Nothing But ‘Net – Week #03 – 11/11/2013 – Two Bad Halves

The (#7) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they won both of them. On Monday (11/04/2013), they beat Wayne State 79-60, then on Friday (11/08/2013), they beat UMass-Lowell 69-42. The WSU game was just an exhibition, so only the UML game counts. Michigan is now 1-0. Oh yeah: they also raised the 2013 Final Four banner before the UML game, which was fun and cool.

So, why “two bad halves”? Because Michigan played a good 1st half vs. WSU, then they played a very mediocre 2nd half. They followed that up with a terrible 1st half vs. UML, then buckled down and played a decent 2nd half. They were lucky that the two bad halves weren’t in the same game, or they could have easily lost to vastly inferior talent. It’s OK for them to play a lousy half every now and then against a team they should crush, but if they try that against a good team, they’ll dig themselves into a hole they can’t climb out of. The WSU game was never in doubt, but the UML game was scary for a while. The score was tied (23-23) at halftime, and UML actually led in the 2nd half (25-23), before UM went on a 21-0 run to put the game out of reach.

The stats tell the story: in the 1st half of the WSU game, Michigan shot well overall (15-for-23 = 65.2%), and even better from 3-point range (7-for-11 = 63.6%), and even better still from the free-throw line (9-for-11 = 81.8%). That’s why they led 46-30 at halftime. In the 2nd half, they shot much worse overall (9-for-23 = 39.1%), and even worse from 3-point range (2-for-10 = 20.0%). That’s why they barely won the 2nd half, 33-30. The combined stats were: overall shooting (24-for 46 = 52.2%), 3-point shooting (9-for-21 = 42.9%), and free-throw shooting (22-for-28 = 78,6%). These are decent numbers, but you can clearly see the difference between the 1st and 2nd halves. Michigan lost the rebounding battle (36-31), and barely won the turnover battle (10-11). It was an ugly win.

The stats for the UML game are similar, except that the 1st half in this one was the stinker: in the 1st half, Michigan shot very poorly overall (6-for-23 = 26.1%), even worse from 3-point range (1-for-9 = 11.1%), and not very well from the free-throw line (10-for-15 = 66.7%). In the 2nd half, they did better: overall shooting (14-for-30 = 46.7%), 3-point shooting (4-for-9 = 44.4%), and free-throw shooting (14-for-17 = 82.4%). The combined stats are not very impressive: overall shooting (20-for-53 = 37.7%), 3-point shooting (5-for-18 = 27.8%), and free-throw shooting (24-for-32 = 75.0%). UM did win the rebounding battle (39-33) and the turnover battle (7-15).

Individually, only 3 players hit double figures in both games:

One player hit double figures in one game:

Several other players scored in both games:

Max Bielfeldt played in both games, but didn’t score in either. He did try a 3-pointer vs. UML, and he had a couple rebounds.

Mark Donnal played, but didn’t score, in the WSU (exhibition) game, but he didn’t play in the UML. It seems obvious that he’ll be redshirted this season, unless there is a real disaster in the forecourt.

Everyone else played in the last 2 minutes of the UML game, including the new walk-on practice squad player:

Brad Anlauf #14 (6’4″, 195 pounds, F) – Brad is a sophomore who came to the basketball team from the football team, where he was a redshirt-freshman wide receiver.

None of the practice squad players (Anlauf, Andrew Dakich, Sean Lonergan, and Cole McConnell) scored.

Coach Beilein tinkered with the starting lineup a little. In the WSU game, he started Robinson, Horford, Morgan, Walton, and Stauskas. In the UML game, he started LaVert in place of Morgan. He probably won’t settle on a permanent starting lineup until Mitch McGary is finally ready to play, which might not be until January.

So, what does it all mean? Should we be worried about a couple bad halves? I don’t think so. This is still a young team, and they’re still learning that they need to play hard, with focus, every minute of every game. They have shown that they can score in bunches, and that they can play solid defense, they just need to work on their consistency.

 

This Week

This week, Michigan plays 2 games: on Tuesday (11/12/2013, 7:00 p.m., No TV) they play South Carolina State in Crisler Arena, then on Sunday (11/17/2013, 5:00 p.m. EST, ESPN2) they play at Iowa State, in Ames (IA). They shouldn’t have much trouble with SC State, unless they take them too lightly, or have 2 bad halves in a row, but the game at Iowa State could be a challenge. Traditionally, UM has trouble with the first true road game of the season, and ISU is a pretty good team with a good record at home. Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Nothing But ‘Net – Week #02 – 11/04/2013 – Oops, Wrong Cardinals!

The (#7) University of Michigan men’s basketball team beat the Cardinals last week (Tuesday 10/29/2013), but they were the Concordia (Ann Arbor, MI) Cardinals, not the “other” Cardinals (Louisville) they played in their previous game.

