On expectations...

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scmgoblue

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On expectations... Tuesday, May 06, 2014 11:56 AM (permalink)
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So catching up on threads (I know it's been a while since I've been posting regularly), there seems to be this trend regarding expectations and a "HOW DARE WE" type of attitude that I simply do not understand.  It becomes unendingly tiresome to try to discuss issues on the team and the upcoming season only to have to wade into the same back and forth about how we have become "happy" with mediocrity because we don't "expect" X number of wins from this program and that Hoke should be fired with anything less than X.  I find few things more frustrating than debating with someone who wants the same thing we all do but refuses to acknowledges factors and circumstances of the situation that affect the way things occur.  We all want Michigan to win, lots, tons even, we are Michigan fans.  Losing sucks, it's frustrating, it's emotionally tiring.  I think we can all agree on that.  So why is it that every discussion of the offense, the defense, and the upcoming season always ends up centering on some debate regarding what "proper" expectations are because "This is Michigan"?
 
In essence, here's my stance:
 
1. We were in a cavernous hole from a program standpoint when we hired Hoke.  There are a great deal of metrics available that will make this point for me, so I will save space by not pasting them all here.  Quick easy one?  Take a look at the 2010 and 2011 recruiting classes and see how many of those folks are on the roster still or have contributed meaningful time...
 
2. Progress matters, I don't think firing someone who's showing momentum for the program makes any sense, period.  This staff took over a defense that was one of the worst in history and made it a top 20 unit, then in 2012 turned it into a top 15 unit.  It took a step back last year to 41st with no presence on the defensive line and handcuffed to the offense that we all saw, but to think that because of the team's record that this team isn't making steps is just wrong.  Yes the offense was catastrophic last year.  If we wade through game threads I will guarantee that the "fire Borges" quotient of each loss was off the charts... we fired Borges, and yet the same people who clamoring for him to go act as if literally nothing has been done with this football team for three years except a staff intent on driving it into the ground.  I do not understand this view.
 
3. Strictly measuring by rivals makes no sense.  Yes I want to beat Ohio and Sparty and Notre Dame, etc.  Newsflash, they've been better football teams than us recently.  Ohio is coming off a 24 game winning streak.  Michigan State just won the Rose Bowl.  While I cheer my tail off for my team, objectively, it's not all that hard to take a look at our roster and where we are at then compare it to their rosters and understand why we've struggled over the past several years against these programs, again, see point #1.  Hoke is 2-4 against Sparty and Ohio, 4-5 when you toss in ND.  Not exactly the burning tire-fire that many proclaim given the situation of the program, which leads me to:
 
4. There needs to be an immediate realization of exactly where this program stands right now.  I'm as much of an enthusiast for the storied tradition and past glories and success of this program as anyone I assure you, but the simple fact is we are not those football teams right now, the "this is Michigan" argument doesn't mean JACK on the football field.  It takes more than just a coaching change to return to that level, it takes a process, it takes years of recruiting and development.  More on this in a minute.
 
5. Do NOT confuse "realistic expectations" with "pleased with reality as it stands today".  This is it in a nutshell.  Realistic expectations of a football team with no experience on the OL and no rushing game to speak of last year weren't close to what people wanted, realistic expectations of how a fatally flawed football team performs against more experienced rivals aren't what fans want either.  It doesn't make the person discussing them less of a fan or somehow "accepting" of a "lower standard".  I don't particularly care about the details of how we arrived here, they are relatively valueless in that we are here and this what we have to deal with: 3-9, 5-7, 7-6, 11-2, 8-5, and 7-6
That's six years with a record of 41-36 folks.  I hate that number, I hate that we aren't playing in the B1G title game and going out to Pasadena so I can complain endlessly about how stupid it is that USC gets to play in their own backyard for the Rose Bowl.  I desperately want us to be back in that position again, I want it to happen quickly, but that does NOT mean that I blind myself to the realities this team and this staff face, they are significant and they are not something that are fixed overnight with a change here or there.  
 
