This is a very confusing time to be a Michigan sports fan. The football team just completed a perfect 12-0 regular season, including a tense 30-24 win over Ohio State, but they’re under a dark cloud due to “Signgate”. The men’s basketball team looked great in their first three games, and has looked helpless since then. Am I happy or sad? Both, I guess.
It’s hard to look at the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament as anything but a disaster. Yes, Michigan won one game, and sure, Memphis and Texas Tech looked good, but Michigan played very sloppy basketball in all three games, and they were lucky to win one of them.
Game Flow
The Memphis game started out OK, with a tie game (6-6) at the 15:16 mark, then with Memphis leading for the next 6 minutes, but never by more than 2-4 points. With 8:55 left in the 1st half, Memphis was up by one point, 20-19. That’s when UM went cold and allowed Memphis to end the half on a 17-6 run, to lead by 12 points (37-25) at halftime. UM made a few runs at the lead in the 2nd half, but Memphis always answered and kept the lead around 10-12 points. With 13:17 left in the game, Memphis was up by 12 points (48-36), when UM finally started clawing their way back into the game. They got the deficit down to 3 points (51-48) at the 8:41 mark, and one point (59-58) with 4:12 to go, but they couldn’t “get over the hump”. Memphis built the lead back up to 9 points (67-58) with 1:07 left, UM got back within 2 points (69-67) with 10 seconds left, but they couldn’t get any closer, losing by 4 points. It was discouraging, since UM played from behind for almost the whole game.
The Stanford game was hard to watch. UM led 2-0 early, and was only down one point (5-4) at the 18:07 mark. Then the wheels fell off. Michigan couldn’t buy a basket, and Stanford couldn’t miss, leading to a 18-5 run. With 12:40 left in the half, Stanford led by 14 points (23-9), and it looked like they were going to run away with the game. Fortunately, that’s when Michigan finally woke up, going on a 21-5 run of their own, to lead by 2 points (30-28) at the 6:31 mark. The lead went back and forth for the rest of the half, with UM up by one point (45-44) at halftime. Stanford started the 2nd half strong, but UM fought back, and the game was tied up (52-52) with 16:46 left. It was Michigan’s turn for a run, and they led by 13 points (67-54) with 12:24 to go. Stanford wasn’t done, going on their own run to tie it up (72-72) at the 4:43 mark. Michigan led the rest of the way, by as many as 8 points, and won by 5. The Stanford runs were scary to watch. Michigan was helpless to stop them. Fortunately, they had just enough firepower to pull off a few runs of their own.
The TTU game was close for the first 5 minutes, with TTU up by 2 points (8-6) at the 15:24 mark. That was the last time it was close. TTU pulled out to a 12-14 point lead for the rest of the half, leading by 14 points (35-21) at halftime. Things only got worse in the 2nd half, as TTU expanded their lead to as much as 23 points. Michigan got within 12 points a couple times early in the 2nd half, but TTU always answered the UM runs and got the lead back up near 20, coasting to a 16-point win. Michigan looked helpless out there.
Stats
The game stats for the Memphis game were confusing. Michigan shot poorly overall (24-for-61 = 39.3%), they shot 3-pointers decently (8-for-24 = 33.3%), and they shot free throws decently (11-for-17 = 64.7%). They outrebounded Memphis by an astounding 50-28, but they lost the turnover battle badly, 18-11. How did UM lose this game with such a huge rebounding edge? Mediocre shooting and too many turnovers.
The game stats for the Stanford game were pretty good. Michigan shot well overall (32-for-54 = 59.3%), they shot 3-pointers well (8-for-18 = 44.4%), and they shot free throws decently (11-for-16 = 68.8%). They won the rebounding battle (29-27), and tied in the turnover battle (13-13). They won this game with pretty good shooting and rebounding.
The game stats for the TTU game were miserable. Michigan shot poorly overall (22-for-54 = 40.7%), they shot 3-pointers miserably (6-for-20 = 30.0%), and they shot free throws terribly (7-for-14 = 50.0%). They were outrebounded badly (41-30), but they did win the turnover battle (8-9). They lost this game with miserable shooting and poor rebounding.
Nkamhoua was the leading scorer for Michigan in 2 of the 3 games (Memphis, with 18 points, and TTU with 16 points). He also had double figures (16 points) in the Stanford game. He shot pretty well, and he had lots of rebounds.
McDaniel was the leading scorer in the only game that Nkamhoua wasn’t: Stanford, with 20 points. He had 13 vs. Memphis, and 12 vs. TTU. He didn’t shoot particularly well, especially from 3-point range, but he had a nice number of assists and rebounds.
Williams had 2 good games (17 points vs. Stanford and 10 points vs. TTU) and a horrible game vs. Memphis (2 points on 0-for-5 shooting). He shot well in the Stanford game (5-for-8 overall, 4-for-5 from deep), but not quite as well vs. TTU (4-for-8 overall, 1-for-5 from deep). He even grabbed a few rebounds in each game.