Wouldn’t it have been fun if UM had beaten Louisville 117-44 in the National Championship game last April? Alas, this was just an exhibition game against an overmatched NAIA team, but it’s fun to dream…

Typically, Michigan when plays an exhibition game they almost always win, but they often look rusty or sluggish or raw, but not this time. This was a thorough thrashing. The score was actually closer than the actual game. At the last media timeout (3:52 left), the score was 116-38, and Coach Beilein emptied the bench. In the last almost 4 minutes, Michigan scored 1 point. They could have easily scored 140-150 points, but what’s the point (see what I did there?) This way, everyone got to play, and the practice squad got some game experience.

So, what can we learn about this team from a blowout win against a substandard opponent? Not much. We can see who looks comfortable out there, and we can check out the freshmen, but this wasn’t much more than a scrimmage.

Stats

The stats are almost meaningless. Michigan shot very well (41-for-63 = 65.1%), they shot 3-pointers pretty well (11-for-22 = 50.0%), and they shot free-throws pretty well (24-for-33 = 72.7%). They pounded CUAA on the boards (43-26), and they crushed them in the turnover battle (6-23) and the assist battle (26-9). Yeah, 26 assists with only 6 turnovers is really nice.

Individually, 6 Michigan players hit double figures, led by Glenn Robinson III with 33 points. He was a grown man, and future NBA player, playing against a bunch of high school kids. He did whatever he wanted to out there. Outside shooting? 4-for-6 from 3-point range. Dunks? 3 of them. Overall shooting? 12-for-15. Free-throw shooting? 5-for-5. He had quite a game, all in 25 minutes. He looked great: confident, smooth, relaxed, in control.

Next up: Nik Stauskas. Nik “only” had 23 points, with great shooting: 7-for-8 overall, 2-for-3 from 3-point range, and 7-for-7 shooting free throws. As advertised, he looked bigger, stronger, more solid, and more confident.

The 3rd leading scorer was Caris LeVert, with 16 points and 10 assists, for a “double-double”. He also had a great shooting night: 7-for-8 overall, including 1-for-2 from 3-point range. I know it sounds like a broken record, but he also looked much more confident out there, and much stronger and smoother. Last season, everything we got from him seemed like “gravy”, but this season he looks like a “main rotation” player, maybe even a starter. The word from practice is that the college game has “slowed down” for him, and he can start excelling like he did in high school.

Finally, a freshman: Derrick Walton Jr. hit double figures in his first (exhibition) game, with 11 points. He didn’t start, but he came in off the bench pretty early, and he looked good out there. He didn’t have a great night shooting (4-for-7 overall, 2-for-4 from 3-point range), but he did have 4 assists against only 1 turnover. He certainly looked comfortable out therefor 24 minutes, which is all that we can ask for at this point.

The other 2 players to hit double figures were Jordan Morgan and Zak Irvin, both with 10 points. Jordan chipped in 7 rebounds, and Zak looked pretty comfortable out there for a freshman. He played 19 minutes.

The starting lineup was GR3, Morgan, Stauskas, Spike Albrecht, and Jon Horford. Spike had 5 points, and Jon had 4, but Jon was the leading rebounder, with 12 boards.

The only other player to play double-digit minutes was Max Bielfeldt. Max only had 2 points in 11 minutes, and he didn’t do much else while he was out there.

The only other player to score was the 3rd of the scholarship freshmen, Mark Donnal. He played the last 5:28 of the game, and I was surprised that Coach Beilein didn’t put him in earlier. He hit a jumper and a free throw, for 3 points, but he didn’t look very comfortable out there. It won’t be decided/announced until after the 2nd exhibition game, but he sure looks like a good redshirt candidate.

The 3 “preferred walk-on” freshmen (Andrew Dakich, Sean Lonergan, and Cole McConnell) all got to play for the last 3:52, but they didn’t score.

Wait, what about our other All American player, Mitch McGary? Why did GR3 get to have all the fun? Mitch was held out of the game with a sore back. Apparently, he could have played if he had been needed (hah!), but they rested him as a precaution. He’ll probably miss the next exhibition game as well.

This Week

This week, Michigan plays 2 games: their 2nd (and final) exhibition game, then their first “real” game. On Monday (11/04/2013, 7:00 p.m., BTN) they play Wayne State (exhibition), then on Friday (11/08/2013, 7:00 p.m., No TV) they play UMass-Lowell. Both games are in Crisler, and both games should be blowout wins. Come on down to Crisler, and be sure to stop by and say hi to the friendly usher in sections 209/210.

Go Blue!

Nothing But ‘Net – Week #01 – 10/28/2013 – Season Preview

Wow! Is it college basketball season already? It’s only October!

Yeah, it’s time for University of Michigan men’s basketball, and this is the place to read all about it: “Nothing But ‘Net” on UMGoBlue.com. Check back every Monday morning between now and the end of the season (hopefully the National Championship game again) for a quick, concise wrap-up of the previous week, and a look ahead at the upcoming week, all in one easy-to-read article.

As always here at UMGoBlue.com, the perspective is “by fans, for fans”. I’m a fan (since 1974), and I go to all the home games, and watch/listen to all the away games. I don’t have any special access (other than being an usher in Sections 209-210), I don’t go to the press conferences, and I don’t interview high school recruits. I see the same things you do, and write about them as a fan.

