Author: Clint Derringer

@clint_derringer on Twitter U-M B.A. Sport Management & Communications ‘05 U-M M.S. Program & Project Management ‘18
Posted on

Michigan Football By the Numbers: Michigan State

For the second consecutive week, the Wolverines gave a Big Ten foe a dose of their own medicine.  This week, it was a strangle hold slapped onto Michigan State that feels like the first step toward pay back for Devin Gardner’s ribs.  Michigan’s #1 ranked S&P+ defense held the Spartans to under 100 total yards.  Offensively, Jim Harbaugh stuck to his run-first game plan, and he was rewarded as Michigan State’s #2 ranked S&P+ rush defense could not withstand the onslaught for the full 41+ minutes that Michigan possessed the ball.

What is S&P+
The original system was based on Success rate and equivalent Points per play. It was an attempt at an OPS-style measure for football, a look at both efficiency and explosiveness. As so many things do, however, it has grown more complicated.In its current state, S&P+ is based around the core concepts of the Five Factors of winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers.  Full Explanation 
TABLE: FIVE FACTORS

OFFENSE

This was a rinse-and-repeat performance for the Wolverines’ offense. The philosophy that worked at home versus Wisconsin last week, also worked very well on the road versus Michigan State this week. Michigan ran 76 plays, to Michigan State’s 49. Time of Possession was 41 minutes to 19 minutes.  The coaching staff doubled down on their game plan centered around their dominant defense and a patient offense when they chose to punt three times from the MSU half of the field in the second quarter. Jim Harbaugh and the players believed Michigan was the better team, and that keeping the pressure on the Spartans would eventually lead to success on another stormy October Saturday, and they were absolutely correct. On the season, Michigan is running the ball on 60.9% of their offensive plays. This game was a bit above that season average with 64.5% of plays on the ground. Given the game plan, and the weather conditions, I still believe there is a significant amount of this offense that we are yet to see unveiled, especially through the air.

DEFENSE

This season is shaping into a horror movie, directed by Don Brown and starring Big Ten quarterbacks. Teams have only been able to compile a success rate of 32.6% versus Michigan’s defense. This unit is also limiting explosiveness, giving up 3.9 yards per play, and an IsoPPP of 0.84. In this rivalry game, the defense really stepped to the forefront, even without Rashan Gary. Michigan State’s 22.5% Success Rate is the lowest for any Michigan opponent this season. This defensive performance ranked in the 94th percentile after adjusting for opponent, tied with the Wolverine’s performance in a 49-3 blowout over Western Michigan. The 1.96 yards/play for the Spartans is by far the lowest for an opponent facing Michigan this season, 28% lower than what WMU could muster. Now the revenge tour circles back to Ann Arbor in two weeks to welcome Penn State. This date has very likely been circled in red ink on Don Brown’s calendar for a full year after the Nittany Lions put up 506 total yards, and 42 points in 2017. My advice is to get your popcorn ready and watch what Coach Brown has in store for James Franklin’s squad.

S&P+ THROUGH WEEK 8

MICHIGAN S&P+
Overall: 20.9, 4th (same)
Offense: 33.3, 30th (down 3)
Defense: 12.6, 1st (same)

REGULAR SEASON PROJECTIONS vs. RESULTS

@ Michigan State UM 21 MSU 7
Pregame Midpoint S&P+: UM by 6.05, 8-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 6, 7-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 7.3

NEXT UP

vs. Penn State: Overall 14.7, 10th
M Offense 33.3, (30th) vs. O Defense 21.7 (27th), Midpoint: 30.35
M Defense 12.6 (1st) vs. O Offense 36.5 (18th), Midpoint: 24.55

PREGAME EDGE: Michigan
The midpoint of S&P+ ratings gives a 5.8 point edge to Michigan. This year, Don Brown is given the bye week to prepare for this matchup with Trace McSorley and the RPO. Again, Michigan’s offense is faced with the closer matchup statistically, making Shea Patterson’s performance pivotal.

