Tag: S&P+

Michigan enters the 2023 season as the two-time defending B1G Ten champions.  The Wolverines were able to prove the 2021 season was no fluke by traveling to Columbus and pulling away from the Buckeyes for their first road win in The Game since 2000.  Blake Corum headlines a list of players returning who could have been drafted by the NFL last April.  Now, it’s August so with sky-high expectations we kick off the 2023 return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with this game-by-game preview of the 2023 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbers articles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.

The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system is meant to be predictive for making educated bets, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games.

What is SP+

SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.
2023 Preseason SP+ Rankings (ESPN+)
Original Explanation (SB Nation)

PAST RESULTS

When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record, and that of the SP+ projections, since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com in 2018.  

Connelly’s SP+ preseason projections are amazingly accurate in picking the straight up winners over the past 5 seasons (80% correct).  Against the spread, the SP+ results improve once there is 2023 game data available to be fed into the model each week.  The game week SP+ projections correctly pick the winner against the spread in Michigan games 55% of the time. 

Historically in this space, my By the Numbers preseason predictions have been correct 76% of the time straight up, and 52% against the spread.  The data are pretty clear also that I have a harder time adjusting away from my preseason notions than the SP+ model does.  Once we get into game week predictions, my accuracy only improves by ~4% points once we have seen the Wolverines on the field.

Predicting Michigan Games in Preseason (2018-22)

Predicting Michigan Games on Game Week (2018-22)

SP+ Projections & By the Numbers Predictions

Michigan 2023 SP+ Preseason Ranking

As mentioned above, Michigan has the highest possible preseason expectations after reaching the College Football Playoff, but losing in the semifinals both of the past two seasons.  The returning production on offense keeps the Wolverines in the top ten in Offense SP+ rankings.  Their jump all the way up to 4th in the preseason Defense SP+ rankings really stands out, though.  Together the units combine to place Michigan in the 3rd Overall spot with Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, & Alabama all within 1.1 points of one another.

2023 Regular Season Schedule

vs. East Carolina: 87th Overall, 93rd Offense, 81st Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 37.3

PREDICTION: The non-conference slate is relatively weak for a second consecutive year.  Of the three opponents from outside the B1G Ten, the Pirates hold the highest preseason SP+ rating.  ECU has enjoyed moderate success in the American Athletic Conference in five years under Mike Houston.  While there will be some big plays from both sides, Michigan’s offensive firepower will overwhelm the Pirates near halftime.
Michigan 45 ECU 13, 1-0

vs. UNLV: 110th Overall, 100th Offense, 112th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 43.2

PREDICTION: Typically in coach speak, a team makes a significant jump from the first game week to the second.  I expect the Wolverines to clean up a handful of near misses from their first game.  The underwhelming Rebels will be somewhat unlucky opponents during a much cleaner performance from Michigan.
Michigan 52 UNLV 6, 2-0

vs. Bowling Green: 129th Overall, 105th Offense, 130th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 49.0

PREDICTION: According to preseason SP+, the Falcons are the weakest opponent on Michigan’s 2023 regular season schedule.  We already know this game has been slotted into the 7:30 PM slot on Big Ten Network, so maybe the night game atmosphere will provide some electricity.  I am expecting a big margin of victory here, but we definitely have to keep an eye on whether or not the Wolverines allow themselves to become overconfident and sluggish. 
Michigan 48 BGSU 7, 3-0

vs. Rutgers: 77th Overall, 99th Offense, 60th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 34.3

PREDICTION: Week 4 brings another opponent ranked in the bottom half of the nation in SP+ as the B1G 10 season kicks off against Rutgers.  Consistently, Greg Schiano has the Scarlet Knights well prepared for the Michigan game, especially his defensive unit.  This matchup is highly likely to expose some offensive flaws for the Wolverines that we may not know about yet.  In the end, the Wolverines will make the key plays they need in the 2nd half to win by two scores.
Michigan 31 Rutgers 16, 4-0

@ Nebraska: 59th Overall, 68th Offense, 38th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 24.9

PREDICTION: The first B1G Ten road game lands in Lincoln, Nebraska.  New head coach Matt Rhule inherits a program that has some talent on both sides of the ball, but could never find the missing link under Scott Frost.  The Wolverines cruised past Nebraska in Ann Arbor 34-3 last year, but  I expect this game to look and feel much more like the 2021 edition.  The Huskers could be 3-1 or 4-0 heading in and will be looking to make a major program statement at Michigan’s expense.
Michigan 34 Nebraska 13, 5-0

