Nothing But ‘Net – Week #02 – 11/04/2019 – The Exhibition Game

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played their first and only exhibition game on Friday (11/01/2019) in Crisler Arena, and they pounded poor Saginaw Valley State University 82-51.  Since it was only an exhibition game, Michigan’s record is still 0-0.

What Happened?

Michigan led the whole game, jumping out to a 10-point lead right away, and stretching it to 14 points (26-12) midway through the 1st half.  Then they fell asleep, and let SVSU creep back into the game with some sloppy offense and indifferent defense.  With 2:13 left in the half, Michigan’s lead was down to 2 points (31-29), and the crowd was getting uneasy.  Fortunately, Michigan woke up and finished the half with a 10-0 run, to make the score more comfortable (41-29).  They continued the run into the 2nd half, and pushed the lead to 20 (58-38), then 30 and more.  The 2nd half was never close.

Stats

Michigan shot pretty poorly overall (25-for-61 = 41.0%), they shot 3-pointers pretty poorly (9-for-31 = 29.0%), and they shot free throws pretty well (23-for-30 = 76.7%).  They won the rebounding battle (44-40) and the turnover battle (11-20).

Who Started?

The starters were Zavier Simpson, Eli Brooks, Adrien Nuñez, Isaiah Livers, and Jon Teske.

Note: I missed it when Livers switched his number from #4 (the last 2 seasons) to #2 (this season).  He wore #2 in high school, and it was his preferred number, but he let Jordan Poole wear it the last 2 seasons.  Now that Poole is in the NBA, Livers got it back.

Who Looked Good?

Livers was the leading scorer, with 20 points.  He shot a good percentage overall (7-for-11) and from 3-poiht range (4-for-8).

Brooks had a double-double, with 13 points and 10 rebounds.  He had a terrible overall shooting percentage (1-for-7), but the only shot he hit was a 3-pointer (1-for-4).  He was tremendous from the free-throw line (10-for-10).

Brandon Johns, Jr. was the only other Michigan player in double figures, with 12 points, on good shooting (4-for-5 overall, 2-for-3 from deep).

Simpson didn’t hit double figures in points (7), but he did have 11 assists.

Nuñez was the only other Michigan player to make a 3-pointer.  He had 7 points on poor shooting (2-for-6 overall, 1-for-5 from deep).

Teske didn’t score much (6 points), but he did have 9 rebounds.

Who Looked Not-So-Good?

Cole Bajema only played 5 minutes, missed his only shot (a 3-point attempt), and made a free throw, for 1 point.  He didn’t play badly, he just didn’t do much.

Colin Castleton played 17 minutes, and scored 6 points on 2-for-5 shooting.  He had 3 rebounds.  He didn’t play badly, he just didn’t do much.

Austin Davis only played 6 minutes, and made his only shot (a dunk) and a free throw, for 3 points.  He didn’t play badly, he just didn’t do much.

David DeJulius played 24 minutes, and scored 5 points on 2-for-9 shooting.  After his performance in the “secret” scrimmage and the open practice, I expected a lot more from him.

Who Else Played?

Coach Howard emptied the bench for the final 3 minutes, so 4 players from the practice squad got to play: C.J. Baird, Jaron Faulds, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson.  Rico made the only basket, for 2 points.

Who Didn’t Play?

Franz Wagner has a broken wrist, and didn’t suit up.

What Does It Mean?

It’s hard to learn much from an exhibition game against an overmatched opponent.  We saw improvement from last season for some players (Johns and Nuñez), and unimpressive outings from others (Castleton and DeJulius).  We saw about what we expected from the upperclassmen (Simpson, Teske, Livers, and Brooks).  We didn’t see enough of the lone healthy freshman (Bajema) to make any judgement.

What’s Next?

Michigan’s first real game is Tuesday (11/05/2019, 7:00 p.m., BTN) vs. Appalachian State, in Crisler Arena.  ASU was 11-21 last season, and they don’t figure to be much better this season.  They don’t have anyone taller than 6’9” on their roster, and they’re pretty young.  Michigan should be able to handle them pretty easily.

Go Blue!

Michigan 38 Maryland 7 – Week 10 Recap

WEEK 10 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 38-7, Michigan by 31 over Maryland
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 16.3 (+14.7)
CD Projection: Michigan by 17 (+14)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 10 RECAP @ Maryland

The narrative that the media preferred was Michigan offensive coordinator Josh Gattis vs. Maryland head coach Mike Locksley.  After some chippiness back in the summer, both coaches downplayed that media angle going into the Week 10 game in College Park.  Instead, Michigan won this game by controlling every phase of the game, although by a smaller margin than many expected. The Wolverines had a smallish edge in each of the Five Factors in the box score above.  

