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MICHIGAN FOOTBALL 2018-TRAP AVOIDED AT RUTGERS 42 to 7

The 5th ranked Michigan Wolverines traveled to Piscataway, New Jersey to take on the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers University last Saturday.  The Wolverines were a 39.5 favorite.  Rutgers had not won a Big Ten game in six attempts.  The Wolverines had captured 6 straight Big Ten Wins.

Rutgers has not enjoyed a good football season this year under Head Coach Chris Ash, and obviously, the Scarlet Knights aren’t riding high currently, but they believe they are improving.  They have some talented personnel on offense, and special teams.

They proved this by tying the score 7-7 in the first quarter with an 80-yard scamper from scrimmage much to the distress and surprise of both the Wolverines and their fans.

While a group of Wolverines was in close pursuit, they could not catch the speedy Scarlet Knight.  It was a beautiful serpentine run by Rutgers’ Isaih Pacheco for six.

He was in the end zone before the Wolverines caught him but he had the company of several Wolverines as they tackled him in the end zone, including Chase Winovich.  This was the biggest mistake the Wolverines defense made all evening, and they did not make it again.  The same play was stuffed a couple of times later.

The Wolverines do not have a long history against the Scarlet Knights, but have now bested the them four out of their five encounters.

They have only played since Rutgers was admitted to the B1G in 2014.  The one M loss is still celebrated in New Brunswick (campus location), and at Piscataway (stadium location). It was their first Big Ten win after entry into the conference, and a nasty blow to M fans at the time of its occurrence.

That 24-26 loss had an Appalachian State quality about it.  It is not a surprise that it is still celebrated at Rutgers.  Understandable, as anybody would forget a 78-zip loss, and remember their first Big Ten win instead.

THE FIRST COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL GAME WAS AT NEW BRUNSWICK, NEW JERSEY-Rutgers v Princeton. The sesquicentennial of that 6 to 4 Rutgers victory will occur next year on November 6, 2019.  Wonder how many spectators attended that first game and what the price of admission was, if there was one.

When I read about this on the Rutgers pages there were the usual pejorative comments from disgruntled fans that emanate from struggling programs that are consistently losing.

Slowly but surely, Coach Ash is improving the product.  Only the Buckeye dreadnaught (52-3), and the Badgers torpedoed the Knights badly prior to the Wolverines, this season.

All the pro-Wolverine hype could lull a fan or a team to sleep. The Wolverines had much acknowledged superiority, but fortunately it did not prevent them from giving very satisfactory effort.  This was a classic example of a “trap game”. Only once did the Knights break a significant big play. Rutgers were out jousted and dominated in this tournament.

The Michigan Coaches are to be credited for having the Wolverines ready after three straight tough encounters with ranked teams.  They had both the will and the way to win. As was expected.  Rutgers played hard, had good schemes, and left some bruises.  Coach Jim Harbaugh lauded the efforts of both sides in his post-game press conference, and so did Rutgers, Coach Chris Ash.

OFFENSE AND DEFENSE were outstanding against the Knights, although, in truth, it was not one of the best defensive games of the season against the run.

In my opinion, the offensive player of the game was Shea Patterson. He tossed 18 times for 280-yards, and 3 TDs.

Coach Harbaugh said at the post game presser: “He (Patterson) really played well tonight. He just does everything you ask him to do. That was a really tough night to throw the ball, it reminded me of my days back in Solider Field with that wind and conditions. But he made some unbelievable throws with that swirling wind. Also, our receivers did a great job catching the ball in the elements. Our guys continue to do a really good job catching the ball. That was really impressive. Rutgers was doing a good job containing the run game, but the protection was terrific all night. The throw and catch part was difficult with the conditions, but they did it at as high a level as you could have.”

Shea is the “guts and glue” (as the late great Bob Ufer used to say) that holds M’s offense together this year.  He rolled right and left, hit receivers, handed off perfectly, threw for three TDs, threw no interceptions, made good RPO reads, and played in a poised and workmanlike fashion.

