MICHIGAN FOOTBALL 2018-FIVE MISCUES SINK OUTBACK BOWL, 19-26

The Wolverines toted an 8-4 regular season record to Tampa’s Outback Bowl at noon on the 1st day of January 2018, to confront South Carolina’s Gamecocks in Raymond James stadium. It certainly looked like they would fashion a hard-earned victory, but their own miscues allowed the Gamecocks victory. They were well on their way to a late lead, when QB Brandon Peters threw his first career interception in the red zone. It hurt the cause with 5:42 left in third quarter. Last year’s finish to the season was distressing, and here it is again. This time with an 8 and 5 finish.

The Wolverines wanted to usher in 2018 as a new era of Michigan Football with a memorable start. An era replete with impressive individual and team performances. But instead they fashioned a loss.

Shame to see this game as the last Michigan hurrah for notable Seniors like Mo Hurst, Pat Kugler, and others.

The next time you see Mo in a football uniform it will be on Sundays sans the winged helmet. Mo was the 2017 Wolverine’s MVP, and a consensus All-American. He had contemplated not playing in the Outback to avoid injury to maintain his expected status in the upcoming pro draft. The specter of last year’s injury to Jake Butt, which is still hampering Jake’s pro progress, was a serious consideration.

Even before his decision to play for the Blue one last time, Mo Hurst had proved to be a consummate Michigan Man, and that continued. He played another outstanding game for the Wolverine’s New Year’s Day.

There are other past contributors to M football that have decided to take their football elsewhere to exhaust their fifth-year graduate eligibility. Quarterback Wilton Speight contributed much to M Football, and whether here or elsewhere, should be lauded for his effort, ability and determination while wearing the Maize and Blue. His nasty spinal injury was a difficult problem to overcome in time to play again this season. Wilton could have provided some welcome QB experience next year, and competed for the starting QB position.

The QB roster has recently been strengthened with the transfer to Michigan of QB Shea Patterson from the University of Mississippi, a.k.a. Ole Miss. This program has recently been beleaguered by serious NCAA violations. This has enabled some of their players to transfer to other institutions to continue their NCAA football careers. Patterson was a highly ranked recruit, and performed in accordance with that ranking for Ole Miss, until he was injured in the regular season just completed. He has three years to exhaust his Maize and Blue eligibility as things stand.

M QB Alex Malzone will try his fortunes elsewhere, as will Wide Receivers Maurice Ways and Drake Harris. Drake played in 7 games this year, but only snagged nine catches, and battled injuries seemingly continuously during his career. Drake could have been a poster child for injuries. They occurred and recurred for him, and hindered his display of talent, and advancement.

We should, and we do wish all departing Seniors, these good M men, a great future in whatever they choose to do, wherever they choose to do it. 

 

PETERS AND THE OFFENSE HAD A JOURNEYMAN DAY: In opposition of some fan expectations, Brandon Peters did not fashion a leg up on the 2018 starting quarterback job. He did make some nice plays, and also some bad mistakes as the Wolverines lost. He had an ordinary game, throwing for no TDs, and 2 interceptions.

There was a key fumble on an exchange with Sean McKeon as the running back. In after game comments Coach Harbaugh indicated it was a matter of the wrong personnel being on the field.

That Peters had his face mask pulled as he was sacked in the second half, and was poked in the eye, and had to sit some at crunch time, was a real downer, a critical turning point. John O’Korn came in and had no magic, either.

When Peters came back in, he threw a game clinching interception which ruined a late and great M red zone chance. A chance to take the lead.

The four field goals came back to haunt them as the Wolverines produced an anemic 277-yards of total offense.

The starting offensive line consisted of Cole, Onwenu, Kugler, Ruiz and Runyan. , Spaniellis replaced a dinged Kugler at center.

Peters was often hurried. At times the OL produced holes for Higdon, and Evans, The average yards per carry in the first quarter was something like 2.2-yards an attempt. It boggles my mind that a team that practices against a blitz everyday can’t handle the rush consistently, and protect its quarterback. This has to change.

