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Michigan 42 Iowa 3 – 2021 Big Ten Championship Game Recap

GAME 13 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 42-3, Michigan by 39 over Iowa
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 11.1 (+27.9)
CD Projection: Michigan by 18 (+21)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 13 RECAP vs. Iowa (Big Ten Championship)

Football is an emotional sport. It’s very difficult to play the game well without wearing all your passion on your sleeve. However, you have to harness that emotional power. Players have to use their emotion as fuel.

Coaching football is a very interesting high wire act. You have to inspire your players to bring the maximum emotional energy, but you yourself have to try to stay balanced. You have to be a model of how to wield that control over your emotions. Coaches love to preach about not getting too high, or too low. Peaks and valleys ideally have very little space between them, in a coach’s eyes.

Being a fan is almost the inverse of all that. It is pure unbridled emotion all the time. It’s constant emotional escalation, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The valleys get excavated to greater depths. The mountains are stacked upon to push the peaks higher into the stratosphere.

I try to be much closer to objective than most fans. It helps me modulate my own emotion to dive into the numbers immediately. In the press box, I don’t know how well I could contain myself if I wasn’t plunking away on my keyboard recording the play data. That is why this recap is coming out the day AFTER the Big Ten Championship game. Last night, I couldn’t focus on the numbers. I was up in the clouds with the rest of the Wolverines. Sorry, not sorry.

Offensively, Michigan was near perfectly balanced. With garbage time removed, the play calls were 50/50 run to pass. Michigan amassed 461 total yards: 250 yards passing (54%) and 211 yards rushing (46%).

Hassan Haskins carried most of the workload with 17 carries, but it was the Zoom half of the #BoomAndZoom combo that set the pace. Blake Corum kicked off the scoring with a 67 yard touchdown run in the first quarter.

Donovan Edwards followed that up on the next offensive snap on the ensuing drive. Edwards caught a swing pass on the edge, and then uncorked a beautiful 46 yard spiral to Roman Wilson for a 75-yard touchdown.

Iowa showed a lot of guts by staying in the fight and battling through the entire 2nd quarter, and most of the 3rd. But eventually the dam broke and 21 points came like a tidal wave in the 4th quarter.

On defense, Michigan made the key plays when they had to. Aidan Hutchinson was relentless for the entire game, and earned Big Ten Championship Game MVP honors for his efforts: 1 sack and 7 QB pressures.

Josh Ross led the Wolverines with 9 tackles while Michigan absolutely strangled the Iowa rushing attack. The Hawkeyes could only muster an 18% Success Rate on run plays, with garbage time removed. They ended with 32 carries for 114 sack-adjusted yards, 3.5 yards per carry,

The special teams units put the cherry on top of the championship sundae. Brad Robbins flipped the field as Iowa was grasping for their last breath in the 3rd quarter. His 64-yard punt moved the ball from Michigan’s 13 yard line to the Iowa 23 yard line. The Hawkeyes never moved back into Michigan territory.

After that next Iowa possession, Jay Harbaugh unleashed another punt block. Cornelius Johnson, the Wolverines’ leading receiver of the season, blocked his 2nd punt of the year. A couple JJ McCarthy runs, a Cade McNamara dime, and a Haskins plunge finished off the sequence to provide a perfect microcosm of Michigan’s brand of complementary football.

Kudos to the Michigan Football program. The players have been a joy to watch. The coaches had to envision this path before it could be reality. Aidian Hutchinson spoke in the post game about the connection between Michigan’s 42 points and Oxford HS junior Tate Myre’s #42 jersey. “God works in mysterious ways,” said Hutchinson. I pray we can all pull together like this program has. They have been a true inspiration.

Hail! To the Victors: the 2021 Michigan Wolverines, the greatest Michigan football team of this generation.

2021-13-UM-42-Iowa-3-StatsDownload
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By the Numbers: Game 13 vs. Iowa (Big Ten Championship Game)

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines scaled the mountain, and didn’t even have to die trying.  While the Big House rocked on a snowy day, Michigan was physically dominant on offense and on defense as they pounded the Ohio State Buckeyes 42-27. 

NEXT UP: vs. Iowa: 21st, 13.7 

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 11.1, Michigan Win Probability 74%

I’ve mentioned it a few times this season, but it seems to be getting more and more true.  I think the Vegas bookmakers may have reverse-engineered the SP+ projections.  Currently, Michigan (-10.5) is projected to win by 11.1 by Connelly’s model.