That WRs Nico Collins (3/56-yards, two TDs with a long of 36-yards), Donovan Peoples-Jones (5/83 and a long of 32), and Oliver Martin (3/35) made fine catches, kept a toe in bounds when required, and ran intelligent routes helped to make this an outstanding offensive performance.

TE Zach Gentry (3/42, long of 2) made an outstanding leaping catch. Chris Evans and Bell nabbed 3 each, for a combined 41-yards.

The WRs did have a couple of muffs, but they generally overcame the wind and are improving every game.

The OL was up to the task.  They pass protected well and opened hole for a number of backs.

Asked why M was 9 of 13 on third down conversions Rutgers’ Head Coach Chris Ash addressed the subject after the game by stating that “Can’t put it any other way. Good players make good plays. They pass protected well. And some of their play actions, we couldn’t get to the QB, and that’s really the difference”.

The OL also was a benefit to the running game.  In rushing for 2 scores, Karan Higdon blew past 1,000-yards to date for the season. It cannot be said that his game was among Karan’s best.  He did not have the best first half of his career.

Still, it has been a long time since an M RB has accomplished that for the Wolverines. Karan has earned every yard.

The leading rusher was Chris Evans who broke a late game 61-yard TD scamper, Chris ran 6/75-yards and 1 TD, for a 12.5 average. Tru Wilson ran 8/58, long of 15, with a 7.9-yard avg. Karan Higdon was 15/44 with a 2.8 avg.  Martin, Hewlett, Edwards Bell, Mason and Milton also carried.  The group totaled  40 carries for 204-yards, 3 TDs, and a 4.8-yard average.

The Wolverines totaled 453-yards of offense to Rutgers’ 252, Rutgers had only 59-yards through the air.

The Wolverines continue to show improvement game by game.

Chris Ash said that Rutgers’ had their best rushing performance in a long, long time, with but one “misfit” that occasioned Chris Evan’s 61-yard bee line to the end zone.  Other than that, he (Ash) thought they played a really good run game, and that it was their best rushing of the year.  Said the Wildcat helped some, and was part of the game plan.

The M defense was effective enough to win big on this afternoon, but maybe a little less aggressive than they were in the prior three games against the run. Against the passing attack they were lights out.

It is no surprise that after the three-game revenge tour they could have a little let down in crushing the running game.  The longest Rutgers play of the passing game was a trick play to a second- string Rutgers QB, Giovanni Rescigno, that went for 19-yards.

This is beginning to look like a consistently productive offense and defense. As good or better than any in the Big Ten.  I am certain Don Brown will cure any dysfunctions in the run defense by Hoosier time.

HOW THEY SCORED:  Rutgers received the Kick Off, and then the teams traded blows with no scoring effect for most of the 1st quarter until the 45 second mark.  Karan then ran it in from the 1 yard-line for a TD to complete an 8 play 59-yard drive. TE Zach Gentry had a 16-yard catch, Higdon, Evans and Mason got it to the one via short runs before Karan ran it in.  M-7, R-0.

Some seconds later Rutgers’ Pacheco breezed 80-yards to score via Rutgers’ best play of the game. M-7, R-7.  It was a most beautiful execution of a zone read play.

The Wolverines answered in the second quarter on another Higdon  1-yard TD run.   That completed a 12-play 65-yard drive.  Shea Patterson completed passes to Martin Oliver (7-yards),  Ronnie Bell (12-yards), Donovan Peoples-Jones (9-yards) to move the ball to the Rutgers  20. A couple of short runs and Higdon scored again.  This series was an example of Shea’s value to the Wolverines at the QB position. M-14, R-7

Next it was the Nico Collins show, as he caught a great throw by Patterson in the end zone.  Both the throw and the catch were perfection. This completed a 6-play, 53-yard drive for 6.  Collins had previously contributed to the drive with a 10-yard catch. M-21, R-7.

The half ended at the above score with the Wolverines firmly in control and receiving to start the second half.

Patterson went to the air again, and with effect.  First came an in-completion, then Gentry nabbed a 21-yard pass to the M 49. Peoples-Jones caught one for 32-yards. Oliver Martin was wide open in the end zone as the Wolverines made it look easy. It was a 6 play, 53-yard drive.  M-28, R-7.

The next M scoring drive started with a 13-yard Tru Wilson run. He then toted two for 8-yard each, and one for three.  Tru had his best Michigan performance in this game. A ten-yard pass to Collins got the score, completing the 5 play 43-yard drive. M-35, R-7.

The Wolverines finished the scoring for the game with a Chris Evans dash up the middle for 61-yards and the TD.  It seems that he is finally back to 100% after an injury plagued season. Good timing.

The Final was M-42, R-7

TAKEAWAY: This was a much-needed game for the Wolverines.  The offense was relatively ineffective running the ball, so Shea Patterson showed them the way to a win through the air.  This was a definite trap game, and the Wolverines prevailed, giving up only one big play, They can be happy with the result,

While the Northwestern Wildcats have clawed their way to Indy, the fate of the Wolverines regarding the West Division title is still in the making.  They must beat Indiana at home next week end, and the Columbus denizens in their lair the next week to face the Wildcats in Indy.

You can bet that the team and their coaches, are correctly taking it one game at a time, and are seeing only IU Red at this time, but the bigger picture can now come into view for fans.  In the shadows, beyond the Hoosier Red, one can catch glimpses of Scarlet tinged with Gray.  Even deeper into the shadows there lies a snarling Wildcat.

Michigan sorely needs to be in the Big Ten Championship title game.  They need a shot at another Big Ten Championship soon.  Some of us are getting old.

I think this set of Wolverines is up to the task.  They have the required coaching, talent, ability, and the will necessary  to make the required  team effort.

Go Blue!

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2018 MICHIGAN FOOTBALL By the Numbers Podcast Michigan 42 Penn State 7

Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer discuss Michigan’s 42-7 victory over Penn State using Clint’s modified S&P+ analysis methods that indicates Michigan is one of the top teams in the nation. Why Michigan’s offense is so much this season, how to attack the Michigan defense, and much more.

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Michigan Football By the Numbers: Penn State

The first three stops on the Revenge Tour have been overwhelming for the opponents.  The challenge for Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines will be to maintain the “one game at a time” focus for two more weeks versus Rutgers and Indiana without minds wandering to Columbus for the Grand Finale.

What is S&P+
The original system was based on Success rate and equivalent Points per play. It was an attempt at an OPS-style measure for football, a look at both efficiency and explosiveness. As so many things do, however, it has grown more complicated.In its current state, S&P+ is based around the core concepts of the Five Factors of winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers.  Full Explanation 
TABLE: FIVE FACTORS

OFFENSE

Memo to Jim Harbaugh & Warde Manuel: Please find a way to lock Ed Warriner up with a long-term contract!  The question marks we all saw along the offensive line during fall camp, and versus Notre Dame in week one, have been transformed to exclamation points in front of our eyes.  After wearing down what used to be the #1 rush defense two weeks ago in East Lansing, Michigan’s offensive line allowed just two negative-yardage plays versus the Nittany Lions’ defensive front that came in leading the Big Ten in that category.  In the last three Big Ten games versus Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Penn State, the Wolverines’ ground-and-pound strategy has been led masterfully by the big guys in the trenches.  Over and above the rushing stats, and keeping Shea Patterson clean, Runyan Jr., Bredeson, Ruiz, Owenu, and Bushell-Beatty have enabled a multi-faceted offense because they are executing multiple zone and gap schemes.  Michigan has proven that they are capable of adapting their offensive approach to whatever an opponent gives them.  From this point forward, only individual lack of execution could still stand in the way of continued success for the offense.

