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Michigan Wolverine Football Podcast — Chasing Perfection – National Championship Preview

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Phil @pcallihan and Clint @Clint_Derringer the National Championship game versus Washington with special guest Andrew Percival @PDawg206 also RB Blake Corum, QB J.J. McCarthy, and Jim Harbaugh.

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Podcast Summary

  • Michigan football’s chances against Washington based on SP plus ratings.0:00
    • Offensive players emphasize teamwork and balance in attacking opponents.
    • Clint Derringer expects a strength-on-strength battle between Michigan’s defense and Washington’s offense.
    • Michigan offensive game plan was better than initially thought, despite sputtering at times.
  • Michigan’s strength in computer rankings.6:27
    • Percival highlights Michigan’s exceptional performance in advanced metrics, ranking them #1 in the country per their model.
    • The model favors Michigan over Alabama, despite Michigan not playing a non-conference P5 opponent, as the Big Ten is ranked #4 in the country.
  • Washington Huskies’ football team’s journey and performance.9:27
    • Phil Callihan reflects on Michigan Wolverines’ three-year journey, including their dramatic victory over Alabama and the team’s resilience despite setbacks.
    • Andrew Lange characterizes the team’s ride this season as “so much fun,” highlighting their strong start, mid-season ups and downs, and notable wins.
    • Percival highlights Washington’s close games against Oregon and Utah, describing them as “torturous nerve-racking” experiences.
    • Percival recounts Washington’s dramatic victory over Washington State, including a fourth-down conversion and a 25-yard touchdown reception.
    • Percival highlights Washington’s exceptional performance in close games, including a 3-point win over Oregon and a 4-point win over Texas as an underdog.
    • Phil Callihan expresses disappointment that Michigan and Washington won’t face off in the Rose Bowl, but is content with the win over Alabama.
  • Michigan football’s defense and their matchup against Washington’s Heisman-contending quarterback, Michael Penix.17:36
    • Michigan’s defense has remained consistent under different coordinators, with a focus on parallel strategies and successful game planning.
    • Clint Derringer sees Michael Penix as a transformed quarterback who went from good to great after developing his pocket passing skills, and now has the potential to lead Washington to victory against Michigan.
    • Phil Callihan agrees, noting that Penix’s game has evolved significantly since his Indiana days, and he now has the Heisman Trophy credentials to back it up.
  • Quarterback Penix’s accuracy and power.23:23
    • Penix has an “electric arm” with accuracy and power, demonstrated by his deep balls and ability to throw at a lower trajectory.
    • Penix’s progressions are quick, and he can throw with both power and accuracy, often completing passes beyond 25-30 yards downfield.
  • Michigan football quarterbacks and their strategies.26:22
    • Phil Callihan notes that Mike Sain is the X factor in the Michigan defense, with his sneaky speed and intelligent playmaking ability.
    • Clint Derringer compares JJ McCarthy to Penix, highlighting the difference in aggression and experience between the two quarterbacks.
    • Clint Derringer analyzes Michigan’s offensive strategy, highlighting their NFL-style run game and passing game built for big plays.
    • Jim Harbaugh is prepared to dust off 2021 game film against Washington, showing he’s comfortable handing off 20-30 times in a half if it’s working.
  • Michigan football’s run-heavy strategy vs. Washington.31:33
    • Jim Harbaugh highlights the importance of running the ball, citing George Patton’s success on the ground.
    • Clint Derringer believes Michigan will focus on running between the tackles to shorten the game and limit possessions, potentially limiting Washington’s offensive opportunities.
    • Clint Derringer agrees with Percival that Michigan’s commitment to running the ball will be tested by Washington’s ability to get up early and make the game shorter.
    • Derringer believes that while shortening the game favors the underdog, Michigan’s defense must continue to make plays to slow down Washington’s explosive offense.
    • Clint Derringer analyzes Michigan’s offensive strategy, highlighting their reliance on the run game to create explosive plays and wear down defenses.
    • Derringer notes that while Blake Corum hasn’t had as many long runs as in previous seasons, he’s still finding ways to break tackles and score touchdowns, often from 8-15 yards out.
  • Michigan Wolverines football strategy and analysis.39:36
    • Phil Callihan observes that JJ McCarthy’s shaky starts are a pattern, and Washington could try to exploit this by encouraging him to throw underneath and potentially get an interception.
    • Jim Harbaugh emphasizes the importance of running the ball effectively against Michigan’s defense, even if it means sacrificing some passing yards.
    • Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan discuss the impact of rule changes on college football, specifically the reduction of plays and possessions per game due to the clock no longer stopping on first downs.
    • Clint Derringer and Andrew discuss the importance of special teams and the potential for opponents to send everyone on every kick to try to make something happen.
  • College football playoffs and predictions.44:42
    • Percival is in disbelief that Michigan and Washington are in the college Football semi-finals, despite being an underdog in each game.
    • Percival is excited about the potential for an upset, citing the small point spread and history of underdog teams winning national championships.
    • Percival believes Michigan is overrated and predicts a Washington victory with a score of 31-28.
    • Percival acknowledges the challenges of playoff expansion and its impact on teams like Washington and Michigan.
  • Michigan football’s chances against Ohio State with analysis and predictions.51:03
    • Clint Derringer highlights the significance of the expansion model and its impact on the game, particularly the excitement of seeing southern powers play in northern games.
    • Derringer analyzes the similarities between Michigan’s recent games against Ohio State and the upcoming game, with a focus on the offensive line’s improved performance.
    • Clint Derringer expects Michigan to win the game by a score of 31-24, with their defense being the key to their success.
    • Andrew Percival is on Twitter at @PDAWG206, where he shares his research and insights on Michigan football.
  • Teamwork and belief in a sports program.55:54
    • J.J. McCarthy and Blake Corum discuss their team’s mentality and goals, with a focus on believing in themselves and overcoming obstacles.
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Michigan Wolverine Football Podcast — Unbreakable, Glorious – Michigan 27 Alabama 20 OT

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Phil @pcallihan and Clint @Clint_Derringer discuss Michigan’s 27-20 Overtime victory over Alabama in the Rose Bowl to secure a National Championship berth. With QB JJ McCarthy, RB Blake Corum, and Head Coach Jim Harbaugh.

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Podcast Archive

Podcast Summary

  • Michigan Wolverines’ Rose Bowl victory over Alabama.0:00
    • Michigan Wolverines win thrilling Rose Bowl game against Alabama in overtime, capping off an unbreakable season.
  • Michigan football game with highs and lows.1:49
    • Clint Derringer reflects on the emotional rollercoaster of Michigan’s game against Alabama, from elation to infuriation.
  • Michigan football’s special teams performance in a game against Alabama.4:02
    • Michigan’s special teams struggles cost them the game against Alabama.
    • Phil Callihan is thinking about a play during the game and wonders if anyone else noticed it.
    • Clint Derringer shares his frustration with a specific aspect of the game, including the hidden yardage gaps and the impact it had on the outcome of the game.
  • Michigan football’s special teams struggles in a game against Alabama.9:01
    • Alabama’s special teams mistakes led to two touchdowns for Michigan.
    • Clint Derringer praises Jesse Minter’s game plan and players’ execution in Michigan’s win over Alabama.
    • Michigan’s special teams struggles nearly cost them the game.
  • Michigan’s offensive performance despite mistakes.16:05
    • Michigan weathered a disastrous special teams performance to win the game, showcasing their resilience and teamwork.
    • Michigan offense executes a perfect game plan, targeting Alabama linebackers with their fastest player, Roman Wilson.
    • Clint Derringer highlights Blake Corum’s impressive performance in Michigan’s win, including his record-breaking touchdown run in overtime.
  • Michigan football’s performance in the Rose Bowl.22:06
    • Blake Corum reflects on his journey of self-discovery and growth, from surgery to Rose Bowl, and is excited for the next month’s challenges.
    • Phil Callihan compares Corum’s current performance to a pitcher adjusting their style, highlighting a possible decrease in explosive speed.
    • Michigan’s offensive line and defense showcase their talent and resilience in big moments.
    • Phil Callihan highlights Michigan’s resilience in overcoming special teams mistakes and offensive struggles to win the game.
    • Callihan notes that despite the issues, Michigan’s offense and defense both had good games, and the team’s ability to overcome challenges is a positive takeaway.
  • Michigan Wolverines’ football game performance.29:08
    • Michigan’s offense has consistently shown mental toughness and resilience in big moments.
    • Phil Callihan highlights the Michigan defense’s performance, particularly in the final play of the game, where they stopped the opposing team from scoring.
    • Clint Derringer agrees, emphasizing the no-star, no-name defense’s ability to come through in crucial moments.
    • Clint Derringer highlights Josiah Stewart’s crucial block on a Quarterback run, despite being the lightest of four edge players.
    • Junior Coulson leads the team in tackles despite injuries, including a stinger, and makes a big play on the final defensive stand.
    • Clint Derringer praises Michigan’s defense for their performance against Georgia, calling it the “finest stamp of approval” they’ve seen this season.
    • Derringer and Phil Callihan discuss Michigan’s preparation for the title game against Washington, with Derringer expressing optimism that they will play their best after a more natural game week.
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Michigan 27 Alabama 20 OT – Game 14 CFP SF Recap @ Rose Bowl

GAME 14 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 27-20 OT, Michigan by 7 over Alabama
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 8.4 (-1.4)
CD Projection: Michigan by 3 (+4)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 14 ROSE BOWL RECAP vs. Alabama

The Michigan offense was night and day different from first half to second half. The Wolverines held a 13-10 halftime lead after gifting the Tide an extra possession, but only ran nine plays in the third quarter. Of those nine Q3 plays, only one was successful, yielding an 11% success rate for the quarter. Just when negativity started to emerge throughout Wolverine nation, JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum rose to the occasion.

Down by seven with 4:41 to go, Michigan delivered a drive for the ages. The Wolverines marched eight plays, 75 yards, highlighted by a 4th & 2 pass from McCarthy to Corum to move into Alabama territory. McCarthy finished 17-27 for 221 yards and 3 TDs, while Corum scored twice. His rushing touchdown in overtime made him the program’s all-time rushing touchdown record holder, a well deserved honor for an iconic Michigan Man.

Defensively, coordinator Jesse Minter called a masterful game. The Wolverines piled up five sacks in the first half and finished with six total for the game. As the offense sputtered in the middle of the contest, the defense repeatedly had to come up with huge stops in high leverage moments. Linebacker Junior Colson battled through multiple injuries to lead the defense with ten tackles.

No play could be any bigger than the final stop of Jalen Milroe on 4th down in overtime. Defensive end Derrick Moore made a tremendous individual play to cross the face of the offensive tackle and make contact with Milroe behind the line of scrimmage. The rest of the Wolverines finished the tackle, and the celebration was allowed to commence around the country.

The special teams unit turned in their worst performance in memory, keeping the game closer than it should have been while Michigan dominated the other phases. Semaj Morgan muffed a punt in Q1 to set up Alabama’s first half touchdown. Two poor snaps led to a missed PAT, and a missed FG. And in the most heart-stopping moment of the day, the Tide’s final punt of regulation was muffed by Jake Thaw inside the 5-yard line. No doubt Jay Harbaugh will dedicate extra practice time to cleaning these issues up this week.

This game lived up to the heavyweight slugfest that it was hyped to be. While Michigan played sloppily, they also rose to the occasion in the largest moments. In that way, this Rose Bowl championship is a fitting microcosm for the whole 2023 season. But, the work’s not finished. Onward to Houston!