Peters needed to play well to get this win, to earn a leg up on the competition he will face at the QB position next year. His prime competitors at the position of QB consist of Sophomore Dylan McCaffery, who red shirted this season, and incoming and experienced talent from Ole Miss transfer, QB Shea Patterson. They are both hyper talented. It seems likely Patterson will be allowed to play next year, although NCAA permission has not yet been granted. In any case, the QB room will have three good talents in the room during next season’s meetings.

All will be set to operate in prime competitive mode at the QB position, but they will miss a win at the Outback Bowl as their starting point. A win in that fracas would have been pure gold to jump start next season.

There are other QB talents in the wings. Hopefully they will not have to contribute sooner than later.

PLAYCALLING WAS NOT INVENTIVE, AND PREDICTABLE: The other side said afterwards that the route running in the passing game was very predictable, and the offense favored its tendencies. The running game was not inventive. It also fell short, producing only 74-yards. Karan Higdon fell six yards short of 1,000-yards. He had 17 carries for 65-yards. He averaged 3.8 yards per carry. Evans had 9 carries for 24 yards. He averaged 2.7 per carry. He and Evans both ran hard.

HARD HITTING GAME: Apparently there was a verbal war of words between the Wolverines and Gamecocks at pregame get acquainted bowling competition.

No one from either side got bowled over, and cooler heads prevailed, but it was an indication that it was not to not be a ho-hum affair.

On at least one occasion, it was a little too hard hitting on the part of one defensive Gamecock. He was flagged for targeting and thrown out for putting the top of his helmet on M receiver Donovon Peoples-Jones helmet.

The targeting call was reviewed and up held.

Muschamp went nuts, but it looked deliberate to me as did the face mask on Peters. I can’t say that Will Muschamp earned any respect from me in this game. Not that he cares.

THE GAMECOCKS: Their first scoring drive in the third quarter had two plays where our defense was out schemed. The second play resulted in six, and provided the path to their first TD and their victory.

There were some similarities between the teams. The similarities included an 8-4 record for the 2017 regular season, an offense that sometimes sputtered, but this game outplayed the Wolverines. Their defense was a solid defense that was respected more than their offense.

They too had a desire to finish up 9-4. Their defense was solid and their offense suspect. Sound familiar?

A big difference was that their offense, even though suspect, showed up when it counted.

The Gamecocks wanted to sustain the alleged superiority of the SEC over the B1G that the SEC proclaims, and in this case they did prevail. If we ever play them again, they will still be crowing over two wins, not just the hit.

Before the game, they fired their Offensive Coordinator for a very recognizable reason. Like Michigan, their offense had struggled against their better opponents.

M’s DEFENSE OUTPLAYED ITS OFFENSE, BUT STILL DID NOT HOLD A 20-POINT LEAD IN THE SECOND HALF. If one says that they let 20 unanswered points happen in the last half, it is also fair to state the offense answered the twenty with three. Again the defense played an extraordinary game for most of three quarters. Again, when it counted the opposition found a chink in the armor in the third quarter as exhibited in the Gamecocks first TD drive.

It is fair to say they were often faced with sudden change caused by offensive gaffes, and one special teams error. Inexplicably Donovon Peoples-Jones dropped a punt deep in his own territory and it was recovered by SC. 

HOW THEY SCORED: The game started out as strictly a defensive production for both sides. It got a little interesting for Michigan Fans when Quinn Nordin booted the first of his four FGs at 3:42 of the 1st Quarter.

Ambry Thomas opened proceedings with the recovery of a fumbled Gamecocks punt. The drive stalled and Quinn Nordin hit a 17-yard FG. M was up 3 zip.

Quinn hit a 26-yarder, SC hit one from 44-yards, and Quinn hit a 45-yard field goal to make it 9-3 to end the first half. The FGs were nice but unsettling. When would the TDs begin?

The Wolverines kicked to start the second half, held and produced a great TD drive of 72-yards. Nico Collins used big frame to nab a 13-yard catch, K. Crawford got one for 27-yards, Higdon ran for 10 to the one, and Ben Mason hauled it in for six. This was his second career TD.

It was now 19-3. The Wolverines were in command at the ten-minute mark of the third quarter.

