The Wolverines narrowly missed a shut out for the second consecutive week. Michigan cruised to a 35-7 victory behind pinpoint accuracy from JJ McCarthy, and physical dominance by the defensive line.
NEXT UP: vs. Bowling Green: SP+ 113th, -15.0
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 45.1, Michigan Win Probability 100%
Rinse and repeat for the non-conference schedule. The SP+ model again picks the Wolverines by over 40 points, and predicts the opponent to stay under a full touchdown score. This week the model produced a 49-4 prediction.
Michigan Offense (14th) vs. BGSU Defense (121st)
The Wolverines have two main objectives offensively in Week 3: maintain the passing game momentum & smooth out the run game execution and timing. JJ McCarthy only has 7 incompletions through two games, compared to 5 touchdown connections with Roman Wilson. The key run game metrics for this week will be related to explosiveness. If we see a significant uptick on yards per play and in EPA per play, we can infer the offensive line has cleaned up assignments, the wide receivers are engaging better on the perimeter, and the running backs are in sync.
Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. BGSU Offense (94th)
This matchup pits one of Michigan’s greatest strengths, the defensive line, directly against one of Bowling Green’s greatest weaknesses, their offensive line. That imbalance in the trenches might make it difficult to evaluate other individual players, or the back seven position groups. We can watch out for continued improvement from the edge players. I would love to see Braden McGregor, Josiah Stewart, Derrick Moore, & Jaylen Harrell continue to fill the stat sheet with TFLs and sacks. Ideally, those plays would also come after beating the block of an offensive lineman. Last week, a handful of TFLS were the direct result of Wolverines who were totally unblocked.
PREDICTION: Sherrone Moore gets his turn to add Head Coach duties to his plate this week. While I am happy for Coach Moore to showcase his talent, I am very much looking forward to putting the Harbaugh suspension behind us and settling into normal coaching staff roles. Jesse Minter’s defense has flirted with a shutout in both of Michigan’s first two games. We might be trying to protect a goose egg in this one as well.
BGSU drew praise from Jim Harbaugh this week related to their passing concepts. However, I think they will rely much more on their running game in order to keep the clock churning. The Falcons are a team who utilizes hurry up and temp the least. It makes sense for them to try and reduce the number of drives and plays in order to keep this game close. Michigan 36 BGSU 3 (PRESEASON Michigan 48 BGSU 7)
Final Score: 30-3, Michigan by 27 over ECU SP+ Projection: Michigan by 40.9 (-13.9) CD Projection: Michigan by 32 (-5)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 1 RECAP vs. ECU
Offensively, the number that stands out is 60(%). Michigan called pass plays 60% of the snaps that were non-garbage time against ECU. That clarifies an increased focus on letting J.J. McCarthy have more control over the game. He stepped up to the challenge by going 26-of-30 for 280 yards and connecting for 3 touchdowns to Roman Wilson. There were hiccups, as we expected, with the offense in Sherrone Moore’s absence. However, I expect that will smooth out when Moore returns and the offensive line continues to gel together.
The defense was robbed of a shutout on the final snap of the game. ECU settled for the saddest possible 33-yard field goal to get onto the scoreboard with 0:05 left in the game. The Wolverines gained a lot of game experience for their younger players, especially in the secondary. With Will Johnson and Rod Moore both sitting out, Keon Sabb and Jyaire Hill stepped in admirably. Kenneth Grant showed that he will be adding value to the interior pass rush. He was in the face of ECU quarterback Mason Garcia to force an interception by Mike Sainristil.
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There was almost no way to sustain the kicking game level we’re used to from the Jake Moody / Brad Robbins era. James Turner’s nerves got the best of him as he missed an extra point. However, he showed plenty of leg while he nailed a 50-yard field goal in the first half, and missed a 53-yarder wide in the second half.
Overall, I didn’t see anything that made me change my expectations for the early portion of the season. It was very encouraging to see an offensive commitment to the pass game, and we know the run game will sort itself out to some extent. Other than the players who sat out, I think the Wolverines managed to stay healthy. Next, Michigan will look to play a cleaner game under two different acting head coaches when they take on UNLV for Game #2. Onward!