GAME WEEK UPDATE: The bye week comes at a perfect time as Michigan will look to get healthier on the defensive line, while also spending a little extra time in the film room and on the recruiting trail. Watch out for some early fireworks in this one as the Wolverines may unveil a few new wrinkles and “counter to the counter” plays that have been set up on film through eight weeks.
Michigan 34 PSU 10 (PRESEASON: Michigan 24 PSU 13)

TL;DR SUMMARY

The Michigan Football team turned in another rock solid performance, this time in a road rivalry game. Again the game plan was built around their smothering defense, and an improving offensive line. Next show on the revenge tour brings Penn State back into Ann Arbor where the Wolverines won 49-10 in 2016.

Posted on

Michigan Football By the Numbers: Wisconsin

The Wolverines put together a tremendous all-around performance to dispatch of the Wisconsin Badgers. We must give credit where it’s due, and I think that starts with Ed Warriner and the Offensive Line, with a tip of the cap to Don Brown and Greg Mattison. Shea Patterson is in a lot of headlines, but Warriner and his group are the biggest reason Michigan’s offense has improved from 85th in the S&P+ in 2017 to 27th in 2018 through Week 7. Defensively, Michigan retained the #1 S&P+ defensive ranking after clamping down on what was the 8th ranked S&P+ Badgers’ offense, despite Rashan Gary missing his second consecutive game due to injury.

What is S&P+
The original system was based on Success rate and equivalent Points per play. It was an attempt at an OPS-style measure for football, a look at both efficiency and explosiveness. As so many things do, however, it has grown more complicated.In its current state, S&P+ is based around the core concepts of the Five Factors of winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers.  Full Explanation 
TABLE: FIVE FACTORS

*I found and corrected a bug in my modified S&P+ excel file that affected IsoPPP.  I have corrected previous weeks’ data in my workbook also.

OFFENSE

The simplest understanding of this game is this: Michigan did to Wisconsin what we’ve seen the Badgers due to B1G Ten opponents for a decade, they executed. Even though everyone knew what Jim Harbaugh wanted to do on offense, the players were able to execute successfully anyway. Coming in, Michigan’s average success rate was 49.2%. They managed 45.6% success against Wisconsin. In terms of explosiveness, Expected Points / Play (PPP) is a metric that quantifies each play based on starting yard line versus ending yard line. IsoPPP looks only at successful play, which helps separate it from the Success Rate metric. Michigan’s average in PPP coming in was 0.49. They were above average versus the Badgers at 0.51. The offense was also slightly above (0.98) their season average (0.92) in IsoPPP. For me, the most remarkable offensive characteristic from this encouraging performance was that we can definitively say the game went according to plan. We are starting to see Jim Harbaugh’s offensive vision come into focus.

DEFENSE

In year three under Don Brown, it’s quite a challenge to avoid sounding like a broken record as I compliment the defensive unit week in and week out. Saturday night on the national stage in prime time, versus the 8th ranked S&P+ offense coming in, was precisely the defensive performance that Harbaugh’s staff has been game planning around. Wisconsin had more success than average versus the Wolverine defense, but never enough to flip field position or to create scoring opportunities. Coming into the game, opponents were averaging 33.2% success rate, 0.29 PPP, and 0.83 IsoPPP against Michigan. The physical Wisconsin offense established a 38% success rate, 0.42 PPP, and 1.01 IsoPPP. However, after the Badgers scored to tie the game 7-7 in the second quarter, their next six drives went: Punt, INT, Punt, Punt, Punt, INT for TD.

S&P+ THROUGH WEEK 7

MICHIGAN S&P+
Overall: 20.4, 4th (up 1)
Offense: 34.7, 27th (down 2)
Defense: 14.6, 1st (up 1)

REGULAR SEASON PROJECTIONS vs. RESULTS

vs. Wisconsin UM 38 UW 13
Pregame Midpoint S&P+: UM by 3.65, 7-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 4, 6-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 6.3

NEXT UP

@ Michigan State: Overall 8.3, 33rd
M Offense 34.7, (27th) vs. O Defense 20.1 (21st), Midpoint: 27.4
M Defense 14.6 (1st) vs. O Offense 28.1 (75th), Midpoint: 21.35

PREGAME EDGE: Michigan
My midpoint S&P+ method gives a 6.05 point edge to Michigan. The Spartan defense versus Wolverine offense is a key match-up of similarly ranked units. Defensively, Michigan will have to weather the storm as MSU empties the entire bag of tricks.