I don't know, have I lost it?  Let me know.
What the mind can conceive, the mind can achieve; and those who stay will be Champions. 
 
GO BLUE!
 
#1
MichFan4Life

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Re:On expectations... Tuesday, May 06, 2014 1:25 PM (permalink)
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Here would be my question. How long should we reasonably expect to be behind Michigan State, ND, and Ohio? 2 of the whom we've out recruited over the last 3 years.
 
I agree we shouldn't expect wins just because, but when you take into account the shape of the Big 10 overall (the worst it's been in 30 years) combined with the relative talent vs. the teams on our schedule I can't help but consider us in an unacceptable hole.
 
Most importantly as I've said in other threads, looking at this team entering year four I don't feel as though significant, on field progress has been made toward making us a championship level team. I can't say with any level of confidence that I expect to win the conference championship or compete for the national championship in the very near future.
 
4 years in that's a problem IMO. 4 years isn't overnight, talking about going through multiple recruiting classes if we get into years 5, 6, and 7.
<message edited by MichFan4Life on Tuesday, May 06, 2014 3:11 PM>
 
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#2
BigHouseFootball

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Re:On expectations... Tuesday, May 06, 2014 3:34 PM (permalink)
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Oh scmgoblue how I have missed you and your level-headedness. Stick around.

Bottom line Hoke needs a solid record this year but he will get a 5th year (unless the bottom falls out) for two reasons 1. He is Brandon's guy, and 2. Brandon realizes the gigantic crater RR left on the program.
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#3
zjgm02

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Re:On expectations... Tuesday, May 06, 2014 4:08 PM (permalink)
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scmgoblue


So catching up on threads (I know it's been a while since I've been posting regularly), there seems to be this trend regarding expectations and a "HOW DARE WE" type of attitude that I simply do not understand.  It becomes unendingly tiresome to try to discuss issues on the team and the upcoming season only to have to wade into the same back and forth about how we have become "happy" with mediocrity because we don't "expect" X number of wins from this program and that Hoke should be fired with anything less than X.  I find few things more frustrating than debating with someone who wants the same thing we all do but refuses to acknowledges factors and circumstances of the situation that affect the way things occur.  We all want Michigan to win, lots, tons even, we are Michigan fans.  Losing sucks, it's frustrating, it's emotionally tiring.  I think we can all agree on that.  So why is it that every discussion of the offense, the defense, and the upcoming season always ends up centering on some debate regarding what "proper" expectations are because "This is Michigan"?

In essence, here's my stance:

1. We were in a cavernous hole from a program standpoint when we hired Hoke.  There are a great deal of metrics available that will make this point for me, so I will save space by not pasting them all here.  Quick easy one?  Take a look at the 2010 and 2011 recruiting classes and see how many of those folks are on the roster still or have contributed meaningful time...

2. Progress matters, I don't think firing someone who's showing momentum for the program makes any sense, period.  This staff took over a defense that was one of the worst in history and made it a top 20 unit, then in 2012 turned it into a top 15 unit.  It took a step back last year to 41st with no presence on the defensive line and handcuffed to the offense that we all saw, but to think that because of the team's record that this team isn't making steps is just wrong.  Yes the offense was catastrophic last year.  If we wade through game threads I will guarantee that the "fire Borges" quotient of each loss was off the charts... we fired Borges, and yet the same people who clamoring for him to go act as if literally nothing has been done with this football team for three years except a staff intent on driving it into the ground.  I do not understand this view.

