Author: Clint Derringer

@clint_derringer on Twitter U-M B.A. Sport Management & Communications ‘05 U-M M.S. Program & Project Management ‘18
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By the Numbers: Game 5 @ Wisconsin

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LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan survived a scare from Rutgers for the second season in a row.  This time the Scarlet Knights were the team coming back from a 17-point deficit, but the Wolverines made the stops they needed to hold on 20-13.

NEXT UP: @ Wisconsin: 11th, 16.9

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 1.0, Michigan Win Probability 52%

Only 3 spots separate Michigan and Wisconsin in the SP+ rankings, despite the Wolverines’ (4-0) and Badgers’ (1-2) vastly different records.   Wisconsin’s two losses have come to SP+ #5 Penn State and #22 Notre Dame. 

Michigan Offense (17th) vs. Wisconsin Defense (4th) 

One primary reason I ground my expectations in analytics involves avoiding recency bias.  Even though Michigan’s offense had been a juggernaut for 6 out of 8 quarters this season, the last 2 quarters against Rutgers are fresh in the minds of all Michigan fans.  Although the rushing attack sputtered, and the passing game could not find their rhythm last Saturday, the Wolverines still sit at #17 in SP+ offense rankings.  That’s 1 spot in front of Penn State, and 22 spots ahead of Notre Dame.

On the flip side Wisconsin has an elite defensive unit, especially against the run.  I don’t expect to see the Badgers surrender a large number of scoring chances.  That means we’ll keep an eye on IsoPPP to measure how explosive Michigan can be when they do find successful plays. 

Points per Scoring Opportunity also shines as a critical metric for this game .  When the offense penetrates the Wisconsin 40-yard line, they will need to score touchdowns rather than settling for field goal attempts.

Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Wisconsin Offense (50th)

We can reasonably say that Mike MacDonald’s defensive unit saved Michigan’s victory over Rutgers.  When SP+ ranked the Wolverines’ defense #10 in the preseason, I mentioned that I thought that was inflated.  Through 4 weeks, Michigan has not only validated that initial ranking, but continued to climb as preseason expectations are removed from the SP+ model. 

In this week’s matchup with the Badgers, the Michigan defense represents the largest unit-versus-unit advantage for the Wolverines.  If the defense can create havoc and negative plays early in this game, they may be able to help subdue the crowd’s energy.  The Badgers’ fan base is starving for some positivity during their rocky start to the 2021 season.  Aidan Hutchinson, Dax Hill, and Josh Ross need to implant doubt & negative vibes into the Camp Randall crowd as early as possible.

PREDICTION: The range of possible outcomes for this game extends to both ends of the spectrum.  It could be a nail-biter for the duration.  However, the conditions feel right for either team to play poorly and get boat-raced off the field. 

The early season narrative for the Badgers starts with QB Graham Mertz struggling and turning the ball over.  Michigan continues to protect the ball very well to this point of the season.  If the turnover margin continues on that trend, then we could be celebrating a huge road victory from Madison. 

I expect both teams to play conservatively to limit the big momentum swings.  I can’t yet bring myself to predict a fast start and a complete 60-minute performance from Michigan on the road.  I still need to see a sharp game plan from each coordinator, and the leaders on the field consistently execute at a high level.
Michigan 17 Wisconsin 20 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Wisconsin 30)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/26/21), 4-0

  • SP+ Overall: 8th (↓2), 20.4
  • SP+ Offense: 17th (↓4), 35.8
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (same), 15.8
  • SP+ Special Teams: 9th (↓7), 0.3

AP Poll: 14th (↑5), 677

Coaches’ Poll: 14th (↑5), 674

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #4
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Michigan 20 Rutgers 13 – Game 4 Recap

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GAME 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 20-13, Michigan by 7 over Rutgers
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 21.2 (-14.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 29 (-22)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 4 RECAP vs. Rutgers

For the fan base, this game was a teeth-clenched, white-knuckled grinder. The offense did not look sharp on the ground, or through the air. The defense gave up a lot of yardage, and even the kicker and punter seemed off.

But, for the team and for the coaches, this game should be extremely valuable. There is now ample film to analyze and strengthen the team’s weaknesses during this week of practice. The game planning didn’t start especially bad, but there are also major questions about getting out-maneuvered during the half time adjustment period.

Offensively, the linemen up front have to digest this game to understand how Rutgers was able muck up the middle. Michigan’s 17% success rate in the 3rd quarter was followed by an abysmal 15% success rate in the 4th. Blake Corum wasn’t able to get loose in this game, but finished as the leading rusher with 68 yards on 21 carries (3.2 ypc). Cade McNamara was 9 of 16 passing for 163 yards, but seemed a bit off target again. Before the half, McNamara missed an open receiver in the end zone on 2nd down, and Michigan settled for a short field goal. In retrospect, that may have been a pivotal moment.