GAME WEEK UPDATE: Can Michigan pack their balanced, complementary game plan with them for a short trip to East Lansing? The struggles on the road are still worrisome, and we know the Spartans will come out firing hay-makers. I expect Pep Hamilton and Shea Patterson to expose a weak MSU secondary. However, if the weather gets sloppy, this could turn into an old-fashion battle of will power.
Michigan 20 MSU 14 (PRESEASON: Michigan 27 MSU 17)

TL;DR SUMMARY

Now we have finally seen the Michigan game plan of an efficient offense complementing a dominant defense work to effectively grind a solid opponent into powder. There is still a significant amount of work to be done, and it is crucial for the Wolverines to show they can execute the game plan at a similar high level in a hostile environment in East Lansing this week.

Posted on

Michigan Football By the Numbers: Maryland

We are now half way through the season, and the Wolverines are 5-1. I am going to look at the performance versus Maryland alongside some trends and averages to this point. My goal is to provide a useful prism through which we can view these critical upcoming games versus Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Penn State.

What is S&P+
The original system was based on Success rate and equivalent Points per play. It was an attempt at an OPS-style measure for football, a look at both efficiency and explosiveness. As so many things do, however, it has grown more complicated.In its current state, S&P+ is based around the core concepts of the Five Factors of winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers.  Full Explanation 
TABLE: FIVE FACTORS

OFFENSE

Jim Harbaugh’s offensive philosophy is a popular topic both locally and nationally. Conversations and debates range from Pro-style vs. Spread, to Power vs. Inside Zone, and even Clock Control vs. Quick Strike. I am going to focus on one of Michigan’s main objectives: to use balanced play calling to provide max flexibility by situation. To this point in the season, the Wolverines are averaging 59.3% run plays, and 40.7% pass plays. Total yardage is split even closer at 51.2% run and 48.8% pass. The play calling in the Maryland game followed this trend very closely, dividing 60.9% run and 39.1% pass.
We can also see balance when looking at Success Rate. Through six games, Michigan’s overall offensive success rate is 49.2%. This breaks down to a 50.4% Success Rate on run plays, and 47.5% Success Rate on pass plays. The Maryland game provides reason for optimism by showing the offense is on an upward trend. On Saturday, the Wolverines were successful on 57.1% of their run plays, and on 55.6% of their pass plays.

DEFENSE

From game to game, the Michigan defense is amazingly consistent from a Success Rate perspective. The Wolverines are allowing successful plays only 33.2% of the time. The most successful team was Northwestern, with a 39.7% success rate, while the least successful team was Nebraska at 24.0%. Perhaps the statistic that is most emblematic of Don Brown’s philosophy is the yardage allowed on unsuccessful plays: 56 yards. That is TOTAL, through SIX games. Two-thirds of the plays run against Michigan’s defense have accumulated just 56 yards, or 0.2 yards per play. For even more perspective, Maryland’s average of 0.9 yds per play on unsuccessful plays is the BEST by any team versus Michigan so far in 2018.
Overall, the Success Rate versus Michigan’s defense is also very consistent by quarter and by half. However, the two most troublesome performances stand out pretty clearly in their 1st Half / 2nd Half splits. Notre Dame: 1st Half – 42.5% / 2nd Half – 22.2% & Northwestern: 1st Half – 44.4% / 2nd Half – 33.3%. In the three key games coming up for the Wolverines, it feels like the halftime score will be particularly predictive. The key for the Michigan defense will be to eliminate the fast starts for their opponents.

S&P+ THROUGH WEEK 6

MICHIGAN S&P+
Overall: 22.7, 5th (up 2)
Offense: 36.3, 25th (up 2)
Defense: 14.0, 2nd (up 2)

REGULAR SEASON PROJECTIONS vs. RESULTS

vs. Maryland UM 42 MD 21
Pregame S&P+: UM by 9.15, 6-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 25, 5-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 5.4

@ Northwestern: UM 20 NEB 17
Pregame S&P+: UM by 10.7, 5-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 17, 4-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 4.4

vs. Nebraska: UM 56 NEB 10
Pregame S&P+: UM by 8.6, 4-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 11, 3-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 3.6

vs. SMU: UM 45 SMU 20
Pregame S&P+: UM by 20.0, 3-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 39, 2-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 2.6

vs. Western Michigan: UM 49 WMU 3
Pregame S&P+: UM by 10.8, 2-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 25, 1-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 1.6