Noah Furbush then intercepted a tipped pass and advanced it 27-yards to the SC 27. Great play by Furbush. The Wolverines had a 1st down at the SC 9-yard line, when Higdon, struggling for yardage, had the ball ripped loose. SC recovered and another golden opportunity was history.

The Wolverines Quinn Nordin then struck again, this time from 48-yards out. Now 22-3 at the 5:42 mark of the third quarter, the Wolverines were still very much in charge.

But not for long, as SC moved 77-yards featuring a 17-yard TD run. Two M penalties were also featured. L. Marshall was offside early in the drive, and Josh Metellus was called for unsportsmanlike conduct. I believe M’s defense got out schemed on this drive. It was now M 19, SC 10.

Things were about to rapidly unravel for the Wolverines. A Peters, McKeon exchange error was offered the football on the ground to the Gamecocks and they covered it. The fumble is credited to Peters. A 27-yard pass made it 19-16 as SC did not convert their two-point attempt. At the end of the third quarter it remained 19-16.

The Wolverines could not move offensively to start the 4th, but the Gamecocks could. SC completed a 55-yard TD pass and it was 19-23. The big play bug bit again at crunch time.

Peters was sacked, poked in the eye, and went to the bench. John O’Korn replaced him. Peters came back in, and the ball moved to the SC five.

Peters then threw the first interception of his career. I thought things could not get worse, but a punt that DPJ was fielding at his 10-yard line bounced off his shoulder pad, and SC recovered it at the M 14. They then hit a 22-yard FG. And it was 19-26.

Donovon Peoples-Jones  muffed a punt which was recovered at the M 14, to compound M’s woes.  It led to the 22-yard SC FG included in the score above.

M had one more chance after a missed SC FG, but Peters threw his second interception, and it was over except for the gloating by SEC mavens.

THIS WAS A TOUGH SEASON: The Wolverines played hard this season but did not do well against better competition. This last loss was particularly tough for them, but it is not the end of their world or ours.
The coaches performed a near miracle with a defense that had one returning starter, and again was one of the best in the country. The coaches could not perform the same miracle for the offense. Running backs look better, play calling, and scheme are not getting necessary results.

They need to get stronger. Some of that may be helped by a new Strength and Conditioning perspective as Kevin Tolbert is leaving and Ben Herbert has been retained. Herbert formerly was with Wisconsin and and Arkansas.

I do not know how to make the Wolverines a well oiled football machine, but I trust the coaches do, and I hope they will be geared up to slug it out next season.

Thank you for slogging through these pages this season, Happy New Year, and Go Blue!

Nothing But ‘Net – Week #10 – 01/01/2018 – End Of The Non-Conference Schedule & Mid-Term Grades

Happy New Year. Let’s hope 2018 is a good year for Michigan athletics.

Quick Look

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played one game last week, and they won it. On Saturday (12/30/2017), they beat Jacksonville 76-51 in Crisler Arena. The win raises Michigan’s record to 12-3 (1-1 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

This was the last of the “guarantee” games for Michigan, and they played well enough to win, but not well enough to dominate. The game started out slow and sloppy, with more turnovers than made baskets. Michigan never trailed, but they only led by 4 points (11-7) with 10:52 left in the 1st half. They finally pushed the lead into double digits (21-9) with 7:30 to go in the half, and never let it get below 10 points the rest of the game. The lead was 14 at halftime (32-18), and stayed in the 13-15 point range for the first 8:00 of the 2nd half. At that point, UM started pulling away, and kept the lead up over 20 points for the last 8:00 of the game.

Stats

The stats for the game are reasonable, but certainly not dominating. Michigan shot pretty well overall (31-for-55 = 56.4%), they shot 3-pointers fairly well (8-for-23 = 34.8%), and they shot free throws OK (6-for-9 = 66.7%). They lost the turnover battle (14-9), which very rarely happens, but they really won the rebounding battle (41-23).

Who Looked Good

The starters were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Eli Brooks, Charles Matthews, Duncan Robinson, and Moritz Wagner. Jon Teske had been starting in place of Wagner, who missed 2 games with a foot injury he sustained in the Texas game.

