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Season Football Predictions-- Drew Montag

Yeah, it’s me, the “basketball guy”, back for more.  It’s time for my annual attempt to predict how the University of Michigan’s football season is going to go.

I am very proud of my predictions for last season: I got all 12 games right (10-2 overall, 7-2 in the Big Ten), and I even predicted the correct bowl game scenario (no Big Ten Championship game, but a “New Year’s Six” bowl game).  It’s the best I’ve ever done at predicting a football season.

This season, I’m feeling about the same level of optimism.  There were a lot of graduations and departures to the NFL, but there’s a lot of talent coming back.  It just might take some time to get everything squared away.  

There are four games that stand out this season, and only one of them is at home: Florida (in Arlington, TX), at Penn State, at Wisconsin, and home vs. Ohio State.  I’m always worried about the first game of the season, especially if it’s on the road, so I’m picking the Florida game as a loss.  We beat Penn State (handily) and Wisconsin (barely) in Ann Arbor last season, but it’ll be a lot tougher on the road.  I’m picking a split (beat Penn State, lose to Wisconsin).  That leaves our arch-rival, Ohio State.  We got really close last season, and we probably would have won the game with some better officiating on the crucial 4th down spot in overtime, but that’s water under the bridge.  I’m going to go out on a limb and pick Michigan to finally beat OSU this season.  

The other 8 games look pretty straightforward, including our other arch-rival (Michigan State), which leaves Michigan with a final regular season record of 10-2 again, but 8-1 in the Big Ten, which might just get us into the Big Ten Championship game.  Win that, and we might be looking at the College Football Playoff.  If not, we’re still looking at a “New Year’s Six” bowl game again.

http://umgoblue.com/index.php/2017/08/2017-university-michigan-football-season-predictions/

Comments

  • If UM beats Penn State, tOSU and Sparty and only loses one conference game (to a team in the West), they WILL be in the B1G championship game, won't they?  No one would hold a tie-breaker over them in the East.
  • I think the Penn State game is not only the biggest game, but the biggest game period in the big ten because it may settle everything....

    1) A Psu victory gives Michigan a loss

    2) Osu will slash them the next week, giving psu a loss


    3) Then psu and Michigan have one loss a piece, so osu has to lose TWO conference game there after, with psu or Michigan staying perfect, or that is all she wrote....
  • I don't think PSU will make it through the B1G with just one loss.  

    Also, don't forget the game in Madison with Wisconsin.  That will not be an easy game by any stretch.  

    How would the tie-breaker work if PSU beat Michigan, OSU beat PSU and Michigan beat OSU and those were the only losses by each of those teams?


  • edited August 18
    The Big Ten football championship will be decided by a game played between the two division champions.  A team or teams that are not eligible to participate in a postseason football bowl game as a result of NCAA and/or Big Ten sanctions shall not be eligible to participate in the Big Ten Football Championship Game.  The winner of the Big Ten Football Championship Game will represent the conference in one of the bowls that comprise the College Football Playoff - the Cotton, Fiesta, Peach, Orange, Rose or Sugar Bowl. If the Big Ten Champion is ranked No. 1, 2, 3 or 4 in the final College Football Playoff poll, the team will play in a semifinal game. Otherwise, the Big Ten Champion will play in the Rose Bowl Game (when not hosting a semifinal) or the Cotton, Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

    The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:
    (a)    If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
    (b)    If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 6 will be followed until a determination is made.  If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
    1.    The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.
    2.    The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division.
    3.    The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).
    4.    The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.
    5.    The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
    6.    The representative will be chosen by random draw.

    If one or both of the Big Ten division champions is ineligible to play in the Big Ten Championship Game, then the participant(s) in the Big Ten Championship Game shall be determined by the following procedure:
    a)    If the ineligible team is tied for the division championship, then the team it tied with shall be the Big Ten Championship Game representative.
    b)    If two or more teams are tied with an ineligible team for the division championship, then the ineligible team is removed and the remaining teams revert to the tie-break procedure.
    c)    The division runner-up shall be the Big Ten Championship Game representative.
    d)    If there is a division runner-up tie, then the tied teams shall revert to the tie-break procedure.

    If the championship game cannot be played (due to any reason beyond the control of the Big Ten Conference), the two division champions (using divisional tie-breakers as set forth above) shall be declared co-champions and the following procedure will be used to determine the Big Ten Conference representative to the College Football Playoff:
    a)    Teams ranked No. 1, 2, 3 or 4 in the final College Football Playoff poll will automatically be placed in the College Football Playoff.
    b)    If the two divisional representatives met previously in the season and neither is ranked No. 1, 2, 3 or 4 in the final College Football Playoff poll, the team ranked highest in the final poll shall be the representative to the College Football Playoff, unless the other team is ranked within five or fewer places of the higher ranked team.  In this case, the head-to-head results of the two teams shall determine the conference's representative.
    c)    If the two divisional representatives did not meet previously during the season, the team ranked highest in the College Football Playoff poll shall be the representative.
    d)    If the two teams are tied in the College Football Playoff poll, the team with the best overall Big Ten record shall be the representative.
    e)    If the two teams remain tied after d), the team with the best combined record of the tied teams against all common Big Ten opponents each team played that season shall be the representative.
    f)    If the two teams remain tied after e), the representative will be the team with the best overall winning percentage.
    g)    If the two teams remain tied after f), the representative will be the team furthest removed from College Football Playoff, Bowl Championships Series or Rose Bowl Game participation (as appropriate).
    h)    If the two teams remain tied after g), the representative shall be determined by a random draw.

    http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/archive/081011aaa.html

  • Thanks Phil. I think I'll go split the atom-it'll be easier. ;)
  • TK23Blue said:
    Thanks Phil. I think I'll go split the atom-it'll be easier. ;)
    No kidding-  I hate divisions :(
  • If Michigan beats florida....9-3 if not....8-4
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