The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games this past week, and they lost both of them.  On Thursday (02/22/2024), they lost at Northwestern 76-62, then on Sunday (02/25/2024), they lost to (#3) Purdue 84-76 in Crisler Arena.  The two losses lower Michigan’s record to 8-20 (3-14 in Big Ten).  Michigan has now lost 5 games in a row.

What Happened?

These were two very predictable losses.  Northwestern is having a very good year, especially for them, and Purdue has been in the top 5 all season, while Michigan is having one of their worst seasons in the last 50 years.  That’s a bad combination.

Game Flow

Once again, the Northwestern game was a tale of two halves.  In the 1^st half, Michigan played well, controlled the tempo, and led for most of the half.  They got their lead as high as 11 points (16-5, at the 13:23 mark), and kept it around 7-9 points for most of the half.  They were still up 9 points (28-19) with 6:35 to go, when Northwestern went on an 11-2 run to tie the game up, 30-30, with 3:40 left.  It was still tied up (34-34) with 2 seconds left, but Northwestern hit a 3-pointer to lead 37-34 at halftime.  Bummer.  As I said above, this game was a tale of two halves, and Northwestern owned the 2^nd half.  Michigan did put up a little fight early in the 2^nd half, but once Northwestern got rolling, it was over.  Northwestern built their halftime lead of 3 points up to 7 points (41-34) with 17:48 to go, then let Michigan creep back into it.  UM got their only lead of the 2^nd half, 44-43, at the 15:36 mark, then Northwestern went on a 14-3 run to go up 10 points (57-47) with 10:27 left.  Northwestern pushed their lead as high as 20 points, winning by 14.

Against Purdue, Michigan actually played pretty well for the first 14 minutes.  They led for the first 10 minutes, by as many as 7 points, and with 16:30 to go in the half, Michigan still led by one point, 30-29.  That was their last lead.  Purdue suddenly woke up, and pulled away with an 18-6 run to end the half, up 11 points (47-36).  In the 2^nd half, Purdue kept the lead in the 9-11 point range the whole time, never letting Michigan get closer than 7 points, winning by 8 points.

Stats

The game stats for the Northwestern game were surprisingly good.  Michigan shot well overall (22-for-44 = 50.0%), they shot 3-pointers extremely well (8-for-11 = 72.7%), but they shot free throws poorly (10-for-18 = 55.6%).  They lost the rebounding battle (36-27) and the turnover battle (11-5).  They lost this game with poor rebounding and too many turnovers, with a dash of poor free-throw shooting thrown in.

The game stats for the Purdue game were better than expected.  Michigan shot well overall (29-for-60 = 48.3%), they shot 3-pointers very well (9-for-21 = 42.9%), and they shot free throws decently (9-for-13 = 69.2%).  They lost the rebounding battle badly (41-28) and the turnover battle (10-8).  They lost this game with terrible rebounding and too many fouls.  Actually, they lost this game because of too much Zach Edey, Purdue’s 7’4” center.  Michigan didn’t have anyone who could stop him, or really even slow him down.  He ended up with 35 points on 14-for-18 shooting, along with 15 rebounds.  He was awesome.

Who Started?

Here’s where things get interesting.  Remember last week when Terrance Williams II didn’t play in the MSU game?  It turns out that there has been some bug (flu?  Not COVID-19) running through the team, and that’s what he had.  Well, it struck again this week:  Will Tschetter didn’t travel with the team to Northwestern, due to the unspecified team bug.  No big deal, right?  Tschetter is an important sub, but Michigan can work around his absence, right?  Wrong.  Tschetter would have started and played a lot in the Northwestern game because (drumroll) Olivier Nkamhoua is out for the rest of the season with a wrist injury.  It turns out that Nkamhoua has been playing with an injured left (non-shooting) wrist injury he suffered in practice back in early January, before the Minnesota game on 01/04/2024.  It finally got to the point where he needed surgery, so now he’s done for the season.