So, let’s get right to the big question:

How good is the 2013-2014 team going to be? The easy answer: really good.

This is exactly what I said at this time last year, and look how that worked out: Michigan went to (and should have won) the National Championship game. I don’t know if they’ll make it that far this season, but they certainly have a reasonable chance. The preseason polls all put Michigan in the Top 10, UM returns a strong sophomore class, and the incoming freshman class looks very promising. Sure, there are questions, but things are looking good. Keep reading for more details.

Last Season

Michigan ended the season with a record of 31-8 (12-6 in the Big Ten). They won their first 16 games, including a perfect 13-0 in non-conference play. They were 3-0 in the Big Ten, and ranked #2 in the nation when they finally played a “flat” game, and lost at Ohio State. They won their next 4 games, and worked their way up to being ranked #1 in the nation, then they had to play at Indiana, where they lost. They had a rough schedule, starting with the Indiana game, and lost 3 out of 4 games. They finished tied for 4th place in the Big Ten, but they almost ended up tied for 1st place. They played Indiana in Crisler Arena in the final regular season game, and a last-second tip-in that would have won the game rolled off. If that shot had dropped, UM would have tied for 1st place. Sigh.

As is their tradition, Michigan won their 1st game in the Big Ten Tournament (Penn State), then lost the 2nd game (Wisconsin). Sigh, again.

So, going into the NCAA Tournament, there was little reason to expect Michigan to go very far. They were awarded a #4 seed, so they were expected to get as far as the Sweet 16, which would be a nice milestone for an up-and-coming program. They did win their first 2 games (South Dakota State and Virginia Commonwealth), and advanced to the Sweet 16, but they had to play the #1 seed in the South region, Kansas. It was an exciting game, but with 6:50 left, UM was down 14 points (68-54), with 2:52 left, UM was down 10 points (72-62), and with 21 seconds left, they were still down 5 points (76-71). In a miracle finish, Michigan managed to tie the game up at the buzzer, and win it in overtime! Two days later, they swamped Florida (see what I did there?) by 20 points to go to the Final Four. They beat a good Syracuse team in the National Semifinal game, but lost to Louisville in the National Championship game. They played well enough to win, but they were the victims of some less-than-stellar officiating down the stretch. Sigh, yet again.

As expected, two of the stars from last season’s team (Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr.) left school early for the NBA. They both got drafted in the 1st round, and they appear to have promising pro careers ahead of them, so they made reasonable decisions. Burke had a monster season last year as a sophomore, winning just about every Player Of The Year award out there. Hardaway also had a great junior season, and they both will be missed.

However, there are incoming freshmen who might be able to fill the gaps. It’s asking way too much of true freshmen, right out of high school, to replace players like Burke and Hardaway, but Derrick Walton, Jr. and Zak Irvin have the talent to eventually be great players in their own right. Walton plays point guard, so he’ll try to fill Burke’s position, and Irvin is a wing player with a great shot, so he’ll try to fill Hardaway’s spot. More on the freshmen below.

Players Lost

Besides Burke and Hardaway, Michigan lost 5 other players from last season’s team: 4 graduating seniors and 1 transfer:

These 5 guys made up the practice squad for Michigan, and they will be missed. They didn’t play much, especially last season, but they helped prepare the mainstream players for upcoming games. Akunne and Vogrich both started several games during their careers, but they were eventually replaced by more talented youngsters. Bartelstein, McLimans, and Person only ever played in “garbage time”. Bartelstein wrote a very enjoyable blog the last few years.

McLimans is an interesting story. He didn’t play at all his freshman year, so he still had one year of eligibility left, but he graduated with his class. There’s an NCAA rule that allows graduating seniors with a year of eligibility left to enroll in grad school at another school (as long as the new school has a program that the previous school doesn’t offer) and have instant eligibility, without having to sit out a “transfer year”. So, that’s what McLimans is doing. He didn’t get much playing time at Michigan, but I hope things work out well from him at Miami.

Players Returning

Michigan has a very talented group of players returning this season. Here they are, by class year (eligibility):

Freshman Eligibility

None. There was some talk about redshirting Caris LaVert at the beginning of last season, but they “burned his shirt” in Game #7, so there are no returning redshirt freshmen.

Sophomore Eligibility

Michael (“Spike”) Albrecht #2 (5’11”, 175 pounds, G) – Spike had a pretty good freshman season, but the undisputed highlight was his 17 points off the bench in the National Championship game vs. Louisville. He was playing behind Trey Burke, so he didn’t get as much of a chance to show us what he can do. He will this season, as I’m sure Coach Beilein will lean on him early, until Derrick Walton is ready to play big-time college ball.

Max Bielfeldt #44 (6’7″, 245 pounds, F) – Max was voluntarily redshirted his freshman year, so he has sophomore eligibility. He’s a big, strong player, and he did pretty well last year. Unfortunately for him, Michigan has a very strong forecourt this season, so he might not get much playing time.

