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My name is Scott Childers; I’m a husband and father of two and an internal medicine physician in the division of Hospital Medicine at the University of Michigan. I also happen to be a lifelong Michigan fan and season ticket holder for both basketball and football. I am writing this letter to urge the University of Michigan and the University of Michigan Athletic Department to move forward with mandating vaccinated status for attendance at all University of Michigan athletic events; including football games at Michigan Stadium this fall. Allow me to also state that I am not an epidemiologist, and most importantly, the opinions expressed here represent mine alone.
I’ve been living the reality of caring for COVID19 patients admitted to the hospital for these past 18 months. Also, like all Michigan fans I watched a broken and disjointed season in 2020 that saw a for all-intents-and-purposes empty Michigan Stadium. I’ve witnessed completely full intensive care units, moderate care units, and general wards lead to wholesale restructuring to try to accommodate the incredible rise in cases. I’ve participated in emergency contingency planning for the use of off-site field hospitals to help with the surge that filled and overwhelmed our hospitals last year. With the advent of highly efficacious and safe vaccines this past winter I have also seen a wholesale shift in the census of COVID19 patients in the inpatient setting, and shared in the hope that the end was nearly on the horizon. Yet,18 months in here we are, now in the middle of our 4th wave of cases. Football season approaches with the promise of in-person attendance returning, and while I cannot wait at the same time I am incredibly concerned. Why is it that the Delta variant is of such concern? Why should the University of Michigan, already mandating vaccines for its Faculty/Staff/Students at all campuses, take the next logical step and mandate proof of vaccinated status for attendance at University of Michigan athletic events?
First, let’s cover what is the “Delta variant” and why is it important? Delta is a variant/mutation of SARS-CoV-2 that has been identified as a “variant of concern” by the SARS-CoV-2 Interagency Group. A variant of concern is “[a] variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (e.g., increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” Its significance is that in unvaccinated as well as immunosuppressed populations who demonstrated an attenuated response to initial vaccine doses, we are seeing a marked jump in case rate once again. The CDC tracks 7-day moving averages of cases and there has been a 14% increase in the most recent 7-day moving average of daily new cases (133,056) compared to the prior 7-day moving average (116,740). The current case number of 133,056 for this period is 93.9% higher than the peak observed on July 20, 2020 (68,636). “Nationally, the combined proportion of cases attributed to Delta is estimated to increase to 98.8%”. Essentially, the massive influx of new cases at this time are entirely secondary to infections caused by this Delta variant of the virus.
Why are we seeing this significant jump? Hospital admissions for confirmed COVID-19 infections are currently at their highest levels since the start of the pandemic in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oregon, and Washington. Many factors have played a role; from rolling back of mask/social distancing mandates in many communities, to highly variable vaccination rates, as well as the significantly higher transmissibility of the delta variant. In reading about the pandemic you will very likely come across a term “R-naught” that is best thought of as a gauge for how infections or transmissible a virus is. R naught represents on average the total number of people a single infected person can spread the disease to. The higher the R-naught, the more people a single person can pass the infection to. Currently for Delta this reproductive rate sits at approximately 6, meaning that each infected person will spread the infection to six other people on average. This is a dramatic increase compared to an estimated R-naught of 2-3 for Covid-19 prior to the delta variant. An R naught that is anything greater than 1 means that the infection is growing, or worsening, within a population. It is also crucially important to remember that R-naught is not a fixed number, and there are measures that can be taken to help reduce it.
One of my University of Michigan colleagues, Dr. Preeti Malani, recently published an outstanding paper in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) that provides a thorough and frank summary of where we stand at this point in the pandemic, the role of the Delta variant, and the importance of continued vaccination and vaccine mandates: “With an R0 of 6, it will be extremely difficult to slow the spread of the Delta variant because the herd immunity threshold (ie, the proportion of persons who would need to be fully vaccinated, infected, or both, to interrupt endemic transmission) would need to be greater than 85%.” The authors note that even in countries like Iceland, where more than 90% of people 16 and older are vaccinated, case rates have increased secondary to the Delta variant. However, even more importantly, despite the increase in the number of cases, the number of Covid-19 related deaths and serious illnesses has NOT increased in Iceland. The authors note that “These data suggest that even if herd immunity is not achieved for COVID-19 (given the Delta variant), high levels of vaccination will help prevent hospitalizations and deaths as SARS-CoV-2 moves toward endemicity.”
So where do we stand in terms of vaccinations in this country, and more locally, in Washtenaw County? “As of August 16, 2021, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that 168.7 million people have been fully vaccinated in the US, which represents 50.8% of the population and 59.4% of the vaccine-eligible population.” The Washtenaw County dashboard tracks vaccine rate as well and as of 8/17/21, 57.7% of residents of all ages (who are eligible) are fully vaccinated. The state of Michigan’s tracking site currently reports that 55.1% of eligible individuals are fully vaccinated in the state, and 65% of eligible individuals (16 years of age and older) have received at least 1 dose of the vaccine. Surrounding counties Wayne (61.6% fully vaccinated) and Oakland (65.3%) both have slightly higher portions of their population fully vaccinated at this time. Unfortunately, these numbers are nowhere near where we need to be in order to ultimately slow the rate of spread of the virus, we need to continue to improve these percentages and do so dramatically. How then can we can increase our vaccination rates?
Today, Monday, August 23rd, the FDA granted full approval to Pfizer’s COVID19 vaccine following a clinical trial of over 44,000 patients. “As the first FDA-approved covid-19 vaccine, the public can be very confident that this vaccine meets the high standards for safety, effectiveness and manufacturing quality the FDA requires of an approved product.” The way forward to end the pandemic is abundantly clear: increased vaccinated rates across the board. This approval, in my opinion, represents a significant step for further mandates to be put in place to help increase the number of vaccinated individuals. Dr. Malani et al, note in their paper that “courts have, so far, upheld institutional vaccine mandates and to date more than 700 colleges and universities have adopted COVID-19 vaccine requirements.” Multiple universities including Tulane, Oregon, and Oregon State have adopted vaccine mandates for attendance at football games on their respective campuses this fall, additionally the Las Vegas Raiders have mandated vaccinated status for attendance this season. Vaccine mandates are not new, they have existed for healthcare workers, military, and school-age children in all 50 states prior to this pandemic. With the Pfizer vaccine now fully improved, I anticipate the number of organizations that make vaccines mandatory will dramatically increase.
With case numbers steadily rising (including alarming increases in pediatric cases as schools return), and hospital capacities shrinking at an alarming rate, I implore all of us to take the necessary steps to help reduce the spread of this virus: get vaccinated! Not only are you protecting yourself, but you are simultaneously protecting others in your community as well, many of whom may not yet have the option of a vaccine at this time or are immunocompromised. We should also continue to take appropriate precautions such as masking and social distancing as there are still significant portions of our eligible population who remain unprotected, and of course this does not include children who at this point are still not eligible for the vaccine outside of clinical trials. It is important to remember that a football game does not occur in a vacuum, on 7 or 8 wondrous football Saturdays each fall, 110,000 or more congregate in Michigan Stadium from all over, and after the action on the gridiron is over, they return to families and friends. A vaccine mandate
The University of Michigan has already mandated that all of its faculty, staff, and students show proof of vaccinated status on each of its campuses. I applauded this decision when it was announced and appreciate the direct and indirect impact on public health that policies like this can have in the surrounding community. I now urge U of M to take the next logical step in the face of overwhelming data demonstrating steadily worsening case rates alongside continued proof of efficacy of available vaccines: mandate vaccinated status for attendance at all U of M athletic events. This is an opportunity to have a meaningful impact on our surrounding community while truly embodying a “Leaders and Best” mentality and making the Big House the home of “the largest crowd watching a football game anywhere in America today” safely! The infrastructure for uploading proof of vaccinated status is already in place at U of M with the ResponsiBLUE application that I use on a daily basis to pre-screen before arriving at the hospital. Incorporating a system at the gates of Michigan Stadium where first pass requires proof of vaccinated status and then second pass scans your ticket (physical or digital) should not require wholesale changes to our current entry process. Any of you who have been to a game know that security already pre-screens you before you arrive where your ticket is scanned. We have the ability to do this, both for ourselves and for others who have not yet had the opportunity to be protected by a vaccine to date. I truly believe that U of M can do this safely and set an example for others to follow, and I earnestly hope that U of M seizes the opportunity.
Be safe, and of course: Go Blue!
Michigan’s six-game 2020 football season was the shortest of the modern era, but it didn’t feel that way. After an excruciating 2-4 slog, a rampant covid outbreak, multiple canceled games, and an over-analyzed, anticlimactic contract extension for Jim Harbaugh, I think we all deserved a break. But now it’s August, and that means we kick off the 2021 return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with a game-by-game preview of the 2021 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbers articles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.
The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system was meant to be predictive for beating the odds against Vegas, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games. Here are his 2021 B1G West & B1G East preseason preview articles (ESPN+ subscription required).
What is SP+
SP+ is the tempo and opponent adjusted college football analytical model developed by Bill Connelly for Football Outsiders (he is now at ESPN). SP+ is based around the core concepts of the Five Factors of winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers. The resulting metric is expressed in adjusted points per game, as compared to the average CFB team. Original Explanation
2021 Preseason SP+ Rankings
When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record, and that of the SP+ projections, since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com 3 seasons ago.
Connelly’s SP+ preseason projections were amazingly accurate in picking the straight up winners in 2018 & 2019, missing only twice (2018 picked MSU & 2019 picked Michigan over PSU). In 2019, as Connelly updated his model through the season for Game Week projections, SP+ correctly picked the straight up winner in all 13 games for Michigan. Just like almost everything in 2020, college football projections were a total crapshoot, even for the best in the business. Predicting Michigan’s version of 2020 in the preseason produced a record of 3-3 straight up and versus the spread for SP+, and for me too.
While it’s no shock that I tend to be more optimistic on Michigan in the preseason, I have learned to adjust from my original viewpoint once we’re into game weeks. The 2018 season was a real learning experience while riding too high on the Revenge Tour. While I picked the correct outcome in 10 out of 12 games, I was bad at predicting the margins. That led to a 3-9 inaugural season against the spread. In 2019 I bounced back against the spread to 10-3, and followed up with a 5-1 record last season. That one miss in 2020 was my worst ever, in Game #2 vs. MSU. At least I was able to recalibrate after that disaster. Let’s hope the football program can too.
Predicting Michigan Games in Preseason (2018-20)
Predicting Michigan Games on Game Week (2018-20)
Michigan 2021 SP+ Preseason Ranking
Overall – 17th, 18.3
Offense – 28th, 35.4
Defense – 10th, 17.1
I am sure these numbers are a surprise to most Michigan fans. The SP+ model takes multi-year history into account, especially in the preseason version. While 2020 was a near total collapse, Michigan has maintained moderate success on the recruiting trail in the Harbaugh era, and returns an average amount of production on both sides of the ball. The ranking of the defensive unit will be pretty volatile, given that Mike MacDonald is coordinating for the first time. While I don’t think Michigan will end the season with the 10th ranked defense, this is a reminder that we are likely to see a significant improvement over last year’s unit.
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 16.5, Michigan win probability: 89%
PREDICTION: This is a great game to open the 2021 season for a couple reasons. First and foremost, it’s a game that Michigan should win. The Wolverines could also, in the best-case scenario, get a comfortable second half lead and let some young players gain valuable experience. But, the game is also great for us to gauge what type of season we’re in for. Western’s offense is a legit threat with a returning QB who threw for 285 yards per game last year. This will be a solid test for Mike MacDonald to cut his teeth, and there will be more than one instance of growing pains. As a forewarning, WMU’s SP+ ranking of #72 is the same as the 2019 Army squad that took Michigan to double overtime.
Michigan 37 WMU 24, 1-0
PRESEASON SP+: Washington by 1.9, Michigan win probability: 42%
PREDICTION: The Wolverines get their first Power 5 test in Week 2 against an interesting Washington Huskies team. On one hand, the Huskies won the Pac-12 North last year with a 3-1 record. On the other hand, they played all 4 games at home, and had games canceled vs. Cal, WSU, Oregon, and USC. Clearly Washington’s program navigated the covid year much more smoothly than Michigan did, but there will still be a boat load of unknowns for both teams heading into this game. U-M and U-W rank dead even in returning production at #55 and #54 respectively, but I think it’s the 91% returning production on the offensive side of the ball that allows Washington to make plays that end up being the difference.
Michigan 27 Washington 30, 1-1
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 30.3, Michigan win probability: 97%
PREDICTION: By the third game week of the regular season, we should be able to clearly see the identity that both Josh Gattis and Mike MacDonald will have instilled into their squads. Strengths will have emerged. Weaknesses will have been identified and hopefully corrected. This is absolutely a spot where we should see Michigan put its best foot forward and play a complete football game against a team that doesn’t project to be very strong.
Michigan 45 NIU 17, 2-1
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 19.0, Michigan win probability: 92%
PREDICTION: In 2020, Greg Schiano showed that he can be an immediate difference maker for Rutgers. Michigan famously needed 3 overtime periods to defeat the Scarlet Knights last year as Cade McNamara took the reins of the offense. I have no reason to doubt that Rutgers continues to improve this year. Rutgers comes to Ann Arbor for the Big Ten opener, and is capable of catching the Wolverines looking ahead to Wisconsin. If Michigan appears unprepared for this one, I expect the volume to increase from the portions of the fanbase who are already rooting for changes at the top.
Michigan 33 Rutgers 24, 3-1
PRESEASON SP+: Wisconsin by 4.1, Michigan win probability: 29%
PREDICTION: In the past two seasons, the Badgers have delivered the harsh reality that Michigan’s team was not as good as expected. The 2019 game in Madison was over in the first half, and had alumni questioning the team’s mental toughness. In 2020, at the Big House, it was immediately clear that the Wolverines were not capable of righting the ship, even though Wisconsin was struggling to contain their covid issues. This season, Michigan again faces off with Paul Chryst and Co. early in the Big Ten season. This year, however, we will have seen the Badgers against Penn State (Sep. 4th) and Notre Dame the previous week. I don’t expect Michigan to win in Madison, but I will be measuring the program’s leadership and direction based on their performance in this game.
Michigan 24 Wisconsin 30, 3-2
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 5.9, Michigan win probability: 47%
PREDICTION: The SP+ model has significant conflict surrounding the 6th game of the season in Lincoln against the Cornhuskers. Michigan is ranked 15 slots ahead of Nebraska, and would be projected to win by 5.9 points on a neutral field. However, their preseason win probably from Connely’s Big Ten preview has this as a tossup, and even a slight edge to Nebraska. Scott Frost could potentially be soaring high at 5-1 headed into this one because Oklahoma is the only team currently favored to beat Nebraska in the first half of their schedule. However, if the Huskers do trip up early in the season Frost’s hot seat will again take center stage and another season could spiral out of control. This matchup is circled on my calendar as the pivotal moment for the 2021 Michigan football season. You already know I am optimistic.
Michigan 42 Nebraska 23, 4-2
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 17.3, Michigan win probability: 86%
PREDICTION: Northwestern might be the program that best capitalized on the chaos of the 2020 season. The Wildcats won the West division with a 6-1 regular season record. They also gave Justin Fields and the rest of the Buckeyes fits in the Big Ten Championship game. Unfortunately for Pat Fitzgerald, they rank dead last in FBS, 129th, in returning production going into 2021. We’ll see how Northwestern can reload from a talent perspective, but I expect them to play their best game in Ann Arbor, especially defensively. I think this one will come down to a few critical plays to be made in the 4th quarter. The Wolverines’ playmakers must answer the call and step up in a big moment.
Michigan 24 Northwestern 20, 5-2
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 11.7, Michigan win probability: 68%
PREDICTION: This rivalry game has moved back into the second half of the season for 2021. In the Harbaugh era, the Michigan State game has served as a statement platform in each season. In 2020, Mel Tucker announced his arrival, and bought himself some patience from the sparty fanbase, by embarrassing the Wolverines in Ann Arbor. This reversal from Harbaugh’s 2019 farewell statement to Mark Dantonio made last year’s catastrophe even more shocking. The 2021 chapter of this rivalry will be another golden opportunity for one program or the other to put an exclamation point on the series. I would imagine Mike Hart’s name will hit the news cycle around this time of year, also.