On defense, the Wolverines were worn down more than we would have predicted by the Rutgers ground game. The Scarlet Knights rolled up 196 yards rushing (4.7 ypc). Three young linebackers should find this film invaluable. Nikhai Hill-Green, Junior Colson and Kalel Mullings answered the call to duty when an injury kept senior caption Josh Ross sidelined. Rutgers had a specific scheme to slow down Aidan Hutchinson, and challenged the rest of the Wolverines to step up. In the biggest moment of the game, David Ojabo was able to answer the bell, stripping QB Noah Vedral, and Colson recovered the fumble to seal the victory.

I don’t know how valuable film study will be for the two specialists, but they will both get back to work to sharpen their execution also. Kicker Jake Moody was 2 for 3 after narrowly missing a 47-yarder wide right in the 4th quarter. Brad Robbins averaged 40.8 yards per punt, but shanked a 32-yard punt when everyone expected him to pin the Knights deep. Rutgers was able to contain Blake Corum on kick returns, but AJ Henning flashed again in the 3rd quarter punt return for 29 yards. It feels like just a matter of time before Henning hits pay dirt. Onward!

2021-04-UM-20-Rutgers-13-Final-StatsDownload
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By the Numbers: Game 4 vs. Rutgers

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LAST WEEK RECAP

Northern Illinois had no answers for Michigan’s offense as the Wolverines raced past the Huskies 63-10 in the final non-conference game of 2021.

NEXT UP: vs. Rutgers: 71st, 1.8

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 21.2, Michigan Win Probability 89%
The SP+ model is in love with the Wolverines.  So much so, that Bill Connelly trolled Michigan fans this past Sunday:

The (way too early) SP+ Resume model is also keeping Rutgers on the radar, currently ranking the Scarlet Knights’ 3-0 start as the 5th best resume to date. Look who is #2:

Michigan Offense (13th) vs. Rutgers Defense (43rd) 

Josh Gattis and the Michigan offense have rolled relentlessly right over the top of their first 3 opponents.  The offensive line is led by super-senior center Andrew Vastardis, who currently sits atop PFF’s blocking grade list for centers in all of FBS.  The Wolverines’ average Expected Points Added (EPA) per play reads an astounding 0.508, even after removing garbage time.  For context, the previous high average EPA for seasons I’ve tracked (back to 2016) was 0.209 in 2018.  In that 2018 season, the offense only eclipsed this current squad’s average EPA in two individual games: vs. WMU (0.750) and vs. Nebraska (0.633).

In 2020, Rutgers’ defense was able to bottle up the Michigan attack for the first half.  However, Cade McNamara’s entry to the game seemed to unlock the Wolverines’ offensive efficiency.  Michigan stormed back with 28 second-half points, and eventually held on in 3OT for a 48-42 victory.  The Scarlet Knights have also made the challenge harder on themselves.  News broke this week that two Rutgers’ defensive players, including starting CB Max Melton, will be suspended for at least this game. 

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Rutgers Offense (87th)

When Rutgers has the ball, defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald will prioritize stopping the Knights’ rushing attack.  While they amassed 220 yards rushing in their opening win against Temple, and another 163 yards last week vs. Delaware, Rutgers could only manage 67 rushing yards in Week 2 at Syracuse (#57 defense in SP+).  This team is not built to rely on their quarterback, Noah Vedral, and the outside receivers to put up points in bunches either.  To continue their defensive success, Michigan must limit RB Isaih Pacheco’s big play ability.   

PREDICTION:  The 2021 Michigan football team is accomplishing the objectives they have communicated since Spring Ball.  First, the offense wanted to strengthen the run game and get off to a better start in each game.  Check and check.  Second, the defense wanted to install a new system that focuses on being less predictable while maintaining their aggressive nature.  Check and check.  Jim Harbaugh and his revamped staff seem energized by the early success within their respective position groups on both sides of the ball.  The upperclassmen are leading by example on the field.  Publicly all the players have maintained focus on the big picture season goals.  The program seems to effectively prioritize improving each week.  

Good vibes have started to rumble deep within the Michigan fan base.  Many folks are still very cautiously guarding their optimism and hope because they’ve been so scalded in recent seasons.  I can understand that, but try to make sure you’re appreciating and enjoying the excellent football that these kids are playing right now.  Greg Schiano has done well to improve the Rutgers program in just over one full season, but I don’t think this is a team that can disrupt Michigan’s current avalanche of enthusiasm.
Michigan 39 Rutgers 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 33 Rutgers 24)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/19/21), 3-0

  • SP+ Overall: 6th (same), 22.4
  • SP+ Offense: 13th (same), 37.5
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (↑1), 15.6
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑3), 0.5

AP Poll: 19th (↑6), 456

Coaches’ Poll: 19th (↑6), 423

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #3
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Michigan 63 Northern Illinois 10 – Game 3 Recap

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GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 63-10, Michigan by 53 over NIU
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 36 (+17)
CD Projection: Michigan by 32 (+21)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 3 RECAP vs. Northern Illinois

No reason to over-analyze. Seems like Jim Harbaugh has the program back to the pre-pandemic standard. Michigan has taken care of business against 3 overmatched opponents. Now, the Wolverines will look to carry their momentum into the Big Ten season next weekend when they host Greg Schiano and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.