Burnett also had 2 good games (16 points vs. Memphis and 10 points vs. Stanford) and one horrible game (2 points vs. TTU on 1-for-10 shooting overall, 0-for-4 from deep). He had lots of rebounds, a few assists, and not too many turnovers.
Reed also had 2 good games (8 points vs. Memphis and 11 points vs. Stanford) and one miserable game (4 points, all free throws, vs. TTU). He had 12 rebounds vs. Memphis, and a total of 8 blocked shots during the tournament.
Tray Jackson had 2 decent games (7 points vs. Memphis and 5 points vs. TTU) an one miserable game (2 points vs. Stanford). He shot fairly well, and grabbed a few rebounds.
Will Tschetter chipped in 3, 7, and 5 points, and grabbed a few rebounds.
Who Looked Not-So-Good?
George Washington III played in all 3 games, and failed to score. He took one shot each in the Memphis and TTU games, but not in the Stanford game. He is not contributing much so far.
Who Else Played?
Youssef Khayat played in the TTU game, and scored 3 points, shooting 1-for-2 from 3-point range.
Jace Howard and Jaelin Llewellyn are injured, and not playing yet. They are both expected back “later in the season”.
What Does It Mean?
After a hot start (3-0), Michigan has settled down to where I expected them to be. They appear to have a decent amount of talent, but the chemistry sure isn’t there. They are also very thin at center and shooting guard. Based on their performance so far, I’m thinking my prediction of 11-20 still looks pretty good. They will win less than half of their “toss up” games, lose a few of their “should win” games, and lose most of their “should lose” games, with an occasional upset to keep things interesting.
What’s Next?
This week, Michigan only plays one game. On Saturday (12/02/2023, 3:30 p.m., FS1), they play at Oregon.
Oregon is currently 4-2, with a win over Georgia and a loss to Santa Clara. They don’t have any noteworthy players, but they do have some height: a 6’10” player, a 6’11” player, and a 7-footer. This is a game that Michigan probably won’t win, especially if they continue playing the way they’ve been playing for the last 4 games. If they can get their swagger back, maybe they can pull off the road upset.
Oh yeah, just so you aren’t surprised when you watch the game on Saturday, here’s what Oregon’s court looks like:
Pretty distracting, no?
Check back next week to find out what happened and why.
After playing very well in their first three games, fans were starting to raise their expectations about this season’s team. Long Beach State? Another blowout win! Wrong. Back to Earth. While this team might still exceed initial expectations, they are not going to blowout every opponent on the way to an undefeated season and a National Championship.
First, the delightful St. John’s game. This was Michigan’s toughest test to date in the young season, and they passed it with flying colors. It was a fun game to watch on TV, since the announcers were so excited about the Return Of Rick Pitino. Michigan ran SJU out of the gym. The game started out as a see-saw battle, with the lead going back and forth. With 7:14 to go in the 1st half, it was all tied up, 28-28. SJU went ahead, 31-29, at the 6:28 mark, and that was the last time they led. Michigan ended the half with a 19-7 run, to lead 48-38 at halftime. The 2nd half was all Michigan, as they pushed the lead up as high as 26 points, before the Scout Team let SJU sneak back to within 16 points at the end.
Speaking of 16 points, that was the high water mark for Michigan in the ill-fated LBSU game. Michigan started strong, and built up a 16 point lead (23-7) with 13:16 to go in the 1st half. It looked like LBSU was going to fold and UM was going to get another blowout win, but the Beach didn’t give up. Michigan still led by 12 points (32-20) at the 8:56 mark, and 10 points (34-24) with 7:38 to go. That’s when UM stopped playing defense, and LBSU went on a 24-16 run to end the half. That cut Michigan’s lead to 2 points (50-48) at halftime. The 2nd half was a disaster. The lead went back and forth, with LBSU ahead for most of the half. Still, UM kept battling, and they actually got a small lead (80-76) with 4:28 left in the game. LBSU outscored them 18-6 down the stretch, to win by 8. It was frustrating.
Stats
The game stats for the SJU game were pretty good. Michigan shot well overall (32-for-62 = 51.6%), they shot 3-pointers well (11-for-26 = 42.3%), and they shot free throws decently (14-for-23 = 60.9%). They lost the rebounding battle (39-47) and the turnover battle (13-11). They won this game with good shooting and defense. The biggest negative was that SJU grabbed 27 offensive rebounds, for 33 second-chance points.
The game stats for the LBSU game were mediocre. Michigan shot decently overall (31-for-66 = 47.0%), they shot 3-pointers poorly (9-for-28 = 32.1%), and they shot free throws decently (15-for-25 = 60.0%). They won the rebounding battle (38-30), but lost the turnover battle (16-12). They lost this game with poor 3-point shooting and too many turnovers.
McDaniel was the star this week, with 26 (a new career high) and 20 points. He was the leading scorer in the SJU game, and 2nd leading scorer vs. LBSU. He also had 7 and 6 assists. Unfortunately, he had 6 turnovers vs. LBSU, several of them at key moments in the closing minutes of the game.