@ Notre Dame: ND 24 UM 17
Preseason S&P+: ND by 0.1, 1-0
Preseason Clint: UM by 4, 0-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 0.6

NEXT UP

vs. Wisconsin: Overall 15.3, 13th
M Offense 36.3, (25th) vs. O Defense 27.8 (55th), Midpoint: 32.05
M Defense 14.0 (2nd) vs. O Offense 42.8 (8th), Midpoint: 28.4

PREGAME EDGE: Michigan
The midpoint S&P+ gives a 3.65 point edge to Michigan. The Badger offense is producing right around the rate at which most predicted in the preseason. However, it is a big surprise to see Wisconsin’s defense just barely above average. They were 9th in the preseason S&P+ rankings.

GAME WEEK UPDATE: Michigan would love to buck the trend of slow starts on both sides of the ball. The last thing the Wolverines want to do is spot the Badgers a lead for Jonathan Taylor and their O-Line to protect. I expect this to be very close into the 4th quarter, with a handful of defensive and special teams big plays delivering a huge win for Michigan.
Michigan 24 Wisconsin 20 (PRESEASON: Wisconsin 24 Michigan 21)

TL; DR SUMMARY

Balance on offense, and an attacking defense have led to a 5-1 start for the Wolverines. However, Michigan started 5-1 in 2017 also. Finding success into the November schedule (i.e. wins over Wisconsin, MSU, & PSU) is absolutely required to eliminate Michigan’s reputation for fading down the stretch under Jim Harbaugh.

Posted on

Michigan Football By the Numbers: Northwestern

It’s tough to win on the road in the B1G Ten, especially when you’ve spotted a 17-point lead to a team with a top-25 defense.  Michigan definitely showed some guts as they pulled off the largest comeback in Jim Harbaugh’s NCAA coaching career.

TABLE: FIVE FACTORS

OFFENSE

I am not worried about the Offensive Coordinator Committee, yet. Maybe this game was more about a solid Northwestern defensive staff having a bye week to prepare. Michigan still averaged 5.7 yards per play against a top-25 defense. However, I have had this blind optimism in years past. I held out hope that there was an ace or two up Harbaugh’s sleeve that he would pull out at exactly the right moment, perhaps against a favored Buckeye team. If I recall correctly, those previous seasons ended in disappointment. Here’s hoping that the offensive game plan looks sharper against what should be an over-matched Maryland squad.

DEFENSE

Do you want the good news, or the bad news first? The good news is that Don Brown and his staff can be counted on to make superb in-game adjustments. Once Michigan’s defensive staff has diagnosed the offense’s plan of attack, they are almost lights out. The bad news? Slow starts on the road have resulted in giving up 31 first half points, as opposed to just 3 in the second half. The Wolverine defense has carried the lion’s share of the load under Harbaugh, but offensive success was the only thing that made this game feel different than Week 1 versus Notre Dame.

S&P+ THROUGH WEEK 5

MICHIGAN S&P+
Overall: 21.6, 7th (down 2)
Offense: 35.6, 27th (down 3)
Defense: 14.5, 4th (same)

REGULAR SEASON PROJECTIONS vs. RESULTS

@ Northwestern: UM 20 NEB 17
Pregame S&P+: UM by 10.7, 5-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 17, 4-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 4.4

vs. Nebraska: UM 56 NEB 10
Pregame S&P+: UM by 8.6, 4-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 11, 3-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 3.6

vs. SMU: UM 45 SMU 20
Pregame S&P+: UM by 20.0, 3-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 39, 2-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 2.6

vs. Western Michigan: UM 49 WMU 3
Pregame S&P+: UM by 10.8, 2-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 25, 1-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 1.6

@ Notre Dame: ND 24 UM 17
Preseason S&P+: ND by 0.1, 1-0
Preseason Clint: UM by 4, 0-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 0.6

NEXT UP

vs. Maryland: Overall 3.2, 56th
M Offense 35.6, (27th) vs. O Defense 25.5 (50th), Midpoint: 30.55
M Defense 14.5 (4th) vs. O Offense 28.3 (76th), Midpoint: 21.4

PREGAME EDGE: Michigan
The midpoint S&P+ gives a 9.15 point edge to Michigan. The Terrapins have a slightly better-than-average defense, and slightly worse-than-average offense.