DEFENSE

The King of Defensive Coordinators has done it again.  Don Brown’s squad smothered the Nittany Lions into the dirt.  When isolating to only successful plays, Penn State actually managed to be more explosive than Michigan (SEE: IsoPPP in the Five Factors table).  However, those chunk plays for Penn State seemed like gasps for air from a panicked swimmer in a “Jaws” sequel.  Trace McSorley was clearly less than 100% from the moment he stepped onto the field at Michigan Stadium.  It’s a safe bet that he left Ann Arbor even less healthy than he came in.  The Wolverines sacked PSU quarterbacks five times, and forced three turnovers.  Brandon Watson’s interception return for a touchdown matches the lone touchdown that Penn State was fortunate to salvage versus the backups on the final drive. Let me say it this way: Jim Harbaugh could have allowed the Nittany Lions to consider it a touchdown if they crossed Michigan’s 40-yard-line, and the Wolverines still would have won 42-14 (Trips inside opp40: Michigan 7 Penn State 2).

S&P+ THROUGH WEEK 10

MICHIGAN S&P+
Overall: 25.4, 3rd (up 1)
Offense: 35.2, 24th (up 6)
Defense: 10.0, 1st (same)

REGULAR SEASON PROJECTIONS vs. RESULTS

vs. Penn State UM 42 PSU 7
Pregame Midpoint S&P+: UM by 5.8, 9-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 24, 8-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 8.3

NEXT UP

@ Rutgers: Overall -19.0, 126th
M Offense 35.2, (25th) vs. O Defense 32.3 (94th), Midpoint: 33.75
M Defense 10.0 (1st) vs. O Offense 13.1 (128th), Midpoint: 11.55

PREGAME EDGE: Michigan
The midpoint of S&P+ ratings gives a 22.2 point edge to Michigan. I don’t know if that’s enough to cover the halftime score. Rutgers has plummeted to fifth-from-the-bottom among FBS schools.

GAME WEEK UPDATE: I foresee a lot of carries for Chris Evans, and Tru Wilson. If 2016 is any indication, the Wolverines will want to execute a few new plays, and would like to be explosive in front of their east coast recruits. There are really two key things for this game: 1) stay healthy 2) stay focused on the task at hand.
Michigan 48 Rutgers 3 (PRESEASON: Michigan 34 Rutgers 3)

TL; DR SUMMARY

The Michigan Football team is building to a November crescendo exactly the way Jim Harbaugh envisioned when he overhauled his coaching and strength training staff last winter. Every goal set by the Wolverines is starting to appear on the horizon. Now the challenge is to maintain focus on all three Big Ten foes who remain in the way.  Onward!

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Nothing But ‘Net – Week #02 – 11/05/2018 – The (Yawn) Exhibition Game

The (#19) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played their first and only exhibition game on Friday (11/02/2018) in Crisler Arena, and they pounded poor Northwood University 90-58. Since it was only an exhibition game, Michigan’s record is still 0-0.

I enjoyed Question & Answer Time so much last week, I’m going to do it again. If you have any questions you’d like me to answer, send them to dmontag@umgoblue.com.

Q: So, what happened?

A: Michigan trounced an overmatched opponent in what was realistically a controlled scrimmage/dunk practice. I get it: an exhibition game is a good way to work out some of the kinks, give the new guys a chance to get rid of the “first game jitters”, and for Coach Beilein to try some different lineup combinations in a “can’t lose” situation, but it’s hard to get excited about an exhibition game, and it’s hard to learn anything about the team from it.

Q: How did the game go?

A: About what you’d expect from a game against a 6th place GLIAC team: Michigan overpowered them and won on sheer athletic ability, not with any finesse or style. UM raced out to a 19-10 lead at the 12:14 mark in the 1st half, and kept the lead in the 10-15 point range for the rest of the half. It was 41-26 at halftime. Early in the 2nd half, Michigan pushed the lead up over 20 points, and that was the game. The lead got as high as 35 points (86-51) before the final 32-point margin.

Q: Who were the starters?

