  U-M and U-W rank dead even in returning production at #55 and #54 respectively, but I think it’s the 91% returning production on the offensive side of the ball that allows Washington to make plays that end up being the difference.  
Michigan 27 Washington 30, 1-1

vs. Northern Illinois: 116th Overall, 121st Offense, 97th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 30.3, Michigan win probability: 97%

PREDICTION: By the third game week of the regular season, we should be able to clearly see the identity that both Josh Gattis and Mike MacDonald will have instilled into their squads.  Strengths will have emerged.  Weaknesses will have been identified and hopefully corrected.  This is absolutely a spot where we should see Michigan put its best foot forward and play a complete football game against a team that doesn’t project to be very strong.
Michigan 45 NIU 17, 2-1

vs. Rutgers: 83rd Overall, 90th Offense, 63rd Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 19.0, Michigan win probability: 92%

PREDICTION: In 2020, Greg Schiano showed that he can be an immediate difference maker for Rutgers.  Michigan famously needed 3 overtime periods to defeat the Scarlet Knights last year as Cade McNamara took the reins of the offense.  I have no reason to doubt that Rutgers continues to improve this year.  Rutgers comes to Ann Arbor for the Big Ten opener, and is capable of catching the Wolverines looking ahead to Wisconsin.  If Michigan appears unprepared for this one, I expect the volume to increase from the portions of the fanbase who are already rooting for changes at the top.
Michigan 33 Rutgers 24, 3-1

@ Wisconsin: 6th Overall, 32nd Offense, 2nd Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Wisconsin by 4.1, Michigan win probability: 29%

PREDICTION: In the past two seasons, the Badgers have delivered the harsh reality that Michigan’s team was not as good as expected.  The 2019 game in Madison was over in the first half, and had alumni questioning the team’s mental toughness.  In 2020, at the Big House, it was immediately clear that the Wolverines were not capable of righting the ship, even though Wisconsin was struggling to contain their covid issues.  This season, Michigan again faces off with Paul Chryst and Co. early in the Big Ten season.  This year, however, we will have seen the Badgers against Penn State (Sep. 4th) and Notre Dame the previous week.  I don’t expect Michigan to win in Madison, but I will be measuring the program’s leadership and direction based on their performance in this game.
Michigan 24 Wisconsin 30, 3-2

@ Nebraska: 32nd Overall, 46th Offense, 29th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 5.9, Michigan win probability: 47%

PREDICTION: The SP+ model has significant conflict surrounding the 6th game of the season in Lincoln against the Cornhuskers.  Michigan is ranked 15 slots ahead of Nebraska, and would be projected to win by 5.9 points on a neutral field.  However, their preseason win probably from Connely’s Big Ten preview has this as a tossup, and even a slight edge to Nebraska.  Scott Frost could potentially be soaring high at 5-1 headed into this one because Oklahoma is the only team currently favored to beat Nebraska in the first half of their schedule.  However, if the Huskers do trip up early in the season Frost’s hot seat will again take center stage and another season could spiral out of control.  This matchup is circled on my calendar as the pivotal moment for the 2021 Michigan football season.  You already know I am optimistic.
Michigan 42 Nebraska 23, 4-2

vs. Northwestern: 76th Overall, 123rd Offense, 12th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 17.3, Michigan win probability: 86%

PREDICTION: Northwestern might be the program that best capitalized on the chaos of the 2020 season.  The Wildcats won the West division with a 6-1 regular season record.  They also gave Justin Fields and the rest of the Buckeyes fits in the Big Ten Championship game.  Unfortunately for Pat Fitzgerald, they rank dead last in FBS, 129th, in returning production going into 2021.  We’ll see how Northwestern can reload from a talent perspective, but I expect them to play their best game in Ann Arbor, especially defensively.  I think this one will come down to a few critical plays to be made in the 4th quarter.  The Wolverines’ playmakers must answer the call and step up in a big moment.
Michigan 24 Northwestern 20, 5-2