The starters for the Northwestern game were Nimari Burnett, Tray Jackson, Jaelin Llewellyn, Tarris Reed, Jr., and Terrance Williams II.  Dug McDaniel didn’t travel with the team for the Northwestern game (indefinite “road suspension”), so Llewellyn started in his place.  Nkamhoua is out for the season, and Tschetter would have started in his place, but he didn’t travel to Northwestern due to the team flu bug.  So, Michigan was missing their two best players (McDaniel and Nkamhoua) and their best sub (Tschetter).  Great.

The starters for the Purdue game were Burnett, McDaniel, Reed, Tschetter, and Williams.

Who Looked Good?

Burnett had a good week, with 15 points (team high) vs. Northwestern, and 12 points vs. Purdue.  He shot well in both games: 6-for-8 overall (3-for-5 from deep) vs. Northwestern, and 5-for-9 overall (2-for-4 from deep) vs. Purdue.

Williams had a good week, with 13 and 11 points.  He was Michigan’s leading rebounder vs. Northwestern, with 7 boards.

Jackson also had a good week, with 10 points in each game, one as a starter (Northwestern) and one off the bench (Purdue).  Michigan had lots of foul trouble vs. Purdue, trying to guard Edey, so Jackson ended up playing some center.

Reed had one good game (13 points vs. Northwestern) and one lousy game (2 points vs. Purdue).  Edey smothered him, and he only played 18 minutes against him, due to early foul trouble.  He couldn’t contain Edey, and he couldn’t get a shot off against him.  He shot 1-for-2 vs. Purdue.

McDaniel was Michigan’s leading scorer in the one game he played in (Purdue), with 19 points.  On the downside, he shot poorly: 7-for-20 overall, 2-for-7 from deep.

Tschetter played pretty well in the one game he played in (Purdue), with 10 points.  With Nkamhoua out and Reed on the bench with early foul trouble, he played center vs. Edey.  What fun!

Jace Howard played well off the bench, with 5 and 8 points.

Who Looked Not-So-Good?

Llewellyn only played in one game this week (Northwestern), and he only scored 3 points.  He missed the Purdue game, probably with the team flu bug.

Who Else Played?

Ian Burns played the last minute of the Northwestern game, but didn’t attempt a shot.

Harrison Hochberg played the last minute of the Northwestern game, but didn’t attempt a shot.

Youssef Khayat played in both games, and scored 3 and 0 points.

Jackson Selvala played the last minute of the Northwestern game, but didn’t attempt a shot.

Cooper Smith played the last minute of the Northwestern game, but didn’t attempt a shot.

George Washington III played in both games, and scored 0 and 4 points.

Who Didn’t Play?

Everyone played in at least one game this week.

What Does It Mean?

Michigan has 3 regular season games left, along with at least one game in the Big Ten Tournament.  They need to win 2 of those 4 games to get up to 10 wins.  It probably won’t happen.  Also, at 3-14 in the Big Ten, they are guaranteed to finish last in the Big Ten, although they could end up tied with Ohio State (currently 6-11 in Big Ten) or Rutgers (currently 6-10 in Big Ten) if they win their last 3 and OSU loses their last 3 or Rutgers loses their last 4.  Also unlikely.  So, they probably won’t win 10 games this season, and they will probably finish all alone in last place in the Big Ten.  Sigh.

What’s Next?

The season drones on.  This week, Michigan plays two games.  On Thursday (02/29/2024, 8:30 p.m., FS1), they play at Rutgers, then on Sunday (03/03/2024, 4:00 p.m., CBS) they play at Ohio State.

Rutgers is currently 14-13 (6-10 in Big Ten).  Michigan played Rutgers in Ann Arbor back on 02/03/2024, and Rutgers beat them easily, 69-59.  If Michigan can’t beat Rutgers in Ann Arbor with Nkamhoua, they probably won’t be able to beat them on the road without him.  I expect a 15-20 point loss.

