Tag: Michigan State

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Michigan 6 Michigan State 15 – Game 9 Recap

GAME 9 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 6-15, Michigan State by 9 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 17.1 (-26.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 8 (-17)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 9 RECAP vs. Michigan State

Problems at every offensive position. That’s on the coordinator and the head coach. They didn’t install a system that maximized their talent. They didn’t teach what they installed well enough to make it work. They didn’t adapt fast enough. They now look lost. There are plenty of numbers that rub salt into the wound. Michigan nearly got shut out by the 68th ranked SP+ defense, at home, in a rivalry game. That’s an unacceptable failure that players and fans alike do not deserve.

Defensively, this is another game where a mediocre performance by the defense slides under the radar because they are light years ahead of the offense. However, what if I had told Jay Hill that they would give up 58 yards rushing in the 3rd quarter alone? They allowed another 10+ minute drive in a game that the offense needed life support. The defense is capable of playing championship level football, but we still don’t see it consistently. I would keep the coordinator, the scheme, and all the players. But they are not blameless in this season, or in this game.

Speaking of not blameless, another missed FG set the tone for this game.

Kicking is hard, I am not going to pile on to very specific players. The performance and production is just not good enough for this program.

This problem didn’t start tonight, and it probably won’t end tonight. How did Michigan end up with this coaching staff? How has the previous era that culminated in the 2023 National Championship collapsed to being humiliated by a Sparty team for their first Big Ten win? That level of existential failure needs to be excised from the program. The biggest long term problem right now is: who is the leader that can and will put the program under the microscope and cast out everything and everyone who needs to go? We’ll see, hopefully sooner rather than later. Go Blue

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Michigan 49 Michigan State 0 – Game 8 Recap

GAME 8 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 49-0, Michigan by 49 over Michigan State
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 19.5 (+29.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 27 (+22)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 8 RECAP vs. Michigan State

Another team decided to create a game plan to stop the Michigan run game. While Michigan managed to hit the magic number 50% success rate on the ground, the Spartans held the Wolverines to 2.8 yards per run play (stats removed once the score was out of hand). Fortunately for Michigan, JJ McCarthy may be the best QB in the country. McCarthy had no problem throwing the team on his back and slaughtering the Spartan defense, finishing 21-27 for 287 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2+ quarters of action. Colston Loveland caught 2 of those touchdowns on twin 22-yard receptions, while AJ Barner and Roman Wilson also found the end zone. JJ and the starters were so efficient that Michigan’s depth players were able to play almost the entire second half.

On the other side of the ball, Jesse Minter and Steve Clinkscale finally put the finishing touches on a shutout for the Michigan defense. For the second time in B1G Ten play, the defensive unit outscored the opponent’s offensive unit thanks to another Pick-Six by captain Mike Sainristil in the 3rd quarter. Linebacker Junior Colson had a great bounce back game, leading the team in tackles with 11. Edge player Braiden McGregor led in the tackles-for-loss (TFL) column with 1.5. Eight different players made a play in the Spartan backfield as the Wolverines accumulated 8 TFLs total on the night.

All of the special teams units combined to execute cleanly with no major mistakes, which was the primary objective against an overmatched rival. The main item of note was that Tyler Morris seems to have seized control of the punt return role. He also made a good decision to field a bouncing punt, and did so cleanly and avoided taking a major hit in the process. I look forward to future explosive plays from Morris as a returner.

A road game against a bitter rival amidst major off-field distractions posed a major threat to derail Michigan’s special season to this point. Instead, the Wolverines seemed even more locked in and focused on the task at hand. It was another dominant performance in a season full of similar games against overwhelmed foes. This one was the most complete decimation to date, and I am glad they saved such a beat down for Sparty. Next is a bye week to rest and heal for the pivotal November stretch of B1G Ten games. Onward!

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Michigan 33 MSU 37 – Game 8 Recap

GAME 8 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 33-37, MSU by 4 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 3.5 (-7.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 10 (-14)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 8 RECAP @ MSU

It was incomplete. All of it. Any facet of this game that you look at, there is a lot more good to talk about than there is bad. But, Michigan didn’t finish. The game plans on both sides were solid, but didn’t adjust once the Wolverines were up 16 in the 3rd quarter and MSU had to empty the clip.

Offensively, Michigan got off to a rocket start by surprising everyone with a first-half passing clinic. Andrel Anthony burst onto the scene with a 93-yard touchdown, and Cade McNamara was pin-point accurate.

When the Wolverines pushed it to a 30-14 lead, I assumed Michigan would salt this away. The only questions was whether Haskins or Corum would be the one hammering. Somehow, that didn’t happen. This was the first negative EPA run performance of 2021, and it deserves a much closer look. There would be a lot on this film to be excited about offensively, if Paul B. was on the bus back to Ann Arbor. But…he ain’t.

It was sickening to listen to the FOX broadcast team highlight Mel Tucker’s pregame quote: “…body blows…In the championship round, we think they’ll flinch…” It was sickening because it was happening in front of our eyes. Defenders got out of the run gaps, and Kenneth Walker made us all pay. Interceptions were there to be had, yet hit the turf instead.

When a 2nd half lead evaporates, I always want to see under the hood on defense first. Regardless of the detail, the Wolverines could not limit the big plays the way Indiana and Nebraska did previously to the Spartans.

