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By the Numbers: Game 15 CFP Final vs. Washington

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines came back to force overtime on the Alabama Crimson Tide.  Then Blake Corum and the Michigan defense put the finishing touches on an epic 27-20 victory in the Rose Bowl to qualify for the CFP National Championship game.

NEXT UP: vs. Washington: SP+ 12th, 18.8

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 12.2, Michigan Win Probability 76%

The post-bowl SP+ rankings show why Bill Connelly is constantly tweaking the algorithm, especially as college football changes over time.  Michigan slid to #2 overall in the rankings because Georgia won by 60 over Florida State.  There is currently no way for the model to adjust for significant injuries or opt-outs, so the dozen or so missing players for the Noles were not accounted for. 

Michigan Offense (12th) vs. Washington Defense (44th) 

A huge advantage for Michigan exists when they have possession against the Huskies’ defense.  It is not a bad defense, especially in high leverage moments.  However, the Wolverines played eight opponents with defensive units ranked higher than Washington’s.  I expect Sherrone Moore to do what he’s done best all season.  Michigan will look for run-pass balance early on, but will rely on Blake Corum and the running game to wear down the Huskies and keep Michael Penix Jr. on the Washington sideline.

Michigan Defense (1st) vs. Washington Offense (4th)

Both fan bases point to this strength-on-strength match up and warn the other side that they haven’t seen a unit like this in 2023.  While it’s true given the context of this season, I feel most comfortable with Michigan’s defense preparing for a Heisman contender at quarterback with All American wide receivers.  That’s because the entire defensive philosophy and scheme was designed to contain CJ Stroud, and the Ohio State wide receiver room.  Penix could very likely throw for over 300 yards again on Monday night.  In 2021, Stroud threw for 394 yards and two touchdowns himself.  The key will be whether Michigan can make key plays inside their own 40 yard line to force field goal attempts, or come up with 4th down stops.  

PREDICTION: The culmination of this amazing 2023 season has finally arrived.  The story started to build 12 full months ago when upperclassmen like Blake Corum, Michael Barrett, and Zak Zinter were considering their returns to Ann Arbor.  Immediately, the bar was set as high as possible when Corum declared to Crisler Arena in February that this team would win a National Championship.  Then, during the early season the Wolverines started rolling comfortably in each game.  The star players rarely played much in the second half of games, allowing depth players to get a significant number of snaps on both sides of the ball.  But then the tougher part of the schedule arrived, and something unexpected happened: the depth guys were still getting snaps at big moments of the big games!  

After reading, listening, talking (check out the preview podcast), and processing a lot of data about how this game could go, I think Michigan’s greatest edge might be their depth.  Wide receiver Tyler Morris just scored his first career touchdown to take the lead over Alabama in the Rose Bowl.  Safeties Quentin Johnson & Keon Sabb were both forced into duty by an untimely injury during the fourth quarter, and they both made huge plays late.  The Wolverines harassed Jalen Milroe all night while still rotating at least seven defensive linemen consistently (prayers up for Rayshaun Benny).  Michigan created game plans and managed their roster for an entire season to ensure they could be as close to full strength as possible in the College Football Playoff.  Now it’s time to go play the game, and earn not only the National Title, but the title of Greatest Michigan Team of All Time. 
Michigan 31 Washington 24

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 01/02/24, 14-0

  • SP+ Overall: 2nd (↓1), 31.0
    • SP+ Offense: 12th (↓2), 36.5
    • SP+ Defense: 1st (same), 7.3
    • SP+ Special Teams: 7th (↓3), 1.8
  • AP Poll: 1st (same)
  • Coaches’ Poll: 1st (same)
  • CFP Rank: 1st (same)
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Michigan Wolverine Football Podcast — Chasing Perfection – National Championship Preview

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Phil @pcallihan and Clint @Clint_Derringer the National Championship game versus Washington with special guest Andrew Percival @PDawg206 also RB Blake Corum, QB J.J. McCarthy, and Jim Harbaugh.