Ohio State is currently 16-12 (6-11 in Big Ten).  Michigan played OSU in Ann Arbor back on 01/15/2024, and Michigan won 73-65.  Since then, OSU has fired their head coach (Chris Holtmann) on 02/14/2024, and won 2 out of 3 games since then for interim coach Jake Diebler, beating (#2) Purdue and Michigan State (in East Lansing).  Even though Michigan won the first meeting, I expect them to have a much harder time down in Columbus.  I’m expecting a 10-15 point OSU win.

Check back next week to find out what happened and why.

Go Blue!

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games this past week, and they lost both of them.  On Tuesday (02/13/2024), they lost at (#14) Illinois 97-68, then on Saturday (02/17/2024), they lost to Michigan State 73-63 in Crisler Arena.  The two losses lower Michigan’s record to 8-18 (3-12 in Big Ten).

What Happened?

It was another lost week in a lost season for the basketball team.  They were crushed in the Illinois game, but they put up a good fight in the MSU game, until the last 7 minutes.  More about that below.

Game Flow

The first few minutes of the Illinois game were OK.  The game was tied at 2-2, and Michigan actually led 5-4 with 16:20 left in the 1^st half.  That was Michigan’s only lead of the game.  The score was tied 7-7, and Michigan was only down one point (10-9) with 14:22 to go.  That was the last time it was close.  Illinois went on a 12-2 run to make the score 22-11, and they kept the lead in the 7-9 point range for most of the half.  Michigan snuck back within 3 points (28-25) at the 4:48 mark, but that seemed to wake Illinois up, and they went on a 19-4 run to end the half, up 18 points, 47-29.  The 2^nd half was a disaster.  Illinois quickly pushed their lead up to 30 points (67-37) with 14:51 to go.  It got as high as 37 points, before Illinois put in their subs and scrubs for the last 5 minutes.  That allowed Michigan to get as close as 28 points, losing by 29.  It was a good old-fashioned butt-whipping.

The 1^st half of the MSU game was a close, seesaw affair, with both teams building up small leads.  The game should have been tied 37-37 at halftime, but the refs made a terrible call and gave MSU 2 free throws with 0.4 seconds left, so MSU led 39-37 at halftime.  Michigan has had a terrible time with the first few minutes of the 2^nd half all season, but not in this game.  With 16:45 to go, Michigan was ahead, 48-43.  Instead of wilting, Michigan kept the lead, and actually increased it a little: 53-47 at the 13:13 mark.  MSU tied it (56-56) with 11:28 to go, then went ahead.  In many games this season, once Michigan fell behind in the 2^nd half, they were done.  Not this time: they tied it up 61-61, then 63-63, at the 7:01 mark.  Let’s take a minute to look at that score, then remember the final score (73-63).  Yes, that means that Michigan didn’t score a single point in the last 7:01 of the game.  In that stretch, they missed 2 2-point attempts, they missed 2 3-point attempts, they committed 5 turnovers, and they committed 4 fouls.  That’s some miserable basketball.

Stats

The game stats for the Illinois game were horrible, just horrible.  Michigan shot decently overall (24-for-57 = 42.1%), they shot 3-pointers horribly (1-for-10 = 10.0%), and they shot free throws poorly (19-for-28 = 67.9%).  They lost the rebounding battle (38-29) and the turnover battle (11-9).  They lost this game with horrible 3-point shooting and poor rebounding.

The game stats for the MSU game were mediocre.  Michigan shot fairly well overall (24-for-53 = 45.3%), they shot 3-pointers decently (7-for-20 = 35.0%), and they shot free throws poorly (8-for-12 = 66.7%).  They actually won the rebounding battle (35-31), but they lost the turnover battle spectacularly (22-10).  They lost this game with WAY too many turnovers.

Who Started?

The starters for the Illinois game were Nimari Burnett, Jaelin Llewellyn, Olivier Nkamhoua, Tarris Reed, Jr., and Terrance Williams II.  Dug McDaniel didn’t travel with the team for the Illinois game (indefinite “road suspension”), so Llewellyn started in his place.

