UMGOBLUE.COM Michigan Wolverine Football & Basketball
By Fans…For Fans Since 1999
Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer discuss Jim Harbaugh’s first 5 seasons at Michigan compared to other notable coaches from other programs.
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The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games this week, both on the road, and they won both of them. On Wednesday (02/19/2020), they beat Rutgers 60-52 in Piscataway (NJ), then on Saturday (02/22/2020), they beat Purdue 71-63 in West Lafayette (IN). The two wins raise Michigan’s record to 18-9 (9-7 in the Big Ten). Michigan is now in 7th place in the Big Ten.
What Happened?
These were two very impressive wins. Rutgers had been undefeated (17-0) at home so far this season, and Michigan has always had a tough time winning at Purdue, so both games were far from a sure thing. Michigan played well in both games, and deserved to win them both.
After their traditional slow start, Michigan finally pulled ahead of Rutgers 8-6 with 16:03 left in the 1st half. They pushed the lead as high as 8 points (16-8) at the 13:03 mark, then let Rutgers climb back into the lead, 22-21 with 7:05 to go in the half. The lead went back and forth for the rest of the half, with Rutgers hitting a 3-pointer at the buzzer to lead 31-28 at halftime. Did I mention slow starts? That applies to the 2nd half as well: Rutgers went on a 6-0 run to start the 2nd half, making it 37-28 with 17:40 to go. It took Michigan all the way to the 10:07 mark to finally pull ahead, 42-41. They never trailed again, getting the lead as high as 9 points a couple times, and winning by 8.
Michigan had a much better start in the Purdue game, leading 3-2 at the 18:11 mark. Purdue went ahead by 2-4 points for a couple minutes, then UM went back ahead 10-9 with 12:50 to go. Purdue took the lead for the last time (11-10) with 11:26 left in the half, and then Michigan went ahead for good 12-11 at the 10:12 mark. Michigan slowly pushed the lead up to 15 points, which is where it stood at halftime (36-21). Michigan kept the lead in the 13-15 point range for most of the 2nd half, but Purdue finally got it down to 8 points a few times, although that was as close as they got, with Michigan winning by 8 points.
Stats
The stats for the Rutgers game are solid, but nothing special. Michigan shot fairly well overall (21-for-47 = 44.7%), they didn’t shoot 3-pointers very well (6-for-23 = 26.1%), and they shot free throws decently (12-for-18 = 66.7%). They lost the rebounding battle (37-34) and the turnover battle (10-9). They won the game with defense, holding Rutgers to 22-for-63 (34.9%) overall shooting, 3-for-18 (16.7%) from 3-point range.
The stats for the Purdue game are worse than the Rutgers stats. Michigan shot poorly overall (25-for-65 = 38.5%), they shot 3-pointers poorly (6-for-25 = 24.0%), and they shot free throws poorly (15-for-23 = 65.2%). They lost the rebounding battle (45-39), but they did win the turnover battle (3-12). Once again, they won the game with defense.
Who Started?
The starters for the Rutgers game were Eli Brooks, Brandon Johns, Jr., Zavier Simpson, Jon Teske, and Franz Wagner. Johns started in place of Isaiah Livers, who was injured, again. Fortunately, he was recovered from his injury by the Purdue game, so he started in that game instead of Johns.
Who Looked Good?
Wagner was the only Michigan player to hit double figures in both games, with 12 points vs. Rutgers and (team high) 22 points vs. Purdue. He finally shot a good percentage from 3-point range (3-for-5) in the Purdue game, but had a rough time from deep in the Rutgers game (1-for-6). He was the leading rebounder in the Rutgers game, with 8.
Livers looked good in the one game he played (Purdue), with 19 points and 6 rebounds. He didn’t shoot very well (5-for-11, 1-for-5 from deep), but he did shoot free throws well: 8-for-8.
Simpson had one good game (team high 16 points vs. Rutgers) and one bad game (4 points vs. Purdue). He actually played pretty well in the Purdue game, except for his shooting: 0-for-10 overall, 0-for-5 from 3-point range, and 4-for-8 shooting free throws.
Teske had one mediocre game (5 points vs. Rutgers) and one decent game (11 points vs. Purdue). He needs to get his offensive game going again.
Brooks didn’t hit double figures in either game (9 and 4 points), but he played well. He missed most of the 2nd half of the Purdue game with a nose injury.
David DeJulius played well off the bench, scoring 10 and 6 points.
Austin Davis continued to play well, although not as well as the past few weeks: 2 and 3 points.