Caris LeVert #23 (6’6″, 185 pounds, G) – Caris grew an inch and put on 15 pounds since last season, which will surely help. He had a pretty good freshman season, once they “burned his shirt” in Game #7. He’s quick, he’s nimble, he’s got a good shot, and he’s got great “basketball IQ”. I can’t wait to see what he does this season.

Mitch McGary #4 (6’10”, 255 pounds, F) – Mitch started slow last season, but he kept improving as the season went on, and he had a monster NCAA Tournament. He is a preseason All American, and if he can keep playing at the level he achieved in the Big Dance, he will be the best frontcourt player in college basketball this season. He’s tall, he’s big, he’s strong, he’s agile, and he knows how to finish around the basket. He’s a ferocious defender, and he runs the court well in transition. He is one of the reasons that Michigan is ranked so high this season.

Glenn Robinson III #1 (6’6″, 220 pounds, F) – Glenn had a great freshman season. He started all 37 games last season, and he had some great games. He was a little hesitant with his outside shooting, and he had some quiet games where everyone was surprised when he was the leading scorer at the end. He is also a preseason All American, and a lot is expected of him this season.

Nik Stauskas #11 (6’6″, 205 pounds, G) – I know this sounds like a broken record, but Nik had a great freshman season. He started out hot from 3-point range, and for a while he led the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. He finally cooled off (a little) when the Big Ten schedule rolled around, and the Big Ten coaches figured out how to deny him his favorite 3-point shots, but he still kept contributing. It turns out that he’s “more than just a shooter”: he drove to the hoop with authority, he distributed the ball well, he played better-than-average defense, and he hustled for a lot of loose balls. He is being counted on to toss in a bunch of 3-pointers this season, along with all the other things he can do.

Junior Eligibility

Jon Horford #15 (6’10”, 250 pounds, F) – Jon broke a bone in his right foot during his sophomore year, so he was granted a medical redshirt season, and has junior eligibility. He had a few nagging injuries last season, but when he was in there, he played pretty well, especially on defense. He needs to work on his offensive game a little. He and Jordan Morgan (below) will be counted on to provide upperclass leadership.

Senior Eligibility

Jordan Morgan #52 (6’8″, 250 pounds, F) – It seems like Jordan has been here forever. He redshirted his freshman year, for various medical reasons, and now he finally has senior eligibility. He plays taller than his listed height, and he plays hard and tough underneath. He started most of the games at center last season, until he rolled his ankle in late January. He missed a few games, and came back slowly, which allowed Mitch McGary to start and develop into a force. Jordan will still get his minutes this season, but he might end up behind McGary. He can still help out a lot, especially with some senior leadership.

New Players

Coach Beilein brought in another top-notch recruiting class. While it isn’t a big or as highly-ranked as last season’s freshman class, it fills in the gaps on the roster quite nicely:

Cole McConnell #12 (6’5″, 200 pounds, G) – Cole is a “preferred (or recruited) walk-on”, which means that he has a spot on the team, but not a scholarship (yet). He also has taken over for Josh Bartelstein as the team blogger, and he shows real promise. Of course, his “official” blog is carefully monitored by the Athletic Department, so it won’t contain anything outrageous. His personal Twitter feed (@cmcconnell4) is much more entertaining. Reading his bio on MGoBlue.com, it looks like he’s a good shooter. Hopefully, we’ll get to see him play.

Andrew Dakich #5 (6’2″, 185 pounds, G) – Does the name “Dakich” seem familiar? His father, Dan Dakich, played his college ball at Indiana, and is now an ESPN college basketball analyst, and a pretty good one. Andrew is another “preferred walk-on”, but he’s a talented guard, and he could see some game action in real games, not just “garbage time”.

Mark Donnal #34 (6’9″, 230 pounds, F) – Mark is another big body for the frontcourt. Given all the depth at forward/center, he’s a good candidate for a redshirt. I don’t know much about him, but I’m looking forward to seeing him play in the 2 exhibition games.

Zak Irvin #21 (6’6″, 200 pounds, G) – Zak is a highly-recruited sharpshooter, and was “Mr. Basketball” in Indiana last year. He’s a great shooter and scorer, and he will get a chance to fill Hardaway’s spot in the roster.

Sean Lonergan #20 (6’5″, 195 pounds, F) – Sean is another “preferred walk-on”, destined for the practice squad.

Derrick Walton Jr. #10 (6’1″, 185 pounds, G) – Derrick has the most pressure on him, since everyone will be watching him to see if he can at least partially replace Trey Burke. He’s a great shooter and scorer, and is good at seeing the floor and distributing the ball. We’ll have to see how he does against major college competition.

The key freshmen are obviously Walton and Irvin. If they can step in and at least partially replace Burke and Hardaway, respectively, Michigan will do fine this season. Donnal is not as much of a factor, and the other 3 freshmen are destined for the practice squad.

