Category: SP+

WEEK 5 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 48-42 3OT, Michigan by 6 over Rutgers
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 19.3 (-13.3)
CD Projection: Michigan by 6 (✔)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 5 RECAP @ Rutgers

Admittedly, it felt weird to be treating a week 5 trip to Rutgers as a must win.  But, it absolutely was a must win game for Michigan, and for Jim Harbaugh.  They won, and that matters a lot.  There were still a litany of errors to correct for this coaching staff, and for these players.  But in the end, Michigan finally managed to make some key plays in big spots.  This will prove to be a memorable lesson in how to win for these players, especially those with very little game experience.

I hope everyone is prepared for a very fast transfer from the Joe Milton hype train to the Cade McNamara hype train.  McNamara looked very sharp after taking over for Milton in the second quarter.  He was 27-36 (75%) for 260 yards and 4 TDs.  Perhaps more importantly, once the offense forced Rutgers to defend the whole field, the running game was able to find some creases.  There is still a lot of work to do to bolster the depth while three of the five starting lineman recover from injuries.  Hassan Haskins seems to have stepped forward to gather more carries than the other three running backs.  However, Chris Evans had perhaps the play of the game on a 4th & 5 conversion in the 4th quarter.  Josh Gattis finally seemed to get into a rhythm for the first time since October 24th in Minneapolis.

On first glance, this game was a lot like the rest of the 2020 performances for Don Brown’s defensive unit.  There were still huge chunk plays given up through the air to a Rutgers QB who was averaging 5.3 yards per pass attempt coming in.  Rutgers managed 6.8 yards per called pass play tonight against Michigan.  There were a few glimmers of hope, however.  Early on, we saw a flash of speed off the ball from Chris Hinton.  If he emerges as an interior threat, this defense immediately improves.  We also saw Dax Hill make a technique correction from early in the game to the end.  In the 1st quarter, Dax made a passive play on a deep ball and the WR high-pointed a 43 yard bomb to set up Rutgers’ first score.  On the final play of the game, in a similar coverage technique, Dax left no doubt by going up high to snatch his first interception of the season. 

Giles Jackson continues to show his propensity for being a playmaker.  Today, it was as a kick returner.  His 95-yard touchdown return to open the 2nd half was a huge part of why Michigan was able to execute a comeback victory.  When Rutgers kicked away from Jackson, Blake Corum was very capable of converting short kicks into good field position also.  Michigan was very fortunate that their explosive return game was able to pick up the place kicking.  Three missed field goals nearly cost Michigan this game in regulation, and in overtime.  One missed field goal was affected by a poor snap, but the other two were clearly pushed right by Quinn Nordin.  I expect Michigan’s special teams unit will sink even lower in next week’s SP+ rankings.