The starters for the MSU game were Burnett, Llewellyn, McDaniel, Nkamhoua, and Reed.  Williams didn’t play, due to an undisclosed injury or illness.

Who Looked Good?

Reed had a good week, with double figures in both games: 13 vs. Illinois and 15 vs. MSU.  He also had 7 and 11 rebounds, giving him a double-double vs. MSU.

Nkamhoua hit double figures in both games, with 13 and 11 points.  Unfortunately, he was a turnover machine vs. MSU, with 8!

Williams had a good game in his only game this week, with 17 points vs. Illinois.

McDaniel hit double figures in the one game he played in (MSU), with 13 points.  On the downside, he shot poorly (4-for-13 overall), and he had 5 turnovers.

Burnett had one good game (10 points vs. MSU) and one mediocre game (6 points vs. Illinois).

Llewellyn had one good game (12 points vs. MSU) and one mediocre game (4 points vs. Illinois).  He shot poorly: 1-for-7 (0-for-3 from deep) vs. Illinois, and 4-for-11 (2-for-6 from deep) vs. MSU.

Will Tschetter had a mixed week off the bench, with 8 points vs. Illinois and 2 points vs. MSU.  He shot well vs. Illinois (3-for-4 overall, 1-for-1 from deep) and terribly vs. MSU (1-for-6 overall, 0-for-3 from deep).  His 2 points vs. MSU were all the bench points for that game.  Ugh.

Tray Jackson also had a mixed week off the bench, with 6 points vs. Illinois and 0 points vs. MSU.  Michigan needs a lot more production from him.

Who Looked Not-So-Good?

George Washington III played in both games, but didn’t score.  He played for 18 minutes vs. Illinois, and shot terribly: 0-for-4 overall, 0-for-3 from deep.  He played for 2 minutes vs. MSU, and didn’t attempt a shot.

Who Else Played?

Ian Burns played the last 2 minutes of the Illinois game, and went 1-for-2 from the free throw line.

Jackson Selvala played the last 3 minutes of the Illinois game, but didn’t attempt a shot.

Cooper Smith played the last minute of the Illinois game, but didn’t attempt a shot.

Who Didn’t Play?

Jace Howard and Youssef Khayat were the scholarship players who didn’t play this week.  They are both reported to be injured.

Harrison Hochberg was the only Scout Team player who didn’t play this week.

What Does It Mean?

With 18 losses, Michigan is now officially eliminated from the NIT.  The only way they can make it to a postseason tournament is to win the Big Ten Tournament, guaranteeing them a spot in the Big Dance, but that’s extremely unlikely.

What’s Next?

The season drones on.  This week, Michigan plays two games.  On Thursday (02/22/2024, 9:00 p.m. EST, FS1), they play at Northwestern, then on Sunday (02/25/2024, 2:00 p.m., CBS) they play (#2) Purdue in Crisler Arena.

Northwestern is currently 18-8 (9-6 in Big Ten), with impressive wins over (#1) Purdue, Michigan State, and (#10) Illinois, and puzzling losses to Mississippi State, Chicago State, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Rutgers.  They have one noteworthy player: Boo Buie.  He always gives Michigan problems.  They also have some height: a 6’10” player and a 7-footer.  As a side note, they also have 3 players named Blake (Barkley, Preston, and Smith).  This is not your grandfather’s Northwestern team – they’re talented and they’re winning.  They stand a good chance at making the Big Dance.  It would be quite a surprise if Michigan managed to beat them, especially on the road.  I expect a 10-15 point loss.

Purdue is currently 23-3 (12-3 in Big Ten).  Michigan played at Purdue back on 01/23/2024, and they got their butts kicked, 99-67.  I expect more of the same in Ann Arbor, probably a 20-25 point loss.

Check back next week to find out what happened and why.

Go Blue!