This Season

Let’s take a look at Michigan’s schedule for this season:

Date Opponent Location Time (ET)
10/29/2013 (Tue) Concordia (MI) (exh) Ann Arbor, MI 7:00 p.m.
11/04/2013 (Mon) Wayne State (exh) Ann Arbor, MI 7:00 p.m.
11/08/2013 (Fri) UMass-Lowell Ann Arbor, MI 7:00 p.m.
11/12/2013 (Tue) South Carolina State Ann Arbor, MI 7:00 p.m.
11/17/2013 (Sun) Iowa State Ames, IA 5:00 p.m.
Puerto Rico Tip-Off
11/21/2013 (Thu) Long Beach State San Juan, PR 5:00 p.m.
11/22/2013 (Fri) Florida St./Virginia Common. San Juan, PR 5:00/7:30 p.m.
11/24/2013 (Sun) Championship/Consolation San Juan, PR TBA
11/29/2013 (Fri) Coppin State Ann Arbor, MI 3:00 p.m.
ACC/Big Ten Challenge
12/03/2013 (Tue) Duke Durham, NC 9:15 p.m.
12/07/2013 (Sat) Houston Baptist Ann Arbor, MI 12:00 p.m.
12/14/2013 (Sat) Arizona Ann Arbor, MI 12:00 p.m.
Brooklyn Hoops Holiday Invitational
12/21/2013 (Sat) Stanford Brooklyn, NY 8:30 p.m.
12/28/2013 (Sat) Holy Cross Ann Arbor, MI 6:30 p.m.
01/02/2014 (Thu) Minnesota Minneapolis, MN 5:00 p.m.
01/05/2014 (Sun) Northwestern Ann Arbor, MI TBA
01/09/2014 (Thu) Nebraska Lincoln, NE 7:00 p.m.
01/14/2014 (Tue) Penn State Ann Arbor, MI 8:00 p.m.
01/18/2014 (Sat) Wisconsin Madison, WI 4:00 p.m.
01/22/2014 (Wed) Iowa Ann Arbor, MI 7:00 p.m.
01/25/2014 (Sat) Michigan State East Lansing, MI 7:00 p.m.
01/30/2014 (Thu) Purdue Ann Arbor, MI 9:00 p.m.
02/02/2014 (Sun) Indiana Bloomington, IN 1:00 p.m.
02/05/2014 (Wed) Nebraska Ann Arbor, MI 6:30 p.m.
02/08/2014 (Sat) Iowa Iowa City, IA 12:00 p.m.
02/11/2014 (Tue) Ohio State Columbus, OH 9:00 p.m.
02/16/2014 (Sun) Wisconsin Ann Arbor, MI 1:00 p.m.
02/23/2014 (Sun) Michigan State Ann Arbor, MI 12:00/6:00 p.m.
02/26/2014 (Wed) Purdue West Lafayette, IN 7:00 p.m.
03/01/2014 (Sat) Minnesota Ann Arbor, MI 6:00 p.m.
03/04/2014 (Tue) Illinois Champaign, IL 5:00 p.m.
03/08/2014 (Sat) Indiana Ann Arbor, MI 6:00 p.m.
Big Ten Tournament
03/13/2014 (Thu) 1st Round Indianapolis, IN TBA
03/14/2014 (Fri) 2nd Round Indianapolis, IN TBA
03/15/2014 (Sat) Semifinals Indianapolis, IN 1:40/4:05
03/16/2014 (Sun) Championship Indianapolis, IN 3:30 p.m.

Some comments on the schedule:

  • Michigan has two exhibition games this season, instead of the typical single game.
  • Michigan (#9) and Virginia Commonwealth (#15) are the only ranked teams in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, but it’s still a good field. The other “name” teams are Kansas State, Georgetown, and Florida State.
  • The toughest stretch in the schedule is definitely the 3 games starting on 02/11 @OSU, followed by a home vs. Wisconsin, and home vs. MSU.
  • After several years of the same 4 “one play” teams (Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin), Michigan has 4 new “one play” teams: Penn State (home), Northwestern (home), Illinois (away), and Ohio State (away). Those are 2 tough away games, but easy home games. It should be reversed next season, which is even better.

Expectations

I like to divide the games up into 3 categories (“Should Win”, “Should Lose”, and “Toss Up”):

  • Should Win (17) – UMass-Lowell, South Carolina State, Iowa State, Long Beach State, Coppin State, Houston Baptist, Arizona, Stanford, Holy Cross, Northwestern, Nebraska (twice), Penn State, Iowa (twice), Purdue (home), Minnesota (home).
  • Should Lose (5) – Duke, Wisconsin (away), MSU (away), Indiana (away), OSU (away).
  • Toss Up (8) – 2nd and 3rd round games in PR, Minnesota (away), Wisconsin (home), MSU (home), Purdue (away), Illinois (away), Indiana (home).

So, if UM can win all 17 of the “Should Win” games, and half of the 8 “Toss Up” games, that would give them a record of 21-9 (11-7 in the Big Ten). That won’t be good enough to win the Big Ten, but it will get UM a good seed in the NCAA Tournament.

