Category: SP+

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Michigan 63 Central Michigan 3 – Game 3 Recap

GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 63-3, Michigan by 60 over Central Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 31.7 (+28.3)
CD Projection: Michigan by 20 (+40)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 3 RECAP vs. Central Michigan

Question marks surrounded the offensive unit coming into today’s matchup with the Chippewas. Bryce Underwood and Chip Lindsey smashed all those question marks and reinvigorated the Michigan fan base’s confidence. A 58% success rate and 9.1 yards per play, with garbage time removed, will be good enough to beat almost anyone. Underwood made a few mistakes, but looked sharp as he threw for 235 yards. Even more exciting was Bryce’s ability to pull the ball down and scramble for big conversions. Underwood added 114 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns to the team rushing total of 381 yards. Four different running backs scored touchdowns, and freshman Andrew Marsh added another on an end around. This was a text book get-right game, and the Wolverines needed it.

The defensive performance was even more refreshing for me. We saw the 2024 defense dominate games down the stretch, but in the early season they could not dominate any team for any stretch of time. Today, the Michigan defense was unbelievable. Central Michigan managed just 139 total yards and a 25% success rate. The Chips actually spent most of the first half below zero in the total yards column. Jayshawn Barham looked absolutely devastating for the entire first half, but also causes the most concern as he left just after halftime with an apparent shoulder injury.

If the Wolverines have any major flaw right now, it’s consistency on special teams. Shockingly, Dominic Zvada missed another field goal today, although a 47-yard attempt is no chip shot. Michigan also looks discombobulated on punt return. Semaj Morgan is still not getting a good read on the ball and has to make tough running catches. On one particular adventure today, Morgan was tackled accidentally by one of his blockers.

In the grand scheme of this season, today was a really good day. Bryce Underwood looked in control of the entire offense, and used the whole field. Chip Lindsey demonstrated that he will attack vertically, and will do it early. The defense was physical, and dominated the line of scrimmage while many young depth players got to rotate in the back seven. The B1G season kicks off on the road without Sherrone Moore next week in Lincoln, Nebraska so the Wolverines have to keep stacking good days for the whole week. Onward!

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Michigan 34 New Mexico 17 – Game 1 Recap

GAME 1 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 34-17, Michigan by 17 over New Mexico
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 42 (-25)
CD Projection: Michigan by 28 (-11)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 1 RECAP vs. New Mexico

That was a very effective first outing for the Michigan newcomers. Bryce Underwood went 21-31 (68%) for 251 yards, 1 touchdown, and no interceptions. Justice Haynes was the star carrying 16 times for 159 yards and 3 touchdowns. All of this with new Offensive Coordinator Chip Lindsey prioritizing balance. The Wolverines actually called more pass plays than run plays in a victory for the first time in a long while. The jury is still out on Michigan’s offensive line. They didn’t have any major gaffes that I picked up on first watch. However, Michigan also had a huge size advantage over the Lobos that never got fully exploited either.

Defensively, we knew the Wolverines would try to get a lot of snaps for a lot of guys. Michigan succeeded there, with at least 8 defensive linemen getting meaningful snaps, and 5 or 6 different defensive backs also rotating in. While New Mexico was able to connect on short passes in front of Michigan’s coverage, the Wolverines tackled well and kept those plays to short gains. The second half targeting call on Jayshawn Barham’s sack really swung the momentum in the building. And, he will have to miss the start of next week’s road game against Oklahoma. The Wolverines’ strength on defense is depth, and we’ll need to see some other playmakers step up next week to fill the void left by Barham.

Dominic Zvada is a special teams superstar, even though the Wolverines didn’t need his heroics today. That’s about the end of my positivity for the special teams units. Semaj Morgan muffed a tough punt catch on the run giving me shades of the Rose Bowl issues. He let most of the remaining punts bounce the rest of the game. Freshman wide receiver Andrew Marsh was stripped on a kick return for a costly turnover that handed New Mexico 3 points directly. Hudson Hollenbeck had his best punt on his last with a 44-yard fair catch. His longest punt was a touchback that netted just 32 yards after a conservative 4th & 1 decision by Sherrone Moore. This phase of the game has to take a few big steps forward for Michigan to play championship level football in 2025.

On the whole, Michigan checked most of the boxes next to their biggest question marks. The moment never got too big for Bryce Underwood tonight. Now we’ll see if he can translate that cool demeanor to a hostile road environment at night. Chip Lindsey showed that he will threaten the entire field through the air, which help create running lanes for Justice Haynes. Michigan showed they can create havoc and pass rush with any personnel combo on the field, which bodes well for keeping your playmakers fresh for big defensive snaps in the 2nd half of games. Onward!

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Michigan 13 Ohio State 10 – Game 12 Recap

GAME 12 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 13-10, Michigan by 3 over Ohio State
SP+ Projection: Ohio State by 20.5 (+23.5)
CD Projection: Ohio State by 11 (+14)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 12 RECAP @ Ohio State

See?! I am not crazy! Michigan’s best version in 2024 is a ball control, time of possession, field position strategy! They just saved it for The Game and sacrificed at least 2-3 losses in the regular season to trap Ryan Day!

In all seriousness, this had to be the plan all along, especially once Michigan learned Colston Loveland was unavailable. Kalel Mullings carried the Wolverines on his back again, rushing 32 times for 116 yards and Michigan’s only touchdown. His greatest moment, however, came on a 3rd & 6 in the 4th quarter. Mullings broke a tackle at the line of scrimmage and bounced outside for a 27-yard gallup that ensured Michigan was in field goal range in a tied game.