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Nothing But ‘Net – Week #10 – 01/01/2024 – So Much For “Guarantee” Games, And Mid-Term Grades

Happy New Year.  Let’s hope that 2024 is better than 2023 for Michigan basketball.

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played one game this past week, and they lost it.  On Friday (12/29/2023), they lost to McNeese 87-76 in Crisler Arena.  The loss lowers Michigan’s record to 6-7 (1-1 in Big Ten).

What Happened?

So much for “guarantee” games.  These are games that “good” teams schedule against “not so good” teams at home, with no return visit.  The “good” team guarantees a certain amount of money for the privilege of a home game without a return visit, and the “not so good” team is supposed to be happy with the money, since the “good” team will surely beat them.  Well, Michigan isn’t that good this season, and two of the “guarantee” games were decisive losses, not easy wins: Long Beach State (94-86) on 11/17/2023, and now McNeese (87-76) on Friday.  Losing one “guarantee” game in a season is considered highly embarrassing; losing two of them in a season is unheard of.

Now, Long Beach State and McNeese aren’t your normal “guarantee” game opponents, in fact, they both looked pretty darn good against Michigan, but still.  These were both games that Michigan could have won, but they certainly didn’t play their best ball.  McNeese was bigger, faster, and much more athletic that Michigan, and they deserved to win, but Michigan made it easier than they should have.

Game Flow

Early on, the game was close.  Michigan actually led for most of the first 6:15.  They were up 17-13 with 14:22 to go in the 1st half, but they let McNeese go on a 9-1 run, and McNeese was up 22-18 at the 11:02 mark.  Michigan got within 1 point (22-21) seconds later, then McNeese pulled away.  They got the lead as high as 12 points (35-23) with 5:47 to go, and it looked like they were going to run away with it, but Michigan fought back.  With 1:25 left in the half, Michigan actually led, 37-36, but that was the last time they led.  McNeese scored the last 4 points of the half, and they led 40-37 at halftime.

The 2nd half was very discouraging.  Michigan was powerless to stop McNeese.  Every time they made a mini-run to cut the deficit down to something manageable, McNeese answered with a run of their own.  They kept their lead up in the 7-9 point range for the rest of the game, occasionally letting Michigan get within 5 points.  With 3:23 left, McNeese pushed their lead up to 10 points (75-65), and they never let Michigan get any closer.  Michigan tried the desperation move of fouling a lot in the final 2:00, but McNeese hit enough of their free throws to keep the game out of reach.  It was a depressing loss.

Stats

The game stats            were miserable.  Michigan shot poorly overall (22-for-56 = 39.3%), they shot 3-pointers pretty well (13-for-35 = 37.1%), and they shot free throws well (19-for-23 = 82.6%).  They tied in the rebounding battle (36-36), but they lost the turnover battle horribly (15-4).  They lost this game with WAY too many turnovers.

Who Started?

The starters were Nimari Burnett, Dug McDaniel, Olivier Nkamhoua, Tarris Reed, Jr., and Terrance Williams II.

Who Looked Good?

Williams was the leading scorer, with 20 points on pretty good shooting: 5-for-9 overall, 4-for-8 from deep.  He even had 3 assists and 0 turnovers.  He held up his end.

McDaniel scored 17 points, and he kept Michigan in the game early with some timely 3-pointers, but he was cold in the 2nd half and sloppy with the ball (4 turnovers) the whole game.  He wasn’t the reason Michigan lost, but he hurt the effort as much as he helped it.

Nkamhoua also scored 17 points, all in the 2nd half, but he was also sloppy with the ball, with 4 turnovers.  He tried his best to get Michigan back in the game, but it was too little, too late.

Will Tschetter was the only other Michigan player in double figures, with 11 points off the bench.  He shot well (3-for-4 overall, 1-for-2 from deep), he grabbed 5 rebounds, and he had 0 turnovers.  He held up his end.