@ Michigan State: 51st Overall, 82nd Offense, 17th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 11.7, Michigan win probability: 68%

PREDICTION: This rivalry game has moved back into the second half of the season for 2021.  In the Harbaugh era, the Michigan State game has served as a statement platform in each season.  In 2020, Mel Tucker announced his arrival, and bought himself some patience from the sparty fanbase, by embarrassing the Wolverines in Ann Arbor.  This reversal from Harbaugh’s 2019 farewell statement to Mark Dantonio made last year’s catastrophe even more shocking.  The 2021 chapter of this rivalry will be another golden opportunity for one program or the other to put an exclamation point on the series.  I would imagine Mike Hart’s name will hit the news cycle around this time of year, also.
Michigan 31 Michigan State 21, 6-2

vs. Indiana: 28th Overall, 33rd Offense, 32nd Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 4.5, Michigan win probability: 58%

PREDICTION: The final stretch of the season kicks off with a major test in Michael Penix and the Indiana Hoosiers.  Tom Allen had the Hoosiers in position to compete for the Big Ten East crown last year, and this well-balanced team is a legitimate part of the conversation in the preseason this year.  By the time they come to Ann Arbor, Indiana will have already played Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State, and non-conference giant Cincinnati.  If the Hoosiers are still in the hunt for the East, then this will make for a titanic showdown.  I expect them to drop two or three of those early contests, and I think both Indiana and Michigan will be trying to claw back into the race with a quality November victory.
Michigan 25 Indiana 17, 7-2

@ Penn State: 10th Overall, 22nd Offense, 7th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: PSU by 2.9, Michigan win probability: 33%

PREDICTION: By November 13th, the 2021 Big Ten pecking order will be much more clear.  If the Nittany Lions are making a push for the Big Ten East at this point, then the White Out atmosphere in Happy Valley will be a figurative Mount Everest for Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines to attack.  However, I don’t think Penn State will stay in the race to this point in the season.  James Franklin’s crew starts the season in Madison against the Badgers, and will have also seen Auburn and  Indiana at home, with road trips to Iowa and Ohio State by the time the Wolverines pull into town.  This will be an important game for both coaches in terms of establishing control of the series, and I think it will be a defensive slug fest.
Michigan 20 Penn State 16, 8-2

@ Maryland: 38th Overall, 54th Offense, 41st Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 9.1, Michigan win probability: 51%

PREDICTION: In the 2021 11th game trap spot that has been traditionally reserved for Indiana, Michigan will travel to College Park to take on Maryland.  In the rollercoaster year of 2020, Maryland may have had the highest highs and lowest lows.  Things looked bleak after the Terrapins were blown out by Northwestern to open the season, but they rebounded to beat Minnesota at home and Penn State in Happy Valley.   Then covid struck, causing a 3 week shutdown, followed by losses to Indiana and Rutgers.  In terms of SP+, I think Maryland is still a load of questions marks and unknowns.  We will have a much clearer idea of whether Mike Locksley has things rolling or not by November.  I expect we’ll see a result that is reminiscent of pre-covid days. 
Michigan 39 Maryland 14, 9-2

vs. Ohio State: 4th Overall, 1st Offense, 27th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: OSU by 8.2, Michigan win probability: 34%

PREDICTION: Here at the crescendo of the preview, it’s my duty to remind you that I tend to lean optimistic in my preseason picks.  If things play out similarly to how I’ve written here, Michigan would be 9-2, on a 6-game win streak returning to the Big House for The Game, likely with Big Ten title implications on the line.  Ryan Day and the Buckeyes are coming off a National Championship Game appearance, where their biggest question marks are: 1) how closely can CJ Stroud and/or Quinn Ewers replicate Justin Fields’ success, and 2) will an average-ish defense be good enough for Ohio State to make another title run?  The Buckeyes are still loaded with talent, and they will have a handful of key personnel advantages when they play Michigan.  All that said, I still think Michigan will put their best foot forward in this battle.  My main prediction for this game is that afterward we’ll be talking about the 2 or 3 plays that made all the difference, and whether or not we believe the program is moving in the right direction.
Michigan 21 Ohio State 31, 9-3
3rd Place in B1G Ten East

