Michigan enters the 2024 season defending the 2023 National Championship, and as the three-time defending B1G Ten champions. However, the college football world is totally different with conference realignment expanding the B1G Ten to eighteen teams, and the CFP expanding to include twelve teams. The football program is also turning the page from the Harbaugh era into the Sherrone Moore era.
The new staff valued consistency on offense, hiring from within the program to fill coaching holes. On defense, every position coach is new to the program, but coordinator Wink Martindale was instrumental in designing the defensive scheme run by Jesse Minter in 2023. Finally, it’s August with a bright red target painted onto the back of the Wolverines, so we kick off the return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with this game-by-game preview of the 2024 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbers articles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.
The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system is meant to be predictive for making educated bets, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games.
What is SP+
SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date..
2024 Preseason SP+ Rankings (ESPN+)
Original Explanation (SB Nation)
PAST RESULTS
When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record and that of the SP+ projections, both straight up and against the spread (ATS) since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com in 2018. I track the preseason predictions (locked in August), as well as the game week predictions.
Predicting Michigan Games in Preseason (2018-23)
Predicting Michigan Games on Game Week (2018-23)
SP+ Projections & By the Numbers Predictions
Michigan 2024 SP+ Preseason Ranking
Overall – 7th, 25.0
Offense – 41st, 31.9
Defense – 3rd, 6.9
Michigan’s 3rd ranked SP+ defense will likely carry the load, especially early in the season while a new starting QB and new offensive line take time to settle in. The 2024 season does not have the same slow ramp up that the 2023 season had, so the Wolverines will need to round into shape very quickly in September to manage one of the nation’s toughest schedules.
2024 Regular Season Schedule
vs. Fresno State: 63rd Overall, 46th Offense, 88th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 27.6
PREDICTION: The national title celebration will continue into August in Ann Arbor as Wolverine fans return to the stadium and check out the 2023 signage. The Fresno State Bulldogs are no pushover, though. The former home of Kalen Deboer has new leadership again after Jeff Tedford stepped away this offseason due to health concerns and Tim Skipper takes over. I expect the Wolverines to ride the huge blue wave of energy from the fans under the lights at the Big House and overwhelm the Bulldogs early.
Michigan 31 Fresno St. 7, 1-0
vs. Texas: 5th Overall, 4th Offense, 12th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: Texas by 0.2
PREDICTION: The Texas Longhorns were right in the center of conference realignment frenzy when they joined the rival Sooners from Oklahoma and jumped from the Big 12 to the SEC. This is a program that is hungry coming off a CFP semifinal loss a year ago. While I have full confidence in Michigan’s defense to keep any game close, I think the difference is Texas’ experienced QB Quinn Ewers and returning 4 of 5 starters from a very effective offensive line. Early in the season, Michigan will still be ironing out too many wrinkles, and Texas will capitalize just enough to win in Ann Arbor.
Michigan 14 Texas 20, 1-1
vs. Arkansas State: 93rd Overall, 65th Offense, 122nd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 36.6
PREDICTION: While the Red Wolves may be contenders for a Sun Belt championship this season, they get a tough draw on the schedule here catching Michigan after a loss. The week of practice that focuses on correcting the inevitable mistakes that emerge against Texas will help propel the Michigan offense forward. On the flip side, Arkansas State will struggle to stop most teams, but could really get steamrolled with a wide talent margin. I expect to see one of the Wolverines’ best performances here, and they could really light up the scoreboard.
Michigan 33 Arkansas St. 6, 2-1
vs. USC: 21st Overall, 5th Offense, 83rd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 13.6
PREDICTION: The B1G Ten slate starts off with a banger as the USC Trojans come to Ann Arbor for a 3:30 kickoff. Miller Moss steps into huge shoes at quarterback, replacing 1st overall draft pick Caleb Williams. More importantly, D’Anton Lynn steps in as defensive coordinator, replacing Alex Grinch. In simple terms, I think the defense takes a moderate step forward, but the offense takes a larger step backward. The net result is an overrated team from Los Angeles.
Michigan 27 USC 10, 3-1
vs. Minnesota: 47th Overall, 89th Offense, 22nd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 23.3
PREDICTION: PJ Fleck is still searching for the formula he used to rack up 10-win seasons for the Gophers when he first arrived in Minneapolis. While the defense has been shored up, the offense still lacks consistency. In 2024 Fleck will turn to Max Hosmer, a transfer from New Hampshire who slings it all over. I’m skeptical that Minnesota will have it figured out on offense in early October. This could be a chance for a breakout game for the Wolverines’ pass rushers.
