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Michigan 21 PSU 28 – Week 8 Recap

WEEK 8 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 21-28, Michigan loses by 7 to Penn State
SP+ Projection: Penn State by 8.2 (+1.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 1 (-8)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 8 RECAP @ Penn State

I’m going to keep it brief. Michigan is good enough to win these games on the road. Michigan played well enough to win this particular game in a white out vs. Penn State. However, Michigan still has not learned how to step up in big moments. I’m reminded of another gut wrenching moment that spurred Jim Harbaugh to declare “…this will put steel into our spine.” That is what is missing. Not effort, these kids played their guts out, and left everything in Happy Valley. But they need big time players to make big time plays in the biggest moments. With two Big Ten losses, it is time to re-calibrate the season goals. The Wolverines no longer control their own destiny in terms of a conference title. If the Michigan players and coaching staff can bounce back from this heart break, a rivalry win at night in the Big House might help make everyone feel a little better. That would show a spine truly made of steel.

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By the Numbers: Week 8 @ Penn State

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines put together a dominant performance @ Illinois, but turnovers and lack of energy on both sides of the ball in the third quarter still made fans very anxious.

NEXT UP: @ Penn State: 6th, 24.4

PREGAME SP+: Penn State by 8.2, Michigan Win Probability 32%
The Michigan-PSU series has swung wildly from year to year with the home team winning by an average of 34 points in the last three seasons.  Michigan won 28-16 @ PSU in Jim Harbaugh’s first season at Michigan. 

Michigan Offense (53rd) vs. Penn State Defense (10th) 
Various sports media outlets generate wide discussion around the “Most Tortured Fan Base” pretty regularly.  Fan negativity really garners attention and gets consumers talking. The volume and intensity of fans’ negativity really ramp up when results do not match the fans’ established expectations.  This phenomenon made it very hard to evaluate the 2018 defense after the OSU mess. It makes it very hard for fans to evaluate the 2019 Wolverines’ offense. We know there are flaws, but we expected much more fire power at this point in the season.  For me, I still maintain optimism that we will see late-season growth from the offensive unit. I don’t expect to see #SpeedInSpace throw a coming out party at night in a Happy Valley white out. However, I do believe they are capable of making critical explosive plays against a very good Nittany Lion defense.  The key will be maximizing their scoring opportunities because they likely will be few and far between.

Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. Penn State Offense (10th)
The Wolverines’ defense dismantled Penn State 49-10 in 2016.  The Nittany Lions adjusted and utilized new offensive wrinkles for Saquon Barkley in 2017 as they exploded for 42 points.   Last year Don Brown stayed awake late into the night to design his counter attack, and nearly shut out Penn State. For this season, the first central question will be: who has processed the available film and data into the better game plan?  The second question will be: which group of players will execute better and make plays in big moments? Michigan will crank up the blitz machine to ensure redshirt junior QB Sean Clifford is under pressure on every pass. PSU offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne knows this.  He will try to utilize plays that get slot WR KJ Hammler into the space voided by blitzers. Don Brown knows this, and he will change up coverages to anticipate where Clifford’s pressure release valve will be. In my mind, the victor of this chess match will determine the winner of the game. 

PREDICTION: Uncharacteristically poor special teams performance also contributes to the Wolverines’ overall performance.  In the SP+ rankings Michigan’s special teams unit has plummeted to #62, down 58 spots since the Rutgers game. Even the play of the game @ Illinois, a blocked punt by Jordan Glasgow, was counteracted by a 70 yard Illini punt to Michigan 1 yard line.  Statistics and history suggest the special teams performance will improve and push Michigan back up into the 30’s in SP+ special teams ranking. This week would be an absolutely perfect time for the third phase to show up big and put points onto the board.
Michigan 21 Penn State 20 (PRESEASON Michigan 31 Penn State 17)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/14/2019)

  • SP+ Overall: 13th (↑4), 18.8
    • SP+ Offense: 53rd (↑13), 30.3
    • SP+ Defense: 3rd (↓1), 11.5
    • SP+ Sp. Teams 62nd (↓25) 0.0
  • AP Poll: 16th (same), 648
  • Coaches’ Poll: 16th (same), 674
  • CFP Rank: N/A
Week 8 Resume
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Michigan Football vs Michigan State — Looking Back — 2007

The fifth installment of this year’s series looking back at the football rivalry between Michigan and Michigan State takes us back to 2007. Michigan entered the season with too much confidence that year, and it showed when the Wolverines lost to an up-and-coming Appalachian State squad that has proven to be the East Coast’s answer to Boise State. Still, Michigan rallied, and by the time the Michigan State game rolled around, the Wolverines felt like their old selves again.

However, Michigan State had a new coach, with an old philosophy. Mark Dantonio believed in the I-formation, and focused on using blocking to run the ball. With less than eight minutes to go, Michigan was trailing by 10, and senior quarterback Chad Henne was forced out with a knee injury, putting true freshman Ryan Mallett right in the middle of the storm. When Mallett was hit, he fumbled the ball, and senior tailback Mike Hart alertly picked it up and fought his way for a first down. Henne then re-entered the game and connected with Greg Matthews on a beautiful touchdown pass. With less than three minutes remaining, Henne threw a jump ball into the end zone that was caught by Mario Manningham for an amazing touchdown, and Michigan’s defense held, giving the Wolverines a 28-24 win.

Still, there was something ominous about the victory. Michigan State had gotten back to basics, with running back Jehuu Caulcrick repeatedly pounding the middle of the Michigan defense. Then Mike Hart made the infamous postgame comment in which he referred to Michigan State as “Little Brother.” That was all the ammunition that Dantonio needed, and he’s used it quite effectively to motivate the Spartans over the years.

This brings us to the current contest. How will this year’s game turn out? What direction will the two rivals take after the game? We’ll just have to watch and see.

Thanks to YouTube, ESPN, and YouTube poster WolverineHistorian for the videos below. As always, I own nothing, and I do not profit from this blog post in any way.