Nkamhoua had a decent game vs. SJU (9 points) and was the leading scorer vs. LBSU (22 points). He also had 7 and 11 rebounds, giving him another double-double vs. LBSU.
Williams was the only other player to hit double figures in both games, with 12 and 10 points. He wasn’t very efficient: 5-for-12 overall (2-for-6 from deep) vs. SJU, and 2-for-8 overall (2-for-7 from deep) vs. LBSU. His poor shooting vs. LBSU really cost Michigan in that game.
Burnett had a career game vs. SJU (21 points) and a mediocre game vs. LBSU (5 points). He scored all 21 of his points in the 1st half of the SJU game, shooting 8-for-8 overall, 4-for-4 from deep. Unfortunately, he shot 0-for-5 overall (0-for-3 from deep) in the 2nd half of the SJU game, and 2-for-9 overall (1-for-7 from deep) vs. LBSU, for a combined 2-for-14 overall (1-for-10 from deep) since that 1st half outburst. His poor shooting vs. LBSU really cost Michigan in that game.
Reed had a quiet week, with 5 and 8 points. He was the leading rebounder in the SJU game with 11, and he had 4 more rebounds vs. LBSU.
Will Tschetter had one good game (10 points vs. SJU) and one quiet game (4 points vs. LBSU).
Tray Jackson had one very good game (17 points vs. LBSU) and one quiet game (4 points vs. SJU).
Who Looked Not-So-Good?
George Washington III played in both games (5 and 4 minutes), and failed to score. He took one shot, in the SJU game.
Who Else Played?
Harrison Hochberg played for 1 minute in the SJU game, and didn’t attempt a shot.
Youssef Khayat played in the SJU game, and scored 2 points.
Jackson Selvala played for 1 minute in the SJU game, and didn’t attempt a shot.
Cooper Smith played for 1 minute in the SJU game, and didn’t attempt a shot.
Jace Howard and Jaelin Llewellyn are injured, and not playing yet. They are both expected back “later in the season”.
What Does It Mean?
It wasn’t surprising that Michigan went 1-1 last week, but it would have made more sense for them to lose their first road game against a team coached by Rick Pitino and beat Long Beach State in Crisler. Wrong. Oh well. We knew they weren’t going to win them all, but I think most people expected them to beat LBSU. This just shows that this is a team that hasn’t been playing together for very long, and that they’ve got some work to do. They could still have a better season than predicted, but they’ve got to avoid those upsets.
What’s Next?
This week, Michigan plays three games, all in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in Paradise Island, Bahamas. On Wednesday (11/22/2023, 5:00 p.m., ESPN2) they play Memphis, on Thursday (11/23/2023, 5:00/7:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPNU) they play (#14) Arkansas/Stanford, then on Friday (11/24/2023, TBA, TBA) they play one of the teams from the other half of the bracket ([#20] North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Texas Tech, or [#21] Villanova). The full bracket is here.
Memphis is currently 3-0, with a win over Missouri. They were 26-9 (13-5 in the AAC) last season, with some decent wins. They won the AAC conference tournament, then lost in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament to Florida Atlantic. They don’t have any noteworthy players, and they’ve only got one tall player, a 6’11” redshirt senior. This game is a toss-up. If Michigan plays like they did in their first three games, they’ll stand a good chance against Memphis. If they play like they did in the 2nd half vs. LBSU, not so much.
The way the tournament bracket is set up, it is crucial to win the first game. That gets you into the winner’s bracket, where the worst you can do is 4th place. Lose on the first day, and you drop into the loser’s bracket, where 5th place is the best you can do. When Michigan played in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in November 2019, they won a hard-fought game against Iowa State in the 1st round, then upset (#6) North Carolina and (#8) Gonzaga to win it all. I went to that tournament, and it was a great time. I hope UM can play that well again.
Check back next week to find out what happened and why.
Normally, most high-major teams schedule real “cupcakes” for their first few home games, to kind of “ease into” the season. Not Michigan, not this season. Both UNCA and YSU are good, solid opponents with impressive records last season, and strong returning lineups. Michigan made them both look like traditional “cupcakes”, but they’re both a notch up from that. Michigan just played very well in both games, and got the blowout wins they deserved. It’s an important psychological advantage to win your exhibition games (ahem: Tennessee 89, MSU 88) and your first home game (ahem, again: James Madison 79, MSU 76), and Michigan took care of business. Of course, if you shoot 1-for-20 from 3-point range, you could lose to a mid-major team in your home opener. Just sayin’…
The UNCA game started with a UM turnover and 2 made free throws for UNCA. That was the only time UM trailed the whole game. Michigan made a 3-pointer to go up 3-2, and they never looked back. They got the lead up to 9 points (15-6) with 14:54 to go in the 1st half, then 15 points (31-16) at the 9:05 mark. They got the 1st half lead as high as 21 points (48-27) with 2:18 left in the half, but let UNCA score the last 5 points of the half, for a 16-point lead (48-32) at halftime. Michigan put the game out of reach in the first 5 minutes of the 2nd half with a 19-8 run to make it a 27-point lead (67-40) with 15:02 to go. The rest of the game, Michigan kept the lead between 20 and 29 points, even with the Scout Team in the game for the last 3 minutes. It was a dominating performance against a good opponent.
