GAME 1 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS
Final Score: 13-12, Michigan by 1 over WMU
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 25.5 (-24.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 32 (-31)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 1 RECAP vs. WMU
The offense was abysmal for the entirety of the game, save the first drive and the last four plays. The Wolverines held onto a 44% success rate after starting with 60% success in the first quarter. The lack of run game is the headline that will be buried by JJ Buchanan’s heroics on the final drive. Michigan has to go back to the drawing board with the offensive line and figure out how to get some push inside. Bryce Underwood still struggles to make decisions quickly and accurately in games, but he will be a different player if the Wolverines add some run game success through the season.
The defense flat out ran out of gas. After the Broncos took the ball with 9:00+ on the clock in the third quarter, they didn’t give it back until nearly 14:00 later on the game clock. The Michigan LBs were mixed up too frequently by RPOs, and the interior of the line started to march backward. I still give the defense credit for standing up in the biggest moments. If Western finds the end zone once in this game, they would have been out of reach for Michigan at the end.
Special teams is still not solved, but the punter Cam Brown may have been the MVP before Buchanan put his cape on for the last drive. Brown had 6 punts and averaged 46.7 per kick, with 0 returns. The Broncos still managed to dominate field position, but without Brown, it would have been insurmountable.
There is a lot to learn in this film for a young team. As fans, we will have to let go of this narrative as soon as possible, and some day we can all laugh about Michigan students storming the field after a Hail Mary win over the MAC champs. Kyle Whittingham will remember this night forever, but he has a lot of work to do with his staff to avoid a 2026 nightmare. The schedule is far too tough to have any similar performance by the Wolverines. Go Blue!