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games this past week, and they won one and lost the other.  On Wednesday (02/07/2024), they beat (#11) Wisconsin 72-68 in Crisler Arena, then on Saturday (02/10/2024), they lost at Nebraska 79-59.  The win and the loss leave Michigan with a record of 8-16 (3-10 in Big Ten).

What Happened?

The win over Wisconsin was a huge upset, especially given how poorly Michigan has been playing for the last month.  After many games in a row where Michigan has folded when things got tough in the 2^nd half, UM kept their composure in the face of adversity vs. Wisconsin and finished the game strong.  Could they carry that momentum into their next game, at Nebraska?  No, not even close.  They got behind early, fell way behind before halftime, and never seriously challenged Nebraska in the 2^nd half.  One step forward, one step back.

Game Flow

The Wisconsin game was close early, with tie scores at 6-6, 8-8, 10-10, 11-11, 13-13, and 19-19.  Michigan finally started pulling away with a 10-1 run, to go up 29-20 with 7:28 to go in the 1^st half.  They kept the lead in the 5-7 point range for a while, but Wisconsin snuck up, and Michigan was only leading by 1 point (34-33) with 1:58 left.  Fortunately, they finished the half on a 3-0 run, to lead by 4 points (37-33) at halftime.  As they have so many times this season, Michigan had a tough time at the start of the 2^nd half.  Wisconsin outscored Michigan 10-5 in the first 3:47, to go up 43-42.  In the last month, whenever Michigan has lost their lead in the 2^nd half, they have never regained it.  This game was different.  Instead of folding, Michigan hung in there with Wisconsin, and the lead went back and forth for several minutes.  With 12:29 left in the game, Wisconsin was up by 1 point (48-47).  That was their last lead.  Michigan grabbed the lead at the 12:07 mark, 49-48, and never trailed again.  They got the lead at high as 9 points (63-54 with 5:45 to go), but let Wisconsin get within 2 points (70-68) with 11 seconds to go.  Michigan hit their free throws, and won by 4.  It was Michigan’s best game, and best win, of the season.

Other than the first 5 minutes, the Nebraska game was a disaster.  Michigan actually led once (2-0), and the score was tied 2-2 and 4-4.  Michigan was within 2 points (9-7) with 15:32 left in the 1^st half, and then the roof fell in.  Nebraska went on a 13-0 run, and led 22-7 with 11:20 to go.  Michigan made a basket and a free throw to stay within 15 points (25-10) with 9:40 to go, then Nebraska went on another run, this time 18-3, to lead by 30 points (43-13) with 5:21 left.  At that point, the game was over.  I can’t remember the last time Michigan trailed by 30 points in the 1^st half.  It was humiliating.  Nebraska led by 20 at halftime, 45-25, and they let Michigan go on a couple mini-runs every now and then, but they never let their lead get below 19 points until the 5:23 mark in the 2^nd half, when Michigan got as close as 15 points (70-55).  They pushed their lead back up past 20 points, cruising to a 20-point win.

Stats

The game stats for the Wisconsin game were decent.  Michigan shot pretty well overall (23-for-51 = 45.1%), they shot 3-pointers pretty well (7-for-20 = 35.0%), and they shot free throws pretty well (19-for-25 = 76.0%).  They won the rebounding battle (34-28), and tied in the turnover battle (12-12).  They won this game with pretty good shooting and rebounding.

The game stats for the Nebraska game were mediocre.  Michigan shot poorly overall (20-for-62 = 32.3%), they shot 3-pointers pretty well (8-for-24 = 33.3%), and they shot free throws pretty well (11-for-15 = 73.3%).  They lost the rebounding battle (43-39) and the turnover battle (14-9).  They lost this game with poor overall shooting, rebounding, and too many turnovers.

Who Started?

The starters for the Wisconsin game were Nimari Burnett, Dug McDaniel, Olivier Nkamhoua, Tarris Reed, Jr., and Terrance Williams II.  McDaniel didn’t travel with the team for the Nebraska game (indefinite “road suspension”), so Jaelin Llewellyn started in his place.