@ Minnesota: 27th Overall, 57th Offense, 9th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 15.8

PREDICTION: P.J. Fleck has raised the bar for the Golden Gophers’ fans.  They are consistently a tough match up in B1G West games, although they haven’t yet broken through and qualified for a trip to Indianapolis.  Even if Michigan is firing on all cylinders at this point in the season, a 2nd consecutive B1G Ten road trip against a quality opponent will be a legitimate test for Jim Harbaugh’s crew.  The Wolverines are the better team, but they will have to overcome some adversity to win this one in Minneapolis.
Michigan 31 Minnesota 14, 6-0

vs. Indiana: 83rd Overall, 71st Offense, 100th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 34.8

PREDICTION: The back half of the regular season starts with Tom Allen’s Hoosiers visiting Ann Arbor.  Indiana again finds themselves in a spot on Michigan’s schedule that could present a trap game risk where a rivalry game is looming on deck.  These risks were much scarier when the Hoosiers were sporting a defense ranked better than 100th in SP+, but Indiana rebuilt their 2023 roster via the transfer portal so the range of potential outcomes here could be pretty wide.  

Michigan 42 Indiana 14, 7-0

@ Michigan State: 46th Overall, 62nd Offense, 30th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 22.3

PREDICTION: Michigan’s final game in the month of October is their third road game in four weeks.  It also happens to be a short trip to East Lansing to take on the Spartans in their 2023 super bowl equivalent game.  To avoid disaster, the Wolverines will have to eliminate major mistakes and create turnovers versus MSU’s less-talented offense.  Getting off to a fast start and taking the Spartan crowd out of the game would be a big help, but if this game stays close then Michigan will be forced to win another dog fight.
Michigan 31 Michigan State 20, 8-0

vs. Purdue: 58th Overall, 53rd Offense, 55th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 24.6

PREDICTION: Michigan returns home after the bye week in a rematch of the 2022 B1G Championship game against Purdue.  Jeff Brohm left for his alma mater Louisville, so rookie head coach Ryan Walters will lead the Boilermakers.  The preseason SP+ ratings place the Boilers almost exactly in the middle of FBS,  but I think Walters will overachieve in year one, especially on defense.  This game could worry some folks at the Big House because it may stay close all the way into the 4th quarter.
Michigan 30 Purdue 17, 9-0

@ Penn State: 6th Overall, 22nd Offense, 5th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 5.6

PREDICTION: Perhaps the biggest TV scheduling break for the Wolverines  comes in Week 11.  FOX has already penciled the potential top-ten battle into the noon slot.  This allows Michigan to avoid the White Out night game atmosphere at Beaver Stadium.  On the field, the Nittany Lions are loaded with talent in many of the same positions as the Wolverines.  They have two great running backs, and several great playmakers on defense.  For Michigan, this game will be decided by the quarterback comparison.  I like the odds that J.J. McCarthy will step up and outshine PSU’s sophomore Drew Allar.
Michigan 27 PSU 17, 10-0

@ Maryland: 41st Overall, 47th Offense, 27th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 19.3

PREDICTION: The Wolverines will visit old friend Josh Gattis in Week 12 as Michigan travels to College Park to take on the Terrapins.  Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has big-time playmaker ability that can help keep pace with Michigan’s offense.  However, he often makes big mistakes in key moments, especially when under pressure.  This game will be a great test for the Wolverines’ secondary as they attempt to bottle up a “Speed in Space” offense.  
Michigan 35 Maryland 21, 11-0

vs. Ohio State: 2nd Overall, 1st Offense, 12th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: OSU by 0.2

PREDICTION: As far as we can reasonably predict in the preseason, The Game is shaping up to be another clash of B1G Ten & national title contenders.  On defense, the Buckeyes will likely continue to improve in year two under coordinator Jim Knowles, but they will again be forced to sell out to try and stop Michigan’s run game.  Offensively, OSU boasts the most prolific wide receiver room in the country, and nobody is really that close.  Wolverines’ defensive coordinator Jesse Minter will have to use every coverage look and any creative pressure packages he can conjure to slow the Buckeyes’ first-year starting quarterback: either Kyle McCord or Devin Brown.  
Michigan 39 Ohio State 33, 12-0

1st Place in B1G Ten East

Sophomore cornerback Will Johnson emerged on the national scene with two interceptions in the B1G Ten Championship game vs. Purdue in 2022.  This season he will be expected to lock down nearly every opponent for defensive coordinator Jesse Minter.