This Week

As you can see in the schedule above, Michigan’s first (exhibition) game is this Tuesday (10/29, 7:00 p.m., No TV) vs. Concordia (MI). Of course, UM will win handily, and get to try all kinds of combinations of players out there. Come on down to Crisler Arena to check out this season’s edition of Michigan Basketball, and stop by sections 209/210 to say hi.

Go Blue!

2013 University of Michigan Football Season Predictions

2013 University of Michigan Football Season Predictions

Drew Montag

7 August 2013

Wow, football season is right around the corner; time for my annual UM football predictions. Sure, I’m the “basketball guy” at UMGoBlue.com, but I’m also a big football fan, and I’ve been going to UM games since 1974.

Last season, I didn’t do as well as usual at predicting the games. I thought we’d beat Notre Dame (close), and Ohio State (not as close). I got the rest of my predictions right.

So, how is Michigan going to do this season? I’m thinking “pretty well”. I’m expecting the offense to be a little bit better than last season, the defense to be quite a bit better, and the special teams to be about the same as last season.

Here are my predictions for the 2013 season:

Date Opponent W/L Record Comments
08/31 Central Michigan Win 1-0 On the positive side: UM is obviously better. On the negative side: breaking in a new O-line, first game jitters. This one will be closer than expected.
09/07 Notre Dame Win 2-0 Under The Lights II: Big game, big stage, big improvement. A solid win.
09/14 Akron Win 3-0 Another MAC team, another victory. An easy game, everyone plays.
09/21 at Connecticut (East Hartford, CT) Win 4-0 The first road game of the season is always tough, and this one will be close.
09/28 Bye There are 2 byes this season!
10/05 Minnesota Win 5-0 (1-0) Minnesota is better than last year, but still beatable.
10/12 at Penn State Win 6-0 (2-0) The Sandusky Sanctions hurt PSU’s depth. UM wins a close one.
10/19 Indiana Win 7-0 (3-0) Indiana is better than last year, but not nearly enough.
10/26 Bye An excellent time for a bye week.
11/02 at Michigan State Win 8-0 (4-0) The biggest game of the year. It’s tough to win in East Lansing, but Michigan’s got the team to do it.
11/09 Nebraska Loss 8-1 (4-1) This is already developing into quite a rivalry. Michigan loses a heartbreaker.
11/16 at Northwestern Win 9-1 (5-1) Michigan barely beat Northwestern in Ann Arbor last season, so expect a dogfight.
11/23 at Iowa Win 10-1 (6-1) The only easy road game of the season.
11/30 Ohio State Loss 10-2 (6-2) I hate to lose to Ohio 2 years in a row, but they’ve got too many weapons.

That should be good enough for a tie for 1st place in the Legends division of the Big Ten, but not a place in the B1G Championship game. It will be good enough for a good New Year’s Day bowl game, probably another BCS game.

It’s possible that UM might beat Nebraska, but I doubt it.

Michigan has 5 games that they should win (Central Michigan, Akron, Minnesota, Indiana, and Iowa), 5 “toss up” games (Notre Dame, Connecticut, Penn State, Michigan State, and Northwestern), and 2 that they will be lucky to win (Nebraska and Ohio State). I’ve got them winning all 5 “toss up” games (10-2), but if they only win 3 of the 5 “toss up” games, they’ll be 8-4, which is just OK.

Nothing But ‘Net – Week #26 – 04/22/2013 – Season Wrap-Up, Final Grades, Looking Ahead

Season Wrap-Up

 

The season is over for the 2012-2013 University of Michigan men’s basketball team, and it was a good one. If the last 10 minutes of the National Championship game in the NCAA Tournament had played out a little better, it would have been an exceptional season, but it was still a good season. Michigan had the youngest team in the tournament, but they managed to make it to the championship game. They ended up with a final record of 31-8, 12-6 in the Big Ten.

 

Looking back on the season, UM won almost every “should win” game (12-1), won most of the “toss up” games (18-3), but lost almost all of the “should lose” games (1-4):

 

  • “Should win” games – The only game that Michigan lost that they should have won was The Debacle in State College, when they lost (84-78) to a lousy Penn State team that was previously winless (0-14) in the Big Ten. This was one of the most embarrassing losses in Michigan basketball history.
  • “Toss up” games – Michigan lost 3 “toss up” games:
  • “Should lose”games – Michigan faced several “should lose” games, and they lost 4 of them:
    • At Ohio State. Michigan lost by 3 points (56-53), with a chance to tie it at the buzzer.
    • At Indiana.
    • At Wisconsin. Michigan had this one wrapped up, but Wisconsin hit a half-court shot at the buzzer to send the game into overtime, where Michigan fell apart.
    • At Michigan State. This was Michigan’s only double-digit loss of the season.

    The only “should lose” game that Michigan won was at Minnesota.