On special teams, Jake Moody gets a huge tip of my cap. He was 4/4 on field goals, including repeatedly hitting them at the end of the 1st half when Mel Tucker tried to ice him with all three timeouts. Additionally, the MSU return game was satisfied with Fair Catches and Touchbacks. Brad Robbins mishandled a punt snap (yikes!), but the defense managed to cover for him.

AJ Henning was solid returning the ball, but really hurt field position in the 2nd quarter when he let a punt bounce and roll. Still work to do in all three phases.

There will be a lot of bluster and big talking this week. Michigan needs to get right against Indiana and play well in all 3 phases. No Michigan team should ever shrivel in the face of adversity. Still a lot to play for. We’ll see how this version of the Wolverines manages to dig deep. Onward!

2021-08-MSU-37-UM-33-Final-StatsDownload
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By the Numbers: Game 8 @ Michigan State

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan handled their business by avoiding the classic trap game coming out of the bye week.  The Wolverines dominated statistically en route to a 33-7 victory.

NEXT UP: vs. Michigan State: 21st, 13.6

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 3.5, Michigan Win Probability 58%
There was a mild flare up online when the line for this game settled at Michigan (-4.5).  For yet another week, the Vegas spread is very close to the SP+ projection.  Through 7 games in 2021, Bill Connelly’s model is 5-2 against the opening spread in Michigan games.

Michigan Offense (18th) vs. Michigan State Defense (12th) 

When Michigan has the ball, this game will feel like the prototypical U-M vs MSU rivalry game.  The Wolverines are going to run the ball inside and out, and the Spartans are well aware of this.  For large portions of the contest I am sure this will be a gritty battle in the trenches.  I have very little doubt that Josh Gattis will basically say “here we come, try to stop us” as a base strategy.  Despite all that, the game may largely be decided on the handful of plays that Michigan State sells out to stop the Wolverine running game, and Josh Gattis dials up his counterattack.  Cade McNamara must be efficient and seize those opportunities for big chunk plays down the field.  

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Michigan State Offense (53rd)

Michigan State’s offense has proven to be explosive in 2021.  Kenneth Walker has been electric running the ball.  Payton Thorne connects consistently with Jayden Reed and Jaylen Nailor on the outside.  Those two WRs have combined for 11 touchdown receptions through 7 games.  However, both Nebraska and Indiana were able to effectively bottle up this Spartan offense.  Michigan State managed to gain just 254 total yards in Week 4 versus the Cornhuskers.  The Hoosiers’ defense fared even better, holding MSU to only 241 total yards just before the Spartans took their week off.  The challenge for Mike MacDonald will be keeping all of the Spartan playmakers inside and in front of his defenders.  If the Wolverines’ DBs don’t get beat over the top, and can avoid giving away conversions via penalty, I trust Michigan’s edge defenders to keep Walker contained inside.

PREDICTION:  The 2021 battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy is the most anticipated chapter of the game in my lifetime.  Both teams are undefeated heading into the game for the first time since 1999, when UMGoBlue.com first appeared on dial up internet.  In many ways, these teams are very similar.  As is usually the case, Saturday’s victor will be decided by which players step up in key moments and can deliver big time plays.  All things considered, I believe Michigan will wear down the Spartans and take control of this game in the 2nd half.  Prepare yourself for an emotional rollercoaster as Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines are trading haymakers (figuratively of course) with Mel Tucker’s Spartans.
Michigan 31 Michigan State 21 (same as preseason)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/24/21), 7-0

  • SP+ Overall: 7th (↑1), 19.6
  • SP+ Offense: 22nd 18th (↓4), 34.9
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (↑1), 15.9
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (↓1), 0.6

AP Poll: 6th (same), 1,270

Coaches’ Poll: 6th (same), 1,313

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game 7
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2020 Game 2 — Michigan 24 Michigan State 27 – Week 2 Recap

Now what?

WEEK 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 24-27, Michigan State by 3 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 19.2 (-22.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 45 (-48)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 2 RECAP vs. Michigan State

There wasn’t a huge turnover margin problem.  There was no hurricane or snow storm.  Michigan State outplayed Michigan and won the game in Ann Arbor.  That is the sad, brutal truth.  The most important question now has to be, “What is next?”

Joe Milton looked like a new starter.  He wasn’t bad, but there were problems with reading the defense in the pass game and the run game.  There were inaccurate throws, deep and intermediate.  The biggest difference this week was almost no explosion passing or running.  To really understand why these things are true, I need another review of the play on the field, and that’s going to have to wait a while.

Defensively there are two main issues: one was discussed ad nauseum by the FOX broadcast, and one was not.  We heard Gus Johnson & Joel Klatt keep calling out MSU’s advantage outside with their WRs versus Michigan’s CBs.  I am absolutely shocked the Spartans were able to make the plays they made, but I’ll tip my cap on two or three of those catches.  The other main issue was almost a total absence of pressure on Rocky Lombardi.  The MSU offensive line that gave up 12 (!) TFLs to Rutgers (!) in week one, kept their QB clean today versus the Wolverines.  That fact alone carries most of the water when I have to explain how I missed this prediction by 48 points.  I did not think we would see a clean jersey on Rocky Lombardi.   

Back to the drawing board for Jim Harbaugh and his staff.  The offensive game plan got major kudos last week, and this week seemed handcuffed.  The defensive personnel concerns that fans had from training camp at CB seemed unfounded versus Rashod Bateman last week.  This week they got torched by Ricky White.  I knew 2020 was going to be a crazy season, but still got totally rope-a-doped in this one.  Shame on me.