Colin Castleton only played in the Rutgers game, and he did well, with 5 points and 4 rebounds.
Who Looked Not-So-Good?
Brandon Johns, Jr. had a lousy week, with 1 and 2 points.
Adrien Nuñez only played in the Rutgers game, and failed to score.
Who Else Played?
As mentioned above, Livers didn’t play in the Rutgers game, due to injury.
Who Didn’t Play?
The practice squad (C.J. Baird, Cole Bajema, Jaron Faulds, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) didn’t play in either game.
What Does It Mean?
This was another good week for Michigan. After a terrible start (0-5) in true road games, Michigan has now won 4 true road games in a row. They have won their last 5 games in a row, and 7 out of their last 8 games. These results have helped their chances for making the NCAA Tournament greatly. There are 4 games left in the regular season, and they need to win at least 2 of them to make the Big Dance.
What’s Next?
This week, Michigan plays two games, one at home and one on the road. On Thursday (02/27/2020, 7:00 p.m., ESPN2), they play Wisconsin in Crisler Arena, then on Sunday (03/01/2020, 4:00 p.m., CBS), they play at (#25) Ohio State.
This is Michigan’s only game against Wisconsin this season. Wisconsin is currently 17-10 (10-6 in the Big Ten), tied with 3 other teams for 2nd place. They have beaten Ohio State (twice), Penn State, and Maryland, but they have lost to St. Mary’s, Richmond, New Mexico, Purdue, and Minnesota. They have a lot of height (two 7’0” players, a 6’11” player, and a 6’10” player), and a couple stars (D’Mitrik Trice and Brad Davison). They are tough at home (13-1), but not so much on the road (4-6). Michigan can certainly beat them, but they’ll have to play the way they’ve been playing lately to do it. Anything less than their “A” game won’t cut it.
Michigan has already played, and lost to, OSU this season. Back on 02/04/2020, OSU won in Crisler 61-58. That was the game where the refs called a “flagrant 1” on Simpson with 33 seconds left, handing the game to OSU. Since then, OSU has gone 3-2, with wins over Rutgers, Purdue, and Maryland, and losses to Wisconsin and Iowa. They are now 18-9 (8-8 in the Big Ten), in 10th place. They still have the Wesson boys, and they’re still going to be tough to beat, especially in Columbus. However, if Michigan can play the way then did vs. Rutgers and Purdue, they stand a fighting chance.
Check back next week to see how Michigan did.
Go Blue!
Sunday’s win marked the 105th win of Teske’s and Simpson’s career, making them the winningest Michigan men’s basketball players in the program’s history. Juwan Howard commented on the performance of the duo during the game, saying that Simpson “made some great decisions with the basketball; he did a really good job of controlling the temp of the game . . . it was a very solid game for him.”
Howard also spoke at length about how disciplined and how mature this team is. His players are also mirroring that mantra, with Franz Wagner and Brandon Johns Jr. speaking at length about the determination and dedication the team has found approaching tournament season, with Johns Jr. commenting on the outlook of the team, “I feel like we’re back in the beginning of the year a little bit; we’re all just so connected, trusting each other, knocking down shots, trusting in our game; it just feels great.”
Howard’s ability to bring the team together has clearly been a top priority and based on the looks of the team at this point in the season, it has paid off. Johns Jr. gives credit for the team’s success to the team bonding that Howard has organized, “We’re having more team-bonding sessions, just really getting to know each other more, understanding each other, as well as working out together.” And the bonding has clearly helped, with both Brookes and Johns Jr. commenting that they are back to being the same team as they were earlier this season when they were 7-0.
With the team finding its rhythm and Livers on the road to recovery, the Wolverines appear mentally and physically ready to face Rutgers on their home court, and hopefully end the Scarlet Knight’s undefeated home record tonight.
The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games this week, and they won both of them. On Wednesday (02/12/2020), they beat Northwestern 79-54 in Evanston (IL), then on Sunday (02/16/2020), they beat Indiana 89-65 in Crisler Arena. The two wins raise Michigan’s record to 16-9 (7-7 in the Big Ten). Michigan is now tied for 8th place in the Big Ten.
What Happened?