Who Looked Not-So-Good?

Reed was terrible, just terrible.  He missed his only shot attempt, and committed 4 fouls in 22 minutes of “action”.  Michigan could not get the ball in to him, and when they did, he couldn’t do anything with it.

Burnett was also lousy out there.  He scored 6 points on miserable shooting: 2-for-11 overall, 2-for-8 from deep.  He also committed 4 fouls and had 2 turnovers.  He hurt the team a lot more than he helped it.

Who Else Played?

Tray Jackson scored 3 points on 3-for-4 shooting from the free throw line.  He was 0-for-2 from the floor.

Youssef Khayat scored 2 points on 2-for-2 shooting from the free throw line.  He was 0-for-2 from the floor.

George Washington III missed his only shot attempt.

Who Didn’t Play?

Jaelin Llewellyn was the only scholarship player who didn’t play.  He wasn’t on the bench.  I don’t know what’s up with him.

None of the Scout Team players played: Ian Burns, Harrison Hochberg, Jackson Selvala, and Cooper Smith.

Jace Howard is still recovering from an injury, and not playing yet.  He’s expected back “later in the season”.

What Does It Mean?

I think we can stop hoping that Michigan will somehow finish above 0.500 and sneak into the NIT.  They won’t.  This season is lost, and they will be lucky to finish 10-21, which was my preseason prediction.  Most of the teams in the Big Ten are better than Long Beach State and McNeese, and Michigan was outplayed by both of them.  Michigan might beat a couple of the bottom teams in the Big Ten, and they might even pull off an upset of one of the contenders, but they don’t have the horses to win 10 Big Ten games.

Mid-Term Grades

With 13 games down, and 18 games to go, this is a good time to stop and hand out mid-term grades.  As you can imagine, mid-term grades for an underachieving 6-7 team will not be very good.

Freshman Eligibility

  • Harrison Hochberg (Inc.) – Harrison is on the Scout Team, and hasn’t played much: 7 minutes in 4 games.  He hasn’t attempted a shot yet.
  • George Washington III (C-) – George has been a major disappointment so far.  He has had his chances, and he hasn’t taken advantage of them.  He has played 58 minutes in 10 games, and has scored 6 points: 2-for-12 overall shooting, 1-for-5 from deep, and 1-for-2 from the free throw line.

Sophomore Eligibility

  • Nimari Burnett (B-) – Nimari has had some good games (St. John’s, Memphis, Iowa, and EMU) and some bad games (Youngstown State, Texas Tech, Indiana, and McNeese).  His 3-point shooting has been decent (23-for-69 = 33.3%), but his overall shooting has been weak (43-for-115 = 37.4%).  He’s averaging 9.8 points/game, which is OK.
  • Youssef Khayat (C+) – Youssef has played 35 minutes in 7 games, and he’s scored 15 points on lousy shooting: 4-for-13 overall (30.8%), 1-for-6 from deep (16.7%).  He is 6-for-6 shooting free throws.
  • Dug McDaniel (A) – Here it is: the only “A” in this batch of grades.  Dug has played his heart out every minute of every game.  He’s fast, he’s a great dribbler, he’s shooting well, and he runs the offense pretty well.  He’s shooting 44.7% overall (85-for-190) and 39.0% from deep (32-for-82).  He leads the team in scoring (19.0 points/game), assists (65), and steals (14).  He’s a warrior out there.
  • Tarris Reed, Jr. (B) – Tarris has had some good games (Stanford, Iowa, EMU, and Florida) and some bad games (Texas Tech, Oregon, Indiana, and McNeese).  He was a weapon against Iowa, but he was barely playable vs. McNeese.  His shooting percentage is very good (42-for-71 = 59.2%), but he hasn’t taken enough shots.  Michigan has had trouble getting the ball in to him at the post, and when they have, he often turns it over (24 turnovers).
  • Jackson Selvala (Inc.) – Jackson is on the Scout Team, and hasn’t played much: 11 minutes in 5 games.  He has attempted 2 shots, both 3-pointers, and he missed them both.
  • Cooper Smith (Inc.) – Cooper is on the Scout Team, and hasn’t played much: 8 minutes in 4 games.  He has scored 2 points, on 1-for-2 shooting.
  • Will Tschetter (B+) – Will has been a pleasant surprise so far this season.  After not scoring much his freshman year, he has blossomed this season.  He’s averaging 8.3 points/game on great shooting: 39-for-54 overall (72.2%) and 13-for-20 from deep (65.0%).  He has played small forward, power forward, and even (small) center, and he’s held his own, even against much taller centers.

