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Michigan 39 Indiana 14 – Week 13 Recap

WEEK 13 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 39-14, Michigan by 25 over Indiana
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 2.4 (+22.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 14 (+11)

FIVE FACTORS

Week 13 Five Factors box score @ Indiana

WEEK 13 RECAP @ Indiana

Jim Harbaugh and his Wolverines maintained focus through the week.  Many folks had this game circled on the schedule because it was: 1) on the road 2) against an Indiana team who gives Michigan trouble annually and 3) squeezed in between two rivalry games versus Michigan State and Ohio State.  Kudos to the coaching staff for keeping the players on task. The players really executed at a high level in varying weather conditions on the road against the Hoosiers.

Finally, Nico Collins had his day.  The junior wide receiver hauled in 6 passes for 165 yards and 3 touchdowns.  When the ball went in Collins’ direction and he didn’t catch it, there was likely a pass interference call on the defender.  He is a dominant weapon for Josh Gattis, and it seems like everyone has finally discovered that fact. Shea Patterson followed up his first 300+ yard passing game with a second one a week later.  Patterson had 366 yards and 5 touchdowns to Collins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Ronnie Bell. Michigan’s 7.8 yards per play is their most explosive mark of 2019, and the most since Week 2 of 2018 vs. WMU.   

The Indiana Hoosiers have continually given Michigan problems, and their 2018 game plan was the kindling for Ohio State’s bonfire in The Game last season.  The 2019 game in Bloomington started in the same mold with Indiana scoring touchdowns on 2 of their first 3 drives. Then, the defensive staff made their adjustments and forced 5 consecutive punts and forced a fumble over the next 6 drives.  During garbage time, the Hoosiers were able to eclipse 300 total yards, and also managed 4.8 yards per play on the day. There may be a few issues to work out in the defensive film room this week, but it feels like there are plenty of tricks left in Don Brown’s bag for the Buckeyes next week.

Ohio State clinched the Big Ten East with their 28-17 victory over Penn State in Columbus earlier today.  On Tuesday night, the Bucks may be consensus #1 in the country in the AP poll, the Coaches’ poll, and the College Football Playoff rankings.  Ryan Day will lead OSU to Indianapolis to compete for a Big Ten title regardless of what happens in Ann Arbor. Jim Harbaugh has led an impressive bounce back after an awful start to the Big Ten season.  In terms of Big Ten titles, this team’s slow building improvement is too little too late. However, in terms of 2019 season success and Harbaugh era legacy, the Wolverines have everything to play for. The 2019 version of The Game will come down to which team’s players will rise to the occasion and show they want it more.  Big time players make the critical plays in the biggest games. #BeatOhio


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By the Numbers: Week 13 @ Indiana

LAST WEEK RECAP

A totally satisfying 44-10 pounding of the MSU Spartans highlighted the different trajectories of the two programs.

NEXT UP: @Indiana: 20th, 17.5

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 2.4, Michigan Win Probability 55%
In an interesting coincidence, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model produced the same prediction (28-25 Michigan) that I came up with in my Season Preview in August.  Another comparison for the Indiana game is Week 9 vs. Notre Dame.  The Irish also ranked 20th overall in SP+, with the 13th Offense, and the 35th Defense.

SP+ Picks are made weekly via Twitter by ESPN’s Bill Connelly

Michigan Offense (34th) vs. Indiana Defense (34th) 
Michigan comes off perhaps their most impressive offensive outing.  The Wolverines have improved 38 spots, up from 72nd after the loss to Wisconsin.  In three road games after Wisconsin, Michigan averages a 45% success rate and 5.9 yards per play.  In 2018, the Wolverines managed a 47% success rate and 6.7 yards per play. This contest with Indiana presents the final regular season road challenge for Josh Gattis and the offense.  Based on the matching SP+ rankings for Michigan’s offense and Indiana’s defense, Saturday’s matchup will likely come down to who can execute more cleanly. If the Wolverines can avoid major mistakes, especially turnovers, I expect them to move the ball and score consistently.

Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Indiana Offense (13th)
In last year’s 31-20 victory, the Michigan defense generated significant angst among the fan base.  Even worse, the Hoosiers’ success versus man coverage can be pointed to as a blueprint for the Buckeyes 62-point domination the following week.  We know these events triggered Don Brown’s 2019 evolution, making the test against Indiana particularly interesting. After dealing with the cost of significant change early in the season, the Wolverines’ defense is back into the top 5 nationally, including 5th in SP+.  The 2019 game shifts to Bloomington and opposing offensive units have had some success in road games since Wisconsin. The Wolverines allowed a 35% success rate and 4.3 yards per play at Illinois, at Penn State, and at Maryland. Also, because of the game waiting in Week 14, the prep for this game may be a delicate balance between executing vs. the Hoosiers without tipping your hand to the Buckeyes again.