3. Strictly measuring by rivals makes no sense.  Yes I want to beat Ohio and Sparty and Notre Dame, etc.  Newsflash, they've been better football teams than us recently.  Ohio is coming off a 24 game winning streak.  Michigan State just won the Rose Bowl.  While I cheer my tail off for my team, objectively, it's not all that hard to take a look at our roster and where we are at then compare it to their rosters and understand why we've struggled over the past several years against these programs, again, see point #1.  Hoke is 2-4 against Sparty and Ohio, 4-5 when you toss in ND.  Not exactly the burning tire-fire that many proclaim given the situation of the program, which leads me to:

4. There needs to be an immediate realization of exactly where this program stands right now.  I'm as much of an enthusiast for the storied tradition and past glories and success of this program as anyone I assure you, but the simple fact is we are not those football teams right now, the "this is Michigan" argument doesn't mean JACK on the football field.  It takes more than just a coaching change to return to that level, it takes a process, it takes years of recruiting and development.  More on this in a minute.

5. Do NOT confuse "realistic expectations" with "pleased with reality as it stands today".  This is it in a nutshell.  Realistic expectations of a football team with no experience on the OL and no rushing game to speak of last year weren't close to what people wanted, realistic expectations of how a fatally flawed football team performs against more experienced rivals aren't what fans want either.  It doesn't make the person discussing them less of a fan or somehow "accepting" of a "lower standard".  I don't particularly care about the details of how we arrived here, they are relatively valueless in that we are here and this what we have to deal with: 3-9, 5-7, 7-6, 11-2, 8-5, and 7-6
That's six years with a record of 41-36 folks.  I hate that number, I hate that we aren't playing in the B1G title game and going out to Pasadena so I can complain endlessly about how stupid it is that USC gets to play in their own backyard for the Rose Bowl.  I desperately want us to be back in that position again, I want it to happen quickly, but that does NOT mean that I blind myself to the realities this team and this staff face, they are significant and they are not something that are fixed overnight with a change here or there.  

I don't know, have I lost it?  Let me know.

Apparently, you spent much of your time away working on your condescension skills because they appear to be off the charts now.
 
#4
WolvyMike

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Re:On expectations... Tuesday, May 06, 2014 4:18 PM (permalink)
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Pizza Man will give him a long leash because he doesn't want to look like a bigger idiot for the flubbed hire in the first place.
 
 
 

 
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ScottsdaleBlue

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Re:On expectations... Tuesday, May 06, 2014 4:51 PM (permalink)
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If Hoke fails…it makes DB look bad so he’s going to give him every opportunity to succeed at Michigan (and that’s probably why we saw so many coaching changes this off-season). Hoke at best has been a .500 coach at Michigan (and everywhere for that matter). That 11-2 season was a couple hail mary’s away from being 8-5. If he doesn’t get himself to somewhere in the 9/10/11 win range over the next couple years and start developing players….Brandon will fire his ass.

Go Blue!!

Ohio St.'s actions are not unlike their lower intestine: stinky and loaded with danger.

 
#6
WolvyMike

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Re:On expectations... Tuesday, May 06, 2014 6:03 PM (permalink)
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someone posed the question to me, what if he went 10-2, but lost to sparty and osu, would you want him fired?
 
 
That's such a tough question because I'm so sick of losing to those two schools, but I think a lot of programs out there would love to have 10 win seasons. 
 
 
IMO, losing to both those schools is a failure of a season.

 
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ScottsdaleBlue

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Re:On expectations... Tuesday, May 06, 2014 6:29 PM (permalink)
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WolvyMike


someone posed the question to me, what if he went 10-2, but lost to sparty and osu, would you want him fired?


That's such a tough question because I'm so sick of losing to those two schools, but I think a lot of programs out there would love to have 10 win seasons. 


IMO, losing to both those schools is a failure of a season.


I think that is exactly what scmgoblue is talking about. If you asked people to rank those 3 teams, how many would have Michigan anywhere but #3. Therefore, the expectation is that we should lose those games. And if that is the expectation, but we win the rest of our games, would that be considered a successful season?

Go Blue!!

Ohio St.'s actions are not unlike their lower intestine: stinky and loaded with danger.

 
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MichFan4Life

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Re:On expectations... Tuesday, May 06, 2014 7:24 PM (permalink)
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ScottsdaleBlue


WolvyMike


someone posed the question to me, what if he went 10-2, but lost to sparty and osu, would you want him fired?


