Quick Look

The (#20) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they lost one and won the other. On Tuesday (02/06/2018), they lost at Northwestern 61-52, then on Sunday (02/11/2018), they won at Wisconsin 83-72. The loss and the win leave Michigan with a record of 20-7 (9-5 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

The good news: Michigan managed to win one of their two road games last week. One out of two ain’t bad. The bad news: While any road win in the Big Ten is a good win, that doesn’t mean that any road loss is understandable or forgivable. While the win in Madison is a big deal, the loss in Evanston was extremely embarrassing. It was right up there with the loss at Nebraska a couple weeks ago as the worst loss of the season. Michigan appeared to have the game under control, and led for the entire 1^st half, by as many as 10 points. They had a small lead at halftime (32-29), and held the lead until the 17:12 mark, when Northwestern went ahead for the first time, 35-33. Michigan never led again, falling behind by 10 points. They went stone cold, and let the game just slip away. Being held to 20 points in the 2^nd half by Northwestern is disgraceful.

The win at Wisconsin is a big deal. The Kohl Center has been a “house of horrors” for Michigan, with only one previous win since 2000, in the 2013-2014 season. Sure, Wisconsin is way down this season, but they’re still tough at home, and they really wanted to beat Michigan. Unfortunately for them, Michigan started the game hot, built a big lead, and managed to protect it down the stretch. UM never trailed, and led by 22 at halftime (44-22). They built the lead up to 25 points (53-28) at the 14:50 mark, and still led by 23 points (58-35) with 12:15 to go. That looked like an insurmountable lead, until Wisconsin went on a 12-0 run in just over 3 minutes to cut the lead to 11 points (58-47) with 8:52 left. The rest of the way, Michigan kept the lead in the 10-12 point range, but Wisconsin got as close as 7 points (79-72) with 39 seconds left, before Michigan put the game away with a 4-0 run.

Stats

The stats for the Northwestern game are horrible. Michigan shot terribly overall (17-for-44 = 38.6%), they shot 3-pointers terribly (5-for-22 = 22.7%), but they did shoot free throws reasonably well (13-for-19 = 68.4%). They were out-rebounded by Northwestern, again (32-27), and they lost the turnover battle (9-6). Only hitting five 3-pointers is disgraceful. It was just plain embarrassing.

The stats for the Wisconsin game are much better. Michigan shot well overall (28-for-50 = 56.0%), they shot 3-pointers well (9-for-20 = 45.0%), and they shot free throws pretty well (18-for-24 = 75.0%). They crushed Wisconsin on the boards (33-23), and they tied in the turnover battle (8-8). Michigan won this game with 3-point shooting.

Who Looked Good

The starters were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Isaiah Livers, Charles Matthews, Zavier Simpson, and Moritz Wagner for the Northwestern game, with Duncan Robinson starting in place of Livers for the Wisconsin game, after Livers injured his foot/ankle early in the Northwestern game.

Wagner was the star of both games. He averaged a double-double, with 20 points in each game and 9 and 11 rebounds. He was pretty efficient shooting (7-for-10 and 8-for-14), including 3-for-6 shooting 3-pointers in the Wisconsin game.

The only other Michigan player who hit double figures in both games was MAAR, with 11 and 15 points.

Robinson had a good game vs. Wisconsin (16 points), but was one of many Michigan players who had a miserable game vs. Northwestern (3 points). He hit 4-for-7 shooting 3-pointers vs. Wisconsin.

Matthews was the only other player to hit double figures in one game this week, with 11 points vs. Wisconsin. He had 5 points vs. Northwestern.

Simpson didn’t score much (6 and 4 points), but he did lead Michigan in assists in both games, with 5 and 6.

Jordan Poole provided some “instant offense” off the bench, with 5 and 8 points. He didn’t shoot well in the Northwestern game (1-for-6), but he did a little better vs. Wisconsin (2-for-4).

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Jon Teske had a quiet week: 0 and 4 points. He did a decent job spelling Wagner.

Eli Brooks played in the Northwestern game, but didn’t take a shot. He didn’t play in the Wisconsin game.

Jaaron Simmons didn’t play in the Northwestern game, but he did play in the Wisconsin game, and scored 3 points.

Ibi Watson played in both games, and scored 0 and 2 points.

Who Else Played

Livers only played 2 minutes, and scored 2 points, in the Northwestern game before he got injured. He didn’t play in the Wisconsin game.

Austin Davis played in the Wisconsin game (0 points) but not in the Northwestern game.

Who Didn’t Play

The practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) didn’t get into either game.

The Big Picture

It was a weird week, with one of the worst games this season (Northwestern) and one of the biggest road victories in a while (Wisconsin). At this point, Michigan is solidly in the NCAA Tournament, but they have to win a few more games to sew it up.

Predicted Win Total

The Northwestern game was a “toss up” game, but the Wisconsin game was a “should lose” game, so I’m bumping up the Predicted Win Total.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 22

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

Michigan plays 2 games this week, both at home. On Wednesday (02/14/2018, 6:30 p.m., BTN), Michigan plays Iowa, then on Sunday (02/18/2018, 1:00 p.m., CBS), they play (#13) Ohio State.