For the fourth consecutive year, it’s a struggle to determine how much of Michigan’s defensive success is a maize-and-blue masterpiece, and how much is a scarlet-and-grey conundrum. Somehow, Wink Martindale was able to remove Jeremiah Smith from the menu in the 2nd half. Ryan Day was determined to prove the Buckeyes were tougher on the ground this year. Turns out he was wrong…again. Ohio State only mustered 77 rushing yards on 26 attempts, a pitiful 3.0 yard per rush.

After an atrocious 33-yard punt by Tommy Doman to start the day for special teams, Dominic Zvada cashed in a 54-yard field goal, and cooly nailed the 21-yard nail in the coffin with under a minute on the clock. Just like all the Wolverines, Doman had to show some toughness and bounce back. He uncorked a critical 68-yard punt and roll in the 2nd quarter, and finished with a respectable 47.3 yard average.

What a month for Sherrone Moore and the Michigan Wolverines. There seems to be some major changes related to personnel management and recruiting within the program. But other things remain constant. This Michigan team didn’t flinch in the moment, even when it was infuriatingly bleak. When all the chips were on the table, Ryan Day and his “National Title or Bust” Buckeyes were not tough enough to make the critical plays in November. Both programs now find themselves at very different crossroads, with Michigan riding the wave of four straight victories over Ohio State into 2025. SMASH!

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Michigan 50 Northwestern 6 – Game 11 Recap

GAME 11 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 50-6, Michigan by 44 over Northwestern
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 15.2 (+28.8)
CD Projection: Michigan by 11 (+33)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 11 RECAP vs. Northwestern

What an explosion from the offense! It is a much needed sigh of relief for the players and the staff to see a solid game plan get executed well for four full quarters. The Wolverines were led by their best offensive player, Kalel Mullings, with three touchdowns on the ground. Davis Warren was 26-for-36 for 195 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Most importantly, 11 different players were targeted. Kirk Campbell was able to diversify, and it paid dividends immediately. It’s also poetic that both Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards scored touchdowns on their final carry in the Big House, a well-deserved honor bestowed upon two great Michigan Men!

The Wildcats were unable to block the Michigan front, and that was the end of that. With sacks removed, Northwestern only mustered 45 rushing yards, with most of those coming during garbage time in the 4th quarter. For much of the game, they had negative yards rushing. Michigan’s coverage did allow a few explosive plays, especially in the middle of the field in the second half. But, in another positive sign of growth, they adjusted and eventually collected a 2nd interception on a 4th down pass. Josiah Stewart had two sacks, and Kenneth Grant added another.

Dominic Zvada was excellent on all his kicks. He is a major weapon for the offense because he can hit from long range in cold weather. Tommy Doman only had one decent 48-yard punt, but Michigan allowed a good return to cut the net to 21 yards. Tyler Morris did a much better job catching the punts in the air after an early roller pinned Michigan back at their own 3 yard line.

I am very satisfied that Michigan had their best performance of the season in their final game in the Big House. The crowd brought a surprisingly high level of energy, and stuck around well into Garbage Time. We all deserved to celebrate being together in Ann Arbor one last time in 2024, and this team deserved to end the home season on a high note. Next up: a battle with the Buckeyes for Ryan Day’s job. SMASH!

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Michigan 17 Oregon 38 – Game 9 Recap

GAME 9 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 17-38, Oregon by 21 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Oregon by 12.5 (-8.5)
CD Projection: Oregon by 11 (-10)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 9 RECAP vs. Oregon

This offensive unit is remarkably consistent, but not necessarily in a great way. In almost every game, when I come back to the stats for the recap, the offense has put up between 260 and 290 yards of total offense. They show flashes of competence, but can’t string good plays together because of big misses on the offensive line, or turnovers. Today it was the offensive line. The Wolverines only managed 3.8 yards per rush attempt, and a 25% success rate on called run plays. That just won’t get it done for a team with a SMASH identity.

The biggest problem for Michigan on defense today came out in the injury report. Not only were the Wolverines missing All American cornerback Will Johnson, but also up and coming cornerback Jayaire Hill. That made for a really tough match up against an Oregon Ducks’ offense who wants to get the ball to fast playmakers on the edge, and challenge the DBs to tackle. In an alternate universe where Michigan pulls an upset, they would have forced multiple turnovers, or at least forced more than 1 FG attempt on scoring opportunities. That’s a really negative outlook, but that doesn’t match the guts the shorthanded defense showed. The defense gave Michigan a chance to climb back into the game in the 4th quarter, but they just couldn’t execute in the biggest moments.

The special teams units performed just fine today. There were no major mistakes, and they created the game’s only turnover. That big swing play led to Michigan’s first touchdown on a 28-yard field. Tommy Doman notably bounced back. Each of his punts were 45+ yards of carry, or were downed inside the 15 yard line.

I am a die hard fan, so the theme of the 2024 season is dying hard. I see a lot of small things that I am happy about, and I’m for sure proud that this team fights to the final whistle. But, I am not a Pollyanna either. Coming off a National Title, I expected this team to be pushing for a B1G Championship Game berth. Now, we’re going to have to settle for a fight for bowl eligibility and extended practices into December. This team will have a chance in every game, even the biggest game at the end of the season though, so don’t tune out completely. Go BLUE!