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Michigan 10 Iowa 3 – Week 6 Recap

WEEK 6 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 10-3, Michigan by 7 over Iowa
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 4.0 (+3)
CD Projection: Michigan by 7 (same)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 6 RECAP vs. Iowa

On a classic “Big Ten weather” October day (59º and gray), Michigan and Iowa played a throwback Big Ten style smashmouth game.  The Wolverines were able to hold on and beat the Hawkeyes 10-3 thanks in large part to a swarming defense. Michigan’s offense still appears disjointed most of the time as Shea Patterson struggles to spread the ball around to multiple weapons.  

The defensive staff deserves a ton of credit.  Don Brown’s unit continues to tinker with multiple fronts and coverages in an attempt to confuse the offense.  For today, it was a rousing success. Michigan was able to record 13 tackles for loss and 8 sacks against a Hawkeye squad that had not given up many negative plays through four games.  Within both zone and man coverage schemes, Cam McGrone and Daxton Hill were called upon to handle more issues with crossing routes. Iowa did find minimal success in the short middle passing game, so the tinkering will continue.  Also of concern was an apparent hamstring injury to Kwity Paye. When he left in the third quarter, he had already recorded 2.5 sacks.  

On the other side of the ball, the offensive staff is still searching for rhythm and consistency.  Michigan only managed 267 total yards and two first-half scores. Shea Patterson went 14-26 for 147 yards while rushing 7 times for 25 yards.  The only Michigan touchdown came from Zach Charbonnet in the first quarter. Charbonnet was the leading rusher on the day with 42 yards. Michigan accumulated 120 yards total rushing.  Going forward, Josh Gattis still needs to identify the core plays that he can script to get the passing game into rhythm. It was encouraging to see the QB read option and arc play return to the arsenal.  

This game was important to show that this team can play a tough physical game and hold up.  After getting decimated by Wisconsin, the Wolverines welcomed senior Mike Dwumfour back to the defensive line for today.  Also, it appears that Cam McGrone may be a budding star in the middle of the defense. When the dust settled, Michigan won because they were able to avoid making big mistakes.  Iowa was saddled with penalties and turnovers, especially in the second half.

Finally, it will be absolutely critical to correct the kicking game. Both kickers missed field goal attempts.  We saw more poor punts than good ones from Will Hart. Also, this team and program still need to prove they can come up with a good performance on the road. Jim Harbaugh has a big challenge in front of him to get all three phases working smoothly away from the Big House for the next two weeks.  Onward!

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By the Numbers: Week 6 vs. Iowa

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines trounced Rutgers and kicked off the search to replace Chris Ash as head coach in Piscataway.

NEXT UP: vs. Iowa: 20th, 17.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 4.0, Michigan Win Probability 59%
Michigan finds themselves seven spots in front of the Hawkeyes in overall SP+ rankings.  However the margin has come down from 11.6 in the preseason to 4.0 in week six.

Michigan Offense (48th) vs. Iowa Defense (22nd)
The key question we need to see answered is whether or not Michigan will be able to run the ball successfully against a solid defense. Iowa has yet to give up 100 yards on the ground through their first four games. The only Power 5 opponent, Iowa State, did manage 4.8 yards per rush. That gives me reason for optimism that the Wolverines offensive line will have a fine day. I’ll be keeping an eye on the Shea Patterson’s role in the run game. It would be a major addition to the #SpeedInSpace concept to make the Hawkeye defense account for the QB as a run threat. Michigan may still be wary of Shea taking additional hits after he finally looked healthy and comfortable last week versus Rutgers. If he is not utilizing the QB rushing the ball on the read option, then Josh Gattis will likely be more focused on keeping Patterson clean in the pocket, or rolling out to ensure he can see his reads clearly downfield.

Michigan Defense (6th) vs. Iowa Offense (30th)
The fear for most Michigan fans is that Iowa will download the Wisconsin offensive road map to gash the Wolverines’ defense. I expect to see a much better performance against the Hawkeyes for a couple reasons. First, the depth at defensive tackle will be greatly improved with Michael Dwumfour available to start. Giving Don Brown the personnel option to put Dwumfour next to Carlo Kemp inside, and allow Kwity Paye and Aiden Hutchinson to stay on the ends is a major improvement over what we saw in Madison. Second, I was encouraged by the week-over-week improvement of Cam McGrone. The defensive game plan against the Badgers expected senior Josh Ross in the middle. The plan with McGrone in the middle against Rutgers looked to better utilize his speed, without requiring him to read and think a great deal on the snap of the ball. I’ll be looking at how often McGrone is sent as a blitzer, requiring upperclassmen Jordan Glasgow Kaleke Hudson, and Josh Uche to read and react more often than McGrone.

PREDICTION: The Hawkeyes’ offense and Michigan’s defense have both moved up the SP+ rankings since preseason. This creates a fascinating strength vs. strength match up. Who can limit the big mistakes when Michigan’s offense takes the field vs. Iowa’s defense? I think both teams will be relatively conservative to eliminate game-changing mistakes. If the Offense vs. Defense phases of the game turn into a wash, then the difference will be special teams where Michigan is ranked 4th in SP+ and Iowa 13th. I expect at least one key big play to come from the return game to go along with a significant field position advantage for the Wolverines.
Michigan 30 Iowa 23 (same as PRESEASON)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/2/2019)

  • SP+ Overall: 13th (↑13), 18.5
    • SP+ Offense: 48th (↑24), 31.8
    • SP+ Defense: 6th (↑6), 13.8
  • AP Poll: 19th (↑1), 350
  • Coaches’ Poll: 18th (↑2), 417
  • CFP Rank: N/A