Tune into the latest podcast as @pcallihan and @Clint_Derringer break down Michigan’s thrilling 27-24 victory over USC, spotlighting Kalel Mullings’ explosive 63-yard run to setup the game winning touchdown and Will Johnson’s electric pick-six. While USC coach Lincoln Riley blamed big plays for their loss, Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore credited the team’s unity and run-first strategy. Clint called out the offensive coaching staff to better utilize their best players. With an electric game-day atmosphere and standout performances on defense, this episode dives into the team’s resilience and looks ahead to continued success.
Tune in for expert insights and analysis—don’t miss out!
Well, there’s no rest for the weary. Just a few days after defeating USC, the Wolverines face the reality of battling for the Little Brown Jug. Minnesota will be hungry after losing to Iowa, so our guys will really have to get after those “Fleckers!”
The first installment of this series looking at the Little Brown Jug rivalry illustrates the fact that you can’t underestimate any opponent. The 2005 Wolverines felt confident entering their game against Minnesota. On paper, the Wolverines could match up with anyone, but their performance seldom lived up to their potential.
It started off like so many other games. Garrett Rivas made a 23-yard field goal in the first quarter, and the Wolverines were ready to take charge. The only problem was, they never completely took control of the game. Still, after a Minnesota field goal tied the game at 13 apiece in the third quarter, the Wolverines grabbed the lead right back when Steve Breaston zigged and zagged his way to a 95-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to give Michigan a 20-13 advantage. Unfortunately, the score occurred so quickly that the defense got virtually no rest, and it showed as Minnesota tied the game on the ensuing drive.
Michigan still had some chances, but a pall settled over Michigan Stadium when Rivas pulled a pair of field goal attempts wide left. Late in the game, Minnesota faced a 3rd down and 10 yards to go when Laurence Maroney swept around the right end and ran 60 yards to give the Golden Gophers a first down at the Michigan 15-yard line. With one second to go, Jason Giannini kicked a 30-yard field goal to give Minnesota a 23-20 win. The game exemplified Michigan’s season in a microcosm. The Wolverines finished the season with a record of 7 wins and 5 losses, falling to Nebraska in the Alamo Bowl.
Many thanks to YouTube and YouTube poster RXwolverine for the video of this episode of “Michigan Replay.” As always, we own nothing, and this blog post is provided strictly for the enjoyment of readers.
Final Score: 27-24, Michigan by 3 over USC SP+ Projection: Michigan by 3.9 (-0.9) CD Projection: USC by 4 (+7)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 4 RECAP vs. USC
To make a classic football game, both sides have to have a legit chance to win. USC played a whale of a game on the road to put themselves in position to win. Lincoln Riley vs. Wink Martindale was like Ali vs. Frazier. Unfortunately, the offense played the role of Achilles’ heel. The Wolverines only mustered 32 yards passing on 12 attempts. But, the offense was able to put 21 points on the board (defense scored 6) because they committed to their smash identity. One critical result here is buying more time for Kirk Campbell to figure out how to create more balance with scripted plays & high percentage throws. Kalel Mullings should get at least one week of Campbell’s salary. Mullings rushed 17 times for 159 yards and two touchdowns, including a 4th down, game-on-the-line smash that should go into Wolverines’ lore forever.
Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale had a proverbial gauntlet laid down after Texas romped over Michigan in the Big House. He had to simplify enough to let these college kids play fast, without too much thinking. At the same time, he had to keep enough variability to match wits with offensive wizard Lincoln Riley coming off a bye. This afternoon was a resoundingly successful proof of concept for the ol’ NFL coordinator. The Trojans started the third quarter with an impressive 75-yard touchdown drive. Outside of that drive, the wins for USC were more flashes in the pan. By the end, Miller Moss was seeing ghosts, and hearing footsteps when it mattered the most in he fourth quarter. Will Johnson cemented his big play legacy when he set a Michigan record with his third career pick-six, but left the game early for an unknown reason.
We now know that the Michigan kicker, Dominic Zvada, is human. He clunked a PAT low enough to get blocked. That missing pointt gave USC an opportunity to tie the game with a field goal at the end. However, his boy Tommy Doman stepped in and carried the kicking game. Doman averaged 47.9 yards per punt on seven punts. The first half field position advantage led directly to the Wolverines’ 14-3 half time lead.
Live during the game, I noted that Michigan was approximately 70/30 run plays and USC was 70/30 pass plays. This sparked my memory of Jim Harbaugh’s quip about George Patton getting it done on the ground, and Neil Armstrong getting it done through the air. While both sides left it all out there, the astronaut’s offense from California couldn’t outlast Patton’s barrage on the ground. Smash!
Michigan handled their business early, but still didn’t look sharp in the passing game. The Wolverines overcame 3 interceptions and a -2 turnover margin to defeat the Arkansas State Red Wolves 28-18.
NEXT UP: vs. USC: SP+ 17th, 16.0
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 3.9, Michigan Win Probability 60%
The SP+ model is blind to the QB switch to Alex Orji. We shall see if the offense ticks up from 57th nationally with the added dimension to the run game. USC meanwhile is climbing as a defense, but with only two games of data to add atop their preseason ranking.
Michigan Offense (57th) vs. USC Defense (70th)
The switch to Orji as the starting quarterback will get the majority of media attention. But, the real test is how much continued improvement we see from the offensive line. LT Myles Hinton has been good, but nobody else up front has stood out for positive performance. At a minimum, this unit needs to clean up the mental mistakes. For the Wolverines to be successful, they need to be successful on standard downs, especially 1st & 10. Consistently putting 2nd & 5, or 3rd & 1 in front of Alex Orji will allow coordinator Kirk Campbell to utilize any page from the playbook that they’ve installed.
Michigan Defense (4th) vs. USC Offense (4th)
Very similarly to the Texas matchup, this is strength-on-strength. Lincoln Riley knows how to maximize his QB’s talent. Miller Moss is not a serious run threat, but they will look to pick on the linebackers with RPO’s, as well as attacking Jayaire Hill down the field. Wink Martindale showed that he can turn the dial down last week versus Arkansas State. Early in this game, we want to see Michigan hang back and force USC to hand he ball off into light boxes. The Wolverines’ defensive line should be able to win one-on-one matchups inside, allowing the linebackers to stay in passing lanes.
PREDICTION: Michigan needs their best performance of the season to beat the Trojans. There are a handful of 50/50 what-if matchups, and I think Michigan needs to win three or four of those coin flips. We need Orji to threaten the safeties with his legs (good blocking) and with his arm (stretching deep when they creep forward). We also need to move the chains consistently enough that USC is forced to drive 70+ yards on each of their possessions. Keep the game close, and look to wear the Trojans down in the 4th quarter.
More bad news for Michigan as we hear that tight end Coleston Loveland will be sidelined with a shoulder injury. This puts more pressure on Kirk Campbell to scheme up plays that will give Alex Orji a chance to hit an open receiver. When in doubt, pull the ball down and run! It just feels like there may be too many what-ifs for Michigan to overcome. Michigan 20 USC 24 (PRESEASON Michigan 27 USC 10)