Think way back; Michigan played at Iowa way back in early January (01/02/2018), and beat them 75-68. Since then, Iowa hasn’t done much. They’re currently 12-15 (3-11 in the Big Ten), with wins over Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and losses to everyone else. Michigan should be able to win this one, as long as they play a solid game.

Think even further back; Michigan played at Ohio State way back in early December (12/04/2017), and lost to them 71-62. Since then, OSU has been the biggest surprise in the Big Ten in the last 20 years. They were predicted to come in last in the Big Ten, and they are currently all alone in 1^st place (13-1 in the league, 22-5 overall). Their only Big Ten loss was at home vs. Penn State, and they’ve beaten all the other contenders (Michigan State, Purdue, and Nebraska), and everyone else. This will be a tough game for Michigan, but they can beat OSU. They’ll need to play a flawless game, but they can do it. It’ll be Senior Day, so there will be a lot of emotion.

OSU’s game vs. Michigan back in December was a turning point in their season. Michigan was up 20 points (43-23) with 1:31 left in the 1^st half, and cruising to an easy win. That was the moment when OSU turned their season around. They finished the half with a 7-0 run, then started the 2^nd half with a 19-3 run to take the lead. The game was tied 60-60 with 3:38 left, and OSU closed the game on an 11-2 run for the win. They haven’t looked back since.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Quick Look

The (#24) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they won both of them. On Monday (01/29/2018), they beat Northwestern 58-47 in Crisler Arena, then on Saturday (02/03/2018), they beat Minnesota 76-73 (in overtime) in Crisler Arena. The two wins raise Michigan’s record to 19-6 (8-4 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

These were two of the ugliest wins of the season for Michigan. Both Northwestern and Minnesota are going to finish in the bottom half of the Big Ten standings, and both games were at home with a decent amount of rest. In both games, Michigan started out shooting terribly, and had to claw their way back into the games. They managed to avoid the upset, twice, but slow starts like that are very dangerous in a lose-and-go-home environment like the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments.

So, how bad were the beginnings of both games? Really bad. Against Northwestern, Michigan immediately fell behind 4-0 in the first 90 seconds, pulled within one point (4-3), fell behind by 4 again (7-3), pulled back within 2 points (7-5), then went for almost 6 minutes without a point. With 9:15 left in the first half, they still only had 5 points, in 10:45 of “action”. During that almost 6 minute scoreless stretch, they missed 5 shots (4 of them 3-point attempts) and had 2 turnovers. Fortunately, Northwestern also went cold at the same time, and only led by 9 points (14-5). At that point Michigan finally woke up, and ended the half on a 16-5 run to lead 21-19 at the break. UM opened the 2^nd half with some decent offense, and pushed their lead up to 8 points (32-24) with 16:21 to go. They went cold again, and let Northwestern back into the game with a 6-0 run, to make it just a 2-point UM lead (32-30) with 14:33 to go. UM pushed the lead back up to 7 points (39-32 at the 11:34 mark), let it slip back to 3 points (41-38 with 10:12 left), then pushed up to 10 points (48-38 with 5:24 to go). Once they got the lead up to double digits, they never let it slip below 7 points (52-45 at the 2:58 mark), and won by 11 points. Michigan never trailed in the 2^nd half, but they also never really put Northwestern away. They just kept the lead in the 8-10 point range for the last 5 minutes and ran out the clock.

The start of the Minnesota game was almost as bad as the Northwestern game. With 15:53 to go in the 1^st half, Michigan was down 8-2, shooting 1-for-6. They trailed the entire 1^st half, but they never let Minnesota get more than 6 points ahead. They were only down 2 points (34-32) at halftime, and they finally got their first lead (38-37) with 16:15 to go. It didn’t last long, and Minnesota used a 13-2 run to go up by 10 points (50-40) with 11:15 left in the game. Michigan inched closer, but Minnesota was still up by 7 points (56-49) at the 6:34 mark. Michigan went on an 8-0 run to take the lead again (57-56) with 3:13 to go, and it looked like they had enough of a lead (63-58) with 0:28 to go, when the lousy Big Ten refs took over. Michigan got the ball in cleanly, and while the Minnesota players were chopping away at the Michigan player, trying to commit an intentional foul, the refs called traveling! It was easily the worst call I’ve seen this season, and it gave Minnesota a chance to try a long 3-pointer to tie the game, which they did. Overtime was just as tense, but Michigan led most of the time, and scored the game-winning “and-one” basket with 0:04 to go.

It seems weird to say this about a losing opponent, but Minnesota has got to be the luckiest team I’ve seen in years. They hit very low percentage shots time after time in this game: spinning, out-of-control, just-throw-it-up prayers that banked in off the glass or spun around the rim 3-4 times before dropping. Michigan played pretty good defense, and forced Minnesota into long, contested, low-percentage 2-point shots, just as they hoped to, but Minnesota kept hitting them. Overall, Minnesota had exactly the same shooting percentage as Michigan (28-for-63 = 44.4%), but they hit about 80% of their “circus shots”.