After starting the season 0-5 in true road games, Michigan has now won 2 in a row, with a virtual road win in there when they beat Rutgers in Madison Square Garden, technically a neutral site game. Sure, the two teams they beat are the bottom two teams in the league (Nebraska and Northwestern), but any road win is a good win this season. And, Michigan didn’t just win the game at Northwestern, they dominated. Michigan had their traditional slow start, trailing 4-0 at the 14:29 mark, 9-3 at the 13:55 mark, then 13-6 at the 12:26 mark, before they finally got going. They ripped off a quick 14-2 run, to go up 20-15 with 8:24 to go, then pushed the lead to 15 points (33-18) with 2:42 left. They still led by 15 (38-23) at halftime. They opened the 2nd half with a nice 10-2 run to put the game out of reach, 48-25, with 16:01 left, then they just toyed with Northwestern the rest of the way. The closest NU got was 12 points (58-46) with 7:00 to go, but Michigan pushed the lead back into the 20s, and kept it there until the final horn. It was a dominating victory.
In the IU game, the lead seesawed back and forth for the first 6 minutes, before Michigan went ahead for good at the 13:32 mark. Michigan pushed the lead as high as 12 points a few times in the 1st half, settling for a 7 point lead (41-34) at halftime. IU got it down to 5 points (41-36) in the opening minute of the 2nd half, but that was as close as they’d get. UM pushed the lead into the 10-12 point range, then into the 18-20 point range, and kept it there the rest of the game, winning by 24 points. It was also a dominating victory.
Stats
The stats for the Northwestern game are solid. Michigan shot well overall (30-for-64 = 46.9%), they shot 3-pointers well (7-for-20 = 35.0%), and they shot free throws well (12-for-15 = 80.0%). They won the rebounding battle handily (45-32), as well as the turnover battle (8-10). They dominated in every phase of the game.
The stats for the IU game are impressive. Michigan shot very well overall (31-for-54 = 57.4%), they shot 3-pointers very well (9-for-17 = 52.9%), and they shot free throws well (18-for-22 = 81.8%). They won the rebounding battle convincingly (37-21), but lost the turnover battle (8-7). Michigan won this one with 3-point shooting, holding IU to 3-for-12 from deep.
Who Started?
The starters for both games were Eli Brooks, Isaiah Livers, Zavier Simpson, Jon Teske, and Franz Wagner. This is the “real” starting lineup, when everyone is healthy.
Who Looked Good?
Brooks hit double figures in both games (18 and 13 points), and was the leading scorer in the NU game. He shot a good percentage from 3-point range in the NU game (4-for-8), but not so good vs. IU (1-for-4).
Livers was the only other Michigan player in double figures for both games (17 and 12 points). He had a rough time shooting 3-pointers in the NU game (0-for-5), but he got better in the IU game (2-for-4).
Wagner had a mediocre game vs. NU (5 points), but he was the leading scorer in the IU game with 16 points.
Simpson also had a mediocre game vs. NU (4 points), but a good game vs. IU (12 points). He also had 11 assists vs. IU, for a double-double.
Brandon Johns, Jr. was another player with a mediocre game vs. NU (4 points), but a good game vs. IU (14 points). He shot 3-for-3 from 3-point range vs. IU.
David DeJulius had a decent week, with 7 and 2 points. He played a lot of point guard, and he did a nice job.
Austin Davis is getting better every game. He is now the most effective big man on the team, ahead of Teske. He scored 9 points in each game this week, and he played solid defense. He shot 4-for-4 vs. NU and 4-for-6 vs. IU. For the season, he is shooting 37-for-51 (72.5%), the 2nd best percentage on the team.
Colin Castleton played in both games, and he contributed. He had 5 points vs. NU and 2 points vs. IU.
Cole Bajema also played in both games, and made a 3-pointer in each game. His shot vs. IU was from about 26 feet to beat the shot clock. He is the leading shooter on the team this season, shooting 8-for-10 (80.0%) overall, and 3-for-5 (60.0%) from 3-point range.
Who Looked Not-So-Good?
Teske had a quiet week, with 6 points in each game. He did have 8 and 7 rebounds. The team needs him to get back to playing the way he did in the first half of the season.
Who Else Played?
Adrien Nuñez played in both games, and scored 1 point vs. NU.
C.J. Baird played in the IU game, but failed to score.
Who Didn’t Play?
The rest of the practice squad (Jaron Faulds, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) didn’t play in either game.
What Does It Mean?
This was a good week for Michigan. True, they were favored in both games, but they played well, and won convincingly. These results helped their chances for making the NCAA or NIT Tournaments, and improved things in the Big Ten race. There are 6 games left in the regular season, and they need to win at least 4 of them to make the NCAA Tournament. They have now won enough to make the NIT Tournament.
What’s Next?