Michigan Offense (22nd) vs. Iowa Defense (4th) 

Iowa’s defense is an open book.  They have run almost the exact same system for a decade.  The Hawkeye’s core philosophy is almost exactly what Michigan’s defensive approach was last week versus OSU.  They are going to stay true to their principles, keep WRs in front of them and tackle well.  Their best defensive player is LB Jack Campbell.  Campbell has racked up 121 tackles in 12 games.  Hassan Haskins versus Jack Campbell could be marketed individually as the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object.  Josh Gattis will likely tap into some of his creativity to find favorable matchups on the edges and underneath the Iowa coverage.  

Michigan Defense (7th) vs. Iowa Offense (92nd)

The Hawkeye’s offense is the lowest ranked unit Michigan has faced since Indiana.  They have two quarterbacks that have separate strengths, but neither has seized control of the offensive unit.  Of greatest concern for Iowa fans is they do NOT have their normal stable of NFL-bound offensive tackles.  The Hawkeyes’ are led by their All Conference center, Tyler Linderbaum.  They will need to find some running room inside, because they stand almost zero chance of slowing down Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo on passing downs.

PREDICTION: Kirk Ferentz and Jim Harbaugh have spoken glowingly about one another this week.  It’s pretty easy to see many similarities in their philosophies, and how they’ve built their respective programs.  For Michigan, the key will be eliminating self-inflicted wounds.  Taking care of the football, and making solid pre-snap decisions has been a strength of the Wolverines and their QB Cade McNamara.   Only 3 teams have scored more than 20 points against Mike MacDonald’s defense.  If the Wolverines avoid shooting themselves in the foot, I can’t see Iowa becoming the 4th.  
Michigan 31 Iowa 13

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/30/21, 11-1

  • SP+ Overall: 4th (same), 24.8
  • SP+ Offense: 17th (↑5), 37.1
  • SP+ Defense: 7th (same), 14.9
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (same), 2.6

AP Poll: 2nd (↑4), 1,449

Coaches’ Poll: 3rd (↑3), 1,408

CFP Rank: 2nd (↑3)

U-M Resume after Game #12
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2021 Michigan Football — Playbook — Flea Flicker — Hassan Haskins to Cade McNamara to Mike Sainristil

Let’s break down Michigan’s 3rd Quarter Flea Flicker versus Ohio State in their 42-27 victory.

Michigan has shown the flea flicker before this season and here is another variation.

PRE-SNAP

They line up strong right (tight end and twins) on the left hashmark #25 Hassan Haskins in the backfield to the right of Cade McNamara. #5 Mike Sainristil (the trailing twin to #14 Roman Wilson) goes in motion pre-snap.

Michigan is targeting #5 and #17 on the Ohio State defense.

POST SNAP

#25 Hassan Haskins takes the handoff, freezing the Ohio State secondary and then flips the ball back to Cade McNamara.

Check out the Michigan offensive line- #76 Ryan Hayes and #77 Trevor Keegan seal the middle while #68 Andrew Vastardis drops back to block the Ohio State defensive end. #65 Zak Zinter and #84 Joel Honigford take on Ohio defenders while #25 Hassan Haskins and #71 Andrew Steuber provide moral support.

Cade McNamara has all day to make the pass.

McNamara throws a pass Sainristil and Michigan executes another flea flicker play (3:37 of the below clip). #5 on the Ohio State mirrors Sainristil but gets turned around as he breaks downfield.

PLAY DIAGRAM — THE ACTION



McNamara slightly underthrows Sainristil or the play might have gone for a touchdown. But the impact on Ohio State can’t be overstated.

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Nothing But ‘Net – Week #05 – 11/29/2021 – A Pre-Thanksgiving Turkey

The (#20) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played one game this past week, and they won it.  On Wednesday (11/24/2021), they beat Tarleton State 65-54 in Crisler Arena.  The win raises Michigan’s record to 4-2.

What Happened?

The TSU game was held the night before Thanksgiving, and it was a turkey.  Michigan played down to the competition, and turned what should have been a blowout into a close, competitive game.  Michigan has a much bigger, more talented lineup, but they let TSU set the pace, and they played a sloppy, uneven game because of it.

The early going was sloppy, and the score was still tied (12-12) with 12:43 to go in the 1st half.  Michigan opened up a slim 2-4 point lead for the next few minutes, but only led by 1 point (21-20) at the 5:17 mark.  They closed the half out strong, with a 10-2 run, to lead by 9 points (31-22) at halftime.  TSU cut the lead to 7 points (31-24) to start the 2nd half, but Michigan quickly pushed the lead up into double digits, and led by 16 points (40-24) with 17:21 to go.  TSU chipped away at the lead, but UM still led by 11 points (52-41) at the 8:32 mark.  TSU went on an 8-0 run, to cut the lead to only 3 points (52-49) with 6:06 to go.  That was as close as they got, but they sure did give UM a scare.

