2018 MICHIGAN FOOTBALL By the Numbers Podcast Michigan 42 Penn State 7

Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer discuss Michigan’s 42-7 victory over Penn State using Clint’s modified S&P+ analysis methods that indicates Michigan is one of the top teams in the nation. Why Michigan’s offense is so much this season, how to attack the Michigan defense, and much more.

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Michigan Football By the Numbers: Penn State

The first three stops on the Revenge Tour have been overwhelming for the opponents.  The challenge for Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines will be to maintain the “one game at a time” focus for two more weeks versus Rutgers and Indiana without minds wandering to Columbus for the Grand Finale.

What is S&P+
The original system was based on Success rate and equivalent Points per play. It was an attempt at an OPS-style measure for football, a look at both efficiency and explosiveness. As so many things do, however, it has grown more complicated.In its current state, S&P+ is based around the core concepts of the Five Factors of winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnoversFull Explanation 
TABLE: FIVE FACTORS

OFFENSE

Memo to Jim Harbaugh & Warde Manuel: Please find a way to lock Ed Warriner up with a long-term contract!  The question marks we all saw along the offensive line during fall camp, and versus Notre Dame in week one, have been transformed to exclamation points in front of our eyes.  After wearing down what used to be the #1 rush defense two weeks ago in East Lansing, Michigan’s offensive line allowed just two negative-yardage plays versus the Nittany Lions’ defensive front that came in leading the Big Ten in that category.  In the last three Big Ten games versus Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Penn State, the Wolverines’ ground-and-pound strategy has been led masterfully by the big guys in the trenches.  Over and above the rushing stats, and keeping Shea Patterson clean, Runyan Jr., Bredeson, Ruiz, Owenu, and Bushell-Beatty have enabled a multi-faceted offense because they are executing multiple zone and gap schemes.  Michigan has proven that they are capable of adapting their offensive approach to whatever an opponent gives them.  From this point forward, only individual lack of execution could still stand in the way of continued success for the offense.

DEFENSE

The King of Defensive Coordinators has done it again.  Don Brown’s squad smothered the Nittany Lions into the dirt.  When isolating to only successful plays, Penn State actually managed to be more explosive than Michigan (SEE: IsoPPP in the Five Factors table).  However, those chunk plays for Penn State seemed like gasps for air from a panicked swimmer in a “Jaws” sequel.  Trace McSorley was clearly less than 100% from the moment he stepped onto the field at Michigan Stadium.  It’s a safe bet that he left Ann Arbor even less healthy than he came in.  The Wolverines sacked PSU quarterbacks five times, and forced three turnovers.  Brandon Watson’s interception return for a touchdown matches the lone touchdown that Penn State was fortunate to salvage versus the backups on the final drive. Let me say it this way: Jim Harbaugh could have allowed the Nittany Lions to consider it a touchdown if they crossed Michigan’s 40-yard-line, and the Wolverines still would have won 42-14 (Trips inside opp40: Michigan 7 Penn State 2).

S&P+ THROUGH WEEK 10

MICHIGAN S&P+
Overall: 25.4, 3rd (up 1)
Offense: 35.2, 24th (up 6)
Defense: 10.0, 1st (same)

REGULAR SEASON PROJECTIONS vs. RESULTS

vs. Penn State UM 42 PSU 7
Pregame Midpoint S&P+: UM by 5.8, 9-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 24, 8-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 8.3

NEXT UP

@ Rutgers: Overall -19.0, 126th
M Offense 35.2, (25th) vs. O Defense 32.3 (94th), Midpoint: 33.75
M Defense 10.0 (1st) vs. O Offense 13.1 (128th), Midpoint: 11.55

PREGAME EDGE: Michigan
The midpoint of S&P+ ratings gives a 22.2 point edge to Michigan. I don’t know if that’s enough to cover the halftime score. Rutgers has plummeted to fifth-from-the-bottom among FBS schools.

GAME WEEK UPDATE: I foresee a lot of carries for Chris Evans, and Tru Wilson. If 2016 is any indication, the Wolverines will want to execute a few new plays, and would like to be explosive in front of their east coast recruits. There are really two key things for this game: 1) stay healthy 2) stay focused on the task at hand.
Michigan 48 Rutgers 3 (PRESEASON: Michigan 34 Rutgers 3)

TL; DR SUMMARY

The Michigan Football team is building to a November crescendo exactly the way Jim Harbaugh envisioned when he overhauled his coaching and strength training staff last winter. Every goal set by the Wolverines is starting to appear on the horizon. Now the challenge is to maintain focus on all three Big Ten foes who remain in the way.  Onward!

Nothing But ‘Net – Week #02 – 11/05/2018 – The (Yawn) Exhibition Game

The (#19) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played their first and only exhibition game on Friday (11/02/2018) in Crisler Arena, and they pounded poor Northwood University 90-58. Since it was only an exhibition game, Michigan’s record is still 0-0.

I enjoyed Question & Answer Time so much last week, I’m going to do it again. If you have any questions you’d like me to answer, send them to dmontag@umgoblue.com.