That's such a tough question because I'm so sick of losing to those two schools, but I think a lot of programs out there would love to have 10 win seasons. 


IMO, losing to both those schools is a failure of a season.


I think that is exactly what scmgoblue is talking about. If you asked people to rank those 3 teams, how many would have Michigan anywhere but #3. Therefore, the expectation is that we should lose those games. And if that is the expectation, but we win the rest of our games, would that be considered a successful season?

Go Blue!!

"Anything less than the Big 10 championship is a failure"
 
-Brady Hoke
 
John Cooper was run out of Ohio for 1 loss seasons that included losing to Michigan. And he's in the college football HOF. 
<message edited by MichFan4Life on Tuesday, May 06, 2014 7:34 PM>
 
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#9
MichFan4Life

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Re:On expectations... Tuesday, May 06, 2014 7:48 PM (permalink)
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Here's another question, what exactly was the point of firing Rich Rod if the payoff is winning 7-8 games with losses to Ohio State and Sparty?
 
We could have kept Rich and "accomplished" that.........
 
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BigHouseFootball

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Re:On expectations... Tuesday, May 06, 2014 8:57 PM (permalink)
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The point of firing RR was that we were getting killed by Ohio, MSU, Wisconsin, and pretty much anyone with a pulse. Under Hoke we are in every game and are competitive. Isn't the KSU loss the worst under Hoke? Now before you all jump on me, yes, a loss is a loss whether it is by 1 point or 30. And no, we shouldn't be happy with just being in games. However, we were getting destroyed by teams before. The gap is closing.

Look at the schedule. Hoke should run the table at home, that's 7 wins. Rutgers and northwestern need to be wins, that's 9 right there. Then you have the three rivals on the road. ND is the best chance to get a win. Then I would say Ohio is the next best shot, and MSU being the longest shot. But, if Hoke can win one of the three that's your 10 win season.

Regardless Hoke's fate will be determined by his record.
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WolvyMike

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Re:On expectations... Tuesday, May 06, 2014 9:14 PM (permalink)
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The loss to PSU is Hokes worst loss, IMO.  Inexcusable to lose that game.

 
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zjgm02

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Re:On expectations... Tuesday, May 06, 2014 9:36 PM (permalink)
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WolvyMike


The loss to PSU is Hokes worst loss, IMO.  Inexcusable to lose that game.

You can't swing a dead cat without hitting a horrible loss from last year.  Iowa was pathetic--a 14-point first half lead squandered while mustering maybe 50 yards in the entire second half (and less than 160 total).  Being mahandled by Sparty and held to -48 yards rushing while losing 29-6 and failing to score a TD against MSU for the second time in three tries.  The effort against Nebraska was laughable who pretty much blitzed on every play for the second year in a row with success, zero TDs in regulation against a NW team that had long ago packed up their season and gone home, and, as you already pointed out, PSU, but all the while Al was doing a good job.
 
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MichFan4Life

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Re:On expectations... Tuesday, May 06, 2014 10:05 PM (permalink)
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There is the illusion that many of these games are closer because the other team isn't scoring as much as they did in the Rich Rod days. We've simply reversed the side of the ball we suck on, we're no more in these games than we were before.
 
We haven't crossed the goal line against Sparty in 2 years, we've crossed the goal line once against Nebraska is 2 years. What's worse, we're comparing 4 and 5 loss Nebraska and Iowa teams that are beating Hoke's crew to ranked Wisconsin, Iowa, Penn St, and Ohio St teams from the 2008-2010 period.
 
But yeah, let's keep telling ourselves the gap is closing.
<message edited by MichFan4Life on Wednesday, May 07, 2014 7:24 AM>
 
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Maize927

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Re:On expectations... Wednesday, May 07, 2014 12:23 AM (permalink)
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Please stop trying to compare the much softer current Big Ten to the Big Ten from 4-6 years ago.