The YSU game was all Michigan for the whole game. UM led 4-0, YSU got within 2 points (4-2), then Michigan pulled away for good. They led by 8 points (18-10) with 14:13 to go in the 1st half, then 11 points (26-15) with 9:39 left. They led by 10 points (33-23) with 3:57 to go in the half, then they went on a 13-0 run to end the half up 46-23. Just a little basketball pro-tip: it’s not good to be doubled up at halftime. Michigan came out in the 2nd half and kept doubling (or more) YSU’s score: 50-25, 59-28, 65-30, 74-36, 76-38, and 81-40. Once the lead got over 40 points, Michigan emptied the bench, and YSU made the score look a little more respectable, losing by “only” 30 points. It was another dominating performance against another good opponent.
Stats
The game stats for the UNCA game were predictably good. Michigan shot well overall (38-for-67 = 56.7%), they shot 3-pointers well (12-for-26 = 46.2%), and they shot free throws decently (11-for-15 = 73.3%). They won the rebounding battle (39-30) and the turnover battle (9-13). They won this game with good shooting and rebounding.
The game stats for the YSU game were good, but not as good as the UNCA stats. Michigan shot well overall (35-for-66 = 53.0%), they shot 3-pointers fairly well (9-for-26 = 34.6%), and they shot free throws very well (13-for-16 = 81.3%). They won the rebounding battle (41-31) and the turnover battle (11-13). They won this game with continued good shooting and rebounding.
Nkamhoua was the leading scorer in the UNCA game, with 25 points, and the second leading scorer in the YSU game, with 17 points. He was also Michigan’s leading rebounder in both games, with 7 and 10 rebounds, which gave him a nice double-double in the YSU game. He shot very well: 11-for-16 (1-for-4 from deep) vs. UNCA, and 7-for-7 (1-for-1 from deep) vs. YSU. He also played very good defense. He was the best player on the floor for both games.
McDaniel was the second leading scorer in the UNCA game, with 22 points, and the third leading scorer in the YSU game, with 16 points. He had 8 assists vs. UNCA and 4 assists vs. YSU. He looked very poised and confident out there.
Will Tschetter was the star of the YSU game, with 20 points off the bench. He was the leading scorer, and he did it with style: 8-for-8 shooting, including 4-for-4 from deep. He had a very interesting stat line: 20 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists. All he did was shoot, and shoot well. 20 points is a new career high for him, breaking his old career high of 8 points that he set in the UNCA game. He also shot well in that game: 3-for-5 overall, 2-for-2 from deep. Just for reference, he only scored 63 points in 27 games last season.
Williams had two very good games, which is very encouraging. He scored 15 points vs. UNCA and 13 points vs. YSU. He shot well in both games: 5-for-8 overall (3-for-5 from deep) vs. UNCA, and 4-for-8 (2-for-4 from deep) vs. YSU. He even chipped in 6 and 8 rebounds.
Burnett had one good game (13 points vs. UNCA) and one lousy game (0 points vs. YSU). As the starting shooting guard, Michigan needs consistent scoring from him.
Reed was very consistent, with 9 points in each game. He still hasn’t played much (20 minutes vs. UNCA, 19 minutes vs. YSU); I don’t know if he’s recovering from illness or injury.
Who Looked Not-So-Good?
Tray Jackson played in both games, and scored 3 and 6 points. He showed flashes of solid play, then he just drifted around the rest of the time.
Youssef Khayat played in both games, scoring 2 and 4 points. He also got another technical foul, in the YSU game. He’s a little bit of a “loose cannon” out there.
George Washington III finally scored his first career points in the YSU game (5 points, on 2-for-4 shooting, 1-for-2 from deep) after going scoreless in his debut against UNCA. Once again, he’s a freshman, he’ll get better.
Who Else Played?
Ian Burns played for 2 minutes vs. UNCA and 7 minutes vs. YSU. He scored his first career points in the YSU game, hitting both of his free throw attempts.
Harrison Hochberg played for 2 minutes vs. UNCA and 3 minutes vs. YSU. He didn’t shoot in the UNCA game, and missed his only free throw attempt in the YSU game.
Jackson Selvala played for 2 minutes vs. UNCA and 7 minutes vs. YSU. He missed his only shot attempt vs. UNCA, and didn’t shoot vs. YSU.
Cooper Smith played for 3 minutes in each game, and scored 2 points vs. UNCA. He was 1-for-1 vs. UNCA, and 0-for-1 vs. YSU.
Who Didn’t Play?
Everyone who wasn’t injured played at least 2 minutes in each game. The injured players are: Jace Howard and Jaelin Llewellyn.
What Does It Mean?
Could Michigan be better than the “experts” predicted? It’s a little early to say, but based on how they played against two quality opponents, maybe? We’ll know more after their next game. See below.
What’s Next?
