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By the Numbers: Game 10 @ Penn State

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan rolled in ho-hum fashion over the Indiana Hoosiers.  The Wolverines came out ahead in all of the Five Factors metrics as they collected a 29-7 victory.

NEXT UP: vs. Penn State: 11th, 17.5

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 1.8, Michigan Win Probability 54%
The Wolverines are traveling to Happy Valley in search of their first road victory over Penn State since Jim Harbaugh’s first season in Ann Arbor in 2015.  It is important to note that SP+ does not adjust for injuries.  Some key defenders are missing for PSU, and Michigan may be down a handful of offensive weapons too.

Michigan Offense (17th) vs. Penn State Defense (7th) 

One key injury in this matchup is on the NIttany Lion interior defensive line: PJ Mustipher.  Before Mustipher got hurt, Penn State held opposing rushing attacks to 3.0 yards per carry in 5 out of their first 6 games.  After the injury, Illinois ran for 5.3 yards per carry, and Ohio State ran for 5.1 per carry. 

This should be good news to Josh Gattis’ ears, although Blake Corum will be limited if he’s even available at all.  I am sure the broadcast narrative will highlight red zone efficiency, and Penn State is another great red zone defense.  Michigan may start looking for opportunities to strike from 25-35 yards away through the air.

Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Penn State Offense (47th)

On paper, Michigan’s defensive unit has the most lopsided advantage over the PSU offense.  This all starts and ends with the Penn State offensive line woes.  They are a mediocre pass protecting unit, and have been abysmal in the run game. 

Another handicap for the Nittany Lions is the health of senior QB Sean Clifford.  Clifford has played well even after being injured against Iowa.  However, James Franklin and his staff have seen what life looks like with Clifford on the bench, and they have since chosen to remove Clifford’s ability to run out the game plan for the most part. 

This matchup will be analogous to a heavyweight fight of big-play haymakers between Clifford & Jahan Dotson versus Aidan Hutchinson, David Ojabo, and Dax Hill.  We could be saying “he who laughs last, laughs loudest” during the post-game.

PREDICTION: Even way back in the preseason, I expected Michigan would have their issues pretty much worked out by November.  I predicted the Wolverines to snap their losing skid in Happy Valley back then, and neither team has done anything to make me think any differently now. 

I do think Penn State will play well, and this will be a tight game.  We could be looking at a second half reminiscent of the 2019 game.  The defense will strangle the Nittany Lion offense for long stretches, but Michigan cannot let Clifford and Dotson make the big plays in high leverage moments late in this game, a la 2019 KJ Hamler. 
Michigan 27 Penn State 21 (PRESEASON Michigan 20 Penn State 16)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/09/21), 8-1

  • SP+ Overall: 5th (same), 21.8
  • SP+ Offense: 17th (↑1), 36.1
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (same), 14.9
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑1), 0.6

AP Poll: 9th (same), 1,072

Coaches’ Poll: 8th (↓2), 1,099

CFP Rank: 6th (↑1)

U-M Resume after Game #9
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Nothing But ‘Net – Week #02 – 11/08/2021 – A Rare Road Exhibition

The (#6) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played one (exhibition) game this past week, and they won it.  On Friday (11/05/2021), they beat Wayne State 87-54.  The game was played in Wayne State’s brand new fieldhouse, as the inaugural game.  Since it was only an exhibition, Michigan’s record is still 0-0.

What Happened?

As I mentioned last week, it is rare for Michigan to play an exhibition game on the road, but this game was arranged as a courtesy to Wayne State so they could have a big-name opponent for the grand opening of their new fieldhouse, called, amazingly enough, Wayne State Fieldhouse.

The game itself was pretty much what you’d expect from a matchup between the defending Big Ten Champions and a Division II team.  After a brief choppy period in the first 3 minutes, Michigan went ahead for good, 7-6, at the 17:00 mark.  They didn’t pull very far ahead for the next 11 minutes, only leading by 8 (27-19) with 5:39 left in the half.  That’s when they broke the game open, going on a 21-0 run to put the game out of reach, 48-19.  WSU finally broke the UM scoring run with a basket with 16 seconds left in the half, to make it 48-21 at halftime.

WSU scored the first 4 points of the 2nd half, to get within 23 points (48-25) with 18:13 to go, but that was as close as they got.  Michigan pushed the lead as high as 37 points, and coasted to a 33-point win.

Stats

The game stats were predictably good.  Michigan shot well overall (31-for-59 = 52.5%), they shot 3-pointers well (9-for-21 = 42.9%), and they shot free throws decently (16-for-24 = 66.7%).  They won the rebounding battle handily (51-39), but they lost the turnover battle (17-13).  They won this game with good shooting, solid rebounding, and good defense (WSU shot 28.8%, 23-for-80).

Who Started?

The starters were Eli Brooks, Hunter Dickinson, Caleb Houstan, Brandon Johns, Jr., and DeVante’ Jones.

Who Looked Good?

Dickinson was tied for high scorer for Michigan, with 14 points, and he almost had a double-double, with 9 rebounds.  He only played 23 minutes, so he could have easily had several more points and rebounds.  With the game firmly in hand, Coach Howard rested him, and gave other players a chance to play.