 

The theme this season was “redemption”. For several of those losses, there was a matching win later in the season with a striking similarity:

 

  • After Michigan blew a 15-point lead with 10:22 to go in the Debacle in State College, they got a shot at redemption when they played Penn State again in the 1st round of the Big Ten Tournament. They got to exactly the same situation (15-point lead with 10:22 to go), and finished the game strong, increasing their final margin of victory.
  • After Michigan blew a 5-point lead in the last 52 seconds of the Indiana game in Ann Arbor, they got a chance at redemption, but not against the Hoosiers. Instead, they found themselves down 5 points with 52 seconds left against Kansas in the NCAA Tournament, and they managed to force overtime, then win it.
  • After Michigan missed a 3-pointer to tie the game at Ohio State, and saw a long 3-pointer go in against them at Wisconsin, they got a shot at redemption in the Kansas game, and they hit the long 3-pointer to send the game into overtime, where Michigan eventually won it.
  • After getting trounced in East Lansing, Michigan got a measure of redemption by beating MSU in Ann Arbor in the final minute, then going much further in the NCAA Tournament than MSU did.

 

Unfortunately, there were no more games left to get redemption for the last 10 minutes of the National Championship game. Maybe next season.

 

Final Grades

 

Here are the final grades for all the players, along with their mid-term grades, which were given out after the non-conference portion of the schedule was completed, but before Big Ten play started:

 

Freshman Eligibility

 

Spike Albrecht – B (Mid-term = B)

For the first 38 games of the season, Spike’s main contribution was giving Trey Burke a rest for 6-8 minutes per game, but he was just a “placeholder”. Then came the 1st half of the National Championship game, when he tossed in 17 points to single-handedly keep Michigan in the game. Which Spike Albrecht will we see next season? Who knows…

 

Max Bielfeldt – B- (Mid-term = B-)

Max had minor injury problems early in the season, and he only played in 20 of the 39 games. When he was in, he looked solid, if unspectacular. He’s a strong kid, and he knows where the ball is going, so he gets a fair share of the rebounds while he’s on the floor. He’s not much of a scoring threat, but he was a pretty good post defender.

 

Caris LeVert – B (Mid-term = B)

For the first 6 games of the season, it looked like Caris was going to be redshirted, then he played in the Bradley game, and every game since. He has a nice 3-point stroke, he’s fast, he’s athletic, and he has good “court vision”. He could still stand to put on a few pounds of solid muscle over the summer.

 

Mitch McGary – A- (Mid-term = B)

Mitch was the 6th man for most of season, with just a couple of starts, then came the NCAA Tournament. Mitch started all 6 tournament games, and he had an awesome tournament, except for a decent-but-not-great game in the National Championship game. He brings a lot of energy to the game, he’s pretty good at using his size and bulk underneath, and he runs the floor pretty well. He thought about going to the NBA after the season, but decided to stay, probably for just one more year.

 

Glenn Robinson III – B+ (Mid-term = A-)

It’s funny: Glenn is an exciting, dynamic player, with the best dunks on the team, but after every game we always said that his points were “quiet points” that sneak up on you. As advertised out of high school, he is VERY athletic, with great speed and leaping ability. He also showed a better-than-expected touch from 3-point range, and he was a solid defender. He did disappear in a few crucial games, but he still had an excellent freshman season. Like Mitch McGary, he thought about going to the NBA after the season, but decided to stay, probably for just one more year.

 

Nik Stauskas – B (Mid-term = A)

After the non-conference portion of the schedule, Nik was the star of the freshman class. In fact, at that point he was one of the best 3-point shooters in all of college basketball. Unfortunately, once the Big Ten season started, he cooled off considerably. The defenses in the Big Ten knew how to handle a sharpshooting guard, and they made it a lot harder to get a clean shot off. He had a mediocre NCAA Tournament, except for the Florida game, where he was amazing. If he could have hit a few more of his open 3-pointers in the Louisville game, UM might have won it all. If he can regain his early-season form next season, and maintain it for the Big Ten schedule, he will be a very valuable player on next season’s team.

 

Sophomore Eligibility

 

Trey Burke – A+ (Mid-term = A+)

I don’t give out many A+ grades, but Trey deserves it. He was easily the best player in all of college basketball this season, and he swept all the national Player Of The Year awards. He led the team in scoring (18.6 points/game), assists (260 – a new single-season school record), steals (62), and minutes played (35.3 minutes/game). He did it all, and he often put the team on his back and carried them, especially at the end of big games. His clutch performance in the Kansas game in the NCAA Tournament was one for the ages, including “The Shot” – a 30-footer at the buzzer to send the game into overtime. Unfortunately, Trey is now good enough to take his game to the NBA, where he’ll certainly be a Top 10 draft pick. We’ll miss him, and we wish him well.

 

Jon Horford – B- (Mid-term = B)

Jon missed a few games due to injury, but when he was in, he played well. He has a spring/bounce to his step that few other players have. He showed a real talent for blocking shots and playing tough defense. His offensive game is a little behind.

 

Junior Eligibility

 

Tim Hardaway Jr. – A- (Mid-term = A-)

When Tim was good, he was very good, but when he was having an “off” game, he disappeared. Still, he was the 2nd leading scorer on the team (14.5 points/game), and the 3rd leading rebounder (4.7 rebounds/game). Like Trey Burke, his game is good enough to take it to the next level, and he has decided to enter the NBA Draft. As with Trey, we wish Tim all the best.