Michigan 24 Minnesota 9, 4-1
@ Washington: 32nd Overall, 26th Offense, 44th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 12.2
PREDICTION: The rematch of last season’s CFP National Championship game will feature two very different teams. Former friend & trusted agent Jedd Fisch takes over the program after Kalen DeBoer moved to Tuscaloosa. The Huskies are also replacing nearly every starter from their high-powered offense from a year ago, just like Michigan. I am always wary of away games in tough environments, and Seattle definitely qualifies. It’s also the first road trip of the season, and a west coast swing to boot. I predict the Wolverines will have to find a way to battle and steal a victory in a game where they may not play their best.
Michigan 21 Washington 20, 5-1
@ Illinois: 61st Overall, 87th Offense, 40th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 22.4
PREDICTION: Michigan returns from a mid-season bye week and hits the road again to visit Champagne and take on Bret Bielma’s Illini squad. Illinois returns a good chunk of their offensive production, but they need to improve in the trenches. I like their chances to take a step forward on both the offensive and defensive lines in 2024. But, this matchup doesn’t align very well for the Illini. They want to smash a defense up the middle, and that is the strength of the Wolverines’ D. This is probably another ugly game, but I expect Michigan to win the field position battle and to chalk up another W.
Michigan 20 Illinois 7, 6-1
vs. Michigan State: 71st Overall, 121st Offense, 26th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 29.9
PREDICTION: Another program looking to turn the page into a new era is just up the road in East Lansing. The Spartans hired well when they snagged Jonathon Smith from Oregon State. The turnover in personnel will keep Michigan State on the wrong side of the ledger against the best teams. However, I expect them to surprise somebody at least once in 2024. The Wolverines will not be that team. Sparty still has the full attention of the players in Ann Arbor, and the Michigan faithful will be amped up to welcome the team home to the Big House. Tough break for State.
Michigan 30 Michigan State 3, 7-1
vs. Oregon: 3rd Overall, 1st Offense, 15th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: Oregon by 1.5
PREDICTION: Oregon is a trendy pick to win a B1G Ten title in their first year in the conference. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel transferred in from Oklahoma and leads the SP+ top-ranked offense. While the schedule makers created a very tough slate for the Wolverines, they do get a small break hosting the Ducks in November. Oregon will come into the game having already played Ohio State at home, as well. I think that opportunity to scout the Ducks’ best shot will give the Wolverines’ defense just enough edge to slow down Oregon. Also, by the ninth game, we’ll start to see the Michigan offensive line really moving people up front. This game will plant U-M right back into the national title conversation.
Michigan 24 Oregon 13, 8-1
@ Indiana: 81st Overall, 91st Offense, 61st Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 27.0
PREDICTION: New head coach Curt Cignetti decided he wanted to kick down the doors on his entrance into the B1G Ten, calling out not only the rival Boilermakers but Michigan and Ohio State too. The Hoosiers’ roster has also been imported from James Madison University. Even if Indiana moves leaps and bounds forward, they are still not on the same level as the Wolverines from a talent perspective. That will show in this game as depth becomes a major factor this deep into the season.
Michigan 28 Indiana 10, 9-1
vs. Northwestern: 75th Overall, 117th Offense, 29th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 30.3
PREDICTION: Michigan will come off the second bye week of the season and host the Northwestern Wildcats for Senior Day at the Big House. David Braun pulled a rabbit out of his hat in 2023, leading the ‘Cats to an 8-5 finish. Many pundits questioned whether they would win any games at all. I would be surprised to see the positivity extend into 2024, though. Northwestern will still struggle to move the ball against B1G Ten teams. And, by late November they could be sporting a very thin two-deep. The Wolverines will likely keep their best stuff on the shelf in this game with many eyeballs turning toward Columbus.
Michigan 23 Northwestern 6, 10-1
@ Ohio State: 2nd Overall, 25th Offense, 2nd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: OSU by 8.3
PREDICTION: It’s a bit startling to see Ohio State head into a season with an offense ranked as low as 25th in SP+. The Buckeyes are perennially at the top of Bill Connelly’s ratings on offense. After pinning the blame for the 2023 loss on Kyle McCord, the program forced him out via transfer to Syracuse. In comes running QB Will Howard, and new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly to call plays. These two defensive units may very well be the best two in the country, so the team who minimizes mistakes on offense and special teams is going to win. If the Wolverines were at home, I would pick them to win, but right now I lean toward a Buckeye victory in the Shoe.
Michigan 17 Ohio State 21, 10-2
3rd Place in B1G Ten
CFP At-Large Selection – 8th seed
