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By the Numbers: Game 3 vs. Northern Illinois

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LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan steamrolled a Washington team who was searching for answers.  The Wolverines rolled up 343 rushing yards on the way to a 31-10 victory that had a vintage Harbaugh feel.

NEXT UP: vs. NIU: 108th, -10.4

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 35.9, Michigan Win Probability 95%

The SP+ model continues to love what Michigan is doing.  The Wolverines again moved up in the SP+ rankings to 6th overall.  NIU has been pretty static in the rankings, but they are a rollercoaster on the field.   The Huskies upset #66 Georgia Tech in Week 1, then lost at home to #88 Wyoming.

Michigan Offense (13th) vs. NIU Defense (97th) 

We used our recap podcast to discuss the worry emanating from Michigan fans about the pass offense after the Washington game.  I warned folks there, and I’ll warn everyone again here: the Wolverines might hand the ball off 40-50 times again in this game.  I do agree it would be nice for Michigan to get game speed reps for Cade McNamara to read the Huskies’ defense and work on his anticipation & improving the timing of his delivery.  It would also be great to see J.J. McCarthy and Donovan Edwards inserted into the game with the starters as early as possible, just as they were as the WMU game reached a 26-point lead.  However, these are nice-to-haves.  It is irrational to melt down if we see another ground & pound blowout over a MAC school.    

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. NIU Offense (108th)

There is one very clear difference between Mike MacDonald and his predecessor Don Brown that we don’t hear enough about.  MacDonald and the defensive staff clearly believe in the value of game experience for younger players down the depth chart.  I did a small double take when I saw both Junior Colson and Rod Moore on the field during the 1st Quarter of the Washington game with a 3-0 score.  We should really see a lot of unfamiliar faces in this one.  I do believe SP+ is underrating the NIU offense a little bit after they put up 395 total yards, including 191 yards on the ground, versus Wyoming last week.  Still, anything but utter domination and the bench emptying will be a disappointment.

PREDICTION: This is a ripe opportunity for an underwhelming hangover performance coming off last week’s Maize Out night game victory.  We are hearing the right coach speak about “…not falling in love with our stuff,” from Jim Harbaugh.  The players have reiterated “…we haven’t done anything yet,” when they are in front of the media.  We’ll see if the captains and other player leaders can actually turn those clichés into focus and enthusiasm right away, or if there is a sleepy start to this game.  One potential smelling salt for the Wolverines: the NIU quarterback is Rocky Lombardi.  He has some very valuable and recent experience catching Michigan asleep in the Big House.
Michigan 45 NIU 13 (PRESEASON Michigan 45 NIU 17)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/12/21), 2-0

  • SP+ Overall: 6th (↑1), 22.1
  • SP+ Offense: 13th (↑1), 37.3
  • SP+ Defense: 9th (↑1), 15.5
  • SP+ Special Teams: 5th (↑6), 0.2

AP Poll: 25th (NR), 163

Coaches’ Poll: 25th (NR), 180

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #2
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Michigan 31 Washington 10 – Game 2 Recap

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GAME 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 31-10, Michigan by 21 over Washington
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 9 (+12)
CD Projection: Michigan by 6 (+15)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 2 RECAP vs. Washington

For the second week in a row, Michigan outperformed my expectations, and SP+ projections, this time by dismantling the Huskies in front of an energetic Big House crowd. The Wolverines looked sharp as they executed the game plans on both sides of the ball. Even though this matchup lost some shine nationally after Washington’s Week 1 loss to FCS Montana, the team and the fan base still created another electric atmosphere Under the Lights in Ann Arbor. It was a vintage Jim Harbaugh era performance that featured run game flexing on offense, and a physical swarming defense.

Offensively, the Wolverines’ rushing attack pounded Washington mercilessly by calling run plays 78% of the game. Those play calls yielded 343 rushing yards, a 51% success rate, and an average EPA of 0.467. Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum split the work load relatively evenly again. The complementary nature of Haskins’ power (5.7 yards/carry) and Corum’s speed (3 TDs including a 67-yarder) earned a nickname in our house that I loved as soon as I heard it: we’ll be referring to the RB duo as Boom & Zoom.

Michigan’s defense also imposed their will in this game, led by captain Aiden Hutchinson. Hutchinson and his squad created consistent pressure on the QB. By the time Washington was able to find any holes in zone coverage, Michigan was up two scores. In fact, the Wolverines extended Washington’s offensive drought nearly to the end of the 3rd quarter when the Huskies were able to get a field goal. Their 4th quarter touchdown drive happened while Michigan led by 21, making it effectively garbage time. This Washington offense is not the best on the schedule by any stretch. But, through two weeks, I would say Mike MacDonald’s defensive install is ahead of schedule.

The special teams unit was a strength again, also. Jim Harbaugh’s fake punt call in the 2nd quarter not only paid off for a 1st down conversion, but Blake Corum scampered 67 yards for a touchdown on the very next snap. Jake Moody converted his career long field goal of 52 yards to open the scoring. Only one kickoff was returned, and former Wolverine Giles Jackson was unable to cross the 25 on that return. We did witness a couple shaky punt returns, but Caden Kolesar managed to return his second opportunity for 20 yards.

Again, the Wolverines took care of business at home. Some significant questions remain on both sides of the ball, but mostly because we aren’t sure how strong these first two opponents actually were. In terms of what we’ve seen, Jim Harbaugh has this team executing cleanly right now, and embracing a strong physical identity in all phases.

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