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Podcast Summary

  • Michigan football’s chances against Washington based on SP plus ratings.0:00
    • Offensive players emphasize teamwork and balance in attacking opponents.
    • Clint Derringer expects a strength-on-strength battle between Michigan’s defense and Washington’s offense.
    • Michigan offensive game plan was better than initially thought, despite sputtering at times.
  • Michigan’s strength in computer rankings.6:27
    • Percival highlights Michigan’s exceptional performance in advanced metrics, ranking them #1 in the country per their model.
    • The model favors Michigan over Alabama, despite Michigan not playing a non-conference P5 opponent, as the Big Ten is ranked #4 in the country.
  • Washington Huskies’ football team’s journey and performance.9:27
    • Phil Callihan reflects on Michigan Wolverines’ three-year journey, including their dramatic victory over Alabama and the team’s resilience despite setbacks.
    • Andrew Lange characterizes the team’s ride this season as “so much fun,” highlighting their strong start, mid-season ups and downs, and notable wins.
    • Percival highlights Washington’s close games against Oregon and Utah, describing them as “torturous nerve-racking” experiences.
    • Percival recounts Washington’s dramatic victory over Washington State, including a fourth-down conversion and a 25-yard touchdown reception.
    • Percival highlights Washington’s exceptional performance in close games, including a 3-point win over Oregon and a 4-point win over Texas as an underdog.
    • Phil Callihan expresses disappointment that Michigan and Washington won’t face off in the Rose Bowl, but is content with the win over Alabama.
  • Michigan football’s defense and their matchup against Washington’s Heisman-contending quarterback, Michael Penix.17:36
    • Michigan’s defense has remained consistent under different coordinators, with a focus on parallel strategies and successful game planning.
    • Clint Derringer sees Michael Penix as a transformed quarterback who went from good to great after developing his pocket passing skills, and now has the potential to lead Washington to victory against Michigan.
    • Phil Callihan agrees, noting that Penix’s game has evolved significantly since his Indiana days, and he now has the Heisman Trophy credentials to back it up.
  • Quarterback Penix’s accuracy and power.23:23
    • Penix has an “electric arm” with accuracy and power, demonstrated by his deep balls and ability to throw at a lower trajectory.
    • Penix’s progressions are quick, and he can throw with both power and accuracy, often completing passes beyond 25-30 yards downfield.
  • Michigan football quarterbacks and their strategies.26:22
    • Phil Callihan notes that Mike Sain is the X factor in the Michigan defense, with his sneaky speed and intelligent playmaking ability.
    • Clint Derringer compares JJ McCarthy to Penix, highlighting the difference in aggression and experience between the two quarterbacks.
    • Clint Derringer analyzes Michigan’s offensive strategy, highlighting their NFL-style run game and passing game built for big plays.
    • Jim Harbaugh is prepared to dust off 2021 game film against Washington, showing he’s comfortable handing off 20-30 times in a half if it’s working.
  • Michigan football’s run-heavy strategy vs. Washington.31:33
    • Jim Harbaugh highlights the importance of running the ball, citing George Patton’s success on the ground.
    • Clint Derringer believes Michigan will focus on running between the tackles to shorten the game and limit possessions, potentially limiting Washington’s offensive opportunities.
    • Clint Derringer agrees with Percival that Michigan’s commitment to running the ball will be tested by Washington’s ability to get up early and make the game shorter.
    • Derringer believes that while shortening the game favors the underdog, Michigan’s defense must continue to make plays to slow down Washington’s explosive offense.
    • Clint Derringer analyzes Michigan’s offensive strategy, highlighting their reliance on the run game to create explosive plays and wear down defenses.
    • Derringer notes that while Blake Corum hasn’t had as many long runs as in previous seasons, he’s still finding ways to break tackles and score touchdowns, often from 8-15 yards out.
  • Michigan Wolverines football strategy and analysis.39:36
    • Phil Callihan observes that JJ McCarthy’s shaky starts are a pattern, and Washington could try to exploit this by encouraging him to throw underneath and potentially get an interception.
    • Jim Harbaugh emphasizes the importance of running the ball effectively against Michigan’s defense, even if it means sacrificing some passing yards.
    • Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan discuss the impact of rule changes on college football, specifically the reduction of plays and possessions per game due to the clock no longer stopping on first downs.
    • Clint Derringer and Andrew discuss the importance of special teams and the potential for opponents to send everyone on every kick to try to make something happen.
  • College football playoffs and predictions.44:42
    • Percival is in disbelief that Michigan and Washington are in the college Football semi-finals, despite being an underdog in each game.
    • Percival is excited about the potential for an upset, citing the small point spread and history of underdog teams winning national championships.
    • Percival believes Michigan is overrated and predicts a Washington victory with a score of 31-28.
    • Percival acknowledges the challenges of playoff expansion and its impact on teams like Washington and Michigan.
  • Michigan football’s chances against Ohio State with analysis and predictions.51:03
    • Clint Derringer highlights the significance of the expansion model and its impact on the game, particularly the excitement of seeing southern powers play in northern games.
    • Derringer analyzes the similarities between Michigan’s recent games against Ohio State and the upcoming game, with a focus on the offensive line’s improved performance.
    • Clint Derringer expects Michigan to win the game by a score of 31-24, with their defense being the key to their success.
    • Andrew Percival is on Twitter at @PDAWG206, where he shares his research and insights on Michigan football.
  • Teamwork and belief in a sports program.55:54
    • J.J. McCarthy and Blake Corum discuss their team’s mentality and goals, with a focus on believing in themselves and overcoming obstacles.
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Michigan Wolverine Football Podcast — Unbreakable, Glorious – Michigan 27 Alabama 20 OT

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Phil @pcallihan and Clint @Clint_Derringer discuss Michigan’s 27-20 Overtime victory over Alabama in the Rose Bowl to secure a National Championship berth. With QB JJ McCarthy, RB Blake Corum, and Head Coach Jim Harbaugh.

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Podcast Summary

  • Michigan Wolverines’ Rose Bowl victory over Alabama.0:00
    • Michigan Wolverines win thrilling Rose Bowl game against Alabama in overtime, capping off an unbreakable season.
  • Michigan football game with highs and lows.1:49
    • Clint Derringer reflects on the emotional rollercoaster of Michigan’s game against Alabama, from elation to infuriation.
  • Michigan football’s special teams performance in a game against Alabama.4:02
    • Michigan’s special teams struggles cost them the game against Alabama.
    • Phil Callihan is thinking about a play during the game and wonders if anyone else noticed it.
    • Clint Derringer shares his frustration with a specific aspect of the game, including the hidden yardage gaps and the impact it had on the outcome of the game.
  • Michigan football’s special teams struggles in a game against Alabama.9:01
    • Alabama’s special teams mistakes led to two touchdowns for Michigan.
    • Clint Derringer praises Jesse Minter’s game plan and players’ execution in Michigan’s win over Alabama.
    • Michigan’s special teams struggles nearly cost them the game.
  • Michigan’s offensive performance despite mistakes.16:05
    • Michigan weathered a disastrous special teams performance to win the game, showcasing their resilience and teamwork.
    • Michigan offense executes a perfect game plan, targeting Alabama linebackers with their fastest player, Roman Wilson.
    • Clint Derringer highlights Blake Corum’s impressive performance in Michigan’s win, including his record-breaking touchdown run in overtime.
  • Michigan football’s performance in the Rose Bowl.22:06
    • Blake Corum reflects on his journey of self-discovery and growth, from surgery to Rose Bowl, and is excited for the next month’s challenges.
    • Phil Callihan compares Corum’s current performance to a pitcher adjusting their style, highlighting a possible decrease in explosive speed.
    • Michigan’s offensive line and defense showcase their talent and resilience in big moments.
    • Phil Callihan highlights Michigan’s resilience in overcoming special teams mistakes and offensive struggles to win the game.
    • Callihan notes that despite the issues, Michigan’s offense and defense both had good games, and the team’s ability to overcome challenges is a positive takeaway.
  • Michigan Wolverines’ football game performance.29:08
    • Michigan’s offense has consistently shown mental toughness and resilience in big moments.
    • Phil Callihan highlights the Michigan defense’s performance, particularly in the final play of the game, where they stopped the opposing team from scoring.
    • Clint Derringer agrees, emphasizing the no-star, no-name defense’s ability to come through in crucial moments.
    • Clint Derringer highlights Josiah Stewart’s crucial block on a Quarterback run, despite being the lightest of four edge players.
    • Junior Coulson leads the team in tackles despite injuries, including a stinger, and makes a big play on the final defensive stand.
    • Clint Derringer praises Michigan’s defense for their performance against Georgia, calling it the “finest stamp of approval” they’ve seen this season.
    • Derringer and Phil Callihan discuss Michigan’s preparation for the title game against Washington, with Derringer expressing optimism that they will play their best after a more natural game week.
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Michigan 27 Alabama 20 OT – Game 14 CFP SF Recap @ Rose Bowl

GAME 14 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 27-20 OT, Michigan by 7 over Alabama
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 8.4 (-1.4)
CD Projection: Michigan by 3 (+4)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 14 ROSE BOWL RECAP vs. Alabama

The Michigan offense was night and day different from first half to second half. The Wolverines held a 13-10 halftime lead after gifting the Tide an extra possession, but only ran nine plays in the third quarter. Of those nine Q3 plays, only one was successful, yielding an 11% success rate for the quarter. Just when negativity started to emerge throughout Wolverine nation, JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum rose to the occasion.

Down by seven with 4:41 to go, Michigan delivered a drive for the ages. The Wolverines marched eight plays, 75 yards, highlighted by a 4th & 2 pass from McCarthy to Corum to move into Alabama territory. McCarthy finished 17-27 for 221 yards and 3 TDs, while Corum scored twice. His rushing touchdown in overtime made him the program’s all-time rushing touchdown record holder, a well deserved honor for an iconic Michigan Man.

Defensively, coordinator Jesse Minter called a masterful game. The Wolverines piled up five sacks in the first half and finished with six total for the game. As the offense sputtered in the middle of the contest, the defense repeatedly had to come up with huge stops in high leverage moments. Linebacker Junior Colson battled through multiple injuries to lead the defense with ten tackles.

No play could be any bigger than the final stop of Jalen Milroe on 4th down in overtime. Defensive end Derrick Moore made a tremendous individual play to cross the face of the offensive tackle and make contact with Milroe behind the line of scrimmage. The rest of the Wolverines finished the tackle, and the celebration was allowed to commence around the country.

The special teams unit turned in their worst performance in memory, keeping the game closer than it should have been while Michigan dominated the other phases. Semaj Morgan muffed a punt in Q1 to set up Alabama’s first half touchdown. Two poor snaps led to a missed PAT, and a missed FG. And in the most heart-stopping moment of the day, the Tide’s final punt of regulation was muffed by Jake Thaw inside the 5-yard line. No doubt Jay Harbaugh will dedicate extra practice time to cleaning these issues up this week.

This game lived up to the heavyweight slugfest that it was hyped to be. While Michigan played sloppily, they also rose to the occasion in the largest moments. In that way, this Rose Bowl championship is a fitting microcosm for the whole 2023 season. But, the work’s not finished. Onward to Houston!