UMGOBLUE.COM Michigan Wolverine Football & Basketball
By Fans…For Fans Since 1999
Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer discuss Michigan’s 20-13 win over Rutgers. Includes audio clips of Coach Jim Harbaugh and DL Christopher Hinton.
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Final Score: 20-13, Michigan by 7 over Rutgers
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 21.2 (-14.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 29 (-22)
For the fan base, this game was a teeth-clenched, white-knuckled grinder. The offense did not look sharp on the ground, or through the air. The defense gave up a lot of yardage, and even the kicker and punter seemed off.
But, for the team and for the coaches, this game should be extremely valuable. There is now ample film to analyze and strengthen the team’s weaknesses during this week of practice. The game planning didn’t start especially bad, but there are also major questions about getting out-maneuvered during the half time adjustment period.
Offensively, the linemen up front have to digest this game to understand how Rutgers was able muck up the middle. Michigan’s 17% success rate in the 3rd quarter was followed by an abysmal 15% success rate in the 4th. Blake Corum wasn’t able to get loose in this game, but finished as the leading rusher with 68 yards on 21 carries (3.2 ypc). Cade McNamara was 9 of 16 passing for 163 yards, but seemed a bit off target again. Before the half, McNamara missed an open receiver in the end zone on 2nd down, and Michigan settled for a short field goal. In retrospect, that may have been a pivotal moment.
On defense, the Wolverines were worn down more than we would have predicted by the Rutgers ground game. The Scarlet Knights rolled up 196 yards rushing (4.7 ypc). Three young linebackers should find this film invaluable. Nikhai Hill-Green, Junior Colson and Kalel Mullings answered the call to duty when an injury kept senior caption Josh Ross sidelined. Rutgers had a specific scheme to slow down Aidan Hutchinson, and challenged the rest of the Wolverines to step up. In the biggest moment of the game, David Ojabo was able to answer the bell, stripping QB Noah Vedral, and Colson recovered the fumble to seal the victory.
I don’t know how valuable film study will be for the two specialists, but they will both get back to work to sharpen their execution also. Kicker Jake Moody was 2 for 3 after narrowly missing a 47-yarder wide right in the 4th quarter. Brad Robbins averaged 40.8 yards per punt, but shanked a 32-yard punt when everyone expected him to pin the Knights deep. Rutgers was able to contain Blake Corum on kick returns, but AJ Henning flashed again in the 3rd quarter punt return for 29 yards. It feels like just a matter of time before Henning hits pay dirt. Onward!
Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer give their predictions for game 4 of the Michigan football season vs Rutgers with clips from head coach Jim Harbaugh.
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LAST WEEK RECAP
Northern Illinois had no answers for Michigan’s offense as the Wolverines raced past the Huskies 63-10 in the final non-conference game of 2021.
PREGAME SP+: U-M by 21.2, Michigan Win Probability 89%
The SP+ model is in love with the Wolverines. So much so, that Bill Connelly trolled Michigan fans this past Sunday:
The (way too early) SP+ Resume model is also keeping Rutgers on the radar, currently ranking the Scarlet Knights’ 3-0 start as the 5th best resume to date. Look who is #2:
Michigan Offense (13th) vs. Rutgers Defense (43rd)
Josh Gattis and the Michigan offense have rolled relentlessly right over the top of their first 3 opponents. The offensive line is led by super-senior center Andrew Vastardis, who currently sits atop PFF’s blocking grade list for centers in all of FBS. The Wolverines’ average Expected Points Added (EPA) per play reads an astounding 0.508, even after removing garbage time. For context, the previous high average EPA for seasons I’ve tracked (back to 2016) was 0.209 in 2018. In that 2018 season, the offense only eclipsed this current squad’s average EPA in two individual games: vs. WMU (0.750) and vs. Nebraska (0.633).
In 2020, Rutgers’ defense was able to bottle up the Michigan attack for the first half. However, Cade McNamara’s entry to the game seemed to unlock the Wolverines’ offensive efficiency. Michigan stormed back with 28 second-half points, and eventually held on in 3OT for a 48-42 victory. The Scarlet Knights have also made the challenge harder on themselves. News broke this week that two Rutgers’ defensive players, including starting CB Max Melton, will be suspended for at least this game.
Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Rutgers Offense (87th)
When Rutgers has the ball, defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald will prioritize stopping the Knights’ rushing attack. While they amassed 220 yards rushing in their opening win against Temple, and another 163 yards last week vs. Delaware, Rutgers could only manage 67 rushing yards in Week 2 at Syracuse (#57 defense in SP+). This team is not built to rely on their quarterback, Noah Vedral, and the outside receivers to put up points in bunches either. To continue their defensive success, Michigan must limit RB Isaih Pacheco’s big play ability.
PREDICTION: The 2021 Michigan football team is accomplishing the objectives they have communicated since Spring Ball. First, the offense wanted to strengthen the run game and get off to a better start in each game. Check and check. Second, the defense wanted to install a new system that focuses on being less predictable while maintaining their aggressive nature. Check and check. Jim Harbaugh and his revamped staff seem energized by the early success within their respective position groups on both sides of the ball. The upperclassmen are leading by example on the field. Publicly all the players have maintained focus on the big picture season goals. The program seems to effectively prioritize improving each week.
Good vibes have started to rumble deep within the Michigan fan base. Many folks are still very cautiously guarding their optimism and hope because they’ve been so scalded in recent seasons. I can understand that, but try to make sure you’re appreciating and enjoying the excellent football that these kids are playing right now. Greg Schiano has done well to improve the Rutgers program in just over one full season, but I don’t think this is a team that can disrupt Michigan’s current avalanche of enthusiasm.
Michigan 39 Rutgers 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 33 Rutgers 24)
MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/19/21), 3-0
AP Poll: 19th (↑6), 456
Coaches’ Poll: 19th (↑6), 423
CFP Rank: N/A