Stats

The game stats are respectable.  Michigan shot pretty well overall (21-for-38 = 55.3%), they shot 3-pointers decently (6-for-18 = 33.3%), and they shot free throws well enough (17-for-22 = 77.3%).  They won the rebounding battle (37-21), but lost the turnover battle horribly (21-9).  The main reason this game was so close was all the UM turnovers.  Look at the overall shooting: only 38 shots in a 40-minute game.  They had so many empty trips down the floor where they never even got a shot off.  TSU sped them up, and they responded by throwing the ball away.

Who Started?

The starters were Eli Brooks, Hunter Dickinson, Caleb Houstan, Brandon Johns, Jr., and DeVante’ Jones.

Who Looked Good?

Brooks continues to be the most consistent player on the team.  He was the high scorer for Michigan, with 15 points.  Of course, he took 12 shots to get those 15 points (4-for-12 overall, 3-for-9 from 3-point range).  He also had 5 turnovers, against 3 assists.

Houstan finally contributed, with 14 points and 10 rebounds, for his first career double-double.  He shot a decent percentage: 4-for-7 overall, 2-for-5 from deep.

Dickinson almost had a double-double, with 9 points and 10 rebounds.  He should have had 20+ points against a much smaller TSU lineup, but UM had a terrible time getting the ball into him at the post.  He only took 6 shots.

Moussa Diabate was the star of the game, with 14 points and 7 rebounds off the bench.  He shot 6-for-7, with his only miss on his only 3-point attempt.

Frankie Collins played 15 minutes, and scored 6 points on 2-for-2 shooting, including 1-for-1 from 3-point range, and a free throw.  He did a nice job running the offense when he was in, with 4 assists against 1 turnover.

Who Looked Not-So-Good?

Jones had a miserable game, with 0 points (on 0 shots) and 5 turnovers against 1 assist.  He was worthless out there.

Johns had a weak game, with 5 points, but 3 turnovers.

Terrance Williams II played for 12 minutes, and scored 2 points, on free throws.

Who Else Played?

Adrien Nuñez played for 3 minutes, and missed his only shot attempt for 0 points.

Who Didn’t Play?

Isaiah Barnes, Kobe Bufkin, Zeb Jackson, Jace Howard, and Will Tschetter are the scholarship players who didn’t play.  Jackson has an unspecified illness.  I don’t know why the others didn’t get in.  I guess the game was too close.

Ian Burns, Jaron Faulds, and Brandon Wade are on the scout team, so they’re a lower priority for minutes.

What Does It Mean?

Michigan continues to look weak and uninspired.  Maybe it was because they took TSU too lightly.  Maybe it was because they were looking ahead to the Thanksgiving break.  Whatever the reason, they need to work out the problems and start playing sharp basketball.  They have the components on the team to do well, they just need to get the chemistry thing worked out.

At this point, I’d say that Michigan is “on the bubble” for making the NCAA Tournament.  The way they’ve been playing, they will be lucky to win even 10 games in the Big Ten.  That won’t get them in the Big Dance.

What’s Next?

This week, Michigan plays two games.  On Wednesday (12/01/2021, 9:15 p.m., ESPN) they play at North Carolina, then on Saturday (12/04/2021, 1:00 p.m., CBS) they play San Diego State in Crisler Arena.  The UNC game is part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.

North Carolina is currently 4-2, with no impressive wins, and losses to Purdue and Tennessee.  They have one noteworthy player (center Armando Bacot, Jr.), and some height (Bacot is 6’10”, and another guy is 6’11”), so Michigan’s big men will be busy again.  If this game were in Ann Arbor or at a neutral site, it would be a toss-up, but playing at UNC is tough.  Michigan will have to play their best game of the season so far to win this one.

San Diego State is currently 4-2, with wins over Arizona State and Georgetown, and losses to BYU and USC.  They were very good last season (23-5), and they look pretty good again this season.  For many years, they were coached by our old friend Steve Fisher, and now the head coach is Brian Dutcher, who was an assistant coach at UM for 10 seasons under Fisher.  SDSU doesn’t have any nationally known players, but they do have decent height (a pair of 6’10” guys).  This should be a very challenging non-conference game.

Check back next week to find out what happened and why.

Go Blue!