This week, Michigan plays two games. On Monday (11/13/2023, 6:30 p.m., FS1) they play St. John’s in Madison Square Garden in New York City, then on Friday (11/17/2023, 7:00 p.m., BTN+) they play Long Beach State in Crisler Arena. The St. John’s game is part of the Gavitt Tip-Off Games, which is the annual Big East/Big Ten challenge. This is the last season for the Gavitt Games.
St. John’s was 18-15 last season, 7-13 in the Big East. They beat (#6) UConn and (#20) Providence, lost in the 2nd round of the Big East tournament, and didn’t play in a post-season tournament. They don’t have any noteworthy players, and they don’t have much height: just one 6’11” player. They do have a noteworthy coach: Rick Pitino. That alone makes them dangerous. This will be an important test for Michigan. They’ve looked good at home against mid-major teams, but now they’ll be playing on the road against a team from a big conference. Sure, it’s technically a “neutral site” game, but it’s a lot like a home game for St. John’s.
Long Beach State was 17-16 last season, 11-9 in the Big West. They didn’t beat anyone notable, lost in the 1st round of the Big West tournament, and didn’t play in a post-season tournament. They don’t have any noteworthy players, but they do have a little height: two 6’10” players, and a 6’11” player. This is a game that Michigan should win, as long as they don’t do anything crazy.
Check back next week to find out what happened and why.
The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played one (exhibition) game this past week, and they won it. On Friday (11/03/2023), they beat Northwood 92-45 in Crisler Arena. Since it was only an exhibition, Michigan’s record is still 0-0.
What Happened?
The game itself was pretty much what you’d expect from a matchup between a Big Ten team and a bad Division II team. Michigan opened a quick 17-4 lead, and slowly built on it throughout the 1st half. The lead got as high as 33 points (54-21) with 0:50 to go, and was 31 points (54-23) at halftime.
The 2nd half was more of the same. Michigan started the 2nd half on fire, with a 21-2 run to make it 75-25 at the 13:51 mark. They got the lead as high as 55 points (82-27) with 11:49 to go, and kept it around 50 points for the rest of the game. Coach Martelli (filling in for Coach Howard, who is recovering from heart surgery) emptied the bench with 7:36 left in the game, and Michigan leading by 51 points (87-36). That slowed down the UM offense enough to finish the game with only 5 more points, against 9 points for Northwood.
Stats
The game stats were predictably good. Michigan shot well overall (36-for-68 = 52.9%), they shot 3-pointers well (12-for-27 = 44.4%), and they shot free throws decently (8-for-11 = 72.7%). They won the rebounding battle (49-38) and the turnover battle (10-13). They won this game with good shooting and rebounding.
McDaniel was the leading scorer among the starters, with 16 points in 20 minutes. He shot pretty well (6-for-9 overall, 3-for-5 from deep), and he ran the offense just fine.
Tray Jackson was the star of the game, with 20 points off the bench. He shot well (8-for-10 overall, 3-for-4 from deep), and he didn’t have any turnovers. If he can keep that up, he’ll be starting soon.
Reed did a great job out there. He scored 13 points and grabbed 10 rebounds (5 offensive), for a nice double-double. He shot very well (5-for-6), and he did it all in only 11 minutes.
Nkamhoua was the only other starter in double figures, with 11 points. He played center for most of the 2nd half (until the Scout Team went in), and he did very well. He had 8 rebounds and 3 blocked shots. He also had 6 assists. He shot well (5-for-7), including 1-for-3 from deep.
Burnett almost hit double figures, with 9 points on very good shooting: 3-for-4 overall, 3-for-3 from deep. He also had 6 assists.
Williams had a decent game, with 7 points and 5 rebounds. He shot fairly well (3-for-6 overall, 0-for-2 from deep), and he didn’t have any turnovers.
Who Looked Not-So-Good?
Will Tschetter played for 22 minutes and scored 7 points. He shot pretty poorly (2-for-9 overall, 1-for-3 from deep), but he was the leading rebounder, with 13 boards.
George Washington III played a lot (25 minutes), shot a lot (12 shots), but didn’t score a lot (7 points). He shot 3-for-12 overall, 1-for-3 from deep. He’s a freshman, and he’s a good shooter, so he’ll have plenty of better games.
Who Else Played?
Ian Burns played for 5 minutes, and failed to score, going 0-for-2, both 3-pointers. He’s on the Scout Team, so this isn’t unusual.
Harrison Hochberg was the only player from the Scout Team who scored. He played for 5 minutes, and made his only shot, for 2 points.
Cooper Smith played for 8 minutes, and failed to score, going 0-for-2, both 3-pointers. He’s on the Scout Team, so this isn’t unusual.
Jackson Selvala played for 8 minutes, and didn’t attempt a shot. He’s on the Scout Team, so this isn’t unusual.
What can we learn from an exhibition game against an overmatched opponent? Not much. It was nice to see the new players in an actual game, even if it was just an exhibition. Michigan got to try some unusual lineup combinations, but we won’t see those in “real” games.
What’s Next?
