Category: Featured

Posted on

Michigan 31 Bowling Green 6 – Game 3 Recap

GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 31-6, Michigan by 25 over BGSU
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 45.1 (-20.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 33 (-8)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 3 RECAP vs. Bowling Green

Do you want the good news first, or the bad news? For the third consecutive week, Michigan had one phase of the offense humming, but struggled in the other. JJ McCarthy threw 3 interceptions, all of them on scoring opportunities inside Bowling Green’s 40-yard line. In addition to the turnovers, he also missed a few open receivers with his eyes, and a couple with his arm. While the passing attack struggled, Michigan returned to sky-high success rate on the ground (68%). Blake Corum kicked the game off with a 54-yard scamper, and Donovan Edwards also averaged 5.6 yards per carry for the game.

The defense was physically dominant again for the third consecutive week. On a night that Michigan turned the ball over four times, the shut out potential was lost early. However, the pass rush and ball-hawking secondary combined to create three turnovers to help balance the scales. One particular highlight was Mason Graham pressuring the Falcons’ quarterback on a screen pass that was picked off by tackle Kris Jenkins. Jenkins had his eyes on the end zone, but was dragged down just short. Corum pounded the ball in for Michigan’s third touchdown.

Special teams was uncharacteristically sloppy as well. The most costly event was a fumbled pooch kick by Max Bredeson after Bowling Green’s first field goal. That quick change resulted in the second score allowed by the defensive unit, but they would not allow any more. On the positive side of the ledger, James Turner looks like he’s settled in as the place kicker. Also, both Jake Thaw and Tyler Morris were sure-handed while fielding bouncing punts.

This was a text book example of an ugly win. The Wolverines were able to win comfortably based on their defensive line dominance and creating explosive offensive plays. This might be the ugliest of the three games we’ve seen in 2023, but the concern is that we still haven’t seen a complete performance from Michigan. The next test from Rutgers will force the Wolverines to put all the pieces together. The Scarlet Knights come to Ann Arbor next week with a 3-0 record. Onward!

Posted on

By the Numbers: Game 3 vs. Bowling Green

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines narrowly missed a shut out for the second consecutive week.  Michigan cruised to a 35-7 victory behind pinpoint accuracy from JJ McCarthy, and physical dominance by the defensive line. 

NEXT UP: vs. Bowling Green: SP+ 113th, -15.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 45.1, Michigan Win Probability 100%

Rinse and repeat for the non-conference schedule.  The SP+ model again picks the Wolverines by over 40 points, and predicts the opponent to stay under a full touchdown score.  This week the model produced a 49-4 prediction.

Michigan Offense (14th) vs. BGSU Defense (121st) 

The Wolverines have two main objectives offensively in Week 3: maintain the passing game momentum & smooth out the run game execution and timing.  JJ McCarthy only has 7 incompletions through two games, compared to 5 touchdown connections with Roman Wilson.  The key run game metrics for this week will be related to explosiveness.  If we see a significant uptick on yards per play and in EPA per play, we can infer the offensive line has cleaned up assignments, the wide receivers are engaging better on the perimeter, and the running backs are in sync.

Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. BGSU Offense (94th)

This matchup pits one of Michigan’s greatest strengths, the defensive line, directly against one of Bowling Green’s greatest weaknesses, their offensive line.  That imbalance in the trenches might make it difficult to evaluate other individual players, or the back seven position groups.  We can watch out for continued improvement from the edge players.  I would love to see Braden McGregor, Josiah Stewart, Derrick Moore, & Jaylen Harrell continue to fill the stat sheet with TFLs and sacks.  Ideally, those plays would also come after beating the block of an offensive lineman.  Last week, a handful of TFLS were the direct result of Wolverines who were totally unblocked.

PREDICTION: Sherrone Moore gets his turn to add Head Coach duties to his plate this week.  While I am happy for Coach Moore to showcase his talent, I am very much looking forward to putting the Harbaugh suspension behind us and settling into normal coaching staff roles.  Jesse Minter’s defense has flirted with a shutout in both of Michigan’s first two games.  We might be trying to protect a goose egg in this one as well.

BGSU drew praise from Jim Harbaugh this week related to their passing concepts.  However, I think they will rely much more on their running game in order to keep the clock churning.  The Falcons are a team who utilizes hurry up and temp the least.  It makes sense for them to try and reduce the number of drives and plays in order to keep this game close.   
Michigan 36 BGSU 3 (PRESEASON Michigan 48 BGSU 7)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/13/23, 2-0

  • SP+ Overall: 3rd (same), 27.7
    • SP+ Offense: 14th (↓3), 38.2
    • SP+ Defense: 3rd (same), 10.6
    • SP+ Special Teams: 40th (↑4), 0.1
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1458
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1533
  • CFP Rank: N/A