Dax Hill is a prime candidate for a breakout season on Michigan’s defense. Can first-time Defensive Coordinator Mike MacDonald put all the pieces together quickly enough for Michigan to challenge in the division in 2021?
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By the Numbers: 2020 Michigan Football Season Preview

Young WRs like Mike Sainristil must step up for the Michigan offense during an uncertain 2020 season.

Every football offseason feels like it takes forever to end. In 2020, this particular football offseason dwarfs all the rest. After the cancellation of spring ball, and the postponement then revival of the 2020 fall season, I cannot wait to return to discussions about players, stats, and game results again. This week I will kickoff the return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers content with a game-by-game preview of the 2020 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbers articles and podcasts I will compile, review, and summarize data and metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance, and try to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.

The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system was meant to be predictive for beating the odds against Vegas, studying the Five Factors is useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games. Here are his B1G West & B1G East preseason preview articles.

What is SP+
SP+ is the tempo and opponent adjusted college football analytical model developed by Bill Connelly for Football Outsiders (he is now at ESPN). SP+ is based around the core concepts of the Five Factors of winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers.  The resulting metric is expressed in adjusted points per game, as compared to the average CFB team.
Full Explanation 

Previous Results (2018-19)

Over the past two seasons, Connelly’s SP+ preseason predictions correctly selected the winner in 22 of 24 regular season Michigan games. The SP+ weekly projections were correct in 24 of 26 Michigan games, including a perfect 13-for-13 in 2019.

In my season preview posts in 2018 & 2019, I correctly picked the winner in 19 of 24 regular season Michigan games. In the weekly previews, I have been correct in 21 of 25 games.

Michigan 2020 SP+ Preseason Ranking

Overall – 17th, 14.0
Offense – 38th, 31.9
Defense – 14th, 17.8

2020 Regular Season Schedule

@ Minnesota: 16th Overall, 10th Offense, 44th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Minnesota by 0.3 – This matchup reminds me of how SP+ saw the week 1 toss up on the road versus Notre Dame in 2018.

PREDICTION: This will be the third consecutive season that Michigan starts with a night game in week 1. Because everything in 2020 is crazy, this one will be in front of almost no fans in the stands (families of the players only). ESPN College Gameday will also be in Minneapolis. I think the offense will be able to move the ball, but the key for Josh Gattis will be cashing in Michigan’s opportunities for touchdowns. Defensively, the Wolverines will be in trouble if they are unable to convert pressure into sacks against QB Tanner Morgan and WR Rashod Bateman.
Michigan 34 Minnesota 30, 1-0

vs. Michigan State: 51st Overall, 109th Offense, 13th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Michigan by 10.0 – Before the games are played, the SP+ system relies on returning production and past recruiting. The metrics haven’t seen what Mel Tucker’s Spartans will bring in 2020, and neither have I.

PREDICTION: This game is in the Big House for the second consecutive year. The main difference between the Michigan football program and Michigan State football program since the Wolverines’ 44-10 mauling last November is the lack of time on task this past offseason will be an even larger challenge for Mel Tucker’s staff as they transition. I am sure they will play with a lot of passion, and rivalry games can be weird, but this will be lopsided by the end.
Michigan 31 Michigan State 14, 2-0

@ Indiana: 32nd Overall, 35th Offense, 30th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Michigan by 4.1 – Tom Allen has instilled a tough attitude in Bloomington, and SP+ recognizes balance between the offense and defense that has not been common for the Hoosiers.