This week, Michigan plays two games. On Tuesday (11/07/2023, 8:30 p.m., BTN) they play UNC-Asheville, then on Friday (11/10/2023, 6:30 p.m., BTN) they play Youngstown State. Both games are in Crisler Arena.
UNC-Asheville was 27-8 last season, 16-2 in the Big South. They didn’t have any impressive wins, but they won the Big South conference tournament, which got them into the NCAA Tournament. They lost in the 1st round to UCLA. They don’t have any superstar players on their roster, and they don’t have much height: one 6’11” player. This should be a decent test for Michigan, but one they can pass only if they stay focused.
Youngstown State was 24-10 last season, 15-5 in the Horizon League. They didn’t have any impressive wins, and they lost in the 2nd round of their conference tournament, so they played in the NIT. They lost in the 1st round of the NIT. They don’t have any noteworthy players on their roster, but they do have some height: a 7-footer and a 7’3” player. This is a game that Michigan should win, but with a couple 7-footers, YSU could make it interesting.
Check back next week to find out what happened and why.
Yeah, it’s time for college basketball again. Sure, it’s another exciting season for the football team, but basketball games start this week. Let’s check out this season’s team.
Here’s my traditional standard description of this weekly column:
Yeah, it’s time for University of Michigan men’s basketball, and this is the place to read all about it: “Nothing But ‘Net” on UMGoBlue.com. Check back every Monday morning between now and the end of the season for a quick, concise wrap-up of the previous week, and a look ahead at the upcoming week, all in one easy-to-read article.
As always here at UMGoBlue.com, the perspective is “by fans, for fans”. I’m a fan (since 1974), and I go to all the home games, and watch/listen to all the away games. I don’t have any special access (other than being an usher in Sections 209-210), I don’t go to the press conferences, and I don’t interview high school recruits. I see the same things you do, and write about them as a fan.
Once again, it was a very busy off-season, with lots of surprises and changes. Let’s get to it.
Executive Summary
The big question: how good is Michigan going to be this season?
The big answer: not very good, but it’s hard to predict. There have been a lot of changes, and the era of the Transfer Portal and NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) money makes things really unpredictable.
What’s New?
The biggest news in the offseason was when Coach Howard had successful heart surgery on 09/15/2023. From the press release:
The scheduled operation was performed by Dr. Himanshu Patel, who successfully resected an aortic aneurysm and repaired Howard’s aortic valve. Patel indicated that Howard is expected to fully recover in six to 12 weeks and could return to the program in four to six weeks.
U-M’s associate head coach Phil Martelli will serve as the interim head coach during Howard’s recovery process. Saddi Washington and Howard Eisley will maintain their assistant roles, while Jay Smith will be elevated to the third assistant during the interim period.
The most recent update to his condition says “no timetable for his return”. I expect him back on the bench by the beginning of December.
There are lots of changes to the roster from last season:
Players Leaving:
1 senior graduated
3 players transferred
2 players left for the NBA Draft
Players Arriving:
1 incoming freshman
3 incoming transfer players
1 new Scout Team player
Graduating Seniors
Michigan didn’t really have any seniors on last season’s team. They did have 2 graduate transfers, and they were considered to have “graduated” at the end of last season. One of them (Jaelin Llewellyn) got injured 8 games into the season, applied for a medical redshirt, and was granted it, so now he’s back again as a graduate transfer. The other graduate transfer from last season (Joey Baker) also applied for a waiver, then decided that he was done playing basketball and retired. He was very uneven during his one season in Ann Arbor, but he will still be missed.
Players Who Transferred
Three players transferred to other schools after last season. They are:
Isaiah Barnes – In his only season at Michigan, Isaiah played in 15 games, and scored 16 points. He looked pretty good when he was out there, but he had trouble getting in the game. I wasn’t surprised when he announced that he was entering the transfer portal. He transferred to Tulsa. He might be missed.
Gregg Glenn III – In his only season at Michigan, Gregg didn’t play much (4 games, 11 minutes), and he didn’t score much (6 points). He didn’t look very comfortable out there in his limited action. He transferred to Tulane. He probably won’t be missed.
Hunter Dickinson – This was the biggest surprise of the offseason. Hunter played at Michigan for 3 years, and he was the most valuable player all 3 years. He was the heart and soul of this program, but he decided that he wanted to play on a team that stood a good chance at a national championship, and Michigan wasn’t going to be that team this season. He transferred to Kansas, where he will be an integral part of their team, and stand a good chance of winning a national championship. He will definitely be missed.
Players Who Left For The NBA Draft
Two players left the team to enter the NBA Draft. They are:
Kobe Bufkin – Kobe was probably the 2nd most valuable player on last season’s team as a sophomore, after a relatively quiet freshman season. He was certainly the most improved player on last season’s team. He was drafted by the Atlanta Hawks in the 1st round (15th overall). He will be missed.
Jett Howard – Jett was another rare “one and done” for Michigan. He had a good freshman season, but not great. The funny thing is, Michigan seemed to play better when he was on the sidelines injured. It must have been a chemistry thing. He was drafted by the Orlando Magic in the 1st round (11th overall). He will be missed.
