UMGOBLUE.COM Michigan Wolverine Football & Basketball
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Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer look ahead to Michigan’s Big Ten season opening game vs Winsconsin using modified SP+ statistical analysis.
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During the bye week, I was able to take a peek back to the three previous meetings between Michigan and Wisconsin. Here is a quick review of those games through an SP+ lens. When game statistics feed into Bill Connelly’s SP+ system, a Postgame Win Expectancy gets created. The system calculates the percentage of repeated games with those statistics that would result in a Michigan win. Under Jim Harbaugh, Michigan has a 2-1 record versus the Badgers.
2018: #17 Wisconsin @ #5 Michigan; W 38-13; Postgame Win Exp. 86%
Michigan started to see the offensive line gel as a unit, and the Arc Read QB read option package made its debut. The defense was without Rashan Gary, but Kwity Paye and Josh Uche filled in admirably. Inexplicably, Wisconsin continually took Jonathon Taylor off the field on 3rd down.
2017 (SBNation): #27 Michigan @ #6 Wisconsin; L 10-24; Postgame Win Exp. 26%
Both defensive units established dominance in 2017, but the Wisconsin offense was able to make more big plays in key spots. Wisconsin edged Michigan slightly in success rate 31% to 27%, but had a much more prominent edge in explosiveness. The Badgers dominated the Yards/Play metric 5.27 to 3.68. On standard downs, the Badgers recorded an IsoPPP of 1.08 compared to 0.75 for the Wolverines.
2016 (SBNation): #11 Wisconsin @ #3 Michigan; W 14-7; Postgame Win Exp. 97%
In 2016, Michigan utilized an Army-style game plan to grind out a one-score victory. The Wolverines ran 80 offensive plays, compared to just 53 for the Badgers, and were also boosted by a +2 turnover margin. While being slightly less explosive, especially in the ground game, Michigan doubled the success rate of Wisconsin 42% to 21%. The game was kept close largely because of the Wolverines’ inability to finish drives. Michigan averaged 2.33 points in six trips inside Wisconsin’s 40 yard line. The Badgers only created three scoring opportunities in the game.
PREGAME SP+: Wisconsin by 9.0, Michigan Win Probability 30%
Michigan’s defense has moved up to 1st in SP+ unit rankings, but the offense is down to 74th. That is below average for FBS, and way below Power 5 average.
Michigan Offense (74th) vs. Wisconsin Defense (10th)
This match up will likely determine Saturday’s winner. The Wolverines absolutely MUST eliminate turnovers, and they would be well served to continually move the chains and give the defense a break. I expect to see an outing that looks more like Week 1 vs. MTSU (still not flawless) as opposed to what we saw in Week 2 vs. Army. The expected return of Donovan Peoples-Jones should lead to increased space for Shea Patterson to attack through the air. That in turn could stretch the Wisconsin linebackers out of the zone running lanes for Zach Charbonnet and Christian Turner.
Michigan Defense (1st) vs. Wisconsin Offense (16th)
Don Brown will come up with a creative game plan to contain the Badgers’ rushing attack. The key for the game will be whether Wisconsin can exploit Michigan’s lack of depth on the interior defensive line. The Wolverines will need to swarm to the ball on every tackle to limit +2, +3, and +4 yard running play add-ons by Jonathon Taylor. It would also be crucial for an opportunistic Michigan defense to create an early turnover and help take the crowd out of the game.
PREDICTION: Jim Harbaugh’s appreciation of this team’s work ethic, and their ability to string together good practices encourages me a bit. His short press conference answer about “having a good team” as the key to winning on the road seemed abrupt to some. However, he has previously discussed that being a “good team” is being able to find a way to be successful in the face of adversity. In the Army post game, he also alluded to good teams having to win a “football fight” like the Wolverines did against the Black Knights. These intangibles should be a program focus for improving road game performance in 2019. With all of that said, I haven’t seen enough offensive cohesion or explosiveness to outweigh my preseason concerns about Michigan winning away from Ann Arbor.
Wisconsin 27 Michigan 23 (PRESEASON Wisconsin 26 Michigan 24)
Phil Callihan and special guest Adam Schnepp from MGoBlog discuss the state of Michigan football heading into the Big Ten opener vs Wisconsin.
