UMGOBLUE.COM Michigan Wolverine Football & Basketball
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Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer discuss Michigan’s 44-10 domination of the Spartans and the upcoming game versus Indiana.
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LAST WEEK RECAP
A totally satisfying 44-10 pounding of the MSU Spartans highlighted the different trajectories of the two programs.
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 2.4, Michigan Win Probability 55%
In an interesting coincidence, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model produced the same prediction (28-25 Michigan) that I came up with in my Season Preview in August. Another comparison for the Indiana game is Week 9 vs. Notre Dame. The Irish also ranked 20th overall in SP+, with the 13th Offense, and the 35th Defense.
Michigan Offense (34th) vs. Indiana Defense (34th)
Michigan comes off perhaps their most impressive offensive outing. The Wolverines have improved 38 spots, up from 72nd after the loss to Wisconsin. In three road games after Wisconsin, Michigan averages a 45% success rate and 5.9 yards per play. In 2018, the Wolverines managed a 47% success rate and 6.7 yards per play. This contest with Indiana presents the final regular season road challenge for Josh Gattis and the offense. Based on the matching SP+ rankings for Michigan’s offense and Indiana’s defense, Saturday’s matchup will likely come down to who can execute more cleanly. If the Wolverines can avoid major mistakes, especially turnovers, I expect them to move the ball and score consistently.
Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Indiana Offense (13th)
In last year’s 31-20 victory, the Michigan defense generated significant angst among the fan base. Even worse, the Hoosiers’ success versus man coverage can be pointed to as a blueprint for the Buckeyes 62-point domination the following week. We know these events triggered Don Brown’s 2019 evolution, making the test against Indiana particularly interesting. After dealing with the cost of significant change early in the season, the Wolverines’ defense is back into the top 5 nationally, including 5th in SP+. The 2019 game shifts to Bloomington and opposing offensive units have had some success in road games since Wisconsin. The Wolverines allowed a 35% success rate and 4.3 yards per play at Illinois, at Penn State, and at Maryland. Also, because of the game waiting in Week 14, the prep for this game may be a delicate balance between executing vs. the Hoosiers without tipping your hand to the Buckeyes again.
PREDICTION: I made a big deal out of the 2018 trend in home versus road performance. Michigan was +7.9 to the SP+ projections at home, and -7.1 on the road. That 15 point swing was particularly startling for me. So far In 2019 the Wolverines are +7.2 at home, and a much more reasonable +0.8 on the road. I think Michigan will continue to show their growth on the road and will improve that +0.8 number.
Michigan 31 Indiana 17 (PRESEASON Michigan 28 Indiana 25)
Final Score: 44-10, Michigan by 34 over Michigan State
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 12.7 (+21.3)
CD Projection: Michigan by 17 (+17)
That game had a little bit of everything, but it ended with a Maize & Blue avalanche. After Michigan State scored early to take a 7-0 lead in the first quarter, Michigan roared back 44-3. This year’s Spartan team is not up the Mark Dantonio standard of this decade. However, I am sure that doesn’t make Jim Harbaugh’s third victory over MSU any less sweet.
Michigan’s offense was led by a career day for Shea Patterson. The senior quarterback was 24 of 33 for 384 yards and 4 touchdown passes. Today also marked the first game in 2019 that Michigan passed more than it ran in a victory. Josh Gattis called 55% pass plays in a 34-point blowout. This could signal another major step forward for #SpeedInSpace in the final two games. Offensively, 7.4 yards per play is their best mark of the season, and the 51% success rate is third best.
On defense, the narrative held pretty much as predicted. Michigan State had a solid game plan and back of tricks coming out of the gate. However, once they had shown Don Brown all that was hidden, MSU could not get much moving. The Spartans averaged 5.2 yards per play in the first quarter as they took their 7-0 lead. In the third quarter they accumulated almost as much yardage as the first (74 total yards), but needed 19 plays to do it. In the fourth quarter, Michigan State could only muster 28 yards on 13 plays (2.2 yards per play). Perhaps the most encouraging signal sent by the defense came from the bone-jarring hit Khaleke Hudson put on an MSU wide receiver on a crossing route. That signal was sent directly to Indiana and Ohio State, who decimated the Wolverines’ coverage with similar routes last year.
Whatever did not go well in the first bye week (before the Wisconsin game) definitely got corrected for the second bye week. Jim Harbaugh and his staff had Michigan executing as well as we’ve seen in 2019. This crescendo in November is a welcome sight. In his first four seasons, finishing each season on a low note has been a legitimate criticism of Harbaugh. Now the challenge is to give the proper respect and preparation for a very good Indiana team. Preparing for a road trap game will fall directly on Harbaugh and his staff. For now, enjoy the State Championship. It’s GREAT…to BE…a Michigan WOLVERINE!
Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer discuss Michigan’s upcoming game versus Michigan State.
Support the Podcast, Get Gear -> shrsl.com/12ybi
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LAST WEEK RECAP
During the Week 11 Bye, we looked at 2018 & 2019 through 9 games, and we kept an eye on what to expect in the final 3 games.
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 12.7, Michigan Win Probability 77%
Bill Connelly’s metric system is now dialed in with eleven weeks worth of data. With that said, the SP+ spread has moved in Michigan’s direction by only 1.2 points, with a small 2-point bump in Win Probability.
Michigan Offense (43rd) vs. Michigan State Defense (11th)
Michigan’s offense has not been quite as good as expected, but the Spartan defense hasn’t either. When I have watched Michigan State games in 2019, it feels an awful lot like watching the Wolverines in 2017. This defense is good, but they just cannot maintain a high level of play for a full 60 minutes. A lot of that is because the offense does not give them breaks in time of possession or field position. But, the Michigan State defense is also prone to making mistakes that turn into explosive plays. Offensively, Michigan has shown that they can be effective against top defenses. The Wolverines have played three top 10 SP+ defenses (Wisconsin, Iowa, & Penn State), plus Notre Dame is 23rd. The key will be whether Josh Gattis’ group comes out of the bye week sharp enough to exploit the inevitable MSU mistakes for big plays.
Michigan Defense (4th) vs. Michigan State Offense (84th)
The match up between Michigan’s defense and MSU’s offense will determine whether this game remains tight, or gets out of hand. The Spartans will definitely want to turn this game into a rock fight by grinding out first downs and playing the field position game. As Don Brown has transitioned to multiple fronts, and mixed in more zone coverage, Michigan has allowed some yardage but has tightened up on scoring opportunities. In this game, MSU would gladly march between the 20 yard lines and milk the clock. The Wolverines must turn the rivalry game energy and emotion into a laser focus on run fits during standard downs. Once they’ve forced Michigan State into passing downs, Michigan will be looking to create havoc.
PREDICTION: As bad as the Spartan offense has been, SP+ thinks their special teams are worse. They are currently ranked 108th nationally. This doesn’t bode well for the field position rock fight strategy that I expect from Mark Dantonio. I was happy to hear Jim Harbaugh using “High Alert” as the program mantra this week. This season was reduced to a one-game season in October. Potentially winning this game is the last shred of opportunity remaining the Spartans. Dantonio will have them playing at their highest level, but that won’t be good enough. #LeaveNoDoubt
Michigan 24 Michigan State 7 (PRESEASON Michigan 17 MSU 13)