Stats

The stats for the Northwestern game are miserable. Michigan shot poorly overall (21-for-50 = 42.0%), they shot 3-pointers very poorly (7-for-25 = 28.0%), and they shot free throws decently (9-for-14 = 64.3%). They were out-rebounded by Northwestern (34-28), but made up for it in the turnover battle (5-16). That’s how Michigan won the game: forcing Northwestern turnovers.

The stats for the Minnesota game are even worse than the Northwestern stats. Michigan shot a little better overall (28-for-63 = 44.4%), but they shot 3-pointers terribly (8-for-32 = 25.0%), and they shot free throws like they were blindfolded (12-for-28 = 42.9%). They did win the rebounding battle (43-36), and they tied in the turnover department (6-6). They should have lost this game with free throw shooting like that, but all those extra rebounds saved them.

Who Looked Good

The starters were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Isaiah Livers, Charles Matthews, Zavier Simpson, and Moritz Wagner.

MAAR was the hero of the Minnesota game, hitting the game-winning basket (and one) with 0:04 left, and he had double figures in both games (11 and 17). He was Michigan’s high scorer in the Minnesota game.

Matthews was the only other player to hit double figures in both games (14 and 13). He was Michigan’s high scorer in the Northwestern game, and he had 11 rebounds in the Minnesota game, for a double-double.

Wagner almost hit double figures in both games (8 and 16), and he had 10 rebounds vs. Minnesota for another double-double. He might have shot a few too many 3-pointers vs. Minnesota (3-for-9), but he’s a streak shooter, so he needs to keep shooting.

Duncan Robinson also almost hit double figures in both games (8 and 10). He had a rough time shooting 3-pointers (0-for-6 and 1-for-3), but he was 3-for-3 and 2-for-3 shooting 2-pointers. He was also the only Michigan player who didn’t miss a free throw (1-for-1) vs. Minnesota.

Simpson had a mediocre game vs. Northwestern (4 points), but a much better game vs. Minnesota (15 points). He had a terrible time shooting 3-pointers in the Minnesota game (1-for-8), but that one that he made was huge.

Jordan Poole came out firing in both games, with mixed results. He was 3-for-10 (2-for-6 from 3-point range) for 8 points vs. Northwestern, then 0-for-4 (all from 3-point range) for 0 points vs. Minnesota. It’s a shame he laid an egg in the Minnesota game, since the Maize Rage showed up in beachwear for a “Poole Party”. He tried, and he played hard, but he just couldn’t get anything going.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Livers had a quiet week: 3 and 5 points.

Jon Teske also had a quiet week: 2 and 0 points.

Eli Brooks played in both games, but didn’t take a shot in either, at least officially. He did put up a layup in the Minnesota game, but Teske interfered with it so it didn’t count.

Who Else Played

No one else played.

Who Didn’t Play

Just when it looked like Jaaron Simmons was established as the backup point guard, Coach Beilein switched back to Brooks. Simmons didn’t play at all this week.

Austin Davis, Ibi Watson, and the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) didn’t get into either game.

The Big Picture

Sure, Michigan won two more games, but it was very worrisome the way they did it. These were teams that Michigan should have dominated and beaten easily, but they didn’t. Four of Michigan’s last six games are on the road, and if they play like they did last week, they could easily lose all four of them. The slow starts have to go. So does the lousy free-throw shooting. Robinson has to start hitting 3-pointers again. If Michigan can get back to the form they showed when they beat Michigan State (in East Lansing!), they can beat everyone remaining on their schedule.

Predicted Win Total

Both games last week were “toss up” games, and Michigan won both of them, so I’m going to move the Predicted Win Total up one game. Wait, they’ve already won 19 games, and they’ve got 6 games left. Am I saying that they’re going to go 2-4 down the stretch? Yeah, I guess so, since four of those games are on the road.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 21

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

Michigan plays 2 games this week, both on the road. On Tuesday (02/06/2018, 7:00 p.m. EST, BTN), Michigan plays at Northwestern, then on Sunday (02/11/2018, 1:00 p.m. EST, CBS), they play at Wisconsin.

Didn’t we just play Northwestern? Yup, and we beat them, but not very convincingly. They won their next game (at Wisconsin), so they’re now 14-10 (5-6 in the Big Ten). Michigan can win in Evanston, but they have to clean up some of their bad habits: slow starts and poor free-throw shooting.

Wisconsin is currently 10-15 (3-9 in the Big Ten), with no impressive wins, and no embarrassing losses. They are WAY down from the last few years, but they are still dangerous. The Kohl Center has been a House of Horrors for Michigan recently, which is why I listed this game as a “Should Lose” game before the season. Considering who they have already lost to at home (Ohio State [83-58], Nebraska, and Northwestern), they are no longer unbeatable at home. Michigan stands a decent chance, if they can play a solid game.

Remember that stretch where Michigan played 4 games in 8 days? Well, it’s Wisconsin’s turn to do something like that. They play 4 games in 10 days. They already lost to Northwestern at home last Thursday (02/01/2018) and lost to Maryland on the road last Sunday (02/04/2018), then they play at Illinois on Thursday (02/08/2018) before playing Michigan at home on Sunday (02/11/2018). They should be good and tired when they play Michigan.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!