MAAR was the high scorer for Michigan, with 20 points. He was perfect from the floor (7-for-7 overall, 2-for-2 from 3-point range), and he even had 3 rebounds and 2 assists.

Matthews also had a good game, with 18 points, including a couple thunderous dunks. He was Michigan’s leading rebounder, with 7.

The other starter in double figures was Robinson, with 12 points. He didn’t shoot particularly well (5-for-10 overall, 2-for-6 from 3-point range), but he had some timely baskets.

The only other Michigan player in double figures was Jordan Poole, with 10 points. Of course, 8 of those 10 points were scored in the last 4:00, during “garbage time”, but they all count.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Wagner looked rusty and hesitant out there. He played 20 minutes, and only scored 7 points, the only time he hasn’t hit double figures this season. He also had a season-high 4 turnovers.

Brooks had another 0 point game, his 5th so far this season. In the last 4 games, he has scored 0, 4, 0, and 0 points.

The backup point guard, Zavier Simpson, didn’t do much better. He scored 2 points, but he did have 5 assists.

Teske had a quiet game, with 2 points and 6 rebounds.

Isaiah Livers didn’t do much with his 12 minutes off the bench: 2 points.

Jaaron Simmons played 3 minutes, and failed to score. He continues to slide down the bench.

Who Else Played

Austin Davis only played 3 minutes, and failed to score.

Ibi Watson played 4 minutes, and scored 3 points.

Who Didn’t Play

None of the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) played in this game.

The Big Picture

After 2 dominating wins over inferior opponents (Detroit and Alabama A&M), it was discouraging to see Michigan muddle through an uninspired win over another opponent they should have crushed. Chalk it up to rust (they had 9 days off between games) and a Christmas break “hangover”.

Predicted Win Total

Michigan won a “Should Win” game, so the Predicted Win Total doesn’t change.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 18

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

Week

Date

Predicted Win Total

1

10/30/2017

19

3

11/13/2017

19

4

11/20/2017

16

5

11/27/2017

16

6

12/04/2017

16

7

12/11/2017

16

8

12/18/2017

18

9

12/25/2017

18

10

01/01/2018

18

Mid-Term Grades

With 15 games down, and at least 16 more to go, it’s time for mid-term grades.

Freshman Eligibility

C.J. Baird (Inc.) – C.J. is a practice squad player. He’s played in 2 games, and has scored 2 points.

Eli Brooks (C+) – Eli has played in all 15 games this season, and started the last 11. He has scored 52 points (3.5 pts/game), and has 26 assists. He hasn’t been bad, but he hasn’t been that good either. He tends to disappear out there.

Austin Davis (C-) – Austin has played in 8 games, all off the bench, and has scored 15 points (1.9 pts/game). He still looks slightly dazed when he’s out there, like the game is still going too fast for him. He has plenty of potential, and good tools, he just needs to put it all together.

Isaiah Livers (C+) – Isaiah has played in all 15 games this season, all off the bench, and has scored 45 points (3.0 pts/game). He plays hard when he’s out there, and he shows flashes of why he was Mr. Basketball in Michigan last season, but he’s still learning the college game. He shoots too many 3-pointers for the percentage he makes (6-for-21 = 28.6%).

Naji Ozeir (Inc.) – Naji is a practice squad player. He’s played in 2 games, and has scored 2 points.

Rico Ozuna-Harrison (Inc.) – Rico is a practice squad player. He’s played in 1 game, and hasn’t scored yet.

Jordan Poole (B-) – Jordan has played in 13 of the 15 games so far this season, all off the bench. He has scored 82 points (6.3 pts/game), and is shooting a pretty good percentage from 3-point range (15-for-39 = 38.5%). He plays hard when he’s out there, but he still makes some dumb freshman mistakes. Once he cleans that up, he’ll be a very valuable player on this team.

Luke Wilson (Inc.) – Luke is a practice squad player. He’s played in 2 games, and hasn’t scored yet.

Sophomore Eligibility

Brent Hibbitts (Inc.) – Brent is a practice squad player. He’s played in 5 games, and has scored 9 points. Brent was redshirted his freshman season, and is a redshirt sophomore.