On offense, Donovan Edwards returns in the backfield next to Heisman hopeful Blake Corum. Junior quarterback J.J. McCarthy will be responsible to distribute the ball to both star running backs while the Wolverines also look to increase the share of pass plays called in 2023.
Michigan enters the 2023 season as the two-time defending B1G Ten champions. The Wolverines were able to prove the 2021 season was no fluke by traveling to Columbus and pulling away from the Buckeyes for their first road win in The Game since 2000. Blake Corum headlines a list of players returning who could have been drafted by the NFL last April. Now, it’s August so with sky-high expectations we kick off the 2023 return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with this game-by-game preview of the 2023 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbersarticles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.
The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system is meant to be predictive for making educated bets, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games.
What is SP+
SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date. 2023 Preseason SP+ Rankings (ESPN+) Original Explanation (SB Nation)
PAST RESULTS
When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record, and that of the SP+ projections, since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com in 2018.
Connelly’s SP+ preseason projections are amazingly accurate in picking the straight up winners over the past 5 seasons (80% correct). Against the spread, the SP+ results improve once there is 2023 game data available to be fed into the model each week. The game week SP+ projections correctly pick the winner against the spread in Michigan games 55% of the time.
Historically in this space, my By the Numbers preseason predictions have been correct 76% of the time straight up, and 52% against the spread. The data are pretty clear also that I have a harder time adjusting away from my preseason notions than the SP+ model does. Once we get into game week predictions, my accuracy only improves by ~4% points once we have seen the Wolverines on the field.
As mentioned above, Michigan has the highest possible preseason expectations after reaching the College Football Playoff, but losing in the semifinals both of the past two seasons. The returning production on offense keeps the Wolverines in the top ten in Offense SP+ rankings. Their jump all the way up to 4th in the preseason Defense SP+ rankings really stands out, though. Together the units combine to place Michigan in the 3rd Overall spot with Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, & Alabama all within 1.1 points of one another.
2023 Regular Season Schedule
vs. East Carolina: 87th Overall, 93rd Offense, 81st Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 37.3
PREDICTION: The non-conference slate is relatively weak for a second consecutive year. Of the three opponents from outside the B1G Ten, the Pirates hold the highest preseason SP+ rating. ECU has enjoyed moderate success in the American Athletic Conference in five years under Mike Houston. While there will be some big plays from both sides, Michigan’s offensive firepower will overwhelm the Pirates near halftime. Michigan 45 ECU 13, 1-0
vs. UNLV: 110th Overall, 100th Offense, 112th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 43.2
PREDICTION: Typically in coach speak, a team makes a significant jump from the first game week to the second. I expect the Wolverines to clean up a handful of near misses from their first game. The underwhelming Rebels will be somewhat unlucky opponents during a much cleaner performance from Michigan. Michigan 52 UNLV 6, 2-0
vs. Bowling Green: 129th Overall, 105th Offense, 130th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 49.0
PREDICTION: According to preseason SP+, the Falcons are the weakest opponent on Michigan’s 2023 regular season schedule. We already know this game has been slotted into the 7:30 PM slot on Big Ten Network, so maybe the night game atmosphere will provide some electricity. I am expecting a big margin of victory here, but we definitely have to keep an eye on whether or not the Wolverines allow themselves to become overconfident and sluggish. Michigan 48 BGSU 7, 3-0
vs. Rutgers: 77th Overall, 99th Offense, 60th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 34.3
PREDICTION: Week 4 brings another opponent ranked in the bottom half of the nation in SP+ as the B1G 10 season kicks off against Rutgers. Consistently, Greg Schiano has the Scarlet Knights well prepared for the Michigan game, especially his defensive unit. This matchup is highly likely to expose some offensive flaws for the Wolverines that we may not know about yet. In the end, the Wolverines will make the key plays they need in the 2nd half to win by two scores. Michigan 31 Rutgers 16, 4-0
PREDICTION: The first B1G Ten road game lands in Lincoln, Nebraska. New head coach Matt Rhule inherits a program that has some talent on both sides of the ball, but could never find the missing link under Scott Frost. The Wolverines cruised past Nebraska in Ann Arbor 34-3 last year, but I expect this game to look and feel much more like the 2021 edition. The Huskers could be 3-1 or 4-0 heading in and will be looking to make a major program statement at Michigan’s expense. Michigan 34 Nebraska 13, 5-0
PREDICTION: P.J. Fleck has raised the bar for the Golden Gophers’ fans. They are consistently a tough match up in B1G West games, although they haven’t yet broken through and qualified for a trip to Indianapolis. Even if Michigan is firing on all cylinders at this point in the season, a 2nd consecutive B1G Ten road trip against a quality opponent will be a legitimate test for Jim Harbaugh’s crew. The Wolverines are the better team, but they will have to overcome some adversity to win this one in Minneapolis. Michigan 31 Minnesota 14, 6-0
vs. Indiana: 83rd Overall, 71st Offense, 100th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 34.8
PREDICTION: The back half of the regular season starts with Tom Allen’s Hoosiers visiting Ann Arbor. Indiana again finds themselves in a spot on Michigan’s schedule that could present a trap game risk where a rivalry game is looming on deck. These risks were much scarier when the Hoosiers were sporting a defense ranked better than 100th in SP+, but Indiana rebuilt their 2023 roster via the transfer portal so the range of potential outcomes here could be pretty wide.