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Michigan Head Coach Jim Harbaugh Monday Press Conference, Harbaugh talks about what his team needs to beat Wisconsin.
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Who has it better than us? NOBODY.
Once again, John Bacon has delivered a riveting, detail-rich, insider view of the Michigan football program under head coach Jim Harbaugh.
One can imagine future historians struggling to make sense of how college football has become such an integral part of our culture.
Hopefully, the collected works of John Bacon will survive to help explain why players spend 8,760 hours a year in preparation to play games representing institutions of higher education and why millions of fans cheer them on.
“Overtime” is aptly named; indeed after the Bacon’s previous book on Michigan football, “Endzone: The Rise, Fall, and Return of Michigan Football,” it seemed that the Wolverine trilogy was complete. Feckless Michigan Athletic Director David Brandon had been cast out, Michigan’s hometown hero Jim Harbaugh had returned, and all was well in the kingdom.
Surely Big Ten Championships and College Football Play-off berths were right around corner.
Bacon’s first Michigan football book “Bo’s Lasting Lessons: The Legendary Coach Teaches the Timeless Fundamentals of Leadership,” was a primer on how to lead organizations while instilling values, was a huge hit. Perhaps its only defect was the inclusion a relatively minor former player named David Brandon who would later threaten the very culture that Schembechler helped build.
Bacon returned with “Three and Out: Rich Rodriguez and the Michigan Wolverines in the Crucible of College Football” the story of a bungled coaching search which could have been subtitled, “how Michigan tried to force a round peg in a square hole powered by egomania of David Brandon”. “Endzone” was the fallout of the Brandon era and the triumphant return of Harbaugh to Ann Arbor.
While all of Bacon’s Michigan football books are great, “Overtime” may be his finest work on the subject.
While football fans have known the name Jim Harbaugh since his time playing QB in college, he is perhaps the most enigmatic character in the history of Michigan football. With no misunderstood outsider (Rodriguez) or clueless administrator (Brandon) to play foil to the glory of Wolverine football, “Overtime” dedicates 400+ pages to a deep dive on Jim Harbaugh as his team competes during the 2018 season.
Football is a religion for Harbaugh, the every day work to drill and prepare for games is a reward unto itself. While outsiders may roll their eyes at a coach making millions of dollars a year espousing such fundamental values, Bacon makes a compelling case that this who Harbaugh is.
Schembechler is adored but he never won a national championship. The college football world today is much more difficult than the one Schembechler faced during his career. The Big Ten is no longer the big two and the little eight; Michigan faces a much harder gauntlet to win a Big Ten Championship since the conference has expanded.
Nationally, it competes against SEC schools fueled by home field recruiting advantage, a tolerance for gray shirting practices, and a willingness to bend NCAA rules to compensate their players for living expenses more than other conferences.
“Overtime” poses some difficult questions for Michigan football fans.
Harbaugh hasn’t yet delivered a victory over Ohio State or a Big Ten Championship. Are the advantages allowed to other schools by the NCAA (and blatant rule breaking) too much for Michigan to overcome?
Much has been made of Harbaugh’s quote, “It’s hard to beat the cheaters,” but taken in context readers understand that he is not resigned to taking a backseat to these programs, but rather relishes the opportunity to win the right way while not compromising his values.
The individual stories of Michigan players are a running thread throughout the book. One player has his post football career derailed due to a lingering injury. It comes as a punch to the gut after a disappointing senior football season.
It’s not fair.
And that’s the ultimate lesson of “Overtime.” Harbaugh turned down NFL jobs to return to Michigan but beating Ohio State isn’t guaranteed. The players may spend 8,760 hours every year preparing for a dozen or so football games but NFL jobs are a long shot.
The competitive landscape of college football is tilted towards the cheaters and the NCAA (No Common sense At All) is a joke.
Some of these 400+ pages will be difficult for Michigan fans but they will be proud of their coach and the young men who play for their team.
Note – I’m not counting 4th and Long as a Michigan football title since it also covers Northwestern and Penn State.