Incoming Freshmen
Last year, Michigan had the #13 recruiting class in the nation. This year, the recruiting class is miserable. There is only one incoming freshman player this season:
George Washington III #40 (6’2”, 170 pounds, G) – George is a 4-star shooting guard, the #23 shooting guard in his class. According to reports, he’s a good shooter, including from 3-point range, and a good defender. He will be a key player on this season’s team.
Two other freshmen were committed to Michigan at one point, but they aren’t coming, maybe:
Lee Aaliya is a 6’9” forward/center from Argentina. He announced his commitment to Michigan back in late August, but he’s not enrolled at Michigan and he’s not on the official roster. The latest update I found says that his paperwork is very complicated, and there’s still a chance that he could join the team for the winter semester.
Papa Kante is a 6’10” forward/center from Senegal, by way of Connecticut. He committed to Michigan last winter, but didn’t have the grades and/or English language skills to get admitted, so he’s going elsewhere (Pittsburgh). He would have really helped.
Incoming Transfer Players
Let’s see: the three best players from last season’s team left (two to the NBA, the other to the transfer portal), and the recruiting class is almost nonexistent. What should Coach Howard do? To the transfer portal! There are three transfer players on this season’s team:
Nimari Burnett #4 (6’4”, 200 pounds, G) – Nimari transferred to Michigan from Alabama (2 seasons, one of them a medical redshirt), with a stop at Texas Tech (1 season) before that. He’s a graduate transfer, but by my count he has 3 seasons of eligibility left (2 regular and 1 COVID). He’s a combo guard, but he hasn’t been much of a scorer so far. His main contributions will probably be on the defensive end and as a backup point guard.
Tray Jackson #2 (6’10”, 215 pounds, F) – Tray transferred to Michigan from Seton Hall (3 seasons), with a stop at Missouri (1 season). He has one season of eligibility left. He’s a true power forward, rumored to have a decent shot. We’ll see.
Olivier Nkamhoua #13 (6’9”, 235 pounds, F) – Olivier transferred to Michigan from Tennessee (4 seasons). He has one season of eligibility left. He’s another true power forward, and he could probably play some center. He’s a good scorer, but not much of an outside threat.
New Scout Team Players
There’s only one new player on the Scout Team:
Harrison Hochberg #31 (6’7”, 225 pounds, F) – Harrison is a freshman “preferred walk-on”. Looking at his bio, he was quite the player in high school. He should be a valuable member of the Scout Team, and he might even get to play a couple minutes in blowout games.
Who’s Coming Back?
Once again, Michigan is a young team this season, with a lot of new faces. However, there is a solid core of returning players.
Let’s look at the returning players on the team:
Sophomore Eligibility
Youssef Khayat #24 (6’9”, 215 pounds, F) – Youssef played in 9 games last season, and scored 12 points. He looked a little lost out there at times, but he got better as the season went on.
Dug McDaniel #0 (5’11”, 175 pounds, G) – Dug took over as the starting point guard as a true freshman last season when Jaelin Llewellyn went down with a knee injury in game #8. He was a little “raw” at times, but he definitely grew into the job as the season went on.
Tarris Reed, Jr. #32 (6’10”, 265 pounds, F) – Tarris was a capable backup at center behind Hunter Dickinson last season, but he has suddenly been forced into the starting job with Hunter’s defection to Kansas. He’s a talented player, and he works hard out there, but he’s a definite step down from Dickinson. Center has been a position of dominance for Michigan for the last 3 seasons, but I expect it to be a liability this season.
Jackson Selvala #34 (6’7”, 230 pounds, F) – Jackson was a team manager who walked on as a player last season. He’s in grad school now, but he still has 3 years of eligibility left. He’s a valuable member of the Scout Team, and he might even get to play a couple minutes in blowout games. He played in 4 games last season, but didn’t score.
Cooper Smith #45 (6’1”, 180 pounds, G) – Cooper transferred to Michigan from Kalamazoo College last season. He’s a preferred walk-on. He’s a valuable member of the Scout Team, and he might even get to play a couple minutes in blowout games. He played in 4 games last season, but didn’t score.
Will Tschetter #42 (6’8”, 245 pounds, F) – Will was voluntarily redshirted his freshman season, and played a lot last season. He had a couple decent games, and too many mediocre games. He’s a nice guy, really likable, but he hasn’t produced on the court yet.
Junior Eligibility
Ian Burns #14 (6’6”, 205 pounds, G) – Ian is on the Scout Team. He played in 2 games as a freshman and 3 games as a sophomore. He has attempted one shot each season, but hasn’t made one yet.
Jace Howard #25 (6’8”, 225 pounds, G) – Jace has played for 3 seasons, but thanks to the COVID-19 rule he has junior eligibility. He’s played a lot, but he hasn’t scored much. He was often brought in for defensive purposes, and he contributed to a mean full-court press. I expect him to contribute even more this season.
Senior Eligibility
Jaelin Llewellyn #3 (6’2”, 190 pounds, G) – Last season, Jaelin transferred to Michigan from Princeton. He was the main point guard last season, until he injured his knee in the Kentucky game in early December.