Michigan is looking to follow up on perhaps their best season since the 1997 National Championship. We endured a “will he, won’t he” with Jim Harbaugh and the NFL. We’re also just starting a QB battle between Cade McNamara and JJ McCarthy that threatens to split the fan base in half. But now it’s Labor Day weekend, and that means we kick off the 2022 return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with a game-by-game preview of the 2022 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbers articles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.

The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system is meant to be predictive for beating the odds against Vegas, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games.

What is SP+

SP+ is the tempo and opponent adjusted college football  analytical model developed by Bill Connelly for Football Outsiders (he is now at ESPN).  SP+ is based around the core concepts of the Five Factors of winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers.  The resulting metric is expressed in adjusted points per game, as compared to the average CFB team. 

Original Explanation

2022 SP+ Rankings (Google Sheets)

PAST RESULTS

When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record, and that of the SP+ projections, since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com in 2018.  

Connelly’s SP+ preseason projections were amazingly accurate in picking the straight up winners in 2018 & 2019, missing only twice (2018 picked MSU & 2019 picked Michigan over PSU).  In 2019, as Connelly updated his model through the season for Game Week projections, SP+ correctly picked the straight up winner in all 13 games for Michigan.  Just like almost everything in 2020, college football projections were a total crapshoot, even for the best in the business.  In 2021 the SP+ preseason model was off in their preseason evaluation of Michigan, including 1-11 against the spread.  That can be forgiven since nearly everyone was surprised by Michigan’s 2021 Championship turnaround.

Like most Michigan fans, I have often been a victim of preseason optimism.  The 2018 season was also a painful learning experience while riding too high on the Revenge Tour.  While I picked the correct outcome in 10 out of 12 games, I was bad at predicting the margins.  That led to a 3-9 inaugural season against the spread.    In 2019 I bounced back against the spread to 10-3, and followed up with a 5-1 record in the 2020 COVID season.  That one miss in 2020 was my worst ever, in Game #2 vs. MSU.  I cooled off a touch in 2021 with an 8-6 record against the spread in my game week predictions.

Predicting Michigan Games in Preseason (2018-21)

Predicting Michigan Games on Game Week (2018-21)

SP+ Projections & By the Numbers Predictions

Michigan 2022 SP+ Preseason Ranking

Overall – 6th, 21.4
Offense – 6th, 39.9
Defense – 17th, 18.6

The Wolverines’ SP+ ranking is in alignment with our preseason expectations.  The defense looks like it should be good, but maybe not great.  The offense will likely be asked to carry the team multiple times in 2022, particularly in the first half of the season.

2022 Regular Season Schedule

vs. Colorado State: 96th Overall, 109th Offense, 71st Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 31.5

PREDICTION: The weakness of the non-conference slate in 2022 has gotten a lot of publicity as Michigan’s season draws near.  Colorado State brings the SP+ 96th ranked team to Ann Arbor, and they are the highest ranked non-con opponents…by ~30 spots.  I think the Rams will finish the season much higher than 96th, but this game will see the Wolverines trying to make a statement that last year was no fluke.

Michigan 49 Colorado State 14, 1-0

vs. Hawaii: 123rd Overall, 101st Offense, 129th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 43.1

PREDICTION: It’s tough to make too much out of this mismatch.  Hawaii always has an uphill climb with the logistics challenges involved with flying a football team across an ocean for half your season.  This season new head coach Timmy Chang will be given plenty of leeway to show what he’s capable of.  I expect this Week 2 night game matchup with Michigan to be pretty lopsided for the Wolverines.  

Michigan 56 Hawaii 9, 2-0

vs. UConn: 128th Overall, 129th Offense, 122nd Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 48.8

PREDICTION: Michigan might experience an emotional let down in Week 3.  UConn comes into Ann Arbor with their new head coach Jim Mora.  If the Huskies are 0-2 and look as listless as they did in 2021, this one will struggle to crack 100K in Big House attendance.  Let’s hope the apathy is limited to the fan base, and the team is not caught looking ahead to the B1G season opener.

Michigan 37 UConn 10, 3-0

vs. Maryland: 54th Overall, 29th Offense, 89th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 19.8

PREDICTION: This game has already lulled Michigan fans and local media to sleep.  The preseason narrative is all about the weak “September Schedule” and the first four walkover games before a road trip to Iowa City.  That is a big mistake.  Maryland’s wide receivers are in the same tier as Michigan’s & Ohio States.  If the Terps can protect Taulia Tagovailoa, and can also protect the football, this game could be a shoot out.