Who Looked Good?

No Michigan player hit double figures in both games this week.

McDaniel hit double figures in the one game he played in (Wisconsin), with 16 points.  On the downside, he shot poorly (6-for-15 overall, 1-for-5 from deep), and he had 0 assists.

Burnett had one good game (18 points vs. Nebraska) and one decent game (8 points vs. Wisconsin).  He was Michigan’s leading scorer vs. Nebraska, and the only Michigan player to hit double figures in that game.

Reed had one good game (12 points vs. Wisconsin) and one decent game (9 points vs. Nebraska).

Williams had a couple decent games, with 10 and 9 points.

Llewellyn had a decent game as a starter vs. Nebraska (8 points), and a mediocre game (5 points) off the bench vs. Wisconsin.  He shot decently vs. Wisconsin (2-for-4 overall, 1-for-3 from deep), but he was lousy vs. Nebraska (3-for-12 overall, 2-for-7 from deep).

Will Tschetter was a little ray of sunshine off the bench, with 11 and 8 points.

Who Looked Not-So-Good?

Nkamhoua has a mediocre week, with 8 and 3 points.  He shot reasonably well in the Wisconsin game (2-for-5 overall, 1-for-3 from deep), but he was horrible in the Nebraska game (1-for-10 overall, 0-for-3 from deep).  On the positive side, he was the leading rebounder in both games, with 12 and 10.

Tray Jackson had 2 points off the bench in each game, but he did it on terrible shooting: 0-for-2 vs. Wisconsin (2-for-2 shooting free throws), and 0-for-5 overall, 0-for-1 from deep vs. Nebraska (2-for-2 shooting free throws).  Michigan needs a lot more production from him.

Who Else Played?

Harrison Hochberg played the last 2 minutes of the Nebraska game, but didn’t attempt a shot.

Youssef Khayat played the last minute of the Nebraska game, and missed his only shot attempt.

Jackson Selvala played the last 2 minutes of the Nebraska game, and scored the first points of his career, going 2-for-2 from the free throw line.  Good for him!

Cooper Smith played the last 2 minutes of the Nebraska game, but didn’t attempt a shot.

George Washington III played in both games, but didn’t score.  He didn’t attempt a shot vs. Wisconsin, and he was 0-for-2 (both 3-point attempts) vs. Nebraska.

Who Didn’t Play?

Jace Howard was the only scholarship player who didn’t play this week.  Could he be injured?

Ian Burns was the only Scout Team player who didn’t play this week.

What Does It Mean?

While the Wisconsin win was fun (and really unexpected), it was a case of “too little, too late”.  With their 16^th loss, Michigan now needs to win the rest of their regular season games (unlikely) and 2 games in the Big Ten Tournament to finish at 0.500 and be eligible for the NIT.  Of course, they could go on a run in the Big Ten Tournament and win it all, guaranteeing them a spot in the Big Dance, but that’s very unlikely.  They have lost too many games to stand any realistic chance of playing in the postseason.

What’s Next?

The season drones on.  This week, Michigan plays two games.  On Tuesday (02/13/2024, 7:00 p.m. EST, Peacock), they play at (#10) Illinois, then on Saturday (02/17/2024, 8:00 p.m., FOX) they play Michigan State in Crisler Arena.

Illinois is currently 17-6 (8-4 in Big Ten).  Michigan has already played Illinois, in Crisler Arena on 01/18/2024, and it didn’t go well.  Illinois won easily, 88-73.  It will be even worse on the road.  Staying within 20 points would be a moral victory.

Michigan State is currently 15-9 (7-6 in Big Ten).  Michigan has already played MSU, on the road on 01/30/2024, and it didn’t go well.  MSU won easily, 81-62.  It should be closer in Crisler Arena, but probably not close enough to matter.  Who knows, maybe UM has another upset in them?  After the Wisconsin win, it’s not inconceivable.

Check back next week to find out what happened and why.

Go Blue!