Offensively, the big question coming into this game was whether Michigan would, or could, pass the ball effective coming off a 44-yard performance last week vs. Washington. Even though the game plan stayed heavy on the run game, both Cade McNamara (8-11 for 191 yards) and J.J. McCarthy (4-6 for 42 yards) were able to get live reps in this one.

The offensive line was absolutely dominant for the third consecutive week. Michigan combined for 373 rushing yards, and spread the love relatively evenly. Blake Corum led the way again with 125 yards and 3 TDs, including a 52-yard race along the sideline. Hassan Haskins did his part for the Boom & Zoom duo by setting up that 52-yarder with physical runs of 4 & 15 yards on the first two snaps of the drive. Corum took the third snap to the house.

Early in this game, there was some interesting cat & mouse between coordinators. Once Mike MacDonald effectively countered NIU’s initial play script, the Wolverines effectively clamped down for the final 3 quarters. Josh Ross let the unit with 6 tackles on the day. Gemon Green chipped in by picking off a tipped pass and returning it to the NIU 3 yard line to set up a short touchdown drive.

The top-line special teams summary goes like this: punter Brad Robbins successfully held the ball 9 times for PAT kicks, and was not asked to punt once.

In the return game, we saw A.J. Henning’s explosiveness, and his ceiling for making big plays is exciting. However, he was pulled after failing to catch a punt in the 2nd half, and Andrel Anthony was given the last few opportunities. Henning looked good, but needs to continue working on reading the ball as it goes into the air so he can get to the spot and make the catch. Onward!

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By the Numbers: Game 3 vs. Northern Illinois

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LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan steamrolled a Washington team who was searching for answers.  The Wolverines rolled up 343 rushing yards on the way to a 31-10 victory that had a vintage Harbaugh feel.

NEXT UP: vs. NIU: 108th, -10.4

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 35.9, Michigan Win Probability 95%

The SP+ model continues to love what Michigan is doing.  The Wolverines again moved up in the SP+ rankings to 6th overall.  NIU has been pretty static in the rankings, but they are a rollercoaster on the field.   The Huskies upset #66 Georgia Tech in Week 1, then lost at home to #88 Wyoming.

Michigan Offense (13th) vs. NIU Defense (97th) 

We used our recap podcast to discuss the worry emanating from Michigan fans about the pass offense after the Washington game.  I warned folks there, and I’ll warn everyone again here: the Wolverines might hand the ball off 40-50 times again in this game.  I do agree it would be nice for Michigan to get game speed reps for Cade McNamara to read the Huskies’ defense and work on his anticipation & improving the timing of his delivery.  It would also be great to see J.J. McCarthy and Donovan Edwards inserted into the game with the starters as early as possible, just as they were as the WMU game reached a 26-point lead.  However, these are nice-to-haves.  It is irrational to melt down if we see another ground & pound blowout over a MAC school.    

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. NIU Offense (108th)

There is one very clear difference between Mike MacDonald and his predecessor Don Brown that we don’t hear enough about.  MacDonald and the defensive staff clearly believe in the value of game experience for younger players down the depth chart.  I did a small double take when I saw both Junior Colson and Rod Moore on the field during the 1st Quarter of the Washington game with a 3-0 score.  We should really see a lot of unfamiliar faces in this one.  I do believe SP+ is underrating the NIU offense a little bit after they put up 395 total yards, including 191 yards on the ground, versus Wyoming last week.  Still, anything but utter domination and the bench emptying will be a disappointment.

PREDICTION: This is a ripe opportunity for an underwhelming hangover performance coming off last week’s Maize Out night game victory.  We are hearing the right coach speak about “…not falling in love with our stuff,” from Jim Harbaugh.  The players have reiterated “…we haven’t done anything yet,” when they are in front of the media.  We’ll see if the captains and other player leaders can actually turn those clichés into focus and enthusiasm right away, or if there is a sleepy start to this game.  One potential smelling salt for the Wolverines: the NIU quarterback is Rocky Lombardi.  He has some very valuable and recent experience catching Michigan asleep in the Big House.
Michigan 45 NIU 13 (PRESEASON Michigan 45 NIU 17)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/12/21), 2-0

  • SP+ Overall: 6th (↑1), 22.1
  • SP+ Offense: 13th (↑1), 37.3
  • SP+ Defense: 9th (↑1), 15.5
  • SP+ Special Teams: 5th (↑6), 0.2

AP Poll: 25th (NR), 163

Coaches’ Poll: 25th (NR), 180

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #2