Final Score: 51-7, Michigan by 44 over Colorado State SP+ Projection: Michigan by 31.5 (+12.5) CD Projection: Michigan by 35 (+9)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 1 RECAP vs. Colorado State
I am going to avoid overreaction to the best of my ability. The Michigan defense looked a step ahead of where I expected, but who knows how good the CSU offense is? The offense was effective, but left a little bit to be desired in terms of crisp execution. Special teams were solid as always, and I think I heard a sigh of relief from the Big House faithful when AJ Henning was back deep on punt return instead of Ronnie Bell.
Offensively, we know all the attention will be on the QB race. Cade McNamara got the start and led 8 drives, but JJ McCarthy came in on the 8th drive and scored a rushing touchdown. There were 3 FG drives, 2 punts, & 2 touchdown drives before the McCarthy rushing TD. Today is not enough information to make a decision, but if you had to score this round like a boxing match, I would say JJ 10 Cade 9. There is still a long way to go.
The Wolverines dominated on defense. Michigan racked up 11 tackles for loss, including 7 sacks. The longest drive for the Rams was 7 plays for 33 yards and ended in a turnover on downs as the clock turned to the 4th quarter. The most encouraging piece of this defensive performance is the number of players, especially young players, that got onto the field. That was true even in the first half before garbage time.
Another big thing to remember in 2022 is to be grateful for the special teams excellence that we have in Ann Arbor. Jake Moody pounded every kickoff into a touchback, and both of Brad Robbins’ punts were returned for 0 yards inside the Rams’ 20 yard line. Moody was also 3/3 on field goals. All in all it was a great day to be a Michigan Wolverine. Onward!
Michigan’s offense returns nearly everybody, including Ronnie Bell who led the team in receiving in 2019 & 2020 before suffering an ACL injury in last year’s season opener.
Michigan is looking to follow up on perhaps their best season since the 1997 National Championship. We endured a “will he, won’t he” with Jim Harbaugh and the NFL. We’re also just starting a QB battle between Cade McNamara and JJ McCarthy that threatens to split the fan base in half. But now it’s Labor Day weekend, and that means we kick off the 2022 return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with a game-by-game preview of the 2022 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbersarticles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.
The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system is meant to be predictive for beating the odds against Vegas, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games.
What is SP+
SP+ is the tempo and opponent adjusted college football analytical model developed by Bill Connelly for Football Outsiders (he is now at ESPN). SP+ is based around the core concepts of the Five Factors of winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers. The resulting metric is expressed in adjusted points per game, as compared to the average CFB team.
When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record, and that of the SP+ projections, since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com in 2018.
Connelly’s SP+ preseason projections were amazingly accurate in picking the straight up winners in 2018 & 2019, missing only twice (2018 picked MSU & 2019 picked Michigan over PSU). In 2019, as Connelly updated his model through the season for Game Week projections, SP+ correctly picked the straight up winner in all 13 games for Michigan. Just like almost everything in 2020, college football projections were a total crapshoot, even for the best in the business. In 2021 the SP+ preseason model was off in their preseason evaluation of Michigan, including 1-11 against the spread. That can be forgiven since nearly everyone was surprised by Michigan’s 2021 Championship turnaround.
Like most Michigan fans, I have often been a victim of preseason optimism. The 2018 season was also a painful learning experience while riding too high on the Revenge Tour. While I picked the correct outcome in 10 out of 12 games, I was bad at predicting the margins. That led to a 3-9 inaugural season against the spread. In 2019 I bounced back against the spread to 10-3, and followed up with a 5-1 record in the 2020 COVID season. That one miss in 2020 was my worst ever, in Game #2 vs. MSU. I cooled off a touch in 2021 with an 8-6 record against the spread in my game week predictions.
The Wolverines’ SP+ ranking is in alignment with our preseason expectations. The defense looks like it should be good, but maybe not great. The offense will likely be asked to carry the team multiple times in 2022, particularly in the first half of the season.
2022 Regular Season Schedule
vs. Colorado State: 96th Overall, 109th Offense, 71st Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 31.5
PREDICTION: The weakness of the non-conference slate in 2022 has gotten a lot of publicity as Michigan’s season draws near. Colorado State brings the SP+ 96th ranked team to Ann Arbor, and they are the highest ranked non-con opponents…by ~30 spots. I think the Rams will finish the season much higher than 96th, but this game will see the Wolverines trying to make a statement that last year was no fluke.
Michigan 49 Colorado State 14, 1-0
vs. Hawaii: 123rd Overall, 101st Offense, 129th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 43.1
PREDICTION: It’s tough to make too much out of this mismatch. Hawaii always has an uphill climb with the logistics challenges involved with flying a football team across an ocean for half your season. This season new head coach Timmy Chang will be given plenty of leeway to show what he’s capable of. I expect this Week 2 night game matchup with Michigan to be pretty lopsided for the Wolverines.
Michigan 56 Hawaii 9, 2-0
vs. UConn: 128th Overall, 129th Offense, 122nd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 48.8
PREDICTION: Michigan might experience an emotional let down in Week 3. UConn comes into Ann Arbor with their new head coach Jim Mora. If the Huskies are 0-2 and look as listless as they did in 2021, this one will struggle to crack 100K in Big House attendance. Let’s hope the apathy is limited to the fan base, and the team is not caught looking ahead to the B1G season opener.
Michigan 37 UConn 10, 3-0
vs. Maryland: 54th Overall, 29th Offense, 89th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 19.8
PREDICTION: This game has already lulled Michigan fans and local media to sleep. The preseason narrative is all about the weak “September Schedule” and the first four walkover games before a road trip to Iowa City. That is a big mistake. Maryland’s wide receivers are in the same tier as Michigan’s & Ohio States. If the Terps can protect Taulia Tagovailoa, and can also protect the football, this game could be a shoot out.
Michigan 48 Maryland 39, 4-0
@ Iowa: 27th Overall, 62nd Offense, 8th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 5.6
PREDICTION: The Wolverines have experienced multiple nightmares at Kinnick versus the Hawkeyes. Both teams could be 4-0 leading into this rematch of the 2021 B1G Championship Game. If that happens, FOX probably chooses this game for their noon slot. That would be a very good break for Michigan. Regardless of time slot, I expect this game will be a low-scoring rock fight. Bet the under as soon as it’s available.
PREDICTION: Indiana’s program has been problematic for Michigan under Tom Allen’s leadership. I think this 2nd consecutive road trip will create some fatigue for the Wolverines, and the Hoosiers will do their best to duplicate the Iowa defensive game plan. In the end, this may be the game where we find out which players will step up in the biggest moments for Michigan. Initially, I am looking to Ronnie Bell and DJ Turner to make the critical plays in high leverage situations.
Michigan 31 Indiana 17, 6-0
vs. Penn State: 13th Overall, 48th Offense, 6th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 7.4
PREDICTION: The Nittany Lions travel to the Big House to kick off the 2nd half of the schedule. Traditionally, Jim Harbaugh’s teams have handled James Franklin’s program with ease in home games. The 2020 COVID year was a glaring exception. Penn State’s defense could keep this from getting to blow out status, but I think the Wolverines will stay in control for almost the entire game to stay unbeaten.
Michigan 29 Penn State 17, 7-0
vs. Michigan State: 15th Overall, 20th Offense, 20th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 7.8
PREDICTION: I am mostly a believer in Mel Tucker’s ability to put together a dangerous team from the transfer portal. I expect the 2022 battle for the Paul Bunyan trophy to resemble a heavyweight fight. Both sides will land some haymakers. The biggest advantage for Michigan will be talent in the secondary. I expect to see the Wolverines make 1 or 2 huge plays in the 4th quarter, with perhaps another Andrel Anthony sighting.
PREDICTION: Plain and simple, Greg Schiano’s defensive scheme gives Michigan problems. The Wolverines got out to a good start against the Scarlet Knights in 2021, but their lack of linebacker depth allowed Rutgers to hang out longer than Maize & Blue faithful were comfortable with. This might be the BTN night game, on the road in Piscataway. I think Schiano finds a way to keep it close again.
Michigan 30 Rutgers 20, 9-0
vs. Nebraska: 44th Overall, 53rd Offense, 33rd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 15.6
PREDICTION: The crystal ball gets pretty cloudy when trying to predict November games from the couch in preseason. Nebraska is a total wild card. History says that Scott Frost will put together a very solid football team. But, they will find ways to lose football games. In a lot of ways they remind me of my favorite NFL team. I am just assuming the Cornhuskers get it figured out well enough to give this game a medium-sized profile. I also expect Frost to find a way to choke away a heartbreaker.