A: The starters were: Ignas Brazdeikis, Charles Matthews, Jordan Poole, Zavier Simpson, and Jon Teske. The only surprise here was Iggy starting instead of Isaiah Livers, who started most of the games last season. Livers was the first player off the bench. We’ll see if this is the starting lineup for the real games.

Q: Who were the “mainstream” subs?

A: The subs who played in the “real” part of the game (not “garbage time”) were: Eli Brooks, Austin Davis, David DeJulius, Brandon Johns, Jr., and Livers.

Q: Who played in “garbage time”?

A: With the game a runaway/blowout, Coach Beilein emptied his bench in the last 4 minutes, so everyone played: C.J. Baird, Colin Castleton, Adrien Nuñez, and Luke Wilson.

Q: Who looked good?

A: That’s a tough one. Six players scored in double figures, with Matthews as the leading scorer with 15 points, but nobody really looked “good”. Among the starters, Simpson (5-for-5), Teske (4-for-5), and Iggy (6-for-9) were the most efficient, but their made baskets were mostly dunks and layups. The other 2 starters (Matthews and Poole) didn’t shoot very well (5-for-12 each), and scored most of their points at the rim. No one made more than one 3-pointer, even though Poole hoisted up 4 of them. Teske did try, and make, a 3-pointer!

For the mainstream subs, Brooks (2-for-2), Davis (1-for-1), and Johns (1-for-1) were certainly efficient, but didn’t shoot much. Livers shot a lot, but not very efficiently (5-for-9) for 10 points. Brooks was definitely the most improved player from last season.

For the scrubs, Baird (1-for-1) hit a 3-pointer, and Castleton (1-for-2) had a nice putback offensive rebound.

Q: Who looked not-so-good?

A: That’s also a tough one. No one looked bad, but a couple players never got a chance to do anything interesting: Nuñez and Wilson.

Q: How were the team stats?

A: Deceptive. Overall, UM shot a good percentage (37-for-62 = 59.7%), but most of the made baskets were dunks or layups. The 3-point shooting (5-for-14 = 35.7%) was shaky, and the mid-range shooting was just as bad. One of the biggest weaknesses last season, free throw shooting, was a minor problem in this game: 11-for-16 = 68.8%. That’s not bad, but it’s not very good either. As expected, Michigan won the rebounding battle easily (41-28), but it was surprising that they barely won the turnover battle (15-19). 15 turnovers is not very good, but it’s understandable in a sloppy exhibition game.

Q: What are the areas of concern?

A: Outside shooting, turnovers, and defensive rebounding. Michigan missed their first nine 3-point attempts, and just about every shot from more than 5 feet out, and they allowed a much smaller Northwood team to get 12 offensive rebounds, leading to 12 second-chance points. I’m assuming that the coaches will get this cleaned up.

Q: What did we learn?

A: We learned that exhibition games can be boring, and that they don’t tell us much. We did get a rough idea of which of the freshmen are college-ready (Iggy and Johns) and which ones need more work (the other three).

Q: What’s next?

A: Michigan plays two games this week: the first regular season game is this Tuesday (11/06/2018, 8:30 p.m., BTN) vs. Norfolk State in Crisler Arena, and they play again on Saturday (11/10/2018, 7:30 p.m., BTN+) vs. Holy Cross, also in Crisler. These are games that Michigan should win easily.

Both of these games are the “Campus Round” of the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall Of Fame Tip-Off Tournament. The four main teams in the “Naismith Bracket” (Michigan, George Washington, Providence, and South Carolina) all play 2 “Campus Round” games against teams in the “Springfield Bracket” on their home courts, but they all advance to the “Naismith Bracket” in Uncasville, Connecticut (where?) on 11/17 and 11/18. The four smaller teams (Norfolk State, Holy Cross, Stony Brook, and Siena) also play in Uncasville in their own bracket on 11/16 – 11/18.

That’s it for this week. Come on down to Crisler on Tuesday and Saturday for the games, and drop by Sections 209/210 to say hi.

Go Blue!