Brooks had 12 points, going 4-for-4 from 3-point range.  Of course, he missed his 3 shots inside the arc, to finish 4-for-7.  He played mostly shooting guard, with a few minutes running the point.

Jones hit double figures, with 10 points on decent shooting (3-for-6 overall, 1-for-2 from 3-point range).  He did a nice job running the offense, with 7 assists, although he did have 4 turnovers.

Houstan also hit double figures, with 10 points.  He didn’t have a great night shooting (3-for-7 overall, 1-for-4 from 3-point range), but he did haul down 5 rebounds.

Johns almost hit double figures, with 8 points.

Moussa Diabate was the only sub to hit double figures, with 14 points, which tied him for high scorer for Michigan.  He was the first player to sub in, and he did a nice job, shooting 6-for-9 and collecting 5 rebounds.

Terrance Williams II almost hit double figures, with 8 points on decent shooting (3-for-5 overall, 1-for-3 from 3-point range).

Who Looked Not-So-Good?

Nobody looked not-so-good.

Who Else Played?

Kobe Bufkin played for 17 minutes, mostly at shooting guard, with a couple minutes at point guard.  He scored 3 points, shooting 1-for-4 overall, 1-for-3 from 3-point range.

Adrien Nuñez played for 13 minutes, and scored 3 points, shooting 1-for-3, all 3-pointers.

Brandon Wade played for 5 minutes, and scored 2 points, making his only shot attempt inside the arc and missing his only 3-point attempt.

Will Tschetter played for 5 minutes, and scored 2 points, making his only shot attempt.

Isaiah Barnes played for 6 minutes, and went 1-for-2 from the free throw line for 1 point.

Jace Howard played for 5 minutes, but didn’t attempt a shot.

Who Didn’t Play?

Ian Burns is on the scout team, so he’s a lower priority for minutes.

Frankie Collins is the only scholarship freshman who didn’t play.  He has a groin injury.

Jaron Faulds is on the scout team, so he’s a lower priority for minutes.

Zeb Jackson has an unspecified illness.

What Does It Mean?

What can we learn from an exhibition game against an overmatched opponent?  Not much.  It was nice to see the new players in an actual game, even if it was just an exhibition.  Coach Howard got to try some lineup combinations, but it was too early to see if he has anything interesting in mind.

What’s Next?

This week, Michigan plays two games.  On Wednesday (11/10/2021, 6:30 p.m., BTN) they play Buffalo in Crisler Arena, then on Saturday (11/13/2021, 8:00 p.m., BTN) they play Prairie View A&M in Washington, DC.

Buffalo was 16-9 last season, 12-5 in the MAC.  They didn’t have any impressive wins, and they lost in the 1st round of the NIT.  They don’t have any superstar players on their roster, but they do have decent height, with 6’10” and 6’11” centers.  This should be a decent test for Michigan, but one they can pass if they stay focused.

Prairie View A&M was 16-5 last season, 13-0 in the SWAC.  They didn’t have any impressive wins, and they lost in their conference tournament, so they didn’t go on to postseason play.  They don’t have any superstar players, and they don’t have much height.  This is a game Michigan should win handily.

So, why is Michigan playing Prairie View A&M in Washington, DC?  This game is part of a project called “Coaches vs. Racism”, which will match up Big 10 schools against HBCU (Historically Black Colleges and Universities) in basketball.  The first game in the series is this one between Michigan and Prairie View A&M.

Check back next week to find out what happened and why.

Go Blue!

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Michigan 29 Indiana 7 – Game 9 Recap

GAME 9 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 29-7, Michigan by 22 over Indiana
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 17.9 (+4.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 22 (✅)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 9 RECAP vs. Indiana

That was a clean sweep on the Five Factors for Michigan. Those games usually result in a ho-hum response from the media and from fans. However, that is exactly what this team needed. They played to their strengths, tried to answer a few questions from previous weeks, and rolled to a 3-score victory.

Offensively, Hassan Haskins stepped forward to carry this team once again. Haskins had 168 yards on 27 carries, both career highs. H2 was without his normal running mate, as Blake Corum only played a handful of snaps before retreating to the locker room for further evaluation of an injury.

Also, Cade McNamara showed that he is still the right QB to lead this unit. He completed 10-of-18 passes for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns. Josh Gattis clearly wanted to return to a balanced approach with his run game and passing attack. The play calls were 50/50, and yardage was almost equal as well.

The Michigan defense was back to being dominant for large swaths of this game. Outside of one drive where Indiana QB Donaven McCulley broke tackles and scrambled for big plays, the Wolverines really suffocated the Hoosiers. Indiana finished with just 195 total net yards for the whole game. While the defense bottled up the IU rushing attack (average 0.036 Expected Points Added per play), the Wolverines really attacked Indiana when they dropped back to pass. The Hoosiers’ pass plays averaged a negative EPA on the day, -0.129.

Jake Moody led the special teams unit, and cashed in another 3 field goals today. While his kickoffs were high and short, Indiana wanted no part of testing the coverage units. The return game was particularly impacted by injuries in this one. AJ Henning and Andrel Anthony both were dinged up in addition to Corum. DJ Turner filled in as the next man up returning punts. Onward to Happy Valley!

2021-09-UM-29-Indiana-7-Final-StatsDownload