Terrance Williams II #5 (6’7”, 225 pounds, F) – Terrance is a real enigma. When he’s “on”, he’s a force out there, but when he’s “off”, he’s a disaster. I’m still trying to forgive him for single-handedly losing the Vanderbilt game in the NIT last season.
Starting Lineup/Depth Chart
This is really tricky this season, with all the new players. My guess:
Point guard: McDaniel (backups: Llewellyn and Burnett)
Shooting guard: Washington III (backups: Llewellyn and Burnett)
Small forward: Williams II (backups: Howard, Tschetter, and Khayat)
Power forward: Nkamhoua (backups: Jackson, and Khayat)
Center: Reed (backups: Nkamhoua and Jackson)
Wow, there are a lot of thin spots here: an unproven freshman shooting guard, slim pickings at small forward, and no real backup for an undersized center. I don’t see anyone on the roster who can consistently score from outside, and I don’t see anyone on the roster who will scare any opponents. I’m also wondering where the on-court leadership will come from. McDaniel? Williams II?
Predictions
Here are my predictions for player stats for the upcoming season (last season’s leader in parentheses, all Hunter Dickinson):
Scoring: No one will score > 500 points. (629)
Points per game: No one will average > 15. (18.5)
Overall shooting percentage (minimum 100 attempts): No one will shoot > 50%. (56.0)
3-point shooting percentage (minimum 50 attempts): No one will shoot > 35%. (42.1)
Rebounding: No one will grab > 200 rebounds. (307)
Last Season
From last season’s Wrap-Up article:
Michigan started the season ranked #22 in the preseason AP poll, and big things were expected of them. Certainly, they were expected to contend for the Big Ten title and make it to the NCAA Tournament. That’s not how things worked out.
There were 31 regular season games and 3 post-season games, but one game ruined the whole season: the Central Michigan game in Crisler Arena on 12/29/2022. Michigan played like they expected to win by just showing up, and by the time they realized that they could actually lose to a lower-division MAC team in their own arena, it was too late. They lost 63-61, and the season was in tatters. It really didn’t matter much how many quality wins they got the rest of the season, that one horrible loss kept them out of the NCAA Tournament.
The theme for that game, and the rest of the season, was “keep the game close, and lose in the last 2 minutes”. Michigan lost to the following 13 teams by 6 points or less, or in overtime:
They could have won every one of those games, but they managed to lose them all, often in creative new ways. They often had double-digit leads late in the game. It was heartbreaking.
On the positive side, Michigan did have 9 impressive wins:
Most of those wins were against teams that eventually made the NCAA Tournament, and several of them were by impressive margins (Pitt, Maryland, Northwestern, and MSU).
The remaining 12 games were a mixed bag of blowout losses (3) and unimpressive wins over lesser opponents (9):
03/09/2023 (Loss) – Neutral site vs. Rutgers: 62-50 (Big Ten Tournament)
All of these losses were away from Crisler, and two of the three were to NCAA Tournament teams (Arizona State and Penn State).
Looking at the complete season, the real story was the CMU loss and all the close losses in the last 2 minutes. That’s where the season went down the drain.
This Season
Let’s look at Michigan’s schedule for this season:
The 11/13/2023 game vs. St. John’s is being played at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
Michigan won the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas the last time they were in it (2019). They will have a tough time repeating that feat.
The Jumpman Invitational game vs. Florida in Charlotte, NC, is going to be challenging. Sure, the game is technically at a neutral site, but Charlotte is much closer to Florida than Ann Arbor.
As last season’s disaster vs. Central Michigan showed, there is no such thing as a “guarantee” non-conference game any more for Michigan.
Check out the day/time for the home Ohio State game of 01/15/2024: noon on a Monday. Who is going to be there?
Each Big Ten team plays 6 teams once (3 home/3 away) and 7 teams twice, for a total of 20 games. This season, Michigan plays:
Once: Indiana (home), Minnesota (home), Penn State (neutral), Maryland (away), Wisconsin (home), Northwestern (away).
Normally, I like to divide the games up into 3 categories (“Should Win”, “Should Lose”, and “Toss Up”), but after last season’s collapse, and with all the roster changes, I have no idea any more. Looking at the schedule, I can only see 4 games that look pretty winnable, and more than a dozen that look pretty hopeless. I’m expecting Michigan to finish well below 0.500 overall and in the Big Ten, say 11-20 overall (6-14 in Big Ten). I think the ceiling for this team is 16-15 (10-10 in Big Ten).
This Week
This week, Michigan only plays one game. On Friday (11/03/2023, 7:00 p.m., B1G+) they play Northwood in Ann Arbor, in their only exhibition game.
Northwood was 2-26 (2-18 in the G-MAC) last season. They are a Division II team, and they lost badly to the only Division I school they played last season. They don’t have any noteworthy players, but they do have a little height: a 6’10” guy. This should be a relatively easy exhibition game.
Check back next week to find out what happened and why.