Junior Eligibility

  • Ian Burns (Inc.) – Ian is on the Scout Team, and hasn’t played much: 12 minutes in 4 games.  He has attempted 2 shots, both 3-pointers, and he missed them both.  He has scored 2 points on 2-for-2 free throw shooting.
  • Jace Howard (Inc.) – Jace hasn’t played yet this season.  He has a foot injury that is taking forever to heal.

Senior Eligibility

  • Jaelin Llewellyn (Inc.) – Jaelin has only played in 4 games for a total of 39 minutes as he continues to rehab from a knee injury.  He’s shooting well, but just not enough: 4-for-6 overall (57.1%) and 3-for-5 from deep (60.0%).
  • Tray Jackson (B-) – Tray has provided some scoring and rebounding off the bench, but he only shows flashes of what he is capable of, then he disappears.  He’s averaging 5.7 points/game, with one great game (Long Beach State) and a bunch of too-quiet games (UNC-Asheville, Stanford, Florida, and McNeese).  His overall shooting has been pretty good (25-for-57 = 43.9%), but his 3-point shooting has been terrible (3-for-18 = 16.7%).
  • Olivier Nkamhoua (A-) – Olivier has been the second most valuable player on the team, after McDaniel.  He has played a lot of power forward and a bit of (small) center.  He has played hard in every game, and he has delivered.  He’s second on the team in scoring average (17.2 points/game), and he’s the leading rebounder (7.5 rebounds/game).  He’s been shooting well: 88-for-157 (56.1%) overall, 18-for-43 (41.9%) from deep.  His only blemish has been turnovers: 34 of them.
  • Terrance Williams II (B+) – Terrance has been another nice surprise this season.  After seeing him for 3 seasons, I thought I knew what to expect, but he has elevated his game this season.  He’s the third leading scorer on the team (12.3 points/game) with nice shooting numbers: 52-for-112 (46.4%) overall, 30-for-70 (42.9%) from deep.  Most importantly, he’s cut his fouls and turnovers way down from his career averages.

What’s Next?

This week, Michigan plays two games.  On Thursday (01/04/2024, 9:00 p.m., Peacock), they play Minnesota in Crisler Arena, then on Sunday (01/07/2024, 12:00 p.m., BTN), they play Penn State in The Palestra in Philadelphia, PA.  Both games (and all the rest of Michigan’s games) are Big Ten games.

Minnesota is currently 10-3 (1-1 in Big Ten), with no impressive wins, and an unimpressive loss to San Francisco.  They don’t have any noteworthy players, but they do have some height: two 6’11” players.  This is a team that Michigan can beat, but not if they play the way they did vs. Long Beach State and McNeese.

Penn State is currently 7-6 (1-1 in Big Ten), with an impressive win vs. Ohio State, and unimpressive losses to Butler, VCU, and Bucknell.  They don’t have any noteworthy players, but they do have some height: one 6’10” player and two 6’11” players.  This is one of the very few Big Ten games that Michigan could win, but they’ll have to play their best ball to win in on the road, even at a supposedly neutral site.

Check back next week to find out what happened and why.

Go Blue!