Michigan 48 Maryland 39, 4-0

@ Iowa: 27th Overall, 62nd Offense, 8th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 5.6

PREDICTION: The Wolverines have experienced multiple nightmares at Kinnick versus the Hawkeyes.  Both teams could be 4-0 leading into this rematch of the 2021 B1G Championship Game.  If that happens, FOX probably chooses this game for their noon slot.  That would be a very good break for Michigan.  Regardless of time slot, I expect this game will be a low-scoring rock fight. Bet the under as soon as it’s available.

Michigan 20 Iowa 13, 5-0

@ Indiana: 86th Overall, 98th Offense, 68th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 23.9

PREDICTION: Indiana’s program has been problematic for Michigan under Tom Allen’s leadership.  I think this 2nd consecutive road trip will create some fatigue for the Wolverines, and the Hoosiers will do their best to duplicate the Iowa defensive game plan.  In the end, this may be the game where we find out which players will step up in the biggest moments for Michigan.  Initially, I am looking to Ronnie Bell and DJ Turner to make the critical plays in high leverage situations.

Michigan 31 Indiana 17, 6-0

vs. Penn State: 13th Overall, 48th Offense, 6th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 7.4

PREDICTION: The Nittany Lions travel to the Big House to kick off the 2nd half of the schedule.  Traditionally, Jim Harbaugh’s teams have handled James Franklin’s program with ease in home games.  The 2020 COVID year was a glaring exception.  Penn State’s defense could keep this from getting to blow out status, but I think the Wolverines will stay in control for almost the entire game to stay unbeaten.

Michigan 29 Penn State 17, 7-0

vs. Michigan State: 15th Overall, 20th Offense, 20th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 7.8

PREDICTION: I am mostly a believer in Mel Tucker’s ability to put together a dangerous team from the transfer portal.  I expect the 2022 battle for the Paul Bunyan trophy to resemble a heavyweight fight.  Both sides will land some haymakers.  The biggest advantage for Michigan will be talent in the secondary.  I expect to see the Wolverines make 1 or 2 huge plays in the 4th quarter, with perhaps another Andrel Anthony sighting.

Michigan 41 Michigan State 33, 8-0

@ Rutgers: 80th Overall, 96th Offense, 56th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 21.6

PREDICTION: Plain and simple, Greg Schiano’s defensive scheme gives Michigan problems.  The Wolverines got out to a good start against the Scarlet Knights in 2021, but their lack of linebacker depth allowed Rutgers to hang out longer than Maize & Blue faithful were comfortable with.  This might be the BTN night game, on the road in Piscataway.  I think Schiano finds a way to keep it close again.

Michigan 30 Rutgers 20, 9-0

vs. Nebraska: 44th Overall, 53rd Offense, 33rd Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 15.6

PREDICTION: The crystal ball gets pretty cloudy when trying to predict November games from the couch in preseason.  Nebraska is a total wild card.  History says that Scott Frost will put together a very solid football team.  But, they will find ways to lose football games.  In a lot of ways they remind me of my favorite NFL team.  I am just assuming the Cornhuskers get it figured out well enough to give this game a medium-sized profile.  I also expect Frost to find a way to choke away a heartbreaker. 

Michigan 24 Nebraska 23, 10-0

vs. Illinois: 79th Overall, 104th Offense, 42nd Defense

PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 26.3

PREDICTION: In 2022, the Fighting Illini have drawn the sandwich November trap game slot in Michigan’s schedule.  If the Wolverines find themselves undefeated and in the hunt for a B1G Championship and CFP berth, then the most important question will be whether the players can focus on anything other than The Game.  This will be Senior Night, and player leadership will be crucial in keeping Illinois & their running game in the crosshairs.   

Michigan 42 Illinois 21, 11-0

@ Ohio State: 3rd Overall, 1st Offense, 15th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: OSU by 10.8

PREDICTION: Ohio State’s offense is probably going to be BETTER than that Death Star from 2021.  CJ Stroud, Jackson Smith-Njigba, & Trevyon Henderson were superstars last year, and they will all be battling for Heisman trophy consideration by this point in the season.  The bigger questions reside on the Buckeyes’ coaching staff.  Has Ryan Day’s 1-1 record versus Michigan sewn any lasting doubt?  Can Jim Knowles right the ship on defense in one season?  I expect the Wolverines will have a number of chances to win their 2nd consecutive game versus OSU for the first time since 2000.  However, in Columbus, I am bracing myself for something ridiculous to happen.

Michigan 39 Ohio State 45, 11-1
2nd Place in B1G Ten East