PREDICTION: I made a big deal out of the 2018 trend in home versus road performance.  Michigan was +7.9 to the SP+ projections at home, and -7.1 on the road. That 15 point swing was particularly startling for me.  So far In 2019 the Wolverines are +7.2 at home, and a much more reasonable +0.8 on the road. I think Michigan will continue to show their growth on the road and will improve that +0.8 number.
Michigan 31 Indiana 17  (PRESEASON Michigan 28 Indiana 25)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/19/2019), 8-2

  • SP+ Overall: 10th (↑5), 22.4
    • SP+ Offense:34th (↑9), 33.8
    • SP+ Defense: 5th (↓1), 12.0
    • SP+ Special Teams 49th (↑21) 0.5
  • CFP Rank: 13th (↑2) 
  • AP Poll: 12th (↑2), 829
  • Coaches’ Poll: 12th (↑2), 851
Week 13 Resume
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Nothing But ‘Net – Week #04 – 11/18/2019 – Two Solid Wins

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games this week, and they won both of them.  On Tuesday (11/12/2019), they beat Creighton 79-69, then on Friday (11/15/2019), they beat Elon 70-50.  Both games were in Crisler Arena.  Michigan’s record is now 3-0.

The Creighton game was part of the Gavitt Tipoff Games, which are essentially the Big East/Big Ten Challenge.  For the second year in a row, the Big Ten won the challenge, 5-3.

The Elon game was associated with the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament that Michigan is playing in over the Thanksgiving break.  Elon is in what they call the “Mainland Bracket”, which means that they play one game “on the mainland” (as opposed to the Bahamas, where the “Championship Bracket” is played) against one of the “Championship Bracket” teams, in this case Michigan, and then they play 2 other teams in the “Mainland Bracket” at home.

What Happened?

Unlike the season opener against Appalachian State, Michigan played well for 40 minutes against two opponents this week.  They didn’t have a miserable scoring drought like they suffered in the App State game.

The Creighton game was close for the whole 1st half, with Michigan holding an 8-point lead (31-23) with 6:50 left in the half, and Creighton holding a 3-point lead (41-38) at halftime.  The game was still close with 12:27 left and UM only leading by 4 points (56-52).  Over the next 3 minutes, Michigan went on an 8-3 run to push the lead up to 9 points (64-55), and they managed to keep the lead between 5-12 points the rest of the way, winning by 10.

The Elon game was also close for most of the 1st half, with Michigan up by only 4 points (26-22) with 2:42 left in the half.  UM closed the half on a 5-0 run to push the lead up to 9 points (31-22) at halftime.  The lead was still only 8 points (34-26) with 18:45 left, when Michigan went on an 11-2 run to push the lead up to 17 points (45-28) with 15:19 left.  Elon never got closer than 11 points the rest of the way, with Michigan winning by 20.

Stats

In the Creighton game, Michigan shot very well overall (30-for-53 = 56.6%), they shot 3-pointers pretty well (9-for-23 = 39.1%), and they shot free throws very well (10-for-12 = 83.3%).  They lost the rebounding battle badly (27-38) and the turnover battle as well (11-8).  Not only did UM lose the rebounding battle, they gave up 18 offensive rebounds.  Wow.  That’s an amazing stat for a winning team.

In the Elon game, Michigan shot fairly well overall (28-for58 = 48.3%), they shot 3-pointers fairly well (7-for-23 = 30.4%), and they shot free throws decently (7-for-10 = 70.0%).  They won the rebounding battle (38-31), but lost the turnover battle (10-7).

Who Started?

In both games, the starters were Eli Brooks, Isaiah Livers, Adrien Nuñez, Zavier Simpson, and Jon Teske.

Who Looked Good?

Teske had two nice, solid games, with 17 points vs. Creighton and 16 points vs. Elon.  He also had 7 rebounds in each game.

Simpson also hit double figures in both games, with 17 and 11 points.  He had 9 assists vs. Creighton and 7 vs. Elon.

Livers only hit double figures in one game, with a team-high 22 points vs. Creighton.  He came close in the Elon game, with 9 points.

Brooks also hit double figures in one game (10 points vs. Elon) and came close in the other game (7 points vs. Creighton).

The only other player with a double figures game this week was David DeJulius, with 10 points (and 8 rebounds) vs. Elon.  He came close to double figures in the other game, with 9 points vs. Creighton.  He’s starting to be a force coming off the bench.

Nuñez had 3 and 5 points, including a 3-pointer in each game.

Brandon Johns, Jr. had 2 and 5 points, and looked OK out there.

Colin Castleton had 2 points in each game.  He looked pretty comfortable out there.

Who Looked Not-So-Good?

No one had a bad game.

Who Else Played?

The Creighton game was too close to play any of the non-mainstream players, but the Elon game was well enough in hand that C.J. Baird and Cole Bajema got in for the last minute.  Baird hit a 2-point basket.

Who Didn’t Play?

Franz Wagner still has a broken wrist, and didn’t suit up.  He’s out until at least early December.

Austin Davis was the only “regular” player who didn’t get in.

Baird played, but the rest of the practice squad (Jaron Faulds, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) didn’t get in.

What Does It Mean?

We can’t learn much from the Elon game, but Creighton is a decent opponent, and Michigan handled them pretty well.  The really encouraging part was the mental aspect: the Michigan players didn’t panic when Creighton went ahead for a while, they just kept playing the game the way they’re supposed to.  They’re learning, and getting better.

What’s Next?

This week, Michigan only plays one game, in Crisler Arena.  On Friday (11/22/2019, 7:00 p.m., BTN-Plus), they play Houston Baptist.  Houston Baptist was 12-18 last season, and they don’t look to be much better this season.  They don’t have much height (one guy at 6’9” and another at 6’10”), and they’ve got a pretty young team.  Michigan should handle them pretty easily.

Come on down to Crisler to check out this season’s team, and stop by Sections 209-210 to say hi.

Go Blue!