Offensively, Michigan chose a very balanced approach with 55 % of play calls being run plays.  The ground game accounted for 46% of the total yardage. Zach Charbonnet continues to churn out yards and find the end zone.  This week he became the all-time record holder for rushing touchdowns in a freshman season. In the first half, explosive plays were the difference between the Wolverines and Terps.  On a key 51 yard bomb to Nico Collins, quarterback Shea Patterson looked to be in much better rhythm and hit Collins in stride over the top of the defense.

On the defensive side of the ball, Michigan’s opponents continue to come up with successful game plans versus Don Brown.  However, that success has a shelf life of only the first quarter. Once Brown’s adjustments are made, Michigan dominates statistically, and the opposing offense is left seeing stars.  Only 0.3% separated Maryland’s success rate and Michigan’s. But after missing a 37-yard field goal attempt in the 2nd quarter, the Terrapins punted on their next seven possessions. Maryland only amassed 78 total yards on those seven drives.

Michigan now heads into their second bye week.  The additional time off should serve the Wolverines well by providing additional opportunity to nurse bumps, bruises, and minor injuries.  Michigan did not perform well coming out of the first bye week to play a road game at Wisconsin. This time, the second of three home rivalry games awaits on the other side of the bye.  I am sure Jim Harbaugh’s staff will be digging deep into their detail prep while watching the Michigan State Spartans try to right the ship against Illinois.

By the Numbers: Week 10 @ Maryland

LAST WEEK RECAP

The running game clicked on offense, and the defense swarmed as Michigan dominated Notre Dame 45-14.  The win will be remembered as Jim Harbaugh’s second over a top 10 team, but SP+ had Notre Dame ranked 19th going in.

NEXT UP: @ Maryland: 56th, 2.3

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 16.3, Michigan Win Probability 83%
Michigan’s defensive unit ranking continues to climb, currently up to #2 in SP+ rankings.  The offense, after an early season drop to #72, has clawed back to 41st against some solid defensive teams.  The special teams unit continues to drop, now down another fourteen spots to #80.

Michigan Offense (41st) vs. Maryland Defense (64th) 
My calls for patience regarding this offense are starting to look better.  If the Wolverines can put together another dominating offensive performance on the road versus an average defense, then I will officially feel vindicated.  In the preseason preview I mentioned that SP+ ranked Maryland defense exactly in the middle (65th). As the calendar turns to November the Terps defense is 64th, and gave up 42 points per game in their last three contests (@ Purdue, vs. Indiana, @ Minnesota).  I wonder if offensive coordinator Josh Gattis and Jim Harbaugh remember the Terrapins’ head coach making snide comments (“Josh who?”) at Big Ten Media Day regarding his former assistant at Alabama.

Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Maryland Offense (58th)
In 2018, most of us (Michigan fans) were taken by surprise when Ohio State sprung an offensive assault on Don Brown’s defense.  The defense’s performance in late season games may have been sending us warning signs. After a tremendous week 8 performance last year in East Lansing, Michigan’s YTD success rate against was 33%.  At that point, the defense allowed an average of 3.9 yards per play (YPP), and IsoPPP (Points gained per successful play) was 0.84.  I compared those averages to what we saw in those metrics from games #9-12 in 2018 below. Going into Game #9 of the 2019 season, on the road versus an average opponent, the Michigan defense MUST maintain their high level of play and attention to detail.  The last thing the Wolverines need is another downward trend through November.

  • Michigan 2018 Defense Avg. through 8 Games
    • Efficiency: 33% Success Rate
    • Explosiveness: YPP 3.9 IsoPP 0.84
  • Game 9 vs. Penn State
    • Efficiency: 28% Success Rate
    • Explosiveness: YPP 4.0 IsoPP 0.95
  • Game 10 @ Rutgers
    • Efficiency: 25% Success Rate
    • Explosiveness: YPP 4.8 IsoPP 1.24
  • Game 11 vs. Indiana
    • Efficiency: 35% Success Rate
    • Explosiveness: YPP 5.1 IsoPP 1.01
  • Game 12 @ Ohio State
    • Efficiency: 51% Success rate
    • Explosiveness: YPP 8.8 IsoPP 1.24

PREDICTION: Michigan’s dominance over Notre Dame made most of us feel better, and I am relieved for that.  I started to wonder where my own optimism was coming from after the heartbreak in Happy Valley.  Now, going into this road tilt in College Park, I think the pendulum may have swung the other way.  The fan base is back to expecting a total blowout, and I am more conservative. Until I see at least one complete performance away from the Big House, it will be tough for me to predict one.  I expect this game to feel similar to the Illinois game, with a handful of problems smearing our memory of a multi-score victory.
Michigan 30 Maryland 13 (PRESEASON Michigan 35 Maryland 7)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/27/2019), 6-2

  • SP+ Overall: 11th (↑3), 21.1
    • SP+ Offense:41st (↑11), 32.6
    • SP+ Defense: 2nd (↑2), 11.4
    • SP+ Sp. Teams 80th (↓14) -0.1
  • AP Poll: 14th (↑5), 744
  • Coaches’ Poll: 15th (↑5), 652
  • CFP Rank: N/A
Week 10 Resume