Charles Matthews (A) – Finally, an “A”! Charles has been very good this season, starting all 15 games, and leading the team in scoring (242 points, 16.1 pts/game). He is also the 2nd leading rebounder (77), and 2nd on the team in assists (48) and blocked shots (9). He is very athletic and acrobatic, with excellent body control. It’s fun to watch him play when he decides to take over a game. Charles was redshirted last season, due to transfer rules, and is a redshirt sophomore.

Zavier Simpson (B-) – Zavier was the starting point guard for the first 4 games, before Coach Beilein switched to Eli Brooks. He has played in all 15 games, and has scored 67 points (4.5 pts/game). He is shooting a nice percentage from 3-point range (9-for-21 = 42.9%), and is 3rd on the team in assists (42). He is a better defender than Brooks, and I’m kind of surprised that he hasn’t won back the starting point guard position.

Jon Teske (B-) – Jon has played in all 15 games this season, and started 2 of them, when Wagner was injured. He has scored 67 points (4.5 pts/game), and leads the team in blocked shots (11). He has been fine in his role as the backup center, and he looks a little more confident out there compared to last season.

Ibi Watson (C-) – Ibi has played in 14 of the 15 games this season, all off the bench, and has scored 46 points (3.3 pts/game). When he’s in the game, his role is to shoot 3-pointers, and he’s done that pretty well (9-for-22 = 40.9%). He just can’t seem to get off the bench very often.

Junior Eligibility

Moritz Wagner (B) – This season has been a little disappointing for Moe, especially compared to last season. He’s played in 13 of the 15 games so far, all as a starter, but he missed 2 games with a foot injury. He’s 2nd on the team in scoring (194 points, 14.9 pts/game), and he leads the team in rebounds (97). He has shown flashes of the brilliance he showed last season, especially in post-season play, but he has had long stretches of mediocre play. He has also been victimized on defense pretty often, and has given way to Teske for defensive reasons. If he can regain the magic he had at the end of last season, he can take Michigan far.

Senior Eligibility

Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (A-) – The only other “A” at this point. MAAR has started all 15 games, and is 3rd on the team in scoring (159 points, 10.6 pts/game). He’s shooting a decent percentage from 3-point range (24-for-62 = 38.7%), and he’s tied for the lead in free-throw percentage (21-for-24 = 87.5%). He has been pretty steady out there, and has played some good defense, but he’s been a quiet leader on a team that might occasionally need some firing up.

Duncan Robinson (B) – Duncan has started all 15 games this season, and he’s the 4th leading scorer (156 points, 10.4 pts/game). His role is clear: he’s the designated main 3-point gunner, and he’s been a little off this season. His 3-point shooting percentage is decent (34-for-91 = 37.4%), but we know that he’s capable of shooting 50-60%, not 37.4%. He had a terrible shooting slump for 3-4 games, but he appears to have broken out of it. If he can get his 3-point stroke back, he can take this team to the next level.

Jaaron Simmons (D) – Jaaron was supposed to be the starting point guard on this team. He has failed miserably. He has played in 13 games, all off the bench, and has scored 15 points (1.2 pts/game). At this point, it makes more sense to give most of the minutes to the two point guards of the future, Brooks and Simpson.

What’s Next

This week Michigan plays two games, both in the Big Ten. On Tuesday (01/02/2018, 7:00 p.m. EST, ESPN2), Michigan plays at Iowa, then on Saturday (01/06/2018, 12:00 p.m., BTN), they play Illinois in Crisler Arena.

Iowa is currently 9-6 (0-2 in the Big Ten), with no impressive wins, and a couple embarrassing losses (Louisiana and South Dakota State on a neutral court). It’s hard to win on the road in the Big Ten, so this will be a challenging game, but Michigan stands a good chance.

Illinois is currently 10-5 (0-2 in the Big Ten), with one decent win (Missouri), and one embarrassing loss (Eastern Illinois, in their exhibition game). They lost both of their early Big Ten games in overtime. This should be a close game, but Michigan should be favored at home.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!