Q: So, what happened?

A: Michigan trounced an overmatched opponent in what was realistically a controlled scrimmage/dunk practice. I get it: an exhibition game is a good way to work out some of the kinks, give the new guys a chance to get rid of the “first game jitters”, and for Coach Beilein to try some different lineup combinations in a “can’t lose” situation, but it’s hard to get excited about an exhibition game, and it’s hard to learn anything about the team from it.

Q: How did the game go?

A: About what you’d expect from a game against a 6th place GLIAC team: Michigan overpowered them and won on sheer athletic ability, not with any finesse or style. UM raced out to a 19-10 lead at the 12:14 mark in the 1st half, and kept the lead in the 10-15 point range for the rest of the half. It was 41-26 at halftime. Early in the 2nd half, Michigan pushed the lead up over 20 points, and that was the game. The lead got as high as 35 points (86-51) before the final 32-point margin.

Q: Who were the starters?

A: The starters were: Ignas Brazdeikis, Charles Matthews, Jordan Poole, Zavier Simpson, and Jon Teske. The only surprise here was Iggy starting instead of Isaiah Livers, who started most of the games last season. Livers was the first player off the bench. We’ll see if this is the starting lineup for the real games.

Q: Who were the “mainstream” subs?

A: The subs who played in the “real” part of the game (not “garbage time”) were: Eli Brooks, Austin Davis, David DeJulius, Brandon Johns, Jr., and Livers.

Q: Who played in “garbage time”?

A: With the game a runaway/blowout, Coach Beilein emptied his bench in the last 4 minutes, so everyone played: C.J. Baird, Colin Castleton, Adrien Nuñez, and Luke Wilson.

Q: Who looked good?

A: That’s a tough one. Six players scored in double figures, with Matthews as the leading scorer with 15 points, but nobody really looked “good”. Among the starters, Simpson (5-for-5), Teske (4-for-5), and Iggy (6-for-9) were the most efficient, but their made baskets were mostly dunks and layups. The other 2 starters (Matthews and Poole) didn’t shoot very well (5-for-12 each), and scored most of their points at the rim. No one made more than one 3-pointer, even though Poole hoisted up 4 of them. Teske did try, and make, a 3-pointer!

For the mainstream subs, Brooks (2-for-2), Davis (1-for-1), and Johns (1-for-1) were certainly efficient, but didn’t shoot much. Livers shot a lot, but not very efficiently (5-for-9) for 10 points. Brooks was definitely the most improved player from last season.

For the scrubs, Baird (1-for-1) hit a 3-pointer, and Castleton (1-for-2) had a nice putback offensive rebound.

Q: Who looked not-so-good?

A: That’s also a tough one. No one looked bad, but a couple players never got a chance to do anything interesting: Nuñez and Wilson.

Q: How were the team stats?

A: Deceptive. Overall, UM shot a good percentage (37-for-62 = 59.7%), but most of the made baskets were dunks or layups. The 3-point shooting (5-for-14 = 35.7%) was shaky, and the mid-range shooting was just as bad. One of the biggest weaknesses last season, free throw shooting, was a minor problem in this game: 11-for-16 = 68.8%. That’s not bad, but it’s not very good either. As expected, Michigan won the rebounding battle easily (41-28), but it was surprising that they barely won the turnover battle (15-19). 15 turnovers is not very good, but it’s understandable in a sloppy exhibition game.

Q: What are the areas of concern?

A: Outside shooting, turnovers, and defensive rebounding. Michigan missed their first nine 3-point attempts, and just about every shot from more than 5 feet out, and they allowed a much smaller Northwood team to get 12 offensive rebounds, leading to 12 second-chance points. I’m assuming that the coaches will get this cleaned up.

Q: What did we learn?

A: We learned that exhibition games can be boring, and that they don’t tell us much. We did get a rough idea of which of the freshmen are college-ready (Iggy and Johns) and which ones need more work (the other three).

Q: What’s next?

A: Michigan plays two games this week: the first regular season game is this Tuesday (11/06/2018, 8:30 p.m., BTN) vs. Norfolk State in Crisler Arena, and they play again on Saturday (11/10/2018, 7:30 p.m., BTN+) vs. Holy Cross, also in Crisler. These are games that Michigan should win easily.

Both of these games are the “Campus Round” of the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall Of Fame Tip-Off Tournament. The four main teams in the “Naismith Bracket” (Michigan, George Washington, Providence, and South Carolina) all play 2 “Campus Round” games against teams in the “Springfield Bracket” on their home courts, but they all advance to the “Naismith Bracket” in Uncasville, Connecticut (where?) on 11/17 and 11/18. The four smaller teams (Norfolk State, Holy Cross, Stony Brook, and Siena) also play in Uncasville in their own bracket on 11/16 – 11/18.

That’s it for this week. Come on down to Crisler on Tuesday and Saturday for the games, and drop by Sections 209/210 to say hi.

Go Blue!