GAME WEEK UPDATE: The Wolverines simply play much better at home. I expect to see Maryland cause some early problems before Michigan settles in and starts to roll along. I am particularly interested to see if the Michigan defense can eliminate the penalty issues. On the offensive side, I wonder what happened to Grant Perry?
Michigan 35 Maryland 10 (PRESEASON: Michigan 45 Maryland 10)

TL;DR SUMMARY

Some concerning trends are emerging, but Michigan is 4-1 and still showing signs of growth offensively. A home tilt versus the wildly inconsistent Maryland Terrapins should be another opportunity for the Wolverines to correct mistakes before key games against Wisconsin, MSU, and PSU.

Posted on

Michigan Football By the Numbers: Nebraska

That was a VERY satisfying way to take a 5-4-1 series lead over the Cornhuskers.  Onward to Evanston!

TABLE: FIVE FACTORS

OFFENSE

Raise your hand if you had Week 4 circled as the first “take ’em to the wood shed” performance from Michigan’s offensive line. Nobody?  Me either.  In my opinion, the raw statistics tell more of the story than the S&P Five Factors do, because I did not remove garbage time for my analysis.  And by garbage time, I mean the entire second half.  Michigan was able to take Shea Patterson out in the 3rd quarter after another solid performance, and again Dylan McCaffrey was strong in his mop up role.  For me, the most encouraging sign for the offense was the return of the explosive run play.  The offensive line not only achieved great initial push along the front, the big run plays imply that blocks are being maintained at the second level, including by the wide receivers.

DEFENSE

Nebraska managed to salvage a small edge in Finishing Drives because they cashed in on both of their scoring opportunities, while Michigan went 6-of-7 thanks to an interception thrown by the third string QB.  However, Nebraska did not cross Michigan’s 40-yard line until their sad, “no shutout” field goal in the 3rd quarter.  Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich did not play any longer into the 3rd quarter than Shea Patterson did.  Devin Bush is clearly a step (or two) faster than Nebraska’s best offensive weapons.  Again, the lopsided raw statistics are more indicative of the butt kickin’ in this game. Nebraska increased their Yards per Play above 3.0 by finding some room to breathe against the 2nd and 3rd string Wolverines.  It was the first truly dominant performance in 2018 from Don Brown’s guys. Let’s hope there is more where that came from!

S&P+ THROUGH WEEK 4

MICHIGAN S&P+
Overall: 25.1, 5th (up 5)
Offense: 37.7, 24th (up 14)
Defense: 12.9, 4th (up 3)

REGULAR SEASON PROJECTIONS vs. RESULTS

vs. Nebraska: UM 56 NEB 10
Pregame S&P+: UM by 8.6, 4-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 11, 3-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 3.6

vs. SMU: UM 45 SMU 20
Pregame S&P+: UM by 20.0, 3-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 39, 2-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 2.6

vs. Western Michigan: UM 49 WMU 3
Pregame S&P+: UM by 10.8, 2-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 25, 1-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 1.6

@ Notre Dame: ND 24 UM 17
Preseason S&P+: ND by 0.1, 1-0
Preseason Clint: UM by 4, 0-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 0.6

NEXT UP

@ Northwestern: Overall 3.1, 60th
M Offense 37.7 (24th) vs. O Defense 20.6 (24th), Midpoint: 29.15
M Defense 12.9 (4th) vs. O Offense 24.0 (96th), Midpoint: 18.45

PREGAME EDGE: Michigan
S&P+ gives a 10.7 point edge to Michigan. The Wildcats have not been impressive at all, but this Michigan team still needs to show it can be sharp on the road.

GAME WEEK UPDATE: The match-up to watch is Michigan’s offense versus Northwestern’s defense, as both are ranked #24 in the S&P+. Harbaugh will look to maintain balance between pass & run, while wearing down the Wildcats into the 3rd and 4th quarters.
Michigan 31 Northwestern 14 (PRESEASON: Michigan 17 Northwestern 14)

TL;DR SUMMARY

One team out-hit the other by a significant margin. The scoreboard reflects which is which. To his credit, Scott Frost did not try to spin any fictional moral victories during his 2018 post-game press conference.