 

Blake McLimans – C- (Mid-term = C-)

Blake didn’t play during his freshman year, so he’s a redshirt junior, with one year of eligibility left. Apparently, he’s not going to be back next season. I like Blake, and I really wanted to see him succeed, but when he was in the game, he just didn’t deliver. He only got in during “garbage time”, which is a shame.

 

Jordan Morgan – B- (Mid-term = B+)

Jordan was having a solid season, mostly as a defensive specialist, until he sprained his ankle in the game at Illinois. From that point on, he had a hard time regaining his form. When he recovered from the injury enough to play a few minutes per game, he played very tentatively. He eventually regained his starting spot, but failed to deliver, and was replaced by Mitch McGary in the starting lineup for the NCAA Tournament games. I hope he can regain his confidence for next season.

 

Senior Eligibility

 

Eso Akunne – C- (Mid-term = C)

Eso didn’t play much, mostly in “garbage time”, and when he was in there, he had a tendency to fire up 3-pointers every chance he got.

 

Josh Bartelstein – Inc. (Mid-term = Inc.)

Josh has only played in 6 games (10 minutes) all season, and he failed to score on 1 field goal and 2 free throw attempts. He injured his ankle, and that cost him a few chances to get in the games. He was the captain of the team, and his leadership skills were fine. He also wrote a few entertaining blog for the last 3 years.

 

Corey Person – Inc. (Mid-term = Inc.)

Corey played in 10 games this season, but all of it was in “garbage time”. He did score 10 points, including a pair of 3-pointers.

 

Matt Vogrich – C- (Mid-term = C-)

Matt started the season as a starter, and gave it his best effort, but Nik Stauskas was playing too well to keep him on the bench instead of starting him. Since he was relegated to the bench, Matt did less and less with the few minutes he managed to get on the floor, and ended up playing during “garbage time”. It’s a shame, because he can shoot 3-pointers almost as well as Stauskas, but he seems to have lost his touch.

 

Looking Ahead

 

Ah, recruiting, my old friend. If you look back over the last 14+ years’ worth of articles, you’ll see that I don’t talk much about recruiting or incoming players, except for the “Looking Ahead” section of the last article of each season. There are a few reasons for that:

 

  1. It’s hard to evaluate high school players based on 2nd hand reports and choppy videoclips. Just about any high school player can be made to look like the next coming of Michael Jordan in “hype” videos.
  2. It’s hard to tell how good a high school player is going to be in college by seeing how he does against high school players. There is such a wide variation in skill levels of the opponents.
  3. Not every player who commits to a given college program actually ends up on the roster for the first real game. Players decommit, get injured, or quit basketball. I don’t count on a player until I actually see him on the floor for the first real game.
  4. I need to see a player in person, in a real game, before I can form a well-considered opinion. The exhibition games barely count. Garbage time of a real game barely counts.

 

That said, it’s time to look ahead at next season’s roster. There are big changes in store, since 4 players with senior eligibility (Akunne, Bartelstein, Person, and Vogrich) and 1 player with junior eligibility (McLimans) are leaving, and 2 more players (Burke and Hardaway) are entering the NBA Draft. That’s 7 players lost from this season’s roster. Fortunately, there are 3 very good incoming freshmen to help fill the void:

 

  • Mark Donnal – 6’9″, 225 pounds, forward. Mark is described as a power forward, but in the Beilein system that probably means “center”. However, Mark isn’t a true “back to the basket” center, and he has a decent 3-point shot. With all the depth at “big man” next year (Morgan, Bielfeldt, Horford, and McGary), he might be a good redshirt candidate.
  • Zak Irvin – 6’6″, 185 pounds, forward. Zak is listed as a shooting forward, so think “wing”. Think “Tim Hardaway, Jr.”, but with a better 3-point shot. Zak was “Mr. Basketball” and the Gatorade Player of the Year for the state of Indiana.
  • Derrick Walton – 6’0″, 165 pounds, guard. Derrick is a point guard, but he’s a “shooting point guard”, as opposed to an “assist point guard”. He’s got a great outside shot, and he can take the ball to the basket and convert.

 

Now, Walton may be an excellent high school point guard, but there’s no way he’s going to step right in and replace Trey Burke. There’s bound to be some letdown, and there’s bound to be a learning curve. Yet, I’m confident that somehow Coach Beilein will patch together minutes from Spike Albrecht, Caris LeVert, and Derrick Walton to replace 75% – 85% of Trey’s contributions (points, assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks).

 

Likewise, Zak Irvin isn’t going to instantly step in and make us forget Tim Hardaway, Jr. He may in fact be a better shooter and scorer, but he’s still an incoming freshman. However, Coach Beilein proved to us all this season that he can get a lot of production out of a young team, and he’ll have to do it again next season. Fortunately, he’s got a lot of talented players to work with.

 

Check back here again next season, the week before the first game, for a season preview.

 

Go Blue!