PREDICTION: I’ve heard this game identified as a potential trap game for Michigan coming off a rivalry game, and perhaps looking ahead to Wisconsin. While that is possible, I think the Hoosiers will have Michigan’s full attention. The Wolverines looked sharp last November on the road (the week before OSU). I expect Michigan will have some early season offensive hiccups corrected by week 3. This could become a shootout if QB Michael Penix is extending plays with his scrambling ability .
Michigan 35 Indiana 20, 3-0

vs. Wisconsin: 6th Overall, 19th Offense, 3rd Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Wisconsin by 7.7 – The Badgers’ brand of football includes efficient offense and stout defense each year. The SP+ system will consistently reward that efficiency.

PREDICTION: Wisconsin has to replace a star running back and their best wide receiver who both entered the NFL draft. The starting quarterback may still be sidelined for this game after suffering a foot injury that required surgery during fall camp. But the Badgers reload every year in the trenches on both sides of the ball, where it matters most. This will be the first top-tier defense that Joe Milton will see, and I expect a difficult outing for the offense. The Wolverines will also miss 111,000 fans and the home field advantage they typically provide in this one.
Michigan 17 Wisconsin 23, 3-1

@ Rutgers: 109th Overall, 119th Offense, 75th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Michigan by 24.2 – Greg Schiano’s return to New Jersey comes in a tough year for new coaches. Rutgers will improve on defense throughout the year, though.

PREDICTION: I worry this mid-November trip to Piscataway will produce a pretty flat performance. The Wolverines will need to manufacture their own energy and adrenaline. While I think Michigan will have to navigate some rough patches of play, the talent gap between Michigan and Rutgers is too wide for me to be overly concerned.
Michigan 41 Rutgers 10, 4-1

vs. Penn State: 5th Overall, 8th Offense, 10th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Penn State by 8.3 – PSU welcomes back a lot of offensive production. Time will tell whether or not they can replace some major star power on defense.

PREDICTION: This game is the second of the 2020 season that Michigan will sorely miss the Big House atmosphere. Under Jim Harbaugh, Michigan has outscored Penn State 91-17 in Ann Arbor. I believe Don Brown and the defense will correct some of the big play mistakes from last year in State College. With this game being played during Thanksgiving weekend (the normal OSU weekend), I’ll be looking at run game Success Rate as a key indicator of who has the inside track leading up to this game.
Michigan 27 Penn State 21, 5-1

vs. Maryland: 84th Overall, 98th Offense, 69th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Michigan by 18.2 – The first December football game at Michigan Stadium will be Senior Day. Maryland’s preseason rankings are below Power 5 average in all facets.

PREDICTION: The final home game for 2020 really highlights some of the folly of trying to predict the 2020 college football season. Right now in mid-October, on paper, I should tell you this will be an old school beat down. If (that is a BIG IF) all the key players are healthy and available, I believe that will be the case. On top of all that, you can add December weather forecasting in Michigan to the mix. The information we have available currently points to a fun day for Michigan fans.
Michigan 51 Maryland 6, 6-1

@ Ohio State: 1st Overall, 2nd Offense, 2nd Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Ohio State by 16.2 – Right now, SP+ would favor the Buckeyes over both 5-0 Clemson and over 4-0 Alabama by 1.7 points. It increases to 7.6 over Georgia, who is currently 4th and is coming off a 17-point loss to the Crimson Tide.

PREDICTION: I’ve used this space for two years to spout my optimism about Michigan’s return to level footing in the rivalry. I can still sell myself on the logic: The 2016 game was robbery. Harbaugh’s worst performing team in 2017 probably should have beaten the Buckeyes. Some very flawed teams from the Hoke era were within a play or two of beating Ohio State. However, Ohio State has somehow managed to improve as they navigated a coaching change and transitioned to a transfer quarterback. They are doing something different in Columbus. It will take a truly heroic effort from the Wolverines to win in the Horseshoe. The 2020 season will certainly continue to be crazy. Let’s hope Michigan puts an insane cap on it this December.
Michigan 24 Ohio State 37, 6-2
2nd Place in B1G Ten East

Cam McGrone will need to lead a herculean effort in Columbus to break the streak of losses to OSU.