PREDICTION: Michigan’s final game in the month of October is their third road game in four weeks. It also happens to be a short trip to East Lansing to take on the Spartans in their 2023 super bowl equivalent game. To avoid disaster, the Wolverines will have to eliminate major mistakes and create turnovers versus MSU’s less-talented offense. Getting off to a fast start and taking the Spartan crowd out of the game would be a big help, but if this game stays close then Michigan will be forced to win another dog fight. Michigan 31 Michigan State 20, 8-0
vs. Purdue: 58th Overall, 53rd Offense, 55th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 24.6
PREDICTION: Michigan returns home after the bye week in a rematch of the 2022 B1G Championship game against Purdue. Jeff Brohm left for his alma mater Louisville, so rookie head coach Ryan Walters will lead the Boilermakers. The preseason SP+ ratings place the Boilers almost exactly in the middle of FBS, but I think Walters will overachieve in year one, especially on defense. This game could worry some folks at the Big House because it may stay close all the way into the 4th quarter. Michigan 30 Purdue 17, 9-0
@ Penn State: 6th Overall, 22nd Offense, 5th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 5.6
PREDICTION: Perhaps the biggest TV scheduling break for the Wolverines comes in Week 11. FOX has already penciled the potential top-ten battle into the noon slot. This allows Michigan to avoid the White Out night game atmosphere at Beaver Stadium. On the field, the Nittany Lions are loaded with talent in many of the same positions as the Wolverines. They have two great running backs, and several great playmakers on defense. For Michigan, this game will be decided by the quarterback comparison. I like the odds that J.J. McCarthy will step up and outshine PSU’s sophomore Drew Allar. Michigan 27 PSU 17, 10-0
PREDICTION: The Wolverines will visit old friend Josh Gattis in Week 12 as Michigan travels to College Park to take on the Terrapins. Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has big-time playmaker ability that can help keep pace with Michigan’s offense. However, he often makes big mistakes in key moments, especially when under pressure. This game will be a great test for the Wolverines’ secondary as they attempt to bottle up a “Speed in Space” offense. Michigan 35 Maryland 21, 11-0
vs. Ohio State: 2nd Overall, 1st Offense, 12th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: OSU by 0.2
PREDICTION: As far as we can reasonably predict in the preseason, The Game is shaping up to be another clash of B1G Ten & national title contenders. On defense, the Buckeyes will likely continue to improve in year two under coordinator Jim Knowles, but they will again be forced to sell out to try and stop Michigan’s run game. Offensively, OSU boasts the most prolific wide receiver room in the country, and nobody is really that close. Wolverines’ defensive coordinator Jesse Minter will have to use every coverage look and any creative pressure packages he can conjure to slow the Buckeyes’ first-year starting quarterback: either Kyle McCord or Devin Brown. Michigan 39 Ohio State 33, 12-0
1st Place in B1G Ten East
Sophomore cornerback Will Johnson emerged on the national scene with two interceptions in the B1G Ten Championship game vs. Purdue in 2022. This season he will be expected to lock down nearly every opponent for defensive coordinator Jesse Minter.