This week, Michigan plays two games, both on the road. On Wednesday (02/19/2020, 7:00 p.m. EST, BTN), they play at Rutgers, then on Saturday (02/22/2020, 2:00 p.m. EST, ESPN), they play at Purdue.
Michigan has already played, and beaten, Rutgers this season. Back on 02/01/2020, Michigan beat (#25) Rutgers 69-63 in Madison Square Garden, which was technically a neutral site game, but actually a home game for Rutgers. Now, Michigan gets to play them in the RAC (Rutgers Athletic Center), where they’re 17-0 this season. They are currently 18-8 overall (9-6 in the Big Ten). This will be a challenging game.
Michigan has also already played, and beaten, Purdue this season. Back on 01/09/2020, Michigan beat Purdue 84-78 in 2OT in Crisler Arena. They are currently 14-12 (7-8 in the Big Ten). This will also be a challenging game. Michigan has had a hard time winning in West Lafayette.
Check back next week to see how Michigan did.
Go Blue!
Last January, Phil and I discussed a comparison of Jim Harbaugh’s 4-year coaching record to the last 4 years of Lloyd Carr’s coaching career (Harbaugh and Carr each had an advantage in 7 metrics, with 3 ties). My general feeling was that Harbaugh had returned Michigan to the level at which Lloyd had left it. In my eyes, that made the 2019 season pivotal for the Harbaugh era. Phil and I wondered whether the program would continue to rise, and I was certainly optimistic.
Now, in February of 2020, we have more information to process, and we can complete a 5-year analysis. After Michigan completed a frustrating 9-4 season in 2019, and the 2003 Big Ten Championship season (10-3) gets added to the Carr side of the ledger, the comparison swings in Lloyd Carr’s favor. Carr has an advantage on 7 metrics, Harbaugh in 4, with 2 ties. The advanced metrics were ignored for lack of 2003 & 2004 data, but Lloyd’s 3-year average would have been 3 more wins for him. This seemed like bad news for a Harbaugh optimist like myself. So, I wanted to extend the comparison to see how the Harbaugh era, as it stands right now, compares to some other notable college football coaches.
In addition to Lloyd Carr, I chose these coaches to compare to Harbaugh: Jim Tressel, Urban Meyer, Mark Dantonio, Nick Saban, Dabo Swinney, Brian Kelly, James Franklin, & Chris Petersen. From the Carr comparison, my curiosity immediately jumped to Jim Tressel’s final five seasons at Ohio State. After completing that comparison, I wanted a better apples-to-apples comparison so I wanted to use the first five seasons (of their current tenure) for the rest of the coaches I selected. In addition to comparing the coaches’ records through their first five seasons, I also wanted to be able to use consistent metrics. The advanced statistical rankings didn’t exist back into the early 2000s, and recruiting has also changed significantly since then. Each metric was compared head-to-head with Harbaugh’s results to create an Advantage %. Records and stats came from Sports-Reference.com. Recruiting rankings came from 247sports.com. F+, FEI, & S&P+ rankings come from FootballOutsiders.com. Here are the 17 metrics that I compared:
The summary table above lists the coaches from least favorable comparison for Jim Harbaugh (Jim Tressel – final 5 seasons) to most favorable (James Franklin) sorting by ascending Harbaugh Advantage Percentage. Using this method, Jim Harbaugh falls between Lloyd Carr (final 5 seasons) and Chris Petersen’s 5-year tenure at Washington.
If we only look at the initial 5-year start for each coach (removing Tressel & Carr), it’s clear that Nick Saban and Urban Meyer are in a league of their own. Urb won a national title during the first playoff season in year 3, and made a return to the playoff in year 5. Saban won his 2nd national title at Alabama in year five, and went back-to-back in year six.
Once you move past those two historically successful coaches, there is a very tight grouping between Jim Harbaugh and the other 5 coaches I selected. Each coach averaged a 9-4 record through his first 5 seasons. I was surprised that using my Advantage Percentage, Harbaugh compares favorably to all 5 of those coaches, despite Brian Kelly reaching the BCS Championship game in year 3. I also included each coach’s Year 6 record for a possible glimpse into the future. Year 6 results range from unacceptable (7-6 for Dantonio) to achievable (11-2 in 2019 for Franklin).
One other interesting note on Big Ten record: If Harbaugh had managed one more B10 victory, his average record would have rounded up to 7-2, and it would have been +1 over Carr. Had he suffered one more loss, the average record would have rounded to 6-3 and been -1 to Carr. The program has clearly returned to the Carr level. I think we’re all very anxious to take the next step forward.