Here's where I see the Wolverines winding up game by game. Of course injuries, suspensions and other factors can totally screw things up.
-Western Michigan: Even though this is a typical Directional State schedule filler I like this game and the San Diego State game because those games will give us good early tests of Michigan's defense. The Broncos and Aztecs give multiple looks and have quality receiving corps. If Michigan's defense really has improved significantly, we'll find out pretty quickly. Win, 1-0.
-Notre Dame: The first prime-time game in Michigan Stadium history. The two winningest programs in college football history. Two of the teams with the most to prove this season. A storied rivalry. All of those things and more make this one of the most anticipated games of the season. Michigan has improved if for no other reason than getting rid of Rich Rodriguez and his staff. But there are other reasons Michigan has improved. Both teams really need this game but the Irish have more tools to take it. Brian Kelly inherited a team with some talent and has added to it. Kelly has a history of great second seasons at previous stops and there is no reason to believe he can't do the same in South Bend. This should be a typically close ND-UM game. Michigan can win this night but needs a near-perfect game to do it. Notre Dame has more overall talent on offense and defense, which should carry the night for the Irish. Loss, 1-1.
-Eastern Michigan: Now here is the traditional Directional State non-conference scrimmage. Win, 2-1.
-San Diego State: Hoke gets to play his old team. The Aztecs have some respectable talent and should provide a decent test for the Wolverines. I anticipate this will be a relatively close game because Hoke will go out of his way not to embarrass his former team. And realistically, the Aztecs can pull off an upset, although they shouldn't. If you're betting this game, you're a fool if you don't take the Aztecs and the points, plus the under. Win, 3-1.
-Minnesota: The Goofers have a new coach with not nearly enough talent. This game should not be close. Win, 4-1.
-at Northwestern: The first away game and the second prime-time game. Pat Fitzgerald is earning his keep in Evanston. Over the years the Wildcats are not just replacing talent but adding to it. Over the years the Wolverines and Wildcats have played some memorably sloppy games at Ryan Field in prime time. These are two building teams, fairly even, and I think the advantage goes to the home team. Loss, 4-2.
-at Michigan State: A lot of people think Mark Dantonio has turned the Spartans around. I'm not buying it, at least not yet. The Spartans lost a lot of talent to, well, players using their eligibility up (I mean, really, this is Michigan State and we know they aren't graduating). Dantonio has been scoring some OK recruiting classes but I don't see an overwhelming amount on the field. I think MSU pretty much gave away the progress of the 2010 regular season by turning turtle against Nick Satan and Alabama in the Citrus Bowl on New Year's Day. I think that negated a one-loss regular season and when is the last time you heard Spartans chirping about being co-champions? Let's also not forget the regression of team discipline. The days of Flint Correctional Institute are not yet over in Least Lansing. I think Michigan State will fall back to being a three or four-loss team (which they should have been last year) and are beatable. Hoke knows he needs this win and will pull out all the stops to get it. Michigan State still has more talent but not enough brains against a Hoke-coached team. Win for Michigan, 5-2, and at least one Michigan State unsportsmanlike conduct penalty will help decide this game.
-Purdue: Homecoming against another team with a new coach and not nearly enough talent. Tiller did not leave this team stocked very well. Win, 6-2.
-at Iowa: I keep reading Iowa should have a good team this year but I have no idea why. The Hawkeyes had the inside shot for the Big Ten championship last year and gave it away. They lost a lot of senior talent and have not had great recruiting classes behind them to replace it. I think this is much like the Northwestern game with two teams that have some talent but plenty of holes too, advantage to the home team. Michigan can definitely win this game but right now I'm not going to call it. Loss, 6-3.
-at Illinois: The Ron Zook Farewell Tour should be well underway by this point of the season. Michigan is quite capable of giving him a fitting sendoff. If things go the way they should, this could even be the game that seals his fate. Win, 7-3.
-Nebraska: Their first visit to Michigan Stadium. The Huskers should be a force in the Big Ten/Eleven/Twelve this year. The big question is how will they fare in a conference that plays defense? If things go well for both teams, this game could decide the division title. I think the Huskers have a bit too much for the Wolverines to handle, and I don't see where Nebraska will be fazed by the Big House. Loss, 7-4.
-Ohio State: There are oh so many questions from Columbus. Who will be coaching by then? Who will be eligible to play by then? Will the NCAA actually have 'na ds enough to give the Buckeyes the sanctions they deserve? We already know the Buckeyes will be missing some substantial senior leadership and if the NCAA really drops the hammer, several more tuos players could be off the team by November. All the variables will have to play out but I think tuos will lose more players and will still be in a state of flux through the season. Win, 8-4, no Big Ten championship game but a trip to Florida on New Year's Day should be an earned reward this year.