Ohio State (while their record has been up there the last 2 seasons) is not as good as the Tressel teams from 08-10.

Wisconsin has been the best overall Big Ten team from 2010-2013.....Hoke never played them.

Iowa's record the 3 seasons RR was there was 28-11. Iowa in Hoke's tenure 19-19 (for you non math majors, that is a drop off of 3 wins per year) .

Penn State was never on Hoke's schedule until this season (and we got to see how that worked out).

We have 1 combined TDs in our last 2 meetings with Nebraska (whose D sucks) and MSU (more understandable). 1 TD in a combined 4 games against those 2 opponents.


 
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WolvyMike

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Re:On expectations... Wednesday, May 07, 2014 7:25 AM (permalink)
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So basically, as the B1G gets softer, so do we.

 
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Re:On expectations... Wednesday, May 07, 2014 7:56 AM (permalink)
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ScottsdaleBlue


If Hoke fails…it makes DB look bad so he’s going to give him every opportunity to succeed at Michigan (and that’s probably why we saw so many coaching changes this off-season). Hoke at best has been a .500 coach at Michigan (and everywhere for that matter). That 11-2 season was a couple hail mary’s away from being 8-5. If he doesn’t get himself to somewhere in the 9/10/11 win range over the next couple years and start developing players….Brandon will fire his ass.

Go Blue!!

 
Come on, Scottsdale. You're smarter than to play that card. If we want to go that route, 2012 was 3 plays from being 11-2. Now 2013 on the other hand 
"Character wins in life and character wins on the football field." — Michigan coach Brady Hoke. 
 
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MichFan4Life

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Re:On expectations... Wednesday, May 07, 2014 8:24 AM (permalink)
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We were 3 plays away from being 4-8 last year
 
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MattyGoBlue!

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Re:On expectations... Wednesday, May 07, 2014 9:59 AM (permalink)
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MichFan4Life


There is the illusion that many of these games are closer because the other team isn't scoring as much as they did in the Rich Rod days. We've simply reversed the side of the ball we suck on, we're no more in these games than we were before.
 
We haven't crossed the goal line against Sparty in 2 years, we've crossed the goal line once against Nebraska is 2 years. What's worse, we're comparing 4 and 5 loss Nebraska and Iowa teams that are beating Hoke's crew to ranked Wisconsin, Iowa, Penn St, and Ohio St teams from the 2008-2010 period.
 
But yeah, let's keep telling ourselves the gap is closing.

 
At least the mastermind behind that abysmal offense we all were witness to has been kicked to the curb and there is the hope that Nuss can actually breathe life back into our offense that was left for dead by one Al Borges...

 

GO BLUE!!!

 
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MichFan4Life

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Re:On expectations... Wednesday, May 07, 2014 10:47 AM (permalink)
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MattyGoBlue!


MichFan4Life


There is the illusion that many of these games are closer because the other team isn't scoring as much as they did in the Rich Rod days. We've simply reversed the side of the ball we suck on, we're no more in these games than we were before.

We haven't crossed the goal line against Sparty in 2 years, we've crossed the goal line once against Nebraska is 2 years. What's worse, we're comparing 4 and 5 loss Nebraska and Iowa teams that are beating Hoke's crew to ranked Wisconsin, Iowa, Penn St, and Ohio St teams from the 2008-2010 period.

But yeah, let's keep telling ourselves the gap is closing.


At least the mastermind behind that abysmal offense we all were witness to has been kicked to the curb and there is the hope that Nuss can actually breathe life back into our offense that was left for dead by one Al Borges...

Kinda like how Scott Shaffer was kicked to the curb?
 
Now I think Nuss is a better hire than Greg Robinson was (though Robinson turned around the Texas defense in a just a few weeks last year) but the parallel remains the same. The DC was never the issue for Rich Rod IMO, it was the position coaches and overall lack of leadership/development. Which basically mirrors the issues we have right now with the current team IMO.
 
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