Michigan 31 Michigan State 21, 6-2
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 4.5, Michigan win probability: 58%
PREDICTION: The final stretch of the season kicks off with a major test in Michael Penix and the Indiana Hoosiers. Tom Allen had the Hoosiers in position to compete for the Big Ten East crown last year, and this well-balanced team is a legitimate part of the conversation in the preseason this year. By the time they come to Ann Arbor, Indiana will have already played Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State, and non-conference giant Cincinnati. If the Hoosiers are still in the hunt for the East, then this will make for a titanic showdown. I expect them to drop two or three of those early contests, and I think both Indiana and Michigan will be trying to claw back into the race with a quality November victory.
Michigan 25 Indiana 17, 7-2
PRESEASON SP+: PSU by 2.9, Michigan win probability: 33%
PREDICTION: By November 13th, the 2021 Big Ten pecking order will be much more clear. If the Nittany Lions are making a push for the Big Ten East at this point, then the White Out atmosphere in Happy Valley will be a figurative Mount Everest for Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines to attack. However, I don’t think Penn State will stay in the race to this point in the season. James Franklin’s crew starts the season in Madison against the Badgers, and will have also seen Auburn and Indiana at home, with road trips to Iowa and Ohio State by the time the Wolverines pull into town. This will be an important game for both coaches in terms of establishing control of the series, and I think it will be a defensive slug fest.
Michigan 20 Penn State 16, 8-2
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 9.1, Michigan win probability: 51%
PREDICTION: In the 2021 11th game trap spot that has been traditionally reserved for Indiana, Michigan will travel to College Park to take on Maryland. In the rollercoaster year of 2020, Maryland may have had the highest highs and lowest lows. Things looked bleak after the Terrapins were blown out by Northwestern to open the season, but they rebounded to beat Minnesota at home and Penn State in Happy Valley. Then covid struck, causing a 3 week shutdown, followed by losses to Indiana and Rutgers. In terms of SP+, I think Maryland is still a load of questions marks and unknowns. We will have a much clearer idea of whether Mike Locksley has things rolling or not by November. I expect we’ll see a result that is reminiscent of pre-covid days.
Michigan 39 Maryland 14, 9-2
PRESEASON SP+: OSU by 8.2, Michigan win probability: 34%
PREDICTION: Here at the crescendo of the preview, it’s my duty to remind you that I tend to lean optimistic in my preseason picks. If things play out similarly to how I’ve written here, Michigan would be 9-2, on a 6-game win streak returning to the Big House for The Game, likely with Big Ten title implications on the line. Ryan Day and the Buckeyes are coming off a National Championship Game appearance, where their biggest question marks are: 1) how closely can CJ Stroud and/or Quinn Ewers replicate Justin Fields’ success, and 2) will an average-ish defense be good enough for Ohio State to make another title run? The Buckeyes are still loaded with talent, and they will have a handful of key personnel advantages when they play Michigan. All that said, I still think Michigan will put their best foot forward in this battle. My main prediction for this game is that afterward we’ll be talking about the 2 or 3 plays that made all the difference, and whether or not we believe the program is moving in the right direction.
Michigan 21 Ohio State 31, 9-3
3rd Place in B1G Ten East
Yeah, it’s me, the “basketball guy”, back for more. It’s time for my annual attempt to predict how the University of Michigan’s football season is going to go.
Last Season (2020)
My Prediction: 5-3 (5-3 in Big Ten)
Actual Results: 2-4 (2-4 in Big Ten)
Comments: After doing a perfect job predicting the 2019 season, I did a terrible job predicting the 2020 season. I was close on the number of losses, but way off on the number of wins. Of course, the 2020 season was really weird, with 9 games scheduled for Michigan, and only 6 of them played, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It was a miserable season, best forgotten.
This Season (2021)
My Prediction: 7-5 (5-4 in Big Ten)
Comments: After a weird “Big Ten only” season in 2020, Michigan has a full slate of 12 games, 3 non-conference and 9 conference games. At this point, it looks like full capacity crowds will be allowed at the games. All of that could still change, and I won’t be very surprised if Michigan plays less than 12 games, with several of them in empty stadiums. However, assuming UM plays all 12 games, I’m predicting a 7-5 season (5-4 in Big Ten), with wins over Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Rutgers, Nebraska, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Maryland, and losses to Washington, Wisconsin, Indiana, Penn State, and Ohio State.
Go Blue!
Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer discuss the start of fall camp, if the new defensive scheme will allow the Wolverines to run more, NIL, and rumors of a Big Ten, PAC-12, ACC alliance,
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