Michigan 24 Nebraska 23, 10-0
vs. Illinois: 79th Overall, 104th Offense, 42nd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 26.3
PREDICTION: In 2022, the Fighting Illini have drawn the sandwich November trap game slot in Michigan’s schedule. If the Wolverines find themselves undefeated and in the hunt for a B1G Championship and CFP berth, then the most important question will be whether the players can focus on anything other than The Game. This will be Senior Night, and player leadership will be crucial in keeping Illinois & their running game in the crosshairs.
PREDICTION: Ohio State’s offense is probably going to be BETTER than that Death Star from 2021. CJ Stroud, Jackson Smith-Njigba, & Trevyon Henderson were superstars last year, and they will all be battling for Heisman trophy consideration by this point in the season. The bigger questions reside on the Buckeyes’ coaching staff. Has Ryan Day’s 1-1 record versus Michigan sewn any lasting doubt? Can Jim Knowles right the ship on defense in one season? I expect the Wolverines will have a number of chances to win their 2nd consecutive game versus OSU for the first time since 2000. However, in Columbus, I am bracing myself for something ridiculous to happen.
Michigan 39 Ohio State 45, 11-1 2nd Place in B1G Ten East
DJ Turner emerged as a shutdown corner late in 2021, and will be asked to provide leadership for a young secondary in 2022. Can new Defensive Coordinator Jesse Minter create enough pressure to generate more turnovers this season?
The final look back to season openers takes us to 2017. This season signified a passing of the touch among the Michigan players. Leaders such as Jabrill Peppers, Chris Wormley and Taco Charlton were gone, but names such as Khaleke Hudson, Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich were eager to take their place.
For the second time, Michigan traveled to Dallas for its season opener. This time, the Wolverines were facing a Florida team coached by Jim McElwain. Simply put, if Wilton Speight had not thrown two interceptions, Michigan would have won by 30 points.
As it was, the Wolverines dominated Florida far more than the final score would indicate. Devin Bush immediately showed he would be a linebacker for the ages, flying all over the field at warp speed to track down ballcarriers. Chase Winovich and Rashan Gary proved that they were certainly capable of replacing Wormley and Charlton. And then there was the offense. Ty Isaac, Chris Evans and Karan Higdon pounded the Gators relentlessly, and head coach Jim Harbaugh exploited Florida’s lengthy defensive huddles by snapping the ball quickly, springing running backs for sizable gains.
Freshman receiver Tarik Black, who wouldn’t spend much time in a winged helmet, made his presence felt with several big receptions. Still, Florida managed to hang around, largely limiting Michigan to a bunch of Quinn Nordin field goals. At halftime, Florida actually led by four points, and for Michigan fans, their fears of speedy teams from the south were as prevalent as ever.
That changed dramatically in the second half. In addition to the dominance of Michigan’s skill players, the linemen in maize and blue started to impose their will. Facing a 4th down and 1 yard to go, Michigan snapped the ball early and Isaac gained 18 yards over the left side of the line. From that point, momentum put on a maize Michigan jersey. Yes, you read that correctly. Michigan wore maize jerseys and pants for the first time in many decades.
But if the Michigan uniforms were new, their style of play was as old school as it gets. Michigan went back to trap blocking, pulling guards and opening up huge holes for its running backs. On second down and goal from the Florida 3-yard line, Speight handed the ball to Higdon, who rumbled into the end zone almost untouched, and Michigan never looked back. As the game wore on, it was obvious that Michigan’s players were in considerably better physical condition than Florida’s players, and the Wolverines played at a much quicker tempo. The back breaker came when Winovich sacked Florida QB Malik Zaire in the end zone, stripping the ball in the process. Linebacker Noah Furbush fell on the loose ball for Michigan, and the Wolverines had a satisfying 33-17 win over Florida at a neutral site to start the season. Not bad at all for the folks from Ann Arbor.
How will the 2022 version of the Wolverines fare in their season opener? We’ll find out soon enough. Thanks to Fox Sports, YouTube, and YouTube poster parkinggod for the following highlight video. As always, neither I nor anyone involved with umgoblue.com profit from this blog post in any way. Enjoy!
